Workflow
服务业
icon
Search documents
中国2025年7月经济数据图景:7月经济稳中有进,地产投资承压
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 05:20
Report Title - 7-month economic progress with real estate investment under pressure - A panorama of China's economic data in July 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In the first half of the year, the economy grew steadily. In July, industrial growth continued, with the added value of large-scale industries increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year in July (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline [2]. - Domestic demand still needs improvement, and external uncertainties are increasing. In July, the economy advanced steadily. The "anti-involution" optimized the supply chain and accelerated industrial upgrading. Service consumption supported the overall consumer market. Externally, trade protectionism and geopolitical risks intertwined, and continuous vigilance was needed for the impact of commodity supply chain disruptions and new US tariff policies on the second half of the year [4]. Summary by Directory Macro Events - On August 15, National Bureau of Statistics data showed that in July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with production and demand continuing [6]. Growth: Steady Growth - In July, industrial growth continued. The added value of large-scale industries increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year-on-year. By category, the mining industry increased by 5.0% year-on-year, manufacturing by 6.2%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water by 3.3%. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year-on-year, and the high-tech manufacturing industry by 9.3%, 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large-scale industries respectively [10]. Inflation: Month-on-Month Improvement - In July 2025, the PPI decreased by 3.6% year-on-year (unchanged from the previous month) and 0.2% month-on-month (narrowed by 0.2% compared to the previous month). The purchase price decreased by 4.5% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month. From January to July, the PPI decreased by 2.9% cumulatively. The CPI remained flat year-on-year in July (0.1% in June) and increased by 0.4% month-on-month ( -0.1% in June), ending the consecutive month-on-month decline. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, with the increase expanding for three consecutive months, reaching a new high since March 2024 [19][39]. Investment: Marginal Slowdown - From January to July 2025, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year (2.8% previously), and the month-on-month decline continued ( -0.63% in July). The investment growth rate of the secondary industry slowed down to 8.9% (manufacturing investment +6.2%), and the investment in the tertiary industry decreased by 2.3% (more affected by real estate) [53]. Production: Downstream Improvement - In the first half of 2025, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.4% year-on-year. The manufacturing industry increased by 7.0%. The downstream demand improved significantly, but the weakness of upstream raw material industries and export pressure were constraints [59]. Consumption: Structural Differentiation - In July 2025, the growth rate of the consumer market slowed down. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.5% year-on-year (5.0% previously). The single - month retail sales in July increased by only 3.7% year-on-year, reaching a new low for the year. Service consumption showed resilience, while the growth of online channels slowed down [69]. Real Estate: Investment Under Pressure - From January to July, the national real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.8% compared to January - June. The sales side remained weak, but policy - driven structural optimization accelerated inventory reduction [78].
宏观周度观察:美俄短期风险下降,市场聚焦定价美联储降息幅度-20250818
Guo Lian Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 03:06
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [3][4][13]. - China's "dual discount interest" policy has been implemented to boost domestic demand, and the probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. - China's economic data in July was affected by multiple factors, but it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [8][10][12]. - In the short - term, geopolitical risk premiums have temporarily ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. Summary by Directory 1. This Week's Macroeconomic Observation 1.1 Impact of Tariffs on Inflation and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - US CPI in July was slightly lower than expected, but core CPI reached a new high for the second time this year. PPI exceeded expectations, with a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, the highest since February [3]. - The impact of tariffs on commodity prices is gradually emerging, and the upward pressure on commodity inflation will continue to accumulate. The price of the service industry in July significantly contributed to inflation, and the pressure on CPI to rise in the coming months is increasing [3][4]. - Although inflation data shows signs of an uptick, the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September. The market is focusing on pricing the rate cut amplitude, and inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [4]. 1.2 Implementation of the "Dual Discount Interest" Policy to Expand Domestic Demand - The "dual discount interest" policy of personal consumer loan discount interest and service industry business entity loan discount interest has been launched, which forms a synergy to stimulate consumption with other policies. It helps improve the efficiency of fiscal funds [5]. - In the future, the policy may continue to explore the synergy between fiscal funds and financial resources, and the weight of structural tools and special fiscal policies may increase. The probability of a domestic interest rate cut in the third quarter has further decreased [5][6]. 