Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the soybean meal industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the corn industry is neutral [6] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the China - US trade policy game, the short - term focus of the domestic soybean meal market is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. There is still uncertainty about whether the demand for new - season US soybeans can meet expectations [2] - In the corn market, due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, and strong storage capacity of farmers, along with active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3039 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2423 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (-1.18%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3020 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3010 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: From October 16, US soybean export sales net increased by 110.80 tons, up 41% from the previous week and 34% from the four - week average. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting progress reached 36%, higher than the previous week but 9% behind last year and 1% behind the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - After the China - US trade policy game, the focus is on China's actual procurement of US soybeans. With an additional 10% import tariff on US soybeans and a decline in South American soybean premiums, the competitiveness of US soybeans is weakened, and the demand for new - season US soybeans is uncertain [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 2. Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2236 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.36%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2542 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton (-0.94%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton [3] - Market Information: From October 16, US corn export sales net increased by 282.26 tons, up 113% from the previous week and 64% from the four - week average [3] Market Analysis - Due to temperature drops in Northeast China, good quality of new - season corn, strong storage capacity of farmers, and active participation of traders and futures - cash companies in purchasing, the current corn price is supported [4] Strategy - Neutral [6]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products by Guotai Junan Futures on December 2, 2025, covering multiple agricultural futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Palm oil: Wait for the inflection point confirmation and conduct range trading temporarily [2] - Soybean oil: Lack of drive from US soybeans, mainly in a volatile state [2] - Soybean meal: Lack of new sales, US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal adjusted and fluctuated [2] - Soybean: Stable and slightly stronger spot prices support the futures market [2] - Corn: Run in a volatile manner [2] - Sugar: Run weakly [2] - Cotton: Pay attention to the changes in spot basis and the growth rate of warehouse receipts [2] - Eggs: Increased culling volume, positive sentiment for distant contracts [2] - Hogs: Volume reduction has been realized, and the industrial logic will return [2] - Peanuts: Pay attention to the spot market [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Palm Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.30% and a night - session decrease of 0.69%. The spot price in Guangdong remained unchanged. The basis in Guangdong was - 82 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: From November 1 - 30, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36%, and production decreased by 0.19%. Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1 - 30 decreased by 15.89%. Indonesia exported 1,949 million tons of crude and refined palm oil from January to October, a 7.83% increase [5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Soybean oil futures had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.53% and a night - session decrease of 0.34%. The spot price in Guangdong increased by 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was 332 yuan/ton [4] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [9] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Tracking**: For soybean meal futures, DCE soybean meal 2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.36% and a night - session decrease of 0.13%. The spot price range was 3000 - 3140 yuan/ton. For soybean futures, DCE soybean 2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.27% and a night - session increase of 0.56% [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 1, CBOT soybean futures closed down due to lack of sales to China. StoneX lowered Brazil's soybean production forecast to 1.772 billion tons, and as of November 27, Brazil's soybean planting was 89% complete [10][12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [12] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures C2601 had a daily - session closing price decrease of 0.22% and a night - session increase of 0.31%. The spot price in Jinzhou remained unchanged, and the basis of the main contract 01 was 14 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Northern corn port prices and Guangdong Shekou prices remained unchanged. Northeast deep - processing corn prices strengthened, and North China corn prices rose [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [16] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 14.74 US cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5510 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5405 yuan/ton [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: China should focus on the import policy of syrup and premixed powder and the new sugar price in Guangxi. The 25/26 sugar - crushing season's Indian sugar export quota was 1.5 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased by 1% year - on - year, and exports increased by 13% [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [20] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures CF2601 had a daily - session closing price increase of 0.62% and a night - session increase of 0.44%. The spot price in North Xinjiang increased