Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to buy long IH or IF index futures related to the economy on dips, or buy long IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" opportunistically [3]. - The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to buy long gold on dips, and temporarily observe silver [8]. - For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand fundamentals and price trends [10][11][14]. - For black building materials, the short - term demand for steel plates and exports may strengthen, but the long - term demand is still under pressure; the prices of other varieties are also affected by supply - demand and external factors [21][22]. - For energy and chemical products, different trading strategies are given based on factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and cost [37][38]. - For agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to the supply - demand situation and price trends of each variety [48][49]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - Index performance: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.38%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.77%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1169.7 billion yuan, an increase of 83.2 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - Macro news: From January to April, the national general public budget revenue decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 4.6% year - on - year; the four major banks announced a reduction in deposit interest rates, and the LPR rate in May decreased by 10 basis points; the EU significantly lowered its economic growth forecast due to tariff impacts [2]. - Capital situation: The margin trading balance increased by 3.597 billion yuan; the overnight Shibor rate decreased by 2.80bp to 1.5090%; the credit spread decreased by 1.73bp to 135bp; the Sino - US interest rate spread decreased by 0.57bp to - 276bp [2]. - Trading logic: After the policy support, the risk appetite of the stock market has recovered. It is recommended to buy long IH or IF index futures on dips, or buy long IC or IM futures opportunistically [3]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy long IF index futures on dips, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market conditions: On Tuesday, the TL main contract fell 0.03%, the T main contract rose 0.03%, the TF main contract fell 0.04%, and the TS main contract fell 0.03% [5]. - News: The LPR decreased by 10 basis points in May; the six major banks announced a reduction in deposit interest rates [5]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted 357 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 177 billion yuan [6]. - Strategy: The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after the correction and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Market performance: Shanghai gold rose 2.11%, Shanghai silver rose 1.68%; COMEX gold rose 0.30%, COMEX silver rose 0.43% [7]. - Market outlook: Due to Trump's statements, the US fiscal deficit expectation has changed, driving the prices of gold and silver to strengthen. It is recommended to buy long gold on dips and temporarily observe silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: The price rebounded after a decline. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the support for copper prices is weakening. It is expected that the rebound of copper prices will not be smooth [10]. - Aluminum: The price recovered. The inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the seasonal weakness of consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices. The short - term price is expected to be volatile [11]. - Zinc and Lead: After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term sentiment of commodities has improved. The medium - term price of lead is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the short - term price shows a relatively strong fluctuation [12][13]. - Nickel: The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the price is expected to be bearish [14]. - Tin: The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to loosen. If the downstream demand remains weak, the center of tin prices may move down [15]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply - demand side lacks strong driving forces. The price is at the cost - intensive area, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [16]. - Alumina: There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply ends. It is recommended to observe in the short term [17]. - Stainless Steel: The short - term market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern [18]. Black Building Materials - Steel: The price of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. The demand for steel plates and exports may strengthen in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [20][21]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is necessary to pay attention to macro progress and changes in fundamental demand [22]. - Glass and Soda Ash: The price of glass is expected to be weak in the medium term; the supply of soda ash is expected to decrease due to maintenance, but the medium - term supply is still loose, and the price is expected to be weak [23][24]. - Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon: It is recommended to observe for both. The demand for manganese silicon is expected to weaken, and the price of ferrosilicon may still face pressure [25][26]. - Industrial Silicon: The industry has obvious over - capacity, and the price may continue to decline. It is not recommended to buy on dips prematurely [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Rubber: There is an expectation of rubber storage and production reduction, but the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish mindset and operate in the short - term [33]. - Crude Oil: The current oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is recommended to short on rallies [36][37]. - Methanol: The price is expected to remain weak. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity after the spread rises [38]. - Urea: The market presents a pattern of both supply and demand being strong. It is recommended to observe and consider buying on dips after a significant correction [39]. - PVC: The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [40]. - Ethylene Glycol: The industry is in the inventory - reduction stage. There are risks in the short term due to the large - scale repair of the valuation [42]. - PTA: The supply is in the maintenance season, and the price is expected to be supported. Attention should be paid to risks due to the short - term rise of valuation [43]. - PX: It is in the maintenance season and is expected to reduce inventory in the second quarter. Attention should be paid to risks due to the short - term rise of valuation [44]. - Polyethylene PE: The valuation has limited upward space. The price is expected to be volatile in the long - term [45]. - Polypropylene PP: The price is expected to be volatile and bearish in May [46]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The short - term price may be stable, and the long - term trend is pessimistic. It is recommended to sell on rallies in the medium - term [48]. - Eggs: The supply is sufficient, and the price is expected to be under pressure. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [49]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The short - term supply of domestic soybeans is large, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [50][52]. - Oils and Fats: The price is expected to be weakly volatile due to factors such as the recovery of palm oil production and the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy [53][55]. - Sugar: The international market supply is expected to increase, and the domestic sugar price is likely to weaken [56][57]. - Cotton: The short - term price is expected to be strongly volatile due to the improvement of market confidence and the acceleration of inventory reduction [58][59].

