万事达卡经济研究所研究报告指出，2026年中国消费将呈现出显著的强化趋势，"新消费"品类——如美 容健康、新兴生活方式以及由"粉丝经济"驱动的消费热潮有望持续扩容。特别是消费者从追求"单纯低 价"转向拥抱"精明消费"的变革趋势，正重塑中国零售业与数字渠道的生态。 德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕表示，2026年消费将继续成为中国经济增长的主引擎，预计将为 GDP贡献2.8个百分点，商品消费或将录得温和增长，服务消费亦将在政策支持下持续改善。 中新社上海1月1日电 (记者 姜煜)新年伊始，多家外资机构展望2026年中国经济发展前景时不约而同指 出：消费仍是主引擎，其在中国GDP中的占比将继续提升。 据威灵顿投资管理宏观策略师郁嘉言分析，2025年，中国消费的复苏得益于强有力的财政支持，一个可 喜的迹象是，消费结构正在由商品转向服务，消费者更愿意把钱花在休闲旅游、外出就餐、个人兴趣爱 好及生活方式等体验和享受型消费方面。与此同时，部分细分领域出现高端化趋势，消费者更青睐产品 的设计与品质，而非价格。这些都是在消费信心回升以及商品供给充裕背景下出现的新型消费升级形 态。 "2026年，消费在中国GDP中的占比将继续 ...

制造业结构方面呈现积极变化，四大重点行业PMI均高于上月。高技术制造业PMI为52.5%，较上 月上升2.4个百分点，行业增长态势向好。装备制造业和消费品行业PMI均为50.4%，分别比上月上升 0.6个和1个百分点，双双升至扩张区间。高耗能行业PMI为48.9%，比上月上升0.5个百分点，景气水平 继续回升。 从企业规模看，大型企业PMI为50.8%，较上月上升1.5个百分点，在连续2个月运行在50%以下后 回到扩张区间，其中生产指数和新订单指数都较上月上升超过2个百分点至52%以上。中型企业PMI为 49.8%，较上月上升0.9个百分点，创年内次高点，其中生产指数较上月上升1.2个百分点至接近52%的 水平，新订单指数较上月上升2.1个百分点至接近50%的水平，显示中型企业需求持稳运行，生产加快 扩张。 经济日报记者 熊 丽 国家统计局服务业调查中心、中国物流与采购联合会发布的数据显示，2025年12月份，制造业采 购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为50.1%、50.2%和50.7%，比上月上升 0.9个、0.7个和1个百分点。国家统计局服务业调查中心首席统计师霍丽慧表示，三大指数 ...

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 事件： 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。 12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分点至 50.1%，时隔9个月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较11月回升1.7、1.6个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域PMI明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业12月PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业PMI却有回升。大类行业中，高技术、装备制造业PMI均有 改善，分别上行2.4、0.6个百分点至52.5%、50.4%。 支撑二：高频指标未跟踪到的部分消费行业PMI改善，尤其是受需求透支风险影响较小的领域。 12月汽车高频产销 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI has returned to the expansion zone for the first time since April, indicating a recovery in economic sentiment, driven by stable growth policies and resilient exports [2][4]. Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for December is reported at 50.1%, marking a significant increase and indicating expansion [2]. - The production index stands at 51.7%, up 1.7 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting accelerated production activities and improved market confidence [4]. - The new orders index has risen to 50.8%, indicating a recovery in market demand, particularly in sectors like food processing and textiles [5]. - Large enterprises' PMI has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.8%, up 1.5 percentage points from last month [5]. Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI is reported at 50.2%, showing improvement in the service sector, although the service PMI remains slightly below the expansion threshold at 49.7% [8]. - The construction sector has shown notable recovery, with the construction PMI rising to 52.8%, marking a return to expansion after five months [8]. - The business activity expectation index for the service sector is at 56.4%, indicating increased confidence among service enterprises regarding future market developments [8]. Group 3: Economic Policies and Outlook - The government is expected to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies, with a focus on balancing fiscal expansion and sustainable growth [3]. - The production and business activity expectation index has risen to 55.5%, reflecting enhanced confidence among manufacturing enterprises [7]. - The overall economic environment is supported by favorable external trade conditions and a strong global AI investment trend, contributing positively to exports [6].

