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从全球宏观看铅锌市场
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-08-08 02:55
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]
盘面持续回暖,有色偏强运行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 10:28
作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 2025 年 8 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 盘面持续回暖,有色偏强运行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜维持震荡运行,持仓量小幅下降。宏观层面,美元指数 持续下挫,国内氛围较好,利好铜价。产业层面,周四 Mysteel 电解 铜社库为 13.33 万吨,较上周升 1.20 万吨。国内盘面再度回暖,铜 价或持续回升。 沪铝 昨日夜盘铝价高开,日内维持强势震荡整理,持仓量持续上升。 宏观层面,国内氛围回暖,铝国内定价能力较强,上行明显。产业层 面,下游淡季,铝棒呈现累库态势,电解铝也随之累库。宏观回暖, 产业偏空, ...
有色套利早报-20250806
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-06 03:21
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 6, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Directory Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the domestic spot price was 78,625, the LME spot price was 9,647, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.17 with a profit of - 172.87. The domestic three - month price was 78,580, the LME three - month price was 9,715, and the ratio was 8.08 [1] - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,310, the LME spot price was 2,759, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.67 with a profit of - 1,611.98. The domestic three - month price was 22,390, the LME three - month price was 2,773, and the ratio was 6.01 [1] - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,520, the LME spot price was 2,574, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.50 with a profit of - 1,350.12. The domestic and LME three - month prices were both 20,530 and 2,574 respectively, and the ratio was 7.97 [1] - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 120,000, the LME spot price was 14,909, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.26 with a profit of - 2,154.23 [1] - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,525, the LME spot price was 1,927, and the spot import equilibrium ratio was 8.87 with a profit of - 486.97. The domestic three - month price was 16,770, the LME three - month price was 1,969, and the ratio was 11.34 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 6, 2025, the spreads between the next month, three - month, four - month, and five - month contracts and the spot month were 230, 230, 210, and 160 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 494, 886, 1286, and 1687 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were 120, 130, 125, and 110 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 335, 455, and 575 [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 15, - 45, - 85, and - 145 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 75, 70, 95, and 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 313, 418, and 522 [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads were 420, 570, 740, and 980 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread was - 810, and the theoretical spread was 5552 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads between the current - month and next - month contracts and the spot were - 245 and - 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 172 and 641 [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 50 and 70 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 119 and 249 [4] - **Lead**: The spreads were 175 and 250 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 135 and 245 [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 6, 2025, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc for Shanghai (three - continuous) were 3.51, 3.83, 4.69, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.75 respectively, and for LME (three - continuous) were 3.49, 3.76, 4.88, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.72 respectively [5]
国投期货有色金属日报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:44
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium in the multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, advising to wait and see [1] - Alumina: ★☆☆, with a slightly bullish/bearish trend and a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lead: Not explicitly rated in the content [5] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis indicating market trends [6] - Tin: ★☆☆, having a slightly bullish/bearish trend with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer multi/short trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Polysilicon: Not explicitly rated in a standardized way but with analysis on market trends [10] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on different metal characteristics [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Categories Copper - Shanghai copper closed slightly up on Tuesday. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. LME copper inventories increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the copper price at the MA40 moving average is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly. The spot discount in East China was 40 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventories increased by 20,000 tons. There has been continuous inventory accumulation for two weeks, and the apparent consumption decline in the off - season is significant. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short - term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium - term, it has certain resilience compared to the aluminum price. Recently, the operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. In the short - term, alumina fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is relatively limited due to the firm price of bauxite in the overseas rainy season [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. Funds continue to reduce positions, and short - selling sentiment is gradually released. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The zinc concentrate TC still has room to rebound. The demand seasonality is obvious, and the support for prices is insufficient. However, as the 08 contract enters the delivery month and the 09 and 10 contracts expire during the "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season, policy changes need to be monitored. The support for Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at the 22,000 - yuan integer mark. Wait and see for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Short - selling sentiment was gradually released, and Shanghai lead rebounded. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The discount to the 08 contract narrowed to 30 yuan/ton. Lead concentrate supply is in short supply, and some primary lead refineries have regular maintenance plans from late August to early September. Consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The refined lead price remains flat, and the price advantage of recycled lead is almost gone. Downstream buyers prefer to purchase low - priced primary lead. Lead ingot inventories are decreasing, which supports Shanghai lead. In August, the traditional peak season, monitor social inventories to verify the peak - season effect. It is expected that Shanghai lead will fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and market trading was active. The speculation on the anti - involution theme in the domestic market was severely hit, and the theme speculation cooled down rapidly. Nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of nickel - iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall inventory level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound. Actively enter short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventories, and is supported by the production decline of Indonesia's天马 in the first half of the year. Technically, both domestic and overseas tin prices should pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and market trading contracted. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods entered the market. Downstream inquiry activities were active, and spot market transactions improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the refinery inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The downstream increased replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest Australian ore quote was $745, which clearly followed the price decline. The weekly smelting output decreased by 8%. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policy expectations. In the spot market, the supply in major producing areas shows marginal increases, while the realization of the demand increase in polysilicon in August is still uncertain. The leading organic silicon monomer plants are still in the process of gradual resumption. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon shows a slight accumulation trend. Currently, the sentiment in the photovoltaic sector has not dissipated, and industrial silicon futures have corrected significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures rose and then fell at the end of the session, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton, highlighting the divergence between long and short positions. The driving force for the long side comes from the expectation of the adjustment of the export tax rebate for photovoltaic modules. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly revise up their production schedules. The current market highly depends on the implementation rhythm of policies. Given the uncertainty of policy games, consider buying call options [10]
市场氛围回暖,有色震荡上行
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:19
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The Shanghai copper futures showed an upward trend with a slight decline in open interest. The market sentiment improved due to the suspension of counter - measures against the US by Europe and the US, leading to an upward trend in the non - ferrous sector. On the industrial side, as copper prices rose, market consumption sentiment weakened, and with the addition of imports, the willingness of holders to sell increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the July low [3]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded with an increase in open interest. The domestic market sentiment improved, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. In the industrial aspect, it was the off - season for downstream industries, and both aluminum rods and electrolytic aluminum showed inventory accumulation. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 40 - day moving average [4]. - **Nickel**: The main contract price of nickel fluctuated narrowly below 121,000 yuan, and the open interest of Shanghai nickel continued to decline. The domestic market sentiment was good, and the non - ferrous sector generally rose. The industrial logic remained unchanged from the previous period, and the prices of ferronickel and nickel sulfate both increased. Technically, the main contract price had technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 5, affected by the US tariff increase on copper semi - finished products, some domestic copper processing exports to the US were under pressure. A copper tube enterprise's goods arriving in the US on August 5 were additionally taxed 50%, and the comprehensive tariff for copper tube exports to the US reached 97%. As a result, the US customers' subsequent un - signed orders were suspended. On August 4, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 134,300 tons, an increase of 9,300 tons compared to the 28th and 13,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Aluminum**: On August 5, the total inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi was 92,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 500 tons. On August 4, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 547,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons compared to the 28th and 22,000 tons compared to the 31st [7]. - **Nickel**: On August 5, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the price of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was 123,290 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2250 yuan/ton; Russian nickel was 121,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 550 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel was 124,340 yuan/ton with a premium of + 3300 yuan/ton; and nickel beans were 123,590 yuan/ton with a premium of + 2550 yuan/ton [8]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [9][11][12] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME nickel inventory and cancelled warrant ratio, LME nickel trend, and SHFE inventory [35][38][39]
国投期货企业微信图表17543703469446.png(27024287)
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 11:18
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report presents the average prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals and related products, including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, silicon, and lithium carbonate, along with the corresponding升贴水 and their changes [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper average price is 78,615, with a price increase of 195; SMM flat - water copper升贴水 is 110, down 45 [1]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum average price is 20,520, up 40; SMM A00 aluminum升贴水 is - 40, down 10. Alumina (Shanxi) average price is 3,240, unchanged; Australian alumina FOB average price is 375 dollars, down 2 dollars [1]. Lead - SMM 1 lead ingot average price is 16,600, down 100; SMM 1 lead ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, up 20. Recycled refined lead average price is 16,600, down 125; the refined - scrap price difference is 0, up 25 [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot average price is 22,300, up 130; SMM 0 zinc ingot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 35, up 20 [1]. Tin - SMM 1 tin average price is 267,000, up 1,200; SMM 1 tin升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 550, down 80. 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) average price is 255,000, up 1,200; the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.51% [1]. Nickel - 1 imported nickel average price is 121,100, up 600; 1 imported nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 350, unchanged. 1 Jinchuan nickel average price is 123,000, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel升贴水 to the Shanghai nickel contract average price is 2,250, down 100 [1]. Silicon - Oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) average price plus 800 is 9,550, down 250; 553 spot升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,180, down 205. 421 silicon (Kunming) average price is 10,000, polysilicon dense material average price is 0, granular silicon average price is 0, and N - type polysilicon material average price is 47 [1]. Lithium Carbonate - Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 71,200, down 150; battery - grade lithium carbonate升贴水 to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 1,560, down 350. Industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 69,100, the battery - industrial carbon price difference is 2,100, with no change [1].
