石油沥青日报 | 2025-07-01 终端需求偏弱，现货观望情绪浓厚 市场分析 1、6月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2509合约下午收盘价3564元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨5元/吨，涨幅 0.14%；持仓235183手，环比下降2094手，成交165052手，环比上涨10908手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3900—4086元/吨；山东，3620—4030元/吨；华南，3600—3750元/吨； 华东，3650—3800元/吨。 昨日西北以及华南市场沥青现货价格大体企稳，其余地区沥青现货价格均出现不同幅度下跌，沥青盘面则延续震 荡态势，成本端支撑随地缘局势缓和而边际转弱。就沥青自身基本面而言，多空因素交织，缺乏突出矛盾。具体 来看，整体供需两弱格局延续，库存维持低位。原油价格大幅回落后，炼厂生产成本有所修复，炼厂生产积极性 增强，或带动沥青产能利用率增加。与此同时，天气与资金因素制约下，沥青刚性需求缺乏亮点，情绪仍较为谨 慎，整体市场驱动不足。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价震荡运行，其中WTI 8月合约收盘下跌0.41美元至65.11 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.63%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.16 美元至 67.61 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.24%。SC2508 以 497.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 1.5 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.30%。四位 OPEC+代表透露该联盟计划 8 月增产 | | | | 41.1 万桶/日，此前 5 月、6 月和 7 月已实施同等规模的增产。 | | | | OPEC+将于 7 月 6 日召开会议，这将是该组织自 4 月开始逐步退 | | | | 出减产以来的第五次月度增产。市场再度计价欧佩克增产预期， | | | 原油 | 但整体仍较为温和。油价已回落至 6 月 13 日以色列首次袭击伊朗 | 震荡 | | | 之前的水平附近，市场焦点重新转向供需平衡。除了 OPEC+可能 | | | | 增产，这可能会加剧今年晚些时候供过于求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The polyester industry chain currently has an unfavorable demand outlook and generally fluctuates with costs. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On June 30, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $65.11 per barrel, down 0.63% from the previous value; the futures settlement price (continuous) of Brent crude oil was $67.61 per barrel, down 0.24% [1]. - **Upstream**: On June 27, 2025, the spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan was $569.75 per ton, up 0.18%; the spot price (mid - price) of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB South Korea was $728.50 per ton, up 0.41%. On June 30, the spot price of p - xylene PX CFR China's main port was $874 per ton, up 0.85% [1]. - **PTA**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,798 yuan per ton, up 0.42%; the settlement price was 4,824 yuan per ton, up 1.17%. The spot price of domestic PTA was 5,047 yuan per ton, up 0.52% [1]. - **PX**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,796 yuan per ton, up 0.65%; the settlement price was 6,826 yuan per ton, up 1.46%. The spot price of domestic p - xylene was 6,836 yuan per ton, unchanged [1]. - **PR**: On June 30, 2025, the closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,936 yuan per ton, up 0.03%; the settlement price was 5,956 yuan per ton, up 0.47%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market was 6,040 yuan per ton, down 0.17% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On June 30, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,950 yuan per ton, down 1.10%; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,325 yuan per ton, down 0.68%; the CCFEI price index of polyester short - fiber was 6,765 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [2]. Spread Information - On June 30, 2025, the near - far month spread of PTA was 192 yuan per ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the basis was 252 yuan per ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The PXN spread was $304.25 per ton, up 2.12%; the PX - MX spread was $145.50 per ton, up 3.07% [1]. Production and Sales Information - On June 30, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 31%, down 19 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 40%, down 14 percentage points; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 70%, up 8 percentage points [1]. Device Information - Dongying United's 2.5 million - ton PTA device was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. Yisheng New Materials' 3.3 million - ton PTA device reduced its load by about 50% around June 15 and has now returned to normal. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA device is expected to undergo technological transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. Important News - International crude oil prices fluctuated significantly recently, affecting the trend of PX. The risk premium has been fully reversed, and the PX price is close to the level before the rally. The fundamentals of PX are better than those of PTA, and the rigid demand provides effective support. PTA will have new device put into operation in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in time. Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, so the bottom support is relatively stable [2]. - The PX market was strong during the session, and the cost supported PTA. However, due to concerns about downstream polyester production cuts, the PTA spot basis weakened. After the conflict ended, the oil price reversed the risk premium, and polyester products will follow the decline. The absolute value of PTA inventory is in a downward channel, but the relative value is at a near - five - year high, and the situation of strong near - term and weak far - term is difficult to change [2].

