Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Cobalt Industry - Global cobalt demand is expected to grow, reaching 240,000 to 250,000 tons by 2025, with the U.S. storage plan having a noticeable impact on market demand, particularly in the metal cobalt sector [1][2][3] - The supply-demand dynamics in the cobalt industry are shifting due to the export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), leading to reduced supply, while the U.S. storage plan and demand for ternary materials from large cylindrical batteries are driving demand [1][3] Core Insights and Arguments - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise significantly starting in September, with projections indicating an increase from the current price of 260,000 CNY/ton to over 350,000 CNY/ton, representing a rise of more than one-third [1][8] - The strategic nature of cobalt is increasing, similar to the transition seen in the rare earth and tungsten markets, suggesting a favorable outlook for the cobalt sector [1][6] - The recent dovish comments from the Federal Reserve have boosted the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting investment opportunities in cobalt and tungsten [1][7] Company-Specific Insights - Huayou Cobalt is highlighted as a key investment target, with expected profits of around 6 billion CNY in 2025 and a market capitalization increase from 70 billion CNY to 80 billion CNY, resulting in a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13 times [1][9] - Other companies such as Tengyuan and Hanrui are also noted for their potential, although their benefits may diminish in the third quarter due to the DRC's export ban [1][10] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector remains low, with companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum maintaining low price-to-earnings ratios, making cobalt and other small commodities particularly attractive for investment [1][11] - The copper market is expected to recover in demand during the third quarter, with no significant increase in global copper supply, indicating a favorable window for copper price increases [1][14][15] Additional Important Insights - The cobalt market is sensitive to strategic metal attributes, and the U.S. procurement plan for cobalt, which includes 7,500 tons over five years, will have a significant impact on the metal cobalt market despite its small overall industry share [2][10] - The supply situation is expected to tighten in September due to the DRC's export ban, leading to a relative vacuum in supply and subsequent price increases [1][5][6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the Federal Reserve is preparing to lower interest rates in response to economic risks, particularly concerning the labor market [2][3] - The gold ETF fund (159937) has seen a year-to-date increase of 25.17%, reflecting strong investor interest amid changing monetary policy expectations [1] - Current spot gold prices are around $3364.31 per ounce, with fluctuations influenced by Federal Reserve announcements and market sentiment [1][3] Group 2 - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference highlighted the need for potential adjustments in policy due to changing economic risks and labor market conditions [2] - The U.S. GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.5% to 1.2% by the first half of 2025, indicating structural challenges in the economy [2] - The labor market appears balanced, but there are signs of cooling demand and supply, increasing the risk of job losses [2] - Tariffs are expected to continue impacting prices, but the Fed views this as a one-time shock rather than a persistent inflation issue [2] - The Fed's current policy rate is closer to neutral, with inflation risks skewed upward and employment risks downward, necessitating a careful approach [2] - The new policy framework has removed previous commitments regarding inflation targets and employment levels, indicating a more data-driven approach [2] Group 3 - Short-term market dynamics are driven by Powell's dovish stance and weakening economic data, which have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September [3] - The uncertainty in the Middle East may further boost safe-haven demand for gold, supporting its price [3] - In the medium term, persistent inflation and resilient employment data could lead to unexpected rate cuts by the Fed, increasing gold volatility [3] - Central banks are continuing to purchase gold amid a global trend of de-dollarization, providing long-term support for gold prices [3] - The gold ETF fund and its associated funds offer low-cost, diversified investment options in gold, aligning closely with domestic gold prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - A seemingly technical tariff adjustment by the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has triggered significant turmoil in the global gold market, highlighting the fragility of the gold supply chain and the impact of policy uncertainty on market confidence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Following the tariff announcement, the premium of New York gold futures over London spot prices surged to $125 per ounce, reflecting market panic over potential supply chain disruptions [7]. - New York gold prices reached a historic high of $3534.10 per ounce, while London prices remained stable around $3396.04, indicating a significant price disparity [7]. - Historical data shows that when the COMEX futures premium exceeds 2%, it has previously led to strong price recoveries in the spot market within 1-3 weeks, as seen in April 2020 [7]. Group 2: Policy Implications - The White House intervened shortly after the market reaction, labeling the CBP's tariff decision as "misinformation," which indicates internal policy confusion and has led to a rapid decline in gold prices [9][10]. - The inconsistency between government agencies has heightened market uncertainty, raising questions about the reliability of U.S. policy [12][13]. Group 3: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Approximately 90% of industrial gold is refined in Switzerland, making it a critical hub in the global gold supply chain, which is now seen as overly concentrated and vulnerable to geopolitical risks [4][12]. - The recent events may prompt a reevaluation of the reliance on a single refining center, potentially leading to a more diversified supply network in the future [15]. Group 4: Investment Sentiment - The turmoil has led to a shift in sentiment among investment institutions, with even traditionally bearish firms like Citigroup adjusting their gold price targets upward to $3500 per ounce [12]. - The current climate of policy uncertainty may enhance gold's status as a safe-haven asset, as investors seek stability amid fluctuating market conditions [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - U.S. gold futures reached a record high due to uncertainty surrounding potential country-specific import tariffs on commonly traded gold bars, impacting global supply chains and the U.S. gold futures market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reaction - December U.S. gold futures rose to $3,494.10 per ounce, hitting a record of $3,534.10 earlier in the session, following reports of potential tariffs [2]. - Spot prices eased to $3,394 per ounce but increased by 0.9% for the week, with the spread between U.S. gold futures and spot prices widening to $100 [7]. Group 2: Implications of Tariffs - The potential imposition of tariffs could threaten New York's dominance in the gold futures market, as prices have risen sharply compared to other trading centers [5]. - Swiss goods, including gold, are subject to U.S. import tariffs of 39%, with ongoing negotiations aimed at reducing these levies [8]. Group 3: Industry Concerns - The Swiss Precious Metals Association expressed concerns regarding the impact of tariffs on the gold industry and is actively engaging with stakeholders on the matter [9].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a 3% year-on-year increase in global gold demand in Q2 2025, driven primarily by strong investment demand, with total demand reaching 1249 tons [1] - Global gold ETF net inflows amounted to 170 tons in Q2, with Asia contributing 70 tons and North America 73 tons, leading to a record high of 397 tons for the first half of the year since 2020 [1] - Investment demand for gold bars and coins rose by 11% year-on-year to 307 tons, with significant increases in China (44% to 115 tons) and Europe (156% to 28 tons), while the US saw a decline of 53% to 9 tons [1] Group 2 - Consumer demand for gold jewelry decreased by 14% year-on-year, nearing 2020 lows, although the consumption value increased [1] - Central bank gold purchases continued but at a slower pace, with an increase of 166 tons in Q2, and 95% of surveyed central banks expect their gold reserves to increase in the next 12 months [1] - On the supply side, gold mine production saw a slight increase, with total gold supply in Q2 reaching 1249 tons, a 3% year-on-year growth, and recycled gold supply up by 4% [1] Group 3 - The price of gold in USD terms increased by 26% in the first half of the year, with expectations of narrow fluctuations in the second half due to an uncertain macro environment [1] - The strong start for gold may provide support for prices, while worsening geopolitical situations could drive prices higher [1]

Report Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern under multiple factors. Gold maintained a volatile trend, while silver rose sharply and then fell back, but still had significant monthly gains. Looking ahead, precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term, with the core drivers being policy expectation differentials and trade risk premiums [3][6]. - The Fed's July FOMC meeting is likely to keep interest rates unchanged. However, if it signals a rate cut in September, it may trigger a weaker US dollar. The implementation of global tariffs on August 1 and the EU's €93 billion counter - measure plan (effective August 7) may cause supply - chain shocks, and the safe - haven demand still has the potential to surge [3][73]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market Review - In July 2025, affected by factors such as escalating trade frictions, deepening policy games, and frequent geopolitical risks, the precious metals market showed a divergent pattern. Gold was volatile, and silver rose first and then fell. By July 25, New York gold rose 0.71% monthly, Shanghai gold rose 0.82%, New York silver rose 5.49% monthly, and Shanghai silver rose 4.34% [3][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis (1) Uncertainty of Tariff Implementation and Safe - Haven Logic for Precious Metals - The US postponed the deadline for "reciprocal tariffs" to August 1. Although the direct impact of the new round of tariffs is weaker than before, most trade agreements are still pending, which increases the uncertainty of the global trade system. The precious metals market shows a complex reaction, with local trade risk mitigation weakening gold's safe - haven appeal, while unresolved trade frictions still support safe - haven sentiment [16][18]. (2) Rate - Cut Expectations and Political Risk Premiums as New Drivers for Precious Metals - The Fed is facing internal divisions over the rate - cut path and external challenges to its policy independence from the Trump administration. The market's pricing logic for precious metals