1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, SHFE copper oscillated between 102,000 and 104,000 yuan, with little change in open interest. Last night, non - ferrous metals and precious metals rose and then fell, and short - term long - position closing intention increased. The global observable visible inventory is close to 1 million tons, and domestic social inventory increased by about 35,000 tons in a single week. In the short term, silver can be used as a barometer, but last night the willingness of non - ferrous metals to follow the rise was relatively weak, and the industry needs time to digest. Technically, pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Aluminum**: Today, SHFE aluminum oscillated weakly, with a slight decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. As the aluminum price exceeded the 24,000 - yuan mark, the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased significantly. Technically, the aluminum price faces pressure at the 2021 high, and the long - short game of funds intensified [7]. - **Nickel**: Today, SHFE nickel rose and then fell, continued to decline in the afternoon, breaking below the 140,000 - yuan mark, with a significant decline in open interest. The short - term macro - atmosphere cooled, and the non - ferrous metal sector rose and then fell. Nickel has accumulated a gain of over 30% since its low in late December. The short - term long - position closing intention was strong. Industrially, the electrolytic nickel inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and LME continued to rise, and the weak industrial reality pattern remained unchanged. Pay attention to the support of the 10 - day moving average [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Recently, the current contract of SHFE copper mainly fluctuated between 101,000 and 105,000 yuan/ton, but the spot discount has significantly converged. As the delivery of the SHFE copper 2601 contract approaches, most of the goods have been converted into futures warehouse receipts due to the large spot discount, the market supply has decreased, and the short - term Contango structure of SHFE has reduced the willingness of holders to sell, supporting the convergence of the discount. The downstream consumption is still mainly for rigid - demand procurement, and it is expected that the spot will return to a discount when trading the SHFE copper 2602 contract. The new collective negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile remains deadlocked due to the continued impact of the strike on production [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts of copper basis, monthly spread, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, global copper exchange inventory, LME copper注销仓单比例, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [11][13][18]. - **Aluminum**: Charts of aluminum basis, monthly spread, domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), SHFE - LME ratio, and aluminum rod inventory are presented [23][25][31]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts of nickel basis, monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][45].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although the smelting output has declined month - on - month, it generally continues to grow at a high rate. The copper supply - demand expectation has turned to a deficit due to mine supply disruptions, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Price change: The copper price closed 0.46% lower overnight [2]. - Supply: The concentrate supply is tight, the smelting profit is at the break - even point, and the smelting output has declined month - on - month but still shows high growth. The mine supply disruption leads to an expected supply - demand deficit [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 103,430 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,172 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 64.31 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 138,975 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price closed 0.66% higher overnight [2]. - Supply: The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and the smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand: The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is in negative growth, and the real estate market is continuously weak. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level [2]. - Market data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,315 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,214 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 40.90 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 107,450 tons, and the daily change was - 550 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 24,350 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 120 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,185 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 10.40 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 497,825 tons, and the daily change was - 1,925 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 147,400 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,940 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 18,075 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 200.47 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 284,790 tons, and the daily change was 8,490 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,755 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 130 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,053 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 43.63 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 222,725 tons, and the daily change was - 3,725 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 357,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 2,290 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 48,200 dollars/ton, the LME spot discount was - 87.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was 10 tons [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New Year commodity options have collectively seen an increase in volatility and trading volume. Some varieties in the chemical sector are about to expire, such as short - fiber, methanol, soda ash, glass, bottle chips, caustic soda, propylene, PTA, and sugar 03 series option contracts will expire on Tuesday, while crude oil near - month option contracts will expire on Wednesday. Most implied volatilities are at high levels, and attention should be paid to the risk of rapid time - value erosion [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview - The trading volume of the commodity option market this week was 9,363,712.6, up 2.45% from last week; the open interest was 8,928,161, up 0.16% from last week. Among them, the trading volume of agricultural products, energy and chemicals, and black products increased, while the trading volume of precious metals decreased, and the trading volume of non - ferrous and new energy products increased significantly [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Overview - The report provides the flat - volatility, 60 - day quantile, Skew, and 60 - day quantile data of various commodity options, such as the flat - volatility of corn options being 11.83% and the 60 - day quantile being 93.33% [15]. 