Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" recommendation for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 6.19% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 7th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Energy metals and industrial metals led the gains with increases of 8.28% and 8.09% respectively, while precious metals saw a slight decline of -0.53% [2][14] - The price of cobalt has been on the rise due to supply constraints, particularly following the extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo [4][5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals index rose 6.19% from June 20 to July 4, 2025, with energy metals and industrial metals showing the highest gains [2][14] - Precious metals experienced a slight decline, while small metals and new metal materials saw positive growth [2][14] Precious Metals - As of July 4, COMEX gold closed at $3,336 per ounce, down 1.43% over the past two weeks, but up 24.89% year-to-date [21][22] - COMEX silver closed at $37.04 per ounce, up 3.03% over the past two weeks and 23.53% year-to-date [22][26] Industrial Metals - LME copper closed at $9,970.50 per ton, with a slight increase of 0.26% over the past two weeks and a year-to-date increase of 14.79% [30] - LME aluminum closed at $2,587 per ton, up 2.29% over the past two weeks [30][33] Small Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price was 173,000 CNY per ton, up 0.58% over the past two weeks [36] - LME tin price was $33,585 per ton, up 3.95% over the past two weeks [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 182.25 as of July 4, showing a slight increase of 0.04% over the past two weeks [45] - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and lanthanum oxide remained stable, while cerium oxide saw a significant year-to-date increase of 36.25% [45][46] Energy Metals - Electrolytic cobalt averaged 251,750 CNY per ton, up 7.36% over the past two weeks and 46.79% year-to-date [51] - Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,850 CNY per ton, up 2.41% over the past two weeks and 78.94% year-to-date [51][54]

Core Insights - The report indicates that cobalt production cuts are gradually being realized, leading to an expected increase in cobalt prices due to tightening supply conditions [1][6][98] - The report maintains a bullish stance on strategic metals, particularly recommending rare earths and antimony due to their rigid supply characteristics and potential for value reassessment [6][84] Industry Overview - The total market capitalization of the industry is approximately 32,393.83 billion yuan, with a circulating market value of about 30,354.97 billion yuan [2] - In May, the production of electric vehicles in China saw a significant year-on-year increase, with sales reaching 1.27 million units, marking a 35% growth [22][24] - The photovoltaic sector also experienced robust growth, with newly installed capacity reaching 197.85 GW in the first five months of 2025, a 150% increase year-on-year [19] Cobalt Market Analysis - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its export ban on cobalt for an additional three months, which is expected to further tighten supply and drive prices upward [6][98] - In June, the production of electrolytic cobalt was reported at 2,730 tons, a decrease of 22% month-on-month, indicating a tightening supply situation [6][106] - The price of standard-grade MB cobalt was reported at $15.78 per pound, down 0.79% from the previous period, while alloy-grade MB cobalt increased by 1.31% to $19.35 per pound [17][98] Rare Earth Market Insights - The report highlights that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with the domestic price of praseodymium-neodymium oxide at 446,000 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.22% increase [6][82] - The strategic value of rare earths is being reassessed due to export controls on medium and heavy rare earths, which are expected to lead to a more concentrated supply structure [84] Lithium Market Dynamics - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has shown signs of recovery, with a current price of 62,300 yuan per ton, up 2.05% [43][44] - Lithium hydroxide prices have slightly decreased by 0.74%, currently at 60,100 yuan per ton, while lithium concentrate prices increased by 3.80% to $653 per ton [44][70] Antimony and Other Metals - Antimony remains in a tight supply situation, with domestic antimony ingot prices at 185,500 yuan per ton, down 2.11% [6][8] - Tin prices are experiencing fluctuations, with SHFE tin prices at 267,300 yuan per ton, down 0.60%, while LME tin prices increased by 0.61% to $33,770 per ton [6][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the recent breakthrough of the Shanghai Composite Index above 3450 points has significantly boosted market sentiment and expanded the profit-making effect among investors [1][2] - Institutions believe that while short-term sentiment indicators are relatively high, the market may enter a consolidation phase after a round of valuation expansion. However, in the medium to long term, unexpected policy measures or breakthroughs in the technology sector could catalyze a strong upward trend [1][2] - The current market environment resembles that of late 2014, with investors accumulating profit-making effects in various sectors, which could lead to a sustained increase in risk appetite and a recovery in new product launches [2][3] Group 2 - Analysts suggest focusing