"今年7-8月，南方梅雨季节雨水偏多，钢材下游需求有所回落，而产量并没有明显下降。在这两个月， 钢材社会库存出现季节性回升。同时，价格也出现了新一波上涨，并提前消化了对旺季需求的乐观预 期。进入新的消费旺季后，下游需求并未如此前市场预期般强劲，因而价格回落，现货市场也进入到一 年中的第二轮主动去库存阶段。未来一段时间，在钢材价格走势疲弱的同时，社会库存大概率逐渐回 落。"山金期货研究所所长曹有明表示。 "9月之前，市场对钢材的旺季需求预期较高，且货币环境相对宽松，即便在库存绝对水平维持高位、去 库存状况不佳的淡季，期现价格重心仍在稳步上行。但随后因预期落空，9月以来螺纹钢、热卷期货价 格高位下滑。"国信期货分析师蔡元祺表示。 9月本是钢材消费旺季，然而期货盘面上，近期钢材期货却出现高位回调，目前价位较9月3日高点明显 回落。分析人士指出，旺季利好提前透支、地产新开工及基建投资增速明显不及预期等因素是本轮钢价 旺季回落的主要原因。整体看，钢材市场供需关系仍存在改善空间，但价格趋势或以反复震荡为主。 光大期货研究所黑色研究总监邱跃成分析认为，一方面，地产新开工及基建投资增速明显不及预期，对 市场信心带来一定的影响 ...

花旗预计，在全球AI资本支出周期推动下，半导体出口2026年全年将同比再增56%，今年已增23%。 据调查显示，韩国12月出口有望实现连续第七个月增长，其中AI芯片需求持续发挥核心引领作用。 基于11位经济学家预测的中值显示，作为全球贸易晴雨表的韩国出口额在12月将同比增长9.0%，创近 三个月最高同比增幅，较11月8.4%的增速进一步提升。 渣打银行经济学家在报告中写道："半导体出口仍是定海神针，受益于AI相关需求及传统存储价格企 稳。" 作为典型贸易依赖型经济体，韩国三季度经济同比增速跃升至近四年最高水平，这一强劲表现主要得益 于出口持续强劲增长及国内消费的显著反弹，两者共同形成复苏双引擎。 此外，上述调查还显示，12月进口同比增2.5%，前月为1.1%;当月贸易顺差中值100亿美元，高于11月的 97.4亿美元，为2017年9月以来最大。 韩国定于1月1日(周四)北京时间上午8点发布12月贸易数据。 然而，钢铁、机械、汽车等其他板块仍显乏力。美加征关税与竞争加剧是主因。韩国证券公司Meritz Securities经济学家Stephen Lee指出："其他产品缺乏动能，全球制造业资本支出周期需重启，但短 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，2025年1-11月，中国钢铁行业在需求疲弱的背景下实现了显 著的利润修复，呈现出"总量收缩但利润增长"的独特现象。黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 1115亿元，同比大幅增长1752.2%。这一成绩并非来自需求扩张，而是行业在成本让利、供给自律与产 品结构升级等多重因素共同作用下的成果。成本端实质性让利是本次利润改善的首要因素。 展望2026年，钢铁行业将延续"供给收缩、需求承压"的弱平衡格局。铁矿石供需转向宽松(西芒杜项目 放量)、政策端持续推动产能压减，为成本优化提供空间；但地产下行周期难逆转，普钢需求承压态势 或将延续。行业能否巩固利润修复成果，取决于高端产品竞争力构建与自律生产机制的持续性，通过技 术创新与精益管理锻造核心竞争力。 这表明行业正从规模扩张转向价值创造，高端化转型成效初显。出口超预期增长为国内过剩产能提供了 分流渠道。1-11月钢材出口量达1.08万吨，同比增长6.7%，有效对冲了国内建筑用钢需求下滑的压力。 此外，行业自律性增强，"反内卷"政策及"三定三不要"原则的落实，避免了恶性竞争，助力价格企稳。 尽管利润总额大幅提升，行业深层矛盾仍未 ...

