Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the light industry sector [3] Core Insights - In April, China's overall exports showed resilience, with a year-on-year increase of 8.1% in export value, although exports to the U.S. declined by over 20% [8] - The global sales of AI smart glasses reached 600,000 units in Q1 2025, marking a 216% year-on-year growth, driven primarily by the success of Ray Ban Meta smart glasses [8] - The report continues to recommend sectors benefiting from new consumer trends, particularly in personal care and trendy toys [8] Summary by Sections Light Industry Manufacturing - The light industry manufacturing sector outperformed the market with a 3.02% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025, compared to a 2.00% increase in the CSI 300 index [17] - Sub-sectors such as entertainment products (+3.91%) and home goods (+3.30%) showed strong performance [17] Home Furnishing - In March, the furniture retail sales increased by 29.5% year-on-year, while the furniture export value decreased by 7.8% in April [45] - The report highlights the potential for recovery in the home furnishing sector as consumer confidence gradually improves [6] Paper and Packaging - As of May 9, 2025, the prices of various paper products showed mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5,250 CNY/ton (-56.3 CNY/ton) and boxboard paper at 3,506.6 CNY/ton (+2.4 CNY/ton) [55] - The paper industry experienced a cumulative revenue decline of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2025, with a sales profit margin of 2.7% [69] New Consumer Trends - The report emphasizes the growth in the AI smart glasses market, with expectations of 5.5 million units sold in 2025, driven by new product launches from various brands [8] - Recommendations include focusing on companies like Mingyue Optical and Kangnai Optical, which are positioned to benefit from this trend [8] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also outperformed the market, with a 3.47% increase in the index from May 6 to May 9, 2025 [27] - The report suggests monitoring leading brands in apparel and outdoor products as domestic consumption policies begin to take effect [27]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets set for smoke-free revenue contributions [11][12][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report emphasizes the trend towards a smoke-free era, with leading companies adapting to changing consumer habits and increasing their focus on new tobacco products. For instance, Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a continued high-pressure regulatory environment overseas, with several countries implementing bans on disposable e-cigarettes and the FDA accelerating the PMTA process for new products. This regulatory landscape is expected to influence market dynamics and product iterations [3][12] Domestic Suppliers - Domestic suppliers are positioned to enhance their global market share. For example, Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong reported a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a significant net profit increase of 48.4% year-on-year, indicating robust performance and strategic growth initiatives [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in manufacturing, which is expected to enhance its market share as HNB penetration increases globally [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading tobacco companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strategic positioning and growth potential in the evolving tobacco landscape [6][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets for smoke-free revenue [11][12] - Compliance is emphasized as a key development theme, with ongoing regulatory pressures in overseas markets leading to a decline in disposable vape products. The report anticipates a recovery in the compliant market and an acceleration in product iteration [3][12] - Domestic suppliers are poised for growth, with companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong showing stable revenue performance and plans for innovation and international expansion [4][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report discusses the increasing penetration of new tobacco products, which is changing consumer habits. Leading companies are focusing on R&D and product innovation, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [11][12] - Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030, while British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco have set similar ambitious targets for 2035 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a high-pressure regulatory environment in overseas markets, with new bans on disposable vapes in Belgium, France, and the UK. The FDA in the US is also accelerating its approval processes for new products [3][12] Financial Performance of Key Players - Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong achieved a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.4%. The company is optimizing its product and channel structure for better profitability [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in the manufacturing of smoking devices [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the evolving market [6][18]

证券研究报告 悦己消费和优质国货高增，稳健白马筑底 ——轻工制造24A&25Q1业绩综述 2025年05月04日 行业评级：看好 分析师 史凡可 傅嘉成 曾伟 褚远熙 陈秋露 01rto 经济大盘乏力， 消费结构性景气 2 邮箱 shifanke@stocke.com.cn fujiacheng@stocke.com.cn zengwei@stocke.com.cn chuyuanxi@stocke.com.cn chenqiulu@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230520080008 S1230521090001 S1230524090011 S1230524090009 S1230525040001 1.2 24A&25Q1综述：家居造纸筑底、个护保持成长 ne 24A&25Q1综述：情绪消费和优质国货成长凸显 子赛道具体表现：收入端文娱个护最优，利润端包装稳定性最强 3 1.1 复盘24Q4&25Q1：大盘消费疲软，以潮玩、宠物为代表的情绪消费类资产表现超额明显，此外部分优质国货产品创新能力突出， 借力差异化渠道实现较好的成长势能，持续重视成长资产布局，例如泡泡玛特、布鲁可、乖宝宠物、中宠 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, particularly in non-recurring net profit, indicating potential growth in various business segments [1][7]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 44.17% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.034 billion yuan, up 14.90% year-on-year, while net profit was 80 million yuan, down 32.01% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%, with net profit of 77 million yuan, up 37.81% [1]. Market Insights - The global smart controller market is projected to grow from 1.89 trillion USD in 2023 to approximately 1.98 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market expected to grow from 3.44 trillion yuan to 3.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 13.01% [1]. - The global new tobacco market is expected to grow by 12.7% in 2024, reaching 38.85 billion USD [2]. - The Chinese automotive electronics market reached 1.0973 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected growth to 1.1585 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from smart control components was 1.145 billion yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in new project capacity [3]. - Revenue from innovative consumer electronics was 1.137 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, with electronic cigarette sales showing stable growth [3]. - Automotive electronics revenue was 614 million yuan, up 19.43% year-on-year, benefiting from policies promoting vehicle upgrades [3]. - Health environment products saw a significant decline in revenue, down 53.14% year-on-year, due to increased market competition [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.36% and 28.82%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease and increase [5]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 431 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in performance across multiple business segments, including electronic cigarettes, automotive electronics, and health environment products, with projected revenues of 4.494 billion yuan, 5.366 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [7].

