Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract 2601 closed at 13,835 CNY/ton, an increase of 85 CNY/ton, or 0.62% week-on-week [2][17] - In Xinjiang, the spot price of cotton reached 14,896 CNY/ton, up 23 CNY/ton, while the national weighted average spot price was 15,062 CNY/ton, increasing by 40 CNY/ton [2][18] - As of the end of November 2025, China's commercial cotton inventory stood at 4.6836 million tons, up 175.3 thousand tons, a 59.82% increase from the previous month [3][18] International Market Analysis - The USDA reported a 36% decrease in net cotton contracts for the week of November 7-13, with a total of 42,547 tons signed [2][18] - The U.S. cotton production is under pressure due to increased inventory levels, while global textile consumption remains weak, leading to short-term pressure on cotton prices [4][18] - The cotton market is expected to face seasonal supply pressures as new cotton is harvested in the Northern Hemisphere [4][19] Domestic Market Analysis - Domestic cotton production is expected to increase as the harvest in Xinjiang nears completion, contributing to a seasonal rise in commercial inventory [5][19] - The demand side shows weakness as the textile industry enters its off-season, although spinning profits have improved, limiting downward pressure on cotton prices [5][19] - The strategy suggests a neutral to slightly bullish outlook, focusing on buying opportunities in the 05 contract due to expected tight supply in the new year [6][20] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract 2605 closed at 5,214 CNY/ton, down 19 CNY/ton, or 0.36% week-on-week [7][21] - In Guangxi, the spot price of sugar was 5,370 CNY/ton, down 40 CNY/ton, while in Yunnan, it was 5,295 CNY/ton, down 75 CNY/ton [7][22] - Brazil's sugarcane planting area is projected to be 9.398 million hectares, a 0.2% decrease from the previous month, with sugar production expected to decline by 1.4% year-on-year [8][22] Market Dynamics - The global sugar supply remains in surplus, with no immediate signs of reversal, limiting the potential for price rebounds in the short to medium term [9][23] - Domestic sugar supply is currently ample as factories in Guangxi begin production, although the market remains under downward pressure [9][23] - The strategy is neutral, with attention on market dynamics that could lead to new lows, while maintaining a low-level consolidation approach [10][24] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract 2605 closed at 5,534 CNY/ton, an increase of 44 CNY/ton, or 0.80% week-on-week [11][25] - The average price of needle pulp in Shandong was 5,590 CNY/ton, up 90 CNY/ton, while Russian needle pulp averaged 5,090 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY/ton [11][26] - Recent announcements of mill closures and maintenance in North America are expected to impact supply, while demand in Europe shows signs of improvement [13][27] Supply and Demand Outlook - Despite high inventory levels in domestic ports, recent declines in stock levels indicate potential marginal demand growth for pulp as paper production capacity expands [13][27] - The strategy remains neutral, with recent price increases driven by market adjustments, although fundamental supply-demand conditions have yet to show significant improvement [14][28]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The document does not provide industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is expected to trade in a low - range oscillation. The structural shift in surplus and potential risks from Indonesia's policies should be noted. Stainless steel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with prices expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Indonesia's policy risks [4][5]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's inventory continues to accumulate. It is recommended to short on price increases, with the next - week's price range expected to be between 8,000 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Polysilicon is expected to oscillate at a high level, with the next - week's price range estimated to be between 55,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton [32][33]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market lacks new driving forces, and the high - level oscillation is expected to continue. The price of the futures main contract is expected to be in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [58][59]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil is waiting for Malaysia's December production reduction to confirm the price bottom. It is recommended to operate with a light position. Soybean oil is expected to oscillate in a range, waiting for the overall stabilization of the oil and fat sector [91][93]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1**: Soybean meal is expected to oscillate at a low level, and soybean No.1 is expected to trade within a range. The prices of both are expected to oscillate next week [104][108]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The supply - demand mismatch has been marginally alleviated, and the near - end of the futures market remains relatively strong [122][127]. - **Sugar**: The international market is in a weak - expectation pattern and is expected to be sorted out at a low level. The domestic market is expected to operate weakly [148][150]. - **Cotton**: ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level narrow - range oscillation. Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upside space may be limited [176][193]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and the LH2601 contract in the futures market may face pressure [195][198]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the acquisition strategies of large oil mills [210][211]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: Nickel is in a state of weak supply and demand, with the surplus pressure structurally shifted. Stainless steel has a weak supply - demand situation, with a slight surplus and limited upside space for prices [4][5]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory increased by 1,729 tons to 56,707 tons this week, while LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 253,032 tons. Stainless steel inventories also showed certain changes [6]. - **Market News**: There are various news events, such as Indonesia's policy adjustments, production restrictions in some projects, and changes in the Fed's interest - rate expectations [9][10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price Trends**: Industrial silicon's futures price first declined and then rose, with the spot price falling. Polysilicon's futures price opened low and closed high, with the spot price stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: Industrial silicon's supply has a certain increase in some regions but a decrease in the southwest. The demand is weak. Polysilicon's supply has a slight decrease in the short - term, and the demand has a certain change in silicon wafer production [29][30]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social and factory inventories have increased, and polysilicon's factory inventory has also increased [29][30]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trends**: Futures and spot prices have increased, and the basis has changed [56]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: The supply has a certain change in overseas shipments and domestic production, and the demand has a decline in downstream procurement willingness. The inventory is decreasing, but the rate has slowed down [57]. Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Last Week's Views**: Palm oil rebounded after the MPOB report, but the high - inventory situation restricted the upside. Soybean oil lacked upward driving forces and oscillated within a range [90]. - **This Week's Views**: Palm oil's high production and low demand have pushed up Malaysia's December inventory. It needs to confirm the production reduction in December to find the price bottom. Soybean oil is affected by the slow sales progress of US soybeans and is expected to oscillate [91][93]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Last Week's Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices first fell and then rose, while soybean No.1 prices were relatively strong [104]. - **Next - Week's Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate, with soybean meal affected by US soybean prices and China's procurement, and soybean No.1 affected by spot prices and market news [104][108]. Corn - **Market Review**: Spot prices slightly declined, and futures prices first declined and then rebounded. The basis has strengthened [122][123]. - **Market Outlook**: CBOT corn prices declined, wheat prices fell, and the import corn auction restarted. Corn starch inventory decreased, and attention should be paid to the spot market [124][127]. Sugar - **This Week's Market Review**: International sugar prices increased slightly, and domestic sugar prices declined. The net long position of funds increased slightly [148][149]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: The international market is expected to be sorted out at a low level, and the domestic market is expected to operate weakly [150]. Cotton - **Market Situation**: ICE cotton is in a low - level narrow - range oscillation, and domestic cotton futures and spot prices are slightly stronger. The basis is relatively strong, and the increase in cotton warehouse receipts restricts the upside [176]. - **International and Domestic Fundamentals**: International cotton has various changes in production, consumption, and exports in different countries. Domestic cotton has a certain increase in prices, and the downstream situation is slightly worse [180][188]. Hogs - **This Week's Market Review**: Spot prices oscillated and adjusted, and futures prices were slightly stronger in oscillation. The basis has changed [195][196]. - **Next - Week's Market Outlook**: Spot prices are expected to oscillate weakly, and futures prices may face pressure [197][198]. Peanuts - **Market Review**: Spot prices were stable, and futures prices oscillated [210]. - **Market Outlook**: The spot price has regional differentiation, and the futures near - month contract has support, while the far - month contract has more uncertainties [211].

