公司点评报告 | 煤炭 证券研究报告 | 公司评级 | 增持（维持） | | --- | --- | | 报告日期 | 2025 年 11 月 02 日 | 基础数据 | 10 月 31 日收盘价（元） | 8.50 | | --- | --- | | 总市值（亿元） | 209.90 | | 总股本（亿股） | 24.69 | 来源：聚源，兴业证券经济与金融研究院整理 相关研究 【兴证煤炭】平煤股份 2025 年半年报点 评：降价减量拖累业绩，西部布局成长 可期-2025.08.31 【兴证煤炭】平煤股份：量价双减拖累 业绩，高分红与资源拓展支撑长期价值- 2025.03.21 分析师：王锟 S0190521010002 wangkun89@xyzq.com.cn 分析师：李冉冉 S0190525010002 liranran@xyzq.com.cn 平煤股份(601666.SH) Q3 业绩承压，静待集团重组赋能 2025Q3：自产煤销售环比大幅改善。2025Q3 单季度，原煤产量为 512 万吨，同 比-25.3%，环比-27.2%；商品煤销量 644 万吨，同比-2.4%，环比+18.8%；自 产煤销 ...

Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 1、供应： ➢ 产地现实供给情况依然不及预期，但随着北方冬季降温的持续兑现，发改委在对外发布会上对于"提升供应能力"再次有所强调， 与反内卷的主题博弈或在未来使得供给预期有所摇摆。 ◆ 2、需求： ➢ 产地交投氛围依然偏暖，且随着下游焦炭进一步提涨预期的加强，或对于高价煤需求形成一定支撑。 ◆ 3、宏观： ➢ 海外方面，中美元首会面如期而至，且多项共识与关税的延期均为前期摩擦降温；国内方面，市场对于十五五规划建议稿的内容 倾向性仍有较高关注，反内卷的主题交易或影响着未来供给侧的预期边际变化。 ◆ 4、观点总结阐述: ➢ 现实供需偏紧，现货价格延续强势；叠加海内外宏观层面风险偏好的持续走高以及国内反内卷相关主题交易的反复，煤焦估值 短期或延续高位震荡态势。 煤焦基本面数据变化 煤焦周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所·张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年11月2日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：供需现实偏紧 ...

行 业 研 究 煤炭 2025 年 11 月 02 日 煤价暂稳蓄力，焦炭第三轮提涨开启 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 770 元/吨， 周环比持平，内蒙、陕西产地价微涨，山西产地价大跌。截至 2025 年 10 月 31 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 545.1 万吨，环比-3.1 万 吨，年同比-5.5%。本周电厂日耗大跌，电厂库存小涨，秦港库存大涨， 截至 10 月 27 日，动力煤库存指数为 184.2（-4.5）。非电方面，甲醇、 尿素开工率分别为 86.7%（+1.1pct）和 80.3%（+2.3pct），仍处于历史 同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 10 月 31 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1760 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 10 月 31 日，523 家样本矿山精 煤日均产量 75.8 万吨（-0.3 万吨），年同比-2.7%，532 家精煤库存 164.5 万吨（-25 万吨），年同比-43.4%；甘其毛都蒙煤通关量 11.3 万吨（-5.0 万吨），年同比+38.5% ...

近期，北方多地遭遇"断崖式"降温，如黑龙江漠河10月25日清晨气温降至-25℃，刷新当地10月下旬历 史最低值;内蒙古呼伦贝尔部分地区跌破-30℃，为近十年同期极寒;黑龙江黑河、漠河等地积雪深度超过 30厘米，部分站点接近或突破50厘米，创下观测史新高。寒潮来袭，张家口、大庆等多地已提前开始供 暖，煤炭季节性消费旺季正式拉开序幕。 需求端，煤炭需求旺季临近，钢厂和火电企业的需求也持续高位，多重因素推动煤价上行;供给端政 策"反内卷"持续，叠加近期安全生产考核巡查将开启，或将对煤炭超能力生产等安全隐患做出整改，也 共同强化了供给收缩的预期，推动煤价企稳回升。 市场层面，资金闻风而动，10月以来富途煤炭指数(LIST1044)已上涨11.19%，申万煤炭指数涨幅也一度 达到16%，10月份北向资金净流入煤炭股超20亿元，使得煤炭成为二级市场上最为火热的板块之一。 回顾2025年上半年，煤炭市场供应整体宽松，需求支撑不足，煤炭价格重心整体延续震荡下行趋势。但 在当前时点，随着旺季需求兑现与供给端政策性收缩形成共振，供需格局的转变或将成为推动煤炭板块 走出低谷、迎来估值修复的重要契机。 煤企Q3基本面已现环比改善 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shaanxi Coal Industry [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a significant improvement in the company's performance due to a rebound in coal prices, with a notable increase in quarterly earnings compared to the previous quarter [6][7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2025, the total revenue is projected at 169.91 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.7%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 18.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 18.5% decline year-on-year. The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.88 yuan [2][7]. - The company reported a total revenue of 118.08 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, down 12.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 12.71 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year [6][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 29.7% for 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 20.6% [2][7]. Market Data - As of October 31, 2025, the closing price of the stock was 25.65 yuan, with a year-to-date high of 25.65 yuan and a low of 18.59 yuan. The price-to-book ratio is 5.63, and the dividend yield is 220.077% [3][6]. Production and Sales Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company produced 13.037 million tons of coal, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, and sold 11.938 million tons, up 1.8% year-on-year. The average selling price per ton of coal was 540 yuan, down 13.0% year-on-year [6][7]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a coal production of 4.297 million tons, a 3.9% increase year-on-year, while the average selling price per ton was 535 yuan, a decrease of 14.15% year-on-year [6][7]. Cost and Expense Management - The company managed to reduce its total expenses in the first three quarters of 2025 to 54.94 billion yuan, down 20.74% year-on-year. Financial expenses decreased by 43.2% due to a reduction in interest-bearing liabilities and lower interest rates [6][7].

