Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various metals and minerals in the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors, including market reviews, important news, logical analyses, and trading strategies for each product. It takes into account factors such as tariffs, supply and demand, and policy changes to evaluate the market trends and potential investment opportunities and risks [3][7][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold closed down 0.36% at $3342.78/ounce, London silver down 0.72% at $38.11/ounce. Shanghai gold and silver futures also declined. The US dollar index was almost flat at 98.035, 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded to 4.426%, and the RMB/USD exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.1723 [3]. - **Important News**: Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if no Ukraine - Russia conflict agreement is reached in 50 days. The EU plans to impose counter - tariffs on $72 billion of US goods. Fed officials' remarks and interest rate probability expectations were also reported [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: As the tariff negotiation deadline approaches, tariff games intensify. The Fed is in a wait - and - see mode. The market awaits US CPI data. Silver's spot supply is tight due to tax - increase expectations [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider holding long positions against the 5 - day moving average for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai copper 2508 contract fell 0.34% to 78020 yuan/ton, LME copper closed down 0.2% at $9643.5/ton. LME and Comex inventories increased [7]. - **Important News**: Multiple tariff - related events were reported. China's June copper imports showed mixed trends. SMM national copper inventory increased [8][9]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1st. The US' siphoning of global refined copper is nearing an end. LME inventory bottomed out. The price difference structure will converge, and the market is mainly for rigid demand [10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [10]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Night - session alumina 2509 contract rose 37 yuan to 3145 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [12]. - **Important News**: Central Finance Commission meeting emphasized market construction. There were domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, and production and inventory data [12][14]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production is increasing, but spot circulation is limited. The supply - demand pattern will gradually shift to a surplus, but warehouse receipt demand may support the market [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Expect alumina prices to fluctuate strongly for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: Night - session Shanghai aluminum 2508 contract fell 30 yuan/ton to 20405 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [18][21]. - **Important News**: Aluminum ingot inventory increased. There were data on photovoltaic installation, aluminum exports, and financial and trade news [21][22]. - **Trading Logic**: Tariff negotiations are ongoing. Aluminum ingot inventory may have a narrow - range change. The decline in photovoltaic component production may be mitigated [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices may be under pressure in the short - term but not overly pessimistic for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 19800 yuan/ton. Spot prices in different regions declined [28]. - **Important News**: There were data on production, cost, profit, and inventory of cast aluminum alloy [28][29]. - **Trading Logic**: Alloy ingot enterprises face raw material shortages, and downstream demand is weak. Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum alloy futures prices will follow aluminum prices under pressure. Consider arbitrage within a certain price difference range; wait and see for options [30]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 0.2% to $2732.5/ton, Shanghai zinc 2508 fell 0.27% to 22145 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [32]. - **Important News**: Domestic and LME zinc inventories increased [32]. - **Logical Analysis**: Zinc supply is increasing, demand is in the off - season, and prices may be under pressure [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead fell 0.98% to $2017/ton, Shanghai lead 2508 fell 0.2% to 17070 yuan/ton. Spot prices and trading were reported [36]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased, and the average operating rate of primary lead smelters decreased [36]. - **Logical Analysis**: Recycled lead is in a loss, and the supply is hard to increase. Demand is improving marginally [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term lead prices may fluctuate at a high level. High - selling and low - buying in the range for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell 170 to $15065/ton, inventory increased. Shanghai nickel fell 1310 to 119460 yuan/ton. Spot premiums changed [42]. - **Important News**: A Canadian nickel company's exploration results and battery production data were reported [42]. - **Logical Analysis**: The market is worried about US tariffs. Refined nickel has weak supply and demand in the off - season, and prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided in the given text. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2508 contract rose 10 to 12695 yuan/ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were reported [44]. - **Important News**: A stainless steel factory's high - nickel pig iron transaction and a company's production achievement were reported [48]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless steel demand is not optimistic, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage [48]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures and spot prices rose [50]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on drones and polysilicon [50]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Industrial silicon production will decrease in July. Supply and demand may be balanced. Inventory has shifted, and the market is optimistic [50][52]. - **Strategy**: Short - term strength for single - side trading; stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy [53]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: Polysilicon futures rose 0.81% to 41765 yuan/ton. Spot prices declined [55]. - **Important News**: Silicon wafer and battery prices and US investigations were reported [55]. - **Comprehensive Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be passed on to downstream. Futures prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Reduce long positions [56][58]. - **Strategy**: Reduce long positions and participate in short - term trading. Stop profit for the long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon strategy; wait and see for options [59]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 2380 to 66480 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A company obtained a mining license, and a cooperation agreement was signed [61][63]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns led to price increases. Demand is not weak in the off - season. Prices may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term and decline in the long - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Avoid risks in the short - term and wait for short - selling opportunities; wait and see for arbitrage; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily as the short - term integer mark will be an important resistance level [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,785 yuan/ton, the main contract position is 396,653 lots (down 6,237 lots), the net position of the top 20 is - 67,783 lots, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,258 lots, and the price difference between industrial silicon in August - September is 5 [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,150 yuan/ton, the average price of 421 silicon is 9,500 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), the Si main contract basis is 365 yuan/ton, and the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, the weekly social inventory is 552,000 tons (up 10,000 tons), the monthly import volume is 71.51 tons, and the monthly export volume is 52,919.65 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, the daily average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg, the daily market price of overseas photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kg, the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41% (up 1.17%), the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.645 million tons (down 337,930 tons), and the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons [3]. 3.6 Industry News - There is a rumor that Xinjiang will cancel all electricity price subsidies, which will increase the cost of industrial silicon by 300 - 700 yuan/ton. Large manufacturers have temporarily cancelled their restart plans [3]. - The domestic industrial silicon spot market is stable, with the mainstream price of 421 in the domestic market ranging from 8,450 to 9,900 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market was positively affected by news disturbances. Factors such as the possible cancellation of preferential electricity prices and rumors of delayed resumption of production by large factories led to a significant rebound in the industrial silicon futures market. Short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see, with previous short positions needing protection [1][3]. - There have been many policy disturbances in the photovoltaic industry recently, including anti - involution, storage mergers and acquisitions, and self - disciplined production cuts. Policy implementation and the downward transmission of spot prices need to be continuously monitored. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions in polysilicon at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2509 opened at 8460 yuan/ton and closed at 8695 yuan/ton, a change of 275 yuan/ton (3.27%) from the previous day's settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 402,890 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on July 13 was 50,090 lots, a change of - 139 lots from the previous day [2]. - The spot price of industrial silicon increased. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8900 - 9100 yuan/ton (up 150 yuan/ton); 421 silicon was 9200 - 9400 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan/ton); Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8400 - 8500 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton); 99 silicon was 8300 - 8400 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan/ton) [2]. - The price of organic silicon DMC was 10,600 - 11,000 yuan/ton (unchanged). Due to the continuous rise of the industrial silicon market, the cost of DMC was pushed up, and its price jumped by about 350 yuan/ton, which in turn drove up the price of 107 glue [2]. - **Strategy** - The short - term policy and capital sentiment have a large impact. It is recommended to wait and see, and previous short positions need to be protected [3]. Polysilicon - **Market Analysis** - On July 14, 2025, the main contract 2508 of polysilicon futures fluctuated widely, opening at 41,290 yuan/ton and closing at 41,765 yuan/ton, a change of 0.81% from the previous day's closing price. The position of the main contract was 78,328 lots (previous day: 85,925 lots), and the trading volume on the day was 470,329 lots [5]. - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feedstock was 32.00 - 33.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 28.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 30.00 - 31.00 yuan/kg; N - type material was 42.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg (down 0.50 yuan/kg); N - type granular silicon was 41.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [5]. - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased slightly, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 276,000 tons, a change of 1.40% from the previous period; the silicon wafer inventory was 18.13GW, a change of - 5.70% from the previous period. The weekly polysilicon output was 22,800 tons, a change of - 5.00% from the previous period; the silicon wafer output was 11.50GW, a change of - 3.37% from the previous period [5][6]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly stable, with only minor changes in a few varieties [6]. - After domestic photovoltaic silicon wafer enterprises generally raised their quotes on the afternoon of July 9, the domestic silicon wafer market has fully carried out transactions at the new prices. Battery factories have started to purchase in large quantities. Currently, silicon material transactions have not fully started, with only a few P - type orders [7]. - **Strategy** - Short - term: pay attention to risks and be cautiously bullish. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to build long positions at low prices [8].