公司2025年第一季度IQOS HTU出货量达371亿支，同比增长11.9%，从销量占比来看，2025年第一季度 IQOS烟弹占公司总出货量(包含传统卷烟)的20.40%。IQOS在卷烟和HTU行业市场份额增长1.0个百分 点，市场份额超过9%，其作为现有市场第二大尼古丁品牌的整体地位得到进一步巩固，在全球加热不 燃烧品类里占据了约77%的市场份额。 天风证券主要观点如下： 菲莫国际25Q1新型烟草业务高速增长 智通财经APP获悉，天风证券发布研报称，近日，雷诺烟草500万美元收购12款PMTA在审电子烟，对 雷诺这种注重合规与长期布局的传统大烟草公司而言，收购这类产品无异于是获取合法市场准入的潜在 捷径。未来如果哪家公司能手握PMTA进展到实质性审核阶段的产品，将有很大可能因拥有合规资产成 为巨头并购热点，交易估值或进一步攀升。此外，随着美国新型烟草市场监管趋严，PMTA资产正在成 为全球烟草公司重点争夺的合规资源。业内预计，类似的并购交易将继续升温。 根据天鉴雾化产品合规实验室，2025年4月17日，查理控股公司(CHUC,Charlie's Holdings,Inc.)提交给美 国证券交易委员会(SEC ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported Q1 2025 revenue of $9.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% (10.2% adjusted) [3][4] - Revenue from smoke-free tobacco products reached $3.9 billion in Q1 2025, growing by 15.0% (20.4% adjusted), with its revenue share increasing to 42% from 39% in Q1 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - PMI's heated tobacco unit (HTU) shipment volume reached 37.1 billion sticks in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.9%, with global market share for HNB products rising to 77% [9] - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million by the end of 2024, an increase of 3.6 million [9] Market Insights - In Japan, IQOS market share increased by 3.0 percentage points to 32.2% in Q1 2025 [9] - In Europe, IQOS products saw approximately 7.4% growth in Q1 2025, with market share in the EU rising by 1.2 percentage points to 11.4% [9] Product Growth - Nicotine pouch sales grew rapidly, with a shipment increase of 27.2% in Q1 2025, and the U.S. market saw a 53% increase in shipments [9] - PMI expects smoke-free product sales to grow by 12%-14% in 2025, with HTU products projected to grow by 10%-12% [9] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include Yingqu Technology, Smoore International, and nicotine pouch-related companies due to the industry's growth potential [9]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Philip Morris International's (PMI) Q1 2025 results indicates significant growth potential for the heated tobacco product (HNB) market, which is relevant for Smoore International as a key supplier in this sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Smoore International's stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 13 HKD with a transaction volume of 73.1681 million HKD [1] - PMI's Smoke-Free Products (SFP) revenue increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 33.1% and a gross margin exceeding 70%, up by 6.7 percentage points [1] - The shipment volume for PMI's products grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with HNB, oral tobacco, and e-cigarettes increasing by 12%, 27%, and 107% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The international tobacco giants are advancing their smoke-free strategies, with PMI's Q1 performance aligning with expectations for HNB growth, particularly in the U.S. market [2] - The HNB market has substantial growth potential, with regulatory advantages over vaping products, including lower appeal to youth and easier harm reduction validation [2] - The competitive landscape for HNB is favorable due to fewer participating manufacturers, and British American Tobacco's new Glo Hilo product shows significant improvements in performance and user experience compared to both leading products and previous generations [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 15 周） 优于大市 美国对等关税对轻工行业的影响梳理 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期美国"对等关税"政策反复，外销链出现大 幅回调。当前政策仍有博弈空间，考虑到轻工业海外其他地区的产能承接与 替代性较低、美国制造业回流难度较大与关税压力存在转移手段，具备美国 本土产能或品类加价倍率高的代工企业预计短期更安全。 美国"对等关税"政策反复扰动出口市场。4 月 3 日，美国宣布对所有进口 商品普遍性加征 10%"最低基准关税"，同时对与其贸易逆差较大的经济体 征收额外对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、日本 24%、欧盟 20%，符合美墨加贸易协定的商 品免征关税。4 月 9 日，美国进一步宣布继续对我国产品加税至 125%，同时 对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓。本次美国对全球征税范围广、 幅度大，超出市场预期，高税额地区主要为我国与我国转口贸易地东南亚， 目前政策尚有博弈空间，若政策落地无论是国内直接出口或是转口贸易预计 均将受到较大冲击。 轻工外销公 ...