1.3 China's Economic Situation in July - China's economic data in July showed a contraction in both supply and demand, with a more obvious slowdown in domestic demand. Consumption recovery momentum weakened marginally, investment remained weak, and financial data also showed slow demand - side repair [8][10][11]. - Although China's economy is affected by multiple temporary factors in the short - term, it is still likely to achieve the annual economic growth target of 5% [12]. 1.4 Next Week's Key Points - The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, and the market is pricing the rate cut amplitude. Inflation pressure will limit the scope of this rate cut [13]. - The short - term geopolitical risk premium from the US - Russia summit has ended, but there are still persistent impacts. A - shares are in a bull market pattern, but the index may experience short - term corrections. Bond prices will be in a low - level shock state [15][16]. 2. Domestic Key Events and Important Economic Data - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to maintain liquidity, promote reasonable price increases, and release consumption potential. This week, the central bank achieved a net withdrawal of 4149 billion yuan [17]. - The "dual discount interest" policy has been introduced, with a 1 - percentage - point annual discount interest rate. The personal consumer loan discount interest policy has a cumulative discount interest cap of 3000 yuan per borrower, and the service industry business entity loan discount interest policy has a maximum loan scale of 1 million yuan per household [17]. - China's deflation pressure eased slightly in July. CPI was flat year - on - year, PPI was negative for 34 consecutive months, but the month - on - month decline narrowed. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, the highest in 17 months [17]. - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The "national subsidy" funds of 138 billion yuan were issued, and the automobile sales volume increased by 14.7% year - on - year [17][18]. - From January to July, national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year - on - year, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year - on - year. The sales prices of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed overall [18]. - China and the US suspended the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days. As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6% year - on - year, and M0 increased by 11.8% year - on - year [18]. 3. Overseas Key Events and Important Economic Data - In the US, the PPI in July increased significantly, with a 3.3% year - on - year increase. CPI was flat compared to the previous month, slightly lower than expected, while core CPI reached a five - month high, higher than expected [19]. - After the release of the US CPI data, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September rose to 90.1%. Trump nominated E·J·Anthony as the next director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics and expanded the list of candidates for the Fed chairman [19]. - The EU plans to formulate the 19th round of sanctions against Russia and provide more military assistance to Ukraine. The Japanese central bank is under pressure to abandon an inflation indicator to pave the way for an interest rate hike [19]. - Trump said he would not impose tariffs on gold. The US Treasury Secretary said that the trade team will meet with China in the next two or three months. The US - Russia summit has not reached an agreement but is close [20]. 4. Next Week's Key Data/Events - On August 18, the US will release the NAHB housing market index for August. - On August 20, China will release the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) for August, and the eurozone will release the CPI and core CPI year - on - year and month - on - month for July, as well as the preliminary PMI values for August. - On August 21, the US will release the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16, the Markit manufacturing, service, and composite PMI preliminary values for August, and the year - on - year total of existing home sales in July. - From August 22 to 23, the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting will be held (to be determined). [21]
加纳就业市场劳动力需求疲软
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-08-16 13:31
Core Insights - The World Bank highlights that weak labor demand in Ghana's production sector is a major challenge for the job market [1] - Ghana has experienced minimal structural transformation over the past decade, remaining predominantly reliant on agricultural labor [1] - Employment opportunities in high-productivity sectors such as manufacturing and services are significantly limited, forcing many workers into low-productivity and low-income jobs [1] - There is a shortage of middle-level job opportunities, exacerbated by factors such as inefficient regulation, trade barriers, and inadequate infrastructure [1]
经济数据点评:7月经济,弱复苏下的结构性压力
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-08-16 09:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic data in July 2025 was generally below expectations, with the three major indicators declining in resonance, showing a weak recovery pattern of "stable industrial production, under - expected consumption, and intensified investment differentiation", indicating insufficient domestic effective demand [1][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data include seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy [2][8] - For the bond market, the economic data in July confirmed the fundamental main line of "weak demand + low inflation", and the risk of a trend - based correction in the bond market was generally controllable. In the short term, attention should be paid to the changes in risk - preference assets such as equities and commodities, as well as the effect of policies like fiscal interest subsidies on private - sector financing demand [2][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 7 - month Economic Data: Structural Pressures under Weak Recovery - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales was 