Group 1: Industrial Silicon Market Dynamics - Recent rebound in industrial silicon futures prices, with the main contract rising by 3.27% and trading volume increasing significantly to 1.47 million lots [1] - The rebound is attributed to government efforts to regulate low-price competition in the photovoltaic industry, leading to an orderly exit of outdated capacity and focusing on high-quality development [1] - Leading companies in the industrial silicon sector are expected to benefit from the anticipated profit recovery across the industry chain [1] Group 2: Photovoltaic Industry Trends - The photovoltaic industry has shown signs of self-discipline, with industrial silicon experiencing a "V-shaped" rebound after a challenging period [2] - Demand for industrial silicon is currently weak, influenced by low operating rates in the polysilicon sector and a cooling of terminal demand [2] - Polysilicon prices have surged significantly, with a 39% increase from a low of 30,400 yuan/ton to a peak of 42,265 yuan/ton within 14 trading days [2] Group 3: Company Performance and Outlook - Hoshine Silicon Industry reported a projected net loss of 300 million to 400 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a significant quarterly loss due to declining sales prices and operational disruptions [3] - The company aims to maintain stable operations and improve cost management to navigate the industry's downturn, focusing on optimizing production processes and enhancing efficiency [4] - Hoshine's organic silicon business provides a stable cash flow, enhancing its resilience compared to peers focused solely on the photovoltaic sector [4] Group 4: Organic Silicon Industry Insights - The organic silicon sector is witnessing a steady growth in demand driven by emerging fields such as electronics and manufacturing, while new capacity additions are nearing completion [5] - The closure of Dow's European production capacity may accelerate the global supply-demand recovery in the organic silicon industry, benefiting domestic companies like Hoshine [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of industrial silicon showed a strong upward trend this week, with the futures main contract rebounding. The supply of industrial silicon is stable in the north and increasing in the south, with overall output slightly increasing, and the demand for polysilicon has a slight increase. The market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation, and the actual spot trading situation needs further attention [6]. - The spot price of polysilicon jumped significantly this week, and the futures main contract also rebounded strongly. Although there is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, downstream sectors have started to raise prices. The polysilicon market is expected to be oscillating and strengthening in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8350 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 8415 yuan/ton [6][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's large - scale factories' operations are basically stable, with no news of复产 for previously shut - down production capacity and a slight decline in output. Yunnan is releasing output from复产 silicon enterprises during the wet season, and some silicon furnaces still have plans for复产 [6]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of polysilicon is basically stable, and the output in July is expected to increase slightly. The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has a slight fluctuation, and the weekly output has a small increase. The operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry is expected to be weak, and the export volume in May decreased compared with the previous month and the same period last year [6]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of industrial silicon remained stable, with the prices of silicon coal and silicon stone weakly stable [6]. - **Inventory**: As of July 10, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in the country was 55.1 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week [6]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has slightly shrunk. As of July 11, 2025, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 1050 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton [12][14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of N - type dense material was 46000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 11000 yuan/ton; the futures main contract closed at 41330 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The market's expectation of supply - side reform and industry restructuring in the polysilicon industry has increased. The output in June was about 10.2 tons, and the output in July is expected to be between 10.3 - 11 tons [7]. - **Demand**: There is no sign of large - scale recovery in terminal demand, but downstream sectors have started to raise prices. In May, the import volume decreased compared with the previous month, and the export volume increased [7]. - **Cost**: This week, the cost of polysilicon was supported, with the cost of raw material industrial silicon rebounding [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory pressure of polysilicon remains high, with the total market inventory exceeding 3 months [7]. - **Price Difference**: The price difference between the benchmark delivery product and the alternative delivery product has widened significantly. As of July 11, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 13000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10000 yuan/ton [21][23]. Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafer**: As of July 11, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 0.94, 0.94, 1.15, and 1.35 yuan/piece respectively, with week - on - week increases. There is currently no market transaction [40]. - **Battery Chip**: As of July 11, 2025, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.24, 0.24, 0.253, and 0.253 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. Many battery chip manufacturers have suspended or delayed shipments [44]. - **Component**: As of July 11, 2025, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon, and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.665, 0.675, 0.665, and 0.675 yuan/watt respectively, with week - on - week increases. The price adjustment is cautious due to strong terminal customer wait - and - see sentiment [48]. Other Related Industries - **Organic Silicon**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton. The production profit margin has rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate has increased [51][53]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 19700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is weak [55][57]. Cost - related - **Silicon Coal and Silicon Stone**: As of July 11, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 895 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the delivered price of Hubei silicon stone was 325 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton [25][27]. - **Petroleum Coke and Electricity Price**: As of July 11, 2025, the price of Saudi petroleum coke at Shandong ports was 1125 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from last week. The electricity prices in Sichuan and Yunnan have decreased [31][33]. - **Wood Chips, Charcoal, and Graphite Electrodes**: As of July 11, 2025, the prices of Yunnan wood chips, Yunnan charcoal, and Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes remained unchanged from last week [35][37].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 8,695 yuan/ton, up 280 yuan; the position of the main contract is 402,890 lots, up 35,080 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 76,228 lots, up 2,828 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 50,229 lots, down 315 lots; the price difference between August and September industrial silicon is 5 yuan, up 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 9,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon is 9,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan; the DMC spot price is 10,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,720 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 305,200 tons, up 5,500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.94 US dollars/kilogram, up 0.72 US dollars; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 24,179.3 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 69.41%, up 1.17 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 117,000 tons, up 16,450 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 7,624.27 tons, down 337.93 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - There are frequent rumors in the industrial silicon and polysilicon markets, but they are not confirmed and need further tracking. Trump plans to impose a 50% tariff on imported copper starting August 1st [2]. 3.7 Supply - side Analysis - The spot price of industrial silicon has risen significantly this period. The fertilizer subsidy policy in the Ili region of the Northwest remains stable. Large - scale production enterprises have no news of production cuts or shutdowns. The production cost in the Southwest region has decreased. The resumption of production in Baoshan is positive, but the scale in Nujiang and Dehong is lower than expected. Sichuan manufacturers mainly focus on ensuring supply and relying on self - owned power plants, with no significant increase in the overall operating rate [2]. 3.8 Demand - side Analysis - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly concentrated in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, the spot price has increased, and production profits have recovered, supporting the demand for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, mainstream enterprises have cut production, and downstream photovoltaic demand has declined, reducing the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy field, enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing and prices flat, and it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term cautious, medium - term positive [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term and medium - term positive [3] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term range 77600 - 79100, medium - term range 60000 - 90000 [5] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term range 8300 - 8500, medium - term low - level operation in range 7500 - 8800 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term and medium - term positive [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term range 6.30 - 6.50 million, medium - term price decline with range 5.6 - 6.8 million [14] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Overseas tariff uncertainty has a reduced marginal impact; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite is rising, but short - term profit - taking pressure should be noted [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bank - to - bank liquidity is slightly tightened, and there are rumors in the market. The domestic fundamentals are weak, strengthening the policy easing expectation [4] - **Copper**: US tariff hikes, supply increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes may affect price trends [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply and demand decline, high inventory, but polysilicon price increase boosts it [8][9] - **Polysilicon**: Supply decline, demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation drive price increase [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Spot price increase benefits futures, but high supply and inventory levels are negative factors [14] 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: IM2507 trading positions take profit, and allocation positions move to IM2509 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff uncertainty is reduced; policy promotes long - term capital entry; market risk appetite rises with 596 billion yuan net buying in 3 weeks and 9% financing ratio [1][2] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [4] - **Core Logic**: Bank - to - bank liquidity tightens slightly, rumors in the market, and weak domestic fundamentals strengthen policy easing expectation [4] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper** - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading approach [5] - **Core Logic**: US tariff hikes, Codelco's 9% production increase, demand - side cost pressure, and inventory changes [5][7] - **Industrial Silicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8] - **Core Logic**: 27.67% supply decline, 33.11% demand decline, high inventory, and polysilicon price increase [8][9] - **Polysilicon** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [10] - **Core Logic**: 33.11% supply decline, 19.06% demand increase, high inventory, and "capacity reduction" expectation [11][13] - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [14] - **Core Logic**: Spot price increase, 35% supply increase, and high inventory levels [14]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The spot price of industrial silicon increased, while the futures price decreased. The price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased slightly. Due to the supply - demand situation, the prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon may continue to be strong in the short - term, and short - term operations are recommended. For industrial silicon, the supply may be less than expected, and polysilicon demand may increase due to resumption of production. For polysilicon, the supply may increase slightly, and the demand is still weak, but the sentiment of price increase is strong [1]. Group 3: Summary of Specific Information by Category 1. Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.76% to 8,650 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.65% to 8,415 yuan/ton. The price of various types of industrial silicon in different regions also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Polysilicon: The prices of N - type dense material, polysilicon re - feedstock, polysilicon dense material, and polysilicon cauliflower material remained unchanged. The futures main contract closing price decreased by 0.04% to 41,330 yuan/ton [1]. - Other products: The price of DMC increased by 3.35% to 10,800 yuan/ton, and the prices of other products such as 107 glue and silicone oil remained unchanged. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also remained stable [1]. 2. Industry News - Inner Mongolia Siyuan Xinneng Electronic Materials Technology Co., Ltd. plans a nearly 3 - billion - yuan silicon - carbon anode project in three phases, with an expected annual sales of 4 - 6 billion yuan and tax payment of about 300 million yuan after full production [1]. - Some photovoltaic glass enterprises have cold - repair plans. There will be nearly 2,000 tons/day of production reduction in July and an additional 2,400 tons/day in August [1]. 3. Supply and Demand Analysis Industrial silicon - Supply: Northern large - scale factories have production reduction arrangements, no resumption of production news. Southwest production areas will enter the rainy season, and the power cost will decrease, but the resumption of production is slow. After supply increase and decrease offset, there may be a reduction [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain production reduction, some silicon material factories will resume production in July, bringing some demand increase; the organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak; silicon aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the overall downstream inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1]. Polysilicon - Supply: Silicon material enterprises maintain production reduction, but some new production capacity may be put into operation, and the output is expected to increase slightly but remain within 100,000 tons [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is weak, and the inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials have increased. Although the downstream silicon wafer prices have increased recently, the terminal market is still weak [1]. 4. Investment Strategies - Industrial silicon: The short - term may continue to be strongly sorted, and short - term operations are recommended. In the medium - and long - term, there is pressure on the upside [1]. - Polysilicon: The short - term price may continue to be strong, and price fluctuations may intensify. Short - term operations are recommended, and attention should be paid to actual start - up and supply - side reform implementation [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The production plan of large factories in Xinjiang will have a significant impact on the fundamentals of industrial silicon. The failure of large factories in Xinjiang to resume production as expected has led to a marginal improvement in the fundamentals of industrial silicon. For polysilicon, in response to the government's "anti - involution" policy, polysilicon enterprises have raised their offers, but the actual transactions are yet to be seen. The price increase of polysilicon depends on the implementation of production cuts and the price increase of downstream products [2][3] - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds and wait for right - hand signals. For polysilicon, although it is generally bullish, short - term callback risks should be noted, and attention can be paid to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [4][17] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2509 contract of industrial silicon increased by 435 yuan/ton to 8415 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygen - blowing 553 increased by 100 yuan/ton to 8850 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 increased by 250 yuan/ton to 8300 yuan/ton. The PS2508 contract of polysilicon increased by 5820 yuan/ton to 41330 yuan/ton. According to the Silicon Industry Association, the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material this week increased by 2400 yuan/ton to 37100 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Xinjiang Large Factories' Resumption of Production Falling Short of Expectations, and Attention to the Implementation of PV Anti - Involution Industrial Silicon - This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures rose significantly. The weekly output was 72,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.31%. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons month - on - month, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons month - on - month. If the large factory maintains 48 furnaces in operation, industrial silicon may have a monthly de - stocking of 60,000 tons. If it resumes full production at the eastern base, it may have a monthly inventory build - up of 30,000 tons. The market transaction price of 99 silicon powder rose to about 9000 - 9100 yuan/ton [12] Organic Silicon - This week, the price of organic silicon bottomed out and rebounded. The overall enterprise operating rate this week was 70.9%, the weekly output was 46,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.64%, and the inventory was 48,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41% [12][13] Polysilicon - This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures continued to rise sharply. The quoted price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material ranges from 43 to 49 yuan/kg, but there are no actual transactions yet. It is expected that the polysilicon production schedule in July will increase to 110,000 tons, and it will enter a monthly inventory build - up state. As of July 10, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 276,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.4 million tons [13] Silicon Wafers - This week, the quoted price of silicon wafers was significantly increased, but there were no market transactions yet. The production schedule in July is expected to be 52GW, a month - on - month decrease of more than 10%. As of July 10, the silicon wafer factory inventory was 18.13GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.09GW [14] Battery Cells - This week, the quoted price of battery cells was significantly increased. The production schedule of battery cells in July is expected to be 54GW, still in an oversupply state. As of July 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 12.86GW, a month - on - month increase of 1.33GW [15] Components - This week, the component price was stalemate. The 7 - month component production schedule is expected to be 45GW. The difficulty in component price increase lies in its lag and the preferential issues in downstream actual procurement [16] 3.3 Investment Recommendations Industrial Silicon - It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunities on rebounds of industrial silicon. Observing right - hand signals such as large factories' resumption of production and warehouse receipt registration may be safer [17] Polysilicon - Generally, a bullish view is taken on polysilicon, but short - term callback risks should be noted. It is recommended to pay attention to the 8 - 9 positive spread arbitrage opportunities [17] 3.4 Hot News Collation - From the settlement on July 14, 2025, the daily price limit of polysilicon futures contracts will be adjusted to 9%, the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the hedging trading margin standard will be adjusted to 10% [18] - Hongyuan Green Energy intends to participate in the pre - reorganization of Wuxi Suntech. Its subsidiary will cooperate with Wuxi Suntech for production and operation management [18] - Runyang's Yunnan base resumed full - load production in 10 days, breaking the industry record [18]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon rose 5.45% and polysilicon rose 16.39%. Both have shown signs of fatigue, and it is expected that they may start to correct next week. The correction range of polysilicon is expected to be smaller than that of industrial silicon [7]. - For industrial silicon, the overall demand from its three major downstream industries continues to slow down. For polysilicon, the demand side still faces significant pressure, and most manufacturers will start a new round of hedging [7]. - It is recommended that the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuate within the range of 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within the range of 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon rose 5.45% this week, driven by an anti - involution meeting. Polysilicon rose 16.39%, driven by the anti - involution in the photovoltaic industry. However, short - term polysilicon has entered an overheated state, and the market's upward momentum has gradually declined [7]. - **Market Outlook**: For industrial silicon, the supply in the northwest remains stable, and the production cost in the southwest has decreased. The overall demand from downstream industries has slowed down. For polysilicon, the supply has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened. It is expected that both may correct next week, with polysilicon's correction range being smaller [7]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The main contract of industrial silicon should fluctuate within 7600 - 8600, with a stop - loss range of 7400 - 8800. The main contract of polysilicon should fluctuate in the short term, within 37500 - 42500, with a stop - loss range of 36500 - 43000 [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: This week, the price of industrial silicon rose, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 8750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 335 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the futures price of polysilicon rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the spot price increased. As of July 11, 2025, the spot price was 46 yuan/kg, up 10 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was 4700 yuan/gram [17][19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Industrial Silicon Supply**: This week, the production and operating rate of industrial silicon increased. As of July 11, 2025, the national output was about 77,600 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 53.44% [21][22]. - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the electricity price was adjusted downwards. During the wet season, the overall cost continued to decline [25]. - **Inventory**: This week, the warehouse receipts of industrial silicon decreased, the social inventory increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. As of July 11, 2025, the number of warehouse receipts was 50,544 lots, a decrease of 1372 lots from last week, and the total social inventory was 551,000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons [30][34]. - **Downstream Organic Silicon**: The production and operating rate of organic silicon increased, the short - term profit was repaired, and the production continued. As of July 11, 2025, the weekly output was 44,800 tons, a decrease of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 69.41%, an increase of 1.17% [36][40]. - **Downstream Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, the inventory increased, and it was still in the stage of passive de - stocking. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will remain weak [48]. - **Silicon Wafer and Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and cells decreased, which dragged down the demand for polysilicon and industrial silicon [55]. - **Polysilicon Cost and Production**: This week, the cost of polysilicon remained flat, and it is expected that the production will gradually decline. In June 2025, the total output of polysilicon plants in China was 92,160 tons, a decrease of 3000 tons from the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 3.15% [62][64].