Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - The manufacturing PMI for January dropped to 49.3%, a significant decline compared to December, exceeding seasonal expectations[7] - Compared to November, the manufacturing PMI remained stable, indicating no significant strengthening in economic conditions[8] - The production index contributed 150% to the PMI, primarily driven by a recovery in upstream production[8] Group 2: Demand and Price Dynamics - New export orders increased by 0.2 percentage points, while new orders remained flat, suggesting stronger external demand compared to domestic demand[8] - The main raw material purchase price index rose by 3.0 percentage points to 56.1% compared to December, indicating cost-push inflation[8] - The finished goods inventory index increased to 48.6%, reflecting a trend of passive accumulation of inventory due to weak demand[8] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4%, indicating a return to contraction territory[8] - The construction PMI dropped to 48.8%, influenced by seasonal factors as projects halted ahead of the Spring Festival[8] - The service sector PMI remained stable at 49.5%, supported by increased domestic travel demand during the holiday[8] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report highlights concerns over the lack of demand support for production recovery and the potential impact of high raw material prices on industrial profitability[8] - Recent policy measures aim to stimulate demand and investment, with a focus on new consumption sectors[8]

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 沃什当选与 PPI 提前转正，谁将成为下阶段市场主要矛盾 ——宏观与大类资产周报 频率：每周 国内方面，1）"新质生产力"与"反内卷"取得实质性进展，2025 年工业企 业扭转了此前三年持续亏损局面，特别是高技术制造业的利润贡献率大幅提 升。2）开年以来，以有色为代表的大宗大幅涨价，预计 1 月 PPI 环比超预期 增长 0.3%，对应 1 月 PPI 同比回升至-1.2%，预计 PPI 或于 Q2 中后期转正。 海外方面，1）美联储 1 月议息会议并未进一步降息，本次会议中鲍威尔略显 鹰派。2）特朗普提名沃什为美联储下一任主席。3）伊朗局势紧张，贵金属与 有色大幅调整之际，油价依然走高。 资金经历跨月扰动，央行继续通过 OMO 操作释放流动性对冲资金缺口，对资 金面保持温和呵护取向，周度平均走势来看，以 DR001、007 以及 R001、 定期报告 相关报告 1、《PMI 淡季回落———2026 年 1 月 PMI 点评》2026-02-01 2、《如何看 2025 年财政数据 与 2026 年一季度财政节奏？》 2026-01-31 资产方面，1）沃什被任命下一届美联储主 ...

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, down by 1.6 percentage points[2] - The new export orders index also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in export momentum compared to the previous month[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued attention is needed on marginal changes in investment, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and new policies from the upcoming Two Sessions[2]

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In January, the manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down from 50.1% in December[2] - The non-manufacturing PMI also fell to 49.4%, compared to 50.2% in the previous month[2] - The decline in PMI is attributed to the upcoming Spring Festival and a high base effect from the previous month[2] Group 2: Sector Performance - High-tech and midstream equipment manufacturing PMIs remain above the threshold at 52.0% and 50.1% respectively, despite slight declines[2] - Downstream consumer goods manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.3%, indicating a significant decrease of 2.1 percentage points[2] - The construction PMI fell to 48.8%, a decrease of 4.0 percentage points, reflecting seasonal impacts and a high base from the previous month[2] Group 3: Price Indices - The main raw material purchase price index rose to 56.1%, an increase of 3.0 percentage points, while the factory price index reached 50.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points[2] - This marks the first time in 20 months that the factory price index has risen above the critical point, suggesting a potential narrowing of PPI declines[2] Group 4: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The production index decreased to 50.6%, down by 1.1 percentage points, while the new orders index fell to 49.2%, a drop of 1.6 percentage points[2] - New export orders also declined to 47.8%, indicating a slowdown in external demand[2] Group 5: Policy and Economic Outlook - The first batch of "two new" funds has been allocated, and a coordinated fiscal and financial policy to boost domestic demand has been deployed[2] - Continued monitoring of investment trends, consumer performance during the Spring Festival, and policy developments during the Two Sessions is advised[2]

近日，深圳市南山区官宣2025年地区生产总值超万亿元，成为全国首个达到万亿级规模的区县级行政区。 这是什么概念？目前，全国GDP超万亿的城市也只有30个左右，南山区经济总量已经超过全国绝大多数地级市。 过去10年间，南山区经济总量从4411亿元跃升至超万亿元，近5年更是连跨4个千亿级台阶，以不足深圳1/10的土地，创造了超过1/4的GDP。 2025年，南山区每万人发明专利拥有量超860件，约为全国水平的22.9倍；研发投入强度高达7.87%，接近全国水平3倍。 战略性新兴产业占GDP比重达60%，高技术制造业和先进制造业占规上工业增加值比重分别达60.7%和58.6%，现代服务业占第三产业比重接近90%。 深圳南山之后，谁能成为下一个"万亿城区"？ 这个"万亿城区"的含金量，可以看一组更直观的数据—— 2025年地均GDP达54亿元/平方公里，人均GDP超54万元、约为经济第一大省广东(11万元)的5倍； 全区拥有63.7万家市场主体、218家上市公司，相当于每平方公里就有超过1家上市公司，密度全国第一； 面积仅20平方公里的"最牛街道"粤海街道，汇聚了上百家上市公司和华为、腾讯、大疆、百度等科技大厂…… ...

