Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, suggesting a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Core Viewpoints - The oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance since the end of October. The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] - The cost support for asphalt has been continuously weakening, the demand is expected to follow the seasonal weakening pattern, and the medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since the end of October, the oil price has continued to show a weak and volatile performance. Geopolitical risks have boosted the oil price, but the rebound height has always been limited [2] - According to the monthly reports of the three major institutions, considering the suspension of production increases by OPEC+ in the first quarter of next year and the strict implementation of production cut compensation, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively [2] - The supply-side contraction-induced cyclical inflection point of oil prices has not been seen yet, and a weak and volatile judgment on crude oil is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. The subsequent actual exports of Russia still have uncertainties, but the medium-term supply pattern tends to be loose [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but the possible increase in low-sulfur shipping volume caused by the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit of the Kaigute refinery at the end of December needs attention, and medium-term supply pressure still exists [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, and the cost support has been continuously weakening [3] - Since November, the weekly shipment volume has decreased month-on-month and is also at a low level in the same period of the past four years [3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" end-year rush demand expectation has been falsified, and the subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern. The medium- and long-term fundamentals have a bearish impact on BU [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import landed cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start operations, and the demand on the combustion side has improved [4] - The supply and demand of liquefied petroleum gas have tightened marginally, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: One red star, indicating a bullish bias but with limited trading opportunities on the market [5][6] - Fuel oil: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Three red stars, indicating a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] - Asphalt: Three green stars, meaning a clearer downward trend and relatively appropriate short-selling opportunities [5][6] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Three red stars, suggesting a clearer upward trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities [5][6] Report's Core View - The oil market is facing different supply and demand situations, with crude oil expected to be volatile and weak, while fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and liquefied petroleum gas are expected to be bullish, and asphalt is expected to be bearish [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Since late October, oil prices have continued to show a volatile and weak performance, with geopolitical risks providing some support but limited rebound [2] - According to the three major institutions' monthly reports, considering OPEC+'s suspension of production increases and strict implementation of production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have a supply surplus of 1.84 million barrels per day this year and 3.31 million barrels per day next year [2] - The supply-side contraction has not yet led to a cyclical inflection point in oil prices, and a volatile and weak outlook is maintained [2] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - High-sulfur fuel oil is currently supported by geopolitical factors, but the mid-term supply pattern is expected to be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil has been strong recently due to supply-side fluctuations, but mid-term supply pressure still exists, especially considering the planned maintenance of the RFCC unit at the Kert refinery in late December [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support [3] - Weekly shipments have decreased month-on-month since November and are at a low level in the same period in the past four years [3] - Commercial inventory depletion has continued to slow down, and the year-on-year increase in social inventory has widened since the end of October [3] - The expected rush demand in the "14th Five-Year Plan" has been disproven, and subsequent demand will follow the seasonal weakening pattern, with negative signals for year-end demand compared to last year [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost [4] - The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation units has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the demand for combustion has improved due to the significant cooling in many places [4] - The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the supply and demand have tightened marginally, leading to a bullish outlook [4]

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——段睿：我与蔡磊是 "找钥匙的人"，纵使生前寻不到，也要为其他渐冻症患 者铺就近路 （记者 曾健辉） 2025年1至6月份，宝利国际的营业收入构成为：沥青行业占比97.0%，通用航空占比3.0%。 截至发稿，宝利国际市值为40亿元。 每经AI快讯，宝利国际（SZ 300135，收盘价：4.37元）11月18日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第一次 董事会会议于2025年11月18日在公司会议室召开。会议审议了《关于选举公司第七届董事会下属专门委 员会委员的议案》等文件。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile situation, with different sectors having different trends and influencing factors. For example, the A - share market is affected by macro - data and shows an upward - then - downward trend; the steel and ore market is expected to be weak in the medium - to - long - term; and the energy market is influenced by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [10][12][35]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The 22nd issue of Qiushi magazine published President Xi Jinping's important article. The National Bureau of Statistics released October economic data, showing a slowdown in multiple indicators. The prices of commercial housing in 70 cities declined. The Chinese government reminded citizens to avoid traveling to Japan. The State Council studied "two - important" construction and consumption - promotion policies. The central bank will conduct a large - scale reverse - repurchase operation. The US will release multiple economic data. