1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report provides outlook ratings for various agricultural products, including: - Oils and fats: Expected to fluctuate [5] - Protein meal: Expected to fluctuate and rise [6] - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate [6][7] - Live pigs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [2][7] - Natural rubber and 20 - number rubber: Expected to fluctuate [8][9] - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Cotton: Expected to fluctuate [10][11] - Sugar: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish in the long - term, and fluctuate in the short - term [12] - Pulp: Expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14] - Logs: Expected to be volatile and slightly bearish [15] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, inventory, and market sentiment of various agricultural products. It points out that factors such as policies, trade relations, weather, and consumption demand have significant impacts on the prices of agricultural products. For example, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects market sentiment, and the trade tension affects the price of protein meal [1][5][6]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment is weakening, and the risk of a decline in the near future is increasing. - **Logic**: Concerns about high - temperature threats to US soybean growth, the impact of the Fed's policy expectations on the macro - environment, and the increase in palm oil production and inventory pressure in the industry are the main reasons. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and there is a risk of a callback [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Driven by trade - tension concerns, the protein meal market is rising. - **Logic**: International soybean markets are facing a complex situation of multiple factors, while the domestic market is affected by supply pressure and trade - war concerns. - **Outlook**: The domestic protein meal market is stronger than the US market, and the basis is expected to be weak. Long - term prospects are bullish [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The macro - environment is favorable, and corn rebounds after over - decline. - **Logic**: The supply of corn is gradually tightening, but the demand is weak, and the market has digested previous positive factors. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there may be a phased rebound, but in the long - term, there is a downward pressure [6][7]. 3.1.4 Live Pigs - **View**: The anti - involution hype continues, and live pig futures prices rebound. - **Logic**: The supply of live pigs is still high in the short, medium, and long - term, but the policy of adjusting production capacity brings positive expectations. The demand and inventory also affect the market. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish, but the supply pressure in the third quarter is still large [1][7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The bullish sentiment in the commodity market continues, and natural rubber reaches the 15,000 - yuan mark. - **Logic**: The overall commodity market sentiment is bullish, and the fundamentals of natural rubber are stable in the short - term. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall, following the overall commodity sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The market is running strongly, but the hype is limited. - **Logic**: The news of the industrial policy stimulates the market sentiment, but the policy direction is unclear. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate within a range [10][11]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The 09 contract reduces positions and corrects. - **Logic**: The supply of cotton is expected to be loose, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is low in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Low inventory supports the price, but the upward resistance increases, and it may correct [10][11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: There are negative factors at the import end, and the rebound height of sugar prices is limited. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be loose, and domestic imports are expected to increase. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, sugar prices are expected to decline, and in the short - term, they are expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: Pulp futures rise with the macro - environment, and it is recommended to go long. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is the main driving force, while the supply and demand are weak. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: With continuous delivery, logs increase positions and rise. - **Logic**: The spot market is affected by delivery and inventory, and the supply and demand are expected to be weak in the medium - term. - **Outlook**: The short - term is affected by macro - funds, and the long - term market demand is stable [15][16]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - The report lists various agricultural products for data monitoring, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, starch, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data are not provided in the given text [18][37][50][107][120][135][154].