by 40 yuan/ton, and the basis of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 900 yuan/ton [22] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, and the mainstream basis changed little. The cotton yarn market was weak, and downstream procurement was not active. ICE cotton was under pressure due to poor export data [23] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [26] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures 2512 had a closing price decrease of 2.47%, and 2601 had a decrease of 1.21%. The spot price in Liaoning was 3.10 yuan/jin [28] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price in Henan was 11,430 yuan/ton, and the futures price of hogs 2601 was 11,495 yuan/ton. The trading volume of hogs 2601 decreased by 15,052 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,802 lots [30] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [31] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: The spot price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,700 yuan/ton, and the futures price of PK601 was 8,152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.39%. The trading volume of PK601 decreased by 38,276 lots, and the open interest decreased by 5,602 lots [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: In Henan, peanut prices were stable; in Jilin and Liaoning, prices were stable or slightly weak; in Shandong, prices were stable [34] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [35]

Report Overview - **Industry**: Soybean Meal [1] - **Date**: December 2, 2025 [2] - **Research Team**: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's November monthly supply - demand report slightly lowered the ending inventory to 290 million bushels, which is slightly bearish. The NOPA's October crushing data exceeded expectations, and the new - season crushing demand remains high. The external market may oscillate at a high level, lacking a clear driving force, and attention should be paid to China's actual soybean purchases and South American weather. [6] - Domestic soybean meal fluctuates at a high level following CBOT soybeans. It is supported by cost increases and low crushing profits, but there is inventory pressure. Without additional external bullish factors, the upward pressure will increase. [6] - In terms of operations, the recent fluctuations may decrease, and it should be treated as a high - level oscillation. For options, pay attention to the straddle double - selling strategy. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review** - The external market of US soybean futures contracts oscillated, with the main contract at 1130 cents. The USDA's November report adjusted the yield and export volume, slightly lowering the ending inventory. The NOPA's October crushing data was the highest in a single - month history. [6] - Domestic soybean meal followed CBOT soybeans to oscillate at a high level and returned to the cost - pricing model of CBOT soybeans after the Sino - US agreement. [6] - **Operation Suggestions** - Treat it as a high - level oscillation, and the recent fluctuations may decrease. Consider the straddle double - selling strategy for options. [6] 3.2 Industry News - As of the week ending October 16, US soybean export sales increased by 1.108 million tons, and the export shipments increased by 150% compared to the previous week. [7][9] - The overall growth of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop indicates that the yield potential in most regions will be lower than that in 2024/25. The current sowing progress is 86.97%. [9] 3.3 Data Overview - No specific data overview content is summarized in the report, only mentions data sources. [20][21]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 02 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 隔夜夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘2601合约涨幅0.27%，收于2243元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价涨跌互现。东北地区深加工企业 | | | | | 收购价2078元/吨，较28日涨21元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购价2277元/吨，较2 | | | | | 8日跌3元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日港口价格涨势延续。昨日锦州港15%水二等新季玉 | | | | | 米收购价2210-2240元/吨左右，较28日涨10元/吨；蛇口港成交价2400元/吨，较28 | | | | | 日涨10元/吨。 | | | | | 3、昨日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增减0 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different price trends and influencing factors. Overall, most varieties are expected to be in a state of shock, with some having upward or downward trends [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Yesterday, the market showed shock and differentiation. Pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [5]. - **Logic**: Due to technical buying, US soybeans and soybean oil rose last Friday. Yesterday, domestic oils and fats showed shock and differentiation, with rapeseed oil showing a weak shock. From a macro - environmental perspective, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, and there may be progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The crude oil market faces geopolitical uncertainties, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the production forecast in 2026. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil fell slightly. From an industrial perspective, the planting of South American soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the planting of Brazilian soybeans is in the later stage. The planting of Argentine soybeans is expected to accelerate. As of the week of November 26, the planting progress of Argentine soybeans was 36%, with a five - year average of 37.24%. Continue to pay attention to China's procurement of US soybeans and changes in US biodiesel policies. Recently, the domestic soybean inventory is relatively high, and the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is relatively large, so the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. For palm oil, the expected increase in the monthly output of Malaysian palm oil in November has narrowed. The output of Malaysian palm oil from November 1 - 20 increased by 3.24% month - on - month according to MPOA and decreased by 0.