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黑色建材日报-20250815
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 01:58
Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]
有色金属日报-20250814
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 11:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a bias towards short - term bearish sentiment but limited trading opportunities on the current market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor market operability [1] Core Views - The prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory changes, and macro - economic data. Different metals show different price trends and investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Category Copper - The main contract of Shanghai copper dropped below 79,000 yuan. Copper prices may adjust to 78,500 yuan under the resistance above. The spot copper price was 79,435 yuan, with the premium in Guangdong expanding to 60 yuan and in Shanghai to 210 yuan. SMM social inventory decreased by 6,000 tons to 125,600 tons. High - position short positions are recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum slightly declined, and the spot in East China turned to a premium of 10 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory slightly increased by 0.1 million tons, while aluminum rod social inventory decreased by 0.9 million tons. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor. The spot - AL cross - variety spread may narrow. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have risen above 50,000 tons. There is adjustment pressure on the alumina futures market [2] Zinc - The fundamentals of supply increase and demand weakness establish the logic of short - selling on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and long positions are being reduced. The term structure of Shanghai zinc is flattening, which helps to make hidden inventory visible. SMM zinc social inventory has continued to rise to 129,200 tons. LME zinc inventory is as low as 78,500 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants is 42.1%. The fundamentals are stronger overseas than in China, and it is difficult to open the import window. The import concentrate TC has room for further rebound. As the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" approaches, the downward adjustment space of zinc is limited. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Smelter maintenance and restart coexist, demand is insufficient, and short positions are increasing. As delivery approaches, the spot - futures spread is narrowing. Refined - scrap lead price is inverted by 25 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers' willingness to purchase at low prices has improved, with a preference for primary lead. There is limited downward space for Shanghai lead under cost support. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, focusing on the implementation of regular smelter maintenance in late August [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel has rebounded, and market trading is active. As the "anti - involution" theme in the domestic market comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will return to its fundamentals more quickly. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has weakened recently. Ferronickel inventory remains basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 million tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. It is recommended to actively enter short positions as Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound [6] Tin - The intraday decline of Shanghai tin has widened to below 268,000 yuan. It is recommended that downstream and mid - stream enterprises choose low - price points for pricing. The spot tin price has been reduced by 700 yuan to 269,500 yuan. Short - term long positions can be considered [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuates, and market trading is active. There is no clear trading theme in the market, and there are significant long - position profit - taking orders. The issue of September delivery limits the upside space. The spot price is 81,000 yuan. Downstream inquiries are active, and spot market transactions have improved. The total market inventory has slightly declined to 142,000 tons, smelter inventory has decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, downstream inventory has increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and trader inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. There is an obvious transfer of cargo rights, and downstream enterprises are increasing their replenishment efforts as prices decline. The latest quotation of Australian ore is nearly $1,000 [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon has reduced positions and closed at 8,675 yuan/ton. It is difficult to achieve capacity self - discipline and clearance, and market sentiment is mainly affected by the linkage of "anti - involution" varieties. On the spot side, the price of Xinjiang 421 silicon remains stable at 9,150 yuan/ton. Against the background of increased production by large enterprises in Xinjiang and in Sichuan and Yunnan, the inventory in delivery warehouses has increased significantly, and there is still hedging pressure in the high - price range of the futures market. SMM expects the polysilicon production schedule to exceed 130,000 tons, with a clear marginal increase in demand. Supported by photovoltaic policy expectations, there is strong support below the futures market. It will mainly fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon has closed down above 50,000 yuan/ton. The recent correction is partly due to the sentiment transmission from the coking coal variety. On the spot side, according to SMM, the expected output of polysilicon in August will increase to over 130,000 tons (a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons), the increase in downstream silicon wafer production schedules is limited, and high inventory suppresses the upward elasticity of the spot price. The price of N - type re - feeding material remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. Although the sentiment of "anti - involution" varieties has been under pressure for adjustment recently, the probability of the implementation of capacity management in key industries is relatively high. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, with strong support below. It is recommended to lightly build long positions near 50,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [10]