有色金属日报-20250805
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-05 10:04
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a neutral stance with poor market operability [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: No rating provided [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, showing a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Lead: No rating provided [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: No rating provided [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bearish view with limited trading opportunities on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, representing a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★, suggesting a clear bearish trend with appropriate investment opportunities [1] - Polysilicon: No rating provided [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals, including price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory changes, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these factors [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Categories Copper - The Shanghai copper futures closed with a small gain. The spot copper was reported at 78,615 yuan, with a premium of 130 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The LME copper inventory increased to over 150,000 tons. There is a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. The resistance of the MA40 moving average to copper prices is strong, and LME copper may decline to $9,500. Hold short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum futures rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 20,000 tons. The apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. The short - term may be under pressure to fluctuate, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum. The scrap aluminum market has a tight supply, and the profit of aluminum alloy is negative. In the short term, the price fluctuates, and in the medium term, it has certain resilience relative to aluminum prices. Alumina production capacity is at a historical high, and the industry is in a state of surplus. In the short term, it fluctuates weakly, but the decline space is limited [2] Zinc - The zinc market returns to the fundamental logic of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position has decreased to 205,600 lots. Refineries have sufficient raw materials, and supply is expected to increase. The demand in the off - season is weak. The 08 contract enters the delivery month, and the 09 and 10 contracts are in the traditional peak season. Pay attention to policy changes. The support level of Shanghai zinc is temporarily seen at 22,000 yuan. Wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Shanghai lead futures rebounded after stopping the decline. The SMM1 lead average price was reported at 16,600 yuan/ton. The supply of lead concentrate is in short supply, and some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans from late August to early September. The consumption is the key to the rebound of Shanghai lead. The inventory of lead ingots has decreased, forming support for Shanghai lead. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel futures rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation of the anti - involution theme cooled down, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamentals returned to the fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron remained basically unchanged at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 966,000 tons. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin futures rose during the session, and the current tin price was 267,000 yuan. The overseas tin market has low inventory, but the actual LME Indonesian tin warehouse receipts are small. The export trend of Indonesia is sometimes contrary to the output of PT Timah. Technically, pay attention to the support of the MA60 moving average for tin prices. Hold short positions at high levels [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated, a large amount of goods entered the market. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. The lithium carbonate futures price has some support after the decline, and it is expected to fluctuate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon futures closed up with fluctuations, driven by the sentiment of relevant photovoltaic export policies. The supply in major producing areas increased marginally, and the demand increase in polysilicon in August was uncertain. The weekly inventory of industrial silicon showed a slight accumulation trend. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures main contract pulled up and then fell back, closing above 50,000 yuan/ton. The bullish sentiment comes from the expectation of the adjustment of photovoltaic component export tax rebates. The downstream silicon wafer and battery cell enterprises are expected to slightly increase production. Considering the uncertainty of policy implementation, consider buying call options [10]
有色套利早报-20250804
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 13:48
Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The report presents cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on August 4, 2025 [1][4][5] Summary by Category Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: Spot price is 78370 in domestic and 9595 in LME with a ratio of 8.16; March price is 78390 in domestic and 9645 in LME with a ratio of 8.11. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.19 with a profit of - 18.16; spot export profit is - 12.21 [1] - **Zinc**: Spot price is 22310 in domestic and 2740 in LME with a ratio of 8.14; March price is 22330 in domestic and 2751 in LME with a ratio of 6.04. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.68 with a profit of - 1484.30 [1] - **Aluminum**: Spot price is 20520 in domestic and 2572 in LME with a ratio of 7.98; March price is 20465 in domestic and 2575 in LME with a ratio of 7.95. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.51 with a profit of - 1364.15 [1] - **Nickel**: Spot price is 118650 in domestic and 14742 in LME with a ratio of 8.05. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.27 with a profit of - 1639.80 [1] - **Lead**: Spot price is 16450 in domestic and 1925 in LME with a ratio of 8.60; March price is 16745 in domestic and 1967 in LME with a ratio of 11.37. Spot import equilibrium ratio is 8.88 with a profit of - 549.50 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 300, 290, 230, 200 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 493, 883, 1283, 1682 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 35, - 25, - 30, - 55 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 215, 336, 456, 577 respectively [4] - **Aluminum**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are - 70, - 115, - 160, - 210 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 214, 329, 444, 559 respectively [4] - **Lead**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 295, 305, 325, 280 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 207, 310, 414, 517 respectively [4] - **Nickel**: The spreads of次月 - 现货月, 三月 - 现货月, 四月 - 现货月, 五月 - 现货月 are 770, 900, 1160, 1400 respectively [4] - **Tin**: The 5 - 1 spread is 1150 and the theoretical spread is 5510 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 205 and 95 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 230 and 707 respectively [4] - **Zinc**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are 45 and 10 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 136 and 250 respectively [5] - **Lead**: The spreads of当月合约 - 现货 and 次月合约 - 现货 are - 10 and 285 respectively; the theoretical spreads are 122 and 233 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - The ratios of沪(三连) for copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, lead/zinc are 3.51, 3.83, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, 0.75 respectively; the ratios of伦(三连) are 3.53, 3.75, 4.88, 0.94, 1.30, 0.72 respectively [5]
宝城期货有色日报:有色震荡上行-20250804
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 10:25
从业资格证号:F3035632 投资咨询证号:Z0014648 电话:0571-87006873 有色金属 姓名:龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 邮箱:longaoming@bcqhgs.com 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书,期货投 资咨询资格证书,本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度,独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 4 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色震荡上行 核心观点 沪铜 今日沪铜呈现减仓反弹态势,空头了结意愿较强。宏观层面,上 周五美国非农就业爆冷,市场风险偏好下降,本周一国内市场氛围 较好,有色呈现反弹态势。产业层面,本周一电解铜小幅累库。技 术层面,主力期价位于 7 月低位,有一定技术支撑。 沪铝 今日沪铝早盘小幅下挫后,日内呈现震荡上行态势,持仓量变化 不大。宏观层面,周一国内市场情绪较为稳定,且铝国内定价较强, 上周五对非农就业爆冷反应不大。产业层面,本周一 Myste ...
方正中期期货有色金属日度策略-20250801
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The exemption of tariffs on imported refined copper in the US will significantly change the global copper trade flow in the second half of the year, with copper resources shifting to non - US markets. The supply - demand fundamentals of Shanghai copper are expected to become looser [4]. - The zinc market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weak demand, with imports and processing fees rising, and downstream demand weakening [5]. - The aluminum industry chain is in a weak market sentiment. Aluminum, alumina, and recycled aluminum alloy are all recommended to be treated with a short - selling mindset [6]. - The tin price is suppressed by the correction of the non - ferrous sector, with weak fundamentals [7]. - The lead price is under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the driving force of the peak season and macro - orientation [8][9]. - The nickel market has an overall oversupply pattern, and the stainless steel market is affected by the black series and the weakness of nickel, with both supply and demand being weak [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous sector fluctuates with the profit - taking in the domestic anti - involution stage. The trade situation is gradually becoming clear, and the non - ferrous metals are in a weak adjustment stage. Key events this week include Sino - US trade negotiations, the Fed's interest rate decision, and important economic data releases [13][14][15]. - **Investment Recommendations for Each Metal** - **Copper**: The supply - demand fundamentals are expected to be loose. It is recommended to buy on dips, with a support range of 77,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [4][16]. - **Zinc**: Supply increases while demand is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 21,600 - 21,800 and a pressure range of 22,800 - 23,100 [5][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment is weak. Short - selling is recommended for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, with corresponding support and pressure ranges [6][18]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to hold short positions, with a support range of 250,000 - 255,000 and a pressure range of 270,000 - 290,000 [7][18]. - **Lead**: It is in a range - bound state. It is recommended to wait and see, with a support range of 16,600 - 16,800 and a pressure range of 17,200 - 17,400 [9][19]. - **Nickel**: The supply is in an oversupply pattern. It is recommended to go short on rallies, with a support range of 115,000 - 116,000 and a pressure range of 122,000 - 123,000 [10][19]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is in a weak supply - demand situation. It is recommended to be short - biased, with a support range of 12,300 - 12,400 and a pressure range of 12,800 - 13,000 [10][19]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review - **Futures Closing Prices and Price Changes**: Copper closed at 78,040 with a decline of 1.13%; zinc at 22,345 with a decline of 1.43%; aluminum at 20,510 with a decline of 0.56%; alumina at 3222 with a decline of 3.13%; tin at 265,290 with a decline of 0.96%; lead at 16,735 with a decline of 0.92%; nickel at 119,830 with a decline of 1.55%; stainless steel at 12,805 with a decline of 0.89%; and cast aluminum alloy at 19,950 with a decline of 0.60% [20][21]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The report provides the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector, including the net long - short position changes and the influence of different forces on various varieties [23]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market - The report presents the spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals, such as copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [24][26]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain - The report includes various charts related to the industry chain of each metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends, which help to understand the supply - demand relationship and market conditions of each metal [27][31][33]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage - The report provides charts on the arbitrage relationships of various non - ferrous metals, such as the ratio of domestic and foreign prices, basis, and spreads between different contracts [57][60][62]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options - The report includes charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals, such as historical volatility, implied volatility, trading volume, and open interest [74][75][77].