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The exports of Malaysian palm oil in November decreased by 19.7% and 15.9% according to ITS and AmSpec respectively. Since this year, the consumption of palm oil by Indonesian biodiesel has increased year - on - year, and the inventory of Indonesian palm oil has remained low. The import of Indian vegetable oil may decline seasonally. For rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply is currently tight, and the rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. However, with the large - scale listing of Russian rapeseed, the domestic rapeseed oil supply is expected to increase in the later stage. Also, pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade relations and the import of Canadian rapeseed [5]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a strong shock, palm oil in a strong shock, and rapeseed oil in a shock. Recently, the sentiment in the oils and fats market has stabilized, the cost of domestic soybean oil continues to provide support, the domestic rapeseed supply is tight, and rapeseed oil continues to de - stock. Continue to pay attention to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil in November [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The spot price is firm, the futures market shows a shock, and the basis of soybean meal has increased slightly [6]. - **Logic**: On December 1, 2025, the international soybean trade premium and discount quotes showed different changes. The average profit of China's imported soybean crushing was - 49.58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of + 12.64 yuan/ton or - 20.32%. Internationally, the premium and discount spread between North and South American soybeans has narrowed, and attention should be paid to China's procurement. South American soybeans are affected by La Nina. The global agricultural meteorological report shows that in the next two weeks, there will be significant climate differentiation in the main agricultural areas of South America: continuous heavy rain in the central and northern parts of Brazil, increasing the risk of local floods, while the drought in Argentina and southern Brazil is deteriorating, increasing the growth pressure on new - season corn and soybeans. Overall, it is expected that US soybeans will operate in the range of [1100 - 1170]. Domestically, in the short term, the soybean inventory is high, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal is slow, and the logic of futures - spot convergence dominates the narrow - range fluctuation of the January contract. In the medium term, China has returned to the US soybean market, and the procurement progress in January has exceeded 45%. The import of Australian seeds is expected to be strong. The inventory of soybean meal of downstream feed and breeding enterprises has increased year - on - year. Pay attention to the performance of the consumption peak season in December. It is expected that the basis of soybean meal will increase slightly, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract may widen. In the long term, whether the weather in South America is normal determines the price trend and increase or decrease of soybean meal [6][7]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to be in a shock. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has increased, China's procurement has returned to the US soybean market, and attention should be paid to the hype of La Nina for South American soybeans. It is expected that US soybeans will be in a high - level shock. The import crushing profit has been repaired, soybean procurement has accelerated, the seasonal de - stocking of soybean meal by oil mills is slow, downstream buyers have placed orders at low prices in the futures market, and spot transactions have increased, leading to an increase in the basis. It is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal will be in a range - bound shock. Pay attention to the long - position opportunity of the M2605 contract after the change of the main contract [7]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **Viewpoint**: The price in the Northeast continues to strengthen, and pressure is beginning to appear in North China [8]. - **Logic**: Today, domestic corn prices have shown mixed trends. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in the Northeast has decreased significantly, and they have generally raised prices to increase the volume. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in North China is uneven, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly according to actual conditions. The arrival volume at ports has increased, and prices are temporarily stable under the support of demand. Recently, the futures and spot prices of corn have been strong. The core indicator supporting the strong price is the low - level operation of the inventory at northern ports, and this trend will temporarily continue. Due to the difference in grain quality structure and regional price spread, the outflow of corn from the Northeast is much higher than that of the same period last year, which is the core reason why the port inventory has not been accumulated. First, the quality of corn in North China is poor and the toxin content is high, so local corn cannot flow into the feed market in large quantities, resulting in feed enterprises in various places purchasing orders from the Northeast. Second, since the price of corn in the Northwest has been rising since the start of the purchase, the cost of traders is relatively high, and the price of corn in the Northwest is continuously inverted with the sales area, so it cannot supply the gap in the sales area in the short term. Therefore, the national demand depends on Northeast corn (with good quality and high bulk density) in the short term, resulting in a much higher outflow of Northeast corn than in previous years. In addition, many traders pre - sold corn (signed sales contracts but did not purchase) because the market was generally bearish before. As the contracts are approaching the expiration date, traders are rushing to purchase and ship the grain to fulfill the contracts; there are even cases of repeated purchases due to the tight transportation capacity, and the short - term concentrated demand has pushed up the price at northern ports. In North China, as the mainstream price in Shandong reaches 2300 yuan/ton, the market's reluctance to sell has been significantly alleviated, and the supply of wet corn has gradually increased, which will limit the further increase in prices. In the short term, the bullish driving force continues, and the price will maintain a strong shock. In the future, it is still necessary to wait for the release of upstream inventory and the alleviation of the downstream tense situation. Before the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is effectively repaired, the price is likely to remain in a high - level shock. Currently, it is a game between the realization of selling pressure and the inventory building of traders. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to changes in port inventory and wheat prices [8][9]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a shock. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see. The bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the shock trend of the spot price will continue [9]. 3.4 Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The pressure of slaughter remains, and the price is in a low - level shock [10]. - **Logic**: **Supply**: In the short term, the number of second - fattened pigs in late November decreased by 18% month - on - month, and large pigs were put on the market. In the medium term, the production capacity of sows in the first half of 2025 was still fluctuating at a high level, and the number of newly - born piglets from January to October continued to increase month - on - month. According to the breeding cycle, it is expected that the supply of commercial pigs will continue to be in excess until the first quarter of 2026. In the long term, the production capacity of sows began to decline in the third quarter of 2025. According to the samples of the Ministry of Agriculture, the number of sows decreased month - on - month from July to October, and the national sow inventory in October decreased to 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.1%. Currently, the self - breeding and self - raising of pigs continue to be in a loss state. Driven by "policy + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure may gradually ease in the second half of 2026. **Demand**: There is sporadic bacon - curing in the South, and the demand drive is still insufficient. **Inventory**: The average slaughter weight has increased for three consecutive weeks. **Rhythm**: In the short term, the supply of pigs is abundant, the inventory of large pigs is large, the slaughter weight of large - scale farms has increased, the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased month - on - month but is still at a high level, the supply and demand are loose, and the pig price is weak. In the medium term, according to the production capacity realization cycle of sows and piglets, the supply of commercial pigs will remain at a high level before the first quarter of 2026, and the cycle is still in a downward trend. In the long term, the production capacity of sows in the country began to show signs of decline in the third quarter of 2025. Currently, driven by "anti - involution + loss", the reduction of sow production is expected to continue, and the supply pressure is expected to gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be in a weak shock. In the near - term, in the fourth quarter, pigs are still in the period of high - level production capacity realization, and the pressure of large - pig slaughter at the end of the year will continue to weaken the pig price. In the far - term, the Ministry of Agriculture guides enterprises to reduce production, and the breeding profit continues to be in a loss state, which is conducive to the reduction of production capacity in the fourth quarter. The price of far - month contracts is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. The pig industry shows a pattern of "weak reality + strong expectation". Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage strategies [10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: It fell against the trend of industrial products, and the price is in a range - bound shock [12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the weakening of floods in Thailand, the pressure of increased output, the accumulation of inventory at domestic ports, and the weak trend of Japanese rubber, the price of natural rubber fell against the trend of industrial products yesterday. Recently, natural rubber has maintained a narrow - range shock pattern. Last week, the news of floods in the southern part of Thailand fermented, but the futures market did not respond accordingly. Instead, it oscillated downward under the influence of bearish news such as inventory accumulation, the addition of new delivery substitutes for NR, and the postponement of the EUDR confirmation. However, it was also supported by the downstream procurement enthusiasm and its relatively low valuation, and the decline was very limited. In the second half of the week, with the expectation of the flood receding in the production area and the gradual resumption of raw material procurement by processing plants, the futures market rebounded rapidly, but the upward pressure was still obvious. In the recent period, the futures market has basically maintained such a tug - of - war trend. Although the support below is strong and the long - term bullish consensus is high, it is also restricted by the current seasonal increase in output and the inventory - accumulation period. In the future, it is expected that there will be no strong unilateral driving force for the time being. Attention can be paid to the quantitative situation of domestic delivery products in mid - to - late December [12][14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamental variables are limited. It is expected that the rubber price will continue to maintain a wide - range shock with high elasticity, and it is still difficult to have a trend - like market unilaterally [14]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The driving force is not strong, and it maintains a follow - up shock [15]. - **Logic**: BR's price fell yesterday due to the weakening of natural rubber and its weak supply - demand situation. In the past two weeks, it has basically shown a