综合晨报-20250814
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 10:43
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]
新能源及有色金属日报:情绪有所消退,工业硅多晶硅盘面回落-20250814
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 07:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, with both supply and demand increasing and a slight reduction in inventory. However, there is significant over - capacity and high inventory pressure. The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. For polysilicon, short - term downstream product prices are under pressure, and there is a large inventory accumulation pressure. The short - term market may maintain wide fluctuations, but it is suitable for long - term low - level layout [3][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price declined. The main contract 2511 opened at 8800 yuan/ton and closed at 8600 yuan/ton, a change of - 305 yuan/ton (- 3.43%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 284,500 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,701 lots, a change of 43 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable [1]. - In August, the number of open furnaces increased in both the southwest and northwest regions. The consumption side saw a significant increase in polysilicon production, while silicone, aluminum alloy, and exports were relatively stable. There was an overall slight reduction in inventory, but the total inventory in the industry was still high, about 940,000 tons, equivalent to about 3 months of consumption [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term industrial silicon futures market is expected to fluctuate widely following commodities such as coking coal and polysilicon. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On August 13, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures declined, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.11% from the previous day. The position of the main contract was 132,463 lots, and the trading volume was 395,645 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, while the weekly production of polysilicon and silicon wafers also increased [4]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, the polysilicon market is under pressure, and the market may maintain wide fluctuations. It is recommended to operate within a range for single - side trading. In the long term, it is suitable to layout long positions at low levels. There are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6][8].
方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250814
Fang Zheng Zhong Qi Qi Huo· 2025-08-14 03:03
Report Summary 1. Market Logic and Trading Strategies Carbonate Lithium - **Market Logic**: On Wednesday, the SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium index price was 80,946 yuan/ton, up 2,822 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Most enterprises were in a wait - and - see mood, but due to some downstream enterprises' rigid procurement needs and the upstream and traders' reluctance to sell, the transaction price of carbonate lithium spot continued to rise significantly. Last week, the output of carbonate lithium was 19,556 tons, an increase of 2,288 tons from the previous week. Since mid - July, there have been news disturbances in lithium production, increasing concerns about the production stability of Yichun lithium mica mines. The total sample inventory last week was 142,418 tons, rising 692 tons from the previous week. In the long - term, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates in the short - term. Upstream and downstream enterprises are advised to seize hedging opportunities according to their own risk management needs. The support for the main contract is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan, and the resistance is 88,000 - 90,000 yuan [4]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Logic**: Driven by profits, the main production areas resumed production last week, with the operating rate significantly increasing. Thanks to the synchronous resumption of downstream polysilicon production and rising procurement demand, the inventory of industrial silicon manufacturers decreased slowly. However, the market speculative sentiment is relatively cautious, and the acceptance of high - price goods is still low. It is expected that the spot price of industrial silicon will remain stable in the short - term, and the futures trend may be more guided by news [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand contradiction is limited, but the high - level inventory still suppresses the price. Policy support exists, and the anti - involution sentiment may fluctuate. It is recommended to go long at low prices or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options on dips. The support interval is 8,200 - 8,300 yuan, and the resistance interval is 9,200 - 9,300 yuan [6]. Polysilicon - **Market Logic**: There are rumors that the industry may reach a consensus on joint production cuts to control the output in August and promote the return of the total inventory to a reasonable range. If true, it may lead to large - scale inventory reduction. However, the terminal demand is still weak, and the upside space for prices is limited. The futures price has a large premium over the spot price, and the increasing warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. It is expected that the polysilicon market will fluctuate widely at a high level [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Existing long positions can be partially liquidated at high prices, and short put options sold at low prices can be hedged at high prices. The support level for the main contract is 47,000 - 48,000 yuan, and the resistance level is 55,000 - 56,000 yuan [7]. 