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国投期货有色金属
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-05-15 11:07
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The long - term upward trend of copper remains intact, with high - level volatility. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024. Trade negotiations and global trade order are key concerns [2][8]. - Aluminum prices are relatively high, with the supply growth rate expected to decline in 2025. The price may be high in the first half and low in the second half, and macro factors may amplify price fluctuations [9][15]. - Zinc consumption has a weak outlook, and the price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [17][36]. - Tin fundamentals are strong, and prices are expected to remain high - level volatile. The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [37][48]. - For nickel, supply is in surplus, and costs are rising. The price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [53][69]. - Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. - Gold prices may continue to hit new highs, with international prices predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [91][103]. - Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [103][110]. - The industrial silicon futures market is developing steadily, and the industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue in 2025 [111][117]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Market - **Global Supply and Demand**: In 2024, the growth of global copper concentrate production was lower than that of demand. In 2025, many mining companies lowered production targets. The shortage of copper concentrate supply will take time to ease, and overseas medium - and long - term refined copper demand is expected to grow [2]. - **China's Supply and Demand**: Domestic scrap copper direct utilization is decreasing, and supply is expected to be tight in 2025. Refined copper production growth is constrained by raw material supply, and terminal demand is driven by power grids, home appliances, and automobiles, while the real estate sector is a drag [3][6]. - **Macro - market Analysis**: Capital inflows into copper due to its industrial and financial attributes. Trump's potential 25% tariff on copper would increase short - term price volatility and change the global supply chain [7]. - **Price Forecast**: The long - term upward trend of copper remains, but short - term policy uncertainty has a great impact. The 2025 annual average price is expected to be around $9400, higher than in 2024 [8]. Aluminum Market - **Supply Analysis**: Future new electrolytic aluminum projects are mainly in Asia. China's production growth rate will slow down in 2025, and global production growth may decline. China's imports may also decrease [10][11]. - **Demand Analysis**: Aluminum consumption growth may slow down in 2025, with exports expected to decline and domestic demand growth difficult to improve [12]. - **Price Forecast**: As long as China's production ceiling is not lifted, there is price support, but cost reduction and weak demand limit the upside. Prices may be high in the first half and low in the second half [15]. Zinc Market - **Supply Analysis**: Zinc concentrate production has been declining, but exploration investment is slowly recovering. Import volume has increased, and processing fees have rebounded [18][23]. - **Demand Analysis**: Overseas zinc consumption in various fields is still weak, while domestic consumption shows resilience, but there are potential impacts from tariffs on exports [30][31]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to range between RMB 21,000 - 25,500 per ton for SHFE zinc and $2500 - 3300 per ton for LME zinc [36]. Tin Market - **2024 Market Analysis**: In 2024, tin prices rose, inventories decreased, production increased, and consumption improved [37][38]. - **2025 Trend Outlook**: Global tin ore supply may decline in 2025, and there will be a shortage of over 20,000 tons. The price is expected to remain high - level volatile [41][44]. - **Price Forecast**: The estimated price range is RMB 236,000 - 305,000 per ton for SHFE tin and $29,000 - 38,000 per ton for LME tin [48]. Nickel Market - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is mainly from Indonesia. Supply is in surplus, and demand lacks highlights. China's stainless steel production supports nickel consumption [53][56]. - **Cost and Price**: The cost of the nickel industry is rising, and the price of SHFE nickel is expected to have difficulty breaking through the RMB 120,000 - 130,000 per ton range [60][69]. Lithium Market - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, lithium supply is increasing, and demand is also high. There is a surplus in the market, but the surplus is narrowing [75][84]. - **Price Forecast**: Lithium prices are expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, with a core price range of RMB 60,000 - 90,000 per ton [90]. Gold Market - **Market Review**: From 2018 - 2025, various factors such as trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts have stimulated the rise of gold prices [91]. - **Price Forecast**: International gold prices are predicted to reach $4000 - 4100 per ounce, and domestic prices to reach RMB 920 - 950 per gram [103]. Silver Market - **Fundamentals**: In 2024, global silver supply increased, and demand decreased. In 2025, the supply shortage is expected to further narrow [103]. - **Price Forecast**: Silver prices are likely to fluctuate at a high level, driven by multiple attributes [110]. Silicon Market - **Futures Market**: The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are developing steadily, with increasing trading volume and participation [111][112]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In 2025, the silicon industry is facing supply - demand imbalance, with supply exceeding demand expected to continue [114][117].
