Economic Performance - In May, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the service production index rose by 6.2%[3] - Retail sales grew by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Fixed asset investment accumulated a year-on-year growth of 3.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month[3] Sector Analysis - Infrastructure and manufacturing investment grew by 10.4% and 8.5% respectively in the first five months of the year[3] - New energy vehicle production surged by 40.8%, while industrial robots increased by 32%[3] - Real estate sales and investment saw declines of -2.9% and -10.7% respectively in the first five months[3] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell from -2.7% to -3.3% year-on-year, indicating price pressures affecting investment[3] - Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed signs of stabilization, nearing the mid-level of 2022-2024[3] Future Outlook - The economy is expected to meet the annual growth target of around 5%, but structural changes will depend on the evolution of the current economic narratives[3] - Key issues to monitor include the potential overconsumption of durable goods, export growth rates, and the government's policy responses[3]

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 四个关系看居民工资 主要观点 ❖ 前言：本周主要聚焦居民工资。国内居民工资的调查来自季度的居民住户调查 以及年度的劳动工资调查。我们从四个关系予以分析目前的工资情况。包括可 支配收入中工资的占比（收入有多依赖工资）、不同群体工资增速的强与弱、 工资总额的分配变化、工资增速与转移性支出增速的比较（工资扣除项）。 ❖ 一、可支配收入中有多少来自工资？ 根据居民住户调查，2024 年，全国居民人均可支配收入 41314 元，全国居民 人均工资性收入 23327 元，即可支配收入中来自工资性收入的比重为 56.5%。 2025 年 1 季度，这一比例为 57.3%，从 2013 年以来的同期数据来看，这一比 例属于历史同期偏高水平。 关于工资数据，需要强调的是不包括单位缴纳的社保和公积金（注：资金流量 表中的劳动者报酬包括），包括现金收入和实物收入，包含个人所得税、个人 缴纳的社会保险等的应发收入。 ❖ 二、哪些群体的工资增速更快？ （一）分城乡：农村居民工资增速更高 2024 年城镇居民人均工资性收入增速为 5.04%，与 GDP 增速基本持平。农村 居民人均工资 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the stable growth of China's economy in May, driven by industrial production, service sector expansion, and consumer spending, while emphasizing the need for continued efforts to enhance domestic demand and economic resilience [1][10]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2] - The manufacturing sector grew by 6.2%, with equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [2] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises reached 21,170 billion yuan from January to April, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, with significant growth in information transmission, software, and IT services [3] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2%, indicating expansion, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5% [3] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 41,326 billion yuan in May, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [4] - Online retail sales reached 60,402 billion yuan, growing by 8.5% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 191,947 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment growing by 8.5% [5] - Infrastructure investment increased by 5.6%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 10.7% [5] Trade Performance - In May, the total value of goods imports and exports was 38,098 billion yuan, with exports growing by 6.3% and imports declining by 2.1% [6][7] - From January to May, the total trade value was 179,449 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% [6] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0% in May, showing a slight decrease from the previous month [8] - The average weekly working hours for employees were reported at 48.5 hours [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-on-year in May, with core CPI rising by 0.6% [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year-on-year in May [10]

Core Insights - In May, industrial investment in China increased by 11.6% year-on-year, indicating a robust growth trend in the industrial sector [1] - Investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5%, reflecting ongoing expansion in manufacturing activities [1] - The investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry surged by 25.4%, highlighting significant growth in energy-related investments [1] Investment Breakdown - First industry investment reached 384.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [1] - Second industry investment totaled 6,799.6 billion yuan, showing an increase of 11.4% [1] - Third industry investment was 12,010.4 billion yuan, experiencing a slight decline of 0.4% [1] Sector-Specific Insights - Mining industry investment rose by 5.8%, indicating steady growth in resource extraction [1] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 5.6%, demonstrating continued commitment to infrastructure development [1] - Notable growth in specific infrastructure sectors included water transportation investment increasing by 27.2%, and water conservancy management investment rising by 26.6% [1]

