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黑色建材日报-20251229
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-29 01:02
黑色建材日报 2025-12-29 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号:F3030112 交易咨询号:Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 合约收盘价为 3283 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 3 元/吨(0.091%)。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.239 万手,环比减少 6522 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 【策略观点】 上周五商品市场整体情绪偏好,成材价格延续底部区间内震荡。从基本面看,螺纹钢本周产量微增,表需 回落,库存水平处于五年低位;热轧卷板方面,产量持续回落,表观需求小幅走强,库存延 ...
镍:资金与产业力量博弈,关注结构机会的出现不锈钢:基本面约束弹性,但关注印尼政策风险
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-12-28 11:19
2025年12月28日 国泰君安期货研究周报 观点与策略 | 镍:资金与产业力量博弈,关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢:基本面约束弹性,但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 工业硅:关注供应端扰动,情绪发酵或推高盘面 | 12 | | 多晶硅:震荡格局,关注市场情绪 | 12 | | 碳酸锂:基差背离待修正,正极厂启动检修 | 21 | | 棕榈油:减产逐步兑现,短期价格反弹 | 29 | | 豆油:美豆企稳,豆油震荡运行 | 29 | | 豆粕:震荡,规避元旦假期风险 | 35 | | 豆一:现货稳定,盘面震荡 | 35 | | 玉米:关注现货 | 40 | | 白糖:维持弱基差预期 | 46 | | 棉花:震荡偏强,注意市场情绪变化20251228 | 53 | | 生猪:惜售情绪旺,等待元旦后现货印证 | 60 | | 花生:关注现货 | 66 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 镍:资金与产业力量博弈,关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢:基本面约束弹性,但关注印尼政策风险 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 ...
有机硅减产加剧,硅片电池涨价
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-28 10:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillating / Polysilicon: Oscillating [4] Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and it is expected to continue accumulating inventory in Q1 26 during the dry - season. It is advisable to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, although there may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified, so it is more advisable to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices [3][17][18] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2605 contract of industrial silicon increased by 190 yuan/ton week - on - week to 8880 yuan/ton. The SMM spot East China oxygen - blown 553 increased by 50 yuan/ton to 9250 yuan/ton, while Xinjiang 99 decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton. The PS2605 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1290 yuan/ton to 58955 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feedstock increased by 700 yuan/ton week - on - week to 53900 yuan/ton [10] 2. Intensified Production Cuts in Organic Silicon, Rising Prices of Silicon Wafers and Batteries Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated upward this week. Some large factories in Xinjiang increased production by 2 furnaces and some had 2 furnaces under maintenance, with the total unchanged. Inner Mongolia had 4 furnaces under maintenance, and Gansu increased production by 4 furnaces after previous maintenance. SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.2 million tons week - on - week, and sample factory inventory increased by 0.31 million tons. The industrial silicon market is in tight balance in December, but may accumulate inventory in Q1 next year if production cuts are not sustained. After the price increase, some large factories started hedging sales, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low. Attention should be paid to whether the polysilicon sector will cut production [12] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon remained stable this week. Some companies reduced production loads. The overall enterprise start - up rate was 68.33%, with a weekly output of 45200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.42%. The inventory was 44000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2%. With the supply contraction and inventory decline, the price may rise steadily after the pre - festival restocking demand is released [12][13] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. After the establishment of the platform company, the spot price of polysilicon rose again. As of December 25, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 303,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons. The production schedule in January is not clear, but the shipment volume will be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons. There may be a situation of "high prices but low trading volume" from January to February, but the polysilicon spot is still considered bullish [14] Silicon Wafers - The price of silicon wafers strengthened significantly this week. The expected production volume in December is 45GW and may decline further in January. As of December 25, the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 21.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.19GW. Four leading enterprises raised their quotes on the 25th. Attention should be paid to whether batteries and components can pass on the price [15] Battery Cells - The price of battery cells rose rapidly this week due to the rising silver paste price. As of December 22, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 10.06GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.62GW. Leading battery cell manufacturers raised their prices again, but the price increase of components was less than expected. If the price cannot be passed on, the start - up rate in January is expected to decline [15] Components - The price of components remained basically stable this week. Affected by the rising battery cell price, component enterprises raised their quotes. The domestic end - of - year installation demand ended, and overseas orders had no significant increase. Professional component factories will start reducing production in January, and the domestic production volume in January may fall below 30GW. As of December 15, the finished - product inventory of Chinese photovoltaic components was 31.7GW, a week - on - week increase of 0.5GW [16] 3. Investment Recommendations - For industrial silicon, although the market rumors and positive sentiment in the commodity