1. Report Information - Report Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Zhengzhou cotton futures increased in volume and price, breaking through the upper resistance level. The latest price index of 328-grade cotton was 15,354 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis of 4129/29B/impurity 3.5 in northern Xinjiang was mostly above CF09+1500, and some were in the range of 1400-1500, but the quantity was gradually decreasing. The basis of machine-picked 31-grade double-29 cotton in Kashgar, southern Xinjiang, was mostly above CF09+1100, and the higher quotes were above CF09+1200, with the basis below 1200 continuing to decrease [7]. - The trading volume in the pure cotton yarn market remained stable, with a relatively weak atmosphere. The price of cotton yarn was stable with a slight upward trend, and downstream enterprises gradually digested the previous price increase. During the off-season, spinning mills continued to reduce production by lowering the operating rate to alleviate inventory pressure. The price of cotton grey fabric increased, with some small orders increasing and shorter delivery times, but the overall market remained weak with limited improvement. Currently, the inventory pressure of conventional products in weaving mills was still high, and actual orders were negotiated based on quantity [7]. - As of July 13, in the United States, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year. Although the overall growth progress was slightly slower, the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year, and the expectation of a bumper harvest remained. Driven by the continuous rise in raw material prices, most downstream spinning mills maintained just-in-time procurement, and some large spinning mills made large-scale basis-locking purchases [8]. Operation Suggestions - The short-term resistance level of the futures market has been broken, opening up the upside space. However, the current strong rise does not represent a fundamental trend reversal but a phased rebound driven by capital, waiting for the release of bullish sentiment [8]. 3. Industry News - According to Xinjiang Xingnong Network, from July 15 to 21, most of the plain areas in Xinjiang will experience high temperatures above 37°C, with the highest temperatures in some areas reaching above 40°C and even above 45°C in Turpan and Hami. The peak of the high temperature will occur from July 19 to 20. Currently, most of the cotton in Xinjiang is in the flowering and boll-forming stage [9]. 4. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1-5 spread, CF5-9 spread, CF9-1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Group 1: Market Information - Futures contracts: CF01 closed at 13865 with a 45-point increase, CF05 at 13835 with a 50-point increase, CF09 at 13990 with a 140-point increase, CY01 at 20135 with a 100-point increase, CY05 at 20060 with a 45-point increase, and CY09 at 20180 with a 130-point increase [3]. - Spot prices: CCIndex3128B was 15272 yuan/ton with a 23-yuan decrease, Cot A was 78.75 cents/pound with a 0.70-cent increase, and other spot prices also had corresponding changes [3]. - Price differences: Cotton and棉纱 had various inter - period and cross - variety price differences, such as the 1 - 5 month cotton inter - period spread being 30 with a 5 - point decrease [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - US cotton: As of the week of July 12, 2025, the average temperature in the main US cotton - producing areas was 82.81°F, 0.12°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 1.22 inches, 0.16 inches higher than the same period last year [6]. - Indian cotton: As of July 11, 2025, the cotton planting area in India in the 2025/26 season was 9.283 million hectares, 239,000 hectares lower than the same period last year. As of the week of July 13, 2025, the weekly cotton listing volume in India was 133,000 tons, a 316% year - on - year increase [6][7]. Trading Logic - US cotton: It was slightly weak in the short term but had potential positive factors due to possible trade negotiations and the weather trading peak [8]. - Zhengzhou cotton: The upward space might be relatively limited considering factors such as downstream demand and potential additional sliding - scale tariff quotas [8]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in a volatile trend, and Zhengzhou cotton was expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10]. - Options: Sell put options [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The cotton fabric market was cold, with manufacturers having small - order shipments, and weavers reducing production and taking holidays. Spinning mills' cash - flow losses were not significantly improved, and downstream procurement was mainly on a need - to - buy basis [11][13]. Group 3: Options - Option data: For example, on July 16, 2025, the CF509C14000.CZC option had a closing price of 188 with a 9.2% decrease [14]. - Volatility: The 10 - day HV of cotton was 4.4970, and the implied volatilities of some options were given [14]. - Option strategy: Sell put options, and the market's bearish sentiment was alleviated [15][16].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply, and the new - year cotton price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term, although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly [2] - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range, and the medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies. The import volume in July - August is expected to increase, which will limit the upside space [5] - The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract yesterday was 13,850 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,286 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1436, up 29 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF09 + 1452, up 32 from the previous day [1] - As of July 13, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 percentage point slower than the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than last year and 8 percentage points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The