棉花观点 农产品日报 | 2025-11-18 缺乏明显上涨驱动，板块整体承压运行 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13445元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，幅度-0.04%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到厂 价14579元/吨，较前一日变动-15元/吨，现货基差CF01+1134，较前一日变动-10；3128B棉全国均价14801元/吨， 较前一日变动-5元/吨，现货基差CF01+1356，较前一日变动+0。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）最新发布的11月份美棉供需预测报告，2025/26全美种植面积在5642.7万亩， 收获面积在4472.9万亩，弃耕率维持20.7%不变。单产预期68.7公斤/亩，较9月上调6.7%；产量预期上调至307.3万 吨，较9月调增19.4万吨。消费量预期37.0万吨，出口量预期265.4万吨，较9月调增4.4万吨。基于以上，期末库存 增加15.2万吨至93.6万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA11月月报重启发布，此次报告大幅上调美棉产量，2025/26年度全球棉 花产量、消费量以及期末库存较9月份均增加，整体调整方向偏空，数 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume** - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and (night session) 8,688 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.09%. Trading volume is 585,987 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots, and open interest is 419,635 lots, a decrease of 13,845 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,282 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31%, and (night session) 8,284 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.02%. Trading volume is 275,749 lots, an increase of 29,309 lots, and open interest is 452,776 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,880 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and (night session) 9,894 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%. Trading volume is 251,460 lots, a decrease of 12,202 lots, and open interest is 245,352 lots, a decrease of 3,228 lots [1]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and basis is - 110 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,640 yuan/ton, unchanged, and basis is 358 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and basis is 430 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads** - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: Previous trading day was 1,279 yuan/ton, and the day before was 1,223 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 398 yuan/ton, compared with - 388 yuan/ton previously [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil in Malaysia** - From November 1 - 15, 2025, palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43% month - on - month, and production increased by 4.09% month - on - month [2]. - AmSpec: Export volume from November 1 - 15 was 702,692 tons, a 10% decrease compared with the same period last month [3]. - SGS: Estimated export volume from November 1 - 15 was 334,295 tons, a 44.9% decrease compared with the same period last month [5]. - Malaysia set the reference price for palm oil exports in December at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0%, compared with 4,262.23 ringgit/ton in November [5]. - **US Agriculture** - The USDA corrected the cumulative daily sales announcement. The sale of 130,000 tons of corn to Japan on October 24, 2025, was removed, and the sale of soybeans to China on November 3, 2025, was corrected from 232,000 tons to 132,000 tons [5]. - The USDA did not republish the weekly US crop growth report after the federal government resumed operation [5]. - **US Soybean Crushing** - In October, NOPA member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, setting a new record. As of October 31, soybean oil inventory reached 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [6]. - **Brazilian Soybeans** - As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, compared with 58.4% last week, 73.8% last year, and a five - year average of 67.2% [7]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 2,302,124.10 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 230,212.40 tons, a 71% increase compared with the average daily export volume in November last year [7]. - **Ukrainian Crops** - As of November 13, Ukraine harvested 47.937 million tons of grains and legumes on 9.826 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 4.88 tons per hectare. Among them, 4.654 million tons of soybeans were harvested on 1.96 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 2.38 tons per hectare [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].

每经AI快讯，当地时间11月17日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大 豆期货涨2.93%报1157.50美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.05%报434.75美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨3.19%报 558.75美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 息一 | ☆☆☆ | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 豆油 | ななな | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 棕櫚油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 董甜甜 高级分析师 | | 菜油 | ★☆☆ | F0302203 Z0012037 | | 薬粕 | ★☆☆ | | | | | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 玉米 | な☆☆ | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 生猎 | ななな | | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 豆一期货价格表现偏强。国内大豆收购优质优价，上周部分企业提高了大豆收购价格。高蛋白大豆收购价格有明显的优势。受 到今年不利天气的影响，今年国产高蛋白大豆供应趋紧，因此市场对高蛋白大豆给予乐观的预期。随着国产大豆价格上涨，跟 进口大豆价差拉大。随着价格上涨，国产大豆仓单也在增加。进 ...