Group 1: PMI Performance - December manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, marking an 8-month high and exceeding Bloomberg and Reuters' consensus estimate of 49.2%[2] - The PMI increase is characterized by strong structural certainty, although total economic uncertainty remains[2] - High-tech manufacturing PMI surged by 2.4 percentage points to 52.5%, indicating positive growth trends in the sector[7] Group 2: Demand and Production - New orders contributed 53% to the PMI increase, while production contributed 47%[7] - New orders index rose by 1.6 percentage points to 50.8%, and new export orders increased by 1.4 percentage points to 49.0%, reaching a new high since April[7] - Production index significantly improved by 1.7 percentage points to 51.7%, indicating strong expansion momentum[7] Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - Main raw material purchase price index slightly decreased to 53.1%, while the factory price index rose to 48.9%[7] - Raw material inventory index increased to 47.8%, and finished goods inventory index rose to 48.2%, reflecting synchronized supply and demand improvements[7] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sector - Non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, returning to expansion territory, primarily driven by a 3.2 percentage point rise in construction PMI to 52.8%[7] - The construction sector's improvement is attributed to favorable weather conditions and accelerated project progress, although funding and project availability remain concerns[7] Group 5: Future Outlook - The sustainability of the manufacturing PMI increase is uncertain, with potential risks in demand and external economic conditions[6] - The need for stable growth remains significant as 2026 marks the beginning of the "14th Five-Year Plan," indicating potential policy support to stabilize the economy[2]

Group 1: PMI Overview - In December, the manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1%, up from 49.2% in the previous month, while the non-manufacturing PMI increased to 50.2%, from 49.5%[2] - The December PMI's unexpected strength is attributed to multiple factors, including positive expectations from recent important meetings, easing trade frictions, and increased pre-holiday inventory demand[2] - The manufacturing PMI's month-on-month increase of 0.9 percentage points (pct) significantly exceeds the five-year average decline of 0.3 pct for the same period[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production index rose to 51.7% (+1.7 pct), returning above the threshold, while the new orders index increased to 50.8% (+1.6 pct), marking the first time since June that it is above the threshold[2] - The new export orders index also saw a notable increase, rising to 49.0% (+1.4 pct), matching the high point of March this year[2] - The price index showed divergence, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.1% (-0.5 pct) and the factory price index at 48.9% (+0.7 pct), indicating faster downstream replenishment compared to upstream[2] Group 3: Sector Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI rose to 52.5% (+2.4 pct), significantly above the overall level, driving the increase in the overall manufacturing PMI[2] - Consumer goods PMI reached 50.4% (+1.0 pct), slightly higher than the overall PMI increase, supported by strong performance in sectors like computer communication and textile manufacturing[2] - The construction PMI was notably strong at 52.8% (+3.2 pct), outperforming seasonal expectations due to favorable weather conditions and pre-holiday construction activity[3]

2025 年 12 月 31 日 制造业 PMI 重返扩张区间 分析师：罗云峰 S1050524060001 luoyf2@cfsc.com.cn 分析师：杨斐然 S1050524070001 yangfr@cfsc.com.cn —固定收益点评报告 12 月制造业 PMI 为 50.1，回升 0.9，4 月份以来首次升至扩 张区间；非制造业 PMI 为 50.2，环比回升 0.7。 投资要点 ▌ 制造业：景气度明显改善 生产指数大幅提升 1.7 至 51.7。新订单指数提升 1.6 至 50.8，其中新出口订单提升 1.4 至 49。企业生产经营活动积 极性明显提升：原材料库存回升 0.5 至 47.8；生产回升带动 采购量大幅回升 0.6 至 51.1，生产经营活动预期提升 2.4 至 55.5。从行业看，农副食品加工、纺织服装服饰、计算机通 信电子设备等行业产需均高于 53；非金属矿物制品、黑色金 属冶炼及压延加工等行业两个指数均低于临界点. 企业盈利边际改善。原材料购进价格下降 0.5，出厂价格指 数增长 0.7。 大型企业经营状况回升至荣枯线之上。大、中、小型企业 12 月 PMI 分别变动 1.5 ...

