Group 1 - The focus of the brokerage strategy discussions this week is on the upcoming trade agreement progress and the sustainability of the "anti-involution" sector [1][2] - The Huaxi strategy team indicates that the core pricing in the global market is centered around the trade agreement progress on July 9, with potential tariff extensions being a negotiation tactic [1][3] - The A-share market is expected to maintain an upward trend, with two main lines of focus: positive mid-term performance expectations in sectors like wind power, thermal power, and robotics, and the potential for domestic chains to catch up following Nvidia's overseas breakthroughs [1][3] Group 2 - The Dongfang strategy team notes that the market previously viewed the July 9 tariff as a negligible short-term risk, but it may escalate into a core issue next week, leading to a volatile market [1][3] - The Zhongyin strategy team emphasizes that the current liquidity environment supports the market, and as the third quarter progresses, domestic demand expectations may improve if tariff policies do not experience unexpected fluctuations [1][3] - The Xuch team's analysis suggests that "expectation management" is a key tool in the "anti-involution" policy, with limited space for further capacity clearance in traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel due to already high industry concentration [2][4] Group 3 - The market is currently in a state of fluctuation, with the potential for increased volatility in the coming weeks due to the expiration of the 90-day tariff grace period and the implications of the "Great Beautiful Act" [5] - The overall sentiment in the A-share market is that the liquidity environment remains a primary support factor, with expectations for recovery in domestic demand as price pressures ease and policies are implemented [5] - The current cycle of capacity reduction is crucial, but its short-term impact on profitability may be limited if demand does not show signs of recovery [4][5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual energy and chemical products, ratings such as "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" are used based on the expected price movements within the next 2 - 12 weeks [268]. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical market currently lacks a clear mainline. The increase in the Caixin Manufacturing PMI reflects the boost from the suspension of the Sino - US trade war, but the employment and raw material inventory indexes are relatively weak. The progress of the US - Iran negotiation has stagnated, which may disrupt the crude oil market again. The overall chemical industry continues to oscillate, and factors like the Caixin PMI index and device start - stop news are used for short - term trading. The report suggests an oscillating approach towards the energy and chemical market, waiting for new supply - demand drivers [1][2]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Middle East exports increased significantly in June, and the market is waiting for the OPEC+ meeting's production resolution this weekend. On July 1st, international oil prices rose, and the market is concerned about the OPEC+ meeting. Saudi Arabia's June crude oil exports increased by 450,000 barrels per day to 6.33 million barrels per day. Brazil's May oil and gas production increased year - on - year, and Kazakhstan's June crude oil production recovered and reached a historical high. The US API data shows a decrease in total oil inventory, which is beneficial for oil prices. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [4]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading the loose fundamentals, and the PG market may oscillate weakly. On July 1st, 2025, the PG 2508 contract closed at 4,200 yuan/ton. The supply - demand pattern is loose, with increasing liquefied gas and civil gas volumes, low downstream replenishment willingness during the off - season, and limited follow - up increments in chemical demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price oscillates, waiting for negative factors to materialize. The futures price follows the crude oil price, and factors such as OPEC+ potential over - production in August, increased supply from Venezuela and Iran, and weak demand may put pressure on the asphalt price. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [4][5]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to fully materialize. OPEC+ may over - produce in August, and the decrease in natural gas prices may reduce the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The increase in heavy oil supply and the weakening of geopolitical factors are negative for high - sulfur fuel oil. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [6]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil price follows the crude oil price down. It is affected by factors such as the weakening of the gasoline - diesel spread, shipping demand decline, and green energy substitution. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly, following the crude oil price [7]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price has weakened significantly, and methanol oscillates. On July 1st, the methanol price oscillated. The domestic main production areas showed a weak downward trend, with increased port inventory and weakening basis. The coal price has an impact on production costs, and the MTO profit is low. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [16][17]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, and it depends on exports. On July 1st, the urea price was stable. The domestic demand is weak, and the market is mainly trading the supply - demand imbalance. The export is expected to drive the market. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, waiting for new market drivers [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: With low inventory, it continues to oscillate and consolidate. On July 1st, the ethylene glycol price was weak, and the basis strengthened. The future arrival volume is expected to increase, and the shutdown of a bottle - chip device will reduce the demand. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [12]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil is temporarily stable, and PX oscillates strongly. On July 1st, the PX price and related indicators are given. In the short term, the cost of PX may weaken due to the potential weakening of crude oil, and the supply - demand side is affected by device maintenance. