"莫道今年春将尽，明年春色倍还人"，在12月6日以"耐心资本·定投中国"为主题的21世纪基金业年会上，泉果基金公募投资部总 经理赵诣以这句充满诗意的标题概述了他对明年市场的积极态度。他认为，理解中国市场的投资价值，必须超越短期的波动与 噪音，回归到构成其独特竞争优势的根本性维度上。 21世纪经济报道记者 杨娜娜 广州报道 12月5日至6日，由南方财经全媒体集团主办，21世纪数字传媒承办，以"共识的力量——创新涌动与中国资产重估"为主题的南 方财经论坛2025年会，在广州南方财经大厦盛大召开。 中国经济如星辰大海，具有长久韧性与进化力 "中国经济是一片大海"，赵诣指出其核心在于中国已经形成的庞大生态系统和难以复制的规模经济，"这是理解中国经济韧性的 关键"。 他援引截至2024年末的数据指出，这种规模优势渗透于传统领域和新兴经济领域。我们有超14亿人口构成（其中有超过4亿的中 等收入群体）的消费市场，任何产品和服务在中国都可能找到一个"国家级"的市场容量；2024年中国货物贸易进出口总值达6.16 万亿美元，连续8年稳居全球第一；我们的新能源汽车产销量连续9年全球第一，风电、光伏装机容量均稳居世界第一；以及位 ...

6 证券研究报告 点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 晨会纪要 核[心Ta观bl点e_：Summary] 一、宏观经济组： 事件 1： 12 月 10 日早 9 点半国家统计局公布 11 月中国物价数据。 评论 1： 中国 11 月 CPI 同比为 0.7%，预期为 0.7%，前值 10 月为 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比为 1.2%，， 前值为 1.2%。11 月 CPI 环比为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%，去年同期是-0.6%，可见 11 月 CPI 同比的回升主要受基数的影响；核心 CPI 环比同样为-0.1%，前值为 0.2%。 由于 CPI 的回升，核心 CPI 与 CPI 之间同比差距，由上月 1%缩小至 0.5%。 11 月食品环比为 0.5%，前值为 0.3%，而去年同期是-2.7%。其中，鲜菜环比上涨 7.2%，是影响 CPI 同比回升的关键因素；而猪肉下跌 2.2%，蛋类和水产品环比均 下跌 1.8%，鲜果下跌 0.3%。 11 月非食品环比为-0.2%，前值为 0.2%。其中，其它用品和服务环比上涨 1.2%， 衣着上涨 0.7%，医疗保健环比上涨 0.1%；而交通通讯环比下跌 ...

智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2026年度，美联储降息周期下，海外需求或于2026年进入新 一轮上行周期，工程机械出口有望延续景气，形成国内外共振局面。内需有望β筑底需求景气度改善， 推荐FA/注塑机/检测/机床行业的α标的；高景气赛道上，该行认为AI催化下的PCB设备/液冷产业链/柴 发&燃气轮机迎来黄金期。新技术方面，人形机器人量产仍需打通降本关键一环，国产零部件厂商有望 充分受益。 东吴证券主要观点如下： 装备出海：油服设备面向沙漠寻蓝海市场，工程机械出口一带一路景气高 工程机械：2025年工程机械板块国内全面复苏&出口温和复苏，看好盈利质量持续提升。内需方面，在 资金到位情况的扰动下，该行判断此轮周期将呈现斜率较低但周期较长的特征；外需方面，美联储降息 周期下，海外需求有望于2026年进入新一轮上行周期，形成国内外共振局面。工程机械重点推荐出口盈 利贡献较高的三一重工(600031.SH)、徐工机械(000425.SZ)、中联重科(000157.SZ)、柳工(000528.SZ)、 恒立液压(601100.SH)。 半导体设备：景气复苏+国产替代共振，AI&存储周期带动设备高增。国产设备率先 ...