持续去库&淡季需求受限，钢价震荡运行 ——周报20251222 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研究所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量181.68万吨（环比+1.62%，同比-16.94%），全国热卷周产 | | | | | 量291.91万吨（环比-5.44%，同比-6.65%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费208.64万吨（环比+2.73%，同比-4.98%），热卷表观消费 | | | | | 298.28万吨（环比-4.39%，同比-4.46%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存452.54万吨（环比-5.62%，同比+12.29%），热卷总库存 | 区间震荡 | | | | 390.72万吨（环比-1.60%，同比+26.33%）。 | | | | | | 螺纹钢 | 宏 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 12 月 29 日星期一 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周五夜盘螺纹热卷收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、全国财政工作会议在北京召开。会议指出，2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政 | | | | | 策；扩大财政支出盘子，确保必要支出力度；优化政府债券工具组合，更好发挥债 | | | | | 券效益。会议要求，2026 年财政工作抓好六项重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，大力 | | | | | 提振消费，加大对新质生产力、人的全面发展等重点领域投入；加快培育壮大新动 | | | | | 能，进一步增加财政科技投入等。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，1-11 月份，黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业实现利润总额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the necessity of developing disruptive carbon-neutral technologies to achieve significant reductions in carbon emissions in high-carbon industries such as electricity, steel, cement, and aluminum smelting, which currently rely on traditional processes that do not meet carbon neutrality standards [1][2]. Group 1: Disruptive Carbon-Neutral Technologies - Approximately half of carbon-neutral technologies have not yet reached commercial scale, particularly in "hard tech" and "deep tech," which are crucial for significant carbon emission reductions [2]. - Disruptive technologies related to "hard tech" include efficient photovoltaic cells, green hydrogen, and new energy storage systems, while "deep tech" encompasses electrochemical ironmaking, silicon-magnesium cement, and inert anode aluminum smelting [2]. - These technologies face market investment challenges due to high capital intensity and long investment cycles, often requiring decades to scale from prototypes to commercial viability [2][3]. Group 2: Public Capital to Leverage Market Capital - Public capital is essential for supporting the development of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, as it can alleviate some financial constraints, but its scale is limited [4]. - The main challenge for market capital is obtaining risk-adjusted returns, which can be addressed by using public capital to reduce field risks and attract diverse investors [4]. - Public capital can catalyze market capital by improving the risk-return profile through donations, guarantees, and other financial structures, thereby accelerating the development of tech startups [5][4]. Group 3: Case Studies of Public Capital Leveraging Market Capital - Boston Metal and Sublime Systems are examples where public capital provided grants for prototype validation and technology scaling, successfully attracting market investments for further development [8][11]. - Elysis and Zhongchu Guoneng are cases where public capital was used to co-invest with market capital during the demonstration and early commercialization stages, effectively filling funding gaps [11][12]. - The article outlines various international and domestic cases where public capital has successfully attracted market capital, demonstrating effective mechanisms for leveraging investments in disruptive carbon-neutral technologies [10][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - To further promote the innovation and development of disruptive carbon-neutral technologies, public capital should focus on supporting tech startups, establishing clear financing policies, and exploring financing mechanisms suitable for carbon-neutral tech [13][14]. - The transition from merely providing funds to achieving tangible outcomes for enterprises is crucial for unlocking economic potential and achieving climate goals [14].

新华社北京12月26日电 题：强化节约优先战略 持续提升能源利用效率——来自全国人大常委会专题询 问现场的声音 据郑栅洁介绍，当前，"绿水青山就是金山银山"的理念已经深入人心，节能从意识到行动形成良好生 态。 聚焦重点领域精准施策 "十四五"时期，算力设施用电量增长每年近20%，年用电量超过2500亿千瓦时，成为快速增长的重点用 能领域。孙泽洲委员询问，如何推进算力设施节能降碳？ 郑栅洁表示，加强新建项目源头把关，强化新上项目节能降碳审查评价，从源头提升算力设施绿色低碳 水平；加大存量设施改造力度，优化算力设施结构；强化余热资源回收利用，推动"应收尽收、能用尽 用"。 新华社记者王悦阳 十四届全国人大常委会第十九次会议24日举行联组会议，就节约能源法执法检查报告进行专题询问。 我国节能工作取得哪些成效？如何推进重点领域节能？怎样增强居民节能意识？……全国人大常委会委 员、专门委员会委员和全国人大代表等与会人员现场提出询问，国务院相关部门负责人予以坦诚回应。 节能降碳成效显著 我国是能源使用大国，节能非常重要。赵海英委员询问，我国在节能方面主要开展了哪些工作？ 国家发展改革委主任郑栅洁说，我国节能工作成效显著， ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Steel - Steel prices are expected to remain volatile. The upward elasticity of steel prices is constrained by weak demand, but the price is supported by steel mills' production cuts and inventory reduction. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot-rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. The rebar 1 - 5 positive spread can be gradually exited, and attention can be paid to the strategy of going long on the May rebar - iron ore ratio [1]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate. The supply is still at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is difficult to form a trend - like decline. The price is suppressed by high inventory above and supported by the replenishment expectation of steel mills with low inventory below. It is recommended to mainly conduct short - term range operations on the 05 contract, with the reference range of 760 - 810 [4]. Coke - Coke futures have fallen in advance. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis has weakened, and the rebound driven by expectations is difficult to sustain. It is recommended to take profit on long positions in the coke 2605 contract and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Coking Coal - The rebound expectation of coking coal has been overdrawn in advance. It is recommended to take profit on long positions and switch to shorting on rallies. Arbitrage suggests going long on coking coal and shorting on coke [7]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be alleviated, but the production cut expectation has been priced in. The improvement expectation on the demand side is insufficient, and the price rebound lacks sustainability. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the range of 5500 - 5700 in the short term [9]. Ferromanganese - The supply of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the supply - demand contradiction still exists. The price is expected to continue to operate weakly. It is recommended to short when the price rebounds above the spot cost in Ningxia, with short - term operations as the main strategy [9]. Summary by Directory Steel Price and Spread - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices mostly declined, and futures prices showed mixed trends. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased from 3310 to 3290 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price of hot - rolled coils increased from 3280 to 3283 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet prices decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the cost of some steel products decreased slightly. The profit of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased from - 99 to - 105 yuan/ton [1]. Supply - The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.1 tons. However, rebar and hot - rolled coil production increased, with rebar production increasing by 2.7 tons (1.5%) and hot - rolled coil production increasing by 1.6 tons (0.6%) [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 36.8 tons (- 2.8%), the rebar inventory decreased by 18.3 tons (- 4.0%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 13.5 tons (- 3.5%) [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials transaction volume increased by 1.6 (19.1%), the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 1.7 tons (- 0.2%), the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.0 tons (- 2.9%), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils increased by 8.8 tons (2.9%) [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spread - The cost of iron ore warehouse receipts and spot prices mostly increased slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 (2.3%), while the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 1.0 (- 5.1%) [4]. Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 128.0 tons (- 3.6%), and the 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 76.7 tons (- 2.8%) [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, the 45 - port daily average ore handling volume increased by 1.6 tons (0.5%), and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 176.2 tons (1.1%), the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 136.2 tons (1.6%), and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2.0 days (- 9.5%) [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Price and Spread - Coke and coking coal futures prices mostly declined. For example, the 01 contract price of coke decreased by 19 yuan/ton (- 1.1%), and the 01 contract price of coking coal decreased by 18 yuan/ton (- 1.8%) [7]. Supply - Coke production decreased slightly, and coking coal production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased from 63.0 to 62.7 tons (- 0.5%), and the raw coal output decreased from 856.1 to 853.4 tons (- 0.3%) [7]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged, and the demand for coke decreased [7]. Inventory - Coke and coking coal inventories in ports, steel mills, and coking plants all increased. The total coke inventory increased from 900.5 to 912.6 tons (1.4%), and the coking coal inventory in all - sample coking plants increased from 1036.3 to 1039.7 tons (0.3%) [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Price and Spread - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price decreased by 20.0 yuan/ton (- 0.4%), and the ferromanganese主力合约 price decreased by 6.0 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased. The production cost of ferromanganese in Inner Mongolia decreased by 6.7 yuan/ton (- 0.1%) [9]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production decreased slightly, and ferromanganese production increased slightly. Ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.1 tons (- 1.34%), and ferromanganese weekly production increased by 0.4 tons (2.34%) [9]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in steelmaking remained stable, and the steel mills' price - pressing sentiment in steel tenders was strong [9]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in some sample enterprises changed slightly. The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 tons (- 2.4%), and the inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.1 tons (0.4%) [9].

