投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 IICEREK 航运衍生品数据日报 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 卢钉毅 数据来源：Clarksons、Wind 投资咨询号: Z0021177 从业资格号: F03101843 2026/1/29 | | 运价指数 | 上海出口集装箱运价 | 中国出口集装箱运价 | SCFI-美西 | SCFIS-美西 | SCFI-美东 | SCFI-西北欧 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 综合指数SCFI | 指数CCFI | | | | | | 集 | 现值 | 1458 | 1209 | 2084 | 1294 | 2896 | 1595 | | | 前值 | 1574 | 1210 | 2194 | 1305 | 3163 | 1676 | | 运 | 涨跌幅 | -7.39% | -0.09% | -5.01% | -0.84% | -8.44% | -4.83% | | # IE | | | | | | | | | | | SCFIS-西北欧 | SCFI-地中海 | | | ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 PA联盟价格逐步修正，主力合约短期走势预计震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基 上海 - 鹿特丹 WEEK6 报价 1295/2070 ， WEEK7 报价 1210/1920 ， WEEK8 报价 1200/1900 ， WEEK9 报价 1200/1900；HPL 2月上半月船期报价1235/2035，2月下半月船期报价1235/2035 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1400/2340，2月下半月船期价格1400/2340；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1420/2235，2月下半月船期报价1420/2235；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报价1433/2436，2月下半月船期 1433/2436. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1459/2493，2月下半月船期报价1459/2493；EMC2月上 半月船期报价1615/2430；OOCL 2月上半月船期价格1455/2430，2月下半月船期报价1480/2430. FICC日报 | 2026-01- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, the current situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, and the support for risk - assets from the domestic fundamentals is limited in the short - term. Overseas, the macro - environment is still favorable for the resilience of risk - assets, but policy uncertainty is increasing, leading to greater differentiation in asset pricing. In terms of asset allocation, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities, specifically the CSI 500 stock index futures; maintain a neutral stance on national bonds and standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures; standard - allocate long positions in precious metals; over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals; and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. - For different sectors, most varieties are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Financial Market Fluctuations - **Stock Index Futures**: On January 28, 2026, the CSI 300 futures price was 4,732.8, with a daily increase of 0.14%, a weekly increase of 0.5%, and a monthly increase of 2.89%. The Shanghai 50 futures price was 3,069.8, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly increase of 1.05%, and a monthly increase of 1.48%. The CSI 500 futures price was 8,622, with a daily increase of 0.62%, a weekly decrease of 0.42%, and a monthly increase of 17.1%. The CSI 1000 futures price was 8,377.8, with a daily increase of 0.1%, a weekly decrease of 1.63%, and a monthly increase of 12.66% [2]. - **National Bond Futures**: The 2 - year national bond futures price was 102.394, with a daily increase of 0.01%, a weekly decrease of 0.02%, and a monthly decrease of 0.06%. The 5 - year national bond futures price was 105.87, with a daily increase of 0.05%, a weekly decrease of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.1%. The 10 - year national bond futures price was 108.21, with a daily increase of 0.03%, a weekly increase of 0.01%, and a monthly increase of 0.32%. The 30 - year national bond futures price was 112.09, with a daily increase of 0.07%, a weekly decrease of 0.19%, and a monthly increase of 0.61% [2]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was 95.7725, with a daily decrease of 1.32%, a weekly decrease of 1.78%, and a monthly decrease of 2.54%. The US dollar central parity rate was 6.9545 pips, with a daily increase of 3, a weekly decrease of 87, and a monthly decrease of 345 [2]. 2. Fluctuations in Popular Industries - On January 28, 2026, among various industries, non - ferrous metals had the highest daily increase of 6.02%, with a weekly increase of 10.59% and a monthly increase of 31.19%. The defense and military industry had a daily decrease of 1.71%, a weekly decrease of 4.62%, and a monthly increase of 7.96%. The banking industry had a daily decrease of 0.63%, a weekly decrease of 0.33%, and a monthly decrease of 7.3% [5]. 