国外 许多投资者预计，美联储本周在降息的同时将释放偏鹰的前瞻指引，反映出FOMC内部对是否应继续降 息存在分歧。然而，高盛首席美国经济学家David Mericle认为，美联储很可能不会完全排除明年1月再 次行动的可能性。"指望FOMC通过强烈暗示'1月将暂停降息'而把自己逼入死角是不现实的，因为如果 到那时劳动力市场仍在明显走弱，降息仍可能是合适的。"他指出，自9月就业数据发布以来，官方尚未 公布新的劳动力市场统计，这使得票委们在本周会议中更不愿过早锁定1月政策路径。"在缺乏最新就业 数据的情况下，决策者会格外谨慎，避免束缚自己的政策灵活性。"因此，尽管本周可能降息，美联储 或将刻意保持措辞开放，为1月根据经济数据（尤其是劳动力市场动态）保留进一步宽松的空间。 2. 巴克莱：料美联储本周将降息25BP，明年3月及6月各降息25BP 巴克莱预计，美联储将于本周议息会议上将利率下调25BP至3.5%至3.75%区间，会后声明料将加入鹰派 措辞，暗示明年1月将暂缓降息。该行目前维持美国明年3月及6月各降息25个基点的预测。巴克莱认 为，新的经济预测摘要可能显示经济预测变化不大，点阵图则将反映2026年及2027年 ...

中信证券研报认为，结合全球"两机"（航空发动机和燃气轮机）OEM与国内配套供应商在近期的财报 表现，梳理目前的燃机订单和产能情况，经中信证券测算，预计至2028年全球燃机的供需逐步实现平 衡。在未来主要OEM的新一轮扩产周期中，我国供应链将充分且持续受益于下游订单与交付的高景气 度。燃气轮机行业受益于海外AIDC建设带来的用电供需紧张、后市场维保的快速起量，有望持续保持 较高的产业景气度。 ...

Summary of Gas Turbine Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The gas turbine power generation accounts for 45% of the U.S. power grid, with expectations for continued growth over the next 3-5 years due to the demand from data centers building their own power plants [1][2][3] - Major manufacturers like GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries hold over 80% market share, with backlogs extending 4-5 years [1][3] - Global gas turbine market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, with new orders expected to exceed 84GW in 2024 against a total production capacity of approximately 60GW [1][3] Key Points on Supply Chain and Demand - The primary bottleneck in the gas turbine supply chain is the turbine blade supply, which constitutes about 25% of the overall value [4] - PCC and Howmet dominate the turbine blade market with a combined share of around 50%, but their production capacity has not significantly increased [4] - The shift in focus from demand to supply issues indicates that turbine blade shortages are limiting overall machine deliveries [4][5] Company-Specific Insights Baker Hughes - Baker Hughes, the fourth-largest gas turbine manufacturer, is experiencing a surge in orders, particularly for small gas turbines, with a 70% year-on-year increase in new orders expected in 2025 [6] - The company aims to increase production capacity by 40% to meet demand, which will benefit suppliers like Yingli [6] Yingli - Yingli is positioned to benefit from Baker Hughes' expansion plans and new orders, with significant growth potential in the gas turbine blade market [7] - The company has secured substantial contracts, with blade orders expected to grow from $20 million in 2024 to $100 million by 2027, indicating a fivefold increase [8] - Yingli's strategic investments in production capacity and technology are expected to yield substantial revenue growth, potentially reaching RMB 5-6 billion by 2028-2029 [11][13] Financial Performance and Market Potential - Yingli's stock price has been rising due to improved long-term cash flow expectations, driven by new orders from major manufacturers [15] - By 2028, Yingli's business could generate profits of approximately RMB 1.3 billion, leading to a market valuation of around RMB 500 billion based on a 30x P/E ratio [16] - The company has significant room for growth, with potential revenues from its two-machine business reaching RMB 10 billion, corresponding to a market cap of RMB 900-1,000 billion if production capacity is expanded [16] Catalysts for Future Growth - Potential catalysts for Yingli's stock price increase include Baker Hughes' expansion plans, new orders from less-focused clients like Ansaldo, and upcoming announcements from GE regarding their production plans [17] - The company is also optimizing its product structure to enhance profit margins by focusing on higher-value products [18][19] Conclusion - The gas turbine industry is poised for significant growth driven by increasing demand from data centers and a supply chain constrained by turbine blade production limitations - Companies like Yingli are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with strong order backlogs and strategic investments in capacity and technology expected to drive future revenue and profit growth.