shock - consolidation trend after rebounding from the listing low, but there is a lack of new marginal variables. It is waiting for new driving forces under the support of the natural rubber futures market and the good trading volume of butadiene. Although the short - term raw material pressure, especially the supply pressure shown by the butadiene port inventory, is relatively large, most of it has been reflected in the previous futures market's decline due to the expected increase in imports. So, for the time being, even if the raw material price has not improved and this price gives production enterprises a good processing profit, the futures market has not further traded this bearish situation. In the raw material market, the price of butadiene first fell and then rose last week, showing a slight shock overall. After the price was slightly pushed up in the early stage, there was a co - existence of the mentality of upstream enterprises to sell at high prices and downstream enterprises to buy at low prices, resulting in poor high - price transactions, and the market was under pressure to decline at the beginning of the week. However, the external market rose slightly during the week, and some domestic suppliers controlled the quantity and supported the price, driving the butadiene market to stop falling and oscillate in the middle of the week. Although there has been a continuous follow - up of rigid - demand buyers, the inventory has been at a high level recently, and the cautious supply - side expectation has also led to poor transactions of some slightly high - priced offers, and the market has maintained a small - range shock [15]. - **Outlook**: There is no upward driving force for the time being, and it is supported by natural rubber below. The futures market is expected to maintain a range - bound shock [15]. 3.7 Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The hedging pressure restricts the short - term upward height [15]. - **Logic**: In terms of supply, new cotton is continuously being listed, and the inspection progress is faster than in previous years. The output of new cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be between 7.3 - 7.5 million tons, an increase of 0.6 - 0.8 million tons year - on - year, and the supply is continuously increasing. In terms of demand, affected by seasonal factors, the number of new orders has slightly decreased month - on - month recently, but the overall level is still good, and there is no obvious bearish or negative feedback on the demand side. In terms of inventory, according to BCO data, currently in the peak listing period, the commercial inventory of cotton is continuously increasing, and the supply pressure is gradually increasing. However, the inventory as of mid - November has decreased year - on - year, indicating that the apparent demand for cotton is good, which supports the price. Recently, the 01 contract has continued to rebound, and the support below is obvious. However, as the price rises, the hedging pressure gradually increases, and the upward space is limited. Overall, the short - term rebound space of the 01 contract is limited; in the long term, the cotton price may maintain a shock - strong pattern, and the far - month contracts have long - position allocation value [16]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, it is in a range - bound shock; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern. It is advisable to buy on dips [16]. 3.8 Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sugar price is in a low - level shock [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - and medium - term, the domestic and international sugar prices are expected to be in a weak shock. The core logic is that the global sugar market will have a loose supply in the 25/26 crushing season. Major producing countries such as Brazil, India, Thailand, and China are all expected to increase production. The prospect of supply surplus makes the long - term price of domestic and international sugar have a downward driving force, so the general direction of the sugar price is downward. In addition, StoneX expects that Brazil may further increase production in the 26/27 crushing season, making the long - term price outlook rather pessimistic. Currently, the Northern Hemisphere has entered the new - season sugar production. According to Pan - Sugar Technology Information, as of November 25, 20 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production, and 113 sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh, India, have started production, with a cumulative cane crushing of 1.03582 million tons. As the supply

Group 1 - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 0.67%, closing at 30.2902 points, with most of the day spent in a downward trend [1] - CBOT corn futures fell by 0.61%, settling at $4.45 per bushel [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 0.83%, closing at $5.3525 per bushel [1] - CBOT soybean futures declined by 1.23%, ending at $11.2725 per bushel, while soybean meal futures decreased by 1.66% [1] - CBOT lean hog futures fell by 0.83%, live cattle futures decreased by 0.87%, and feeder cattle futures dropped by 0.86% [1] Group 2 - Soybean oil futures increased by 0.52% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The egg near - month contract has fallen sharply, the cotton has continued to rise, and the palm oil has continued to rise. The soybean meal has oscillated and adjusted, the peanut has adjusted at a high level, the pig has fluctuated weakly, the jujube has run weakly at a low level, the sugar has rebounded after a decline, and the apple has run strongly [1] 3. Summary by Variety Eggs - The egg主力 2601 contract has fallen sharply due to high production capacity. The egg - laying hen inventory is high, with about 1.352 billion in - production egg - laying hens in November. The futures price has fallen after a high - level rebound. The strategy is to close long positions and go short lightly on rallies, with a resistance level of 3220 for the egg 2601 contract [2] Cotton - The cotton主力 2601 contract has continued to rise supported by strong demand. As of November 27, the national new cotton delivery rate is 98.5% (up 1 percentage point year - on - year), and