on structural opportunities within the semi-annual report disclosures, as the A-share market typically revolves around these reports during July and August [4] - Investment recommendations include three main lines: industries with strong industrial trends such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, sectors driven by performance and valuation matching like communications and electronics, and thematic sectors related to "anti-involution" such as new energy [4] - The peak of earnings forecasts for listed companies is expected in mid-July, with both positive and pessimistic earnings expectations being key focus areas for the next investment phase [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights that antimony prices are under pressure due to demand, while tungsten prices remain high due to supply disruptions [3] - The rare earth market is experiencing price fluctuations, with some magnetic material manufacturers awaiting export approvals [5] - The molybdenum market is facing a contraction in supply alongside weak demand, leading to price adjustments [5] - The tungsten market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices stabilizing at high levels [5] - The tin market is experiencing a shortage of raw materials from Myanmar, resulting in a strong but volatile price trend [5] - Antimony prices are adjusting downward due to reduced smelting output, but long-term prospects remain positive [5] - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is accelerating commercialization, presenting significant opportunities for upstream materials [6][10] Summary by Sections 1. Rare Earths - Recent price changes include an increase of 0.45% for praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 446,000 CNY/ton and a 0.61% increase for dysprosium oxide to 1,640,000 CNY/ton [12][13] - The domestic market is affected by export restrictions and a tightening supply of low-cost ores, while demand remains weak [5] 2. Molybdenum - Molybdenum concentrate prices have decreased by 0.78% to 3,815 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron prices have fallen by 0.41% to 243,500 CNY/ton [20] - Supply contraction signals are emerging, but demand from downstream industries is weak [5] 3. Tungsten - Black tungsten concentrate prices have increased by 0.58% to 172,000 CNY/ton, while ammonium paratungstate prices rose by 0.40% to 253,000 CNY/ton [23] - The market is experiencing stable domestic demand, but profitability for downstream smelting enterprises is low [5] 4. Tin - SHFE tin prices have risen by 2.57% to 267,250 CNY/ton, and LME tin prices increased by 4.24% to 33,775 USD/ton [33] - The supply side is constrained due to low operating rates in refining enterprises, while demand remains focused on essential purchases [5] 5. Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 4.94% to 192,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices fell by 5.63% to 167,500 CNY/ton [46] - The market is facing tight domestic supply due to reduced smelting output, but long-term demand remains stable [5] 6. Nuclear Fusion New Materials - The controllable nuclear fusion industry is witnessing rapid commercialization, with significant opportunities for upstream materials [6][10] - Notable advancements include the achievement of high-temperature plasma operations and agreements for future power supply [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Weight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within ±10% of the market index over the next six months [57]. Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals industry has seen a 7.18% increase over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.92 percentage points, ranking third among 31 industries [3][12]. - The energy metals sector led the gains with a 9.83% increase, followed by industrial metals at 9.26%, while precious metals saw a decline of 1.09% [12][19]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for the rare earth industry, driven by recovering export demand and emerging applications in humanoid robotics [51]. Summary by Sections Market Review - As of July 3, 2025, the non-ferrous metals industry has increased by 21.14% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 20.30 percentage points, ranking first among 31 industries [12]. - The report notes that the industrial metals prices have rebounded due to improving global macro sentiment and dovish signals from the Federal Reserve [52][54]. Price Analysis - As of July 2, 2025, LME copper was priced at $10,010 per ton, aluminum at $2,614.50 per ton, and nickel at $15,340 per ton [24][54]. - Precious metals prices included COMEX gold at $3,368.70 per ounce and silver at $36.79 per ounce [36][50]. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce announced an acceleration in the review of export licenses for rare earths, indicating a commitment to maintaining global supply chain stability [51]. - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell stated that the timing of potential interest rate cuts remains uncertain, which may impact gold prices in the short term [50][43]. Company Announcements - Companies such as China Rare Earth (000831), Jinchuan Group (300748), and Xiamen Tungsten (600549) are highlighted for their strong performance and growth potential in the rare earth sector [51][55]. - Zijin Mining (601899) is noted for its significant resource reserves and recent acquisition activities, enhancing its market position [55].