日本前首相鸠山由纪夫曾表示，中国不应该独自面对美国的贸易压力，而应尽早与其他国家合作，共同应对特朗普政府的关税打压。2019年6月28日至30 日，日本派遣经济产业省官员赤泽亮赴华盛顿，与美国贸易代表办公室、财政部以及白宫相关人员进行了为期三天的紧密磋商。 在这种紧张局势下，鸠山由纪夫在北京公开发表了讲话。他的判断非常直接，他认为，日本继续无条件跟随美国已经不可能，但与美国彻底决裂也不现实。 唯一的出路就是提高对美国的独立性。鸠山并不主张日本单独与美国对抗，他直言不讳地表示，特朗普不是一个可以说服的人，与他正面冲突只会招致更强 的报复。因此，鸠山提议，日本应该通过区域合作，分散美国施加的压力。 他进一步指出，虽然中国的实力在不断增强，但中国并不适合单独承担与美国全面对抗的成本。美国虽然整体衰退，但其综合国力与中国依然相差不小，进 行一对一的消耗战并不可取。鸠山因此将目光投向了中日韩三国，认为这三国是亚洲最大的经济体，产业互补性强。如果被美国逐一击破，后果将十分严 重；但如果能够建立协调机制，美国的要账式外交将无法奏效。 日本方面表示愿意增加对美国农产品和能源的采购，并表示在部分商品的关税上可以适当降低，但有一 ...

Industrial Sector - Raw material production continues seasonal adjustments, with steel and building materials output declining this week[1] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate decreased, while asphalt production increased[1] - Polyester and weaving industry operating rates weakened seasonally, while semi-steel tire production increased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities decreased by 25.2% year-on-year as of December 26, with a slight improvement of 3.0 percentage points compared to last month[1] - The second-hand housing listing price index fell by 0.62% month-on-month, with the decline narrowing[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 108.5% as of December 25[1] - Retail sales of automobiles decreased by 19% year-on-year from December 1-21, compared to a 7% decline in November[1] - Major home appliance retail sales fell by 34.4% year-on-year as of December 19, a decline of 11.3 percentage points from the end of November[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 3.1% year-on-year as of December 21, with container throughput up by 9.1%[1] - Export container freight rates rose by 2.0% this week, marking three consecutive weeks of increase[1] Price Trends - The Nanhua Industrial Index rose by 2.8%, while the Nanhua Non-ferrous Metals Index increased by 5.0% this week[1] - Agricultural product wholesale price index fell by 0.4% week-on-week, showing a stronger performance compared to the same period last year[1]