Investment Rating - The industry maintains a "stronger than the market" rating [7] Core Views - Precious Metals: The repeated changes in US tariff policies do not alter the long-term allocation value of gold. Recent economic data from the US shows a weakening trend, increasing market concerns about the economic outlook. This weak economic data will provide a basis for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts. According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of 73 global central banks expect to continue increasing their gold holdings over the next five years to diversify away from dollar assets, highlighting the central banks' willingness to purchase gold amid geopolitical factors and declining dollar credit. In the short term, potential risks and uncertainties from "reciprocal tariffs" support market risk aversion, leading to a price increase for gold, which is expected to show an overall pattern of easy rise and difficult fall. In the medium to long term, the core of gold trading remains risk aversion and stagflation trading under the uncertainty of global tariff policies and geopolitical factors, maintaining its long-term allocation value [3][12][13] - Industrial Metals: The supply-demand tightness remains unchanged, making it generally easy to rise and difficult to fall. For copper, the short-term expectation of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts continues, and the tight supply-demand pattern supports copper prices. In the medium to long term, as the Federal Reserve deepens interest rate cuts, it will boost investment and consumption, while opening up domestic monetary policy space. Additionally, the potential inflation rebound from the subsequent wide fiscal policies of the Trump administration will support the upward movement of copper price levels. Strong demand from the new energy sector will further widen the supply-demand gap, continuing to favor copper prices [4][14][15] - New Energy Metals: The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo may boost cobalt prices. The lithium market faces a dual weakness in supply and demand, with limited support from lithium salt plant repairs and production cuts. In the medium to long term, lithium mines are considered the most quality and elastic targets in the electric vehicle supply chain, suggesting strategic stock layout opportunities. Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, Yongxing Materials, and Zhongkuang Resources, with elastic attention to Jiangte Electric, Tianqi Lithium, and Ganfeng Lithium [4][19] - Other Minor Metals: The prices of rare earths remain stable. The tightening of spot supply and the slight reduction in the operating rate of separation plants due to cost and raw material supply issues have led to a relatively firm pricing environment. Demand is steadily increasing, with major magnetic material manufacturers continuing to procure, indicating that the demand remains, although the cautious purchasing attitude affects the overall order stability [5][20][23] Summary by Sections Precious Metals - The long-term allocation value of gold remains unchanged despite US tariff policy fluctuations [3][12][13] - Recommended stocks include Zhongjin Gold, Shandong Gold, and Chifeng Gold, with attention to Hunan Gold and Zhaojin Mining [3][12][13] Industrial Metals - The supply-demand tightness continues, supporting copper prices in the short term and medium to long term [4][14][15] - Recommended stocks include Luoyang Molybdenum, Tongling Nonferrous Metals, and West Mining [4][14][15] New Energy Metals - The cobalt export ban extension may lead to price increases [4][19] - Recommended stocks include Salt Lake Co., Cangge Mining, and Yongxing Materials [4][19] Other Minor Metals - Rare earth prices are stable, with demand increasing [5][20][23] - Recommended stocks include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Youshi, and Zhongjin Gold [5][20][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the rare earth materials sector is experiencing price fluctuations, with some magnetic material manufacturers obtaining export approvals amidst weak demand, leading to continuous adjustments in antimony prices [3][4] - The report emphasizes the ongoing commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion, indicating that upstream materials are expected to benefit significantly from this trend, with a broad market potential for related companies [6][9] Summary by Relevant Sections Rare Earths - Recent price changes include a 1.11% decrease in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 444,000 CNY/ton, while dysprosium oxide remains stable at 1,630,000 CNY/ton, and terbium oxide decreased by 0.69% to 7,150,000 CNY/ton [12] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced a faster approval process for rare earth exports to alleviate global supply chain tensions, which may lead to further price increases [3][4] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices are experiencing high volatility, with molybdenum concentrate prices down 0.52% to 3,845 CNY/ton, and molybdenum iron (Mo60) down 0.81% to 244,500 CNY/ton [18] Tungsten - Tungsten prices are also fluctuating, with black tungsten concentrate down 0.58% to 171,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate down 0.40% to 252,000 CNY/ton [23] Tin - Tin prices are mixed, with SHFE tin down 1.15% to 260,600 CNY/ton, while LME tin increased slightly by 0.08% to 32,400 USD/ton [32] Antimony - Antimony ingot prices have decreased by 5.81% to 202,500 CNY/ton, and antimony concentrate prices are down 5.33% to 177,500 CNY/metal ton, reflecting a marginal improvement in supply against weak demand [45]