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange will list platinum and palladium futures. The market supervision department issued an anti - monopoly compliance guide. The national child - rearing subsidy system has been implemented, and the lithium - battery industry chain has seen a price increase. Trump adjusted the scope of "reciprocal tariffs" [4][5][6][7][8]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a volatile mindset and temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market rose and then fell, affected by macro - data. The decline in industrial growth, consumption, and investment may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, anti - involution, and the real - estate downturn [10]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market's expectation of monetary easing has declined, but interest - rate cuts cannot be ruled out. Maintain the view of increased easing in Q4. The money market is affected by the approaching tax period, and the stock - bond seesaw effect is weakly effective [11]. Black - **Steel and Ore**: In the short - term, expect a volatile consolidation; in the medium - to - long - term, maintain a bearish view when prices are high. The supply - demand relationship is weak, with high inventory and low profit for steel mills. The price is affected by low - price transactions and may remain weak [12][13]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices may continue to decline in the short - term. In the medium - term, the mine's production is restricted by policies, and the demand for steel is weak in the off - season, but the strong thermal - coal price provides some support [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate, so maintain a bearish view when prices are high. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see. The prices are fluctuating narrowly, and the cost of manganese - silicon is relatively stable [15]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is recommended to wait and see. The soda - ash industry has production fluctuations and cost increases, while the glass industry's strong sales have not continued, and the market is concerned about demand and inventory [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Lithium Carbonate**: The short - term fundamentals are good, but the demand may weaken in Q1 next year, limiting price increases. After the demand weakens, the price may correct, and it is advisable to buy on dips [18]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has no prominent supply - demand contradictions and can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate, influenced by policy expectations and supply - demand relationships [19]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: The supply pressure is large, and the demand is weak. The price is undervalued compared to the spot, which limits the decline. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [23][24]. - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar supply - demand situation is expected to be bearish. Before the large - scale arrival of new sugar, it is advisable to wait and see. In the long - term, there is still supply pressure [25][27]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak, and the futures price may oscillate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it is expected to decline. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [28]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. The inventory is low, and the price is high. The future consumption trend will be the focus [30]. - **Corn**: The spot price has rebounded, but the supply pressure is still accumulating. It is necessary to pay attention to the new - grain sales progress and the release of policy wheat [31]. - **Red Dates**: Temporarily wait and see. The weak spot market in the sales area has a negative impact on the new - date ordering price [32]. - **Pigs**: The supply pressure continues, and the demand is average. The spot price is likely to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to short the near - term contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: In the short - term, it is expected to be strongly volatile, but the long - term downward trend of oversupply remains unchanged. The price is affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand forecasts [35]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a supply - abundant and demand - weak structure. The short - term focus is on supply concerns after the sanctions on Russia [36]. - **Plastic**: The supply pressure is large, and it is expected to be weakly volatile. The current price provides some support for producers [36][37]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. The price may oscillate in the short - term, with supply in the peak season and support at the bottom [37]. - **Methanol**: The near - term contracts are expected to be weakly volatile, and the far - term contracts can be moderately long after the rebound drive appears. The supply pressure is large, and the inventory is high [38][39]. - **Caustic Soda**: Wait for long - position opportunities after a significant decline. Pay attention to the cost support. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is weak [40]. - **Asphalt**: The price fluctuation is expected to increase, and the focus is on the price bottom after the winter - storage game [41]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: It is expected to continue to be strong in the short - term, driven by improved supply - demand and market sentiment [42]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Although there are short - term positive factors, it is not advisable to chase the rise. Consider shorting at high prices in the medium - to - long - term [43]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. Observe the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot transactions [45]. - **Logs**: The fundamentals are weakly oscillating, and the price is under pressure. The inventory is expected to increase, and the market is in the off - season [46]. - **Urea**: Wait and see, subject to specific policies. The spot price is falling, and the futures price is oscillating [47]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The short - term price will oscillate within a range. Be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after the rebound [48].