is shifting. Rate - cut expectations may limit the upside of precious metals, while political intervention has increased policy uncertainty and risk premiums, providing support for precious metals [19][20]. (3) Inflation: US CPI Rebounded in June - The US CPI data in June showed an overall moderate increase with the impact of tariffs emerging. As enterprises deplete their inventories, the impact of tariffs on inflation may intensify in the coming months. The market's expectation of the Fed's policy shift has weakened significantly, with the probability of the first rate cut postponed to September at 59.9% [21][25]. (4) US June Non - Farm Payrolls Exceeded Expectations - The better - than - expected non - farm payrolls data in June reduced the probability of a rate cut in July and also shook the expectation of a rate cut in September. In the short term, it suppressed precious metals prices, but in the long term, the support factors for precious metals remained, and prices may maintain a volatile and slightly upward pattern [26][30]. (5) US Treasury Real Yields Volatile, Dollar Index Declined - In July 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury real yields fluctuated violently, causing increased volatility in precious metals prices. The Trump administration's tariff policies and the Fed's independence crisis weakened the US dollar's credit foundation, and the falling dollar index provided support for precious metals [40][42]. 3. Supply - Demand Analysis of Precious Metals (1) Gold Market in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the global gold market saw both supply and demand increase, with prices soaring. Investment demand was the core driver, with global gold ETFs rebounding strongly. The market showed structural changes, with gold jewelry demand falling to its lowest level after the pandemic, while the investment focus shifted from the over - the - counter market to gold ETFs [44][47]. (2) Silver Market - In 2025, the silver market remained in a tight supply - demand balance. The growth of photovoltaic and electronic industrial demand was the core driver. The demand for silver in the photovoltaic industry is expected to increase further, but there are policy and technological uncertainties. Silver is expected to experience a supply shortage again in 2024, and the shortage may widen [51][52]. 4. Position, Inventory, and Seasonal Analysis (1) ETF Positions - In June 2025, the demand for global gold ETFs turned positive, driving strong performance in the first half of the year. North America, Europe, Asia, and other regions all saw inflows. By the end of June, the total AUM of global gold ETFs increased by 41% to $383 billion, and the total holdings increased by 397 tons to 3616 tons [56][59]. (2) CFTC Positions - As of the week ending July 15, 2025, the non - commercial net long positions in gold futures on the CFTC increased, indicating a rebound in the market's bullish sentiment towards gold. The non - commercial net long positions in silver futures decreased, showing a decline in the market's bullish sentiment towards silver [62]. (3) Inventory Analysis - As of July 23, 2025, COMEX gold inventory increased by about 1.2% compared to the end of last month, COMEX silver inventory decreased by about 0.3%, SHFE gold inventory increased by about 58.23%, and SHFE silver inventory decreased by about 8.6% [67]. 5. Outlook and Operational Suggestions - Precious metals may continue to trade in a high - level volatile pattern in the short term. The COMEX gold may fluctuate between $3200 - $3450 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai gold between 760 - 820 yuan per gram. The COMEX silver may trade between $36.5 - $40 per ounce, corresponding to Shanghai silver between 8800 - 9600 yuan per kilogram. In August, attention should be paid to factors such as the Fed's policy minutes, US inflation data, the impact of EU - US trade confrontation, and geopolitical black swan events, and positions should be adjusted flexibly based on key levels [3][73].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that maintaining market stability has become the primary task of regulatory work, indicating that market stability is prioritized over financing, which is a shift from previous statements [1] - The focus on establishing a normalized market stabilization mechanism suggests that market stability efforts will not only occur during significant downturns but will involve proactive monitoring and intervention to prevent major fluctuations, laying the groundwork for a slow bull market [1] - The upcoming months of July, August, and September are seen as critical for maintaining market stability, with the expectation that the market will remain safe for investment during this period [1] Group 2 - The central bank's new regulation requires reporting cash purchases of gold exceeding 100,000 yuan, aimed at preventing money laundering, indicating a response to previous trends [3] - There is speculation about whether this regulation signals a limitation on personal gold purchases, drawing parallels to past housing market restrictions, although the likelihood of gold experiencing similar market dynamics is considered low [3] - The distinction between gold and real estate is highlighted, noting that gold possesses both value retention and hedging properties, while real estate's value retention is comparatively weaker, suggesting that even with current restrictions, gold is unlikely to mirror the housing market's trajectory [3]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - Platinum prices surged to 312 CNY per gram, driven by industrial demand and supply constraints, particularly due to strikes in South African platinum mines [4][6] - The industrial demand for