分经济类型看，5月份，国有控股企业增加值同比增长3.8%；股份制企业增长6.3%，外商及港澳台投资企业增长3.9%；私营企业增长5.9%。 分行业看，5月份，41个大类行业中有35个行业增加值保持同比增长。其中，煤炭开采和洗选业增长5.5%，石油和天然气开采业增长5.3%，农副食品加工业 增长7.6%，酒、饮料和精制茶制造业增长4.1%，纺织业增长0.6%，化学原料和化学制品制造业增长5.9%，非金属矿物制品业下降0.6%，黑色金属冶炼和压 延加工业增长4.8%，有色金属冶炼和压延加工业增长8.1%，通用设备制造业增长6.3%，专用设备制造业增长2.3%，汽车制造业增长11.6%，铁路、船舶、航 空航天和其他运输设备制造业增长14.6%，电气机械和器材制造业增长11.0%，计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业增长10.2%，电力、热力生产和供应业增 长2.0%。 分产品看，5月份，规模以上工业623种产品中有326种产品产量同比增长。其中，钢材12743万吨，同比增长3.4%；水泥16500万吨，下降8.1%；十种有色金 属683万吨，增长2.9%；乙烯303万吨，增长14.4%；汽车264.2万辆，增长11.3 ...

Core Insights - The fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China for the first five months of 2025 reached 191,947 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 3.7% [5] - The investment growth varied across different industries, with the primary industry growing by 8.4%, the secondary industry by 11.4%, and the tertiary industry declining by 0.4% [2][5] Investment by Industry - In the secondary industry, industrial investment increased by 11.6%, with mining investment up by 5.8%, manufacturing investment up by 8.5%, and investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply rising by 25.4% [3][5] - The tertiary industry saw infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grow by 5.6%, with significant increases in water transport (27.2%), water management (26.6%), and air transport (4.7%) [3] Regional Investment Trends - Investment growth varied by region, with the eastern region growing by 0.5%, the central region by 4.5%, the western region by 4.9%, and the northeastern region by 2.1% [3] Investment by Ownership Type - Domestic enterprises saw a fixed asset investment growth of 3.7%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises grew by 6.5%. In contrast, foreign enterprises experienced a decline of 13.4% [4][6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in PGM production by 12.5% quarter-on-quarter to 448,114 ounces (13.94 tons) and a decrease in gold production by 22.0% to 141,110 ounces (4.39 tons) in Q1 2025 [1][3] - The average basket price for PGM increased by 4% quarter-on-quarter to $1,362 per ounce, while the average gold price received was $2,832 per ounce, reflecting a 7.0% increase quarter-on-quarter [1][3] - The adjusted EBITDA for the group grew by 89% year-on-year to 4.1 billion Rand ($222 million), indicating significant financial improvement [6] - The report highlights operational challenges in the South African gold mining business, which are expected to improve in Q2 2025 [7] Production and Financial Performance - PGM sales decreased by 15.2% quarter-on-quarter to 473,028 ounces (14.71 tons), with a year-on-year decrease of 26.2% [1] - The operational cost for PGM was $1,393 per ounce, reflecting a 4% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 6.7% increase year-on-year [1] - The total cost for gold was $2,522 per ounce, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.6% and a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [3] - The adjusted EBITDA for South African gold operations increased by 178% year-on-year to 1.8 billion Rand ($98 million) [7] Future Guidance - The operational guidance for 2025 remains unchanged, with expected PGM production in the U.S. between 255,000 ounces and 270,000 ounces [11] - The anticipated capital expenditure for the U.S. PGM business is projected to be between $100 million and $110 million [11] - The report forecasts a decrease in gold production in South Africa to between 16,000 kg (514,000 ounces) and 17,000 kg (546,000 ounces) [12]