2. Plate Strategy Recommendation and Spot - Futures Price Changes Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Resistance Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 09 | Driven by news | 65,000 - 66,000 yuan | 78,000 - 83,000 yuan | Oscillate strongly | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [13] | | Industrial Silicon 09 | Driven by news | 8,200 - 8,300 yuan | 9,200 - 9,300 yuan | Fluctuate widely | Sell put options on dips [13] | | Polysilicon 09 | Driven by news | 45,000 - 46,000 yuan | 55,000 - 56,000 yuan | Oscillate at a high level | Sell put options on dips [13] | Spot - Futures Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 85,100 yuan | 3.13% | 1,245,424 | 392,675 | 35,677 | 21,679 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,600 yuan | - 2.71% | 510,280 | 284,500 | 5,640 | 50,701 | | Polysilicon | 51,290 yuan | - 2.11% | 395,645 | 132,463 | - 3,592 | 5,150 | [13] | 3. Fundamental Data Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Inventory**: Last week, the output of carbonate lithium increased, and the inventory resumed its upward trend after a brief decline. The concentrated restocking on the demand side was remarkable, and the market's concern about supply stability is expected to support the lithium price [3]. - **Downstream**: Although the "two new" policies continue to support, the demand growth rate of new energy vehicles is gradually declining as the penetration rate exceeds 50% [3]. Industrial Silicon - **Production and Inventory**: The main production areas increased production last week, and the inventory of manufacturers decreased slowly due to the increase in downstream demand [5]. - **Downstream**: The downstream polysilicon industry resumed production, and the procurement demand increased [5]. Polysilicon - **Production and Inventory**: There are rumors of joint production cuts. If true, it may lead to inventory reduction. The terminal demand is weak, and the upside space for prices is limited [7]. - **Downstream**: The downstream demand has not weakened in the short - term, but the domestic demand may decline after the overseas policy window closes in the fourth quarter [7].
【安泰科】工业硅周评—价格维持平稳、观望情绪加剧(2025年8月13日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-08-13 09:35
Core Viewpoint - The domestic industrial silicon market is experiencing price stability in the spot market, while futures prices have slightly declined, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid conflicting supply and demand expectations [1][2]. Price Trends - The main futures contract closed at 8600 CNY/ton, down from 8700 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.15% decrease. The national average price remains stable at 9196 CNY/ton, with specific grades priced as follows: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton, 441 at 9174 CNY/ton, and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton. Regional prices include Xinjiang at 8840 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10020 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 9900 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The market is currently in a contradictory state, with government policies providing positive guidance for the medium to long term, while industry expectations for short-term supply and demand remain pessimistic. Major domestic producers are gradually resuming production, with operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan increasing by 50% and 30%, respectively. However, most production is hedged through futures contracts, limiting immediate sales volume and willingness to lower prices [1][2]. Demand Insights - Although downstream polysilicon and organosilicon companies are increasing their operating rates, their purchasing intentions are low as they anticipate lower prices for procurement [1][2]. Future Outlook - The market is expected to maintain a weak balance with both supply and demand increasing in August, leading to a slight downward trend in prices [2].
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250813
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 08:47
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. It is recommended to consider medium - to - long - term long positions on dips if the price later falls below 8,000 yuan [3][4]. - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries remains flat [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract is 8,600 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan; the position of the main contract is 284,500 lots, an increase of 5,640 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 94,567 lots, a decrease of 4,841 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 50,658 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon is - 20 yuan, an increase of 10 yuan [3]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 800 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan; the DMC spot price is 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Upstream Situation**: The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. - **Industry Situation**: The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, an increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [3]. - **Downstream Situation**: The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [3]. 3.2 Industry News - On August 12, the Lithium Industry Branch of the China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association issued an initiative to relevant enterprises in the lithium industry chain to strengthen upstream - downstream cooperation and maintain industrial security, and resist disorderly competition, market monopoly, and false publicity [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is soliciting opinions on the "Draft Amendment to the Price Law (Exposure Draft)" [3]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In Southwest China, with the deepening of the wet season, the electricity price advantage is more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan continues to increase, and the output in Southwest China is expected to increase next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low enthusiasm for resuming production due to thin profits, and the overall output remains relatively stable [3]. - **Demand Side**: - **Organic Silicon**: The market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, which drives the demand for industrial silicon to some extent [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, which strongly supports the rigid demand for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed. The inventory continues to increase, the price drops, and it is in a passive inventory reduction stage, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [3].
