Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory, and an intraday trend of oscillating strongly [1][5]. - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Despite the large supply pressure and off - season downstream demand, the rebound of domestic coal futures prices offsets the weak fundamentals, and the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For methanol 2509, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, the intraday view is oscillatory and strong, and the reference view is a strong operation. The core logic is that there are differences between long and short positions, and methanol oscillates and stabilizes [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is oscillatory and strong, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of strong operation. The current supply pressure of methanol at home and abroad is still large, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Driven by the rebound of domestic coal futures prices, the 2509 contract of domestic methanol futures showed an oscillatory consolidation trend on Wednesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.08% to 2395 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory and strong trend on Thursday [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term soybean futures prices are expected to continue the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength, and the soybean meal and soybean oil futures prices are likely to maintain a volatile and upward - biased trend, while the palm oil futures prices are likely to show a volatile and downward - biased trend [6][9][10] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Calculation and Rating Criteria - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [3] - A decline of more than 1% is considered weak; a decline of 0 - 1% is volatile and weak; an increase of 0 - 1% is volatile and strong; an increase of more than 1% is strong [4] - The volatile and strong/weak viewpoints are only for intraday, without distinction between short - term and medium - term [5] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Soybean Meal (M) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: There are still risks in long - term supply. The procurement rhythm and cost in the fourth quarter are key variables for price trends. The short - term soybean futures prices maintain the pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Under the suppression of oil - meal arbitrage funds, the short - term soybean meal futures prices are expected to continue the volatile and strong trend [6] 3.2.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - Intraday view: Volatile and strong; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and strong - Core logic: The domestic soybean oil market is boosted by the US soybean oil futures prices and supported by oil - meal arbitrage funds. Driven by the expected increase in raw material soybean costs, the short - term soybean oil futures prices lead the rise in the oil market, reaching a new stage high, and the market sentiment has clearly warmed up [9] 3.2.3 Palm Oil (P) - Intraday view: Volatile and weak; Medium - term view: Volatile; Reference view: Volatile and weak - Core logic: The overall oil market is strengthening, with soybean oil and palm oil taking turns to lead the rise. The expected decline in Southeast Asian palm oil supply drives the market sentiment. The palm oil futures prices reach a new stage high, but are greatly affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the high - level fluctuations caused by capital inflows and outflows [10]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided 2) Core View of the Report - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run weakly, showing a short - term and mid - term oscillation, and an intraday oscillation on the weaker side [1][5] 3) Summary by Related Content a. Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within one week): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Mid - term (two weeks to one month): The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating trend [1] - Intraday: The methanol 2509 contract shows an oscillating and weaker trend, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5] b. Core Logic - As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol prices are dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. The supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol remains high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. This weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift [5] c. Market Performance - On the night session of Monday this week, the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract showed an oscillating and weaker trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.21% to 2379 yuan/ton. It is expected that on Tuesday this week, the contract may maintain an oscillating and weaker trend [5]

8月5日，A股小幅高开，早盘三大股指集体上涨，PEEK材料概念股活跃，军工股再度走强，生物科技、券商等板块拉升。 港股亦高开，早盘恒指、恒科指走强，生物科技板块上涨，军工板块活跃。债市方面，国债期货集体走低。商品方面，国 内商品期货分化，多晶硅涨超2%，焦煤涨1%，玻璃、碳酸锂等下跌。核心市场走势： 商品：国内商品期货分化。截至发稿，多晶硅涨近3%，焦煤涨超2%，集运指数、橡胶、热卷板涨超1%，螺纹 钢、工业硅、铁矿石、焦炭等走高。玻璃跌超1%，鸡蛋、红枣、纸浆、锰硅、碳酸锂等下跌。 | 44,85 | 名称 | 两日图 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FG509 | 玻璃2509 | 1441 | 1065 | -19 | -1.75% | | 1D2509 | 鸡蛋2509 | | 3362 | -32 | -0.94% | | Cleoa | 红枣2509 | MM | 0690 | -100 | -1.02% | | SP2509 | 纸浆2509 | | 5146 | -24 | -0.46% | | SM509 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The domestic crude oil futures contract 2509 is expected to run weakly, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of being volatile, and the intraday view is specifically volatile and weak [1][5]. - The geopolitical risk premium increase was the main driver for the recent oil price rebound, but after the digestion of previous positive factors, the contract 2509 closed significantly lower by 2.86% to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend on Monday [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Time - cycle and View - For the crude oil 2509 contract, the short - term view is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is volatile and weak, with an overall view of weak operation [1]. Price Movement and Logic - Geopolitical risks, such as the Trump administration's tough stance on Russia and potential energy trade restrictions, along with OPEC+ maintaining the September production increase plan but with actual supply growth possibly falling short of expectations, and summer demand peak and tight inventory, were the reasons for the previous oil price rebound [5]. - After the digestion of previous positive factors, the domestic crude oil futures 2509 contract closed 2.86% lower to 513.0 yuan/barrel on the night session of last Friday, and is expected to be volatile and weak on Monday [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Both沪胶 2509 and合成胶 2509 are expected to run weakly, with an intraday view of "oscillating weakly" and a mid - term view of "oscillating strongly" [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 General Information - Time period definitions: short - term is within one week, and mid - term is from two weeks to one month. Oscillating strongly/weakly only applies to intraday views [1]. - For calculating price changes, for products with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it's the previous day's closing price, and the ending price is the day - trading closing price. A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% is oscillating weakly, a rise of 0 - 1% is oscillating strongly, and a rise of more than 1% is a rise [2][3]. 3.2沪胶（RU） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic沪胶 futures 2509 contract closed 1.26% lower at 14,535 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [5]. 3.3合成胶（BR） - Intraday view: oscillating weakly; mid - term view: oscillating strongly; reference view: running weakly. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks in Sweden, with the digestion of positive factors and the dominance of bearish sentiment, the domestic合成胶 futures 2509 contract closed 0.60% lower at 11,510 yuan/ton on Thursday night and may maintain an oscillating and weakly running trend on Friday [7].