Group 1 - China Galaxy Securities predicts that the overall A-share market will show a震荡向上的行情特征 in the second half of the year, with current valuations at a historical medium level and lower than overseas mature markets, indicating high investment cost-effectiveness [1] - The firm emphasizes that policy support for long-term capital entering the market and the expansion of equity public funds will likely maintain a stable and improving capital environment for A-shares [1] - The focus on technology innovation as a core driver for new supply-side reforms in A-shares is highlighted, with specific attention to sectors like AI computing, AI applications, and innovative pharmaceuticals [1] Group 2 - CITIC Securities characterizes the upcoming mid-term report season as having a risk preference decline and weak fundamentals, suggesting a focus on the North American AI hardware supply chain despite recent pullbacks [2] - The firm identifies sectors with strong mid-term report performance certainty, including wind power, gaming, and rare metals, while also noting that some segments in new energy have reached reasonable valuation levels [2] - Recommendations include considering banks that continue to attract capital inflows as a relatively stable investment choice [2] Group 3 - Huajin Securities advises focusing on valuation cost-effectiveness and balancing investments between technology growth and undervalued blue-chip stocks, given the positive domestic policies and liquidity conditions [3] - The firm points out that sectors like media, automotive, and power equipment have low transaction volumes and turnover rates, indicating potential for sentiment recovery [3] - Short-term focus is suggested on industries supported by policies and trends, such as new energy vehicles and financial services [3] Group 4 - Hua'an Securities maintains a positive outlook for the second half of the year on high-dividend sectors like banking and insurance, as well as industries represented by new metal materials [4] - The firm notes that while loose liquidity supports the market, slow internal growth recovery and policy considerations may limit rapid upward movement [4] - The overall A-share profit forecast indicates a trend of improvement starting from Q4 2024, which could be a significant factor for market upward breakthroughs [4]

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the accumulation of upward momentum in the A-share market, advocating for a focus on high dividend stocks, sectors supported by economic conditions, and active growth themes [3][4]. Market Overview - The market is expected to experience upward momentum amidst fluctuations, with loose liquidity providing a floor but slow internal growth limiting rapid increases. The overall profit forecast for the A-share market indicates a confirmed improvement trend, which may become a significant force for upward breakthroughs [6][11]. - The report predicts that the overall growth will show a steady decline, with GDP growth expected to reach 5.0% for 2025, with quarterly estimates of 5.4% for Q1 and 4.7% for Q4 [10][11]. Industry Allocation - The report suggests a preference for three main directions in industry allocation: 1. High dividend stocks, particularly in banking and insurance, which are expected to benefit from improved economic conditions and liquidity [4][6]. 2. Sectors supported by economic conditions, including new materials, rare metals, precious metals, engineering machinery, motorcycles, and agricultural chemicals [4][6]. 3. Active growth themes such as AI and robotics, and military industry, which are anticipated to experience a rebound after initial suppression [4][6]. Economic Analysis - The report highlights the interplay of "slow variables" like consumer behavior and "fast variables" such as exports and real estate, indicating that consumer spending is expected to recover slowly while external demand may weaken [12][19]. - It notes that consumer spending is heavily reliant on government subsidies, with the "old-for-new" policy significantly boosting consumption [20][22]. Export Outlook - The report indicates that global demand is under pressure due to tariff conflicts initiated by the U.S., which may hinder export growth. The forecast for export growth in 2025 has been adjusted to 1.8%, significantly lower than the previous year's 5.9% [46][47]. - It emphasizes the need for China to diversify its export markets and shift towards domestic sales in response to external uncertainties [47][48]. Real Estate Sector - The report discusses the weakening momentum in the real estate sector, with new home sales under pressure and a significant increase in unsold inventory. The forecast for real estate development investment has been revised down to a decline of 9.9% for 2025 [51][60]. - It highlights that the recovery in the real estate market is likely to face challenges without new policy stimuli, as transaction volumes and prices remain under pressure [53][56].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures, leading to a slight increase in major A-share indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.04% to 3388 points and the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.24% [1] - The total trading volume for the day was 1.22 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 15.4 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with nearly 3500 stocks declining across the market [1] Group 2 - The PCB and electronic components sectors saw gains, with companies like Huadian Co., Ltd. (002463) hitting the daily limit, and the storage chip sector also surged, with Kexiang Co., Ltd. reaching a 20% limit up [3] - The blind box economy sector experienced a downturn, with Yuanlong Yatu (002878) dropping over 8%, while the pesticide and veterinary drug sectors also fell, with Sulihua Co., Ltd. (603585) hitting the daily limit down [3]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：地缘冲突升级， 坚守贵金属投资 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 16 日 贵金属：金 ...

