Core Insights - The private economy is identified as a driving force for high-quality development in Henan, with over 11 million private enterprises accounting for approximately 96% of the total, showing resilience and vitality in economic indicators [1][2] Economic Performance - In October, the industrial added value of private enterprises in Henan grew by 7.8%, surpassing the national growth rate of 5.7% [1] - From January to October, the province's private investment increased by 7.3%, outpacing the national average by 11.8 percentage points, and accounting for over 60% of fixed asset investment [1][2] Trade and Innovation - From January to October, the total import and export value of private enterprises reached 508.34 billion yuan, growing by 14.7%, with exports exceeding 350 billion yuan and increasing by 19.8% [2] - The number of high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs in the province surpassed 12,000 and 29,000 respectively, with private enterprises making up over 95% [2] Government Initiatives - The province has made progress in optimizing government services, with over 1.3 million business transactions processed through 33 initiatives aimed at efficiency [3] - A total of 99 documents violating market access policies were cleared, and 161 policies that treated enterprises unequally were amended or abolished [3] Future Directions - The government plans to focus on addressing challenges in the private economy by optimizing policies, enhancing mechanisms, and improving services [4] - New policies will target market barriers, promote fair competition, and support innovation and transformation [4]

Core Economic Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, exceeding the previous year's growth by 0.4 percentage points, indicating good progress towards the annual target of around 5% [12][24] - However, the growth rate showed a "front-high and back-low" trend, with the third quarter's growth slowing to 4.8% due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies [12][24] Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but the growth rate slowed to 3.5% in the third quarter, primarily due to the diminishing effect of the old-for-new policy and a continuous slowdown in residents' income growth [15][24] - Service consumption remained resilient, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in the first three quarters, outperforming goods retail growth of 4.6% [15][24] Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a significant drop to -6.2% in the third quarter, driven by weak performance in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investments [16][24] - Real estate investment saw a decline from -12.1% in the second quarter to -19.2% in the third quarter, remaining the largest drag on fixed asset investment growth [16][24] Export - Exports grew by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a slight increase to 6.5% in the third quarter, supported by non-US markets and key products like integrated circuits, electric vehicles, and lithium batteries [17][24] - The easing of US-China trade tensions, including a 10% reduction in average tariffs on Chinese goods, is expected to positively impact foreign trade performance and business expectations in the fourth quarter [25][24] Policy and External Environment - Domestic policies are focused on stabilizing demand, with fiscal measures including the issuance of 500 billion yuan in policy financial tools and an additional 500 billion yuan in local government debt quotas to support project construction and debt repayment [12][24] - Monetary policy has resumed bond purchase operations, emphasizing the use of structural tools to support the economy [20][24] Outlook for Q4 - Economic recovery is anticipated in the fourth quarter, supported by coordinated policy efforts and resilient export performance, making it likely to achieve the annual growth target of around 5% [4][25] - However, potential pressures from high base effects, insufficient internal consumption momentum, and high real estate inventory levels should be monitored [5][24]

Core Viewpoint - The modernization of the industrial system is the material and technical foundation for China's modernization, emphasizing the importance of a robust real economy and a modernized industrial system as key to building a socialist modernized strong country [1][2][3]. Group 1: Importance of Modern Industrial System - The establishment and development of any social economic system are supported by a corresponding material foundation, with a modern industrial system being crucial for modernization [2]. - Successful modernization in various countries has been linked to the process of industrial system modernization, which provides a strong material basis for economic development [2]. - The lack of a modern industrial system in some developing countries has led to insufficient and unsustainable modernization [2]. Group 2: Strategic Tasks and Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" prioritizes the construction of a modern industrial system and the consolidation of the real economy as the first strategic task [1]. - The construction of a modern industrial system is a long-term and complex systemic project that requires a focus on the real economy and the continuous upgrading of traditional industries alongside the cultivation of emerging industries [4][12]. Group 3: Key Directions for Development - The modernization of the industrial system should focus on three main directions: intelligent, green, and integrated development [5][7][8]. - Intelligent development involves deep transformation across the entire production chain, utilizing data and AI technologies to create a smart industrial ecosystem [6]. - Green transformation aims to integrate low-carbon and circular economy principles throughout the industrial process, emphasizing the importance of green technology innovation [7]. Group 4: Enhancing Traditional Industries - Traditional industries play a crucial role in maintaining a reasonable proportion of manufacturing and ensuring the integrity of the industrial system [12]. - The optimization and upgrading of traditional industries are essential to avoid the structural dilemmas faced by developed countries due to deindustrialization [12]. - New technologies, particularly digital and green technologies, are reshaping traditional production models and development paths [12]. Group 5: Fostering New and Future Industries - The intersection of the new technological revolution and industrial transformation presents significant opportunities for building a modern industrial system [13]. - China has made notable advancements in sectors like renewable energy, establishing competitive supply chains and leading in technology innovation [13]. - Future industries driven by cutting-edge technologies require a robust mechanism for disruptive innovation and risk-sharing [13]. Group 6: Service Industry Development - The service industry is a vital component of the modern industrial system, with its share of GDP expected to increase as industrialization progresses [14]. - Enhancing the quality and efficiency of the service industry can drive industrial transformation and meet the evolving needs of society [14]. - There is significant potential for growth in China's service sector, particularly in high-end and quality service offerings [14]. Group 7: Infrastructure Development - A modernized infrastructure system is essential for the efficient operation of the industrial system, influencing resource allocation and economic efficiency [15][16]. - China has made substantial progress in infrastructure development, including extensive transportation networks and digital infrastructure [16]. - Addressing existing imbalances and enhancing the adaptability of infrastructure is crucial for supporting the modernization of the industrial system [16].