Report Information - Report Name: Baocheng Futures' Morning Report on Beans and Oils (August 1, 2025) [1] - Author: Bi Hui - Department: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Contact Information: Phone 0411 - 84807266, Email bihui@bcqhgs.com Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - The short - term prices of both soybean meal and palm oil futures are expected to run with a weakening trend in a volatile manner, while the medium - term prices are expected to be in a volatile state. For soybean meal, the overall performance is relatively more resistant compared to the external market [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [6] - **Core Logic**: The result of China - US negotiations was less than expected, leading to a pessimistic outlook for US soybean exports. The US soybean futures price fell below the 1000 - cent per bushel mark. The impetus of the domestic long - term procurement gap on market sentiment has weakened [6] Palm Oil (P) - **View**: The intraday, short - term, and reference views are all weakly volatile, and the medium - term view is volatile [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The repeated nature of international oil prices cannot provide continuous support for the oil market. As market sentiment subsides, the trading logic returns to the weak fundamental situation. The optimistic expectation for biodiesel has weakened, and the rotation market of the oil sector has paused. After the China - US trade negotiations fell short of expectations, the funds for oil - meal arbitrage temporarily avoided [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given documents. 2. Report's Core View - Both沪胶and合成胶are expected to run strongly.沪胶期货2509合约and合成胶期货2509合约are likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [1][5][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Trend Information - **沪胶（RU）**: The 2509 contract of domestic沪胶期货slightly rose 0.73% to 15,085 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected to maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [5]. - **合成胶（BR）**: The domestic合成胶期货slightly rose 0.21% to 11,880 yuan/ton on Tuesday night. It is expected that the 2509 contract of合成胶期货will maintain a volatile and strong trend on Wednesday [7]. 3.2 Driving Logic - The core driving logic for both沪胶and合成胶is that the third - round economic and trade talks between China and the US were held in Sweden this week. After one - and - a - half days of negotiations, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were conducted on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. In any case, the macro - sentiment will improve, creating a bullish atmosphere [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term and intraday view of being oscillating and strong, and a medium - term view of being oscillating [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Content - **Price Movement and View** - The short - term view of methanol 2509 is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and strong, and the reference view is to run strongly [1] - On Tuesday night, the domestic synthetic rubber futures slightly closed up 1.03% to 2442 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2509 contract may maintain an oscillating and strong trend on Wednesday [5] - **Core Logic** - This week, China and the US held the third round of economic and trade talks in Sweden. After a day - and - a - half negotiation, in - depth, candid and constructive exchanges were carried out on major issues of mutual concern. According to the consensus of both sides, they will continue to promote the extension of the 24% part of the suspended reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures as scheduled. Although there are still differences between the two sides, the financial market expects that if the talks don't succeed, they can be postponed. The macro - sentiment will improve, and under the support of a bullish atmosphere, the methanol futures may show an oscillating and strong trend [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term trends of agricultural products in the commodity futures market vary. Overall, the market is affected by multiple factors such as policies, supply and demand, and trade agreements [5][7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [5][7]. - **Core Logic**: The futures price of soybean meal is affected by market sentiment, fund position - changing, and oil - meal arbitrage. Future supply expectations are influenced by Sino - US negotiation results, and short - term soybean futures prices will mainly oscillate. It is also affected by import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [5][7]. 3.2 Soybean Oil (Y) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][8]. - **Core Logic**: Market sentiment is boosted by news of domestic soybean oil exports. The active oil - meal arbitrage funds drive the rebound of oils and fats. It is also affected by US bio - fuel policies, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7][8]. 3.3 Palm Oil (P) - **Time - cycle Views**: Short - term: strong; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong; Reference view: strong [7][9]. - **Core Logic**: The trade agreement between the EU and Indonesia has increased the optimistic expectations for palm oil demand. It is also affected by biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][9].