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 12月12日(周五)，据美国农业部(USDA)数据，截至12月11日(周四)当周，美棉现货平均报价较前周下跌 67点。 当周，七个指定市场的基础品质棉花(色度41、叶屑4、纤维34、马克隆值35-36及43-49、强力27.0- 28.9、整齐度81.0-81.9)平均报价为60.33美分/磅，低于前周的61.00美分/磅，也低于去年同期的65.33美 分/磅。 日均报价介于12月8日(周一)低点60.14美分/磅和12月10日(周三)高点60.48美分/磅之间。 零星的阵雨给卡罗来纳和弗吉尼亚沿海的棉花种植区带来大约1-1.5英寸的有益水分。在最潮湿的地 区，收获和田间工作被推迟，但本周晚些时候的晴朗天气令松软的土壤变得结实。轧棉未被打断。 西南部市场 得克萨斯州东部和南部棉花现货交易温和。供应和生产商报价适中。需求清淡。当地平均现货价格下 降。生产商对远期合约的兴趣不大。外国棉厂的询价较适中。来自印度、巴基斯坦、土耳其、越南的兴 趣最大。 得克萨斯州东部地区天气以干燥、微风和局部多云为主。午后最高气温上升到华氏50多度到70多度，夜 间气温稳定在华氏30多度到50多 ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 一、期货 汇市：美元指数上涨。股市：纽约股市三大股指下跌。油市：国际油价微跌。 12月12日(周五)，洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货下跌，因美元小幅反弹，且出口需求乏力。 二、现货 ICE指标3月期棉合约下跌0.14美分或0.22%，结算价报63.83美分/磅。 11日CotlookA指数74.20美分/磅，涨25点。 美元兑主要货币在最近几个交易日下跌后于周五上涨，但在美联储明年降息的前景下仍有望连续第3周 下跌。 美国农业部(USDA)周四公布的出口销售报告显示，11月13日止当周，当前年度美棉出口销售净增18.76 万包，较前周减少36%，较前四周均值增加10%，其中对中国出口销售净增0.57万吨。下一年度美棉出 口销售净增0.18万包。美棉出口装船11.32万包，较前周减少17%，较前四周均值减少27%，其中对中国 出口装船1.09万包。 VLMCommodities的合伙人兼分析师LouisBarbara表示："我认为目前棉价处区间波动，且略微偏向下 行，除非我们能吸引越南以外的其他买家来承接大量供应。但只要巴西棉价仍保持如此大的价格优势， 且澳大利亚(棉花)有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information provided regarding the industry investment ratings in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Oils and Fats - Palm oil: Malaysian palm oil futures may face downward pressure if they cannot hold above 4,100 ringgit, with support at 4,000 ringgit. In China, Dalian palm oil futures could break down due to bearish fundamentals, with support around 8,000 yuan. - Soybean oil: The US EIA has lowered its forecasts for renewable diesel production in 2025 and 2026. However, the Fed's potential rate cuts and the rebound of BMD palm oil support CBOT soybean oil. In China, the spot basis is shifting to the May contract, and the first - quarter soybean imports are expected to decrease, which may reduce factory soybean oil inventories [1]. Meals - US soybeans: Lack trading highlights, with slow - growing Chinese demand and high crushing demand. South American new crops are progressing well with strong harvest expectations. The market is not optimistic about medium - to - long - term US soybean prices. - Domestic soybean meal: The loose supply pattern continues, but the market is speculating on longer soybean customs clearance times, and the 1 - 5 positive spread has strengthened. The spot pressure remains, but the future supply is expected to tighten [2]. Pigs - The market has some reluctance to sell, and the spot price is stable. The southern curing demand is increasing, but there are uncertainties in the December - January market due to the potential impact of the epidemic and secondary fattening. The overall supply pressure is large, and the price is hard to improve. The futures market is struggling to rise and has fallen in the past two days [4]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are under pressure below 15 cents per pound. Indian sugar production in Maharashtra is increasing. The overall raw sugar price is bearish. In China, the sugar price is weak due to the accelerated sugar - cane crushing in Guangxi and Yunnan, and the market is expected to remain in a weak - oscillating pattern [8][9]. Corn - North port corn prices rose slightly due to insufficient arrivals, while prices in the Northeast and North China were stable to weak. The demand side is cautious, with deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly making purchases based on rigid needs. The short - term corn futures are expected to oscillate, and the follow - up supply volume should be monitored [10]. Eggs - The supply of eggs is relatively sufficient, although the November national laying - hen inventory decreased slightly. The market has a normal sales speed, but the demand is weak. Egg prices are expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [14]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures fell due to weak US export demand. In China, Zhengzhou cotton faces increasing hedging pressure during the price increase, but the downstream demand is relatively strong, and the price decline