3.2.2 - 3.2.61 Various Commodity Options - For each type of commodity option (such as corn, soybean meal, etc.), the report details the closing prices, price changes, remaining trading days, trading volumes (including call, put, and total), trading volume PCR, open interests (including call, put, and total), open interest PCR, flat - volatility, HV - 10 days, HV - 20 days, and Skew of the main and secondary contracts and all contracts [16][17][18]...[76].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is concerned about the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's reciprocal tariffs, but the impact on copper is limited. The focus is on the US December non - farm employment indicators at night [2]. - Short - term funds are boosting Shanghai Aluminum to hit a record high, with a certain deviation from the fundamentals. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and its spot price is under pressure [3]. - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the demand may be "not off - season in the off - season" in 2026. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure at 17,800 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The stainless steel market is affected by policies, and the social inventory is accelerating to be depleted. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. - Shanghai Tin is in a position of increasing positions and gaming at the 350,000 - yuan mark. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level, with strong resilience. The price center is slowly and continuously rising [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in the northwest [10]. - Polysilicon prices are seeking cost support due to policy changes, and participation should be cautious [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai Copper reduced positions and oscillated, recovering losses during the session. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum increased positions and rose. Spot discounts in some regions narrowed, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and it is in significant surplus. The alumina spot price is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. Aluminum - SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The import window is still open. The recycled aluminum profit has recovered, and the refined - scrap price difference is 150 yuan/ton. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is still light. SMM zinc inventory has risen to 118,500 tons. In 2026, the consumption is expected to be moderately advanced. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel oscillated with active trading. The upstream price has started to rebound. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. Tin - Shanghai Tin increased positions and played around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot tin price dropped to 349,750 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,390 yuan to the delivery month. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream has a mentality of hoarding goods, and the downstream has a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The price center is slowly rising, and the market inventory has increased in the first week [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and went high, closing slightly down. There is a technical rebound, and there is news of enterprise production cuts. The supply side shows reduced production by large factories in Xinjiang, and low - level operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The demand side has a decrease in raw material demand from polysilicon and organic silicon. It is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after hitting the daily limit yesterday, with continuous capital outflows. The market expectation has changed, and the price is seeking cost support. Participation should be cautious [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: No rating provided [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Alumina: No rating provided [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No rating provided [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities) [1] - Tin: No rating provided [1] - Lithium Carbonate: No rating provided [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (Three white stars, indicating a balanced short - term trend and poor trading opportunities) [1] - Polysilicon: No rating provided [1] Core Views - The report provides daily updates and analysis on various non - ferrous metals, including price movements, inventory changes, and market sentiment. It also offers trading suggestions based on the current market situation for each metal [2][3][4] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the Shanghai copper contract increased its positions and the main contract switched to 2603. The Shanghai copper discount widened to 125 yuan, and SMM social inventory increased by 1.96 million tons to 27.38 million tons this week. The previous option strategy of selling 104,000 call options and buying 98,000 put options on the 2602 contract can still be held [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - The Shanghai aluminum price declined today. The spot discounts in East, Central, and South China narrowed to - 150 yuan, - 340 yuan, and - 120 yuan respectively, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. Although the domestic aluminum fundamentals are weak, there is a shortage expectation in 2026. Short - term capital has pushed up the Shanghai aluminum price to a historical high with high volatility, so speculation should be cautious. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan, and aluminum smelters can consider participating in selling hedging. The spot price of Baotai ADC12 was lowered by 200 yuan to 23,100 yuan. Scrap aluminum remained in short supply, and tax adjustments may increase costs in some areas. The spread between cast aluminum alloy and Shanghai aluminum under macro - drive has been seasonally weaker than in previous years. The domestic alumina operating capacity remained around 95 million tons, and there has been no long - term production cut. The alumina market is in significant surplus. Based on the 5 - dollar reduction in the Guinea first - quarter ore long - term contract price, the average cash cost in Shanxi and Henan will drop to around 2,600 yuan. The alumina spot price continues to be under pressure. After the futures price rose driven by the overall non - ferrous market, the basis decreased, and the upward trend is not sustainable [3] Zinc - Intraday, long - position holders reduced their positions at high levels. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc decreased by 7,751 lots, and the main contract fell 1.36%. The zinc price has not reached the downstream's psychological price, so downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases, and the spot trading remained light. SMM zinc inventory increased to 11.85 million tons. At the beginning of the "14th Five - Year Plan", there is a strong expectation of advanced consumption in 2026, and demand may not be weak in the off - season. The TC in January further decreased, and the cost support for zinc is still strong. However, the zinc ore is in a production - increasing cycle. Without a significant improvement in actual demand, the Shanghai zinc price will face significant pressure below 24,500 yuan/ton. The short - term Shanghai zinc price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton, and traders can participate in band trading [4] Aluminum (in the context of lead - related text) - The SMM 1 aluminum discount to the near - month contract was 155 yuan/ton, and it was profitable to deliver for warehouse receipt. SMM aluminum social inventory increased. The import window remained open, and the overseas surplus pressure could still be transmitted to the domestic market. The Shanghai lead price was under pressure and fell back at the 17,800 yuan/ton level, failing to break through the low - level consolidation range. After the profit of secondary lead recovered, production resumed, and the price difference between refined and secondary lead was 125 yuan/ton. Secondary aluminum holders sold at a discount, and downstream buyers mainly made just - in - time purchases with a strong wait - and - see attitude. Considering the increase in secondary aluminum tax costs, pay attention to the support at the 17,000 - yuan integer level when the Shanghai aluminum price corrects. The Shanghai lead price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The Shanghai nickel price plummeted, and the market trading was active. The market was in a "buy - on - rise" mode. Upstream steel mills and agents were strongly willing to support the price, and some agents stopped quoting and held back sales. Traders actively sold goods by offering small discounts. Driven by the bullish sentiment, some downstream buyers with rigid demand were forced to enter the market, and the trading volume of 304 - series stainless steel improved. In addition, stainless steel products were re - included in the export license management. Affected by the rush to export, the social inventory decreased rapidly. The high - nickel pig iron price was 921 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price began to rebound. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the nickel iron inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The bullish trend stopped, and the nickel market entered a consolidation phase [7] Tin - The Shanghai tin price declined, and the weighted index closed below 350,000 yuan. The domestic spot tin price was 35,050 yuan, with a real - time discount of 670 yuan to the delivery month. The market is concerned about the impact of changes in futures warehouse receipts on spot supply and demand under the background of high positions and high prices. At the same time, Indonesian tin ingot exports in January are characterized by a seasonal off - season. The volatility of Shanghai tin options is at a high level, and the strategy of selling 350,000 - yuan call options can be held until expiration [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium price is oscillating at a high level with strong resilience, and the market trading is active. Upstream lithium salt producers still have a mindset of holding back sales, and the volume of spot sales is limited. Some downstream material manufacturers maintain production through long - term contracts and customer - supplied channels, and only a small number of enterprises have rigid - demand purchasing behavior. The rigid - demand purchasing gap has slightly improved spot trading, and the price center has been slowly and continuously rising. The total market inventory decreased by 160 tons to 110,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 200 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory decreased by 900 tons to 39,000 tons, and the trader inventory increased by 900 tons to 53,000 tons. The overall inventory reduction speed has significantly slowed down, mainly because the downstream inventory reduction is slow. Traders still have confidence in holding goods, the inventory in the middle - stream is high, and the spot market has some support. The latest price of Australian ore is 1,765 US dollars, and the ore price remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price dropped significantly today, mainly dragged down by the sentiment from the polysilicon limit - down. From a fundamental perspective, although the supply side is affected by production cuts in some regions, the January production is expected to decrease by about 20,000 tons month - on - month. At the same time, the demand side is also weakening: the organic silicon industry is continuing to reduce emissions, and the operating rate is expected to decline. If the leading polysilicon enterprises in the north further cut production, the inventory accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. Overall, the market is significantly affected by sentiment and the linkage with related products in the short term, and the fundamental support is insufficient. After the sharp decline, the price may have a technical rebound, but under the pattern of weak supply and demand, the overall trend is expected to remain under pressure [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price hit the limit - down today. This is mainly because the regulatory authorities have made it clear that "anti - involution" should be promoted within the framework of marketization and the rule of law. The market's expectation for capacity clearance may shift from organizational coordination to technological iteration and market competition. On the spot side, although the increase in silver costs has driven the industry chain to try to raise prices, due to weak terminal demand and high inventory, high - price transactions are limited. Therefore, the market's expectation for supply - side integration has adjusted, and combined with the current weak fundamentals, the price has significantly corrected. The subsequent market may have a technical rebound, but under the dual constraints of regulatory guidance and fundamentals, the trend of a continuous rebound