来源：CCF，同花顺 iFinD，S&P Global，国泰君安期货研究 期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 01 日 对二甲苯：供需偏紧，单边震荡偏强 PTA：单边偏强震荡，月差走弱 MEG：低库存，不追空，月差走强 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin@gtht.com | 期货 | PX 主力 | PTA 主力 | MEG 主力 | PF 主力 | SC 主力 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日收盘价 | 6796 | 4798 | 4267 | 6542 | 496.7 | | 涨跌 | 44 | 20 | -4 | 16 | -1.8 | | 涨跌幅 | 0.65% | 0.42% | -0.09% | 0.25% | -0.36% | | 月差 | PX9-1 | PTA9-1 | MEG9-1 | PF8-9 | SC8-9 | | 昨日收盘价 | 194 | 144 | -27 | 78 | 7.2 | | 前日收盘价 | 206 | 172 | -43 | 80 | 7.3 | | 涨跌 | -12 | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) Dalian Petrochemical Company is undergoing a significant transformation by ceasing operations at its old facility and accelerating the development of an integrated refining and chemical project, which will enhance the urban space in Dalian and support the creation of a vibrant coastal bay area [1][2] - The Dalian Petrochemical Company is a major refining and lubricating oil enterprise in Northeast China, and its relocation and upgrade project is a practical implementation of ecological civilization and high-quality development principles [1] - The project is the first large-scale oil refining relocation initiative in China, aimed at optimizing the petrochemical industry structure in Dalian and promoting the establishment of a modern industrial system [1] Group 2 - The company is focusing on a "green, low-carbon, innovative, efficient, and digitally open" strategy to accelerate the transformation of its refining business, planning to build a 10 million tons/year refining and 1.2 million tons/year ethylene facility [2] - This project will enable the Dalian Petrochemical Company to transition into an integrated refining enterprise, significantly altering the refining industry structure in Dalian, Liaoning Province, and the entire Northeast region [2] - The project is expected to elevate the quality of CNPC's refining business and establish Dalian as a landmark petrochemical base in Northeast China [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the second in Huatai Futures' series on the listing of pure benzene, focusing on the domestic supply pattern of pure benzene in China [3] Group 2: China's Pure Benzene Capacity Investment - China still mainly uses petroleum benzene. Before 2019, the proportion of petroleum benzene capacity in benzene capacity was around 65%. After the wave of private large refinery startups in 2019, it has now risen to 75% [11] - Petroleum benzene is the main driver of the growth in the pure benzene supply. In 2025, the growth rate of benzene capacity is expected to be 7.1%, with petroleum benzene at 8.1% and hydrogenated benzene at only 4.2% [12] - The development of China's pure benzene capacity has gone through four stages: slow growth from the 1960s to the 1980s, rapid development in the 1980s, slowdown after 2010, and rapid expansion since 2019 [14][15] - In 2025, there is still pressure on pure benzene capacity investment. The growth rate of new petroleum benzene capacity is 8.1%, slightly higher than 6.6% in 2024. Attention should be paid to the startup rhythm of Yulong in the third quarter [16] - China's petroleum benzene production mainly comes from catalytic reforming, ethylene cracking, and toluene disproportionation. The proportion of catalytic reforming capacity has decreased to 44%, while toluene disproportionation has reached around 22%, and ethylene cracking has dropped to 23% [20] Group 3: China's Pure Benzene Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene supply is mainly dominated by state - owned enterprises, with private enterprises gradually playing an important role. Since 2014, the proportion of private enterprise capacity has been increasing [21] - State - owned enterprises still hold the majority of pure benzene capacity. Sinopec accounts for 25%, PetroChina 17%, and CNOOC 7%. Private refineries such as Zhejiang Petrochemical, Hengli, and Shenghong together account for nearly 24% [22][24] Group 4: Supplier Analysis by Process - For pure benzene produced by the catalytic reforming process, state - owned enterprises such as Sinopec (23%), PetroChina (18%), and CNOOC (5%) are the main suppliers, and private refineries account for 26%. The operation of reforming benzene is mainly planned, following refinery maintenance and profit [31] - For pure benzene produced by the ethylene cracking process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises is higher. Sinopec accounts for 41%, and private refineries account for 14%. The operation depends on ethylene cracking device maintenance and olefin demand [32] - For pure benzene produced by the toluene disproportionation process, the proportion of state - owned enterprises has decreased, and private refineries account for nearly 40%. The operation is flexible, depending on the profit of disproportionation and toluene demand for gasoline blending [33] Group 5: Regional Supply Pattern - China's pure benzene capacity is mainly concentrated in the East China region, accounting for 39%, followed by South China (23%) and Shandong (19%). East China is the main area for production, trade, and paper - based trading of pure benzene [38] Group 6: Hydrogenated Benzene Supply Pattern - In 2024, petroleum benzene production accounted for 71% of China's total pure benzene supply, imports 15%, and hydrogenated benzene 14% [46] - Hydrogenated benzene supply is mainly from private enterprises, and its capacity has grown slowly since 2016. Capacity is concentrated in North China and Shandong, and the industry concentration is relatively low [46][48]

