提起上海、深圳，很多人的第一反应还是：机会多、工资高、人来人往的超级大城市。尤其是对于刚毕 业、想闯一闯的年轻人来说，"去上海""去深圳"一度就是"搏一把"的代名词。 但最近这几年，很多数据、很多身边人的选择，正在悄悄变。 有人说，上海、深圳正在渐渐出现4个"现象"，而且已经不是局部个例，而是一种有点蔓延的趋势。当 然，这里强调的是"预测"和"苗头"，不是什么铁板钉钉的结局，但确实值得每一个关心这两座城市的人 想一想。 第一个现象：不婚不育的人越来越多（但这几年也有反弹） 初婚年龄不断推迟，上海公布的初婚平均年龄接近30岁，深圳也差不多是"奔三"才成家，已经是很多人 默认的"常态"。 有意思的是，2025年的数据给了一点"反直觉"的惊喜： 上海2025年结婚登记12.51万对，比2024年涨了38.7%；深圳11.89万对，涨了28.54%，都是近几年新 高。 不婚不育，不是上海、深圳特有的问题，是全国都在面对的趋势。 数据说话：全国的结婚率，从2015年的大概9‰一路掉到2024年的4.3‰；常住人口的出生率，也从2015 年的11.99‰降到6.77‰，整体是在往下走的。 放在上海、深圳这样的城市里，这种 ...

2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

Group 1 - The average salary increase for companies in 2026 is expected to slightly decrease to 4.0%, with the high-tech industry leading at 4.9% [1] - In 2025, 42.8% of companies implemented salary adjustments, down from 44.8% in 2024, with an overall salary increase of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from 2024 [1] - The demand for AI talent is rising, with median monthly salaries for algorithm engineers nearing 25,000 yuan, and salaries for deep learning and natural language processing engineers also increasing [1][2] Group 2 - Salary increases for multi-modal algorithm engineers, autonomous driving algorithm engineers, machine learning engineers, and recommendation algorithm engineers exceed 23,000 yuan per month [2] - The pharmaceutical and healthcare industry shows a notable salary increase of 4.4%, while the finance and real estate sectors lag behind at 3.5% and 2.9%, respectively [2] - Salary increases for technical research and skilled professionals reach 5.3%, indicating that core talent driving innovation remains a priority for companies [2]

Core Viewpoint - UBS's report indicates that Hong Kong residents exhibit a more cautious sentiment regarding investment and consumption intentions than expected, with a decrease in the number of respondents holding a positive outlook on the economic prospects for the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Economic Sentiment - Respondents' financial situations have remained stable over the past 12 months, but their positive outlook on Hong Kong's economic prospects has diminished, which has suppressed consumption intentions [1] - The most concerning issues for respondents include rising living costs and job security [1] Group 2: Investment Outlook - Investment intentions have remained relatively stable, supported by the positive momentum in Hong Kong's financial sector, which is expected to bolster overall economic and labor demand [1] - The robust performance of Hong Kong and A-shares is anticipated to create a positive wealth effect, suggesting that resident confidence may improve by 2026 [1] Group 3: Sector Recommendations - UBS maintains a positive outlook on the real estate and financial sectors, removing Henderson Land Development (00012) from its preferred stock list and replacing it with Sino Land Company (00083) due to higher dividend visibility [1] - Other stocks included in the preferred list are AIA Group (01299), Swire Properties (01972), Galaxy Entertainment (00027), and Wynn Macau (01128) [1]