豆粕、生猪下挫 一、农产品板块综述 周一农产品板块大部分品种下跌，豆粕大幅走低，受到美豆下挫 的带动，国内进口大豆充足，豆粕库存在百万吨高位，多头回吐令期 价高位下跌，后市续调整空间。生猪下挫，供应端生猪存栏高位，需 求端腌腊季需求推迟，供大于需格局压制猪价走低。 二、品种策略跟踪 （一）豆粕：大幅下跌 焦点关注：豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下挫，受美豆下跌的带动： 1. 美国农业部公布的 11 月大豆供需报告将 2025/26 年度美国大 豆单产和产量预估值分别从上个月的53.5蒲式耳/英亩和43.01亿蒲 式耳下调至 53 蒲式耳/英亩和 42.53 亿蒲式耳，数据调整不及市场预 期，引发抛售，美豆下挫带动连粕走低。国内进口大豆到港充足，油 厂豆粕库存在百万吨的高水平，下游饲料企业采购一般，豆粕价格承 压下跌。 2.豆粕主力 2601 合约大幅下跌，期价跌破 10 日均线，呈现高位 回调态势，策略上多单平仓，关注中期均线支撑。 （二）生猪：跳空下行 焦点关注：生猪主力 2601 合约跳空下行，走势偏弱： 1. 供应端能繁母猪存栏量仍高出正常保有量叠加生产效率提升， 产能过剩局面未变。11 月规模猪企计划出 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the release of the US soybean monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped and then stabilized. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal prices also declined, with the soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widening and the monthly spread of both showing a downward trend. The international soybean market is generally in a state of relatively loose supply, and the Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure. The market's focus on soybean meal may be on the repair of crushing profit, and in the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Rapeseed meal demand is average, and the supply side still faces pressure [3][4][9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - After the release of the monthly supply - demand report, the US soybean futures price dropped but then stabilized due to optimistic expectations for subsequent exports. The price of Brazilian soybeans rebounded slightly. The domestic soybean meal price declined due to the downward pressure from the cost side and the full reflection of previous good news. Rapeseed meal also declined, affected by the fall of soybean meal and its own loose supply - demand situation. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread slightly widened, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - The monthly supply - demand report for US soybeans is generally positive, but the price increase space is limited. The US soybean balance sheet can support the price, and future trends will be more affected by exports and crushing. South American supply has an increasing impact, with Brazil's new - crop soybean sowing progressing rapidly, and most institutions expect a bumper harvest. Brazil's old - crop soybeans have good export and crushing performance. Argentina's old - crop soybean production is relatively large, and its recent crushing and export have increased. The overall international soybean market supply is relatively loose [4] - In the domestic market, the supply of soybean meal is relatively loose, with increased oil mill operating rates, sufficient market supply, and increased提货量. The inventory remains high. The demand for rapeseed meal is gradually weakening, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the supply of rapeseed is low, and the supply pressure still exists [7] 3.3 Macroeconomic Analysis - The macro - economic situation has recently stabilized. The end of the US government shutdown and the Sino - US negotiations have sent positive signals to the market, causing the US soybean futures price to rise. The resumption of the soybean export qualifications of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans. However, the impact of macro - economic factors on the market is expected to be limited in the future, and the market will focus more on fundamental changes [8] 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean monthly supply - demand report is positive, but the fundamental support is limited. Without significant improvement in exports, the US soybean price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The Brazilian soybean price is expected to be under pressure and will generally fluctuate. The focus of the soybean meal market may be on the repair of crushing profit. In the long - term, the price of soybean meal is still under pressure. Soybean meal outperforms rapeseed meal, and the monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to decline [9] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to continue to wait and see in the short term - Arbitrage: Wait and see - Options: Sell the wide - straddle strategy [10]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8590 | 8560 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 Y2601 | | 8256 | 8316 | | -60 | -0.72% | | 墓差 Y2601 | | 334 | 244 | | 90 | 36.89% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 | | 01+270 | 01+270 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24993 | 24993 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 8590 | 8570 | | 20 | 0.23% | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Palm Oil**: In Malaysia, the expected record - high production in 2025 may pressure the benchmark price, but Indonesia's B85 policy supports the market. Dalian palm oil futures are in an upward - trending oscillation and may continue to strengthen in the short - term, but there is a risk of decline after facing resistance below 9000 yuan [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The USDA report's less - than - expected reduction in US soybean production led to a decline in CBOT soybeans and soy oil. In China, high inventory and weak downstream demand may cause short - term callbacks in Dalian soybean oil [1]. - **Corn**: Due to factors like farmers' price - holding, logistics issues, and demand from deep - processing and feed sectors, corn has a short - term supply - demand imbalance. The price may rebound but is limited by supply pressure, with attention on the 2200 - 2220 pressure level [3]. - **Sugar**: India's export policy and