当前市场对一些优质公司的定价已经非常低，甚至"即使私有化也是非常划算的"。 作者 | 市值风云基金研究部 编辑 | 小白 随着公募基金2025年四季报披露，顶流基金经理的动向再次成为市场焦点。 易方达基金张坤，作为长期价值投资的代表人物，其报告中的每一个数字与每一句观点，都引发了广 泛解读。 旗下四只产品业绩分化 2025年四季度，张坤在管规模降至483亿元，单季度缩水超80亿。 其管理的四只基金业绩呈现出明显的结构性分化，其中三只主投A股的基金表现相对承压，规模最大 的易方达蓝筹精选混合（005827.OF）四季度亏损近9%，跑输业绩基准超6%，25年全年收益不到 7%。 （来源 ： Wind ） 与此同时，部分医药与传媒股也遭到明显减持，比如京东健康被两只基金砍仓约一半，此外，腾讯控 股、分众传媒等也出现在减持名单中。 然而，主投海外的易方达亚洲精选股票（118001.OF）则成为亮点，四季度实现了4.5%的正回报，跑 赢业绩基准超2%，而且该基金25年全年涨幅近42%。 | 序号 | 证券代码 | 证券名称 | > | 基金规模合并值 [交易日期]最新( ... [单位]亿元 | 区间复权单位净值增长率 ...

重仓股配置比例下降 前期涨幅高的收益确认，AI应用标的配置提升 —— 2025Q4传媒持仓分析 行业评级：看好 2026年1月26日 分析师 冯翠婷 电话 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230525010001 2025Q4传媒行业机构持仓情况总结 证券研究报告 1、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，体现为前期涨幅较高的收益确认，AI应用相关标的25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力 2 2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为3.87%，环比下降0.79pcts，高于行业标准配置比例的2.24%；剔除腾讯控股后，2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为 1.49%，环比下降0.53pcts；2025Q4传媒板块行业配置比例明显下降，主要体现为前期涨幅较高的个股的收益确认，但仍然显著超配，部分AI应用相 关标的如【三七互娱】、 【蓝色光标】、【易点天下】等25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力。 2、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，前期涨幅较高的收益确认 传媒行业重仓股规模为1538.73亿元，环比减少345.72亿元，环比下降18.35%。其中前十大重仓股规模合计为1420.55亿 ...

1、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，体现为前期涨幅较高的收益确认，AI应用相关标的25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力 证券研究报告 重仓股配置比例下降 前期涨幅高的收益确认，AI应用标的配置提升 —— 2025Q4传媒持仓分析 行业评级：看好 2026年1月26日 分析师 冯翠婷 电话 fengcuiting@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230525010001 2025Q4传媒行业机构持仓情况总结 2 2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为3.87%，环比下降0.79pcts，高于行业标准配置比例的2.24%；剔除腾讯控股后，2025Q4传媒重仓股配置比例为 1.49%，环比下降0.53pcts；2025Q4传媒板块行业配置比例明显下降，主要体现为前期涨幅较高的个股的收益确认，但仍然显著超配，部分AI应用相 关标的如【三七互娱】、 【蓝色光标】、【易点天下】等25Q4增配明显，为26年1月AI应用行情蓄力。 2、传媒行业重仓股配置环比下降，前期涨幅较高的收益确认 传媒行业重仓股规模为1538.73亿元，环比减少345.72亿元，环比下降18.35%。其中前十大重仓股规模合计为1420.55亿 ...