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Synchronize Trend" investment rating for the gas turbine industry [1]. Core Insights - The global gas turbine market is expected to exceed $30 billion, driven by the growth of data center construction and increasing power demands [2]. - The gas turbine is a type of rotary heat engine widely used in power generation, oil and gas, and marine propulsion [10]. - The market is dominated by international leaders such as GE, Siemens, and Mitsubishi, which hold over 80% of the market share, while domestic companies are gradually improving their production capabilities [2][65]. Summary by Sections 1. Gas Turbine Overview - Gas turbines convert fuel energy into mechanical power through a continuous flow of gas, with core components including compressors, combustion chambers, and turbines [10][35]. - Gas turbines are categorized by power output into heavy, medium, light, and micro turbines, with heavy turbines typically exceeding 50MW [13][16]. 2. Market Growth and Trends - The global gas turbine market size is projected to grow from $23.96 billion in 2024 to $34.75 billion by 2032, with the Asia-Pacific region accounting for 56% of the market [2][52]. - The demand for power from data centers is expected to significantly increase, with AI data center IT energy consumption projected to reach 55.1 TWh in 2024, double that of 2023 [2][63]. 3. Domestic Industry Development - Domestic companies like Harbin Electric, Dongfang Electric, and Shanghai Electric are making strides in heavy gas turbine production, although they still rely on imports for advanced technologies [2][69]. - The domestic market for light gas turbines is largely self-sufficient, with a market size of approximately 56.57 billion yuan in 2022 [58]. 4. Competitive Landscape - Major international players dominate the market, with GE holding a 34% market share, Mitsubishi 27%, and Siemens 24% [65][68]. - Domestic companies are focusing on improving their technology and production capabilities to compete with these international giants [69][73]. 5. Technological Advancements - The report highlights the importance of advanced materials and manufacturing techniques in the production of turbine components, particularly for high-temperature applications [40][44]. - Innovations in turbine design and efficiency, such as combined-cycle systems, are expected to enhance performance and reduce emissions [21][29].

Core Viewpoint - Jerry Holdings (002353) has recently signed multiple contracts for gas turbine generator sales in North America, each exceeding $100 million, indicating a significant breakthrough in the high-end power market for data centers [5][8]. Group 1: Company Developments - Jerry Holdings achieved its third trading limit up in four days following the announcement of a new sales contract [3]. - The company held a conference call for institutional investors to discuss the new contract, which was not disclosed under standard public company regulations [5]. - This marks the second similar order received by Jerry Holdings within a week, showcasing a growing demand for their products [7]. Group 2: Market Context - The gas turbine generators ordered are designed for various applications, including primary or backup power systems for data centers, off-grid computing parks, and emergency power for urban edge data centers [6]. - The global gas turbine market is projected to grow from $30.24 billion in 2025 to approximately $57.44 billion by 2034, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.4% from 2025 to 2034 [9]. - The increasing energy demands of large data centers, particularly in the U.S., are creating investment opportunities in alternative energy sources, as highlighted by investor Steve Hoffman [8]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Major players in the gas turbine market, such as GE, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Power, currently supply about two-thirds of the gas turbines for new natural gas power plants globally, with increasing order backlogs [10]. - The tight capacity among leading U.S. companies may lead to a spillover of orders to Chinese manufacturers, potentially benefiting companies like Jerry Holdings [10].