Macro and Strategy Research - In April 2025, the industrial added value increased by 6.1% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 5.2% but lower than the previous value of 7.7% [2] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5.1% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5.5% and previous 5.9% [2] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, which is lower than both the expected 4.2% and the previous value of 4.2% [2] - The production growth rate of nearly 80% of industries slowed down due to tariff impacts, with industrial enterprises' export delivery value growth dropping significantly by 6.8 percentage points to 0.9% [2] - The service industry production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with modern service sectors like information technology and finance showing relatively fast growth [2] Consumption Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of consumer goods slowed down in April, primarily due to a decline in automobile consumption driven by price reductions [3] - The "old-for-new" policy continued to boost furniture and home appliance consumption, while rising gold prices increased jewelry consumption [3] - Service retail sales from January to April grew by 5.1% year-on-year, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales by 0.4 percentage points [3] - May is expected to see an increase in retail sales growth due to holiday consumption and the continuous refinement of national policies to expand domestic demand [3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment growth slightly decreased in April, with manufacturing investment dropping by 1.0 percentage points to 8.2% year-on-year [4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 3.0 percentage points to 9.6%, with central government-led investments in electricity, heating, and water declining [4] - Real estate investment growth saw a year-on-year decline of 1.3 percentage points to -11.3%, with sales in major cities stabilizing [4] - The central bank's further reduction of mortgage rates may not yield immediate effects, and real estate investment growth is expected to remain at a low level until urban renewal projects progress [4] Fixed Income Research - The issuance scale of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds seeing zero issuance and a reduction in company bonds, medium-term notes, and directed tools [6] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased, with corporate bonds and short-term financing bonds showing negative net financing [6] - The secondary market saw an increase in transaction amounts, with credit bond yields showing differentiation [6] - The overall conditions for a bear market in credit bonds are not sufficient, and long-term yields are expected to enter a downward channel [6] Industry Research - The Guinea government has reclaimed 51 mining licenses, impacting the mining sector [10] - The steel industry faces short-term pressure due to increased rainfall in southern regions, affecting demand [10] - The copper market is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and export behaviors, with prices expected to fluctuate [10] - The aluminum market is supported by improved US-China trade relations, but domestic demand is entering a low season [10] - The gold market may experience fluctuations influenced by US economic data and geopolitical situations [10] - The lithium market is facing oversupply, with export behaviors impacting demand [10]

Core Insights - The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is gradually stabilizing following a reduction in gas supply through pipelines from Russia to Europe, with strong supply from the United States and expected capacity increases from Qatar later in the decade [1] - Demand for LNG in both Asian and European markets remains weak, and prices have not yet recovered to pre-2020 levels due to a sharp decline in global LNG demand from late 2021 to 2023 [1] - A seminar will analyze anticipated supply growth trends and identify LNG receiving terminal projects that are expected to reach financial closure and commence construction in the coming years [1] Group 1 - The LNG research team will present at the LSEG Academy webinar discussing the LNG supply and demand outlook for 2025 [1] - The seminar will delve into the impact of recent demand reductions on the LNG market and pricing [1] Group 2 - Key speakers at the seminar include Samuel Good, Shruti Shah, and Olumide Ajayi, all experts in LNG research at LSEG [2] - The agenda for the seminar includes discussions on supply growth and market dynamics [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market shows a mixed trend, with some indices rising and some falling. The impact of Trump's tariff policy on market risk preference has weakened, and it is recommended to buy certain stock index futures on dips. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure due to tariff negotiations, but the subsequent capital supply is expected to be loose. The precious metals market is under pressure due to the expected release of geopolitical risks and the cautious attitude of the Fed. The prices of various non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international situations, showing different trends and investment opportunities [2][4][6][7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index unchanged, the ChiNext Index down 0.33%, and the North - bound 50 up 2.37%. The total trading volume of the two markets was 108.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.1 billion yuan from the previous day. The financing amount decreased by 1.883 billion yuan, and the overnight Shibor rate increased by 11.70bp to 1.6540%. [2] - **Macro News**: In April, China's social consumer goods retail sales growth slowed to 5.1% year - on - year, and the national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The 30 - year US Treasury yield exceeded 5%, and Moody's downgraded the US credit rating [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IF stock index long positions on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Monday, the TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts all rose, with increases of 0.37%, 0.13%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively [5]. - **News**: In April, economic data showed certain disturbances due to tariffs, with structural differentiation. The central bank conducted 135 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net investment of 9.2 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, but considering the decline in capital interest rates after reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, it is recommended to wait for opportunities to buy on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.97% to 758.02 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.25% to 8111.