3.7%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%. Among them, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, that of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) was 3.2%, and that of manufacturing investment was 6.2% [3][7] - The reasons for the under - expected economic data are seasonal factors, the weakening marginal effect of policy dividends, the failure of production - side repair to be effectively transmitted to the demand side, and the continued drag of the real estate sector on the economy. The resilience of external demand in July exceeded expectations, but there was still uncertainty in external demand in the second half of the year [2][8][9] 3.2 Industrial Production Maintains Resilience, High - tech Chain Continues to Lead - In July, industrial production still had resilience. The year - on - year growth rate of added value of large - scale industries was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, and the cumulative growth from January to July was 6.3%. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in July was 5.8%, slightly down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [3][11] - In terms of industries, the year - on - year growth rates of the ferrous metal processing and transportation equipment industries in July increased significantly compared with the previous month, while those of the automobile, metal products, and food industries decreased. The added value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 8.4% year - on - year, and that of the high - tech manufacturing industry increased by 9.3% year - on - year, respectively 2.7 and 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall large - scale industrial added value [15] - In terms of specific products, the output growth rates of emerging products such as 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles were remarkable, with year - on - year growth rates of 24.2%, 24.0%, and 17.1% respectively [15] 3.3 Consumption Growth Slows, Policy Dividend Effect Weakens Marginally - In July, the growth rate of social retail sales slowed down. The total retail sales of social consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month, the lowest increase this year and lower than market expectations [17] - On one hand, the driving effect of subsidy policies weakened. The year - on - year growth rates of home appliances, automobiles, furniture, and cultural office supplies supported by policies declined significantly compared with the previous month, and the year - on - year growth rate of automobiles turned negative. On the other hand, the weak catering consumption reflected insufficient consumer confidence. The year - on - year growth rate of catering revenue above the quota increased slightly to 1.1%, still at a relatively low level this year [4][20] - Recently, the Ministry of Finance and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", with the central finance bearing 90%. The effect of this policy on credit scale and social retail sales growth remains to be observed [4][22] 3.4 Manufacturing Stabilizes, Infrastructure Supports, Real Estate Hits Bottom - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June. The investment structure showed a three - track operation pattern of "manufacturing stabilization, infrastructure support, and real estate drag" [23] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of manufacturing investment was 6.2%. The "Two New" work promoted the rapid growth of equipment purchase investment. From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of investment in equipment, tools, and utensils was 15.2%, 13.6 percentage points higher than the overall investment. However, in the short term, corporate investment motivation might decline, and the demand for entity credit was still insufficient [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 3.2%. The construction progress of major traditional infrastructure projects remained relatively fast, and the growth rate of infrastructure investment was expected to play a "ballast stone" role in the third quarter. However, the high - temperature and rainy weather in July affected outdoor construction and dragged down the growth rate of infrastructure investment [25][26] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate investment was - 12.0%, continuing to be deeply adjusted. The decline in real estate sales area and sales volume widened. In the second half of the year, real estate relaxation policies still needed to be actively implemented, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering housing loan interest rates, reducing down - payment ratios, and increasing real estate acquisitions [26][27]
2025年7月美国零售数据点评:美国消费增速趋缓,支持美联储年内降息
EBSCN· 2025-08-16 07:47
Retail Data Overview - In July 2025, U.S. retail sales increased by 0.5% month-on-month, matching expectations, but down from a revised 0.9% in June[2] - Core retail sales (excluding automobiles and gasoline) rose by 0.3% month-on-month, also below the previous value of 0.8%[2] Economic Implications - The decline in July retail sales indicates a weakening consumer sentiment, with year-on-year growth dropping from 4.4% in June to 3.9% in July, marking the second-lowest value since March 2025[7] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July saw a significant increase to 3.3% year-on-year, up from 2.3%, suggesting that businesses are passing on tariff costs to consumers, which may further dampen consumer spending[7] Interest Rate Outlook - The decline in retail sales and weak employment data suggest a continued downward trend in the U.S. economy, increasing the likelihood of the Federal Reserve restarting interest rate cuts in the second half of 2025[8] - Market expectations indicate a 92.1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September 2025, with a total of two cuts anticipated for the year[10] Sector Performance - In July, durable goods such as automobiles (+1.6%) and furniture (+1.4%) showed strong performance, while non-durable goods like groceries (-1.7%) and electronics (-0.6%) declined[9] - Service consumption, particularly in restaurants and bars, decreased by 0.4%, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns[10]
