Group 1 - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving risk-averse sentiment, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1] - The U.S. stock index futures are declining, with the Dow futures down 0.1%, S&P 500 futures down 0.06%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.14% [2] - European stocks opened lower, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.04%, DAX down 0.2%, and FTSE 100 down 0.25%, while the CAC 40 index increased by 0.3% [2] Group 2 - Gold and silver prices have surged to record highs, with spot gold surpassing $3,500 and silver reaching a 14-year high, driven by risk aversion and expectations of rate cuts [2] - The Japanese 10-year government bond auction showed strong demand, with the bid-to-cover ratio reaching the highest level since October 2023, leading to a decrease in yields [2] - Crude oil prices have increased, with Brent crude rising by 0.57% to $68.52 per barrel and WTI crude up 1.59% to $64.99 per barrel [2]

Group 1 - Overregulation and a risk-averse regulatory culture are institutional barriers to innovation in Europe [4][5] - The European Union is criticized for focusing on bureaucracy, taxes, and regulation, hindering reform and innovation [4][5] - The report led by former ECB President Draghi calls for increased investment and competitiveness in the EU, but achieving this is deemed nearly impossible [4] Group 2 - The U.S. federal government debt has surpassed $37 trillion, with a rapid accumulation of debt over the past few years [2][3] - Net interest payments on the national debt reached $880 billion last fiscal year, a 33.9% increase year-on-year, and are projected to hit $1.2 trillion this fiscal year [2] - The Trump administration's fiscal policies, including the "big and beautiful" act, have not effectively addressed the underlying fiscal imbalance, leading to increased deficits [2][3] Group 3 - The European economy is facing a structural crisis characterized by high debt, weak growth, and insufficient innovation [5] - The combination of high debt levels and low growth is squeezing fiscal space and undermining competitiveness [5] - There is a pressing need for structural reforms in labor markets, welfare systems, and capital markets in Europe, but current political conditions make these reforms increasingly unlikely [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 26, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 3. Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the bullish foundation of the bond market remains unchanged as the Politburo meeting in July maintained the "moderately loose" stance on monetary policy, and there is high uncertainty in tariffs with the risk of a post - rush - export decline. Short - term, the stock - bond seesaw effect has strengthened since late June, and the bullish equity market has pressured the bond market. The marginal weakening of July's fundamental data still shows short - term resilience, making it difficult to trigger a significant increase in easing sentiment. The short - term bond market rebound is unlikely to form a trend. Currently, the stock - bond seesaw has slightly weakened, the central bank is actively supporting the capital market, and short - term bond varieties are more resilient [11][12]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: A - shares reached new highs, but the bond market was slightly desensitized. The Shanghai real - estate policy met expectations with limited impact on the bond market. After continuous adjustments, the bond market's protection cushion thickened, and with the central bank's active support and rising overseas easing expectations, treasury bond futures rebounded across the board [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities declined, with the long - end yields dropping more, about 3bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.7640%, down 2.1bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank actively supported the capital market, and the inter - bank capital market loosened. There were 2665 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2884 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations and injected 6000 billion yuan of MLF. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined, short - term capital interest rates fluctuated, the overnight weighted average of inter - bank deposits fell 6.2bp to 1.35%, the 7 - day rate rose 5.4bp to 1.52%, and the medium - and long - term capital remained stable [10]. 4.2 Industry News - A personal consumer loan discount policy will be launched on September 1, which is expected to accelerate institutions' expansion into consumption scenarios. Market rumors about restrictions on bond trading methods for small and medium - sized institutions were not confirmed by industry insiders. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" real - estate sales season is approaching, and policies have achieved positive results in promoting the real - estate market [13]. - Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting increased market bets on a September interest - rate cut [14]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data, cross - maturity spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of treasury bond futures was provided [6][17][21]. - **Money Market**: Data on inter - bank repurchase rates, SHIBOR term structure, and trends were presented [28][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M and FR007 interest - rate swap fixing curves was given [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the bond market followed the stock market. The influence of the stock index on the bond market weakened. Short - term focus on stock market changes: a strong stock market will suppress the bond market, while a stock market correction will benefit bond bulls. The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2][35][36] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Weekly Market Review - This week, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened lower with a gap on Monday and then fell sharply, fluctuated horizontally on Tuesday, fell sharply on Wednesday, rebounded after hitting the bottom on Thursday, and declined slightly on Friday. The 30 - year treasury bond fell 1.05%, the 10 - year treasury bond fell 0.52%, the 5 - year treasury bond fell 0.28%, and the 2 - year treasury bond fell 0.03% [5] - As of August 22, the maturity yield curve of treasury bond cash bonds shifted upward in parallel compared with August 15. The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond yields rose by 3, 4, 3, and 3 basis points respectively [8] 3.2 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure Data - In July, the national general public budget revenue was 2027.3 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.65%, and the expenditure was 1946.