证券研究报告 固收定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ——2025 年 10 月经济数据点评 投资要点： 证券分析师 廖志明 SAC：S1350524100002 liaozhiming@huayuanstock.com 马赫 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 mahe@huayuanstock.com "三驾马车"承压，主要经济指标走弱 核心观点：从 10 月数据上看，支撑 GDP 的"三驾马车"消费、投资和净出口压力 增大，短期经济增长或面临一定的挑战，考虑到今年前三季度经济表现较好，完成 25 年总量+5%的经济增长目标压力不大。10 月社零同比+2.9%，增速连续五个月回 落。10 月进出口总值同比较上月大幅下滑，出口同比-0.8%，较上月-9.2pct，对欧 盟出口较上月大幅下降 13.3pct。1-10 月固投完成额负增长（yoy-1.7%）、基建（不 含电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业，下同）累计同比亦负增长（yoy-0.1%）与 房地产开发投资持续探底（yoy-14.7%）凸显传统增长模式乏力。未来半年政策利 率下调与增量工具落地或成关键支撑 ...

德国央行表示，随着美国关税引发的动荡逐渐消退，德国经济可能在今年最后三个月重回增长轨道。该 行在周三发布的月度报告中指出，2025年初出口激增，随后在后续数月转为拖累因素，预计出口和工业 将在"第四季度趋于稳定"。报告称，服务业也将支撑经济活动，"尽管未必来自消费相关领域"。德国央 行表示，这可能使得整体产出"小幅增长"。 ...

Core Insights - BOSS Zhipin reported steady growth in revenue, profit, and user base in Q3 2025, driven by a recovering recruitment market and increased penetration in blue-collar and lower-tier cities [2][3][12] - The company emphasized the importance of operational efficiency and technological investment, which have begun to yield positive results [2][11] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, BOSS Zhipin achieved revenue of 2.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.2% [2] - The number of paid enterprise clients reached 6.8 million, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year growth [2] - Net profit for Q3 2025 rose to 775 million yuan, supported by a reduction in sales and marketing expenses by 24.6% [12] Market Trends - Recruitment demand has shown a steady increase, with the number of new job postings rising by 25% year-on-year in Q3 [2][3] - Blue-collar income growth continues to lead, with manufacturing showing the highest growth rate among sectors [3] AI Integration - The company has accelerated the integration of AI technologies in recruitment processes, enhancing efficiency in matching and communication [9][10] - AI tools, such as the job-seeking assistant and interview simulation tools, have seen increased usage, contributing to higher engagement rates among users [9] User Engagement - The average monthly active user count reached 63.8 million, a 10% year-on-year increase [12] - The platform's user base in the blue-collar segment has grown significantly, with a notable "snowball effect" enhancing its competitive edge [6] Safety and Governance - BOSS Zhipin has strengthened its safety governance framework, implementing an "AI + human" dual governance system to address risks such as recruitment fraud and harassment [13] - The company has actively collaborated with law enforcement, assisting in the resolution of 58 cases and the arrest of 607 suspects this year [13]

Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first ten months of 2023, Yunnan's new energy battery industry saw a significant increase in value added, growing by 76.7% year-on-year [1] - The overall industrial value added in Yunnan increased by 3.6% year-on-year, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 8.4%, 3.9%, and 1.6% respectively [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods in Yunnan reached 1,059.77 billion yuan, marking a 3.5% year-on-year growth [1] Group 2: Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Yunnan decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, with the primary industry increasing by 5.6%, while the secondary and tertiary industries saw declines of 0.5% and 1.3% respectively [1] - The province is focusing on project planning, reserve, and attracting investment to stabilize real estate development and stimulate private investment [1] Group 3: Consumer Prices and Services - From January to October, the consumer price index (CPI) in Yunnan showed a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%, while in October, it remained flat year-on-year and increased by 0.1% month-on-month [2] - The service sector in Yunnan achieved an operating income of 284.41 billion yuan from January to September, reflecting a 6.6% year-on-year growth [2] Group 4: Policy and Future Outlook - Yunnan's economic operation is generally stable, with ongoing efforts in transformation and upgrading, although there are concerns about weak effective demand and the need for structural adjustments [2] - The province aims to expand effective demand comprehensively and stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations through proactive macro policies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's modernization, focusing on restructuring economic growth logic, shifting from optimizing traditional industries to "extraordinary" technological breakthroughs, and emphasizing quality over quantity in strategic priorities [5][6]. Group 1: Economic Growth Logic - The plan reflects a shift in industrial policy from enhancing traditional industries to prioritizing technological advancements, aiming to achieve the long-term goal of modernization by 2035 [6][10]. - The economic growth baseline is set to achieve a nominal GDP growth rate of around 4% annually from 2025 to 2035 to double the economic output compared to 2020 [9][10]. Group 2: Industrial Strategy - The strategy emphasizes the transformation of traditional industries as a priority, with a focus on upgrading sectors like mining, metallurgy, and chemicals to enhance global competitiveness [10][11]. - Four strategic emerging industries (new energy, new materials, aerospace, low-altitude economy) and six future industries (quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen and nuclear fusion energy, brain-computer interfaces, embodied intelligence, sixth-generation mobile communication) are outlined for development [10][11]. Group 3: Reform and Governance - The plan highlights fiscal and financial reforms as key measures to enhance macroeconomic governance, aiming to unlock growth potential through systemic reforms [12][13]. - Over 300 reform tasks are set to be completed by 2029, focusing on market-oriented reforms, nurturing new productive forces, and improving social welfare systems [13][14]. Group 4: Service Sector Development - The service sector is identified as having significant growth potential, with a consumption gap of nearly 3 trillion yuan compared to developed countries [12]. - Systematic solutions are proposed to stimulate consumption and investment, including increasing public service spending and enhancing the supply of quality consumer goods [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes significantly increasing the resident consumption rate as a primary goal, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption through various new proposals [1]. Group 1: Economic Growth and Consumption - The reasonable growth range for China's economy during the "15th Five-Year Plan" is estimated to be between 4.5% and 5.5%, considering the current economic scale and potential growth rate [2][3]. - The plan highlights the need for a flexible approach to economic growth, with a lower limit to ensure employment and a higher limit to prevent inflation and promote structural adjustments [3]. Group 2: Enhancing Resident Consumption Rate - To address the low resident consumption rate, solutions should be sought from both the income and supply sides, including expanding the middle-income group and increasing public service spending [3][4]. - Three key actions are necessary to enhance resident consumption: increasing the share of new consumption types, enriching consumption scenarios, and ensuring the implementation of national policies to stimulate consumption [4]. Group 3: Real Estate and Automotive Markets - The plan proposes removing unreasonable restrictions on automotive and housing consumption, as both sectors have significant economic impacts and can stimulate related industries [5][6]. - The real estate market is expected to see slight growth over the next five years, with its stability being crucial for consumer confidence and financial system stability [7]. Group 4: Role of Consumption, Investment, and Exports - Consumption is projected to play a dual role as both a "ballast" and a "main engine" for economic growth, with expectations that its contribution to GDP growth will exceed 60% [12][13]. - Investment will shift focus from total volume to structural optimization, supporting high-quality development in sectors like high-end manufacturing and technology [13]. - Exports will serve as a stabilizer, maintaining their importance due to China's comprehensive industrial system, despite potential fluctuations [12][14]. Group 5: Service Industry and Market Opening - The emphasis on expanding the service industry as a key area for market opening indicates a strategic shift towards enhancing service sector competitiveness and internationalization [20][21]. - The growing middle-income group and the increasing share of services in GDP highlight the need for improved service quality and management practices to meet consumer demands [21].

Group 1 - The major shareholder, Xinjiang State-owned Assets Investment and Operation Co., Ltd., holds approximately 12.48 million shares of De Xin Technology, accounting for 5.35% of the total share capital [1] - The shareholder plans to reduce its holdings by up to 2.34 million shares (1% of total share capital) within three months, starting 15 trading days after the announcement [1] - The revenue composition for De Xin Technology in 2024 is as follows: manufacturing accounts for 80.17%, services for 9.49%, trade for 6.0%, and other businesses for 4.34% [1] Group 2 - The current market capitalization of De Xin Technology is 5.6 billion yuan [2]