Index Trends - On January 26, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.09% to close at 4132.61 points, with a trading volume of 1.45186 trillion yuan. The Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.85% to close at 14316.64 points, with a trading volume of 1.796343 trillion yuan [1]. - The CSI 1000 Index fell 1.24% with a trading volume of 703.182 billion yuan, opening at 8513.22, closing at 8365.43, with a high of 8530.42 and a low of 8302.1 [1]. - The CSI 500 Index fell 0.97% with a trading volume of 692.105 billion yuan, opening at 8624.89, closing at 8506.69, with a high of 8671.35 and a low of 8453.48 [1]. - The SSE 300 Index rose 0.1% with a trading volume of 796.833 billion yuan, opening at 4715.38, closing at 4706.96, with a high of 4754.18 and a low of 4693.16 [1]. - The SSE 50 Index rose 0.57% with a trading volume of 239.456 billion yuan, opening at 3042.37, closing at 3049.59, with a high of 3088.57 and a low of 3039.64 [1]. Impact of Sector Movements on Indexes - The CSI 1000 fell 105.31 points from the previous close. Sectors such as non - ferrous metals had a significant upward pull on the index, while sectors like computer, machinery, and electronics had a significant downward pull [3]. - The CSI 500 fell 83.48 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals had an upward pull, while sectors like automotive, defense, and electronics had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 300 rose 4.46 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and petroleum and petrochemicals had an upward pull, while defense, power equipment, and electronics had a downward pull [3]. - The SSE 50 rose 17.4 points from the previous close. Non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and petroleum and petrochemicals had an upward pull, while electronics had a downward pull [3]. Futures Basis and Annualized Opening Costs - For IM contracts, IM00 had an average daily basis of - 16.41, IM01 of - 48.09, IM02 of - 186.11, and IM03 of - 336.24 [13]. - For IC contracts, IC00 had an average daily basis of - 0.12, IC01 of - 8.26, IC02 of - 73.8, and IC03 of - 168.27 [13]. - For IF contracts, IF00 had an average daily basis of 8.25, IF01 of 14.27, IF02 of - 1.59, and IF03 of - 46.65 [13]. - For IH contracts, IH00 had an average daily basis of 4.7, IH01 of 8.46, IH02 of 9.64, and IH03 of - 21.22 [13].

编者荐语： 转载自申万宏源证券上海分公司，仅供参考。市场两级分化，对于蓝筹股可以跟随汇金的步伐；对于中小创，则可以设置好止损线后，顺势而为。 以下文章来源于申万宏源证券上海分公司 ，作者司伟杰 申万宏源证券上海分公司 . 申万宏源证券上海分公司官微，能为您提供账户开立、软件下载、研究所及投顾资讯等综合服务，为您的财富保驾护航。 摘要： 市场两级分化，对于蓝筹股可以跟随汇金的步伐；对于中小创，则可以设置好止损线后，顺势而为。 市场复盘： 本周市场呈现冰火两重天的境遇，大盘蓝筹向下寻底，小盘股迎风起舞。从指数层面来看，进入 2026 年以来，上证 50 近三周表现为 3.40% ， -1.74% 与 -1.54% ，中证 500 表现为 7.92% ， 2.18% 与 4.34% ，差额越拉越大，目前剪刀差已经超过 15% 。一边是商业航天、 AI 应用、数据中心、电池能源的不 断有消息催化，另一面是消费、红利、金融的控温和卖出。市场氛围呈现明显的两级分化。 但需要提醒的是，这次两融保证金的修改，仅仅是对 2023 年 8 月政策的"恢复常态化"，当时沪指还在 3000 点附近盘桓，放松比例是为了盘活市场，而现 ...

Group 1 - The North Exchange's new share subscription has frozen 1.0588 trillion yuan, setting a record, attracting significant cash due to its cash subscription model, which differs from the lottery-based model of the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges [3] - The recent volatility in precious metals, with gold briefly rising to $5,110 before falling below $5,000 and silver experiencing a 14% surge followed by a decline, is seen as normal short-term fluctuation, with long-term trends remaining intact [4] - The U.S. government's investment of $1.6 billion in domestic rare earth companies, acquiring a 10% stake, highlights the strategic value of rare earths, reinforcing the importance of companies like China Rare Earth and Northern Rare Earth in the global market [4] Group 2 - The recent surge in active equity funds, with a notable 7 billion yuan in new subscriptions, indicates a shift in market sentiment, suggesting renewed confidence in fund managers' stock-picking abilities [5] - The acquisition of overseas gold assets by Zijin Mining for 28 billion yuan signals a bullish outlook on gold prices, reflecting confidence in the long-term value of the gold sector [6] - The focus on "resource products + high technology" as key investment themes suggests that investors should concentrate on sectors like rare earths and humanoid robotics for future opportunities [6]