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.04%. From January to July, the cumulative general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the expenditure increased by 3.4% year - on - year [11] - In July, national tax revenue was 1801.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, and non - tax revenue was 225.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [13] - From January to July, the national government - funded budget revenue was 2312.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%, and the expenditure was 5428.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 31.7% [16] 3.3 Unemployment Rate - In July, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.8%, higher than the same period last year by 0.7 percentage points; the 25 - 29 age group was 6.9%, higher than the same period last year by 0.4 percentage points; the 30 - 59 age group was 3.9%, the same as the same period last year [19] 3.4 South Korean Export Data - In the first 20 days of August, South Korea's exports increased by 7.6% year - on - year. Semiconductor exports were 8.71 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 29.5%, accounting for 24.5% of the total exports in the first 20 days of August, up 4.2 percentage points from the same period last year [21] 3.5 New Home Sales Data - Since June, the decline rate of the national new home sales area has accelerated. From January to March, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 2.36 million square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. From August 1 to 20, it was 1.8 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16% [23] 3.6 Price Data - As of August 22, the 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices was 115.53. Prices showed a slight upward trend in the first 22 days of August, but the upward slope was much lower than the same period last year. In July, energy prices increased by 1.6% month - on - month, affecting the CPI to rise by about 0.12 percentage points. The average domestic refined oil price in August was lower than that in July [25] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly in the first 22 days of August. After reaching a closing high on July 25, it continued to decline. Short - term inflation pressure is limited [28] 3.7 Capital Interest Rate Data - This week, capital interest rates increased. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.45%, and it fell to 1.41% on Friday. The weighted average of DR007 was 1.52%, and it fell to 1.47% on Friday. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.67%, higher than last week's average of 1.64% [31][32] 3.8 Treasury Bond Futures Market Logic and Trading Strategy - In July, China's fixed - asset investment growth rate was significantly lower than market expectations. Retail sales of consumer goods, industrial added value, and the service industry production index were all lower than expected. Real estate sales and prices continued to decline, while exports exceeded expectations. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the State Council will take measures to stimulate consumption, expand investment, and stabilize the real estate market [35] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [36]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Instruments - The central bank announced the issuance of two types of central bank notes on August 25, 2025, with a total issuance of RMB 450 billion, including RMB 300 billion for a 3-month note and RMB 150 billion for a 1-year note [1] - The first re-issuance of the 2025 book-entry interest-bearing government bonds was completed, with an actual re-issuance amount of RMB 125.3 billion and an annual yield of 1.59% [1] - The latest minutes from the Federal Reserve's July monetary policy meeting indicated that most members view inflation risks as greater than employment risks, with concerns about high asset valuations [3][2] Group 2: Industry News - TianTai Robotics announced a historic order of 10,000 humanoid robots, marking the largest single order in the humanoid robot industry, indicating a shift towards "scale commercialization" [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to enhance product supply and promote the listing of important energy futures, such as liquefied natural gas, to improve the commodity index system [3] - A breakthrough in methane direct catalytic conversion technology was achieved by a team from Hainan University, with a conversion selectivity of 99.7% at low temperatures, enhancing energy security through efficient utilization of natural gas hydrates [4] Group 3: Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reported that "small but beautiful" companies in the textile and apparel sector are gaining attention due to their low valuations and positive operational changes, suggesting a potential revaluation [5] - Huatai Securities indicated that cobalt's long-term supply-demand dynamics are improving, with prices expected to rise significantly between 2025 and 2027, potentially exceeding RMB 350,000 per ton [6] - Galaxy Securities noted sustained high demand in the railway sector, with continued