| | 黑色产业数据每日监测（4.16） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主力合约收盘价 涨跌 涨跌幅 现货价格 | | 基差 | | 螺纹 | 3093 -33 -1.06% | 3180 | 87 | | 热卷 | 3205 -34 -1.05% | 3260 | 55 | | 铁矿 | 708 -1 -0.14% | 766 | 58 | | 焦煤 | 966 -25 -2.52% | 1030 | 64 | | 焦炭 | 1558.5 4 0.26% | 1404 | -154.5 | | | 市场概况 | | | | | 今日黑色系商品期货表现继续偏弱，焦煤主力合约切换，焦炭预计明天切换 | | | | | 主力合约。螺纹收于3093元/吨，下跌1.06%；热卷主力合约收于3205元/吨， | | | | | 下跌1.05%；铁矿今日主力合约收于708元/吨，收盘下跌0.14%；双焦今天 | | | | | 2509合约继续大跌。 | | | | | 市场分析 | | | | | 宏观方面数据方面，我国3月金融主要指标增速出现回升，3月末，我国社会 | ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in short-term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the intensity of peak-season demand and changes in domestic and foreign macro policies [1] - The short-term trend of iron ore is expected to be oscillatory, and future attention should be paid to the introduction and implementation of domestic policies [2] - The coke price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] - The coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation [5] - For silicomanganese, it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to short on rebounds [7] Summary by Related Categories Steel - Thread steel demand has a slight month-on-month increase but remains weak year-on-year, with low inventory; hot-rolled coil supply and demand have significantly declined, and the inventory reduction trend has slowed down; the overall blast furnace continues the resumption of production, and pig iron output continues to rise [1] - Domestic demand improvement still takes time, and steel exports in March remained high, but the manufacturing and steel exports face impacts after the US tariff increase; the impact of tariff policies on the market is decreasing, and the market is gradually stabilizing, mainly in short-term oscillation [1] Iron Ore - The global iron ore shipment is in normal fluctuation, and the shipment in April is stronger than the same period last year; the domestic arrival volume has rebounded significantly and is expected to remain at a relatively high level in the short term [2] - The national port inventory of iron ore has decreased significantly, and it may stabilize with the rebound of arrival volume; the demand for finished products is at the top of the stage, and steel mills have slight profits, with a slight resumption of pig iron production [2] - Overseas trade frictions show signs of phased mitigation, and market panic has eased, but there is a risk of recurrence in the future; the short-term iron ore trend is expected to be oscillatory [2] Coke - The first round of price increase has been implemented, but the subsequent momentum for further price increases is poor; the coke price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [3] - Pig iron daily output has a slight increase, coking profit has significantly shrunk, but daily output continues to rise; the overall coke inventory reduction is not smooth and remains at a high level, and the trading procurement enthusiasm has declined [3] - The coke futures premium has been compressed, the price of coal for blast furnace has increased, and there are many macro-variable factors; the price is likely to be weak in the short term [3] Coking Coal - The coking coal price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies; coking coal mines have resumed production, and the output has increased this week, with good spot auction trading volume and a slight increase in trading price [5] - The total coking coal inventory continues to rise, the inventory pressure at the production end continues to decline, and downstream coking plants and steel mills only have rigid demand procurement; the import of Mongolian coal has a weak oscillatory futures price, and high-price resources at the port have weak trading [5] - The supply of carbon elements is still abundant, the downstream pig iron output remains at a high level; the coking coal price is mainly in a weak oscillation, affected by inventory levels and delivery expectations [5] Silicomanganese - A large steel mill in the north increased its silicon manganese procurement volume in April; the silicon manganese price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [6] - The absolute inventory level at Tianjin Port has increased this week, the spot quotation and trading price of manganese ore have continued to decline, and the forward manganese ore price has also decreased [6] - Pig iron output has a slight increase, silicon manganese supply has slightly decreased from a high level, and the overall inventory has significantly increased, suppressing the price; it is recommended to short on rebounds [6] Ferrosilicon - A large steel mill in the north decreased its ferrosilicon procurement volume in April; the ferrosilicon price mainly follows the steel trend due to tariff policies [7] - Pig iron output has a slight increase; export demand generally maintains a month-on-month downward trend, and the marginal impact is small; the output of magnesium metal has decreased, and the secondary demand is average, with overall marginal decline in demand [7] - Ferrosilicon supply has decreased, the market trading level is average, and the on-balance-sheet inventory has increased; its fundamentals are weak, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rebound in social financing growth and the importance of monitoring tariff developments, particularly in relation to the U.S. trade policies and their impact on various sectors [1][2][3]. Financial Sector - In the stock index, the electronic sector led the gains following Trump's exemption of electronic products from "reciprocal tariffs," with total market turnover reaching 1.39 trillion yuan. The financing balance increased by 2.756 billion yuan to 1.802312 trillion yuan [2][8]. - The A-share market has shown resilience against downward pressure from tariffs, with implied volatility significantly decreasing, indicating