Group 1 - The core idea of the article is the promotion of "Quality Jiangsu" to enhance high-quality development, improve living standards, and achieve efficient governance through various initiatives led by the Jiangsu Provincial Government [1] - Jiangsu's market supervision department has guided 457,000 units to establish product quality safety archives, maintaining a good quality safety situation over the past three years [2] - The introduction of the "Su Zhi Dai" quality financial product in 2022 has supported over 20,000 enterprises, with a total financing exceeding 200 billion yuan, making it the largest credit scale in the country [2] Group 2 - A total of 1,147 enterprises have had 1,165 products (services) certified as "Jiangsu Quality," with a focus on brand protection through a collaborative mechanism that has resolved 36 cases and recovered over 38 million yuan for enterprises [3] - Jiangsu is enhancing its quality infrastructure across various sectors, integrating quality elements into the entire industrial chain, and has established 58 quality innovation alliances involving leading enterprises and technical institutions [4] - The province is actively developing future industry standards and has completed the standardization work for six future industries, including artificial intelligence and integrated circuits [5][6] Group 3 - Jiangsu has issued deep inspection reports for 27,000 elevators and has updated over 5,000 old residential elevators, enhancing safety through smart regulation and innovative maintenance models [7] - The province has implemented measures to strengthen food safety regulation across the entire supply chain, addressing issues related to food sources, distribution, and new business models [7] - Consumers are advised to choose reputable online food vendors and to report any food safety issues or disputes through designated complaint channels [8]

一、市场: ●1月27日收盘：美股收高道指涨300点 市场等待苹果等重磅财报 北京时间1月27日凌晨，美股周一收高，道指、纳指、标普500指数均上涨。苹果等公司本周将公布财报，其股价普遍上扬。国际贸易局势方面，特朗普威胁 对加输美商品提高关税，引发市场担忧。投资者还关注华盛顿政局，临时拨款法案月底到期，政府可能停摆。受政治与财政风险推动，黄金价格创历史新 高。本周超90家标普500成分公司公布财报，将考验科技股韧性。此外，韩国存储巨头也将公布财报。美联储周三将宣布政策决议，市场关注降息线索。 ●1月27日美股成交额前20：微软发布AI芯片以减少对英伟达的依赖 周一美股成交额前20的部分股票有新动态。微软推出第二代AI芯片Maia 200，由台积电生产，旨在减少对英伟达依赖。英伟达收跌0.64%，还向CoreWeave 追加20亿美元投资。特斯拉收跌3.09%，欧盟对X平台展开调查。苹果收高2.97%，摩根大通上调其目标价。美光收跌2.64%，法巴银行上调其目标价。谷歌 A类股收高1.63%，Keybanc上调其目标股价。AMD收跌3.22%，瑞银上调其目标价。英特尔收跌5.72%，一季度营收预测低于预期。此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Ruyi (00136.HK) has entered into a subscription agreement with Deutsche Bank Hong Kong Branch to issue HKD 2.574 billion zero-coupon convertible bonds due in 2027, which will convert into approximately 990 million shares, representing about 5.89% of the existing issued share capital as of the announcement date [1]. Group 1 - The total principal amount of the bonds to be issued is HKD 2.574 billion [1]. - The net proceeds from the bond issuance are expected to be approximately HKD 2.548 billion after deducting fees, commissions, and other related expenses [1]. - The initial conversion price is set at HKD 2.6 per share [1]. Group 2 - The intended use of the net proceeds includes: - Approximately 23.27% for repaying group debt [1]. - Approximately 14.36% for part of the cost to acquire a 30% stake in Beijing Yonghang Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. - Approximately 20.02% for strategic investments and acquisitions to expand the group's business [1]. - Approximately 15.31% for operational needs of the group's gaming business [1]. - Approximately 27.04% for content production on the streaming platform [1].