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core View of the Report The global risk appetite has cooled due to hawkish signals from Fed officials and a slowdown in China's economic growth. The short - term upward macro - drive has weakened, and various asset classes are expected to show short - term oscillations. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and changes in Fed monetary policy expectations [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas, Fed officials oppose a December rate cut, reducing the market's December rate - cut expectation probability to 40%, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index and a cooling of global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic data in October was weaker than in September, and the central bank's liquidity - releasing measures were countered by the Fed's hawkish signals. The short - term macro - upward drive has weakened, with stock indices and government bonds expected to oscillate in the short term, and a cautious approach is recommended for both [2]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors such as semiconductor chips, consumer electronics, and artificial intelligence, the domestic stock market fell. With weaker economic data and Fed hawkish signals, the short - term upward macro - drive has weakened. Stock indices are expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - term cautious long - positions are advised [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market fell on Friday night. Affected by Fed officials' hawkish remarks, the short - term trend is oscillatory, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term cautious observation is recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips is advisable [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot market declined slightly on Friday, with the futures price oscillating at the bottom. Weak economic data and reduced demand have led to a short - term oscillation in the steel market, but the downside below 3000 points for rebar is limited [6]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore spot price was flat on Friday, with the futures price oscillating. Although iron - water production has slightly increased, the profitability of steel mills is decreasing, and the supply is still in surplus. The short - term trend is expected to be range - bound [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, with the silicon - iron futures price rebounding slightly and the silicon - manganese futures price weakening. With a slight decline in steel production, the demand for ferroalloys has decreased. The futures prices of both are expected to oscillate in the short term [7]. Chemicals - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash futures contract oscillated last week. Supply decreased marginally due to plant maintenance but remained ample, while demand improved slightly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [8]. - **Glass**: The glass futures contract oscillated weakly last week. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [8][9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US government's potential end of the shutdown, Fed officials' caution on rate cuts, and poor economic data have created a complex macro - environment. High copper inventories in the US and China are constraining prices, while a mine shutdown in Indonesia supports prices. The short - term trend is expected to be high - level oscillation [10]. - **Aluminum**: Affected by the decline in Fed rate - cut expectations and poor domestic economic data, the price of Shanghai aluminum fell on Friday. There may be further downside in the short term, and if expectations are not met later, the price may experience a significant correction [11]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short to medium term [12]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production of lithium carbonate has increased slightly, and the price of lithium concentrate has risen. The supply - demand situation is strong, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure should be watched [13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The production of industrial silicon has increased, and the demand is relatively stable. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate, with attention on cost support [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The downstream demand for polysilicon is weak, but there is policy support. The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips is recommended [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks support oil prices in the short term, but Fed hawkishness has led to a decline. The short - term spot market is weak, and the long - term outlook is bearish [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt remains low, with inventory gradually decreasing. The supply is still excessive, and attention should be paid to oil - price fluctuations [15]. - **PX**: The PX market is tight, with the PXN spread rising slightly. The short - term price is mainly driven by crude - oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **PTA**: The upward momentum of PTA has faded, and the downstream demand is weakening seasonally. The supply is high, and the medium - to - long - term pressure is bearish [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory of ethylene glycol has increased, and the downstream demand is decreasing. The price is expected to stop falling and oscillate [16][17]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has declined slightly, and the terminal demand is seasonally weakening. The medium - term trend is bearish, and short - selling on rebounds is advisable [17]. - **Methanol**: The inventory of methanol is rising, and the supply is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, waiting for positive factors [17]. - **PP**: The demand for polypropylene has improved slightly, but the supply growth is too fast, and the price is expected to continue to decline [17]. - **LLDPE**: The supply pressure of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The price is expected to remain under pressure [18]. - **Urea**: The supply of urea is high, and the demand is divided. The price is under downward pressure in the short term and may stabilize in the medium to long term [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The November USDA report was slightly bullish, but there is a risk of the bullish factors being exhausted. The price center may be higher than before [19]. - **Domestic Bean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply of domestic bean meal is loose, and it may weaken in the short term following the potential decline of US soybeans. Rapeseed meal may also enter a weak - oscillation phase [20][21]. - **Edible Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil is weak, but the price is stable. Rapeseed oil is expected to be strong due to inventory reduction and policy support. Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [21]. - **Corn**: The inventory of corn is low, and the market has a bullish sentiment. The futures price may repair the basis and rise steadily [22]. - **Hogs**: The current pig price is weak, and the supply is still excessive. The short - term price is expected to oscillate weakly, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [22].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——软银突然暴跌！曾与黄仁勋"相拥而泣"，68岁日本首富孙正义再次清仓英 伟达，套现押注OpenAI，提前入账80亿美元利润藏"猫腻" （记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，国创高新市值为29亿元。 每经AI快讯，国创高新（SZ 002377，收盘价：3.19元）11月16日晚间发布公告称，持有公司股份约 4582万股（占公司总股本比例为5%）的大股东黄宇，计划在本公告披露之日起15个交易日后3个月内 （2025年12月9日至2026年3月8日），以集中竞价方式减持公司股份不超过约916万股。 2025年1至6月份，国创高新的营业收入构成为：沥青行业占比97.37%，工程占比2.63%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/ bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆☆, similar to crude oil, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★☆☆, same as above [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, with a bias but limited operability [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability and a wait - and - see approach [1] Core Viewpoints - The global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively, and the surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year [1] - The fuel oil market is affected by geopolitical factors, and the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has improved fundamentals [2] - The 2601 asphalt contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton, and the fundamental bearish factors still suppress the market in the medium - to - long term [3] - The LPG market is expected to fluctuate strongly due to tightened supply - demand margins [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Based on the latest adjustments of the supply - demand balance sheets by three major institutions in November, considering OPEC+ suspending production increases and strictly implementing production cut compensation in the first quarter of next year, the global oil market will have supply surpluses of 1.84 million barrels per day and 3.31 million barrels per day this year and next year respectively. The supply surplus will gradually expand quarter by quarter, and the most relaxed quarter (Q1 next year) has not arrived yet. Since the fourth quarter, the inventory accumulation rate of global oil at 2.4% has exceeded that of the previous three quarters, and the supply surplus is increasingly evident in the inventory. There is still a downward risk in the crude oil market this year, and attention should be paid to the realization of geopolitical risks related to Venezuela [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The drone attack on Russia's Novorossiysk today damaged the oil terminal facilities, driving up the prices of crude - related products, and fuel oil followed suit. In terms of fundamentals, high - sulfur fuel oil is still supported by geopolitical factors in the short term. Sanctions and attacks on Russia continue to disrupt the supply side, and the possible further sanctions on Venezuela by the US also bring uncertainties. However, the actual reduction in supply needs further observation. The demand side is at the end of the power - generation peak season, and the increase in Middle - East supply offsets the impact, and the demand for refinery feedstock is also weak, so the upward drive for high - sulfur cracking is limited. The low - sulfur market has seen a relief in supply pressure due to unstable operation of overseas refineries. The strengthening of the crack spreads of gasoline and diesel provides support from the perspective of production conversion. Coupled with the peak season of bunker fuel demand in the fourth quarter and the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the fundamentals have improved compared with the previous period [2] Asphalt - The 2601 contract has some support at 3000 yuan/ton. The worse - than - expected shipment volume not only disproves the expectation of rush - demand in the final year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" but also sends a negative signal that the demand is lower than the same period last year. The destocking of the latest commercial inventory continues to slow down, and the year - on - year increase in social inventory has widened after reaching an inflection point of being higher than the same period last year at the end of October. In the medium - to - long term, the bearish fundamentals still suppress the BU market [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international LPG market has been trending strongly recently, and the supply of imported resources is tight. The improved profitability of butane dehydrogenation plants has boosted the enthusiasm of downstream chemical enterprises to start production, and the significant cooling in many places has led to an improvement in combustion - end demand. The storage capacity utilization rates of refineries and ports have decreased. The tightening of supply - demand margins has boosted the LPG market to be regarded as fluctuating strongly [3]

每经AI快讯，国创高新（SZ 002377，收盘价：3.19元）11月14日晚间发布公告称，截至本公告披露 日，公司对外担保余额为1.88亿元，占公司最近一期经审计净资产的40.08%，其中公司为全资子公司提 供担保1.1亿元，全资子公司为公司提供担保5000万元，全资子公司宁波国沛为涉及诉讼的关联方提供 担保2800万元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五"|专访财科院院长杨志勇：遏制地方政府新增隐性债务，债务 信息要透明，尽可能降低利息成本 （记者 王晓波） 2025年1至6月份，国创高新的营业收入构成为：沥青行业占比97.37%，工程占比2.63%。 截至发稿，国创高新市值为29亿元。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——展望"十五五"|专访财科院院长杨志勇：遏制地方政府新增隐性债务，债务 信息要透明，尽可能降低利息成本 （记者 王晓波） 每经AI快讯，国创高新（SZ 002377，收盘价：3.19元）11月14日晚间发布公告称，公司第七届第二十 一次董事会会议于2025年11月13日在公司以通讯方式召开。会议审议了《关于取消监事会并修订 <公司 章程> 及相关议事规则的议案》等文件。 截至发稿，国创高新市值为29亿元。 2025年1至6月份，国创高新的营业收入构成为：沥青行业占比97.37%，工程占比2.63%。 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] 2. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific overall industry investment rating is provided. However, individual product trends and potential investment suggestions are given: - For crude oil, it is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. - For asphalt, it is suggested to try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. - For polyester (PTA and ethylene glycol), PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. - For short - fiber, the price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. - For polyolefins, the price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. - For soda ash, the short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. - For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. - For polysilicon, it is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. - For pulp, it is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184]. 