improved market confidence [2][8]. Energy Sector - In the oil market, the SC futures rose by 1.59%. The U.S. Energy Information Administration downgraded global oil demand forecasts, while Trump announced a staggering 145% tariff on the second-largest economy and largest oil importer [3][10]. - The Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 was significantly reduced to $67.87 per barrel from a previous estimate of $74.22 [3][10]. Precious Metals - Gold prices continue to strengthen, reaching historical highs due to escalating trade tensions and market uncertainties. The market anticipates potential quantitative easing and interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [4][18]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs and inflationary pressures has further propelled gold's strong performance [4][18]. Agricultural Products - In the agricultural sector, the U.S. temporarily suspended tariffs on certain countries, leading to a rebound in soybean prices. The USDA report did not adjust key figures for U.S. soybean production, but raised the crushing data to 2.42 billion bushels [29][30]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index experienced fluctuations, with the SCFI for the European line showing a slight increase. However, the overall demand for container shipping is expected to decline due to the impact of Trump's tariff policies [31].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. The output of rebar continues to rise, inventory declines for the sixth consecutive week with a narrowing decline, and apparent demand rebounds slightly. The market is currently focused on the new round of global trade wars, weakening the impact of fundamental factors [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. The shipping volume from Australia has declined, while that from Brazil has continued to rise, and the global shipping volume has decreased. The demand for iron ore has increased, and the inventory at ports has decreased. The price is also significantly affected by overseas macro - news [1]. - The coking coal market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious. Although the coke enterprises' operating rate is high, the profit of coke enterprises is being compressed, and the price increase of coke has been temporarily shelved [1]. - The coke market is expected to consolidate with fluctuations. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline. The demand from steel mills is mainly based on on - demand procurement [1]. - The manganese silicon market is expected to trade sideways. The supply is gradually decreasing, but the improvement in terminal demand still takes time. The price of manganese ore is weakening, and the cost support is limited. Market sentiment has a significant impact [3]. - The ferrosilicon market is expected to trade in a range. The supply is decreasing, which provides support for the price, but the demand from steel mills is limited. Market sentiment is the dominant factor [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views Steel - Rebar: The rebar futures contract 2510 closed at 3139 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton or 1.65% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 749 lots in positions. The spot price rebounded, and the trading volume increased. This week, the national rebar output increased by 3.72 tons week - on - week to 232.37 tons, social inventory decreased by 27.85 tons to 563.1 tons, and factory inventory increased by 7.54 tons to 214.66 tons. Apparent demand increased by 2.99 tons to 252.68 tons [1]. Iron Ore - The main iron ore futures contract i2509 closed at 707 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton or 2.6% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 600,000 lots and a decrease of 7,000 lots in positions. The spot price at ports increased. The shipping volume from Australia decreased, while that from Brazil increased, and the global shipping volume decreased. The number of blast furnaces in production increased, iron - making output increased by 1.49 tons to 240.22 tons, and the daily consumption of imported ore increased by 2.46 tons. The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 112.39 tons to 14,831.02 tons [1]. Coking Coal - The coking coal futures contract 2505 closed at 913 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton or 0.44% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9,842 lots in positions. The spot price in Shanxi increased, and the Mongolian coal market was stable. Mainstream large mines are operating normally, but downstream procurement is cautious [1]. Coke - The coke futures contract 2505 closed at 1550.5 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton or 1.77% from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 1,812 lots in positions. The spot price at ports was stable. The cost of coking coal has increased, some coke enterprises are expected to reduce production due to losses, and the inventory at coke enterprises has continued to decline [1]. Manganese Silicon - On Thursday, the manganese silicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5966 yuan/ton, up 1.53% month - on - month, with a decrease of 22,561 lots in positions to 292,600 lots. The market price of 6517 manganese silicon was 5650 - 5900 yuan/ton. The supply is gradually decreasing, and the price of manganese ore is weakening [3]. Ferrosilicon - On Thursday, the ferrosilicon futures price strengthened with fluctuations, and the main contract closed at 5900 yuan/ton, up 0.65% month - on - month, with an increase of 3,601 lots in positions. The market price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon was about 5550 - 5700 yuan/ton. The supply is decreasing, and the demand from steel mills is limited [3]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads**: The 5 - 10 spread of rebar was - 78.0, down 3.0; the 5 - 10 