Group 1: Core Insights - A historic metal bull market is driven by supply-demand imbalances, policy catalysts, and capital inflows, with the dollar index falling below 100 and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rising [1] - Copper prices have surged, with London copper exceeding $9,967 and Shanghai copper surpassing ¥80,820, due to a complete supply disruption and soaring demand from infrastructure and electric vehicle sectors [1] - Aluminum profits are robust, with operating rates at 97.65% and a projected supply bottleneck, as demand from solar and electric vehicle industries continues to rise [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The copper market is experiencing a significant supply crunch, with major mining companies reducing output and Chinese smelters preparing for production cuts, while demand from the State Grid and electric vehicle charging infrastructure is booming [1] - The aluminum sector is facing a supply constraint, with limited new capacity expected by 2025, yet demand remains strong, particularly from the photovoltaic and automotive sectors [3] - The small metals sector is witnessing explosive growth driven by policy changes, with tungsten prices soaring due to reduced export quotas and strong demand from military and nuclear fusion applications [5] Group 3: Gold Market Trends - Gold prices have surged by 29% in the first half of the year, with central banks globally increasing their gold reserves, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the gold market [6] - Major gold mining companies are seeing significant inflows, with institutional holdings rising sharply, reflecting increased investor confidence in gold as a safe haven [6] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Key moving averages, such as the 5-day and 20-day, are critical for investment decisions, with specific stocks like Northern Copper and Yun Aluminum being monitored closely for potential buy signals [7] - Investors are advised to remain calm during market fluctuations, as inventory levels for copper and aluminum are lower than in 2016, and policy support is strengthening [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, after a strong breakthrough, the stock index is more likely to strengthen and fluctuate under the drive of sentiment and liquidity. Attention should be paid to macro incremental information for guidance on the stock index direction. In the long - term, the Politburo meeting at the end of July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible further deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Overseas, the uncertainty of US tariff policies, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. - In the future, the central bank may continue to reasonably supplement liquidity through over - renewal of MLF or in combination with reverse repurchase tools in the second half of the year [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DRO01 closed at 1.51 with a 14.09bp increase, DR007 at 1.91 with a 20.92bp increase, GC001 at 2.14 with a 175.00bp decrease, GC007 at 1.69 with a 34.50bp decrease, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.34 with a 0.50bp decrease, 5 - year treasury at 1.49 with a 0.50bp increase, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.10bp increase, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.29 with a 3.00bp increase [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 3315 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 2205 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 1110 billion yuan. This week, 20275 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature. The central bank will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on the 25th, with 1820 billion yuan maturing, achieving a net injection of 1180 billion yuan for the fourth consecutive month. Combining with reverse repurchase operations, the net injection of medium - term liquidity is 3180 billion yuan [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.37% to 3936.1, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.16% to 2712, the CSI 500 rose 0.88% to 5915.4, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.26% to 6356.2. The trading volume of the two markets was 14869 billion yuan, a decrease of 542 billion yuan from last Friday. Industries such as aerospace, gaming, shipbuilding, photovoltaic equipment, medical services, electronic chemicals, jewelry, small metals, and communication equipment led the gains, while only the securities, banking, cement building materials, and airport sectors declined [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 rose 0.4%, IH当月 rose 0.3%, IC当月 rose 0.6%, and IM当月 rose 0.8%. The trading volume and positions of all four futures contracts decreased, with IF trading volume down 26.4%, IH trading volume down 31.3%, IC trading volume down 13.7%, and IM trading volume down 11.4%. IF positions decreased by 3.8%, IH positions by 9.1%, IC positions by 3.4%, and IM positions by 5.7% [5]. - **Premium and Discount**: IF premium/discount rates for the current, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 15.29%, 8.64%, 5.76%, and 4.34% respectively; IH are 14.20%, 6.73%, 3.82%, and 1.72% respectively; IC are 17.96%, 12.96%, 11.17%, and 9.52% respectively; IM are 23.35%, 16.93%, 14.72%, and 12.79% respectively [7].