这是什么概念？目前，全国GDP 超万亿的城市也只有30个左右，南山区经济总量已经超过全国绝大多数地级市。 过去10年间，南山区经济总量从4411亿元跃升至超万亿元，近5年更是连跨4个千亿级台阶，以不足深圳1/10的土地，创造了超过1/4的GDP。 每经记者｜程晓玲 每经编辑｜刘艳美 近日，深圳市南山区官宣2025年地区生产总值超万亿元，成为全国首个达到万亿级规模的区县级行政区。 战略性新兴产业占GDP比重达60%，高技术制造业和先进制造业占规上工业增加值比重分别达60.7%和58.6%，现代服务业占第三产业比重接近90%。 深圳南山之后，谁能成为下一个"万亿城区"？ 这个"万亿城区"的含金量，可以看一组更直观的数据—— 2025年地均GDP达54亿元/平方公里，人均GDP超54万元、约为经济第一大省广东（11万元）的5倍； 全区拥有63.7万家市场主体、218家上市公司，相当于每平方公里就有超过1家上市公司，密度全国第一； 面积仅20平方公里的"最牛街道"粤海街道，汇聚了上百家上市公司和华为、腾讯、大疆、百度等科技大厂…… 科技巨头扎堆、经济密度之高，堪称中国城区经济发展的"天花板"。 南山的崛起之路，简单总 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2026 年 02 月 01 日 1 月 PMI：生产蓄力开门红 —2026 年 1 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 1 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.3%，比上月下降 0.8 个百分点，重返 收缩区间。从结构上看，制造业企业生产指数有所放缓但仍处于扩张区间， 而市场有效需求仍显不足，生产存在蓄力开门红特征。从行业角度来看，消 费品制造业生产指数放缓拖累较多，但装备制造业、高技术制造业为代表的 新动能仍处于扩张区间。 1 月份，综合 PMI 产出指数为 49.8%，非制造业商务活动指数亦有所回落。 综合来看，随着春节临近，部分制造业行业进入传统淡季，建筑业景气下降， 1 月经济活动相较上月总体放缓。 ❑ 1 月生产放缓但仍处于扩张区间，蓄力开门红 1 月生产指数 50.6%，比上月回落 1.1 个百分点，仍处于扩张区间，表明制造业生 产活动保持扩张，此外，生产相关的原材料库存量回落、用工景气平稳。1 月生产 指数下降的首要原因是消费品制造业生产指数较上月下降超过 4 个百分点至 50% 以下，拖累整体生产指数运行，显示消费品制造业 ...

本文来自格隆汇专栏：梁中华宏观研究 作者： 侯欢、梁中华 投资要点 本月制造业PMI淡季回落，需求待提振，扩产较谨慎。受大宗商品涨价影响，价格指数明显回升。此外，服务业景气平稳，建筑业活 跃度还需政策呵护。 2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点。建筑业商务活动指数为48.8%，比上月下降4.0个百分点；服务业商务活 动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.2个百分点。 制造业PMI：淡季回落。为了缓解春节假期因素的扰动，国泰海通证券把本月PMI与近年春节前一个月对比。结果发现，本月PMI不及 近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。一方面，企业规模分化加剧，大型企业PMI仍位于扩张区间, 中、小型企业PMI在收缩区间低位 运行。另一方面，经济结构转型加快。高技术制造业PMI连续两个月位于较高水平，装备制造业保持在扩张区间。相比之下，消费品 行业和高耗能行业处于收缩区间，景气水平有所回落。 需求有待提振，扩产较为谨慎。2026年1月份，生产指数为50.6%，虽然高于临界点，但是比上月下降1.1个百分点，除了淡季因素的影 响，还与需求的回落有关。同期，新订单、新出口订单指数分别为49.2%、4 ...

国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会1月31日发布数据显示，2026年1月份，制造业采购 经理指数(PMI)、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.3%、49.4%和49.8%，比上月下降 0.8个、0.8个和0.9个百分点，经济景气水平有所回落。 服务业运行稳定 1月份，受建筑业等行业景气度下降等因素影响，非制造业商务活动指数为49.4%，比上月下降0.8个百 分点，非制造业总体景气水平有所回落。 "但从企业感受来看，市场需求不足的问题趋于缓解。"中国物流信息中心专家文韬表示，1月份反映市 场需求不足的制造业企业比重为54.9%，较上月下降9.4个百分点，意味着当前的市场需求放缓属于正常 变化，市场需求趋稳运行态势没有改变。 新动能延续扩张态势，产业结构持续优化。1月份，高技术制造业PMI为52.0%，连续两个月位于52.0% 及以上较高水平，相关行业发展态势持续向好；装备制造业PMI为50.1%，保持在扩张区间；消费品行 业和高耗能行业PMI分别为48.3%和47.9%，景气水平有所回落。 从价格看，受近期部分大宗商品价格上涨等因素影响，主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为 ...

Economic Indicators - The Manufacturing PMI for January 2026 is at 49.3%, falling below the expansion threshold of 50.1%[7] - The Production and New Orders PMI are recorded at 50.6% and 49.2% respectively, both showing significant declines from previous levels[7] Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 52%, slightly down from 52.5%, but remains near the second-highest level since the implementation of equal tariff policies in April 2025[7] - The construction sector's activity has slowed significantly, with the PMI dropping below 40% due to adverse weather and the upcoming holiday[7] Demand Dynamics - New Orders PMI has seen a year-on-year decline, marking the second-lowest drop for this period, indicating insufficient domestic demand[7] - New Export Orders PMI decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 47.8%, influenced by prior export surges and trade policy adjustments from key partners[7] Price Trends - Major raw material purchase price index and factory price index have risen to 56.1% and 50.6% respectively, indicating a return to expansion after 20 months[7] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector are driving overall price increases, while sectors with weak internal demand, like wood processing, show price contraction[7] Future Outlook - The report suggests that geopolitical changes and investment demand in technology will continue to drive global capital expenditure and commodity prices, particularly in non-energy commodities[7] - The ongoing contradiction of strong supply versus weak demand in the domestic market remains a critical issue, with the ability of upstream prices to transmit to downstream still uncertain[7]