Brazil's approaching end of the harvest season make the sugar market relatively calm. The price of raw sugar is expected to oscillate around 14 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar market is likely to maintain an oscillating trend next week [7][8]. - **Cotton**: The 11 - month USDA report is bearish for cotton prices. In China, the short - term pressure from new cotton supply and weak downstream demand are offset by the relatively low inventory of spinning enterprises, resulting in short - term price pressure within a range [9]. - **Meal**: The USDA's November report lacks significant positive factors. With high domestic soybean inventory and expected reserve rotation, the meal market is expected to have wide - range oscillations [11]. - **Eggs**: High egg production inventory and weak demand lead to a short - term supply - demand imbalance. Although the decline in egg prices has slowed and the willingness to support prices has increased, the market is expected to remain in a weak, oscillating state this week [15]. - **Pigs**: Weak spot prices and high market supply pressure the price, but there is support at low levels. The overall slow progress of November's planned slaughter may boost the price. The market is in an oscillating pattern, and the 3 - 7 reverse spread strategy can be continued [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On November 14, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.35% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2601 was 8256 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; the basis was 334 yuan/ton, up 36.89% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8590 yuan/ton, up 0.23%; the futures price of P2601 was 8644 yuan/ton, down 1.23%; the basis was - 54 yuan/ton, up 70.33%. The import cost was 9112.8 yuan/ton, down 0.76%, and the import profit was - 469 yuan/ton, down 8.89% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10290 yuan/ton, up 0.29%; the futures price of OI601 was 9923 yuan/ton, down 0.52%; the basis was 367 yuan/ton, up 28.77% [1]. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil 01 - 05 spread was 228 yuan/ton, up 2.70%; the palm oil 01 - 05 spread was - 116 yuan/ton, down 13.73%; the rapeseed oil 01 - 05 spread was 499 yuan/ton, up 1.63%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 100%; the 2601 soybean - palm oil spread was - 732 yuan/ton, up 3.68%. The spot rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 2601 rapeseed - soybean oil spread was 1667 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [1]. 3.2 Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 at Jinzhou Port was 2185 - 2210 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.05% - 0.45%. The basis was 25 yuan/ton, up 78.57%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 67 yuan/ton, up 5.63%. The price at Shekou was 2330 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The import profit was 301 yuan/ton, up 5.00%. The number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 11.15%. The position was 1859009, down 1.16% [3]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 was 2505 yuan/ton, down 0.08%. The spot price in Changchun was 2510 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Weifang, it was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 5 yuan/ton, up 66.67%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 76 yuan/ton, unchanged. The 01 spread between starch and corn was 320 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The profit of Shandong starch was 35 yuan/ton, down 2.78%. The position was 301830, down 0.43% [3]. 3.3 Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 was 5470 yuan/ton, down 0.76%; the price of sugar 2605 was 5404 yuan/ton, down 0.53%. The price of ICE raw sugar was 14.85 cents/pound, up 2.91%. The 1 - 5 spread was 66 yuan/ton, down 16.46%. The position of the main contract was 370242, down 2.99%. The number of warehouse receipts was 8622, up 11.67%; the effective forecast was 183, down 84.53% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning was 5660 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, it was 5540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis in Nanning was 256 yuan/ton, up 12.78%; in Kunming, it was 136 yuan/ton, up 27.10%. The price of imported Brazilian sugar (within quota) was 3978 yuan/ton, down 1.41%; (outside quota) was 5036 yuan/ton, down 1.47% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 1116.21 tons, up 12.03%; the cumulative sales were 1048.00 tons, up 9.17%. The cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 646.50 tons, up 4.59%. The monthly sales in Guangxi were 26.66 tons, down 41.20%. The national cumulative sugar sales rate was 93.90%, down 2.60%; in Guangxi, it was 93.90%, up 4.80%. The national industrial inventory was 68.21 tons, down 41.20%; in Guangxi, it was 44.21 tons, up 62.90%; in Yunnan, it was 33.65 tons, up 26.60%. Sugar imports were 55.00 tons, up 37.50% [7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2605 was 13470 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; the price of cotton 2601 was 13450 yuan/ton, down 0.30%. The price of ICE US cotton was 64.14 cents/pound, down 0.68%. The 5 - 1 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 300%. The position of the main contract was 556440, down 1.15%. The number of warehouse