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CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,小麦期货跌1.52%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 23:10
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures closed mostly lower on September 26, with soybean futures slightly increasing while corn and wheat futures declined [1] Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 0.17% to close at 1014.00 cents per bushel [1] - Corn futures fell by 1.00% to close at 421.50 cents per bushel [1] - Wheat futures decreased by 1.52% to close at 519.00 cents per bushel [1]
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨,咖啡期货涨2.02%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-26 23:10
Core Insights - On September 26, the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) saw a broad increase in agricultural futures, indicating a positive market trend for these commodities [1] Group 1: Commodity Performance - Raw sugar futures rose by 0.43%, closing at 16.35 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased by 0.08%, ending at 66.33 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures saw a gain of 0.38%, closing at $6,951.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures experienced the largest increase, rising by 2.02% to close at 378.85 cents per pound [1]
农产品日报-20250926
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 12:22
【豆一】 国产大豆盘面延续减仓价格反弹的势头,价格表现强于进口大豆,价差呈现扩大的走势。国产新季大豆上市在 即,新豆报价偏疲弱。进口大豆方面阿根廷农业政策本周波动较大,一周之内发生了从免税出口到出口税收减 免的政令结束。中国本周加快了阿根廷大豆的采购量。我们倾向于即使不采购美国大豆,叠加中国庞大的库存 缓冲和南美大豆的供应,后续国内豆类会进行逐步去库,容易使得明年一季度大豆供应趋紧,但是我们倾向大 豆供应链缺口风险会缓解,明年二季度大豆供应情况重点关注巴西新作情况。短期关注国产大豆收购量和收购 价格的指引以及进口大豆表现。 【大豆&豆粕】 今日连粕主力合约继续下跌0.81%。本周一阿根廷出口政策出台后连箱下跌较大。截至周三相关产品销售额达到 70亿美元上限,阿根廷取消豆类免税政策。期间国内大约进口了220多万吨阿根廷大豆。近期豆粕行情受国外政 策扰动太大,继续观望,长期我们继续谨慎看多连粕。 (豆油&棕榈油) | | | | | 操作评级 | 2025年09月26日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 豆一 | な☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | ...
养殖油脂产业链日报策略报告-20250926
农产品团队 | 作者: | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号: | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0017427 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578697 | | 作者: | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号: | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0014216 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578922 | | 作者: | 王一博 | | 从业资格证号: | F3083334 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0018596 | | 联系方式: | 010-68578169 | | 作者: | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号: | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号: | Z0020712 | | 联系方式: | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格:京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间:2025年09月25日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油:日内豆油期价上涨。主要原因在于阿根廷出口免税额度用尽 ,以及此前消息称美国或将采取必要措施支持阿根廷进行美元货币 互换以缓解阿 ...
菜籽类市场周报:阿根廷政策影响下,菜粕明显收低-20250926
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 09:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, suggest a bullish approach and monitor China - Canada trade relations. The futures price closed higher this week. Although Canada's rapeseed harvest is expected to be good and domestic vegetable oil supply is relatively loose, rapeseed oil production pressure is low due to low oil mill operating rates and limited near - month rapeseed purchases. The extension of anti - dumping investigations on Canadian rapeseed may keep the supply tight in the fourth quarter. Overall, rapeseed oil is still supported before substantial progress in China - Canada trade negotiations [8][9] - For rapeseed meal, suggest short - term trading and pay attention to China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The futures price declined this week. US soybean harvest is approaching with a good harvest expectation, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed the international market competition. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but the substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The market is cautious due to frequent trade policy news [11][12] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - Rapeseed oil: The 01 contract closed at 10,162 yuan/ton, up 94 yuan/ton from last week. Canada's rapeseed production is expected to reach 20 million tons, the highest since 2018. Domestic vegetable oil supply is loose, but rapeseed oil production pressure is low. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed may lead to tight supply in the fourth quarter [9] - Rapeseed meal: The 01 contract closed at 2,404 yuan/ton, down 117 yuan/ton from last week. US soybean harvest is approaching, and Argentina's export tax policy has changed. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, but soybean meal substitution weakens demand [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures price and position: Rapeseed oil futures closed higher with a total position of 354,265 lots, up 1,836 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures declined with a total position of 371,100 lots, down 10,071 lots from last week [16] - Top 20 net positions: Rapeseed oil's top 20 net long position increased from +33,259 to +36,449. Rapeseed meal's top 20 net short position increased from - 13,121 to - 62,563 [20] - Futures warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil registered warehouse receipts were 8,057 lots, and rapeseed meal were 9,245 lots [26][27] - Spot price and basis: In Jiangsu, rapeseed oil spot price was 10,390 yuan/ton, slightly up from last week, and the basis was +228 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu Nantong, rapeseed meal price was 2,570 yuan/ton, with little change, and the basis was +65 yuan/ton [33][39] - Futures inter - month spread: Rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread was +520 yuan/ton, and rapeseed meal 1 - 5 spread was +78 yuan/ton, both at medium levels in recent years [46] - Futures - spot ratio: Rapeseed oil - meal 01 contract ratio was 4.22, and the spot average price ratio was 4.21 [49] - Price spread between rapeseed oil and other oils: Rapeseed - soybean oil 01 contract spread was 2,000 yuan/ton, and rapeseed - palm oil 01 contract spread was 926 yuan/ton, both expanding this week [58] - Price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal: Soybean meal - rapeseed meal 01 contract spread was 532 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 450 yuan/ton as of Thursday [64] 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply - inventory and import: As of September 19, 2025, oil mill rapeseed inventory was 50,000 tons. The estimated arrivals in September, October, and November 2025 were 190,000, 150,000, and 450,000 tons respectively [70] - Supply - import crushing profit: As of September 26, the import rapeseed spot crushing profit was +1,373 yuan/ton [74] - Supply - oil mill crushing volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 49,000 tons, down 12,000 tons from last week, with an operating rate of 11.99% [78] - Supply - monthly import: In August 2025, China's rapeseed import was 246,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 348,000 tons (58.52%) and a month - on - month increase of 70,600 tons [82] Rapeseed Oil - Supply - inventory and import: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 664,000 tons, down 19,000 tons (2.73%) from last week. In August 2025, rapeseed oil import was 140,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons (16.67%) and a month - on - month increase of 10,000 tons [86] - Demand - consumption and production: As of August 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.506 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 449.57 billion yuan [90] - Demand - contract volume: As of the 38th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil contract volume was 76,000 tons, down 5,000 tons (7.13%) from last week [94] Rapeseed Meal - Supply - inventory: As of the 38th week of 2025, domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 17,000 tons, down 1,000 tons (2.86%) from last week [98] - Supply - import: In August 2025, rapeseed meal import was 213,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9,600 tons (4.72%) and a month - on - month increase of 30,300 tons [102] - Demand - feed production: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly feed output was 2.8273 million tons [106] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of September 26, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 26.61%, up 4.12% from last week, at a slightly high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [109]
油料日报:豆一供需逻辑改善,花生新米晾晒影响供应-20250926
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [4][7] Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures market rose slightly due to the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] - The peanut futures market closed slightly higher. The supply has no obvious increase, and the price is supported by potential yield decline in some areas and the need for new peanuts to be dried [5][6] Market Analysis of Soybeans Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 3929.00 yuan/ton, up 22.00 yuan/ton (+0.56%) from the previous day. The spot basis of edible soybeans was A11 + 291, down 22 (-32.14%) from the previous day [1] Market Information - New - season soybeans in Northeast China are gradually on the market, with the purchase price of rough grains between 1.8 - 2 yuan/jin. Due to climate impact, the protein content has declined, and high - protein sources have firm prices. The purchase work of enterprises is hindered by rain, and downstream enterprises purchase on demand [2] Price Movement Reasons - The slight increase in soybean futures was driven by the phased improvement of supply - demand logic. The pressure on the supply side has been partially digested, and the demand side shows marginal improvement [3] Market Analysis of Peanuts Futures and Spot Market - The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7778.00 yuan/ton, up 16.00 yuan/ton (+0.21%) from the previous day. The average spot price of peanuts was 8460.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day, and the spot basis was PK11 + 522.00, up 84.00 (+19.18%) from the previous day [4] Market Information - The average price of general peanuts in the national market was 4.22 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills in Shandong and Henan have different purchase prices and are cautious in purchasing [4] Price Movement Reasons - The narrow - range increase in peanut futures was due to the lack of obvious increase in supply. The potential yield decline in some areas in Henan supported the price. New peanuts need time to dry, and traders purchase as needed [5][6] Strategies - The strategy for soybeans is neutral [4] - The strategy for peanuts is neutral [7]
市场购销转好,豆粕震荡运行
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:12