market drove the price up, from the fundamental perspective, it is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities after rebounds. For polysilicon, it is recommended to focus on long - buying opportunities at low prices, but investors should hold positions carefully due to large price fluctuations and risk - control measures from the exchange [3][17][18] 4. Hot News Compilation - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the minimum opening order quantity, trading fee standard, and trading limit of polysilicon futures contracts. The Zhihui Photovoltaic adjusted the price limit range and trading margin standard of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures contracts during the New Year holiday in 2026 [19][20] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - This part mainly includes various data charts of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, such as the price, output, inventory, and profit data of each link, with specific data sources provided [21][30][34]
华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报:光伏下游库存低位-20251228
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-12-28 09:25
期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息,关于信息的准确性与完整性,建议投资者谨慎判断,据此入市,风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 光伏下游库存低位 20251228 作者:陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号:F03100622 交易咨询号:Z0021111 审核:黄忠夏,从业资格号:F0285615,交易咨询号:Z0010771 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息,关于信息的准确性与完整性,建议投资者谨慎判断,据此入市,风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息,关于信息的准确性与完整性,建议投资者谨慎判断,据此入市,风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息,关于信息的准确性与完整性,建议投资者谨慎判断,据此入市,风险自担。 u 12月26日,市场监管总局在安徽合肥对光伏行业开展价格竞争秩序合规指导。市场监管总 ...
硅业分会:工业硅供需双弱库存累积 市场震荡延续
智通财经网· 2025-12-26 10:55
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][2]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation in the spot market has increased due to volatility in futures prices [2]. - Some manufacturers are either maintaining firm quotes, refraining from quoting, or selling below market average to improve cash flow, resulting in a low operating rate [2]. - The current low-price environment is suppressing production enthusiasm, with many existing capacities used for internal settlements or long-term sales [2]. - Overall, the supply side is supported by costs, but slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to inventory accumulation in some regions [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon [2]. - The photovoltaic industry is generally experiencing losses, further suppressing industrial silicon consumption [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market saw a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 CNY/ton to 21,480 CNY/ton), it has limited impact on driving demand for industrial silicon [2]. Price Trends - The comprehensive price of industrial silicon in China as of December 24 is 9,245 CNY/ton, down 5 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][3]. - Specific prices include 5 at 8,713 CNY/ton (down 94 CNY/ton) and 4 at 9,169 CNY/ton (up 51 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 CNY/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 CNY/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 CNY/ton [1][3]. Market Outlook - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue its range-bound fluctuations in the short term, with future trends dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [2].
工业硅周评—供需双弱库存累积 市场震荡延续(2025年12月24日)
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon market is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to price fluctuations constrained by cost support and weak demand [1][3]. Supply Side - Production remains stable across major production areas, particularly in Xinjiang, but price differentiation has increased due to volatile futures prices. Some manufacturers are either maintaining high quotes or choosing not to quote at all, while others are selling below market average to improve cash flow [2]. - The operating rates in regions like Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Gansu are at low levels due to a prolonged low-price environment, which has suppressed production enthusiasm. Overall transaction volumes remain low despite some attempts to support prices [2]. - The pricing mechanism is becoming more financialized, with a growing trend of using a "futures price + basis" procurement model, enhancing the linkage between spot prices and futures markets [2]. Demand Side - Demand from downstream sectors, particularly the organic silicon and polysilicon industries, is weak, leading to reduced procurement of industrial silicon. The overall support for demand is insufficient, with risks of further demand contraction highlighted by losses across the photovoltaic industry chain [2]. - Although the aluminum alloy market has seen a slight increase in futures prices (from 21,110 yuan/ton to 21,480 yuan/ton), this has not significantly boosted demand for industrial silicon [2]. Market Overview - The industrial silicon market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation and continued price fluctuations. While supply is supported by costs, slow inventory depletion and reduced downstream production are leading to demand contraction, resulting in price resistance [3]. - Short-term price expectations indicate continued range-bound fluctuations, with future trends heavily dependent on the recovery pace of downstream demand and the progress of inventory depletion [3]. Price Data - As of December 24, the national average price for industrial silicon is 9,245 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous week. Specific grades show varied price movements, with 553 at 8,713 yuan/ton (down 94 yuan/ton) and 441 at 9,169 yuan/ton (up 51 yuan/ton) [1][4]. - Regional prices vary, with Xinjiang at 8,810 yuan/ton, Yunnan at 10,005 yuan/ton, and Sichuan at 10,050 yuan/ton [4].