the sales rate is 33.2% (up 18.9 percentage points year - on - year). The strategy is to go long on dips [3] Soybean Meal - The soybean meal主力 2601 contract has oscillated and declined slightly. High inventory restricts the rebound space, but rising import costs support the price. The strategy is short - term trading [5] Peanuts - The peanut主力 2601 contract has adjusted at a high level for technical correction. High - quality peanuts in the Northeast and low farmer selling sentiment support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [8] Pigs - The pig主力 2601 contract has fluctuated weakly. High inventory and large planned slaughter in November lead to abundant supply. The strategy is short - term trading [9][11] Palm Oil - The Dalian palm oil主力 2601 contract has continued to rise. Floods in Southeast Asia and the seasonal production - reduction season support the price. The strategy is to go long lightly [12] Jujubes - The jujube主力 2601 contract has run weakly at a low level. The supply is abundant with high inventory. The strategy is short - term trading [14] Sugar - The Zhengzhou sugar主力 2601 contract has rebounded after a decline. Increased supply from new sugar mills is offset by high production costs and expected better consumption. The strategy is short - term long - biased trading [16] Apples - The apple主力 2601 contract has run strongly. Low inventory and expected better demand during holidays support the price. The strategy is to hold long positions [20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international soybean market supply and demand are relatively loose, with limited upward space for the soybean price. The domestic soybean meal market is also in a state of loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by supply pressure and relevant rumors, and its price is expected to be under pressure [4][7]. - The monthly spread of soybean meal and rapeseed meal shows a downward trend, and it is expected that there will still be pressure in the future [3][7]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On December 1, 2025, the domestic soybean meal futures prices slightly declined, and the rapeseed meal futures prices generally fell. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions changed to varying degrees. The soybean - rapeseed meal spread increased, and the monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed a downward trend [3]. - **Market Trends**: After the opening of the US soybean market, the market showed a volatile trend, and the domestic soybean meal market slightly declined. The rapeseed meal market generally declined, and the market was worried about supply pressure [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The monthly supply - demand report of US soybeans is generally bullish, but the market has fully reflected the bullish factors, and the upward space is limited. The sowing progress of new - crop soybeans in Brazil is fast, and it is expected to be a bumper harvest, which will put pressure on the price in the medium - term. The old - crop soybeans in Brazil and Argentina have good export and crushing performance, but the future export growth space may be limited [4]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic soybean meal market supply and demand are relatively loose, with high inventory. The demand for rapeseed meal is weakening, and the supply pressure still exists [5]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The macro - situation is generally stable. The resumption of the soybean export qualification of three US companies to China has improved the export prospects of US soybeans, but the future import volume is still uncertain [6]. 3.4 Logic Analysis - The US soybean market is mainly in a volatile state, and the price change is expected to be limited. The short - term dry weather in Brazil supports the market. The domestic soybean meal market is under pressure due to loose supply and demand, and there is still price pressure in the medium and long - term. Rapeseed meal is affected by rumors and supply pressure, and its price is expected to be under pressure. The monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to continue to decline [7]. 3.5 Trading Strategies - **Single - side Trading**: Continue to lay out a small number of long positions. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Sell a wide - straddle strategy [8].

Z0018389 研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 1 日 | 研究员：刘大勇 | | --- | 期货从业证号： F03107370 联系方式： :liudayong_qh@chinastck .c om.cn 投资咨询证号： | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 8048 | -40 | -0.50% | 18,152 | -34.22% | 24,151 | 7.38% | | PK510 | 8238 | -14 | -0.17% | 65 | 1.56% | 675 | -1.75% | | PK601 | 8152 | -46 | -0.56% | 83,345 | -31.47% | 123,473 | -4.34% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The global sugar supply has shifted from shortage to surplus, putting downward pressure on raw sugar prices. The domestic new - crop supply pressure has increased year - on - year, and it is expected that Zhengzhou sugar will face upward pressure and mainly follow the trend of raw sugar [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Domestic Sugar Spot Market - In Nanning Warehouse, Guangxi, the price on 2025/11/28 was 5615, with an unchanged value, a 2529 basis, a 215 basis against 2601, and a 2532 change in basis [4] - In Rizhao, Shandong, the price was 0, with a - 5800 change, a 100 basis, a - 5500 basis against 2601, and a - 5797 change in basis [4] Domestic Sugar Futures Market - The price of SR01 was 5400, with a - 3 change, and the spread between SR01 and SR05 was 73, with a - 5 change [4] - The price of SR05 was 5327, with a 2 change [4] International Market Exchange Rates - The exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar was 7.1002, with a 0.0065 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Brazilian real against RMB was 1.2818, with a 0.0212 change [4] - The exchange rate of the Indian rupee against RMB was 0.084, with a - 0.0004 change [4] International Commodity Futures Market - The price of ICE raw sugar主力 was 15.21, with a 0.09 change [4] - The price of London white sugar主力 was 573, with a 3 change [4] - The price of Brent crude oil主力 was 62.32, with a - 0.6 change [4]