中金黄金:业绩稳健增长 彰显央企上市公司高质量发展韧性
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-04-29 11:22
2025年4月30日,中金黄金(600489)股份有限公司(简称:中金黄金)正式发布2024年年度报告及2025 年第一季度报告。2024年全年及2025年一季度,公司紧抓黄金行业战略机遇期,狠抓生产经营,持续深 化改革,主要财务指标实现稳健增长。 2024年,中金黄金面对错综复杂的外部形势和艰巨繁重改革发展任务,始终坚持稳中求进工作总基调, 围绕以核心竞争力提升促高质量发展这一主题,圆满完成年度主要生产任务,经营指标持续增长、资产 质量持续提升、核心竞争力持续巩固、市场形象和市值水平持续向好,实现价值创造力、改革深化效 能、科技创新引领力、企业治理水平、风险防控根基和党建引领作用六个方面持续提升,为公司高质量 发展新征程奠定了坚实基础。 锚定高质量发展目标创新驱动绿色转型 中金黄金始终以科技创新为引擎,推动绿色矿山建设和智能化升级。2024年,公司研发费用7.30亿元, 同比增加0.47亿元,获得省部级或行业协会奖16项,新申请专利157项,其中新申请发明专利38项,获 得授权专利81项,其中授权发明专利22项。同时,公司积极响应"双碳"目标,连续10年披露社会责任报 告(ESG报告),ESG治理水平持续提 ...
西部黄金(601069) - 西部黄金股份有限公司2025年第一季度经营数据公告
2025-04-28 09:07
证券代码:601069 证券简称:西部黄金 公告编号: 2025-022 西部黄金股份有限公司 2025 年第一季度经营数据公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏,并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 根据上海证券交易所《上海证券交易所上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行 业信息披露》要求,现将西部黄金股份有限公司(以下简称"公司")2025 年 第一季度(1-3 月)主要有色金属品种产销量及盈利情况披露如下(财务数据未 经审计): 一、2025 年第一季度(1-3 月)主营业务分行业、分产品、分地区、分销售模式情况 单位:元 币种:人民币 | | | | 主营业务分行业情况 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分行业 | 营业收入 | 营业成本 | 毛利率(%) | 营业收入比上年增 | 营业成本比上 | 毛利率比上年增减 | | | | | | 减(%) | 年增减(%) | (%) | | 黄金行业 | 1,508,003,259.23 | 1,422,538,270.46 ...
沃高中国与恩派基金会联合打造‘黄金书屋’ 点亮乡村儿童阅读梦
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-04-23 08:56
在知识经济蓬勃发展的2025年,阅读素养已成为数字化时代公民的核心竞争力。然而,由于地域、经济 和社会条件的差异,不同地区的儿童在阅读资源的获取上仍然存在显著的不平等。这种不平等不仅影响 了儿童的个人发展,也对社会的整体进步构成了阻碍。 4月23日,值此第30个世界读书日之际,沃高(中国)商业有限公司(简称:沃高中国)携手上海浦东 新区恩派公益基金(简称:"恩派基金会")共同成立的"黄金书屋专项基金"再度起航,继续聚焦乡村振 兴战略中的教育均衡发展问题。通过满天星平台,发起2025年度"黄金书屋 快乐阅读"公益活动,汇聚 黄金行业和社会力量,为乡村儿童捐赠课外图书。该项目倡导合理利用城市居民的闲置儿童读物,为乡 村儿童提供更多的阅读选择,解决城市居民图书处理问题的同时,也为乡村儿童带来了宝贵的知识资 源。 本次项目将重点筹集适合5-12岁儿童阅读的课外图书,包括图画绘本、童话寓言、益智读物、科普百科 等。为了让乡村孩子们能够享受到更好的阅读体验,项目组特别推荐捐赠新书或八成新以上的图书。具 体的募集要求和参与方式,公众可通过满天星公益平台"黄金书屋快乐阅读"公益项目页面进行详细了 解。 沃高中国员工以公益骑行 ...
热搜!金价巨震,现在还在跌!还有网友昨日刚上车!特朗普认怂,对华关税会大幅下降,还说不会解雇鲍威尔,都是媒体炒作!
雪球· 2025-04-23 06:14
长按即可参与 A股三大指数早盘集体上涨,截至午盘,沪指涨0.04%,深成指涨0.7%,创业板指涨1.02%。全市场半日成交额7892亿元,较上日放量766亿 元。 特朗普态度再变,引发金价下跌, 一起来看一下最新的市场消息。 01 特朗普再次转变温和态度 美国美元快速拉升 美股 大幅收涨,道指涨2.66%,纳指涨2.71%, 标普500指数 涨2.51%。 大型科技股普涨,特斯拉涨超4%,亚马逊、苹果、Meta涨逾3%,谷歌、微软涨超2%。 美元指数止跌,也迎来了久违的上涨,重返99点。 消息面上是,美国总统特朗普当地时间周二(4月22日)在公开场合发表了讲话,他承认 美国目前对中国出口 商品的关税过高,预计税率将大幅 降低。这标志着特朗普在其 标志性的关税政策上态度已出现 缓和。周二,美国财政部长贝森特也在摩根大通的一场活动中表示,中美双方的关税 战将很快降温。 这位总统态度转变的太快了,让我们来看看这位"善变的总统先生"4月份的态度: 4月2日,特朗普宣布加征关税,对我国加征了34%。 4月9日,特朗普宣布对未反制的国家实施"90天关税缓冲期"。 4月10日,特朗普宣布对我国进一步加征关税至125%。 4 ...