期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色反弹 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜偏强震荡，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 8.6 万关 口。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明显，有色也呈现反弹 态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放，市场或迎来情绪上 的修复。技术上，关注 8.6 万关口支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝减仓反弹。宏观层面，盘面有所回暖，贵金属反弹明 显，有色也呈现反弹态势。短期市场对美联储鹰派的情绪有所释放， 市场或迎来情绪上的修复。产业层面，随着铝价下跌，成 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The copper concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. However, smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - **Market Situation**: Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output keeps growing. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - **Outlook**: The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand. The strategy direction is that copper may be on the stronger side [2]. 3.2 Zinc - **Market Situation**: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The zinc concentrate processing fee has dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - **Outlook**: The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3.3 Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,330 | 20 | 10,767 | - 32.62 | 135,725 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 21,585 | - 20 | 2,806 | - 38.42 | 552,375 | - 825 | | Zinc | 22,455 | 25 | 2,990 | 104.97 | 38,975 | 1,175 | | Nickel | 116,650 | - 3,200 | 14,675 | - 203.57 | 252,090 | 120 | | Lead | 17,270 | - 190 | 2,039 | - 16.88 | 222,475 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 290,300 | 2,640 | 36,900 | - 75.00 | 3,065 | 10 | [2]

| | 操作评级 | 2025年11月17日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | なな女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 立☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ★☆☆ | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 工业硅 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周四沪铜震荡回7.7万，今日现铜76440元，平水铜咯微贴水85元。SMM社库增加200吨至21.96万吨。隔夜美联储 褐皮书显示通胀持续放缓,强化联储下次25个基点降息的预期,多地联储表示制造业活动下降。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slight bullish bias but limited operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term balance between long and short trends and poor operability, advising to wait and see [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, indicating a short - term balance and poor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clear bullish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, with a slight bearish bias and limited operability [1] Core Views - The market is affected by various factors such as government policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different metals show different trends and investment opportunities [1][2][3][4][5] Summary by Metal Copper - The Shanghai copper market rebounded this week, but both domestic and foreign copper prices faced resistance at 88,000 yuan and $11,000. The US government ended the shutdown, and the market focused on economic growth. Short - term short positions can be traded against 88,000 yuan, and the copper price is in a volatile state [1] Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum price fell from a high. The short - term fundamentals are stable, and the inventory and spot performance are neutral. The downstream procurement weakened, and the fundamentals deteriorated. The price is under pressure near 17,800 yuan/ton. The consumption expectation may improve in the short term, but the support for high prices is insufficient. Alumina is in a state of oversupply and is weakly operating [2][3] Zinc - The Fed officials' hawkish remarks led to a decline in the zinc price. The LME zinc inventory increased slightly, and the SMM zinc social inventory decreased. The domestic smelter profit is under pressure, and some smelters have cut production. The support for the decline of Shanghai zinc is seen at the 20 - day moving average [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The decline of Shanghai nickel accelerated. The nickel industry chain is in an overall over - supply situation. The mainstream stainless steel mills cancelled the price limit and lowered the price. The market is sluggish, and the nickel price is weakly operating [4] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price is in a high - level shock. The downstream battery orders increased, and the total inventory decreased. The ore price strengthened again. It is expected to be in a slightly strong shock in the short term [5] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures weakened slightly. The supply decreased during the dry season in the southwest, but the demand was dragged down. The short - term market is under pressure at a high level and continues to fluctuate [5] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose slightly, and the trading volume decreased. The photovoltaic terminal demand is weak, and the supply - demand improvement is limited. The market is driven by policy expectations and continues to fluctuate in the short term [5] Tin - The Shanghai tin price gave back yesterday's gains. The market follows the sector sentiment, and the mid - long - term short positions can be held against 295,000 yuan [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, meaning a bullish/bearish bias, with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Tin: ★★★, suggesting a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, showing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, representing a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Report's Core Views - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is affected by factors such as the US government's end of the shutdown, expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, and industry - specific supply - demand and policy situations. Different metals show various price trends and investment opportunities [2][3][5] Summary by Metal Copper - On Thursday, the non - ferrous metals sector showed a rising trend with increased positions. The short - term prices of Shanghai copper and LME copper tested RMB 88,000 and $11,000 respectively. The SMM social inventory increased by 5,200 tons to 201,100 tons this week, and the