Macro Environment - The macro environment is characterized by intensified trade frictions and a continued interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, with a focus on changes in tariff policies [3][5][12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve stopped raising interest rates in July 2023 and is expected to cut rates by 100 basis points by May 2025, maintaining a high rate level [9][10] Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals are expected to continue to shine, with gold prices projected to rise due to weakened dollar reserve credit and increasing global central bank diversification of reserve assets [3][5][30] - Silver, which has lagged behind gold, is anticipated to experience strong demand for a rebound, with a focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhongjin Gold, and others [3][5][38] Base Metals - The base metal sector is expected to see a shift in weak expectations, with aluminum production nearing capacity limits and demand from new energy and power sectors offsetting declines in real estate demand [3][5][60] - Copper supply shortages are expected to persist, with a favorable outlook for price recovery following interest rate cuts [3][5][77] Minor Metals - The minor metals sector is witnessing a bottoming cycle with positive changes emerging, particularly in strategic minor metals like rare earths and tungsten, as well as a rebound in cobalt prices due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3][5][98][99] - Lithium prices are declining, and high-cost production is expected to accelerate exit from the market, while nickel supply disruptions are anticipated [3][5][60]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [7] Core Viewpoints - The non-ferrous metals industry index increased by 1.18% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index and ranking 12th among 31 first-level industries [2][14] - Precious metals have shown strong performance due to heightened market risk aversion influenced by global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the U.S. [5] - The report highlights a divergence in the prices of strategic minor metals, suggesting a focus on investment opportunities in this area [5] Summary by Sections Market Review - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 1.18% from May 26 to June 6, 2025, with small metals and new metal materials leading the gains at 4.56% and 3.93% respectively [2][14] - Precious metals, energy metals, and industrial metals saw changes of 1.41%, 0.38%, and 0.06% respectively during the same period [14] Precious Metals - As of June 6, COMEX gold closed at $3,331 per ounce, down 0.80% over the past two weeks but up 24.70% year-to-date [22] - COMEX silver closed at $36.13 per ounce, up 7.40% over the past two weeks and 20.49% year-to-date, driven by unique attributes and market sentiment [27][24] Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,795 per ton, up 2.08% over the past two weeks and 12.77% year-to-date [31] - LME aluminum closed at $2,432 per ton, down 0.23% over the past two weeks and down 4.12% year-to-date [31] Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) price reached 172,500 CNY per ton, up 4.86% over the past two weeks and 20.84% year-to-date [36] - Antimony ingot (99.65%) price was 215,000 CNY per ton, down 3.37% over the past two weeks but up 53.30% year-to-date [36] Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 183.45 as of June 6, up 3.09% over the past two weeks and 12.01% year-to-date [47] - Neodymium praseodymium oxide closed at 449,000 CNY per ton, up 4.66% over the past two weeks and 12.81% year-to-date [47] Energy Metals - As of June 6, electrolytic cobalt averaged 233,550 CNY per ton, down 0.98% over the past two weeks but up 36.98% year-to-date [52] - Sulfuric acid cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 48,375 CNY per ton, down 1.28% over the past two weeks and up 81.18% year-to-date [52] Major Events - Rosneft, Russia's largest oil producer, diversified its portfolio into rare metals by acquiring Vostok Engineering, which holds a development license for a rare earth deposit estimated at 154 million tons [4][59]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 行业周报 市场表现 -29% -22% -15% -7% 0% 7% 15% 22% 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 有色金属 沪深300 有色金属 优于大市（维持） 证券分析师 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 资料来源：德邦研究所，聚源数据 相关研究 1.《盛达资源：金银上行，扩产在即》， 2025.4.30 2.《锡业股份：原料自给上行，行业 持续景气》，2025.4.30 3.《有色金属周报：黄金剧震，持续 看好》，2025.4.27 4.《天山铝业：利润高企，成长性明 显》，2025.4.20 5.《有色金属周报：特朗普连续喊话 美 联 储 ， 关 注 贵 金 属 表 现 》 ， 2025.4.20 有色金属周报：国际局势莫测下 应坚守贵金属避风港 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 有色金属 2025 年 06 月 09 日 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 贵金属 ...

Market Overview - On June 9, the A-share market saw all three major indices close higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.43% to 3399.77 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 0.65% to 10250.14 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.07% to 2061.29 points. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 128.64 billion yuan, an increase of 13.44 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The pharmaceutical sector exhibited the strongest performance on June 9, with chemical pharmaceuticals reaching a nearly four-year high, immunotherapy hitting a two-year high, and weight-loss drugs achieving a one-and-a-half-year high. Other segments such as generic drugs and hepatitis treatments also reached new highs for the year [2]. - In May, at least six domestic innovative pharmaceutical companies announced business development (BD) transactions, primarily involving cross-border cooperation with foreign pharmaceutical companies. Additionally, at the recent ASCO conference, 73 research projects from China were selected for oral presentations, including 11 significant research abstracts [2]. Company Insights - Lingpai Technology, a notable stock on June 9, saw its share price increase by over 10%. The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of new environmentally friendly surface engineering chemicals. In Q1 2025, Lingpai reported an earnings per share of -0.15 yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -26.63 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.54%. The company has completed the research and development of the NCM811 battery chemical system and is actively involved in the new energy vehicle, energy storage, and engineering machinery sectors [4].