丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 应用正当时：字节发布 Seedance2.0，AI 视 频生成迈上新台阶 [Table_Summary] 近日字节在飞书里发布最新视频模型 Seedance 2.0 的产品介绍文档，目前已经在即梦平台上 线，会员用户（至少 69 元）可以直接使用，支持文本/图片生视频，也支持视频和音频作为参 考素材输入。2026 年大模型进入"模型×场景"深度融合阶段，互联网平台在模型、算力与数 据侧具备系统性优势，2C 入口争夺有望全面展开；在 B 端，规则清晰、高价值的已具备规模 化落地条件，也是海外头部厂商重点突破方向。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 宗建树 郭敬超 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490525120002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Title AI 应用正当时：字节发布 2] Seedance2.0，AI 视 频生成迈上新台阶 ...

2月9日，金融界财经早餐，宏观政策、资本市场、行业板块、公司个股资讯一览： 一、今日财经资讯 1、李强主持召开国务院常务会议，研究促进有效投资政策措施。会议指出，促进有效投资对于稳定经 济增长、增强发展后劲具有重要作用。要创新完善政策措施，加力提效用好中央预算内投资、超长期特 别国债、地方政府专项债券等资金和新型政策性金融工具。要结合制定实施"十五五"规划，着眼于长远 发展需要和构筑未来竞争优势，在基础设施、城市更新、公共服务、新兴产业和未来产业等重点领域， 深入谋划推动一批重大项目、重大工程。要更好发挥央国企扩投资作用，加大力度支持民间投资发展， 形成促进有效投资的合力。 2、中国人民银行等八部门发布关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知。通知指出，虚拟货 币不具有与法定货币等同的法律地位。比特币、以太币、泰达币等虚拟货币具有非货币当局发行等主要 特点，不具有法偿性，不应且不能作为货币在市场上流通使用。 3、国家外汇管理局2月7日发布的最新统计数据显示，2026年1月末，中国官方黄金储备为7419万盎司， 较2025年12月末增加4万盎司。目前，中国央行已连续15个月增持黄金。截至2026年1月末，我 ...

Market Overview - Global major asset performance showed mixed results, with the Mexican MXX index leading with a gain of 4.75%, while the Hang Seng Tech index fell by 6.51% [2] - A-shares experienced a decline, with the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.11% and the STAR 50 Index down 5.76% [4] - The U.S. labor market data indicated weakness, with rising layoffs and unemployment claims, increasing recession expectations [3] Industry Performance - The food and beverage sector led with a weekly gain of 4.3%, followed by beauty care at 3.7% and electric equipment at 2.2% [5] - The communication sector faced a significant decline of 6.9%, while the non-ferrous metals sector dropped by 8.5% [5] - Overall, 31 major industries showed similar performance, with notable gains in food and beverage, beauty care, and electric equipment [5] Policy and Economic Insights - Recent policies, including the Central Document No. 1 and new regulations for the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development, are expected to shift market focus towards policy beneficiaries and undervalued defensive stocks [6] - The Chinese economy is transitioning from focusing on output growth to ensuring that growth translates into stable income and welfare for residents, with an increasing emphasis on Gross National Income (GNI) [7] - The GNI is currently lower than GDP due to structural issues in the initial income account, primarily driven by strong outflows from foreign enterprises [8] Corporate and Investment Trends - Chinese companies are increasingly improving the scale and quality of overseas investments, which is essential for GNI formation [9] - The government is actively promoting effective investment policies and planning major projects to stimulate economic growth [10][11] - The recent increase in gold reserves by the central bank indicates a strategic move to bolster financial stability amid market fluctuations [13]