July USDA supply - demand report raised the global cotton production and ending stocks, with a bearish adjustment direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be in a loose supply pattern. The USDA raised the new US cotton production, and the new - year US cotton balance sheet is difficult to improve significantly [2] - Domestic: The domestic cotton commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the short - term expectation of tight supply at the end of the year supports Zhengzhou cotton. However, the domestic cotton planting area is stable with a slight increase, the new cotton is growing well, and the demand in the off - season is weak, so the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted. In the medium - to - long term, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is oscillating strongly, the new - year cotton market will be in a pattern of oversupply, and the medium - to - long term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract yesterday was 5,802 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.26%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 258, up 15 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR09 + 103, up 15 from the previous day [2] - As of the second half of June in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 206.198 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.06%; the ATR of cane was 122.19 kg/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 6.14 kg/ton; the cumulative sugar - making ratio was 51.02%, a year - on - year increase of 2.33%; the cumulative ethanol production was 9.425 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.81%; the cumulative sugar production was 12.249 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.25% [3] Market Analysis - International: The current market is optimistic about the supply prospects of major sugar - producing countries in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. The long - term raw sugar price is under downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term oversold rebound [4] - Domestic: The sales and production progress of domestic sugar in this sugar - crushing season is fast, and the industrial inventory has dropped to a historical low, making the spot price relatively firm. However, the rebound of the import profit after the quota due to the weakening of the external market, and the expected increase in imports in July - August will limit the upside space of Zhengzhou sugar [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term trend of Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in a range. It is recommended to sell high and buy low in the range. The medium - to - long term view is to sell short on rallies, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract yesterday was 5,262 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.34%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 + 688, down 18 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Bratsk) in Shandong was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SP09 - 47, down 18 from the previous day [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was generally stable, with some pulp types showing price increases due to sellers' reluctance to sell at low prices. The prices of some softwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Guangdong, Northeast China, Henan, and Hebei dropped by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; the prices of some hardwood pulp grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Northeast China, Hebei, and Henan increased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton; the supply - demand of imported natural pulp and chemimechanical pulp changed little, and the prices were stable [6] Market Analysis - Supply: The import volume of wood pulp increased year - on - year in the first half of 2025, and the cumulative year - on - year increase in hardwood pulp imports was relatively large. The import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline in the second half of the year, but the port inventory is high, and the supply pressure in the second half of the year still exists, with hardwood pulp being more abundant than softwood pulp [7] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US has been weak this year, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. The domestic demand is weak due to the traditional off - season, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and the paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious. The terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited, and attention should be paid to whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term macro - favorable factors boost the pulp price, but the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may be difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [8]

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton oscillated and adjusted. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 15,302 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The sales basis for 4129/29B/3.5 impurity in Northern Xinjiang's machine-picked cotton in 2024/25 was mostly at CF09+1400 - 1500 and above, with a small amount below this price. The basis quotation for machine-picked Grade 31 double-29 cotton in Kashgar, Southern Xinjiang was mostly at CF09+1100 and above, and the low-price quotation was still at CF09+950 - 1100, but the quantity at low prices decreased significantly, all for self-pickup in Xinjiang [7] - The overall market of pure cotton yarn changed little this week. Spinning mills mostly maintained last week's quotations, and actual transactions gradually followed up. Downstream procurement volume remained low, mainly for rigid demand. The market lacked confidence in the future market, and inland spinning mills continued to limit production. The market for all-cotton grey cloth has been continuously sluggish recently, with light shipments. Weaving factories produced spot goods, with low production and sales rates and accumulated finished product inventories. Currently, weaving factories