platinum accounts for 75% of its usage, significantly higher than gold's 10% [3][4] - The price of platinum is influenced by a threefold supply-demand mismatch: a 20% reduction in global production capacity, a 35% increase in demand from hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, and a weakening of palladium substitution effects [4] Group 2: Investment Characteristics - Gold is perceived as a stable asset with a historical "safe-haven" status, while platinum is viewed as a more volatile investment tied to industrial applications [7] - The average premium for ancient gold ingots at auction reached 47%, compared to only 12% for platinum products [3] - A platinum ETF saw a 42% increase in the first quarter of 2025, outperforming gold ETFs, which only rose by 15% [7] Group 3: Recycling and Recovery - Platinum catalyst recovery processes have advanced, with new methods increasing recovery rates from 88% to 99.7%, enhancing the economic value of recycled platinum [6] - In contrast, gold recovery remains a more traditional process, with significant daily volumes of gold waste being recycled compared to platinum [6][7] - The economic value of recycled platinum from waste materials can be substantial, with estimates suggesting a value increase of 450,000 CNY per ton of waste catalyst [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper and aluminum sectors, highlighting the ongoing value reassessment driven by interest rate cut expectations and inflows from insurance capital [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Interest Rate Impact**: Enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a resonance of value and cyclical capital inflows in the copper and aluminum sectors, improving marginal pricing power [3][4]. - **Supply Constraints**: The copper supply side remains tight, with a projected increase of only 370,000 tons in 2025, significantly lower than previous forecasts. This includes reductions from major mines, exacerbated by U.S. investigations affecting global inventory movements [6][7]. - **Valuation Levels**: The copper sector is currently valued below historical averages, with companies like Zijin Mining showing recovery from lows but still reflecting market concerns about demand and macroeconomic expectations [9][10]. - **Aluminum Sector Attributes**: The aluminum sector is characterized by high dividends and low valuations, with leading companies like Hongqiao seeing gradual increases in valuation centers. The sector's overall PB and PE ratios are low, with high dividend yields indicating strong long-term growth potential [13][14]. Additional Important Insights - **Investment Opportunities**: Recommended companies for investment include Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on undervalued stocks in the Hong Kong market. Other notable mentions include China Nonferrous Mining, Minmetals Resources, and China Gold International, which are expected to see significant volume increases [12][17]. - **Market Trends**: The copper and aluminum markets are in a stable rebound phase, with strong demand resilience despite short-term fluctuations in solar photovoltaic orders. Long-term aluminum demand growth is projected to outpace that of copper and steel [15][16]. - **Insurance Capital Inflows**: Insurance capital is projected to flow into the copper and aluminum sectors, with estimates of annual inflows around 700 to 800 billion, indicating strong confidence in price stability [5][8]. Conclusion - The copper and aluminum sectors present significant investment opportunities due to favorable macroeconomic conditions, supply constraints, and attractive valuations. Investors are encouraged to focus on long-term growth potential while being mindful of short-term market fluctuations.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive pause since December 2024, aligning with market expectations [2] - The Fed's statement highlighted robust economic activity and low unemployment, but noted that inflation remains slightly elevated, indicating caution regarding external risks and tariff policy impacts [2] - The latest dot plot revealed significant internal divergence on the interest rate path for 2025, with 7 officials believing no rate cuts are necessary, while 10 support two rate cuts, reflecting a more conservative stance compared to March [3] Group 2 - The Fed revised its economic outlook, lowering the 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4% and raising core PCE inflation expectations from 2.8% to 3.1%, alongside an increase in the unemployment rate forecast from 4.4% to 4.5% [6] - The impact of tariffs on inflation expectations is reshaping the economic landscape, with the Fed anticipating core PCE inflation to rise to 3.1% in 2025, prompting a delay in rate cuts to prevent inflation expectations from becoming unanchored [7] - Fed Chair Powell emphasized a "data-dependent" approach, indicating that decisions will be based on labor market conditions, inflation data, and tariff effects, allowing for flexibility in policy responses [8] Group 3 - Geopolitical risks, such as conflicts in the Middle East and escalating global trade tensions, complicate the Fed's policy path, with current market focus on the Fed's policy trajectory and economic data rather than short-term safe-haven demand for gold [9] - Following the Fed's hawkish stance, the dollar index rose to 98.85, putting downward pressure on gold prices, which fell below the previous trading range, with a short-term bearish trend established [10] - Experts suggest that while gold may face short-term pressure due to the Fed's anti-inflation stance, it remains a core asset in a long-term stagflation environment, with potential for recovery if inflation data falls below 2.8% [12]