摘要：【图】2025年4月黑龙江省石脑油产量统计分析 2025年1-4月石脑油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前4个月，黑龙江省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量累计达到了29.9万 吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了1.0%，增速较2024年同期低9.9个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同 期全国高2.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量2612.7万吨的比重为1.1%。 图表：黑龙江省石脑油产量分月（累计值）统计 图表：黑龙江省石脑油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 2025年4月石脑油产量分析： 单独看2025年4月份，黑龙江省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量达到了7.1万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，4月份的产量下降了8.7%，增速较2024年同期低15.5个百分点，增速较同期全国低4.3个百分点，约 占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量623.8万吨的比重为1.1%。 石油化工行业最新动态 石油的现状和发展趋势 化工行业现状与发展趋势 日化市场现状及前景分析润滑油市场调研与发展 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Bearish consolidation [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Bearish consolidation [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Short - term bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Glass: Weak rebound [2] - Soda ash: Range - bound rebound [2] - Caustic soda: Range - bound rebound [2] - Methanol: Short - term bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously long [2] - Asphalt: Weak [2] Group 2: Report's Core Views - Crude oil: Oil prices return to fundamental pricing. With the consumption peak season and increasing supply, oil prices are in a consolidation phase. In the long - term, there is an oversupply situation, and prices are expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, prices are weakly oscillating. [1][4] - LPG: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side declines, and LPG is under pressure. [1][5] - L: Transaction slows down, inventory pressure in the upper and middle reaches eases, the cost side of crude oil weakens, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][9] - PP: Warehouse receipts decrease, the parking ratio rises, the cost side of crude oil and methanol falls, and it is advisable to go short on rebounds. [1][12] - PVC: Calcium carbide prices rise, social inventory increases, factory inventory decreases, and it is recommended to go short on rebounds. [1][15] - PX: Domestic and foreign PX device loads are operating at a high level, and there are expectations of both supply and demand increases. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go long at low prices. [1][17] - PTA/PR: Recently, there are many maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. It is recommended to look for opportunities to go short at high prices. [1][20] - Ethylene glycol: The device load increases, the arrival volume is expected to rise, demand is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to look for high - level short - selling opportunities. [1][23] - Glass: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the supply side slightly decreases, and the price has a weak rebound. [2][26] - Soda ash: The weekly operating rate and production decline, and there is a range - bound rebound, but high supply and inventory limit the upside. [2][29] - Caustic soda: There is an expectation of inventory reduction through maintenance, and there is a weak rebound at a low level. [2][32] - Methanol: The port has a high basis, but there is a negative feedback on MTO demand. It is short - term bullish. [2][33] - Urea: The supply pressure is still large, but there are expectations for agricultural demand peak season and exports. It is recommended to be cautiously long. [2] - Asphalt: Geopolitical tensions ease, the cost side of crude oil falls, and it is recommended to go short with a light position. [2] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude oil - **Market review**: On June 27, international oil prices were weakly oscillating. WTI rose 0.43%, Brent rose 0.16%, and SC fell 0.63%. [3] - **Basic logic**: After the US participated in the Israel - Iran conflict on June 23, geopolitical risks eased, and oil prices returned to fundamental pricing. OPEC+ is rumored to increase production by 415,000 barrels per day in August. In terms of supply, Guyana's oil production increased from 611,000 barrels per day in April to 667,000 barrels per day in May. In terms of demand, the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 is 1.29 million barrels per day, lower than 1.3 million barrels per day in May. In terms of inventory, as of the week ending June 20, US crude oil inventory decreased by 5.8 million barrels, strategic crude oil reserve increased by 200,000 barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate oil inventory decreased by 4.1 million barrels. [4] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, due to the tariff war, the impact of new energy, and OPEC+ being in an expansion cycle, there is an oversupply of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate between $60 - 70 per barrel. In the short - term, with the decline of geopolitical risks, oil prices return to supply - demand fundamental pricing, and it is recommended to go short with a light position and buy call options for protection. SC is expected to be in the range of [490 - 510]. [4] LPG - **Market review**: On June 27, the PG main contract closed at 4,256 yuan/ton, down 0.21% month - on - month. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China remained unchanged. [5] - **Basic logic**: Recently, geopolitical risks have declined, the cost side of oil prices has adjusted after squeezing out geopolitical premiums, and LPG has oscillated following the cost side. The PDH device profit decreased by 25 yuan/ton, and the alkylation device profit increased by 25 yuan/ton. The supply of LPG increased, and the demand of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil increased. The refinery inventory and port inventory increased. [6] - **Strategy recommendation**: In the long - term, after the release of geopolitical risks, from the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the center is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to go short with a light position or buy put options. PG is expected to be in the range of [4,170 - 4,300]. [7] L - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of L contracts increased to varying degrees, and the main contract position increased by 2.0%. The spot prices of LL and HD decreased slightly, and the import and production profits changed. The social inventory of PE decreased significantly. [9] - **Basic logic**: With the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the international crude oil price has fallen, and the cost support for polyethylene has weakened. Some previously maintained devices have restarted, and the supply is expected to increase. It is currently the off - season for demand, and the price support is limited. [9] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [10] PP - **Market review**: On June 27, the prices of PP contracts decreased slightly, and the main contract position decreased by 1.0%. The spot prices of PP were mostly stable, and the production and import profits changed. The enterprise and trade inventory of PP decreased. [12] - **Basic logic**: The decline in cost has dampened market sentiment, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The supply side has increased device maintenance, but in the off - season, downstream factories mostly purchase on demand, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been significantly alleviated. [12] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds. Pay attention to the price trends of crude oil and coal and the progress of new capacity addition. [13] PVC - **Market review**: The PVC market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, with the spot supply - demand fundamentals being poor, and the market center remains weak. [15] - **Basic logic**: Calcium carbide prices have risen, social inventory has increased, and factory inventory has decreased. Some device maintenance is expected to end this week, and new maintenance is planned at the end of the month, with production expected to decline. It is the domestic off - season for demand, but exports still have support. There are plans to put into production three sets of devices in the future, and the supply side is under pressure. [15] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short on rebounds and pay attention to the pressure level at integer points. V is expected to be in the range of [4,850 - 5,000]. [15] PX - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PX in East China was 7,145 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,752 (+30) yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 month spread was 206 (+8) yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed. [16] - **Basic logic**: PX profits have continued to improve, and domestic and foreign device loads are operating at a high level. The demand side is expected to improve with the resumption of PTA device production and new capacity addition. The inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years. [17] - **Strategy recommendation**: PX is expected to be in the range of [6,760 - 6,950]. [18] PTA - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of PTA in East China was 5,025 yuan/ton, and the TA09 contract closed at 4,778 (+8) yuan/ton. The TA9 - 1 month spread was 172 (-2) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 247 (-8) yuan/ton. [19] - **Basic logic**: Recently, there are many PTA maintenance devices. Later, with the resumption of production and new capacity addition, supply pressure is expected to increase. Downstream polyester production reduction and terminal weaving operating load continue to decline. Inventory is continuously decreasing, processing fees are high, and the basis is strong. [20] - **Strategy recommendation**: TA is expected to be in the range of [4,780 - 4,910]. [21] Ethylene glycol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,340 (-20) yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4,271 (-22) yuan/ton. The EG9 - 1 month spread was -43 (-9) yuan/ton, and the East China basis was 69 (+2) yuan/ton. [22] - **Basic logic**: Recently, the device load has increased, and although the arrival volume is currently low, it is expected to rise. The demand side is expected to weaken, and the inventory is decreasing but the expectation is narrowing. [23] - **Strategy recommendation**: EG is expected to be in the range of [4,220 - 4,310]. [24] Glass - **Market review**: The spot market price quotes are stable, the price has a weak rebound, the basis narrows, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [25] - **Basic logic**: Supported by domestic macro - policies, the market risk preference has recovered. The glass supply has increased and decreased simultaneously this week, and the overall production remains at a low - level fluctuation. The coal - based production still has profits, and it is difficult to trigger large - scale cold repairs. The fuel price has increased, which has a