spot copper price rose to RMB 87,210. The Shanghai copper still had a premium of RMB 50. Short - term attention should be paid to the performance at the upper integer levels [2] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to rise with increased positions. The spot premiums and discounts in East, Central, and South China showed little change. The macro environment is positive, and the long - term supply - demand situation in the aluminum market is promising, but the short - term fundamentals are stable. The high point of Shanghai aluminum refreshed a three - year high, and the index increased positions by 30,000 lots to 820,000 lots. The price of Baotai ADC12 spot increased by RMB 100 to RMB 21,100. Alumina has an oversupply situation, and its price is expected to be weak with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The external market remained strong, and the export window for zinc ingots opened. The domestic smelters' production cuts are gradually being implemented, and the spot in East China is tight. The SMM zinc social inventory decreased by 800 tons to 157,900 tons. The price difference between the internal and external markets has limited room for further expansion. The short - term rebound of Shanghai zinc is expected to reach RMB 23,200/ton [3] Aluminum - The new national standard for electric two - wheeled vehicles will be fully implemented on December 1st, which is expected to improve the consumption of lead - acid batteries. The domestic aluminum spot is tight, and there may be hoarding by traders. The SMM aluminum social inventory continued to rise to 34,900 tons, and the futures - spot price difference widened. The price of Shanghai aluminum may face pressure at RMB 17,800/ton, but it is expected to break through the upper space, with the fourth - quarter high expected to reach RMB 18,200 - 18,500/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel declined slightly, and the trading was active with increasing positions. The nickel industry chain was affected by overall overcapacity and showed a dull performance. The mainstream stainless - steel mills cancelled price limits and then lowered the stainless - steel prices. The market was sluggish, and the trading volume was low. The pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 49,100 tons, the nickel - iron inventory increased by 500 tons to 29,600 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 946,000 tons. The nickel price is expected to be weak [6] Tin - The weighted price of Shanghai tin touched the RMB 600,000 integer level, and the trading was active. The spot tin price rose to RMB 296,000, and the real - time discount to the delivery month widened to RMB 1,250. The short - term price may test the integer level again. From a fundamental perspective, a short - long and long - short strategy or the allocation of out - of - the - money call options is recommended [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level, and the trading was active. The downstream battery factory orders increased due to the progress of pure - electric heavy - truck projects, the peak sales season of traditional vehicles, and the high demand for energy - storage batteries. The market inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 124,000 tons. The short - term trend is expected to be strong with a fluctuating pattern [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures declined in the late trading, giving back the intraday gains. The expected production cuts and price increases of silicone monomer enterprises may drag down the demand for industrial silicon. The monthly production of industrial silicon is restricted by the dry season, and the production of downstream polysilicon has also significantly decreased. The short - term price is expected to weaken [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures continued to rise, closing above RMB 54,000/ton. The disclosure of the significant achievements in the self - discipline of the photovoltaic industry by the National Energy Administration boosted market sentiment. The supply - demand situation has limited marginal improvement, but the industry has a strong willingness to support prices. The short - term spot price is expected to be stable, and the futures price will continue to fluctuate [10]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, recovering the overnight high at the end of the session, with an increase in open interest. At the macro - level, the market warmed up, and precious metals and non - ferrous metals strengthened collectively. At the industrial level, as copper prices rose, downstream wait - and - see sentiment resurfaced. Sustainable attention can be paid to the pressure at the 88,000 yuan mark [7]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum maintained a strong upward trend, with continuous increase in open interest. The main contract price of Shanghai aluminum stood above the 22,000 yuan mark, breaking through the high in May 2024. At the macro - level, the market may be trading on demand recovery or inflation expectations, and non - ferrous metals and precious metals generally rose. At the industrial level, the spot discounts of both Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum continued to decline, indicating that although inventories are currently low, spot goods are not in short supply. In the short term, aluminum prices broke through the 2024 high, showing strong upward momentum [8]. - **沪镍**: Today, Shanghai nickel fluctuated, with little change in open interest. Recently, while the non - ferrous sector was running strongly, nickel prices weakened against the trend, largely reflecting the weakness of the fundamentals. At the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium strengthened, providing some support for the futures price. Technically, attention can be paid to the long - short game at the 119,000 yuan mark [9]. 3. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons from Monday. SMM reported that the weekly operating rate of the enameled wire industry's machines rebounded 0.87 percentage points to 77.2%. Benefiting from the decline of copper prices to around 85,000 yuan/ton last week, the increase in new orders drove up the operating rate [11]. - **Aluminum**: On November 13th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 614,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from Monday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 13th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +3,800 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,620 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +650 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,470 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,450 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,270 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,350 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,170 yuan/ton [12]. 4. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [13][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The related charts involve aluminum basis, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, SHFE - LME ratio, aluminum monthly spread, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and aluminum rod inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The charts cover nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [36][37][39].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term bullish, short - term with limited driving force, long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish, strong support at 12000, long - term hold, ★★ [1] - Copper: Long - term hold, recommend buying on dips near the moving average, ★ [1] - Zinc: Rebound, short - term narrow - range oscillation, long - term supply increase and demand decrease, short on rebounds, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound, short - term price rebound, ★ [1] - Tin: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, short - term price spike, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Bearish, price relatively weak, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Range - bound, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, buy at the lower end of the range, ★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: High - level operation, take profit near the previous high, wait for low - buying opportunities, ★ [1] Core Views - The end of the US government shutdown, weak employment data expectations, and a weaker US dollar lead to a rise in market risk appetite, with precious metals and the non - ferrous sector showing positive sentiment. However, different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1][7][11] - Gold and silver are supported by factors such as potential interest rate cuts and central bank purchases, with long - term strategic investment value [1][4] - Copper is expected to have a long - term upward trend due to tight copper concentrate supply and growing green copper demand [1][6][7] - Zinc has short - term supply - demand weakness, with inventory accumulation both at home and abroad, and a long - term trend of supply increase and demand decrease [1][10][11] - Aluminum is affected by overseas production cuts and inventory changes, with short - term price increases [1][14][15] - Nickel has weak terminal demand, with inventory accumulation and a relatively weak price trend [1][18][19] - Lithium carbonate has a tight supply - demand situation, with continuous inventory reduction, but there are also factors that may limit price increases [1][22][23] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data intensifies December interest rate cut predictions, and the market amplifies unexpected data, leading to strong performance of precious metals [2] - **Basic Logic**: The 43 - day US government shutdown is approaching an end, which may reduce Q4 economic growth. There are signs of widespread inflation slowdown, and the housing rental market is weak. China's central bank has continuously increased its gold reserves. In the long term, gold may benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3][4] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the short term, domestic gold has support at 935, and silver has strong support at 12000. Long - term value - oriented positions should be held [4] Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper oscillates upward [5][6] - **Industrial Logic**: In Q3 2025, the output of major global copper mines decreased by nearly 5% year - on - year, and the decline is expected to continue in Q4. Refined copper supply has shrunk. Consumption has entered the off - season, and the downstream start - up rate is weak year - on - year. Copper has been included in the US key minerals list [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has increased. Copper is expected to be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips near the moving average with light positions. Long - term strategic positions should be held. The short - term trading range for Shanghai copper is [85000, 88000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [10500, 11000] US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc rebounds after testing the support at 22500 [9][10] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas zinc mine production has declined recently, leading to a short - term tightening of zinc concentrate supply. The processing fee for domestic zinc concentrate has continued to decline. Consumption is entering the off - season, and the galvanizing start - up rate has decreased. The zinc ingot export window has opened, and inventories at home and abroad have accumulated [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: With the end of the US government shutdown, the market risk appetite has recovered, but zinc demand is weak. It is recommended to take profit on long positions on rebounds. In the long term, short on rebounds. The trading range for Shanghai zinc is [22400, 22800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [3000, 3100] US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices rise and then fall, and alumina shows a relatively weak trend [12][13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas, the expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened. There have been production cuts at overseas electrolytic aluminum plants, and it is expected that there will be further cuts in March next year. Domestic aluminum downstream processing start - up rates are decreasing. The alumina market is currently in an oversupply situation, but there may be some support from production cuts by high - cost enterprises [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to take profit on Shanghai aluminum positions on short - term rallies. Pay attention to the start - up changes of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is [21000 - 21900] yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices continue to decline, and stainless steel shows a weak trend [16][17] - **Industrial Logic**: The expectation of an end - of - year interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve has weakened overseas. The inventory of nickel mines at domestic ports has decreased, but global nickel inventory has continued to accumulate. The stainless steel market is approaching the end of the peak season, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless steel. Pay attention to downstream consumption and stainless steel inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118500 - 121000] yuan/ton [19] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2601 opens slightly higher, rises and then falls, with wide - range oscillations throughout the day [20][21] - **Industrial Logic**: The supply - demand situation remains tight, with continuous inventory reduction for 12 weeks and an expanding reduction amplitude. Domestic production has reached new highs, and imports are expected to increase in November. The terminal market is strong, but there are factors that may limit price increases [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit on long positions near the previous high [85000 - 86600] [23]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices showed a narrow - range overnight oscillation, with domestic spot refined copper imports remaining in a loss. The weak ADP employment data in the US boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The market was still cautious, and copper might be short - term optimistic but overall in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory [1]. - Alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all showed an oscillatingly stronger trend overnight. Alumina factory profits were continuously compressed, with sporadic production cuts in loss - making capacities. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, with a short - term high - level adjustment rhythm. Attention should be paid to the potential for the market to recover during the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions [1][2]. - Nickel prices declined overnight. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and overseas copper prices oscillated narrowly. The US ADP employment data in October showed a decrease of 45,000 in private - sector employment, the largest decline in two and a half years. This boosted the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Domestically, the central bank emphasized policy balance. LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 136,250 tons, Comex inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 341,677 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts remained at 10,135 tons. Downstream demand was restricted by high - price concerns. LME was soliciting opinions on new permanent rules. Short - term copper might be optimistic, but overall it would likely oscillate at a high level [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina, aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended oscillatingly stronger. AO2601 closed at 2,826 yuan/ton with a 0.01% increase, AL2512 closed at 21,740 yuan/ton with a 0.23% increase, and AD2512 closed at 21,135 yuan/ton with a 0.31% increase. Alumina factory profits were compressed, with sporadic production cuts. The electrolytic aluminum market was multi - faceted, and the short - term would continue the high - level adjustment rhythm. Aluminum alloy followed the adjustment, and attention should be paid to the long - AD space after the spread narrowed [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.5% to $15,025 per ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.25% to 119,150 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 96 tons to 253,308 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain was weak, and the new - energy industry chain had a slight decline in ternary precursors in November. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, nickel prices might oscillate, and inventory conditions should be monitored [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 11, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,715 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan from the previous day. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 136,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 825 tons to 42,964 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2,663 tons to 337,749 tons. The domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.3 million tons to 29.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,350 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 574 tons to 23,769 tons, and the weekly inventory increased by 2,583 tons to 38,582 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: On November 11, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,620 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan; the Nanhai price was 21,490 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 547,225 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 64,142 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 0.5 million tons to 62.7 million tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 3.2 million tons to 16.0 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 123,100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. LME registered +注销 inventory remained unchanged at 253,404 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 241 tons to 32,292 tons, and the weekly nickel inventory increased by 436 tons to 37,187 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 0.5%. The LmeS3 price was $2,505.5 per ton, unchanged. The domestic spot price increased, and the inventory at SHFE increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons [6]. - **Tin**: On November 11, 2025, the main - contract settlement price was 287,410 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The LmeS3 price was $27,540 per ton, down 2.1%. The spot price increased, and the SHFE inventory increased by 73 tons to 5,992 tons [6]. 3. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin spot premiums from 2019 - 2025 were presented, showing the historical trends of these premiums [8][10][15]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin SHFE near - far month spreads from 2020 - 2025 were provided, demonstrating the historical trends of these spreads [16][19][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts of LME copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were shown, indicating the historical inventory trends [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts of SHFE copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin inventories from 2019 - 2025 were displayed, presenting the historical inventory trends [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel social inventories were presented, with time - span data from 2019 - 2025 for some and 2020 - 2025 for others, showing the historical social - inventory trends [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts of copper concentrate index, rough - copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate were provided, with data from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of these smelting - related indicators [44][46][48]. 4. Introduction of the Non - ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a science master, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious - metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and a top industrial - futures analyst in the futures and securities fields. He has over a decade of commodity - research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [51]. - Wang Heng, a finance master from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research. He provides timely market and policy interpretations and has written many in - depth reports [51]. - Zhu Xi, a science master from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching lithium and nickel. She focuses on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy and provides timely market and policy interpretations [52].

Overall Information - Report title: "Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals Daily Report" [1][2][5] - Report date: November 11, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Shanghai copper opened higher and then fell back, maintaining a volatile trend during the day with little change in open interest. The recent decline of the US dollar index and the agreement in the US Senate to end the government shutdown have boosted market risk appetite. The spot premium has rebounded. Technically, attention should be paid to the resistance at the 87,000 yuan mark [6]. - **Aluminum**: Shanghai aluminum opened higher and then fell back, with a weak intraday oscillation and open interest increasing first and then decreasing. The recent decline of the US dollar index is beneficial for non-ferrous metals. As aluminum prices rise, downstream purchasing willingness has declined. Technically, attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [7]. - **Nickel**: Shanghai nickel oscillated weakly, with open interest increasing when prices fell and decreasing when prices rebounded. The weak industry continues to put pressure on nickel prices, and nickel prices have not recovered above the 120,000 yuan mark even when the non-ferrous metal sector is relatively strong. Continuous attention should be paid to the resistance at the 120,000 yuan level [8]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: According to Cochilco data, Codelco's copper production in September decreased by 7% month-on-month to 115,600 tons. On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 198,300 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons from last Thursday [10]. - **Aluminum**: On November 10, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 616,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last Thursday [11]. - **Nickel**: On November 11, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 119,400 - 123,200 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,300 yuan/ton, a rise of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range for Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 3,500 - 3,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 3,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range for domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was -100 - 300 yuan/ton [12]. Related Charts Copper - **Base difference**: Chart 1 shows the copper base difference [13]. - **Domestic visible inventory**: Chart 3 shows the domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory) [14]. - **LME cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart 5 shows the LME copper cancelled warrant ratio [15]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 4 shows the overseas copper exchange inventory [19]. - **SHFE warrant inventory**: Chart 6 shows the SHFE warrant inventory [20]. Aluminum - **Base difference**: Chart 7 shows the aluminum base difference [24]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart 8 shows the aluminum monthly spread [30]. - **Domestic social inventory**: Chart 9 shows the electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory [26]. - **SHFE - LME ratio**: Chart 11 shows the SHFE - LME ratio [28]. - **Overseas exchange inventory**: Chart 10 shows the electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX) [32]. - **Aluminum rod inventory**: Chart 12 shows the aluminum rod inventory [34]. Nickel - **Base difference**: Chart shows the nickel base difference [38]. - **LME inventory and cancelled warrant ratio**: Chart shows the LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio [40]. - **LME nickel trend**: Chart 17 shows the LME nickel trend [41]. - **SHFE inventory**: Chart 16 shows the SHFE nickel inventory [43]. - **Monthly spread**: Chart shows the nickel monthly spread [45]. - **Nickel ore port inventory**: Chart 18 shows the nickel ore port inventory [46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Derivatives**: The stock index futures are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend, while the bond market sentiment is not weak, but the upward space of bond futures is limited [20][23]. - **Agricultural Products**: The protein meal has support in the near - term, while the long - term is under pressure. The sugar price is expected to be volatile. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage. Corn and its starch are in a strong - side volatile state. The pig price is expected to be under pressure, and peanuts are in a short - term bottom - shock state. Egg prices may have limited upside, and apple prices are mainly stable. Cotton prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [26][31][35][38][42][46][51][54]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices are in a range - bound state. Coking coal and coke are expected to be adjusted in the short - term and offer buying opportunities after a pullback. Iron ore is considered from a bearish perspective, and ferroalloys' previous short positions can be reduced [57][60][63][64]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Copper is in a short - term shock state. Alumina prices may rebound slightly but face pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to be stronger in a volatile state. Zinc requires attention to export volume, lead is in a range - bound state, and nickel prices are expected to weaken in a volatile manner [67][70][74][77][79][86][89][93]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The stock index futures followed the spot market to strengthen. The trading volume and open interest of some varieties changed. The market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. The trading strategies include not chasing high, building long positions on dips, conducting IM/IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and using bull spreads on dips [19][20][21]. - **Bond Futures**: Bond futures closed mostly higher on Monday. The market funds tightened, but the bond market showed resilience. The upward space of bond futures is limited. The trading strategies include waiting and holding short positions on the 30Y - 7Y term spread and considering long positions on the T - contract current - next quarter spread [22][23]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The export prospects of US soybeans have improved, providing support. The domestic soybean meal has supply uncertainties, with strong near - term support and long - term pressure. Rapeseed meal is expected to be in a shock state [26]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the sugar production in major producing areas is increasing, and the fundamentals are weak. Domestically, the sugar price is expected to be in a range - bound state, with limited downward space due to policy support [31]. - **Oil and Fat Sector**: In October, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia increased as expected. The oil and fat sector is in a bottom - grinding stage, and there may be a technical rebound in the short - term [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn futures rebounded. The domestic corn spot price is strong, and the futures are in a strong - side volatile state [36][38]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is generally in a downward trend. The overall supply pressure still exists, and the pig price is expected to be under pressure [39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the 01 contract is in a short - term bottom - shock state. The 05 contract can be considered for short - term long positions [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand for eggs has improved slightly, but the supply of laying hens is still at a high level, and the upside space of egg prices is limited [44][46]. - **Apples**: New apples are gradually being stored, and the price is mainly stable. The inventory is expected to be lower than last year, but the current futures price is at a high level, so it is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The cotton picking is coming to an end. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. The cotton price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [53][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of rebar is increasing, and the steel price is in a range - bound state. The supply and demand structure suppresses the steel price, but there is support at the bottom due to environmental protection [57]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market drive is not obvious in the short - term, and it is expected to be adjusted in a volatile manner. In the medium - term, there are buying opportunities after a pullback [60]. - **Iron Ore**: The terminal demand is weakening, and the supply is at a high level. The iron ore price is expected to be in a high - level bearish operation [62][63]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply and demand of ferroalloys are weakening at the margin, but the cost provides support. The previous short positions can be reduced [64]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: The market's liquidity expectation has improved, and precious metals are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner [67]. - **Copper**: The short - term copper price is in a shock state. The supply is tightening, and the demand is warming up [70][71][73]. - **Alumina**: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus. The price may rebound slightly, but it faces pressure from the basis [77]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: There are still concerns about overseas supply, and the aluminum price is expected to be stronger in a volatile manner [79][81]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Affected by the cost and demand, the cast aluminum alloy price will maintain a strong - side volatile state with the aluminum price [85]. - **Zinc**: Attention should be paid to the export volume of zinc [86]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a range - bound state, and it may decline with the increase of social inventory [89][90]. - **Nickel**: The cost of nickel has loosened, and the nickel price is expected to weaken in a volatile manner [93].