3. Fluctuations in Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: On January 27, 2026, NYMEX WTI crude oil was priced at $62.57, with a daily increase of 3.2%, a weekly increase of 2.11%, and a monthly increase of 8.99%. ICE Brent crude oil was priced at $66.76, with a daily increase of 3.07%, a weekly increase of 2.02%, and a monthly increase of 9.6% [8]. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold was priced at $5,179.6, with a daily increase of 1.91%, a weekly increase of 3.94%, and a monthly increase of 19.56%. COMEX silver was priced at $112.345, with a daily decrease of 2.74%, a weekly increase of 8.8%, and a monthly increase of 58.28% [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper was priced at $13,006.5, with a daily decrease of 1.46%, a weekly decrease of 0.93%, and a monthly increase of 4.08%. LME aluminum was priced at $3,207, with a daily increase of 0.58%, a weekly increase of 1.06%, and a monthly increase of 7.01% [8]. 4. Macro Highlights - **Domestic Macro**: The current domestic macro - situation is a combination of "weak reality, stable policies, and strong expectations." The recovery of domestic demand is slow, price levels remain low, and credit repair mainly relies on the government and policy tools. The policy is in an observation and verification stage, and the improvement in physical work and demand is more likely to be concentrated in the first quarter. In the short - term, the direct support from domestic fundamentals for risk - assets is limited [14]. - **Overseas Macro**: Overseas, the demand is weakening marginally, inflation is falling slowly, and policy uncertainty is increasing. The US consumption has some resilience, but its internal driving force is weakening. The core inflation is cooling, but the decline is not smooth. The market's focus has shifted to the expectation of the Fed's leadership change, increasing policy uncertainty [14]. - **Large - scale Assets**: It is recommended to over - allocate long positions in domestic mid - cap style equities (CSI 500 stock index futures), standard - allocate long positions in 2 - year national bond futures, standard - allocate long positions in precious metals, over - allocate long positions in non - ferrous metals, and adopt a range - trading strategy for the black sector [14]. 5. Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to fluctuate upwards, stock index options are expected to fluctuate, and national bond futures are expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to fluctuate upwards, but short - term volatility risks should be noted [15]. - **Shipping Sector**: Container shipping on European routes is expected to fluctuate [15]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, coke, etc. are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward trend, such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. [15]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Most energy and chemical varieties are expected to fluctuate, and some agricultural products such as corn/starch, live pigs, etc. are expected to fluctuate downwards, while cotton is expected to fluctuate upwards [17]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to fluctuate, with some showing a volatile upward or downward trend [17].

南财智讯1月29日电，海峡股份在投资者关系活动中表示，海安线原则上不再新增航运企业，现有客滚 船舶实行"以新换旧"，通过大型化、高抗风等级、高车位/客位的新船更新投入及提升运转效率来扩大 运力，目前在建2艘客滚船；运输新能源的平板货船不受新增数量限制，2026年春运将新投入2艘平板货 船。 ...

证券代码：002320 证券简称：海峡股份 海南海峡航运股份有限公司 服务获取码头运营收入，同时借助西沙旅游航线开发特色产品提升整体收 益。 问：海安线目前如何调节运力？新增船舶投放是否有限制？ 答：海安线原则上不再新增航运企业，现有客滚船舶实行"以新换旧"， 通过大型化、高抗风等级、高车位/客位的新船更新投入及提升运转效率来 扩大运力，目前在建2艘客滚船；运输新能源的平板货船不受新增数量限制， 2026年春运将新投入2艘平板货船。 问：海南自贸港封关运作对海峡股份业务流程有哪些改变 答：进岛车辆及旅客流程没有变化。出岛方面，旅客凭身份证等有效 证件，通过智能闸机"刷脸/刷证"即可完成核验，无需额外审批。货车方面， 新海港和南港"二线口岸"(货运)集中查验场成为货车出岛的通道，实现安 检关口前置一站式联合查验流程，通过安检机、地磅称重、智能识别等设 备，实现"货物信息一次录入、全程共享"，从而提升查验效率，经过查验 的货车进入港区，之后流程一样。 问：公司通过什么方式应对自贸港封关运作带来的车客流量增长？ 答：公司可以通过增加平板驳船投入、新造客滚船舶来满足市场需求， 此外可以通过开辟新航线缓解海口至海安航线 ...