证券研究报告 | 2026年01月26日 美元债双周报（26 年第 4 周） 弱于大市 地缘风险与财政隐忧下美债利率升至半年新高 美国 11 月 PCE 物价指数符合预期，通胀温和且支出稳健。1 月 22 日美国经 济分析局发布的 11 月 PCE 报告显示，PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，环 比上涨 0.2%，均与市场预期一致，反映通胀温和运行。剔除食品和能源 后的核心 PCE 同比亦上涨 2.8%，环比增长 0.2%，同样符合预期。报告 同时指出，美国个人支出在 11 月保持稳健增长，显示消费者支出依然 是经济增长的重要支撑，不过储蓄率进一步下滑，这或对中长期消费动 力构成一定压力。核心 PCE 维持在较高水平但未显著超预期，表明通胀 压力虽有所缓解但仍高于美联储 2%的长期目标。 风险提示：美国经济和货币、财政、贸易政策的不确定性。 核心观点 行业研究·海外市场专题 美股 弱于大市·维持 | 证券分析师：王学恒 | 证券分析师：徐祯霆 | | --- | --- | | 010-88005382 | 010-88005494 | | wangxueh@guosen.com.cn | xuzhenti ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market is experiencing a spring rally, characterized by a recovery in market confidence and a focus on sectors that are not heavily weighted in broad-based ETFs, particularly in consumer and real estate chains [2][3][4][10] - The liquidity environment is a key driver of the current spring rally, supported by new insurance premiums entering the market and the return of overseas funds due to the appreciation of the RMB [4][7] - The market is expected to see a structural bull market with alternating phases of upward and sideways movements, with the current phase transitioning from the second to the third upward segment [6][12][14] Group 2 - Investment opportunities are identified in sectors with strong earnings forecasts, particularly in AI hardware, batteries, pharmaceuticals, steel, and non-bank financials [5][9][11] - The focus on "technology + resource products" is emphasized, with sectors such as semiconductors, AI, new energy, and chemicals being highlighted for their growth potential [7][9] - The market is advised to pay attention to the performance of cyclical stocks and the impact of regulatory policies on market dynamics, particularly in the context of the anticipated earnings reports from listed companies [10][12][13]

Group 1 - The core focus of the article is on the performance and strategic adjustments of funds managed by Zhang Kun of E Fund, highlighting the significant differentiation in fund performance and his outlook on domestic consumption and investment opportunities [1][2][3] Group 2 - In Q4 2025, Zhang Kun's managed fund size decreased to 48.3 billion yuan, with a quarterly reduction exceeding 8 billion yuan [2][3] - The largest fund, E Fund Blue Chip Selection Mixed Fund (005827.OF), experienced a nearly 9% loss in Q4, underperforming its benchmark by over 6%, while the E Fund Asia Select Stock Fund (118001.OF) achieved a 4.5% positive return, outperforming its benchmark by over 2% and recording a nearly 42% increase for the entire year [2][3][4] Group 3 - Zhang Kun continued to reduce holdings in the liquor sector, albeit at a slower pace compared to Q3 2025, maintaining a near 10% position in leading liquor stocks like Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye [4][5][6] - Significant reductions were also noted in pharmaceutical and media stocks, with JD Health seeing a cut of about half in holdings, alongside Tencent Holdings and Focus Media [5][6][7] Group 4 - In overseas investments, Samsung Electronics replaced Tencent Holdings as the top holding in the E Fund Asia Select, with Zhang Kun opting to take profits as stock prices surged [6][7][8] Group 5 - Zhang Kun expressed a strong belief in the future of domestic consumption, arguing that current consumer weakness is not a permanent state and will improve, supported by government goals for income growth and stabilization of housing prices [8][9][10] - He emphasized that a robust domestic consumption market is crucial for technological innovation, suggesting that increased consumer spending will benefit domestic AI companies and accelerate their development [10][11][12] - Zhang Kun remains optimistic about the long-term potential of Chinese consumption and economic growth, viewing current market valuations of quality companies as attractive for long-term investors [10][11][12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry and Company Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around macroeconomic trends, inflation expectations, and the performance of various industries in the context of the Chinese and U.S. markets. [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has improved, particularly in second and third-tier cities, indicating a recovery in market activity to about 50-66% of previous levels. [2] Inflation Expectations - A "pork-oil resonance" phenomenon is anticipated in 2026, signaling the end of deflation and a return to inflation, with a CPI central tendency expected to reach 0.5% and PPI likely turning positive in Q3. [1][3][4] Industry Focus - Industries that may benefit from the positive PPI include resource-related sectors and raw materials, while the technology sector's valuations are no longer seen as advantageous. [1][4] U.S. Stock Market Outlook - The U.S. stock market is expected to experience a rally from May to August 2026, potentially boosting related sectors such as computing power. However, the main focus remains on the implications of PPI turning positive. [1][6] PPI Impact on Industries - Positive PPI is expected to favor industries such as construction materials, non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals, while sectors like machinery, automotive, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and home appliances show strong alpha correlation but weak beta correlation. [1][7][8] Currency Exchange Rate - The Chinese yuan is projected to appreciate significantly, with the effective exchange rate expected to return to levels seen at the end of 2024. This appreciation will benefit yuan-denominated assets, including Hong Kong stocks. [1][9] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks are increasing due to the disintegration of the old international order, U.S. strategic adjustments, and rising global political uncertainties. Key areas of concern include the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the situation in Iran, and developments in U.S.-China relations. [1][10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content Specific Industry Dynamics - The relationship between PPI and various industries has shifted, with some sectors like real estate losing their previous correlation with PPI, while others have become more competitive due to changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics. [1][7][8] Recent Developments in Geopolitical Situations - The situation in Greenland has shown signs of easing, with diplomatic negotiations taking precedence over military threats. However, tensions remain in the Middle East, particularly regarding Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. [10][11][12][14] U.S.-China Relations - Recent developments indicate a potential stabilization in U.S.-China relations, with high-level diplomatic engagements expected to continue throughout the year. [15][16]