农产品日报 | 2025-09-26 市场购销转好,豆粕震荡运行 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2967元/吨,较前日变动+37元/吨,幅度+1.26%;菜粕2601合约2444元/吨,较前 日变动+49元/吨,幅度+2.05%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差M01+3, 较前日变动-27;江苏地区豆粕现货2890元/吨,较前日变动+10元/吨,现货基差M01-77,较前日变动-27;广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨,较前日变动跌+10元/吨,现货基差M01-67,较前日变动-27。福建地区菜粕现货价格2600 元/吨,较前日变动+30元/吨,现货基差RM01+156,较前日变动-19。 近期市场资讯,巴西全国谷物出口商协会表示,预计2025年9月巴西大豆出口量715万吨,低于一周前预估的753万 吨,但高于去年同期的516万吨;2025年1-9月巴西大豆出口量将达到9525万吨,去年同期为8905万吨。预计10-12 月巴西大豆出口量约1600万吨。 市场分析 整体来看,当前中美和谈仍未有最终结果,但传递了一定的积极信号, ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250926
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:30
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Palm oil: Short-term rebound height is limited [2] - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upward space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2] - Soybean meal: Argentina resumes export tariffs, with a rebound and oscillation [2] - Soybean: Rebound and oscillation [2] - Corn: Pay attention to the new grain listing [2] - Sugar: Range oscillation [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the price of seed cotton [2] - Eggs: Wait for the verification of the Double Festivals [2] - Live pigs: The spot market fails to boom in the peak season, maintain the shorting idea [2] - Peanuts: Oscillatory operation [2] Summary by Directory Palm Oil - **Production Data**: Malaysia's palm oil production from September 1 - 20, 2025, is estimated to have decreased by 4.26% compared to the same period last month [5] - **Export Data**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 12.9% (ITS) and 11.3% (AmSpec) compared to the same period last month [6][10] - **Market Performance**: The palm oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 9,222 yuan/ton with a 1.05% increase and a night - session closing price of 9,258 yuan/ton with a 0.39% increase [7] Soybean Oil - **USDA Forecast**: Analysts' average forecast for US soybean inventory on September 1, 2025, is 3.23 billion bushels, a 5.6% decline from the previous year [10] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean export sales totaled a net increase of 72.45 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: The soybean oil main contract had a day - session closing price of 8,192 yuan/ton with a 1.14% increase and a night - session closing price of 8,198 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Market News**: Argentina resumed export tariffs, causing CBOT soybeans to rise slightly, but US soybean bumper harvest and weak export sales restricted the upward trend [15][17] - **Export Sales**: As of September 18, 2025, US soybean meal export sales totaled a net increase of 22.62 tons, meeting expectations [11] - **Market Performance**: DCE soybean meal 2601 had a day - session closing price of 2967 yuan/ton with a 1.54% increase and a night - session closing price of 2956 yuan/ton with a 0.17% decrease [15] Corn - **Market Price**: The northern corn collection port price is 2240 - 2270 yuan/ton, and the price in Guangdong Shekou is 2400 - 2420 yuan/ton [19] - **Market Performance**: The C2511 contract had a day - session closing price of 2,165 yuan/ton with a 0.32% increase and a night - session closing price of 2,171 yuan/ton with a 0.28% increase [18] Sugar - **Production Data**: Conab lowered Brazil's sugar production forecast for the 25/26 season to 44.5 million tons [23] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23 tons in the 25/26 season [25] - **Market Performance**: The futures main contract price was 5485 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan [23] Cotton - **Domestic Market**: Cotton spot trading is sluggish, and the seed cotton purchase price is temporarily stable [29] - **US Market**: ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly, and the weekly export sales data was poor [30] - **Market Performance**: The CF2601 contract had a day - session closing price of 13,530 yuan/ton with a 0.18% decrease and a night - session closing price of 13490 yuan/ton with a 0.30% decrease [28] Eggs - **Market Performance**: The egg 2510 contract had a closing price of 2,981 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.78% increase [34] Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The Henan spot price was 12580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan [37] - **Trend**: Maintain the shorting idea due to the weak peak - season spot market [2][38] Peanuts - **Spot Market**: The prices in most regions are stable, and the listing time of wheat - stubble peanuts is postponed [41] - **Market Performance**: The PK510 contract had a closing price of 7,770 yuan/ton with a 0.33% decrease [40]
宝城期货豆类油脂早报-20250926
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 01:19
策略参考 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报(2025 年 9 月 26 日) 品种观点参考 备注: 参考观点:震荡偏强 核心逻辑:随着阿根廷宣布恢复谷物及副产品的出口税。事件的扰动影响仍在持续,豆类期价迎来反弹。 目前,国内市场供应压力有增无减,市场对短期供应压力的担忧仍存在持续。此外,随着十一国庆假期的 临近,市场资金仍偏向于交易短期逻辑,资金稳定性较差,在没有超预期风险因素爆发的前提下,节前市 场波动或将逐渐下降,短期走势震荡偏强。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种:豆粕(M) 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 短期 中期 日内 观点 ...
五矿期货农产品早报:农产品早报2025-09-26-20250926
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 00:43
农产品早报 2025-09-26 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号:F03114441 交易咨询号:Z0022498 电话:028-86133280 邮箱:sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 周四美豆小幅上涨,外媒报道阿根廷已筹集到所需的 70 亿美元,并恢复了出口税。周三国内豆粕现货 小幅上涨,幅度约 30 元/吨,国内豆粕成交回落,提货也回落较多。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内港口大 豆库存大幅下降 70 万吨,因到港量下滑,同比增 65 万吨,豆粕库存小幅上升 9 万吨,同比下降 21 万 吨,上周国内压榨大豆 243 万吨,本周预计压榨 239 万吨。 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 阿根廷短期出口了大量豆粕、大豆,目前因 70 亿美元出口目标达到已取消出口税,不过对国际豆粕的 冲击仍较大。巴西方面升贴水暂稳。总体来看,进口大豆成本受到美豆低估值、中美贸易 ...