receipts was 4401, up 5.29%; the effective forecast was 643, down 26.77% [9]. - **Spot Market**: The arrival price of Xinjiang cotton (3128B) was 14594 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. The CC Index (3128B) was 14806 yuan/ton, down 0.09%. The FC Index (M: 1%) was 12913 yuan/ton, down 0.28%. The spread between 3128B and the 01 contract was 1124 yuan/ton, up 0.45%; between 3128B and the 05 contract was 1144 yuan/ton, up 1.78%. The spread between CC Index (3128B) and FC Index (M: 1%) was 1883 yuan/ton, up 1.23% [9]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory was 293.06 tons, up 70.4%; imports were 10.00 tons, up 42.9%; the bonded area inventory was 31.10 tons, up 8.0%. The inventory days of yarn were 26.12 days, up 3.5%. The cotton shipping volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 tons, up 22.6%. The immediate processing profit of spinning enterprises was - 1796.60 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 1471.00 billion yuan, up 19.5%. The year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textiles was 6.30%, up 34.0%. The year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports was - 9.10%, down 242.1%; the year - on - year growth rate of clothing and clothing accessories exports was - 15.96%, down 100.2% [9]. 3.5 Meal - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3060 yuan/ton, up 0.33%; the futures price of M2601 was 3092 yuan/ton, up 0.68%; the basis was - 32 yuan/ton, down 52.38%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian ships in February was - 7 yuan/ton, down 800% [11]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of RM2601 was 2490 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; the basis was 10 yuan/ton, up 25.00%. The import crushing profit of Canadian ships in January was 777 yuan/ton, down 3.48% [11]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of soybeans in Harbin was 3920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean contract was 4215 yuan/ton, up 2.08%; the basis was - 295 yuan/ton, down 41.15%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the futures price of the second - grade soybean contract was 3803 yuan/ton, up 0.37%; the basis was 147 yuan/ton, down 8.70% [11]. - **Spreads**: The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal was 244 yuan/ton, up 11.42%; the 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal was 65 yuan/ton, up 3.17%. The spot oil - meal ratio was 2.81, up 0.02%; the main - contract oil - meal ratio was 2.67, down 1.40%. The spot soybean - rapeseed meal spread was 560 yuan/ton, up 1.82%; the 2601 spread was 602 yuan/ton, up 3.97% [11]. 3.6 Eggs - **Futures Market**: The price of the 12 - contract was 3033 yuan/500KG, down 0.23%; the price of the 01 - contract was 3235 yuan/500KG, down 0.92%. The 12 - 01 spread was - 202 yuan/500KG, up 10.22% [15]. - **Spot Market**: The price in egg - producing areas was 2.98 yuan/jin, down 0.34%. The basis was - 51 yuan/500KG, down 6.54% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The price of egg - laying chicken chicks was 2.80 yuan/feather, unchanged; the price of culled chickens was 4.04 yuan/jin, up 0.25%. The egg - feed ratio was 2.34, down 1.68%. The breeding profit was - 26.52 yuan/feather, down 8.51% [15]. 3.7 Pigs - **Futures Market**: The basis of the main contract was 582 yuan/ton, up 103.57%. The price of the 2605 - contract was 12195 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; the price of the 2601 - contract was 11775 yuan/ton, down 0.72%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 420 yuan/ton, down 12.00%. The position of the main contract was 130675, down 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Henan was 12060 yuan/ton, up 60.0; in Shandong, it was 12190 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Sichuan, it was 11340 yuan/ton, down 60.0; in Liaoning, it was 11640 yuan/ton, up 140.0; in Guangdong, it was 12450 yuan/ton, down 160.0; in Hunan, it was 11440 yuan/ton, down 70.0; in Hebei, it was 11970 yuan/ton, up 70.0 [17]. - **Related Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points was 162927, down 0.74%. The weekly white - strip price was 18.60 yuan, unchanged. The weekly price of piglets was 17.25 yuan/kg, up 1.47%; the weekly price of sows was 32.47 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly slaughter weight was 128.48 kg, up 0.14%. The weekly self - breeding profit was - 115 yuan/head, down 28.70%; the weekly purchased - pig breeding profit was - 206 yuan/head, down 17.15%. The monthly number of fertile sows was 40350000, down 0.07% [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The November USDA supply - demand report was less bullish than expected, leading to an expected correction in the futures market. The poor profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing indicates that the domestic futures market is expected to follow the trend of the US market. Future attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement news from the US and the trend of new - crop basis [5]. - The overall investment view is that the market will be in a state of oscillation. The trading strategy suggests a unilateral oscillation approach and a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage. Key factors to monitor include policies and weather [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview Supply - The USDA November supply - demand report adjusted the 2025/26 US soybean yield per acre from 53.5 bushels to 53 bushels, kept the crush at 2.555 billion bushels, reduced exports from 1.685 billion bushels to 1.635 billion bushels, and decreased ending stocks from 300 million bushels to 290 million bushels, showing less - than - expected bullishness [5]. - CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 8, the soybean planting rate in Brazil was 58.4%, compared with 47.1% the previous week and 66.1% the same period last year, with a five - year average of 57%. Attention should be paid to the relatively dry weather expected in southern Brazil's Rio Grande do Sul state in the coming weeks and the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern [5]. - From November to December, domestic soybean meal inventories are expected to decline, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be ample. The progress of vessel bookings for December - January shipments is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [5]. - Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the expected supply of imported rapeseed meal and rapeseed in China will shrink. Policy changes should be monitored [5]. - The opening of Australian rapeseed imports is expected to supplement the domestic rapeseed meal supply in the fourth quarter [5]. Demand - For livestock and poultry, short - term high inventory levels are expected to be maintained, with no obvious reduction in production capacity, which supports feed demand. However, current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies aim to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect future supply [5]. - Soybean meal has a relatively high cost - performance ratio [5]. - Recently, downstream transactions of soybean meal have been cautious, while提货 performance has been good. Downstream transactions and提货 of rapeseed meal have been cautious [5]. Inventory - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historical highs for the same period and are expected to decline from November to December [5]. - The days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises have dropped to a low level [5]. - Domestic rapeseed inventories have declined to a low level, and rapeseed meal inventories have been continuously decreasing [5]. Basis/Spread - The basis is neutral [5]. Profit - The profit of domestic soybean purchases for crushing is poor [5]. - The profit of Canadian rapeseed crushing is good [5]. Valuation - From the perspective of crushing profit, the soybean meal futures price is at a relatively low valuation. From the perspective of basis, the recent soybean meal futures price is at a moderately high valuation [5]. Macro and Policy - Since November 10, 2025, at 13:01, the State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US. The 24% additional tariff rate on US imports will continue to be suspended for one year, while the 10% additional tariff rate will be retained. Currently, the tariff rate for China's soybean imports from the US is 13% [5]. 3.2 Fundamental Supply - Demand Data of Meal Products - In November, the inventory - to - consumption ratios of US soybeans and global soybeans in the 25/26 period decreased [34]. - The November report showed a decline in the rapeseed inventory - to - consumption ratio [40]. - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at high levels, while the inventory of feed enterprises is at a low level [85]. - The crushing profit of US soybeans has declined [55]. - This week, no US soybean export sales data were released [68].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report Soft Commodity Sector - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar price has rebounded, but the fundamentals at home and abroad remain unchanged. The supply surplus in the 2025/26 sugar season has been revised downward, which slightly boosts sentiment. However, Brazil's sugar production is expected to increase significantly, and the weekly export volume in November decreased year - on - year. In China, new sugar is on the market, and the main contract is under pressure at 5500. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies and hold the strategy of selling call options [4]. - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has followed, but the increase is weaker. The short - term rise is mainly due to the increase in warehouse receipt costs. The demand improvement of downstream wood - pulp paper is limited. Although the global pulp shipment volume increased in September, the shipment volume of softwood pulp to China decreased year - on - year, and China's pulp imports decreased in October. The market is advised to wait and see as the upside space is limited [5]. - **Offset Paper**: The spot price remains stable, and the peak season has limited impact on the market. The cost is supported by the rising pulp futures price, but the upside is limited. The price is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range, and it is recommended to short near the resistance level [6][7]. - **Cotton**: The external market is weak. The USDA November report is bearish for US cotton, and the domestic cotton production is expected to increase slightly. The demand improvement is limited, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions on dips [8][9]. Fresh Fruit Sector - **Apples**: The production and high - quality fruit rate have decreased year - on - year, which provides core support. The apple warehousing in the producing areas is progressing steadily. The 01 contract is expected to remain strong at a high level, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the 2605 contract cautiously [10]. - **Jujubes**: In November, the jujube futures price dropped significantly and then fluctuated at a low level. The supply has become more abundant, and the expectation of production reduction has failed. The supply and demand are expected to be strong in the fourth quarter. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold a reverse spread strategy or long positions in the 2605 contract with protective put options [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation - **Fresh Fruit Futures**: For Apple 2605, it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously as the inventory continues to decline year - on - year. For Jujube 2601, it is recommended to short on rallies due to the cooling of the production reduction expectation [20]. - **Soft Commodity Futures**: For Sugar 2601, short on rallies as the external market is under pressure and new sugar is on the market. For Pulp 2601, wait and see as the upside space is limited. For Offset Paper 2601, short on rallies as the demand improvement is limited. For Cotton 2601, hold short positions cautiously as the new cotton production is expected to increase and the consumption confidence is insufficient [20]. Second Part: Sector Weekly Market Review a. Futures Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2601 | 9040 | - 198 | - 2.14 | | Jujube 2601 | 9590 | - 555 | - 5.47 | | Sugar 2601 | 5457 | - 26 | - 0.47 | | Pulp 2511 | 4872 | 34 | 0.70 | | Offset Paper 2601 | 4278 | 8 | 0.19 | | Cotton 2601 | 13580 | - 15 | - 0.11 | [21] b. Spot Market Review | Variety | Spot Price | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple (yuan/jin) | 4 | 0.00 | 0.7 | | Jujube (yuan/kg) | 9.40 | - 0.10 | - 5.30 | | Sugar (yuan/ton) | 5760 | 10 | - 560 | | Pulp (Shandong Yinxing) | 5500 | 0 | - 800 | | Cotton (yuan/ton) | 14806 | - 13 | - 590 | [24] Third Part: Sector Basis Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the basis of Apple 1 - month contract, Jujube main - continuous contract, etc. [32][33][34] Fourth Part: Inter - Month Spread Situation There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the spread between Apple 10 - 1 and 1 - 5 contracts, etc. [42][44][46] Fifth Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation | Variety | Warehouse Receipt Quantity | Month - on - Month Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Apple | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Jujube | 0 | 0 | 0 | | Sugar | 8622 | 901 | - 4507 | | Pulp | 220368 | - 1493 | - 157345 | | Cotton | 4401 | 221 | 1980 | [48] Sixth Part: Option - Related Data a. Option Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Option Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | | Apple 2605 | The inventory continues to decline year - on - year, and the price is supported | Sell out - of - the - money put options | | Jujube 2601 | New jujube production increases and is concentrated on the market | Sell deep out - of - the - money call options | | Sugar 2601 | Cost support, but the fundamentals are bearish | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Cotton 2601 | The supply is temporarily abundant, and the price is expected to remain low | Sell out - of - the - money call options | | Pulp 2601 | Cost support, but the upward driving force of the fundamentals is weak | Sell put options with a strike price of 4900 and call options with a strike price of 5300 | [50] b. Option Data for Each Variety There is no specific text description, only references to relevant figures such as the trading volume, open interest, and historical volatility of apple, sugar, and cotton options [52][53][56] Seventh Part: Sector Futures Fundamental Situation a. Apples - **Producing Area Weather**: There are references to figures of the minimum temperature and precipitation in Shandong and Shaanxi [60][61][62]. - **Export Situation**: There is a reference to the figure of the monthly apple export volume [63][65]. - **Inventory Situation**: There are references to figures of the weekly apple storage inventory in China, Shandong, and Shaanxi [66][68]. b. Jujubes There are references to figures of the weekly trading volume of jujubes in Henan and Hebei and the daily arrival volume in Guangdong Ruyifang Market [70]. c. Sugar There are references to figures of the national sugar industrial inventory, monthly sugar import volume, and the spot - futures spread of sugar [71][72][75]. d. Pulp There are references to figures of the pulp inventory in four domestic ports, the global producer's wood - pulp inventory days, and the weekly production of various types of paper [76][77][79]. e. Offset Paper There are references to figures of the capacity utilization rate, production, inventory, and apparent consumption of offset paper [88][89][91]. f. Cotton There are references to figures of the retail sales and inventory of clothing in the US, UK, and Japan, as well as the industrial and commercial inventory, import volume, and production of cotton - related products in China [93][94][97]