certain boost to the glass price. [26] - **Strategy recommendation**: FG is expected to be in the range of [1,010 - 1,030], with the 5 - day moving average providing weak support. [26] Soda ash - **Market review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been raised, the price has stabilized, the main contract basis has narrowed, the number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the number of forecasts has increased. [28] - **Basic logic**: Recently, some soda ash devices have reduced their loads, and the overall supply has slightly decreased. However, the industry's operating rate is still at a high level, and the pressure of oversupply in the later period remains. The terminal consumption of soda ash is mediocre, and the glass price is consolidating at a low level, providing general support to the upstream. The manufacturer's inventory continues to accumulate. [29] - **Strategy recommendation**: SA is expected to be in the range of [1,185 - 1,220], with a range - bound rebound. [29] Caustic soda - **Market review**: The spot price of caustic soda remains stable, the price has a weak rebound at a low level, the basis has weakened, and the number of warehouse receipts remains unchanged. [31] - **Basic logic**: On the supply side, due to good chlor - alkali profits, most upstream devices maintain high - load production, and there is an expectation of new capacity addition from June to July. On the demand side, the downstream alumina production has slightly declined, and non - aluminum demand is still weak. The cost support has shifted downwards, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda enterprises has increased. [32] - **Strategy recommendation**: Pay attention to the weak rebound driven by inventory reduction through maintenance. [32] Methanol - **Market review**: On June 27, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,638 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract closed at 2,393 (-24) yuan/ton. The East China basis was 245 (+43) yuan/ton, the port basis was 427 (+79) yuan/ton, the MA9 - 1 month spread was -26 (-10) yuan/ton, and the China - Southeast Asia methanol re - export profit increased to 56 (-4) US dollars/ton. [33] - **Basic logic**: The overall operating load of methanol has increased, and the arrival volume in July may be lower than expected. The demand side has shown negative feedback, and the enterprise inventory has decreased. The port basis is high, and there are still geopolitical military conflict risks. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is short - term bullish. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the 09 contract and look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract. MA is expected to be in the range of [2,380 - 2,460]. [2] Urea - **Basic logic**: Recently, the urea maintenance intensity has increased, and the daily production has decreased briefly. However, in early July, the device is expected to resume production, and the supply pressure remains large. The industrial demand is weak, and the agricultural demand peak season is approaching. The fertilizer export growth rate is relatively fast, and there is still cost support. [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to be cautiously long and pay attention to short - selling opportunities. UR is expected to be in the range of [1,710 - 1,760]. [2] Asphalt - **Basic logic**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, the cost side of crude oil has fallen significantly, the supply has increased, and the inventory has accumulated. The demand shows a pattern of "strong in the north and weak in the south". [2] - **Strategy recommendation**: It is recommended to go short with a light position. BU is expected to be in the range of [3,500 - 3,600]. [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that on June 30, the domestic futures market for crude oil saw an overall increase, with the main crude oil futures rising by over 1% [1] - As of the latest data, the main crude oil futures price decreased by 1.21% to 496.10 yuan per barrel, while other related products such as fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas also experienced slight declines [1][2] - The opening prices for various contracts on June 30 were as follows: SC crude oil at 498.60 yuan, fuel oil at 2997.00 yuan, asphalt at 3561.00 yuan, liquefied petroleum gas at 4254.00 yuan, and low-sulfur fuel oil at 3603.00 yuan [2] Group 2 - As of June 27, commodity warehouse receipts showed that the inventory for medium-sulfur crude oil futures was 5,911,000 barrels, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [3] - The data also indicated that there was a phenomenon of "backwardation" in the market, where the spot prices for fuel oil, asphalt, liquefied petroleum gas, and low-sulfur fuel oil were higher than their futures prices [3] - The basis data revealed the following: for fuel oil, the spot price was 5525 yuan, futures price was 3005 yuan, resulting in a basis of 2520 yuan and a basis rate of 45.61% [3]

7月1日24时，国内成品油零售限价将迎来新一轮调整时间窗口。机构跟踪的国际原油价格变动状况预测 最新数据显示，本轮成品油零售限价上调幅度远超50元/吨的调整红线，预计本轮成品油零售限价将上 调。 目前，距离本轮成品油零售调价窗口开启还有1个工作日。隆众资讯成品油分析师刘炳娟表示，本轮成 品油零售限价或迎来今年以来的第六次上调。 卓创资讯成品油分析师戴田东表示，国内成品油本轮计价周期以来，前期因中东地缘局势紧张，市场对 供应担忧情绪高涨，国际原油价格显著上涨。此后，随着地缘紧张局势逐步降温，市场对中东地区供应 中断的担忧缓解，国际原油价格出现快速回落。虽然原油变化率自正值高位不断回落，但仍处正值范围 内，对应的国内成品油零售限价上调幅度仍满足调价条件。因此，本轮成品油零售限价面临上调，这也 意味着今年以来首个"三连涨"或达成。 卓创资讯监测模型测算显示，截至6月27日收盘，即国内成品油本轮计价周期的第九个工作日，参考的 原油变化率为6%，预计汽柴油价格应上调260元/吨。按照最新价格测算，折合成升价，92号汽油、95 号汽油、0号柴油每升价格将分别上调0.2元、0.22元、0.22元。 2025年以来，国内成品 ...