investment expected to support the performance of railway equipment companies [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance has announced operations to support the market-making of government bonds, aimed at enhancing liquidity in the secondary market and establishing a yield curve that reflects market supply and demand [1] - The operations will involve two types of government bonds: the 2025 10th issue and the 2025 12th issue, with operation amounts of 2.7 billion yuan and 2.8 billion yuan respectively [1] - The competitive bidding for the bonds will take place on August 19, 2025, with specific times allocated for each bond type [1] Group 2 - The bidding limits for the bonds have been set, with a price fluctuation range of 0.03 yuan for both bond types, and maximum bid prices of 40 yuan for the 10th issue and 35 yuan for the 12th issue [2] - The bonds will be listed for trading starting August 22, 2025, and participating institutions must deposit the operation funds into the designated account by August 20, 2025 [3] - Other operational matters will follow the guidelines set forth in previous notifications from the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The Sino - US second - round trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause as scheduled, and the policy tone of the Politburo meeting was basically the same as before. The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume, and the performance of heavy - weight stocks was strong. The improvement of corporate earnings needs to be verified by mid - report data [2]. - The stock - bond seesaw continues to put pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment of the bond market has not recovered [2]. - The fluctuation of gold prices increases due to macro news, but the upward trend remains. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak shock, and the short position of the 10 - contract should be held [2]. - Steel prices are supported by limited inventory in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. Some coal prices are loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation [2]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The short - term silver price is expected to continue to rise after range - bound fluctuations [2]. - The supply - demand situation of some energy and chemical products is complex. Some products are in a weak shock, and some have price support or improvement expectations [2]. - Some agricultural products are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and some have price trends affected by supply - demand factors [2]. - Some special and new energy products are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell with heavy volume. It is recommended to sell put options with an execution price of around 6400 for MO2509 when the price is high, and maintain a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The stock - bond seesaw puts pressure on long - term bonds, and the sentiment has not recovered. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and focus on the tax - period capital situation and new bond issuance pricing [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are expected to rise, and a bullish spread portfolio can be constructed through gold call options. Silver prices are expected to continue to rise after short - term range - bound fluctuations, and long positions can be held or a bullish spread strategy can be constructed [2]. Black - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices are supported, and iron ore prices fluctuate with steel prices. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of some coking coal is loosening, and coking plants have a profit recovery and a price increase expectation. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and go long on coke and short on iron ore [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper and Aluminum**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has improved, and the center of copper prices has risen. The supply - side benefits for aluminum are limited, and the price has a small increase. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: The price of crude oil is affected by geopolitical risks and supply - demand expectations. Some products such as PX, PTA, and styrene are in a weak shock, and some products such as bottle chips have price support [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: The prices of some chemical products such as PVC, pure benzene, and synthetic rubber are affected by various factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Agricultural - **Grains and Oilseeds**: The prices of some agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and oils are affected by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to take corresponding trading strategies such as stopping profit on long positions and shorting on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The prices of some agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, and eggs are in a weak adjustment or waiting for data guidance, and different trading strategies are recommended [2]. Special and New Energy - **Special Products**: The prices of some special products such as glass and rubber are affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended, such as holding short positions and waiting and seeing [2]. - **New Energy Products**: The prices of some new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate are in a state of shock or have price trends affected by specific factors, and different trading strategies are recommended [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The international oil price is expected to decline, with the fourth - quarter Brent crude oil price central falling to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter [2] - For precious metals, wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - Copper prices are difficult to break through effectively, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - Aluminum