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend despite a recent 2.8% decline in domestic spot gold prices. The geopolitical instability and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to provide lasting support for gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with copper prices experiencing a 1.3% increase, while aluminum prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in copper exchange inventories has raised concerns about potential short squeezes, which may lead to increased price volatility [4]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have seen an upward trend, while tungsten prices remained stable. The recovery in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for tungsten in cutting and wear-resistant tools [4]. - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have risen. The demand for energy metals is being closely monitored for future growth [4]. - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE copper price is at 79,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.3%. LME copper price is at 10,051 USD/ton, with a 3.5% weekly increase [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased, while tungsten prices have remained stable [28]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have increased. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, and the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 5.11% during the reporting period [35]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights ongoing competition in the copper market, with significant pressure on buyers due to declining inventories [42].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to focus on structural opportunities as the mid-year reporting season approaches, with attention on sectors with strong performance and high safety margins, as well as policy-driven consumer sectors and core assets in innovative pharmaceuticals [1][5][8]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.73% and 5.69%, respectively [1]. Economic Indicators - In the first five months of the year, China's industrial enterprises reported a total profit of 27,204.3 billion yuan, with gross profit increasing by 1.1% and operating revenue rising by 2.7% year-on-year, indicating ongoing industrial economic transformation [2]. Fundraising Trends - As of June 24, 13 out of the 26 newly approved floating rate funds have been established, raising over 12.6 billion yuan, with several funds exceeding 1 billion yuan in fundraising [4]. Investment Insights from Institutions - CITIC Securities suggests that the mid-year reporting season will primarily present structural opportunities, with active funds shifting from pharmaceuticals and consumer sectors to technology and finance [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan emphasizes the importance of focusing on long-term positive factors, suggesting that the market may experience short-term fluctuations but will stabilize in the long run [7]. - China Galaxy Securities identifies three main investment lines: high safety margin assets, technology sectors, and policy-driven consumer sectors [8]. - HSBC Jintrust Fund expresses optimism for the second half of the year, particularly for cyclical sectors due to improved supply-demand dynamics [9]. - ICBC Credit Suisse Fund highlights the potential of core assets in innovative pharmaceuticals, anticipating significant developments in 2025 [10]. - Morgan Asset Management focuses on four key areas: AI, pharmaceuticals, consumer goods, and power batteries, indicating strong investment opportunities in these sectors [11].

Group 1 - Fengcai Technology is conducting an H-share issuance with a maximum price of 120.50 HKD per share, aiming to raise funds for its specialized chip business [1] - The global offering consists of 16.3 million shares, with 1.63 million shares available for public offering in Hong Kong [1] - Zijin Mining plans to acquire the Raygorodok gold mine project in Kazakhstan for 1.2 billion USD, enhancing its resource portfolio [1][2] Group 2 - Mindray Medical's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by up to 5 million shares, approximately 0.41% of the total share capital, due to personal funding needs [3] - Degute is planning to acquire control of Haowei Technology through a combination of cash and share issuance, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [4] - New Dairy's controlling shareholder intends to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital, also for funding purposes [5] Group 3 - Yueyang Xinchang has resumed production after completing maintenance on its main production facilities, positively impacting its operations [6] - Chengdu Xian Dao has terminated its major asset restructuring plan due to failure to reach agreement on key terms [7] - Maglev Technology's shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 3% of the total share capital for personal financial arrangements [9] Group 4 - Zhongyan Dadi announced a cash dividend of 2.82 CNY per 10 shares and a capital increase of 3.99 shares per 10 shares [10] - Yunda Co. plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.6 CNY per 10 shares, totaling approximately 47.22 million CNY [12] - Victory Co. intends to distribute a cash dividend of 0.42 CNY per 10 shares, amounting to around 36.06 million CNY [13] Group 5 - Shagang Group has invested 2.67 billion CNY in financial products while planning to use up to 8 billion CNY of idle funds for further investments [14] - Jiuyuan Yinhai's subsidiary won an 8.43 million CNY project contract, constituting a related party transaction [15] - China Railway Signal & Communication has announced the resignation of a board member due to personal reasons [16] Group 6 - China Rare Earth clarified that recent management changes have not affected its operations, ensuring stability in production [17] - Qixiang Tengda plans to conduct routine maintenance on its 60,000-ton acetone plant for 60 days to enhance operational safety [19] - ST King Kong's subsidiary signed a 399 million CNY contract for computing power services, indicating growth in its service offerings [20] Group 7 - Ziguang Guowei repurchased 775,500 shares for approximately 49.62 million CNY, reflecting confidence in its market position [22] - Qin Port's major shareholder plans to reduce its stake by up to 2% of the total share capital for development needs [22] - Longqi Technology has submitted an application for H-share issuance and listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, expanding its market presence [24]