space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the 14,000 pressure level [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Oils and Fats - **Soybean Oil**: On December 11, the spot price in Jiangsu was 8,600 yuan, up 0.58% from the previous day. The futures price of Y2605 was 8,268 yuan, up 0.56%. The basis was 328 yuan, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,964 [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,680 yuan on December 11, up 0.46%. The futures price of P2605 was 8,656 yuan, up 1.33%. The basis was - 75.51%. The import cost was 9,102.8 yuan, and the import profit was - 447 yuan [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,000 yuan on December 11, up 3.09%. The futures price of OI601 was 9,443 yuan, up 1.65%. The basis was 401 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 3,490 [1]. Meals - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3,060 yuan on December 11, up 0.66%. The futures price of M2605 was 2,750 yuan, down 0.15%. The basis was 310 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 23,830 [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,410 yuan on December 11, up 1.26%. The futures price of RM2605 was 2,323 yuan, down 0.26%. The basis was 87 yuan, and the warehouse receipts were 0 [2]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,940 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract was 4,173 yuan, up 0.29%. The basis was - 233 yuan [2]. Pigs - **Futures**: The futures price of LH2605 was 11,820 yuan on December 11, down 0.17%. The futures price of LH2603 was 11,220 yuan, down 0.80%. The 3 - 5 spread was - 600 yuan, down 13.21%. The main - contract positions increased by 3.54% to 154,716, and the warehouse receipts increased by 40.21% to 523 [4]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Henan was 11,360 yuan, up 60 yuan; in Shandong, it was 11,330 yuan, up 130 yuan; in Sichuan, it was 12,000 yuan, up 200 yuan; in Liaoning, it was 11,390 yuan, up 90 yuan; in Guangdong, it was 12,460 yuan, unchanged; in Hunan, it was 11,160 yuan, unchanged; in Hebei, it was 11,660 yuan, up 160 yuan [4]. Sugar - **Futures**: The futures price of SR2601 was 5,358 yuan on December 11, up 0.56%. The futures price of SR2605 was 5,245 yuan, up 0.38%. The ICE raw sugar main - contract price was 14.86 cents per pound, down 0.27%. The 1 - 5 spread was 113 yuan, up 9.71%. The main - contract positions increased by 62.10% to 391,467, and the warehouse receipts increased by 54.29% to 611 [8]. - **Spot**: The spot price in Nanning and Kunming was unchanged. The Nanning basis was 115 yuan, down 14.81%; the Kunming basis was 75 yuan, down 21.05%. The in - quota imported Brazilian sugar price was 4,100 yuan, up 2.07%, and the out - of - quota price was 5,195 yuan, up 2.12% [8]. Corn - **Corn**: The futures price of C2601 was 2,243 yuan on December 11, up 0.09%. The Jinzhou Port flat - hatch price was 2,290 yuan, up 0.44%. The basis was 57 yuan, up 16.33%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 24 yuan, unchanged [10]. - **Corn Starch**: The futures price of CS2601 was 2,523 yuan, down 0.36%. The Changchun and Weifang spot prices were unchanged. The basis was 67 yuan, up 15.52%. The 1 - 5 spread was - 53 yuan, down 1.92% [10]. Eggs - **Futures**: The futures price of JD01 was 3,144 yuan on December 11, down 0.29%. The futures price of JD02 was 2,968 yuan, down 0.40%. The 1 - 2 spread was 176 yuan, up 1.73%. - **Spot**: The egg - producing area price was 3.09 yuan per catty, up 0.64%. The basis was - 57 yuan, up 33.37% [14]. Cotton - **Futures**: The futures price of CF2605 was 13,850 yuan on December 11, up 0.65%. The futures price of CF2601 was 13,860 yuan, up 0.58%. The ICE US cotton main - contract price was 64.00 cents per pound, down 0.19%. The 5 - 1 spread was - 10 yuan, up 50.00%. The main - contract positions decreased by 3.02% to 460,016, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 0.10% to 2,967 [16]. - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan, up 0.03%. The CC Index 3128B was 15,013 yuan, up 0.06%. The FC Index M 1% was 12,898 yuan, up 0.40% [16].