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 20.0, down 2.0; the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 47.5, up 4.5; the 5 - 9 spread of coke was - 37.5, up 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of coking coal was - 97.5, down 9.5; the 5 - 9 spread of manganese silicon was - 90.0, down 6.0; the 5 - 9 spread of ferrosilicon was 6.0, down 12.0 [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of rebar 05 contract was 109.0, down 8.0; the basis of hot - rolled coil 05 contract was 45.0, down 5.0; the basis of iron ore 05 contract was 52.6, down 0.5; the basis of coke 05 contract was - 69.8, down 27.0; the basis of coking coal 05 contract was 257.0, up 4.0; the basis of manganese silicon 05 contract was - 166.0, down 2.0; the basis of ferrosilicon 05 contract was - 224.0, unchanged [4]. - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3170.0, up 40.0; the spot price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3280.0, up 40.0; the spot price of PB powder was 761.0, up 20.0; the spot price of Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke was 1330.0, unchanged; the spot price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1250.0, unchanged; the spot price of manganese silicon in Ningxia was 5650.0, up 50.0; the spot price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia was 5600.0, unchanged [4]. - **Profits and Spreads**: The rebar futures profit was 154.2, up 7.8; the long - process profit was 17.2, up 4.1; the short - process profit was - 56.8, up 51.1; the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread was 116.0, down 4.0; the rebar - iron ore ratio was 4.4, down 0.04; the rebar - coke ratio was 2.0, unchanged; the coking coal - iron ore ratio was 1.7, up 0.04; the coke - iron ore ratio was 2.2, down 0.02; the manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread was 22.0, down 22.0 [4]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][9][10][12][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [17][18][20][24]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of 05 - 10, 10 - 01, 05 - 09, 09 - 01 contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [26][29][33][36][37][40][41]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron ore ratio, coking coal - iron ore ratio, and manganese silicon - ferrosilicon spread [43][45][47]. - **Rebar Profits**: There are charts showing the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar [48][52]. 4. Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng, the current assistant director of the Everbright Futures Research Institute and the director of black research, has nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [54]. - Zhang Xiaojin, the current director of resource product research at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has rich experience in the field of power coal research [54]. - Liu Xi, a master of science, is a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, specializing in fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial chain data [54]. - Zhang Chunjie, a black researcher at the Everbright Futures Research Institute, has experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures operations [55].

观点与策略 2025年04月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 | 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产地陆续停产，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 焦煤：震荡偏弱 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求改善，价格探涨 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 11 日 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo025993@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang015104@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌( ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is highly volatile due to the uncertainty of the trade war, and investors are advised to pay close attention to Sino - US policy changes and adopt a cautious approach in the short term [16]. - Gold prices have reached a new high, driven by the decline in market trust in the US dollar's credit due to the US government's erratic tariff policies [2]. - In the bond market, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [20]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, the supply of soybeans in South America is expected to be abundant, which will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal; the production of Malaysian palm oil is recovering, but international demand is still weak [25][28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US March unadjusted CPI rose 2.4% year - on - year, lower than expected. The US government's 3 - month budget deficit decreased by 32% year - on - year. Gold prices rose more than 3% to a new high, and the US dollar index fell 2%. The market is mainly trading based on tariff issues, and short - term market volatility remains high [12][13]. - Investment advice: Gold shows strength, but be aware of increased market volatility [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The China Small and Medium - Sized Enterprises Development Index in the first quarter reached the highest level since 2020. The Ministry of Commerce organized enterprise symposiums to help foreign - trade enterprises expand domestic sales. The market's upward momentum was slightly weak, and short - term risk - aversion is recommended [15][16]. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - aversion approach in the short term [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 65.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 157.5 billion yuan on the day. Positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [18][20]. - Investment advice: Currently, positive spread strategies are recommended, and the strategy of steepening the yield curve can be gradually considered [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The US weekly export sales report of soybeans was lower than expected. CONAB raised the forecast of Brazil's soybean production, and USDA lowered the ending inventory of US soybeans in the 24/25 season. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the large future soybean imports will put pressure on the spot and basis of soybean meal [22][25]. - Investment advice: Pay close attention to the CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans and the cost of importing Brazilian soybeans into China [25]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 10 increased by 29.29% month - on - month. The ending inventory in March increased by 3.52% month - on - month. The report data is slightly bearish for the market. In the long - term, the price of palm oil still depends on the production and export, as well as the price of international diesel and US soybean oil [26][28]. - Investment advice: Focus on production and export in the long - term, and be aware of the short - term impact of Indian replenishment [29]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The lowest bid price of Indonesian Q3800 power plants is 458 yuan/ton. The coal price is expected to be stable in April and may be supported in May, but lacks upward elasticity [31]. - Investment advice: The supply and demand are weak in April, and the price is expected to change little [31]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Global blast furnace steel mills' pig iron production in March increased by 13.0% month - on - month. The demand for steel is seasonally weakening, and the fundamentals of iron ore are still weak. A short - selling strategy is recommended [32]. - Investment advice: Maintain a short - selling position and sell on rebounds [32]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The construction machinery industry may enter a new replacement cycle. The inventory reduction of five major steel products has slowed down. The market sentiment has eased, but the rebound space is limited [33][35]. - Investment advice: Be cautious with light positions in the short term and pay attention to hedging opportunities in the spot market [36]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The downstream startup rate of starch has declined. The inventory has only slightly decreased due to poor downstream demand. The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to fluctuate around the normal processing fee of 380 [37][38]. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 spread is expected to remain stable [38]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The total corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises has slightly decreased. The outflow of grain sources in the Northeast has accelerated, and the inventory in North ports has declined for two consecutive weeks. The 07 contract is considered undervalued [39][40]. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to weather in North China and inventory reduction in the Northeast [40]. 3.2.8 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The average retail price of sugar in Pakistan has exceeded the government - set limit. The production of sugar in India's Maharashtra state has decreased. Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of April decreased by 63.85% year - on - year. The macro - environment dominates the sugar market, and the price is expected to be volatile [41][44]. - Investment advice: Domestic sugar prices are resistant to decline, but the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and pay attention to the support level of 18 cents in the external market [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Hogs) - A major shareholder of Juxing Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. reduced its holdings. The near - term contract of hogs fell, and the long - term contract rose. Speculators are advised to operate cautiously, and the industry can consider hedging opportunities [46]. - Investment advice: Speculators should be cautious, and the industry can consider hedging [47]. 3.2.10 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of coking coal in the Northwest market is stable. The futures market is affected by the international trade situation and US tariffs, while the spot market is mainly affected by domestic fundamentals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [48]. - Investment advice: The futures and spot markets may deviate, and the short - term trend is volatile [48]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead has slightly decreased. The price of lead is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended in the short term, and a long - position strategy can be considered in the medium term [49][50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term and consider a long - position strategy in the medium term [50]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME0 - 3 zinc is at a discount of 12.23 US dollars/ton. The inventory has decreased. The price is expected to be under pressure in the long term. A short - selling strategy around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton is recommended [51][52]. - Investment advice: Short - sell around 22800 - 23000 yuan/ton and consider a long - term positive spread strategy when the time is right [52]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Panama's government confirmed that First Quantum Minerals withdrew its arbitration application. Global copper smelting activity decreased in March. China's copper demand in the second quarter is strong. The short - term strategy for copper can be bullish, but beware of the risk of repeated expectations [53][57]. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish strategy in the short term but be cautious of repeated expectations [57]. 3.2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Sayona and Piedmont plan to merge. Liontown started the production of Australia's first underground lithium mine. The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price is expected to decline in the long term [58][60]. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking for short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [60]. 3.2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - GEM and South Korea's ECOPRO signed a strategic cooperation agreement. The price of nickel has rebounded. The short - term macro - sentiment has eased, and investors are advised to pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [61][63]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - position opportunities at low valuations [63]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of Chinese LPG has increased slightly, and the inventory of sample enterprises has increased slightly while the port inventory has decreased. The market is in a repricing stage, and the volatility is high [65][66]. - Investment advice: Reduce risk exposure and be cautious [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon trading market is inactive, and the price has fallen to 85 yuan/ton. The carbon market in 2025 may be weak, while the CCER market is strong [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. The supply is likely to return, and the demand lacks upward momentum. The Nymex natural gas price is under downward pressure [70]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price has a downward pressure [71]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand is average. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of some imported wood pulp has declined. The short - term market is dominated by macro factors [73]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder has rebounded, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The short - term market is difficult to predict due to high macro - influence [75]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The downstream start - up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased, and the market lacks confidence. The price is mainly affected by crude oil in the short term [77]. - Investment advice: The short - term absolute price mainly fluctuates with the crude oil price [79]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. A short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended in the medium term [80][81]. - Investment advice: Short - sell on rebounds in the medium term [81]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market has slightly decreased. The short - term price is expected to be low, and long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks can be considered [82]. - Investment advice: Consider long - position opportunities on significant pullbacks [83]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotations of bottle chip factories have increased. The price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices in the short term, and the processing fee fluctuates in a low - level range [84][86]. - Investment advice: The short - term price is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and oil prices [86].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in CPI and PPI, highlighting the need for policy intervention to support price recovery, with a focus on core inflation rather than overall inflation [1][5]. Group 1: CPI Analysis - CPI year-on-year decline narrowed from -0.7% in February to -0.1% in March, exceeding expectations of -0.2%, with food prices contributing negatively [1][6]. - Food prices fell significantly, with fresh vegetables and pork prices decreasing by 5.1% and 4.4% respectively, driven by improved supply and seasonal factors [2][3]. - Core inflation showed resilience, increasing by 0.5% year-on-year, with industrial consumer goods prices rising by 0.5% month-on-month [2][3]. Group 2: PPI Analysis - PPI year-on-year decline widened from -2.2% to -2.5%, and month-on-month decline increased from -0.1% to -0.4%, influenced by international factors and domestic production recovery [3][4]. - High-tech industries experienced positive price changes, with wearable device manufacturing prices rising by 4.6% [3][4]. - Prices in the black metal and non-metal mineral industries decreased due to faster production recovery compared to demand [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Implications - Recent tariff policies from the U.S. may negatively impact global demand and consequently affect China's demand [5]. - The government has emphasized the importance of price governance, indicating potential reforms in public utility pricing and market behavior regulation [5]. - The focus for this year should be on core inflation recovery, necessitating proactive policy measures to stimulate demand and support price stabilization [5].

2025年04月10日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：低位反复 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：低位反复 | 3 | | 硅铁：主产地陆续停产，硅铁价格支撑 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，锰硅偏弱震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：超跌修复 | 7 | | 焦煤：超跌修复 | 7 | | 动力煤：需求改善，价格探涨 | 9 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 2025 年 4 月 10 日 铁矿石：主力切换，依然弱势震荡 | 张广硕 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 | zhangguangshuo025993@gtjas.com | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 马亮 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012837 | maliang015104@gtjas.com | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌( ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Today, affected by the global market shock, black - series commodity futures fell collectively. Currently, steel mills are still in the resumption cycle, which provides some support for iron ore prices in the short term. However, considering that trade frictions will significantly impact market risk appetite and finished - product valuations, the progress of steel mill resumption may slow down further, and