have few orders, mainly small and scattered orders, and the current machine startup rate of weaving factories remains low [7] - As of July 13, in the international market, the budding rate of cotton in 15 major cotton-growing states in the US was 61%, 1 percentage point slower than the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, 3 percentage points slower than the same period last year; and the good-to-excellent rate was 54%, 9 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The overall growth progress was slightly slower, but the good-to-excellent rate continued to rise, and there was still room for an increase in production. In the domestic market, the actual sown area increased year-on-year this year, and the expectation of an overall bumper harvest still exists. The industrial downstream remained weak, with overall weak demand. The cotton yarn inventory of downstream spinning mills continued to rise, and inland spinning mills continued to reduce the startup rate, but the startup rate of Xinjiang spinning mills remained firm, with a small decline. In the short term, there were still concerns about the tight supply of old crops, but considering the current off-season consumption stage, tariff disturbances still existed, and the weather had not yet had an impact, so the upside space should be viewed with caution [8] Group 3: Industry News - According to the General Administration of Customs, in June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the exports of textile yarns, fabrics and products were 12.048 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%, and the exports of clothing and clothing accessories were 15.267 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were 143.978 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [9] - As of the week ending July 13, 2025, the good-to-excellent rate of US cotton was 54%, compared with 52% in the previous week and 45% in the same period last year; the boll-setting rate was 23%, compared with 14% in the previous week, 26% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 22%; the budding rate was 61%, compared with 48% in the previous week, 62% in the same period last year, and a five-year average of 62% [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt total, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [18][19][26]

Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillatory adjustment. The spot cotton price index for Grade 328 is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market has a complex situation with both supply - demand and external factor impacts [7] - Macroscopically, there are tariff disturbances as Trump plans to impose a 30% tariff on Mexico and the EU on August 1st. The USDA July monthly supply - demand report shows a slight adjustment in the global cotton market, with total production up 310,000 tons to 25.78 million tons and total consumption up 80,000 tons to 25.72 million tons, and a slight accumulation of ending stocks. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream industry is weak, and short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain. However, considering the consumption off - season, tariff disturbances, and lack of weather - related impacts, the upside potential should be viewed with caution [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: Zhengzhou cotton oscillates. The 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. The cotton sales basis is different in different regions. The pure - cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in downstream operating rates, stable yarn prices, and a slight increase in inventory. The all - cotton grey fabric market remains weak, and the market outlook for July and August is generally pessimistic [7] - **Analysis of Market Influencing Factors**: Tariff disturbances exist. The USDA report shows minor adjustments in the global cotton market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but the downstream is weak. Short - term concerns about tight old - crop supplies remain, but the upside potential is limited due to the off - season, tariff issues, and lack of weather impacts [8] 3.2 Industry News - The agricultural rural department's prediction of China's cotton supply - demand situation remains the same as last month. Most cotton in China is in the budding to flowering stage, with a development period 4 - 7 days earlier than usual. There is a high risk of heat damage to cotton in Xinjiang in July. The cotton inventory is decreasing, but the downstream market is in the off - season, and spinning mills are cautious in raw material procurement [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the cotton market, including price indices, spot and futures prices, basis changes, spreads, inventory data, and exchange rate data, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][16]

Sugar Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The global sugar supply tends to be loose, pressuring the raw sugar. The domestic sugar supply is marginally loose, and the price is expected to be bearish after a rebound, with attention paid to the pressure around 5800 - 5900 [2]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5632 yuan/ton, down 0.05%; the price of sugar 2509 is 5810 yuan/ton, up 0.09%. The ICE raw sugar主力 is 16.56 cents/pound, up 1.85%. The main contract open interest increased by 4.46% [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 6060 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the Kunming spot price is 5905 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The Nanning basis is 250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%; the Kunming basis is 95 yuan/ton, up 26.67% [1]. - **Industry Situation**: The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 12.03% year-on-year; the national cumulative sugar sales is 811.38 million tons, up 23.07% year-on-year [1]. Cotton Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term domestic cotton price may fluctuate strongly within a stable range, but will be under pressure after the new cotton is listed [4]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of