Group 1 - The US dollar has depreciated nearly 9% this year, influenced by the uncertainty of the Trump administration's tariff policies and a global trend towards reducing reliance on the dollar post-pandemic [1] - Central banks worldwide have significantly increased their gold reserves over the past three years to mitigate dollar risk, suggesting a potential long-term weakening of the dollar [1] - The Tanzanian shilling has appreciated significantly, becoming one of the best-performing currencies this year, with a 7% increase against the dollar, primarily due to strong growth in agriculture, mining, tourism, and transportation sectors [1] Group 2 - African countries are experiencing high inflation and debt levels, exacerbated by the dollar's appreciation and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, leading to a wave of de-dollarization in 2023 [2] - Some African nations are establishing local currency settlement mechanisms and using the Chinese yuan for transactions as part of the de-dollarization trend [2] - The United Nations Economic Commission for Africa has indicated that de-dollarization can benefit African nations' development and help mitigate risks [3] Group 3 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a 6% economic growth for Tanzania this year, amidst a global shift away from dollar dependency that has persisted for over half a century [4] - Deutsche Bank reported a decline in the dollar's safe-haven status and a crisis of confidence, predicting a gradual depreciation of the dollar, although its dominance will not be overturned quickly [4]

Group 1: US Labor Market and Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payroll report for May showed resilience in the labor market, with 139,000 new jobs added, exceeding the expected 126,000 [2] - The unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, aligning with expectations, but there was notable internal structural divergence, with the U1 unemployment rate decreasing and the U4 rate increasing [2] - Job growth in the service sector was strong, with an increase of 145,000 jobs, particularly in leisure and hospitality, as well as transportation and warehousing, while the goods-producing sector saw a decline of 13,000 jobs [2] Group 2: Wage Growth and Inflation Concerns - Private sector hourly wages increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3%, with a year-over-year growth rate steady at 3.9% [2] - The broad increase in wages across various sectors has intensified inflation concerns, providing the Federal Reserve with more reasons to maintain a cautious stance [2] Group 3: China's Foreign Trade Performance - China's foreign trade maintained a steady growth trajectory, with total goods trade value reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% [3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, while imports fell by 3.8% to 7.27 trillion yuan [3] - The central region of China led the growth in foreign trade, significantly outpacing the national average, supported by the "Central China Rising" strategy [3] Group 4: US-China Economic Negotiations - Following internal conflicts within the US administration, there is potential for a shift in the US's hardline stance during US-China economic negotiations, with initial meetings expected to yield positive outcomes [4] - US Treasury Secretary and Commerce Secretary reported productive discussions, indicating a possible easing of external pressures on China's economy [4]

Economic Growth - Morocco's economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2024, slightly higher than the 3.7% growth in 2023, driven mainly by domestic demand while facing inflation and increased financing needs [1] - The GDP growth at current prices is expected to be 7.9% in 2024, down from 11% in 2023, indicating a reduction in inflationary pressures [1] Sector Performance - The primary sector is underperforming, with an overall value added decline of 4.5%, agricultural output shrinking by 4.8%, and fisheries growth slowing from 6.9% in 2023 to 2.6% in 2024 [1] - The secondary sector shows strong growth, with value added increasing by 4.2% in 2024 compared to only 0.8% in 2023, driven by mining (+13%), construction (+5%), manufacturing (+3.3%), and utilities (+2.6%) [1] - The tertiary sector remains active but experiences a slight slowdown, with growth rates decreasing from 5% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024, although sectors like transportation and storage (+7.4%) and financial services (+7.3%) are accelerating [1] Income and Savings - National disposable income is expected to grow by 7.7% in 2024, down from 10.2% in 2023, while the national savings rate rises to 28.9% of GDP, compared to 28% in 2023 [2] - The investment rate is projected to be 30.1% of GDP in 2024, up from 29% in 2023, leading to an increase in the financing gap from 1% of GDP to 1.2% [2]