问：请公司结合封关后相关业务增长预测，2026年公司营收目标增 速？ 答：海南自贸港实施优惠的税收政策，包括企业所得税优惠等，直接 降低公司的运营成本，为公司发展提供良好的政策环境。海南封关运作后， 将实行"一线放开，二线管住"的政策，这意味着境内外货物进出海南将 更加自由便利；实施"非禁即入"原则，投资自由化，这将吸引更多的投 资者和合作伙伴进入海南市场，有利于公司车客流量的确定性增长。随着 海南省基础设施建设的完善，如环岛旅游公路的建成，也将大幅吸引自驾 人群，对公司的主营业务起到带动作用。公司营业收入预计将与海南地区 经济增速紧密相关，公司业绩受宏观经济状况、政策落地节奏及公司自身 运营效率等多重变量影响，提请投资者理性判断，注意投资风险。 问：公司琼州海峡客滚运输淡旺季情况？ 编号：20260128-1 | 投资者关系活动类别 | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 ☐ | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 媒体采访 ☐ ☐ | 业绩说明会 | | | 新闻发布会 ☐ ☐ | 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 ☐ | | | | ☐ 其他 中金资管 董俊业 | | | | 广发证券 陈宇、李然 ...

Core Viewpoint - Hainan is focusing on developing its marine economy as part of the national strategy to build a strong marine nation, aiming to create a new "Marine Hainan" through coordinated land and sea development [1][9]. Group 1: Marine Economic Development - The development of marine economy in Hainan is centered around enhancing productivity and creating new growth points through quality improvement, innovation, and originality in marine industries such as marine ranching, offshore wind power, and ship manufacturing [2][10]. - Hainan's marine industries are thriving, transforming natural resources into economic opportunities, such as converting wind energy into offshore green electricity and utilizing new aquaculture methods [3]. Group 2: Local Initiatives and Strategies - Wenchang City is leveraging its advantages to create a high-quality development zone for fisheries, focusing on innovation in aquaculture, economic development, and marine ecological protection [4]. - Yangpu Port has seen significant growth in ship registrations, increasing from 30 ships and 700,000 deadweight tons in 2019 to 380 ships and over 14 million deadweight tons by the end of 2025, indicating a strong future for the port as a regional international shipping hub [4]. Group 3: Technological Innovation - The shift from traditional marine practices to "smart ocean" approaches is essential for the development of the marine economy, with a focus on the integration of bionic intelligent robots in various marine applications to enhance operational efficiency and safety [7][10]. - Hainan is positioned as a natural testing ground for the research and application of marine bionic intelligent robots, which can be utilized in port infrastructure and aquaculture monitoring [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to recent geopolitical tensions, Maersk's stable February quotes, and potential cargo rush and price support in March, the market may be difficult to decline in the short - term. The current valuation is moderately high, and the upside potential depends on capital behavior. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rallies, with a focus on the far - month contract 2610, which is more affected by the off - season and policies. Caution should be exercised for the 2604 contract, unless there is significant premium in the market. Short - term attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and PA alliance quotes [3] - The export tax rebate adjustment policy is negative for contracts after April. However, the valuations of the 06 and 08 contracts are hard to determine, are currently within a reasonable range, and are greatly affected by geopolitical factors. Prudent operation is advised [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information - **Contract Prices and Changes**: EC2602 closed at 1719.0 with a 0.09% increase; EC2604 at 1229.0 with a 2.94% increase; EC2606 at 1493.2 with a 3.54% increase; EC2608 at 1560.8 with a 2.12% increase; EC2610 at 1135.1 with a 2.08% increase [2] - **Open Interest Changes**: The open interest of EC2602 decreased by 309 to 3186; EC2604 increased by 1499 to 40146; EC2606 increased by 1690 to 9602; EC2608 increased by 67 to 1549; EC2610 increased by 211 to 8722 [2] - **Month - Spread Changes**: The month - spread of EC2502 - 2604 was 490.0, a day - on - day decrease of 63.6 and a week - on - week decrease of 79.9; EC2504 - 2606 was - 264.2, a day - on - day decrease of 15.9 and a week - on - week decrease of 2.8 [2] Spot Market Information - **SCFIS and SCF Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) index on January 26, 2026, was 1859.31 points, a 4.86% decrease from the