cotton 2509 is 13885 yuan/ton, up 0.14%; the price of cotton 2601 is 13820 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The main contract open interest increased by 0.80% [4]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 15263 yuan/ton, up 0.58%; the CC Index: 3128B is 15266 yuan/ton, up 0.46% [4]. - **Industry Situation**: The commercial inventory decreased by 9.5% month - on - month; the industrial inventory decreased by 2.9% month - on - month. The import volume decreased by 33.3% month - on - month [4]. Egg Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The egg price is expected to rise first and then stabilize this week, but the rebound amplitude is limited and it is still under pressure at high levels [8]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the egg 09 contract is 3580 yuan/500KG, up 0.06%; the price of the egg 08 contract is 3442 yuan/500KG, down 0.12% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The egg - producing area price is 2.51 yuan/jin, up 1.39% [7]. - **Industry Situation**: The in - lay hen inventory remains high, but the egg production rate and egg weight have declined due to high temperatures. The demand is expected to increase [8]. Oil Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The palm oil price may fall and adjust; the soybean oil price will maintain high production, and the spot basis quotation is under pressure [10]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of Y2509 is 7986, up 0.53%; the price of P2509 is 8682, up 0.51% [10]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu first - class soybean oil is 8240, up 0.86%; the price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 8800, up 1.50% [10]. - **Industry Situation**: The domestic palm oil inventory and soybean oil inventory situation are given, and the influence of production and inventory on prices is analyzed [10]. Meal Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The meal market is under pressure, the domestic soybean and meal inventory is rising, and the meal price is currently in the process of bottom - grinding [11]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of M2509 is 2976, up 0.74%; the price of RM2509 is 2633, up 0.84% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The price of Jiangsu soybean meal is 2830, up 1.07%; the price of Jiangsu rapeseed meal is 2530, up 0.80% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The US soybean production, export, and inventory are affected by weather and tariffs. The domestic soybean and meal inventory and supply and demand situation are also analyzed [11]. Corn Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The short - term corn market sentiment is weak, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see [13]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of corn 2509 is 2306 yuan/ton, down 0.60%. The main contract open interest increased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot Market**: The Jinzhou Port FOB price remains unchanged; the Shekou bulk grain price is 2430 yuan/ton, down 0.41% [13]. - **Industry Situation**: The import corn auction situation, downstream demand, and substitution situation are analyzed [13]. Pig Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The pig price is under pressure in the short term, but there is no basis for a sharp decline. Attention should be paid to the pressure above 14500 on the 09 contract [18]. Summary by Directory - **Futures Market**: The price of the main contract is 13645 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the price of the 2509 contract is 14345 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The main contract open interest decreased by 3.05% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The pig spot price fluctuates, with prices in various regions showing different degrees of decline [17]. - **Industry Situation**: The secondary fattening enthusiasm has declined, the market demand is weak, and the production capacity expansion is cautious [17][18].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 11, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The cotton market is experiencing a period of oscillatory adjustment due to a lack of strong short - term drivers. Both the international and domestic cotton markets face uncertainties from factors such as tariffs, weather, and market demand. The domestic cotton market has a high expectation of a bumper harvest this year, but concerns about tight ending stocks of old crops remain. The downstream industry continues to operate weakly, with low demand and increasing inventory [7][8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Zhengzhou cotton futures are oscillating. The latest price index of 328 - grade cotton is 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market is still sluggish, with a decline in the downstream operating rate and a slight increase in inventory. The cotton fabric market remains weak, with inventory backlogs and a pessimistic outlook for July and August [7] - **Market Analysis**: Macroscopically, tariff disruptions still exist. Internationally, the good growth of U.S. cotton and the upcoming July supply - demand report will affect the market. Domestically, there is an expected bumper harvest, but concerns about tight old - crop ending stocks remain. The downstream industry is weak, with low demand and increasing inventory. In the short term, the market will oscillate and adjust [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Tariff Policy**: Trump postponed the reciprocal tariff suspension period to August 1 and mentioned possible tariff increases on multiple countries. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the tariff revenue could reach 30 billion by the end of the year [9] - **Cotton Harvest**: As of the week ending July 5, the total cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points from the previous week but 5% slower than the same period last year [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, basis changes, inventory data, and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][12][14]