faces pressure [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: Copper prices fluctuated weakly and plunged in the afternoon, hitting the 100,000 yuan mark before rebounding. There is a growing divergence between domestic and foreign markets in the short - term. The cooling macro - atmosphere, increased profit - taking by funds, and weak industrial reality are pressuring prices. Short - term focus is on the long - short battle at the 100,000 yuan level [6]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices decreased with reduced positions, and the main contract price fell below the 24,000 yuan mark. The cooling macro - atmosphere and weak industrial reality are putting pressure on prices. Technically, aluminum prices face resistance at the 2021 high, leading to strong profit - taking by bulls [7]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices decreased with increased positions, dropping over 10,000 yuan/ton from the previous day's closing price. The cooling macro - atmosphere and large short - term rebound followed by a large correction, along with an oversupplied industrial reality, are pressuring prices. However, news from Indonesia has reversed industry expectations, and subsequent industry dynamics should be continuously monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 284,700 tons, up 37,600 tons from before the New Year's Day holiday. Spot copper prices dropped over 1,000 yuan/ton, improving point - pricing sentiment, but the actual transaction price of spot premiums continued to fall. SMM's electrolytic copper social inventory has been increasing since December 4, 2025, with a cumulative increase of over 100,000 tons, indicating weak domestic terminal consumption [10]. - **Aluminum**: On January 6, 2026, the aluminum market in Foshan showed a "polarized" situation. The SMM A00 (Foshan) aluminum price jumped 610 yuan/ton to 23,860 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 1,500 yuan/ton (6.7%) after the New Year's Day holiday. However, the processing fee of φ120 aluminum rods (Guangdong) dropped to - 80 yuan/ton, hitting negative territory for the first time this year. On January 8th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons, with a pre - holiday inventory increase of 80,000 tons [11][12]. - **Nickel**: On January 8th, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources held a press conference. The Minister did not disclose the specific amount for the 2026 RKAB approval of Indonesian nickel mines, stating that it is still being calculated and will be adjusted according to the total demand of smelting enterprises in 2026 [13]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, Shanghai electrolytic copper social inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, global copper exchange inventory (SHFE + LME + COMEX), SHFE warrant inventory, copper monthly spread, and SHFE inventory and inventory warrants [14][16][17]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand contradiction of electrolytic aluminum doesn't change much, with consumption shifting from peak to off - peak season. High prices suppress actual consumption, and attention should be paid to the over - expected inventory increase after price hikes. The macro - direction is upward, but a post - sentiment - release correction should be watched for [6]. - The supply surplus situation of alumina remains unchanged. Social inventory is increasing, and price lacks continuous upward momentum. Overseas ore supply is expected to be in surplus, and there is a chance for sell - hedging after the rally [8]. Group 3: Summary by Category Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 24,140 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 200 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - Central China A00 aluminum price is 23,930 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 410 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [1]. - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 24,130 yuan/ton, up 270 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 205 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On January 7, 2026, the Shanghai aluminum main contract opened at 24,280 yuan/ton, closed at 24,360 yuan/ton, up 285 yuan/ton, with a high of 24,750 yuan/ton and a low of 24,065 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 639,637 lots, and positions were 230,895 lots [2]. Aluminum Inventory - As of January 7, 2026, domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 684,000 tons, up 15,000 tons from the previous period; warrant inventory was 87,930 tons, up 3,726 tons; LME aluminum inventory was 501,750 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On January 7, 2026, SMM alumina prices were 2,655 yuan/ton in Shanxi, 2,585 yuan/ton in Shandong, 2,680 yuan/ton in Henan, 2,745 yuan/ton in Guangxi, 2,785 yuan/ton in Guizhou, and FOB price in Australia was 304 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On January 7, 2026, the alumina main contract opened at 2,822 yuan/ton, closed at 2,938 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton (4.97%), with a high of 2,975 yuan/ton and a low of 2,822 yuan/ton. Trading volume was 1,854,026 lots, and positions were 494,082 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On January 7, 2026, Baotai's civil raw aluminum purchase price was 18,000 yuan/ton, and mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 18,300 yuan/ton, both up 100 yuan/ton. ADC12 Baotai's quote was 23,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - Aluminum alloy social inventory was 70,200 tons, and in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 21,880 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 120 yuan/ton [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper: Night-time copper prices closed 0.68% lower. Concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month-on-month, overall growth continued. Power investment is stable, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. Supply disruptions in mines have shifted the global copper supply-demand outlook to a deficit, and short-term copper prices are more affected by market sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Zinc: Night-time zinc prices closed 0.37% higher. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continues to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, auto production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market remains weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but attention needs to be paid to the current sentiment of the overall non-ferrous market. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Night-time price change: Closed 0.68% lower [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting output shows high growth despite a monthly decline [2] - Downstream demand: Power investment is stable, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Supply-demand expected to turn into a deficit, short-term prices affected by market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 105,330 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 12,992 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: 2.98 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 142,550 tons, with a daily change of -2,775 tons [2] Zinc - Night-time price change: Closed 0.37% higher [2] - Supply situation: Concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continues to grow [2] - Downstream demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth slows, auto production and sales grow positively, home appliance production declines, and real estate is weak [2] - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, attention to market sentiment [2] - Key factors to watch: US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2] - Domestic previous day's futures closing price: 24,275 yuan/ton [2] - Domestic basis: 175 yuan/ton [2] - Previous day's LME 3 - month closing price: 3,195 dollars/ton [2] - LME spot premium/discount: -36.67 dollars/ton [2] - LME inventory: 105,850 tons, with a daily change of -475 tons [2] Other Metals - Aluminum: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 24,285 yuan/ton, domestic basis -220 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 3,086 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -22.70 dollars/ton, LME inventory 506,750 tons, daily change -2,500 tons [2] - Nickel: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 139,410 yuan/ton, domestic basis -6,850 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 17,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -175.35 dollars/ton, LME inventory 255,354 tons, daily change 72 tons [2] - Lead: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 17,490 yuan/ton, domestic basis -105 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 2,024 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -38.60 dollars/ton, LME inventory 236,900 tons, daily change -2,425 tons [2] - Tin: Domestic previous day's futures closing price 348,170 yuan/ton, domestic basis -14,710 yuan/ton, previous day's LME 3 - month closing price 42,466 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount -65.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory 5,415 tons, daily change 0 tons [2]

Group 1 - Short-term aluminum prices are influenced by macroeconomic sentiment fluctuations and ongoing supply concerns, leading to a continuous rise in Shanghai aluminum prices, which reached a four-year high with a 3.29% increase in the main contract [1] - The data from the post-trading position shows that short positions in Shanghai aluminum have increased significantly, with net short positions expanding by 19,300 contracts, resulting in a three-month low in the long-short ratio [1] - The non-ferrous sector shows strong bullish sentiment, with reports of disruptions in overseas mining and low copper inventories in non-US regions, causing copper prices to rise significantly, with Shanghai copper prices reaching a new high of 105,490 yuan, up 4.88% [1] Group 2 - The increase in short positions for Shanghai copper is also notable, with net short positions expanding to 60,000 contracts, indicating a stronger willingness among short sellers to position themselves at higher prices [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price rose 1.28% overnight, hitting a new record high. The supply of concentrate remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall. The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow. The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Copper - Price change: The copper price rose 1.28% overnight and hit a new record high [2]. - Supply situation: The supply of concentrate is tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output has declined month - on - month, it continues to grow overall [2]. - Demand situation: Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The supply disruption of copper mines has led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand expectation to a deficit, and the short - term copper price is more affected by market sentiment [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 101,190 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 45 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 13,088 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 41.98 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 145,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price change: The zinc price rose overnight [2]. - Supply situation: The processing fee of zinc concentrate has declined, the supply of concentrate is in a stage of tightness, and smelting output continues to grow [2]. - Demand situation: The overall inventory of galvanized sheets is at a high level. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing positively, home appliance production is negative, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Market expectation: The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment of non - ferrous metals needs to be concerned [2]. - Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,800 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,208 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 36.30 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 106,325 tons, and the daily change was - 1,300 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 23,610 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 230 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 3,090 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 27.69 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 509,250 tons, and the daily change was - 2,500 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 133,750 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 5,920 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 17,290 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 151.78 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 255,282 tons, and the daily change was 120 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 17,375 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 75 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 2,030 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 45.52 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 239,325 tons, and the daily change was - 2,600 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 334,030 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 7,990 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month closing price was 42,560 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 30.01 dollars/ton, the LME inventory was 5,415 tons, and the daily change was - 5 tons [2].