Market Sentiment - The market sentiment remains cautious, with investors not fully trusting the current rally due to past experiences of losses [1][3] - The banking sector is perceived to be suppressing the index, despite its low weight, impacting overall market performance [1] Index Performance - The market is expected to reach 3500 points soon, with the Hong Kong stock market showing positive trends [3] - The real resistance level for the market is identified at 3700 points, which needs to be surpassed for a significant bullish sentiment [3] - The white liquor sector is highlighted as a potential driver for index growth, with expectations of a 300-point increase if it performs well [3] Sector Analysis - The current market dynamics are characterized by sector rotation, with the securities sector being a key player in the ongoing rally [5] - White liquor, insurance, and banking are identified as the main sectors capable of lifting the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The cyclical sectors like steel, cement, and coal are noted to have diminished influence compared to previous decades [5] Trading Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain their trading plans and not to overthink market movements, focusing instead on holding positions for potential gains [7] - The expectation is for a rapid upward movement in the market, suggesting that current levels should not be viewed as a peak [7]

宏观日报 | 2025-07-08 关注新关税对上游价格影响 中观事件总览 生产行业：关注新关税对行业上游影响。 1）美国总统特朗普表示，美国政府将从当天起开始致函贸易伙伴，设 定新的单边关税税率。特朗普称，新关税"十有八九"从8月1日开始生效。特朗普表示，从4日开始，美国将向多个 国家发出信件，预计当天会有"10或12封"发出，更多信件将在未来几天寄出。特朗普称，他预计这些信件将会在9 日前全部送达。此前，特朗普将7月9日设为关税谈判的最后期限。对于将设定的新关税，特朗普说，"关税税率可 能从60%、70%到10%、20%不等"。2）近日，我国多地出现持续高温，带动用电负荷快速增长。统计数据显示，7 月4日，全国最大电力负荷达到14.65亿千瓦，比6月底上升约2亿千瓦，比去年同期增长接近1.5亿千瓦，创历史新 高。其中，华东电网负荷达4.22亿千瓦，空调负荷占比约37%。入夏以来，江苏、山东、河南、安徽、湖北等省级 电网负荷9次创新高。 服务行业：关注跨境支付新政推进。 1）中国人民银行就《人民币跨境支付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》公开征 求意见。《业务规则》明确了CIPS参与者的账户管理、注资、资金结算等 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching the critical resistance level of 3500 points, and a breakthrough is necessary for a new market trend to emerge [1][5] - A bullish sentiment is observed in both A-shares and H-shares, with potential for further gains in sectors like liquor [1][5] - The market is characterized by differing perspectives among investors, with those holding light positions hoping for a decline, while heavily invested individuals anticipate a rise [1][3] Group 2 - The index needs to achieve a significant upward movement beyond 4000 points to stabilize above 3500, indicating a structural issue of oscillating upward trends [3][5] - A slow bull market is expected, with fluctuations and sector rotations rather than a one-sided increase, as the index has reached 3500 despite widespread bearish sentiment [3][5] - The upcoming market shift could lead to a substantial rise in the index if sectors like liquor, securities, and real estate rebound simultaneously [5][6] Group 3 - The current market dynamics suggest that low-cost entry and long-term holding (around 1000 days) are essential strategies for investors [5][6] - Various sectors, including pharmaceuticals, photovoltaics, liquor, real estate, and securities, are at a cyclical low, with only the securities sector showing signs of recovery [5][6] - The market operates on the principle of speculation on expectations, where less favored stocks are more likely to experience upward movement [5][6]

投资策略 | 定期报告 短期攻势暂缓，中期升势未变 策略周报 20250706 研究结论 ⚫ 全球市场下周或延续震荡 全球降息交易暂歇，下周延续震荡预期：前一周全球市场普涨系交易 9 月的美联储 降息预期，本周全球主要市场除巴西、美国和中国上涨外，整体出现震荡态势，降 息交易暂歇。我们认为美国市场本周全面上涨，并不是交易降息预期，主要是交易 政策不确定性下降，"大而美"法案成功落地短期降低了市场对特朗普政府执政能 力的担心，但这一利好已经落地，政策实际落地效果仍然具有不确定性。美国最新 就业数据公布后，利率期货交易员认为美国 7 月降息预期已微乎其微，9 月降息概率 也从 98%下降到 80%以下。综上我们认为全球市场的上涨或告一段落，下周延续震 荡预期。 风险事件乐观定价充分，预期差逆转压制上涨动力：上周中美推进"伦敦框架" （中方审批管制物项出口、美方松绑限制），市场或因此短期下调了风险评价。但 当前定价或已充分反映对关税战的乐观预期，市场可能会开始担心 9 日事件落地结 果难超预期。随着交易焦点转向 7 月 9 日关税休战到期， 风险评价预期短升将压制 全球市场反弹动能。 ⚫ A 股短期攻势或暂缓，关税 ...