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 本周（2025年10月19日--10月31日）交易理想国知识星球共发布46条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 碳酸锂强势上涨的背后 近期碳酸锂表现强势，自10月15日起11个交易日内碳酸锂主力合约价格最高涨幅达16%。在前期供需长期偏过剩，而全球锂资源开发仍在不断 推进环境下，碳酸锂为何仍有如此强势的表现？我们认为需求端发生了一些变化。主要变量来自于以下几个因素： 1.储能系统需求爆发：2025年由于国内补贴政策对储能系统收益率的改善以及海外储能需求的爆发，储能电芯出货量大超预期，2025上半年度 全球储能电芯出货规模240.21 GWh，同比增长106.1%，全年预计出货量达600GWh，同比增长62.1%。同时我们认为因为风光发电对储能需 求，海外储能需求以及AIDC对储能需求的延续，2026年，全球储能电池出货量仍将维持60%的高增速增长。2025/2026年储能电池对碳酸锂的 需求分别由36.7/53.4万吨，上调至39.8/63.6万吨，预期上调8.4%/19.1%。 2. ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes a style rebalancing in the market, focusing on undervalued and stagnant sectors as institutional funds tend to take profits from high-valuation stocks and shift towards low-valuation sectors during the fourth quarter [4][7][16] - The report highlights that the manufacturing PMI for October decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49.0, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with both production and new orders indices showing declines [8][9] - The report notes that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.2% year-on-year from January to September, with September alone seeing a profit growth of 21.6%, driven by high-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors [9][10][11] Group 2 - The report identifies key investment areas, including high-dividend large-cap blue chips such as banks and utilities, new consumption sectors like health and cultural tourism, and sectors benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy such as steel and photovoltaic [4][16] - The report discusses the ongoing reforms in the capital market, particularly the deepening of the ChiNext reform and the enhancement of the Beijing Stock Exchange's role as a capital market hub [12] - The report mentions the positive developments in US-China trade negotiations, which may enhance market resilience and provide a favorable environment for A-share performance [13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that after the previous upward momentum in the A-share market has been exhausted and three major favorable factors were realized at the end of October, the market is facing pressure from emotional decline, a lack of favorable news, and a need for adjustment and consolidation [1] - The report predicts that the market will undergo a new round of sideways adjustment in November, suggesting that investors should pause on increasing positions [1] - The report highlights three main investment directions: "economic recovery indicators, year-end portfolio adjustments, and short-term sector rotations" [1] Group 2 - Key sectors to focus on include coal, oil and petrochemicals, new energy (such as energy storage and solid-state batteries), non-bank financials (including brokerage and insurance), public utilities, media, food and beverage, and transportation [1]

2025 年 11 月 02 日 陕西煤业 (601225) ——2025 年三季报点评：煤价反弹、公司业绩环比大幅 改善 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 184,145 | 118,083 | 169,913 | 181,934 | 197,155 | | 同比增长率（%） | 1.5 | -12.8 | -7.7 | 7.1 | 8.4 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 22,360 | 12,713 | 18,222 | 20,202 | 20,826 | | 同比增长率（%） | -3.2 | -27.2 | -18.5 | 10.9 | 3.1 | | 每股收益（元/股） | 2.31 | 1.31 | 1.88 | 2.08 | 2.15 | | 毛利率（%） | 32.7 | 28.2 | 29.7 | 30.4 | 29.3 | | ROE（%） | 24.7 | 13.5 | 2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨煤炭与消费用燃料 [Table_Title] 2025Q4 动力煤供需缺口有多大？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 从过去 5 年 Q4 用电增速均值来推测，Q4 动力煤供需缺口有多大？经过测算，我们发现 2025Q4 若以国内供应增速和 9 月增速一致、进口量和 9 月一致、非电增速和前三季度增速一致为基 准，假设 Q4 火电发电量环比增速和过去 5 年均值一致，则库存同比有望降低 3904 万吨；若 假设 Q4 火电发电量同比增速和过去 5 年均值一致，则库存同比有望降低 5411 万吨。虽然考 虑到煤价提升后 Q4 进口量也会提升，实际供需缺口或比测算来看小，但当前港口+电厂库存同 比下降幅度仍较小，因此往后来看 2025Q4 供需缺口仍有望进一步扩大，煤价上涨仍有空间。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516080003 SAC：S0490519030001 SAC：S0490517070008 SAC：S0490522090003 SAC：S0490524120007 SFC：BUT918 SFC：BUY139 肖勇 赵 ...