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold and silver fell slightly [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The cease - fire negotiation between Russia and Ukraine shows new signs of progress, and the Fed maintains a cautious monetary policy stance. International gold prices are expected to continue to correct in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for gold, and pay attention to the 700 yuan/gram support level. Silver is expected to maintain a range - bound pattern [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper oscillated and rebounded. The LME inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly. The short - term rebound space of copper prices may be limited [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum fell under pressure. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod inventory decline slowed down. It is recommended to pay attention to the inter - month positive spread opportunities of aluminum [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc fell slightly. The zinc concentrate port inventory continued to rise, and the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead fell slightly. The regenerative lead enterprise's operating rate continued to decline, and the short - term lead price showed a strong oscillation [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the inventory may return to the accumulation trend. It is recommended to pay attention to the change of LME nickel 0 - 3 month premium [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose slightly. The supply of tin is expected to loosen in the medium term. If the downstream demand remains weak, the center of tin prices may move down [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate fell. The fundamentals lack favorable drivers, and the short - term disk may run weakly [16]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose. The mine and supply side are disturbed. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel fell slightly. The cost support is enhanced, but the terminal procurement is still cautious. The short - term may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [18]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of steel showed a weak oscillation. The apparent demand for rebar increased slightly, and the hot - rolled coil may show a strong oscillation in the short term. The long - term demand is still under pressure [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore fell slightly. The supply increased, and the demand for molten iron is expected to decline. The short - term price of iron ore will oscillate [22][23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass is expected to be weak in the medium term. The supply of soda ash is expected to decrease, but the inventory pressure is still large, and the disk is expected to be weak [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon fell slightly. The demand for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is expected to weaken, and it is recommended to wait and see [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell slightly. The industry has over - capacity, and the price may continue to fall. It is recommended to wait and see [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. There is an expectation of rubber storage and production reduction, but the demand is in the off - season. The market has different views on the rise and fall of prices [33]. - **Crude Oil**: The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil rose, and the INE crude oil price fell. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [36][37]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol fell. The production profit is high, but the downstream performance is weak. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [38]. - **Urea**: The price of urea fell. The supply and demand are both strong, but the price increase is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [39]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose slightly. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be weak [40]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but attention should be paid to risks [41][42]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is expected to be strong. The processing fee has support, but attention should be paid to risks [43]. - **Para - Xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. Attention should be paid to risks [44]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The price of polyethylene is expected to maintain an oscillation. The supply pressure increases in the second quarter, and the demand is in the off - season [45][46]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The price of polypropylene is expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season [47]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs is mainly stable, with a weakening trend. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies in the medium term [49]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs is weak. The supply is sufficient, and the demand is general. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies for near - month contracts [50]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of domestic soybean meal fell. The short - term supply of soybeans is large, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [51][52]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats is expected to oscillate weakly. The production of palm oil is recovering, and the US biodiesel policy may be lower than expected [53][56]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international market supply tension may ease, and the domestic sugar price may weaken [57][58]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term. The downstream operating rate increased slightly, and the inventory is being depleted [59].