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [9]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakens, and the cost - side PX is strong, so PTA oscillates. On July 1st, the PTA price and processing fees are provided. The crude oil price may decline, which has a weak impact on PTA. The supply is tight, but the demand from downstream factories may decrease. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the supply - demand margin weakening but following the cost - side in the short term [9]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The short - fiber processing fee is supported, the basis is stable, and the absolute value follows the raw material's fluctuations. On July 1st, the short - fiber futures performed better than the raw material PTA. The industry has no major contradictions, and the key is whether the recent weak sales will continue. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [13][14]. Bottle - Chip - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually started, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out. On July 1st, the polyester raw material futures declined slightly, and the bottle - chip market was active. The reduction in supply due to maintenance limits the further decline of the processing fee. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with the absolute value following the raw material and limited further compression of the processing fee [14][15]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance increase is limited, and PP oscillates in the short term. On July 1st, the PP price oscillated, and the basis was stable. The cost is affected by the crude oil price, the supply is increasing, and the demand from downstream industries is weak. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [21][22]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The maintenance support is limited, and plastic oscillates. On July 1st, the LLDPE price oscillated weakly, and the basis strengthened. The decline in oil prices, the increase in supply, and the weak demand from downstream industries are the main factors. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating [20]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: In the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene oscillates narrowly. On July 1st, the styrene price declined, and the basis strengthened. The supply is increasing, the demand is weakening, and the pure - benzene fundamentals are marginally improving. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly [10]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC oscillates. The macro - level risk preference has improved, but the long - term supply - demand fundamentals are under pressure due to new capacity, off - season demand, and limited export growth. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating, with a bearish supply - demand expectation and a preference for short - selling [23]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine is under pressure, and caustic soda rebounds weakly. The short - term price oscillates, supported by improved risk preference and increased cost, but pressured by the bearish supply - demand expectation in July - August. - **Mid - term Outlook**: Oscillating weakly in the short term, with a preference for short - selling in the long term [24]. Group 4: Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc., are provided, showing different changes [26]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipt data of asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc., are given, with corresponding changes [27]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc., are presented, showing different changes [29]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring - The report mentions monitoring for methanol, urea, styrene, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, bottle - chip, asphalt, crude oil, LPG, fuel oil, LLDPE, PP, PVC, and caustic soda but does not provide specific data summaries in the content [30][42][53].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides mid - term outlooks for individual energy and chemical products, including "oscillating weakly", "oscillating", "oscillating strongly", etc., based on the defined rating standards in the report [269]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical factors affecting crude oil will gradually fade, and the market will focus on the US trade war and OPEC+ production plans. Crude oil is expected to remain stable, while the chemical industry may show a relatively strong oscillating pattern. Most chemical products have positive basis, and as July approaches, the convergence of futures and spot prices will support these products [1][2]. - Overall, the energy and chemical industry should be viewed through an oscillating perspective, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views - **Crude Oil**: The rebound strength is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. After the geopolitical concerns ease, the oil price will return to the supply - surplus fundamental line, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [5]. - **LPG**: The geopolitical situation has eased, and LPG is expected to oscillate weakly. The overall supply - demand pattern is still relatively loose, and the market may return to fundamental - driven [9]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of production increase is strong, and the asphalt futures price will continue to decline following crude oil. The asphalt price is over - estimated, and the monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [6]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and the fuel oil futures price may continue to decline under pressure. The supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases, and the price is likely to oscillate weakly [7]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price will decline following crude oil. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, and is expected to follow the crude oil price fluctuations at a low valuation [9]. - **Methanol**: The situation between Iran and Israel has eased, and methanol is expected to oscillate. The support for the futures price from the previous geopolitical situation has weakened, and the domestic market is relatively stable [19]. - **Urea**: Relying on exports to balance the domestic supply - demand gap, urea may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply pressure has eased slightly, and the export situation is favorable [20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (EG)**: The supply shock is gradually increasing, but the inventory level is low, and the probability of a downward trend is small. It is recommended that investors conduct short - term range operations [14]. - **PX**: The supply is tight, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments. The fundamentals are good, and it is expected to be strong in the short term due to production - cut news [11]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation has weakened marginally, but the current situation is still okay, and the cost is relatively strong. It is expected to follow the cost side and show a relatively strong performance in the short term [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is in a healthy state, and the spot processing fee has increased slightly. The processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the upward movement of crude oil drives the energy and chemical market [15]. - **Bottle Chips**: The price follows the raw materials, and the production cut has started. The further compression space of the spot processing fee is limited [17]. - **PP**: The oil price oscillates, and PP will follow in the short term. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is relatively weak [25]. - **Plastic**: The geopolitical premium has declined, and it is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure is high, and the downstream demand is weak [24]. - **Styrene**: The geopolitical situation has cooled down, and styrene has declined. The supply is returning, and the demand is weakening, but the inventory level is low [13]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC is expected to oscillate. The cost center is rising, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. - **Caustic Soda**: The dynamic cost is rising, and caustic soda will oscillate temporarily. The supply is expected to increase, and the long - term supply - demand outlook is pessimistic [27]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and changes of inter - period spreads for various products such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. For example, the M1 - M2 spread of Brent is 1.17 with a change of - 0.08 [28]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: It shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of different products. For instance, the basis of asphalt is 242 with a change of 1, and the number of warehouse receipts is 98360 [29]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and changes of inter - variety spreads, like the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread is - 246 with a change of - 21 [30].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - A-shares: Bullish in the short term [1] - Treasury bonds: Limited upside in the short term [1] - Gold: Volatile [1] - Silver: Volatile [1] - **Non-ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish in the short term [1] - Aluminum: Volatile [1] - Alumina: Volatile [1] - Nickel: Volatile, limited upside in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Stainless steel: Bullish in the short term, bearish in the long term [1] - Tin: Bearish in the short term, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - Industrial silicon: Bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bearish [1] - **Black Metals**: - Rebar: No upward momentum [1] - Hot-rolled coil: No upward momentum [1] - Iron ore: Volatile [1] - Coking coal: Bearish [1] - Coke: Bearish [1] - Glass: Bearish [1] - Soda ash: Bearish [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm oil: Bearish [1] - Soybean oil: Bearish [1] - Cotton: Bearish [1] - Sugar: Potential for higher production [1] - Corn: Bullish in the medium term [1] - Pulp: Bearish [1] - Raw silk: Neutral [1] - Live pigs: Stable [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] - Asphalt: Bearish [1] - BR rubber: Bearish in the short term [1] - PTA: Bearish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bearish [1] - Short fiber: Bearish [1] - Pure benzene: Volatile [1] - Styrene: Volatile [1] - PVC: Bearish [1] - Caustic soda: Volatile [1] - LPG: Bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the A-share market has good liquidity, geopolitical conflicts have significantly eased, and overseas disturbances have weakened, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - The improvement in market risk appetite may put short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties such as geopolitics and tariffs remain high, so gold prices are expected to fluctuate [1] - The Fed's dovish remarks and the opening of the re-export window may lead to a further decline in copper inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - The low inventory of domestic electrolytic aluminum and the off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - The supply of some non-ferrous metals is expected to recover, and demand shows signs of weakening, so attention should be paid to shorting opportunities at high levels [1] - The improvement in macro sentiment requires attention to tariff progress and economic data at home and abroad [1] - The supply of some agricultural products is affected by various factors, and the market shows different trends, such as the potential decline in Brazilian sugar production due to the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio [1] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, Trump's energy policy is negative for crude oil, and the long-term supply and demand tend to be loose [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **A-shares**: Short-term liquidity is good, geopolitical conflicts ease, and overseas disturbances weaken, so the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly [1] - **Treasury bonds**: The weak economy is beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's warning on interest rate risks restricts the upward space in the short term [1] - **Gold**: Market risk appetite improves, putting short-term pressure on gold prices, but uncertainties keep prices volatile [1] - **Silver**: Silver prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1] Non-ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Fed's