国际锐评丨这份成绩单让世界有理由“看多”中国
Economic Performance - China's economy is showing stable growth with key indicators reflecting resilience and vitality, such as a 1.6% year-on-year increase in fixed asset investment and a 5.9% rise in the service sector production index from January to July [1] - The retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% year-on-year during the same period, indicating a strong consumer market [4] Trade and External Relations - In the first seven months, China's goods trade imports and exports grew by 3.5%, with July imports rising by 4.8%, marking a recovery trend despite external pressures like the US tariff war [3] - China has approved 183 Brazilian coffee exporters for a five-year sales license, showcasing its commitment to opening up trade [3] Policy and Innovation - The Chinese government has implemented proactive macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth, with equipment manufacturing value added increasing by 9.9% from January to July [4] - High-tech manufacturing value added grew at a rate 3.6 percentage points faster than the overall industrial growth in July, highlighting the integration of technological and industrial innovation [5] Foreign Investment and Market Sentiment - The International Monetary Fund has raised its 2025 economic growth forecast for China to 4.8%, driven by domestic demand, exports, and innovation [7] - Foreign interest in Chinese assets is at a high, with institutions like Deutsche Bank and Swiss asset management firms expressing bullish views on Chinese investments [7]
21社论丨发力国内需求,巩固经济回升向好势头
21世纪经济报道· 2025-08-16 03:56
Economic Overview - The national economy shows a steady development trend, with a need for macro policies to effectively release domestic demand potential and promote dual circulation [1][2] - In July, exports increased by 7.2% year-on-year, surpassing the previous value of 5.9%, while social retail sales grew by 3.7%, down from 4.8% in June [1][2] - Fixed asset investment from January to July grew by 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, with manufacturing, infrastructure, and real estate investments showing a slowdown [1][2] Industrial Performance - In July, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.7% year-on-year, lower than the previous value of 6.8%, influenced by slowing investment and consumption growth [2] - The producer price index for industrial producers fell by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.6% [2] Consumption and Policy Measures - Starting in August, measures to expand consumption include the introduction of childcare subsidies and the exemption of certain education fees, aimed at boosting consumer spending [3][4] - The third batch of 690 billion yuan in central fiscal consumption subsidies will be implemented, with a fourth batch expected to continue until the end of the year, supporting retail growth [2][3] Challenges and Future Outlook - The real estate sector and local infrastructure investment present ongoing challenges, requiring time to address accumulated issues [3][4] - Short-term factors such as extreme weather and adjustments in consumption subsidies have impacted July's economic data, but the introduction of macroeconomic policies in August is expected to promote effective investment and enhance domestic demand [4]
7月经济:“供强需弱”延续(申万宏观·赵伟团队)
赵伟宏观探索· 2025-08-16 02:51
Core Viewpoints - Consumption and investment data have significantly weakened, but industrial production remains relatively resilient [3][88] - The economic indicators for July reflect some mid-term risks, but policies are being intensified, suggesting that economic growth will remain within a reasonable range in the second half of the year [5][90] Consumption - The social retail sales (社零) in July grew by 3.7%, lower than the expected 4.9% and previous value of 4.8%. The decline is attributed to the slow disbursement of national subsidy funds, particularly affecting "old-for-new" products [2][9] - Service consumption showed relative stability, with restaurant income slightly improving to 1.1% and cumulative service retail sales maintaining a high level at 5.2% year-on-year [3][88] - Categories such as furniture and home appliances saw significant declines in growth rates, with furniture down by 8.1 percentage points to 20.6% and home appliances down by 3.7 percentage points to 28.7% [3][9] Investment - Fixed asset investment in July fell sharply, reflecting short-term weather disturbances and mid-term impacts such as declining investment prices and a reduction in real estate projects. The monthly year-on-year decline was 4.6 percentage points to -4.7%, marking the lowest level since Q1 2020 [4][13] - The construction sector, particularly outdoor projects, was significantly affected by extreme weather, leading to a more substantial decline in infrastructure and real estate investments compared to overall fixed investment [4][13] - Manufacturing investment also saw a notable decline, with equipment purchase investment growth dropping by 11.3 percentage points to 6% [4][13] Real Estate - Real estate sales continued to decline in July, with corporate financing weakening and a lagging impact from reduced projects. The growth rate of corporate credit financing fell sharply by 13.5 percentage points to -15.8%, the lowest in two years [4][89] - New construction and completion areas also saw significant declines, with new starts down by 6% to -15.4% and completion areas down by 27.7% to -29.4% [4][89] - The average down payment ratio for home purchases decreased to 68.1%, indicating a shift in market dynamics [4][89] Production - Despite significant weaknesses in consumption and investment, industrial production maintained relative resilience, primarily due to improvements in export-related production chains. The industrial added value in July decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 5.7% year-on-year, but still remained at a high level [4][33] - Strong performance was noted in industries such as black metal rolling (8.6%), transportation equipment (13.7%), and general equipment (8.4%), while sectors like metal products and electrical machinery faced declines due to equipment updates and internal competition [4][33] Summary - The economic landscape in July continued to show weak domestic demand and strong external demand. Although short-term factors significantly influenced July's data, there is potential for further declines in manufacturing and real estate investments in the second half of the year. It remains crucial to enhance service and infrastructure investments and stabilize consumer demand [5][90]