prices will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - For various commodities, different investment strategies are proposed based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions Summary by Commodity Categories Energy Commodities - **Crude Oil**: The IEA's August report increased supply growth forecasts and slightly decreased demand growth forecasts. The fourth - quarter Brent central may fall to around $63 per barrel from $67 per barrel in the third quarter. There is still upward risk due to potential supply disruptions, but the overall driving force is downward [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In August, the Asian fuel oil market has sufficient arrivals, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to the expected release of the third - batch quota and weakening costs [18] - **Asphalt**: Supply - demand is expected to tighten marginally. With low inventory, the price has some support, and the recent BU cracking is considered strong [19] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Overseas exports are loose, but there is support from increased East Asian chemical procurement. The price has stabilized slightly. The domestic market is in a low - level oscillation [20] Metal Commodities - **Precious Metals**: After the release of the US CPI data, the market fully priced in a Fed rate cut in September. Wait patiently for opportunities to enter the market on dips during the oscillatory trend [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Chile's refined copper output may increase but the growth rate may fall short of expectations again. It is difficult for copper prices to break through 79,500 yuan, and it is advisable to short on rallies [4] - **Aluminum**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is accumulating, but the peak may occur in August. The price will mainly oscillate in the short - term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [5] - **Zinc**: The domestic market has weak demand and increasing supply, and the social inventory may rise further. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan per ton [8] - **Lead**: The price is in a wide - range oscillation. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan per ton [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The fundamentals of nickel are poor, and it is advisable to actively short during the later stage of the rebound [10] - **Tin**: Selectively go short for the short - term at low prices [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The futures price oscillates, and attention should be paid to risk management [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The self - clearing of production capacity is difficult, and the price is affected by related varieties. Pay attention to the support at 8,300 yuan per ton [13] - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to operate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan per ton. It is recommended to short cautiously at the lower end of the range [14] Agricultural Commodities - **Soybean & Palm Oil**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, the short - term price volatility should be enlarged, and attention should be paid to the changes in positions [33] - **Rapeseed & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil market is expected to remain relatively strong, and a bullish view is maintained [34] - **Soybean No. 1**: Affected by the rapeseed anti - dumping policy and the US Department of Agriculture's supply - demand report, short - term attention should be paid to the fluctuations of surrounding varieties [35] - **Eggs**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in a situation of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and the progress of capacity elimination [37] - **Cotton**: The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report was bullish. Domestic inventory is decreasing, and it is advisable to buy on dips [38] - **Sugar**: The US sugar price is under pressure, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate [39] - **Apples**: The market's trading focus has shifted to the new - season output estimate. It is advisable to wait and see for now [40] Others - **Grain & Oil Chemicals** - **Urea**: The short - term supply - demand is loose, and the market is likely to oscillate within a range [21] - **Methanol**: The domestic market is strong in the inland and weak in the ports. With the approaching peak - season demand, attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream stocking [22] - **Pure Benzene**: There is an expected seasonal improvement in supply - demand in the second half of the third quarter, and it is advisable to conduct month - spread trading [23] - **Styrene**: The price is in a consolidation pattern, with limited upward and downward movement [24] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: Propylene prices are supported, polyethylene demand is expected to increase, and polypropylene is in a weak - adjustment state [25] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and caustic soda prices are under pressure at high levels [26] - **PX & PTA**: Affected by oil prices, the prices are falling. PX is expected to have a good valuation in the third quarter [27] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply - demand pressure is alleviating, and short - term performance is weak due to oil prices [28] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber can be considered for long - position allocation in the medium - term, and bottle - chip is under long - term over - capacity pressure [29] - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The market is in an active state, with a positive macro - driving force. It is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and also pay attention to consumption and cyclical sectors [43] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures are oscillating. The probability of a steeper yield curve is increasing [44]