Group 1: Energy Sector - Jerry Holdings announced a new gas turbine generator sales contract exceeding $100 million with a significant North American client, following a previous $100 million order for data center generators [3] - Siemens Energy and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries forecast that global gas turbine demand will exceed 70 GW by 2025, with growth primarily in the U.S. due to its natural gas advantages [3] - The report anticipates an increase in the prosperity of the gas turbine and its upstream industries, including high-temperature alloys and blades, as they address electricity supply issues driven by AI-induced demand [3] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) has raised its estimate for the global semiconductor market size in 2025 by approximately $45 billion to $772 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 22% [3] - WSTS further predicts that the semiconductor market will reach $975 billion in 2026, achieving over 25% year-on-year growth, approaching the $1 trillion mark [3] - The report expresses optimism regarding the sustained high prosperity of the global semiconductor industry chain, including upstream equipment and materials [3] Group 3: Advanced Manufacturing - Star Materials has increased the price of wet-process separators by 30%, with leading companies like Enjie, Xingyuan, and Jinli operating at full capacity [6] - The average price increase for downstream customers is between 0.1 to 0.2 yuan per square meter, with the industry’s profit in Q3 2025 being below 0.05 yuan per square meter [6] - The report suggests that the recent surge in energy storage demand has positively impacted the separator industry, indicating a potential rise in its prosperity [6] Group 4: Energy Storage - Fluence, a U.S. energy storage company, reported $1.4 billion in new orders for Q4, bringing its total backlog to $5.3 billion, with delivery timelines extending to two years [7] - The CEO highlighted that data center projects are a significant growth area, with demand driven by flexible grid connections, backup power, and power quality [7] - The report notes that the Australian market is a major contributor to Fluence's orders, accounting for nearly half of Q4's new contracts, indicating a strong demand for energy storage solutions [7] Group 5: Consumer Sector - In the beauty sector, Juzhi Biotechnology's core brand, Kefu Mei, underperformed during the Double Eleven shopping festival [9] - The company received approval for a new medical device and plans to launch at least six new products under its core brands in 2026, suggesting potential future growth [9] - In the gaming sector, client games saw a 20% year-on-year increase in Q3, driven by popular titles and a rich product pool for the upcoming year, indicating a positive outlook for cultural output and cross-platform gaming products [9]

Market Performance - The SW Machinery Equipment Index increased by 3.91% during the trading days from November 24 to November 28, 2025, ranking 7th among 31 primary industry categories [1] - Year-to-date performance shows the SW Machinery Equipment Index up by 30.48%, ranking 6th among the same categories, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 15.04% [1] Core Insights - The demand for gas turbines is expected to rise due to AI, with significant growth in power consumption from data centers in the U.S., projected to increase from 8.9 GW to 111.3 GW between 2025 and 2028 [2] - The turbine blades, being core components of gas turbines, face a global supply shortage, with 应流股份 positioned as a leading domestic supplier, already supplying blades for Siemens Energy and developing blades for H-class gas turbines [2] - 应流股份 has strengthened its collaboration with Baker Hughes, securing future orders for multiple gas turbine blades, indicating a robust outlook for export orders [2] Company Developments - 优必选 has secured two significant contracts totaling 4.07 billion yuan for humanoid robot projects, with the Walker series orders reaching 1.3 billion yuan for 2025 [3] - The company is expected to see a pivotal year in 2025 for humanoid robot deliveries and commercialization, coinciding with the IPO of 宇树科技 and Tesla's production ramp-up [3] - The 合肥 BEST fusion project has seen over 2 billion yuan in tenders in November alone, indicating an acceleration in fusion project bidding as construction progresses [3] Industry Trends - General machinery is under continuous pressure, while engineering machinery is accelerating upward [3] - The shipbuilding sector is experiencing a slowdown, oil service equipment is stabilizing at the bottom, railway equipment is steadily increasing, and gas turbines are showing stable growth [3]