消费贷贴息“国补”出炉,沪指两次突破3700点丨一周热点回顾
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-08-16 02:48
Group 1: Consumer Loan Subsidy Policy - The central government has introduced a subsidy policy for personal consumer loans and service industry loans, referred to as "national subsidy" in the consumer loan sector [2][3] - The subsidy rate is set at 1 percentage point for both personal consumer loans and service industry loans, aimed at reducing credit costs for residents and businesses [2][3] - The policy targets consumption in key areas such as home appliances, automobiles, education, and healthcare, with specific conditions for loans to service industry entities [2][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, both showing a decline compared to June [4] - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6%, indicating a slowdown in growth compared to the first half of the year [4] - The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted external challenges such as trade protectionism and extreme weather affecting economic performance [4] Group 3: Social Financing and Monetary Supply - As of the end of July, the total social financing scale reached 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9% [5] - The increase in bond financing has significantly contributed to the growth of social financing, with government bond net financing up by 4.88 trillion yuan year-on-year [5] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, while M1 increased by 5.6%, indicating improved liquidity and efficiency in the financial system [5][6] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3700-point mark, reaching a high of 3704.77 points, marking a significant recovery in the A-share market [7] - The number of new stock accounts opened in July surged by 71% year-on-year, reflecting increased investor enthusiasm [7] - Analysts suggest that the upward momentum in the stock market is supported by clear policy backing and the influx of new capital [7] Group 5: Trade Relations - The U.S. and China have agreed to suspend the implementation of 24% tariffs for 90 days, while retaining 10% tariffs on certain goods [8] - This agreement follows a series of trade talks aimed at reducing tensions and enhancing cooperation between the two nations [8] - The ongoing discussions indicate a willingness to engage in dialogue to resolve trade issues, although challenges remain [8] Group 6: Healthcare Policy - The National Healthcare Security Administration has published a list of drugs that passed the preliminary review for inclusion in the national medical insurance and commercial insurance innovation drug directories [9] - A total of 534 drugs were approved for the basic medical insurance directory, while 121 drugs were approved for the commercial insurance innovation directory [9][10] - The introduction of the commercial insurance innovation drug directory aims to support high-value innovative drugs and facilitate their market entry [10] Group 7: Taxation Policy - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration have released a draft for public consultation regarding the implementation of the Value-Added Tax Law, set to take effect on January 1, 2026 [11][12] - The draft aims to clarify regulations and enhance the operability of the tax system, although expectations for loan interest to be tax-deductible were not met [11][12] - The implementation of the VAT law is seen as a crucial step in establishing a comprehensive legal framework for taxation in China [12]
7月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.7% 宏观政策显效 经济稳中有进
Economic Overview - In July, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year. From January to July, fixed asset investment rose by 1.6% year-on-year [1] - The macro policies have shown effectiveness, helping the economy to maintain a stable and progressive development despite external complexities and extreme weather conditions [1] Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods and services combined showed a preliminary estimated growth of around 5% from January to July, indicating a steady expansion of consumption [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy has positively impacted sales, with significant year-on-year growth in categories such as home appliances (28.7%), cultural and office supplies (13.8%), furniture (20.6%), and communication equipment (14.9%) [2] - The service retail sector has also seen rapid growth, particularly in cultural and tourism-related services, driven by increased travel demand during the summer [2] Industrial Production Trends - In July, 35 out of 41 major industrial categories reported year-on-year growth, indicating a broad-based recovery in industrial production [4] - High-tech manufacturing added value increased by 9.3% year-on-year, with significant growth in the production of new energy vehicles (17.1%), lithium batteries (29.4%), and wind turbine generators (19.3%) [4] - The production of industrial and service robots also saw substantial increases, with industrial robots up by 24% and service robots by 12.8% [4] Economic Stability Factors - The economic foundation remains strong, with robust advantages and potential, supporting a stable economic operation despite existing risks and challenges [5] - The implementation of more proactive macro policies has expanded production demand and promoted stable economic growth [5] - Expectations for new policies aimed at stabilizing economic development are anticipated, with an acceleration in project funding and infrastructure investment [6]