情绪有所提振,多晶硅大幅上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 03:22
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve but still maintain an inventory accumulation pattern. The industrial silicon futures price is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news, and there may be upside potential if there are relevant policies. For polysilicon, manufacturers' production cuts and positive policies support prices, and the consumer end is boosted, with the price expected to fluctuate upwards [3][6] Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated upward. The main contract 2605 opened at 8820 yuan/ton and closed at 8835 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (0.28%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 was 216554 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 24, 2025, was 9259 lots, unchanged from the previous day [1] - **Supply**: The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9500 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8600 - 8800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat. As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 55.3 tons, down 1.43% from the previous week [1] - **Consumption**: The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13500 - 13700 yuan/ton. The weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable, and the expected output in December was around 11.4 tons, with limited change in demand for industrial silicon. The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly, with a possible reduction of about 5000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the demand in the aluminum alloy downstream weakened marginally [2] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On December 25, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 57780 yuan/ton and closing at 60760 yuan/ton, up 4.80% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 132126 lots, and the trading volume was 124231 lots [4] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable. The price of N - type material was 49.70 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory increased, and silicon wafer inventory decreased. The weekly output of polysilicon was 25000.00 tons, up 1.20% week - on - week, and the silicon wafer output was 10.67GW, down 12.18% week - on - week [4] - **Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were basically stable, with only slight changes in some products [4][5] Strategy Industrial Silicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation [3] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4] Polysilicon - **Unilateral**: Short - term range - bound operation, with the main contract expected to fluctuate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [6] - **Other Strategies**: No suggestions for inter - delivery, inter - commodity, spot - futures, and options operations [6]
五矿期货黑色建材日报-20251226
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 01:30
黑色建材日报 2025-12-26 从业资格号:F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号:F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3127 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 9 元/吨(-0.28%)。当日注册仓单 58627 吨, 环比减少 2057 吨。主力合约持仓量为 158.1839 万手,环比减少 15590 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇 总价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3310 元/吨, 环比减少 10 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力 合约收盘价为 3280 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 5 元/吨(-0.15%)。 当日注册仓单 104588 吨, 环比增加 295 吨。主力合约持仓量为 123.8912 万手,环比增加 9350 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3280 元/吨, 环比增加 10 元/吨。 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号:F03098415 交易咨询号:Z00 ...
广发早知道:汇总版-20251226
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 01:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It details the current market situation, influencing factors, and future outlooks for each category, and provides corresponding trading strategies. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - **Copper**: High copper prices have suppressed terminal demand, leading to significant spot discounts and inventory accumulation. Upward drivers include further deterioration of overseas inventory structure and improved interest - rate cut expectations; downward drivers are weak demand. Suggest a light - position holding of a protective put option portfolio [2]. - **PP**: The basis weakens, and trading improves. Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot coal prices vary, and the upside of the futures price is limited. Switch to short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Soybean Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, but cost supports the downside. Concerns about customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [4]. - **Silver**: Supply tightness and capital drive prices to maintain a strong - side oscillation. Hold long positions, and reduce or lock positions before the Spring Festival [5]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: A - share indices rise, and the basis of the four major stock index futures contracts is repaired. The short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the index rebounds [7][8][9]. - **News**: Beijing eases housing purchase restrictions, and the US raises IPO liquidity thresholds [8][9]. - **Funding**: A - share trading volume is stable, and the central bank conducts net injections [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try a bull - spread strategy on the CSI 300 index [9]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Treasury bond futures decline, and short - term bonds are relatively strong [10]. - **Funding**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations result in net injections, and the funding rate is seasonally up but controllable [10]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Consider going long on the T contract on pullbacks and participate in the 2603 contract cash - and - carry arbitrage and basis - widening strategies [12]. Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Overseas markets are closed for holidays. Some precious metals experience price adjustments, with platinum strengthening and palladium once hitting the daily limit down [13][15]. - **Outlook**: The medium - to - long - term price of precious metals has an upward trend, but short - term fluctuations exist. Adopt a long - position strategy on dips [16]. Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index**: SCFIS and SCFI indices show an upward trend [19]. - **Fundamentals**: Container capacity increases, and demand in the eurozone and the US is weak [19]. - **Logic**: The futures contract is in a consolidation phase, with limited drivers, and is expected to oscillate in the short term [19]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: High prices suppress demand, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Hold protective put options [24]. - **Alumina**: The market is oversupplied, and the price is expected to oscillate around the cash - cost line [26]. - **Aluminum**: The market is in a state of macro - positive expectations versus fundamental pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [29]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: High costs and weak demand limit price movements, and the price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range [31]. - **Zinc**: TC stabilizes, demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [36]. - **Tin**: Supply is improving, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [40]. - **Nickel**: The market is affected by expectations of tightened ore supply, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [42]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of strong expectations versus weak reality, and the price is expected to oscillate and adjust [46]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a state of high - level oscillation, with strong capital sentiment. The price is expected to oscillate widely [50]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is in a high - level oscillation, with demand weakness. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [53]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Pay attention to production - cut implementation [55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production is cut, and inventory is reduced. The price is expected to oscillate. Consider exiting the 1 - 5 positive spread and looking for opportunities to go long on the 5 - month iron - ore ratio [57][58]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a short - term range - trading strategy on the 05 contract [60]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply may decrease, and demand is weak. Switch to short - selling on rallies [66]. - **Coke**: The third price cut is implemented, and the price is expected to decline. Switch to short - selling on rallies [70][71]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply is reduced, and demand is stable. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [73]. - **Silicon Manganese**: High inventory suppresses price rebounds, and the price is expected to run weakly. Consider short - selling when the price rebounds above the Ningxia spot cost [76]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: South American harvest expectations suppress prices, and customs policies affect domestic supply. Be cautious in short - term operations [79]. - **Pigs**: Seasonal demand supports the market, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [81]. - **Corn**: Supply and demand are balanced, and the price is in a stalemate. Pay attention to selling sentiment and policy releases [84]. - **Sugar**: The international market is bearish, and the domestic market may have limited rebounds. Adopt a bearish - on - rebounds strategy [85]. - **Cotton**: US cotton oscillates at the bottom, and domestic cotton prices are expected to rise. The supply pressure is released, and the long - term outlook is optimistic [88]. - **Eggs**: Supply pressure is high but eases marginally. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate at the bottom [92]. - **Oils**: Palm oil may continue to rise but also faces downward risks. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil have different market situations. Adopt corresponding strategies according to different varieties [93][95][96]. - **Jujubes**: The price rebounds. Pay attention to sales in the distribution areas. Consider selling call options [97]. - **Apples**: The price oscillates. Consider closing long positions [98]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Valuation increases, and downstream feedback is negative. The upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [100]. - **PTA**: Follow PX trends, and the upside is limited. Reduce long positions on rallies and consider long - term low - buying [102]. - **Short - Fiber**: Supply is high, and demand is weak. Follow raw - material fluctuations [104]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply is expected to increase, and processing fees may be compressed. Adopt the same strategy as PTA and short - sell processing fees on rallies [106]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to decrease, but the cost support is limited. The price is expected to oscillate. Adopt a 5 - 9 reverse - arbitrage strategy [108]. - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in a range [109]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to oscillate in a range [111]. - **LLDPE**: Supply and demand are weak. Go long on the 2605 contract in the short term [113]. - **PP**: Pay attention to the expansion of PDH profits [3]. - **Methanol**: The market is expected to balance in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the contraction of MTO05 [114]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the price is expected to decline [116]. - **PVC**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after a rebound [117]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is stable, and demand is weak. Short - sell on rallies [120]. - **Glass**: The price is under pressure. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [120]. - **Natural Rubber**: The price is driven by macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are weak. Try short - selling around 15700 [122]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. Avoid short - selling the BR2602 contract [124][125].
《有色》日报-20251225
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 01:45
| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月25日 星期四 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 我值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日 涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 94690 | 93470 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -310 | -215 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 94895 | 03580 | +1315.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | -175 | -125 | -50.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 94620 | 93400 | +1220.00 | 1.31% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜开贴水 | -380 | -285 | -95.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 3544 | 3 ...