研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | --- | 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 郑棉交投重心上移。现货方面，最新棉花价格指数 328 级在 15013 元/吨，较 上一交易日涨 9 元/吨。当前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The cotton price broke through the previous platform and showed strong momentum, and it is expected to remain strong in the future due to favorable fundamental and macro factors. It is recommended to buy long positions on dips. [6] - The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - For the cotton market, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for arbitrage and options trading. [8][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 13,860, 13,850, and 14,025 respectively, with price increases of 80, 90, and 125. The trading volumes of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were relatively small, at 227, 8, and 2 lots respectively. [2] - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan. The Cot A price was 73.95 cents/pound. [2] - **Price Spreads**: In cotton cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was 10 (down 10), the 5 - 9 spread was - 175 (down 35), and the 9 - 1 spread was 165 (up 45). In cotton - yarn cross - period spreads, the 1 - 5 spread was - 180 (down 55), the 5 - 9 spread was - 130 (down 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 65. [2] 3.2 Market News and Views 3.2.1 Cotton Market News - In the US cotton - growing regions, the average temperature decreased and precipitation was stable. The La Nina climate in the Northern Hemisphere winter may lead to lower - than - normal temperatures and potential drought during the sowing season. [4] - The Indian Cotton Association (CAI) adjusted the 2025/26 cotton balance sheet, with increased production, imports, and exports, and decreased domestic demand, resulting in a continued increase in ending stocks. [4] - In Pakistan, as of November 30, 2025, the new cotton market volume decreased by 1% year - on - year, textile mills' purchases decreased by 4% year - on - year, and unsold cotton increased by 16% year - on - year. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Logic - Fundamentals: The 2025/26 new cotton had a good harvest, and the sales progress was fast. There were rumors that the cotton planting area in Xinjiang might decrease next year, and Xinjiang textile mills were expected to expand production capacity. [6] - Macro - factors: The easing of Sino - US relations and the mutual reduction of tariffs were beneficial to China's textile and clothing exports. [6] 3.2.3 Trading Strategies - **Single - side trading**: The US cotton is expected to trade in a range, while the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trend upward with fluctuations. [7] - **Arbitrage and Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. [8][9] 3.2.4 Cotton - yarn Industry News - The trading in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with high - count combed yarns selling well and inventories of other varieties slightly increasing. Spinners' price increases were somewhat accepted by downstream buyers, but the cash - flow situation was still not optimistic. [9] - The trading in the all - cotton grey fabric market remained light, and manufacturers were mainly focused on inventory digestion. [9] 3.3 Options - On November 24, 2025, for the CF601C13400.CZC option, the closing price was 183.00, with a 71.0% increase; for the CF601P13000.CZC option, the closing price was 7.00, with a 75.9% decrease; for the CF601P12400.CZC option, the closing price was 2.00, with an 83.3% decrease. [11] - The 10 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly. The implied volatilities of CF601 - C - 13400, CF601 - P - 13000, and CF601 - P - 12400 were 6.7%, 11.4%, and 17.8% respectively. [11] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton decreased in both open interest and trading volume. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see strategy for options trading. [12][13] 3.4 Relevant Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - adjusted domestic and international cotton price spreads, cotton basis for January, May, and September contracts, CY - CF spreads, and CF cross - period spreads. [15][18][22][23]

行业 棉花 日期 2025 年 12 月 11 日 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 、 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 研究员：余兰兰 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 一、行情回顾与操作建议 研究员：林贞磊 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 研究员：王海峰 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 据 CFTC，截至11月 4日当周，CFTC美棉仅期货非商业持仓基金多头 78625 （+3267）张，连续第二周增加，空头 123469（-6936）张，连续第三周 减少，ICE 总持仓 30 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 农产品日报 2024 年 12 月 10 日 研究员：王玺圳、刘倩楠 期货从业证号： F03118729、F3013727 投资咨询证号： Z0022817、Z0014425 联系方式： :wangxizhen_qh@chin astock.com.cn 棉花、棉纱日报 第二部分 市场消息及观点 【棉花市场消息】 1、根据 USDA 最新 12 月全球棉花产销预测，总产量略有调减至 2608 万吨；总消费略有调减至 2582 万 吨；期末库存增加 1 万吨至 1654 万吨。 2、 印度棉花协会(CAI)最新报告显示，截至 2025 年 11 月 30 日，CAI 评估印度棉花 2025/26 年度棉花 平衡表，与上月评估相比产量调增 8 万吨，进口调增 9 万吨，出口增加 2 万吨而国内需求下调 9 万吨，导致 期末库存继续增加 23 万吨。与上一年度比较，期初库存增加 36 万吨，产量减少 5 万吨，进口增加 15 万吨， 国内需求减少 32 万吨，出口持平，期末库存增加 79 万吨。2025/26 年度平衡表调整偏空，进口关税豁免导 致年底进口量大幅增长，而需求因美国关税导致下滑 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the fluctuations in cotton futures prices on the ICE, with a current price of 63.96 cents per pound, reflecting a slight increase of 0.14% from the opening price [1] - On December 9, the cotton futures market showed a closing price of 63.84 cents per pound, which represented a decrease of 0.16% from the previous day [2] - The total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone as of December 8, 2025, is reported at 33,200 tons, showing a year-on-year decrease of 0.40% [2] Group 2 - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 63.67 cents per pound on December 9, indicating a decline of 0.06% from the previous day and a 2.09% decrease compared to the same period last month [2] - Analysis from U.S. industry organizations indicates a reduction of 1.9 million acres in U.S. cotton planting area for 2025, with a significant portion of the cotton being replaced by corn [2]