Group 1 - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to set position limits to curb excessive holdings [1] - Emirates Global Aluminium is advancing plans to build its first new primary aluminium production plant in the United States [1] - Goldman Sachs maintains a cautious outlook on oil prices, citing potential pressure from increased Iranian supply [1] Group 2 - Iranian Foreign Minister states that uranium enrichment activities will continue regardless of any agreements reached [1] - The Iranian President warns Western countries of the consequences of interrupting oil supplies, suggesting they would face paralysis [1] - Turkey has discovered natural gas in the Black Sea valued at $30 billion [1] Group 3 - The CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company indicates that the UAE and the US plan to invest $440 billion in the energy sector by 2035 [1] - According to trade sources, Angola is set to load 33 oil tankers in July, down from 34 in June [1]

证券研究报告 宏观 关税降级带动出口跳升、生产回暖 华泰研究 2025 年 5 月 18 日│中国内地 国内周报 一周概览 5月12日中美发布联声明，将4月2日以来双方加征的125%关税降至34%， 并对其中 24%的关税暂停 90 天实施，仅加征 10%的关税。上周港口高频 指标显示出口活跃度较快回升，到港船舶数量同比由前一周的-11%回正至 1%，或显示抢出口和产能出海的需求有望继续支撑中国出口。出口需求亦 带动工业生产同比回暖，基建活动走强，但地产及建筑活动放缓。 高频经济活动跟踪 港口高频数据显示上周出口活跃度低位跳升，集装箱美线运价上涨，工业 生产及基建活动同比亦有回暖，地产成交同比增速回落。出行及消费方面， 上周 18 城地铁客运量同比上升 0.9%，乘用车零售同比回升 37.3%；工业 生产方面，焦化/高炉开工率同比回升 2.3/2.6 个百分点，水泥企业开工率同 比回升 6.2 个百分点；建筑钢材成交量同比仍在-21.1%的偏弱区间。出口方 面，HDET 高频指标显示 5 月 1-17 日出口或较 4 月回落，但上周降幅有所 改善。地产方面，44 城新房成交面积同比从前一周的 14.4%回落至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market is influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, economic data, and policy changes. Different commodities show various trends and investment opportunities based on their specific fundamentals [1][2][3]. - Trade war impacts are gradually weakening, but uncertainties still exist, affecting market sentiment and price trends [1][4][5]. - Some commodities are expected to be in a state of supply - demand imbalance, leading to price fluctuations and investment strategies [3][4][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals - **Gold**: Market showed Friday oscillations, with international gold priced in London nearly closing at $3200/ounce. Suggested to build long positions opportunistically due to the unchanged de - dollarization logic [1]. - **Silver**: Recommended to short on rebounds or go long on the gold - silver ratio [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Expected to trade in a range due to short - term risk preference decline, weak dollar, and tight spot market, despite inventory accumulation [2]. - **Aluminum**: Likely to maintain a sideways movement in the short term as downstream consumption weakens, and it's advised to wait and see [2]. - **Alumina**: Prices are expected to be strong until an agreement is reached between mining companies and the Guinea government, and a light - position long strategy is recommended [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: With weak fundamentals and limited downward momentum, it's advisable to wait and see [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Suggested to hold short positions or short on rebounds as the market is in a surplus and the bearish sentiment is strong [3]. - **Polysilicon**: Expected to bottom - out and oscillate in the short term, and it's recommended to take profit on long positions and consider shorting the 07 contract later [3]. - **Tin**: Forecasted to trade in a range due to weak risk preference and a weak dollar [3]. Black Industry - **Rebar**: Futures prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations, and it's recommended to close short positions and consider certain arbitrage strategies [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate widely, and it's advised to close short positions and try long positions on the 2509 contract [4]. - **Coking Coal**: It's recommended to wait and see as the market is in a relatively balanced state [4]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: U.S. soybeans are expected to be range - bound, and domestic soybeans are short - term weak and mid - term follow the international market [5]. - **Corn**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate and consolidate