Core Insights - The software sector is experiencing a significant sell-off, termed "SaaSpocalypse," with major companies like Thomson Reuters and Salesforce facing steep declines in stock prices, with the S&P 500 Software and Services Index dropping nearly 13% over five trading days and 26% from its October peak [1] - The launch of Anthropic's Claude Cowork, a general AI agent capable of interacting with user files, has raised concerns about the viability of traditional SaaS business models, as users may achieve results comparable to expensive enterprise software through natural language commands [1] - The current market panic mirrors a previous incident involving DeepSeek, which also caused a rapid sell-off in tech stocks, highlighting a pattern of investor reaction to emerging AI technologies [2][3] Market Reactions - The sell-off triggered by Cowork has been more prolonged than the DeepSeek panic, with the latter's effects dissipating within a day, while Cowork's impact has spread over a week, affecting markets globally [5] - The Cowork panic is driven by a closed-source model from a U.S. company, contrasting with DeepSeek's open-source model from China, suggesting a deeper challenge to established software companies [4] SaaS Pricing Models - Traditional SaaS companies are transitioning from fixed pricing models to usage-based pricing due to the increased efficiency and accessibility of AI, with 79 out of 500 tracked companies adopting point-based pricing, a 126% increase year-on-year [8] - Companies like Salesforce have struggled with pricing strategies, leading to a shift towards usage-based models as they face rising operational costs [8] AI Integration Challenges - Traditional software companies face resistance to price increases associated with AI integration, as seen in Microsoft's case, where customers rejected higher fees for AI features [9] - Many established firms are struggling to effectively incorporate AI into their existing products, leading to inefficiencies and a lack of user engagement [9] Emerging Trends - The rise of Vibe Coding, which allows individuals and companies to create their own tools, poses a threat to traditional software sales, as businesses may prefer to develop customized solutions rather than purchase third-party software [11] - The demand for software is shifting towards solutions that address specific, non-standard needs, indicating a potential decline in the traditional SaaS model [13]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The investment theme of the US stock technology sector in 2026 may be "shrinking the circle", with hardware outperforming software and platforms, and the market favoring companies with a closed - loop business model and more robust financial conditions [3][5]. - In the short term, the risk of US stock earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate defensive value sectors or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic [15][18]. - Under regulatory guidance, Chinese stocks are moving forward steadily in a "slow - bull" market with a "slower slope". It is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped [19][23]. - The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. The current situation may be close to that of 1997 from the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC [37]. Summary by Related Contents US Stocks - **Market Performance and Catalysts**: The US stock market had a 3 - day consecutive decline this week. The more stringent assessment of the "quality" of the earnings reports of US stock technology giants was the "trigger" for this adjustment. Since last November, the market's narrative on AI investment has shifted from "arms race" to "return on investment" [5]. - **Earnings Report Analysis of Tech Giants**: The 7 Sisters' guidance on Capex expenditure in 2026 is generally aggressive, almost doubling that of 2025. Google's earnings report exceeded expectations, but the doubling of Capex still caused a decline after the report. Microsoft was under pressure due to the disproportionate increase in cloud business revenue and capital expenditure. The ROIC of the 7 Sisters in Q4 2025 continued to decline, but the decline rate and slope were still controllable [3][9][11]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, the risk of earnings reports has not been fully cleared. It is recommended to allocate appropriate value sectors for defense or consider going long on VIX to hedge risks. The 200 - day moving average may be a short - term effective support level for the Nasdaq. In the medium to long term, the investment opportunities in the US stock technology sector are still optimistic, with hardware outperforming the 7 Sisters and application software, and Google with a closed - loop business model being more favored [15][16][18]. - **AI Bubble Analysis**: The AI in the US stock market is a local bubble rather than a systemic one. The market is currently punishing individual companies with aggressive capital expenditures. From the perspective of the technology industry's ROIC, the current situation may be close to that of 1997. It is necessary to dynamically track whether the "ROIC - WACC" at the level of US stock technology giants and indices shows a sharp convergence trend [37]. Chinese Stocks - **Market Performance and Influencing Factors**: This week, the overall Chinese stock market was volatile and weak, with low - level cyclical and high - dividend sectors leading the rise. The performance of Hong Kong stocks was relatively weaker than that of A - shares, mainly affected by three factors: rumors of VAT adjustment, the anxiety about the subversion of the software ecosystem by Anthropic Claude, and the weak performance of A - shares and US stocks [19][20]. - **Investment Strategy**: In the short term, it is recommended to hold stocks during the Spring Festival, but the allocation should be balanced, focusing on high - quality performance lines and supplemented by low - level cyclical and dividend sectors. In the medium term, three main investment lines should be grasped: technology assets with a clear industrial trend supported by policies, some new energy and chemical sectors with "supply - side clearance" and "demand - side improvement", and the non - ferrous sector supported by tight supply, strong structural demand, and catalyzed by interest rate cuts [23]. A - Share Earnings Forecast - The stocks in A - shares with an expected doubling of earnings growth are mainly concentrated in industries such as electronics, basic chemicals, biomedicine, and power equipment. For example, companies like Huisheng Bio, Kemeite Gas, and Xinqianglian are among them [24].

Market Overview - The class equity market experienced fluctuations and corrections from February 2 to 6, with the Wande All A closing at 6682.47, down 1.49% from January 30[1] - The trading volume on February 6 was 2.16 trillion yuan, marking the lowest since the beginning of the year[1] - Financing balances saw a net outflow for six consecutive days, the first occurrence since mid-April 2025, totaling a net outflow of 612 billion yuan from January 30 to February 5[1][16] Trading Strategies - Three trading strategies emerged: low-position rebounds (e.g., liquor, real estate), high-position speculation (e.g., computing hardware), and theme-driven (e.g., AI applications), all facing significant trading difficulties[1][21] - Historical data indicates that extreme volume contraction often precedes market rebounds, with the current contraction nearing the upper limit of the 30%-50% range observed since 2019[2][39] Convertible Bond Insights - Convertible bond valuations have shown an upward trend, with the valuation center for bonds at a par value of 80 yuan rising by 3.27 percentage points to 57.02% as of February 6[3][26] - The current valuation levels for convertible bonds are at historical highs, with estimates indicating that the valuation centers for various par values are in the 99%-100% historical percentile range[3][30] External Market Influences - The U.S. stock market saw a significant rebound on February 6, with the Nasdaq index rising by 2.18%, which may positively influence A-share market sentiment[2][44] - The overall risk appetite in overseas markets has declined, with industrial metals experiencing widespread declines while gold prices showed slight recovery[3][31] Risk Considerations - Potential risks include accelerated rotation in equity market styles and unexpected adjustments in convertible bond market rules[4]