Group 1 - The market indices have shown a strong performance, but individual stocks may not reflect this trend, indicating a potential disconnect between indices and stock performance due to the registration system [1] - Concerns about tariffs have led to market exits, but the core stocks in the Shanghai Composite Index, particularly those with domestic focus, are less affected by export-related tariffs [3] - The upcoming market outlook is optimistic, with expectations for a rise towards 3500 points, supported by sectors like banking, liquor, and insurance, although caution is advised regarding increasing positions [5] Group 2 - The market is likely to continue its upward trend, with a tendency for rebounds in the face of negative sentiment, as seen in past events [7] - The performance of key sectors such as insurance, liquor, securities, and real estate will be crucial for supporting the banking sector's growth [5] - The overall market strategy should focus on position management, ensuring profits during rises and maintaining reserves during declines [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that the A-share market has historically spent most of its time below the 3500-point mark, and the focus should not be solely on previous peaks like 6124 and 5178 points [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index's performance is compared to the US stock market, suggesting that a slow and steady growth ("slow bull") is preferable to irrational spikes seen in 2007 and 2015 [1][3] - The importance of the 3500-point level is highlighted, indicating that if the index can stabilize above this point, it would significantly impact the current market trend [3] Group 2 - The article suggests that the market is likely to accelerate upward, with the index expected to break through 3674 points, and the current market structure does not indicate a top [5] - It is noted that the white liquor sector is currently at a low point, which is seen as a positive factor for the market's potential recovery [3] - The analysis indicates that regardless of potential pullbacks, the overall trend remains upward, and any corrections would be limited in scope [5][7]

Production Insights - As of the fourth week of June, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.84%, stable compared to the previous period and above last year's average[11] - The rebar operating rate increased to 43.62%, up by 3.10 percentage points from the previous period, also above last year's average[11] - Cement mill operating rate decreased to 38.14%, down by 4.91 percentage points, slightly below last year's average[11] Inventory Trends - As of the fourth week of June, rebar inventory was 185.65 million tons, up by 1.85 percentage points from the previous period, but below last year's average[28] - Port iron ore inventory decreased to 139.27 million tons, down by 0.05 percentage points, also below last year's average[28] - Cement capacity utilization ratio was 62.76%, down by 0.68 percentage points, remaining stable compared to last year's average[28] Demand Dynamics - In June, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities increased by 45.73 percentage points, exceeding last year's average[55] - The average daily sales of passenger cars reached 95,374 units, reflecting an increase of 18.44% month-on-month and 3.00% year-on-year[82] - The total box office revenue for movies was 53.9 million yuan, up by 22.78% month-on-month, but still lower than last year's level[82] Trade and Pricing - The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell to 1861.51, down by 0.43% from the previous period, while the China Container Freight Index (CCFI) rose to 1369.34, up by 2.00%[89] - The average price of cement was 355.26 yuan per ton, down by 2.05% from the previous period, below last year's average[66] - The price of rebar was 3,070.50 yuan per ton, showing a slight increase of 0.10% from the previous period, but still below last year's average[67]

Market Overview - In H1 2025, there were 76 listed private placement projects in the A-share market, a year-on-year decrease of 7% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 23%[3] - The total fundraising amount reached CNY 695.92 billion, a sixfold increase year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, accounting for 91% of equity financing[3] Investor Participation - The average number of participants per project increased to 23, leading to a selection rate of 57.99%[3] - The bidding projects' full fundraising rate rose to 71.43%, a year-on-year increase of 27 percentage points[3] Discount Rates - The average benchmark discount rate and market price discount rate reached new lows at 11.17% and 11.68%, respectively[3] - 16.67% of bidding projects were priced at the floor price, marking the lowest since H1 2024[3] Performance Metrics - The average absolute return for 43 bidding projects that were unlocked was 24.88%, a significant increase of over 29 percentage points year-on-year[3] - 65% of these projects outperformed the Shenwan first-level industry, with an average excess return of 11.60%[3] Future Outlook - The approval pace for new projects is expected to remain steady, with a focus on small-cap stocks, as 58% of existing bidding projects have a total market value of less than CNY 5 billion[3] - The discount rates are anticipated to remain low, with expected ranges of 10% to 15% in H2 2025, influenced by stable supply and increased participation[3] Risk Factors - Potential risks include slower-than-expected issuance and review progress, changes in market conditions, and fluctuations in secondary market stock prices[3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is shifting towards lower interest rates and a focus on returns, leading to increased attention on high dividend assets in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Dividend Index is becoming an important tool for investors seeking high cash flow and low volatility investments, as the overall valuation of the Hong Kong stock market is at historical median levels [1] - The index tracks 30 high dividend yield securities from Hong Kong-listed companies that meet Stock Connect criteria, emphasizing companies with stable dividend capabilities, primarily in traditional sectors like real estate and energy [1] Group 2 - The popularity of domestic dividend strategy ETFs is rising, which raises expectations for the structure, performance, and investability of the index itself [1] - Investors without stock accounts can consider the Cathay CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect High Dividend Investment ETF Initiated Link A (022274) and Link C (022275) [1]