农产品日报 | 2026-01-06 近期市场资讯，据统计，截至2025年12月18日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花148.8万吨，达到年度预期出 口量的56.03%，累计装运棉花64.0万吨，装运率43.01%。本年度至今，印度棉花公司（CCI）累计收购籽棉约285 万吨，其中39%来自特伦甘纳邦。按35%的衣分率折算，CCI累计收购量折皮棉约99.8万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡上行。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期ICE美棉预计仍将 承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不明确，后续需重点关注 美棉的销售情况。国内方面，25/26年度国内棉花延续大幅增产，不过随着新棉销售进度加快，盘面套保阻力有所 减弱。需求端来看，随着双节临近，纱厂和贸易商备货较为积极，不过下游订单较前期有所下滑，成品走货放慢， 产业链库存尤其是 ...

2026 年 1 月 6 日 豆粕：外围市场普涨，连粕或跟随反弹 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4243 | +10（+0.24%） 4264 | | +5（+0.12%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2754 | -5（-0.18%） 2763 | | +17（+0.62%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1062.25 | +16.25（+1.55%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 299.7 | n a +3.8（+1.28%） | | | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-20至+5； 3060～3120， M2605+350/+380； | 较昨+10； 1月M2605+350/+380， 2-3月 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 06 日星期二 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约跌幅0.18%，收于221 | | | | | 9元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2156元/吨，较前一日涨4元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2257元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日跌4元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳中偏弱。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2260-2275元/吨，较前一日跌10元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2400元/吨，较前一 | | | | | 日持平。 | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2740 - 2800. The market is influenced by the interaction of U.S. soybean trends and demand improvement, with news being mixed and short - term oscillation likely [9]. - The soybean A2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4200 - 4300. The market is affected by the execution of the China - U.S. trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, with the price supported by the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans [11]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Hints No information provided in the report. 2. Recent News - The preliminary China - U.S. tariff negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and U.S. soybean weather are still uncertain. The U.S. market is oscillating above the thousand - point mark [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the soybean inventory of oil mills remained high. The planting and growth weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal rebounded from a low level in December, supporting price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, the potential for weather speculation in U.S. soybean - producing areas, and the impact of the preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement have kept soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Long factors**: The preliminary China - U.S. trade negotiation agreement is short - term positive for U.S. soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of U.S. and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Long factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [16]. - **Short factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3050, with a basis of 296, indicating a premium over futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 117.02 million tons, a 0.22% increase from last week and a 71.18% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4220, with a basis of - 23, indicating a discount to futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 710.25 million tons, an 8.53% increase from last week and a 19.48% increase from the same period last year [11]. - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [34]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions decreased, and funds flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions decreased, and funds flowed in [11]. 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - **Price and Transaction**: The price of soybean meal futures rose and then fell, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a high premium. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [17][19][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal changed over time, with the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 and soybean No. 2 showing different trends [21]. - **Supply - Side Conditions**: The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the soybean meal output in November increased year - on - year. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory remained high [26][49]. - **Demand - Side Conditions**: The procurement of domestic downstream enterprises rebounded from a low level, and the提货 volume remained at a relatively high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level, and the stocking demand had a good outlook [28][53]. - **International Market**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the U.S., Brazil, and Argentina in different years were provided, as well as the monthly supply - demand reports of the USDA in the past six months [35][40][45]. - **Livestock Market**: The pig inventory showed an upward trend, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak [57][59].

行业 豆粕 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 豆粕2601 | 3084 | 3115 | 3185 | 3090 | 3119 | 35 | 1.13% | 518 5010 | -690 | | | 豆粕2603 | 3085 | 3072 | 3092 | 3063 | 3087 | 2 | 0.06% | 114495 | 547936 | -15664 | | 豆粕2605 | 2 ...