市场供需短期相对平衡 预计工业硅区间震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with industrial silicon futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.36% to 8695.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Side - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase as the hydropower season progresses in the southwest region, leading to a rise in production from silicon factories [1] - New furnace installations in Sichuan and Yunnan are on the rise, with expectations of a week-on-week production increase in the southwest region [1] - In Xinjiang, while some large factories maintain stable production, smaller silicon plants are less motivated to resume production due to low profit margins from previous low prices, resulting in overall stable production levels [1] Demand Side - There is an anticipated significant increase in the production of polysilicon in August, which will boost demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy sector is operating steadily, while demand remains relatively average; organic silicon also has production increase expectations [1] - Despite a continuous decrease in standard warehouse receipts, the overall industry inventory remains at a high level [1] Market Overview - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, leading to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term, although there is still pressure on inventory absorption [1] - Market sentiment has slightly diminished, but related products like coking coal have seen significant price increases, providing support for the lower end of the market [1] - The main contract is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]
工业硅数据日报-20250813
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 03:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding as factories in the northwest and southwest regions continue to resume production. On the demand side, the weekly output of downstream polysilicon and silicone has increased. From a balance perspective, the resumption of production on the supply side will impact the supply - demand balance, and combined with hedging pressure, the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Different contracts (SI2508 - SI2512) have different closing prices, price changes (ranging from -1.12% to 0.05%), and trading volumes. For example, SI2508 has a closing price of 8800 with a -0.68% change and a trading volume of -16; SI2509 has a closing price of 8800, a -1.07% change, and a trading volume of 68175 [1] Spot Market - Different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 (unoxygenated), 553 (hydrogenated), 421, etc.) have different prices in different regions. For example, 553 (unoxygenated) has a price of 9200 in the market, and 421 has a price of 9750. In ports like Huangpu and Tianjin, prices also vary. Additionally, prices of related products like DMC, 107 glue, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy ADC12 are provided [1] Spread - The spreads between different contracts (e.g., si2508 - si2509, si2509 - si2510) and between different spot products (e.g., 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot) are presented. For example, si2508 - si2509 has a spread of 0 with a change of 65, and 421 spot - 553 oxygenated spot has a spread of 350 [1] Warehouse and Warehouse Receipt - Information about various warehouses and their storage capacities, premium/discount standards, and changes in warehouse receipts is provided. The total storage capacity is 31.55 million tons, and the total warehouse receipts decreased by 102 from 49890 to 49788 [1]
瑞达期货工业硅产业日报-20250812
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 08:51
果后,小幅回落,预计后续仍有部分回落动能,操作上建议,若后期跌破8000元,可以考虑中长线逢低布局 多单。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 求预期仍在,对工业硅刚需支撑较强。不过,多晶硅价格近期呈微降态势,企业成本压力下,对工业硅采 数据来源第三方,观点仅供参考。市场有风险,投资需谨慎! 购价格有压价诉求。铝合金领域,企业多按需补库,库存继续增长,价格下行,处于被动去库存,对工业 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 硅需求来说难有拉动。整体而言,三大下游行业对工业硅总需求依旧呈现持平。今日工业硅在冲击9000无 免责声明 工业硅产业日报 2025-08-12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 ...