核心观点：新动能、消费品行业拉动12月PMI，化债挤出效应缓解、出口韧性也有支撑。 事件： 12月31日，国家统计局公布12月PMI指数，制造业PMI为50.1%、前值49.2%，非制造业PMI为50.2%、前值49.5%。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、屠强、耿佩璇 联系人 | 屠强、耿佩璇 12月高频指标转弱下，制造业PMI却明显回升。 12月以来，高炉开工、PTA开工、货运量等高频指标均有走弱；但制造业PMI较前月回升0.9个百分点至 50.1%，时隔9个月再次站上荣枯线。其中生产、新订单指数分别较11月回升1.7、1.6个百分点。 支撑一：新动能相关领域PMI明显改善，但缺乏相关高频指标，可持续性需要继续观察。 从行业来看，黑色压延、化学纤维、化学原料等传统行业12月PMI 均有回落，与高炉、PTA开工等回落表现一致。但缺乏开工指标跟踪的电气机械、医药等新兴行业PMI却有回升。大类行业中，高技术、装备制造业PMI均有 改善，分别上行2.4、0.6个百分点至52.5%、50.4%。 支撑二：高频指标未跟踪到的部分消费行业PMI改善，尤其是受需求透支风险影响较小的领域。 12月汽车高频产销 ...

宏观月度报告 中国 PMI 评论报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 亮眼数据迎新年 — 12 月中国 PMI 评论 研究员：王鹏 期货从业证号：F03127257 投资咨询资格编号：Z0020170 第一部分 中国制造业和非制造业 PMI 数据表格回顾】 | | | | | | | | | | | 中国制造业PMI及分项 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标名称 | 制造业PMI | 生产 | | 新订单 | | 新出口订单 | 在手订单 | | 产成品库存 | 采购量 | 进口 | | 出厂价格 | | 主要原材料购进价格 | 原材料库存 | 从业人员 | 供货商配送时间生产经营活动预期 | | | 2025-12 | | 50.1 | 51.7 | | 50.8 | 4 9 | | 4 6 | 48.2 | | 51.1 | 4 7 | | 48.9 ...

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 二是采购量增加、出厂价反弹、预期改善。制造业采购量反弹 1.6 个百分点至 51.1%，原材料库存增 0.5 个 百分点至 47.8%，而原材料购进价回调 0.5 个百分点至 53.1%，反映企业趁着价格涨幅收窄而增加采购、库存降 幅也相应收窄。出厂价反弹 0.7 个百分点至 48.9%，为最近四个月高点。值得注意的是，生产经营预期大幅反弹 2.4 个百分点至 55.5%的高位，是最近 20 个月高点，指向企业对十五五开年预期乐观。 第二，建筑业大幅反弹。12 月建筑业商务活动指数反弹 3.2 个百分点至 52.8%，是下半年最高。统计局解 释主要是受部分南方省份近期气温偏高、以及两节临近企业抢抓施工进度等因素带动。新订单也反弹 1.3 个百分 点至 47.4%，是今年初以来最高，但仍低于荣枯线。而建筑业从业人员分项下跌 0.8 个百分点至 41.0%。从订单 和从业人员来看，建筑业还有修复空间。 第三，服务业也在反弹，但幅度小于制造业和建筑业。12 月服务业 PMI 反弹 0.2 个百分点至 49.7%，连续 第二个月低于 50%。新订单反弹 1.8 个百分点至 47.3%，表现 ...