as the spot market is weak and trade conditions ease [5]. - **Sugar**: The global sugar market is expected to be in surplus in the 25/26 season, and the short - term is expected to rebound while the long - term is bearish [6]. - **Cotton**: It's recommended to wait and see and adopt a range - trading strategy [6]. - **Palm Oil**: In a seasonal weak phase, and later attention should be paid to production and biodiesel policies [6]. - **Eggs**: Futures prices are expected to oscillate as supply is high and demand is weak with cost support [6]. - **Hogs**: Futures prices are expected to decline as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [6]. - **Apples**: Prices are expected to remain high in the short term, but attention should be paid to fruit consumption and weather conditions [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **LLDPE**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [8]. - **PTA**: PX and PTA are in a de - stocking state, and it's recommended to take profit on long - short spreads and be cautious with single - side trading [8]. - **Rubber**: Bearish sentiment is strong, and it's recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [8]. - **Glass**: Prices are expected to decline slightly, and it's recommended to sell call options above 1250 [8]. - **PP**: Expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the long term. Short - term long positions can be considered, and long - term short positions on far - month contracts are recommended [9]. - **MEG**: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, but long positions should be taken with caution due to high valuation [9]. - **Crude Oil**: Recommended as a short - side allocation due to high supply pressure and potential negative factors [9]. - **Styrene**: Expected to be strong in the short term, and a long - short spread strategy is recommended [10]. - **Soda Ash**: It's recommended to close short positions gradually and consider selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Expected to stop falling and stabilize, waiting for non - aluminum downstream demand to recover [10]. Shipping - **European Line Container Shipping**: The 06 contract should be chased with caution, and an 8 - 10 long - short spread strategy is recommended [11].

针对关税问题，欧盟突然强硬起来！ 来看详细报道！ 欧盟对美强硬表态 据参考消息援引西班牙《阿贝赛报》网站15日报道，欧盟成员国贸易部长已经排除接受与美国达成类似英国所 签署协议的可能性，英国已经承担了10%的基础关税，以避免对汽车和金属征收其他税费。 报道称，15日的欧盟贸易部长会议是在华盛顿决定"暂停"所谓"对等关税"90天之后的第37天召开的。根据"对 等关税"，美国将对欧盟产品征收20%的关税。布鲁塞尔已经威胁说，如果达不成协议，将以两个独立的一揽 子方案进行反击，而这两个方案可能会影响到总价值达1160亿欧元的美国商品。 欧盟理事会轮值主席国波兰的经济部长米哈乌·巴拉诺夫斯基表示，欧洲不会"满足于"与英国类似的协议。他 说："我认为我们可以取得比保持很高关税更好的结果。" 报道称，此前欧盟向美国提出相互取消任何工业产品的所有关税，但特朗普政府仍执迷不悟地要求欧盟对其在 欧洲销售的产品免征增值税。 另据观察者网援引《华尔街日报》15日报道，数名欧盟国家官员当天放风称，欧盟与美国的关税谈判正在取得 进展，欧盟寻求达成一项关税降幅大于美英、中美协议的贸易协定。有欧盟官员指出，美国给英国和中国开出 的条件不足 ...

镍库存195222吨，减少3924吨。 铝库存395450吨，减少1825吨。 伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铜库存179375吨，减少5275吨。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that recent economic data from the U.S. has opened up greater space for adjustments in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, leading to increased expectations for a loosening cycle [2] - Key economic indicators released on Thursday showed a comprehensive weakening: the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.5% month-on-month, significantly deviating from the market expectation of a 0.2% increase; retail sales growth plummeted from 1.7% in March to just 0.1%; and manufacturing output declined by 0.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected drop of 0.2% [2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points to 4.435%, marking the largest decline in nearly two months; the more policy-sensitive 2-year yield fell by 9.2 basis points to 3.961% [2] Group 2 - Current consumer weakness may have surpassed the impact of tariffs, indicating a deeper demand contraction, as warned by Macquarie strategist Thierry Wizman [2] - Walmart's decision to incorporate tariff costs into its pricing structure signifies that pressure on the consumer side may transition from expectation to a tangible impact [2] - In the silver market, the resistance levels are noted at the 7.690-7.760 range, while support levels are identified at 7.330-7.390 [3]