Core Viewpoint - Recent declines in technology stocks globally are attributed to liquidity shocks from the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Federal Reserve Chair and a lack of new catalysts in the AI sector, particularly following the release of Anthropic's new AI tool, which raised concerns about the disruption of traditional software business models [2][36] Market Analysis - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with a potential for stronger performance post-holiday compared to pre-holiday levels. The main focus will shift towards sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, food and beverages, and construction materials benefiting from major projects outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][36] - The Hong Kong stock market, particularly the Hang Seng Tech Index, has shown signs of recovery potential, especially if the liquidity shock subsides or new catalysts emerge in the AI industry [8][19] Sector Performance - The A-share market has seen a mixed performance, with consumer leaders and large-cap value stocks performing well, while tech-heavy indices like the STAR Market and tech leaders have struggled [37] - The manufacturing sector's PMI has shown a decline, indicating a contraction in activity, while heavy truck sales have seen a significant year-on-year increase, suggesting some resilience in specific segments [40][52] Investment Trends - There has been a notable outflow of financing funds, with a net outflow of 34.59 billion yuan in the first four trading days of the week. However, there has been a net subscription in ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [4][56] - The recent launch of Anthropic's AI tool has triggered a sell-off in legal and data service stocks, raising fundamental questions about the profitability and growth prospects of the SaaS industry [22][26] Future Outlook - The software industry is undergoing a structural adjustment rather than a fundamental collapse, with a shift towards AI-native intelligent services expected to redefine business models [32][35] - The Chinese SaaS industry is positioned to benefit from ongoing digital transformation demands, with AI viewed as an enabling tool rather than a direct disruptor of existing business models [33][35]

2月8日晚，美图公司发布公告披露最新财务业绩状况，按非国际财务报告准则，2025年度经调整后归属 于母公司权益持有人净利润同比增长约60%至66%。 此外，公告还披露，按国际财务报告准则，预期2025年归属母公司权益持有人净利润较去年同期下降不 超过30%。其一是因为美图2024年售出全部加密货币获得约6.4亿元的一次性净收益，导致基数较高； 其二是因为2025年完成向阿里巴巴发行可转股债券，产生约5.12亿元的一笔一次性、非现金开支。美图 公司强调，以上两项均为一次性、非运营项目，与公司主营业务影像与设计产品无关。经调整归属母公 司权益持有人净利润，更能反映公司核心经营表现。 美图将于3月27日发布2025全年业绩。2024年，美图总收入33.4亿元，同比增长23.9%，经调整净利润 5.86亿元，同比增长59.2%。 美图公司表示，盈利能力的显著提升，主要得益于主营业务影像与设计产品收入实现快速增长，这一增 长主要由全球付费订阅用户数的快速增加驱动。其中，来自国际市场的付费订阅用户增速高于中国内地 市场。 ...

经调整归属母公司权益持有人净利润剔除若干非现金及非运营项目(如股权激励、集团长期投资的公允 价值变动等)，因此董事会认为其更能反映集团核心经营表现。 在考虑所有非现金及非运营项目后，按国际财务报告准则，预期2025年度归属母公司权益持有人净利润 较去年同期下降不超过 30%。该下降主要由于：(i)去年同期因售出全部加密货币而获得约人民币 6.40 亿元的一笔一次性净收益，导致去年同期基数较高；及(ii)2025年度因完成向阿里巴巴集团发行可转股 债券而产生约人民币 5.12 亿元的一笔一次性、非现金开支。根据国际财务报告准则第 2 号，该项开支 按可转股债券於交割日期的公允价值超出其本金 2.5 亿美元部分予以确认。以上两项均为非运营项目， 与集团主营业务「影像与设计产品」无关。 来源：格隆汇APP 格隆汇2月8日丨美图公司(01357.HK)公布，按非国际财务报告准则，截至2025年12月31日止年度集团的 经调整归属母公司权益持有人净利润较去年同期可能实现60%至66%的同比增长。 该盈利能力的显著提升，主要得益于集团主营业务「影像与设计产品」收入实现快速增长，而该增长主 要由全球付费订阅用户数的快速增加 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 08 日 AI 军备竞赛持续升级，关注高壁垒软件及云服务 计算机周观察 20260208 TMT 及中小盘/计算机 海外互联网大厂发布季报，资本开支持续超预期。过去一周，微软、META、 亚马逊、谷歌等海外科技大厂先后发布季度财报，四家公司明确表示将持续扩 大 AI 领域的相关投资。SaaS 商业模式遭受质疑，关注高壁垒软件及云服务。 ❑ 亚马逊 AWS 超预期大增，资本开支持续扩大影响自由现金流。亚马逊 25 财 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 285 | 5.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | | 3.8 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.2 8.8 26.8 相对表现 5.3 -4.1 6.0 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 Feb/25 May/25 Sep/25 Jan/26 (%) 计算机 沪深300 相关报告 1、《板块配置进一步下降，服务器、 智驾获机 ...