previous period. The SCF (European Line) was 1595 dollars/TEU on January 23, 2026, a 4.85% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week 5, the central quote was 2500 dollars, equivalent to 1750 points on the futures. In Week 6, the central quote was equivalent to 1580 points on the futures. MSK's February Week 7 - 9 quote was 1950 dollars, lower than market expectations [4] Related News - Hamas senior official Musa Abu Marzouk stated that Hamas has never agreed to hand over its weapons in any form, and any arrangement for Gaza must be reached through an agreement with Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has no right to boast about the release of Israeli hostages [5] - After the initial nuclear negotiations between the US and Iran failed to make progress, US President Trump is considering a new major strike against Iran. Options under consideration include air strikes on Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase chain has become a significant focus in the capital market, with notable price rises in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, building materials, and semiconductors [1] Group 1: Price Increase Trends - The richness of price increase signals this year is at a historically high level, with 321 tracked subcategories showing a significant proportion of price increases over the past three months, second only to the supply-side reform period in 2017 and the inflation surge in 2021 [4] - Recent price increases are primarily concentrated in non-ferrous metals, oil, chemicals, and storage, demonstrating deep transmission and linkage across the industrial chain [7] Group 2: Key Drivers of Price Increases - Geopolitical risk and concerns over US dollar credit are driving up prices of non-ferrous metals, including silver and gold, which are impacting the cost structure in semiconductor manufacturing and testing [8] - Supply-side disruptions and tightening geopolitical situations are pushing oil prices higher, leading to cost transmission to downstream chemical and building materials sectors [8] - Strong demand for AI is triggering a new wave of price increases in storage, with companies like Samsung and SK Hynix planning significant price hikes for LPDDR memory used in iPhones, while domestic semiconductor companies are also raising prices for their products [8] Group 3: Price Change Data - Notable price changes include: - Copper: 15.4% increase over the past week, 44.4% over the past month, and 113.8% year-to-date [9] - Lithium hydroxide: 10.6% increase over the past week, 80.1% over the past month, and 118.7% year-to-date [9] - NAND index: 10.8% increase over the past week, 19.8% over the past month, and 170.3% year-to-date [9] Group 4: Seasonal Trends and Future Outlook - The first quarter is typically a favorable time for price increases, with expectations for further enrichment of price increase signals as the spring construction season begins and policies are implemented post the March Two Sessions [10] - The first quarter is seen as a critical verification window for whether the Producer Price Index (PPI) can stabilize and rise, based on historical inflation cycles [11]

Group 1 - The company plans to sign a contract with Henglai Shipbuilding (Dalian) Co., Ltd. for the construction of 4+2 vessels of 6,000 TEU container ships, with a total contract amount not exceeding 3.48 billion RMB or equivalent in USD (excluding tax), where 4 vessels are confirmed and 2 are optional [1][4] - The investment aims to optimize the company's fleet structure, expand fleet size, and enhance competitiveness in the container shipping sector, aligning with the company's strategic planning [4][5] - The funding sources for the investment include the company's own funds and self-raised funds [4] Group 2 - The transaction does not constitute a related party transaction and does not reach the threshold for shareholder meeting approval [2][8] - The implementation of the investment may involve overseas investment matters, which require filing with relevant national authorities [3][4] - The investment is expected to enhance the company's profitability and sustainable development capabilities, creating greater value for shareholders without adversely affecting the company's financial status or main business operations [5]