Group 1 - A-shares opened higher with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.21%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.37%, and ChiNext Index up 0.48% on January 26, 2023, driven by sectors like non-ferrous metals and photovoltaic [1] - Recent market dynamics show a divergence in fund flows, with over 570 billion yuan exiting broad-based ETFs while approximately 110 billion yuan flowed into thematic industry ETFs, indicating a positive overall market sentiment [2] - The focus remains on "technology + resource products" as key investment themes, with sectors like AI semiconductors, new energy, and non-ferrous metals showing strong performance and growth potential [2] Group 2 - The spring market is expected to progress, with key themes including commercial aerospace and AI applications, alongside a focus on price increase chains driven by supply-demand mismatches [3] - The current price increase trend is supported by the expansion of AI hardware chains and upstream raw material chains benefiting from supply gaps, such as lithium carbonate and PTA [3] - The global shift in commodity prices, particularly in gold and silver, suggests a need to adjust pricing frameworks for scarce physical assets and core equity assets due to declining currency value [4]

Group 1 - Since September 2024, the proportion of southbound capital transactions has rapidly increased to 20%-30%, nearly doubling compared to before 2024 [2][5] - In 2025, both active and passive foreign capital have become synchronous indicators of the Hong Kong stock market, showing no leading characteristics [2][5] - During sharp declines or corrections in the Hong Kong stock market, southbound capital tends to buy against the trend [2][5] Group 2 - Each round of pricing power competition typically begins with the optimization of the Stock Connect policy or the influx of incremental capital, which usually flows into dividend and scarce assets [5] - Net outflows of southbound capital often occur in response to adverse industry policies or external macroeconomic environments, particularly in sectors where foreign capital pricing power is increasing, such as software services, hardware equipment, consumer services, and discretionary retail [5][12] - Industries less likely to experience significant net outflows include those favored by long-term capital, such as banking, telecommunications, and public utilities, unless there are clear adverse policies affecting the sector [5][12] Group 3 - The proportion of medium to long-term capital in the current round of southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks has increased, with insurance capital making 41 stakes, 35 of which are in H-shares, marking the highest record in the past decade [8] - Key industries for increased holdings include discretionary retail, finance (banking, insurance), innovative pharmaceuticals, software services, and hardware equipment [8] Group 4 - Current industries with pricing power for southbound capital and Chinese capital include semiconductors and dividend stocks, while industries lacking pricing power include internet, hardware equipment, software services, home appliances, and media [11][12] - Active management public funds have low pricing power in the Hong Kong stock market, focusing heavily on AI-related CSP giants, electronics, and innovative pharmaceuticals [16]

Key Insights - The report highlights the continued rise in cobalt prices, driven by lower-than-expected export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with Q1 2026 cobalt prices closely linked to export rates [3] - Lithium prices are expected to rise due to new supply-side policies, with short-term fluctuations anticipated after the end of current disruptions [3] - The molybdenum market is stable, with steady bidding from major steel mills and slight inventory reductions in downstream stainless steel [3] - The construction materials sector shows significant earnings and valuation elasticity, particularly in consumer building materials, with many companies expected to improve profitability in 2026 due to raw material benefits and structural adjustments [3] - The media sector is experiencing rapid advancements in domestic AI models, with recommendations to focus on specific companies around the Chinese New Year [3] - In retail, the industry is shifting from "adjusting inputs" to "delivering results," with improvements in same-store sales and customer traffic expected to enhance profit margins [3] - The jewelry market is seeing high gold prices, which may impact consumer sentiment, but the traditional peak sales season in Q1 is expected to drive strong terminal sales [3] - The tourism sector is focusing on winter sports themes, with a longer Chinese New Year holiday in 2026, creating opportunities for mid- to long-term travel destinations [3]