3. Core Views - The energy and chemical industry is generally affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and policy expectations. Most products face supply - side pressure, and the demand side shows different degrees of weakness. Crude oil and related products are affected by global supply - demand imbalances, while some chemical products are affected by industry - specific factors such as production capacity changes and downstream demand trends [8][30][85]. 4. Summary by Product Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: International oil prices fluctuated with a downward trend. WTI and SC prices decreased slightly, while Brent increased slightly. The market is in a situation of supply surplus in the 4th quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026 [7]. - **Supply**: OPEC + supply release is relatively stable, but the suspension of production increase in the 1st quarter of 2026 has limited support. Non - OPEC supply continues to increase, and the supply surplus is deepening [9][11]. - **Demand**: EIA and IEA expect global demand growth to be mainly driven by non - OECD countries, but the growth rate is relatively slow compared to supply growth [10][11]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Take a short - term bearish approach, such as shorting on rebounds or using reverse spreads [8]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: Futures prices declined slightly, and spot prices in various regions also decreased. The cost side is affected by the weakening of the crude oil market, and the demand side in the northern region has declined significantly [29]. - **Supply**: Some refineries plan to adjust production or conduct maintenance, and the operating rate is expected to decline slightly [29][32]. - **Demand**: The demand in the northern region has decreased significantly due to weather factors, and the demand in the southern region has also declined marginally [29][33]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try shorting as the price is expected to decline [30]. Polyester (PTA and Ethylene Glycol) - **Market Performance**: PTA cost support was strong first and then weak, and ethylene glycol prices oscillated downward [55]. - **Supply**: PTA supply is expected to be sufficient, and ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase with the restart of some devices and new device trials [55][56]. - **Demand**: The demand for polyester is stable in the short term but has a weakening expectation in the future [56]. - **Operation Suggestion**: PTA is expected to decline slightly, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is better to wait and see [56]. Short - fiber - **Market Performance**: The price of polyester short - fiber in the East China market declined oscillatingly last week [67]. - **Supply**: The supply is sufficient, and the operating rate is expected to remain stable [67][69]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand is weak, and the support for short - fiber is gradually weakening [68][69]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to be weak, and it is advisable to wait and see [67]. Polyolefins - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined slightly. The market is in a situation of bottom - oscillating due to supply - demand contradictions and cost - side pressure [73][84]. - **Supply**: The new production capacity is gradually released, and the production is expected to increase. Some maintenance devices will restart, and the production loss will decrease [85][86]. - **Demand**: The peak season is over, and the demand is expected to weaken. The downstream mainly conducts just - in - time procurement, and the demand support is weak [85]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The price is expected to remain under pressure and oscillate at the bottom. Although there may be short - term replenishment demand, it is mainly a weak support [85]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash oscillated strongly, and the price fluctuated slightly. The production decreased slightly, and the demand increased slightly [114]. - **Supply**: The overall supply is loose, and the new production capacity is expected to be released in the future, increasing the supply pressure [119]. - **Demand**: The demand from downstream glass industries is weak, and the inventory of glass is high, which may further reduce the demand for soda ash [131][132]. - **Operation Suggestion**: The short - term is expected to oscillate strongly, and it is recommended to wait for policy implementation for trading [115]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Performance**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillated after a short - term rise. The price is affected by factors such as production reduction in the southwest region and news in the photovoltaic industry [147]. - **Supply**: The production in the southwest region has decreased due to factors such as power cost increases, and the overall supply is affected [148]. - **Demand**: The demand from the polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon industries has different trends. The demand from the polycrystalline silicon industry is relatively stable, while the organic silicon industry plans to reduce production [149][150]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see as the price oscillates due to the balance of long and short factors [147]. Polysilicon - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated with a weak start and then a strong end. The price is affected by policy expectations and market news [164]. - **Supply**: The supply is still higher than the demand, and the actual production reduction needs to be observed [165]. - **Demand**: The terminal demand has not recovered from the weak stage, and the price increase of polysilicon is limited by the downstream acceptance [165][168]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see and conduct right - side trading after policy implementation [165]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: The futures price of pulp increased slightly, and the spot price of imported pulp also increased. The short - term trend is strong, but there is pressure at the previous high [183]. - **Supply**: The supply pressure from domestic and foreign pulp mills is still released to the domestic market, and the inventory has increased [184]. - **Demand**: The performance of downstream base papers is still differentiated, and the packaging paper market is good, while other base paper prices are stable [184]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is recommended to wait and see due to the short - term strong trend but the pressure at the previous high [184].