iron ore may have a large correction space. Meanwhile, the market has begun to expect relevant policies to support domestic demand, which may interfere with unilateral trading [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Overview - The closing prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coking coal, and coke all decreased. Rebar closed at 3083 yuan/ton, down 2.59%; hot - rolled coil closed at 3261 yuan/ton, down 3.06%; iron ore closed at 762.5 yuan/ton, down 3.36%; coking coal and coke also closed weakly [1]. Market Analysis Demand - Last week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.02%. The steel mill profitability rate was 55.41%, a week - on - week increase of 1.73% and a year - on - year increase of 22.08%. The daily average pig iron output was 238.73 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.45 million tons. Terminal demand increased month - on - month, and the resumption of steel mill blast furnaces continued, supporting the actual demand for iron ore. However, due to recent global trade friction escalation, the market is not optimistic about the future steel mill production expectations [1]. Supply - From March 31 to April 6, the total iron ore shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 23.93 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.548 million tons. The volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.531 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.739 million tons. The latest arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 23.591 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.132 million tons. The overseas ore shipment decreased month - on - month, and the arrival volume continued to decline. The iron ore supply tightened slightly, which may support the futures price. The port iron ore inventory decreased, and the port clearance volume increased, which also had a positive impact on the market sentiment. Overall, the current iron ore supply pressure has eased slightly [1]. Investment Advice - Iron ore: Pay attention to supply - demand changes and inventory conditions, and avoid chasing high prices [1]. - Rebar: Investors are advised to take a volatile approach in the short term and pay attention to the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar [1]. - Hot - rolled coil: Investors are advised to take a high - level consolidation approach in the short term and pay attention to supply - demand changes [1]. - Coking coal and coke: Pay attention to the sideways market after the decline stabilizes or the strength - weakness relationship between the two [1]. Summary - Currently, steel mills are in the resumption cycle, which supports iron ore prices in the short term. But due to trade frictions, the steel mill resumption progress may slow down, and iron ore may correct significantly. It is recommended to operate with a light position and caution [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the recent tariff measures implemented by the Trump administration, highlighting the potential impacts on macroeconomic conditions, financial markets, and various commodity sectors, particularly in the context of rising inflation and economic slowdown [3][4][5]. Group 1: Macroeconomic and Financial Market Impacts - The overall policy is hawkish but includes some buffer measures, such as exemptions for certain goods and a staggered implementation timeline [5]. - The market reaction to the announcement included declines in U.S. stock futures, lower U.S. Treasury yields, depreciation of the offshore RMB, and fluctuations in gold prices [5]. - The shift towards a stagflation trading logic is noted, with high tariffs and potential retaliatory measures exacerbating the macroeconomic landscape of "slowing growth + stubborn inflation" [5][6]. - The U.S. may consider further tax cuts and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve to alleviate economic pressure [6]. Group 2: Commodity Market Impacts Non-ferrous and Precious Metals - The unexpected tariffs signify an acceleration of the de-globalization process, impacting both domestic and global demand levels [10]. - Copper is expected to remain supported due to its exemption from tariffs, while aluminum faces significant import reliance and high tariffs already imposed [11]. - Gold has been exempted from tariffs, but market volatility is anticipated due to economic uncertainties [13]. Energy - The tariff measures do not apply to imported crude oil and natural gas, mitigating potential cost increases for energy imports [15]. - The overall impact on oil demand is expected to be negative due to heightened global economic pressures from the trade war [16]. Chemicals - The tariffs are likely to negatively impact China's chemical exports, particularly in textiles and plastics, as the U.S. is a major market [22][24]. - The overall sentiment in the chemical sector is bearish, with potential declines in exports to the U.S. and increased costs for producers [26]. Black Metals - China's steel exports to the U.S. are minimal, but indirect impacts through third-party countries could affect pricing and demand [28]. - The overall steel market is expected to face pressure from U.S. tariffs, particularly on hot-rolled products [28]. Agricultural Products - The tariffs primarily affect U.S. corn exports, with minimal impact on China's domestic corn prices due to self-sufficiency [29]. - China's soybean imports are increasingly sourced from Brazil, reducing the impact of U.S. tariffs on supply chains [30]. - The tariffs on canola oil and palm oil are expected to create supply chain disruptions and price volatility in the respective markets [31][32]. Soft Commodities - The cotton market is likely to face downward pressure due to reduced competitiveness in textile exports to the U.S. [35][36]. - The rubber market may also experience negative impacts from reduced tire exports to the U.S. [37].