每经AI快讯，当地时间1月5日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆 期货涨1.58%报1062.25美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨1.60%报444.50美分/蒲式耳，小麦期货涨1.28%报 513.00美分/蒲式耳。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to be volatile and moderately strong in the short term, but there is no obvious driving force in the medium - term logic. Conservative investors are advised to consider partial hedging at high prices for near - month contracts. The oil market is expected to be weakly volatile under the short - term expectation of loose supply and demand. Pre - holiday stockpiling is recommended to replenish inventory appropriately at low prices, and attention should be paid to the implementation of the US biofuel policy. [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - China purchased at least 8 million tons of US soybeans in 2025, approaching the 12 - million - ton procurement target. The uncertainty of the subsequent procurement rhythm due to the lack of a formal trade agreement between China and the US is regarded as an important factor suppressing soybean prices. [1] - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons (221 million bushels), lower than the revised 7.09 million short tons (236 million bushels) in October but higher than 6.3 million short tons (210 million bushels) in November last year. [1] - Near - month contracts are affected by policy rumors. Before the state reserve release, the price is expected to be strong, but the domestic short - term soybean meal spot inventory is high. Once the reserve release occurs after the holiday, the premium may quickly disappear. [1] Oils - In October, the available capacity of US renewable diesel remained stable at 4.989 billion gallons per year. The use of soybean oil as a raw material for biofuel production decreased by 47 million pounds to 1.006 billion pounds, reaching a 6 - month low. As of the end of November, the US soybean oil inventory soared to 2.164 billion pounds, an 18 - month high. [2] - Due to strong monthly production offsetting the moderate growth of exports, Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December is expected to rise to the highest level in nearly seven years. [2] - After the holiday, the oil sector declined significantly. The reasons include the sharp increase in US soybean oil inventory, uncertainty in biofuel demand, the pressure of rising palm oil inventory, and the possibility of resuming Canadian rapeseed imports. [2]

农产品团队 | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 汤冰华 | | 从业资格证号： | F3038544 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015153 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518793 | | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年01月04日星期日 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 摘要 软商品板块 白糖 【市场 ...

2026 年 1 月 5 日 豆粕：假期美豆收跌，连粕或低位震荡 豆一：节前政策情绪偏强，节后或震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 资料来源：文华财经，卓创，汇易，国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1 月 2 日 CBOT 大豆日评：2026 年芝加哥大豆期货开局下跌。北京德润林 2026 年 1 月 3 日消息：周 五是 2026 年首个交易日，芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）大豆期货收盘下跌，因为巴西大豆价格更具竞争 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | +37（+0.88%） 4241 | na na | | | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2749 -19 （-0.69%） | na na | | | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 104 ...

油脂油料：需求旺季VS供应宽松 ，油粕上方压力大 （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 12月国内外油脂油料价格偏弱运行，油脂价格先跌后涨，蛋白粕价格偏弱震荡。菜系表现强于豆系，棕 榈油先弱后强。现货表现强于期货，基差走强。 豆类方面，1月巴西马托格罗索将开始收割大豆，大豆丰产压力面临兑现时刻。当下巴西存在销售压 力，一方面因为待销售大豆量高于往年，丰产叠加前期销售慢；另一方面，巴西大豆需求支撑减弱，中 国有部分需求选择对美豆政策性采购，挤占了巴西大豆可出口量，巴西国内压榨量也不及预期。巴西12 月出口预估不断下调、升贴水回落都是侧面验证。1月在巴西大豆收割启动之际，巴西大豆价格或跌破 400美元/吨，打压全球大豆价格。美豆方面，中国继续政策性采购，采购总量预期不变但时间延长，因 为美豆价格高于巴西大豆，中国外采购量放缓。市场等待1月供需报告中对美豆产量、库存的最终定 性，以衡量美豆和巴西大豆的价差。相当来说，CBOT大豆盘面的下跌压力低于巴西大豆升贴水。国内 来说，进口成本下跌或导致期货盘面价格重心下移。但更为重要的是，一季度供需盲盒将揭晓。目前市 场对国内一季度供需预 ...