dovish remarks and re-export window may lead to lower inventories, so copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and off-season demand result in volatile aluminum prices [1] - **Alumina**: Spot price decline and production increase put pressure on the futures price, but the discount limits the downside [1] - **Nickel**: High nickel ore premium and inventory increase limit the short-term upside, and long-term oversupply remains a concern [1] - **Stainless steel**: Short-term futures may rebound, but the sustainability is uncertain, and long-term supply pressure exists [1] - **Tin**: Short-term pressure from photovoltaic production cuts, potential upside from oil price increase [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes, demand is low, and inventory pressure is huge [1] - **Polysilicon**: Downstream production declines, and supply reduction is not obvious [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Falling ore prices and high downstream inventory lead to weak buying [1] Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot-rolled coil**: In the transition from peak to off-season, cost weakens, and supply-demand is loose, with no upward momentum [1] - **Iron ore**: Iron water may peak, and supply may increase in June, so attention should be paid to steel pressure [1] - **Coking coal and Coke**: Supply surplus exists, and the rebound space is limited [1] - **Glass**: Supply and demand are weak, and prices continue to decline [1] - **Soda ash**: Maintenance resumes, supply surplus is a concern, and demand is weak, so prices are under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm oil and Soybean oil**: After the decline of crude oil, the supply-demand is weak, and prices are expected to fall [1] - **Cotton**: Domestic cotton prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to consumption off-season and inventory accumulation [1] - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production is expected to increase, and the change in the sugar-to-ethanol ratio may affect production [1] - **Corn**: Short-term price is affected by auction news, but the medium-term outlook is bullish [1] - **Pulp**: In the demand off-season, it is bearish after the positive news fades [1] - **Raw silk**: High持仓 and intense capital game lead to large fluctuations, so it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Live pigs**: Inventory is abundant, and futures prices are stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil and Fuel oil**: Geopolitical cooling, Trump's energy policy, and long-term supply-demand loosening are negative factors [1] - **Asphalt**: Cost drag, potential tax refund increase, and slow demand recovery [1] - **BR rubber**: Temporary stability due to geopolitical cooling, but weak fundamentals in the short term [1] - **PTA, Ethylene glycol, and Short fiber**: Affected by the decline of crude oil and other factors, prices are bearish [1] - **Pure benzene and Styrene**: Volatile due to market sentiment and supply-demand changes [1] - **PVC**: Supply pressure increases due to the end of maintenance and the entry of new devices, so prices are bearish [1] - **Caustic soda**: Maintenance is almost over, and attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1] - **LPG**: Geopolitical relief, seasonal off-season, and inflow of low-cost foreign goods lead to downward pressure [1]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. Core Views - The market is significantly affected by the Israel - Iran cease - fire news. Crude oil prices have dropped sharply as the geopolitical risk premium fades. Different energy and chemical products will gradually return to fundamental - driven pricing, with varying trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [1][2]. - For most products, short - term market trends are influenced by geopolitical factors, and mid - to long - term trends are determined by supply - demand relationships, production capacity changes, and cost factors. Summary by Commodity Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 closed at $68.51, down $5.33 (-7.22%); Brent2508 closed at $71.48, down $5.53 (-7.18%); SC2508 closed at 537.7 yuan/barrel after night trading [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Market prices in response to the cooling of geopolitical conflicts. If geopolitical conflicts ease, crude oil will return to fundamental pricing, with short - term trading on third - quarter peak - season expectations and long - term trading on the contradiction of increased supply - demand surplus under OPEC+ continuous production increases. The expected trading range for Brent in the third quarter is $60 - 72 per barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility, with Brent trading in the range of $66 - 72 per barrel. Pay attention to the certainty of the Middle - East cease - fire [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3737 points (-1.16%) at night; BU2512 closed at 3574 points (-1.27%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: After the sharp drop in oil prices, the upward cost - driven factor for asphalt disappeared. The short - term supply - demand situation is weak, and inventory is lower than the same period. The price of the BU main contract is expected to range from 3600 to 3750 [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak and volatile. The spread between asphalt and crude oil will rebound [5]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2507 closed at 4538 (-0.42%) at night; PG2508 closed at 4522 (-0.18%) at night. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in oil prices, the supply of LPG decreased slightly last week, and the international shipping volume decreased. The combustion - end demand is expected to be weak, while the chemical - sector demand is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are relatively loose, and the price is expected to decline [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price of LPG is expected to be weak [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 closed at 3341 (-0.83%) at night; LU08 closed at 3988 (-0.05%) at night. Singapore paper - cargo spreads changed [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil trading remains active, with high - sulfur cracking supported by geopolitical factors and peak - season power - generation demand. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing, but downstream demand is weak. The price of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported, while low - sulfur fuel oil needs to be observed for further trends [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Consider taking profit on the positive spread of FU9 - 1 [11]. Natural Gas - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory accumulation was lower than expected. Production increased slightly, demand was at a historical high, and LNG export volume was 14.2 bcf/d. European natural gas prices decreased due to the cease - fire news. The price of natural gas is expected to rise [11][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at dips and be bullish on TTF [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 7076 (-0.70%) at night. Spot prices increased, and PXN was $264/ton, up $8/ton [13][14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Many PX plants have maintenance plans or production cuts, and the Asian PX operating rate has declined recently, resulting in tight supply. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [14][15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4986 (-0.52%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some PTA plants have reduced production or shut down, and the operating rate has decreased. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but profits have been compressed. The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Long PX and short PTA for spreads [15][16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4454 (-1.04%) at night. Spot basis and prices changed [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic and foreign plants have restarted or increased production, and the operating rate has increased significantly. Downstream polyester operating rate has increased, but terminal demand has weakened. The supply - demand pattern in June and July is still tight, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [17][18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2508 closed at 6796 (-0.44%) at night. Spot prices increased, but downstream was mostly waiting and watching [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply has increased and demand has decreased recently, but production and sales are stable, and processing fees have increased. Some large factories have tight supply, and processing fees are expected to be strongly supported. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations. Short PTA and long PF for spreads [19][20]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: PR2509 closed at 6172 (-0.58%) at night. Spot market trading was okay [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Some bottle - chip plants have increased production, and inventory has risen. Some plants have plans to reduce production or shut down. The price is expected to fluctuate widely following raw materials [20][21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [20][21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2508 closed at 7486 (-1.28%) at night. Spot prices and basis changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure - benzene prices are expected to be stable and slightly strong. Styrene supply has increased, and downstream operating rate is at a seasonal low. The price is mainly guided by cost factors and is expected to fluctuate widely [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wide - range fluctuations [22]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE prices fluctuated, and PP prices were relatively stable [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Previous price increases were affected by Middle - East geopolitics. After the cease - fire news, oil prices dropped, and plastic PP is expected to open lower. In the medium term, supply - demand is expected to be weak, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Open lower. Short - sell on rallies, paying attention to the certainty of the cease - fire and oil prices [25]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **PVC Market Review**: PVC prices were slightly adjusted, and trading was light [27]. - **PVC Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is still dragged down by the real - estate market. The medium - to long - term supply - demand is in surplus, and a short - selling strategy on rebounds is recommended [29]. - **Caustic Soda Logic Analysis**: The 09 contract of caustic soda is expected to be weak. Demand is expected to have no significant increase in the medium term, and new production capacity is expected to be put into operation. A short - selling strategy is recommended [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell caustic soda and PVC. Hold the 8 - 10 reverse spread for caustic soda [31][32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1009 yuan/ton (+0.20%) at night. Spot prices changed slightly [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, and demand is affected by the real - estate market. The price is expected to be weak in the short term. Pay attention to cost reduction and plant cold - repair [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Sell out - of - the - money call options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda - ash 09 contract closed at 1170 yuan/ton (-0.3%) at night. Spot prices fluctuated slightly [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and demand from downstream photovoltaic glass is expected to decline. Inventory has increased, and costs have decreased. A short - selling strategy is recommended [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell soda ash. Sell out - of - the - money call options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1711 (-2%). Spot prices declined, and trading was weak [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, and domestic demand is declining. International prices are strong, and export orders have increased, but the market is still expected to be weak in the short term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options on rebounds [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2469 (-1.71%). Spot prices in different regions varied [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply has tightened, but domestic supply is loose. Downstream demand is stable, and port inventory is increasing. The price is expected to decline in the short term [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak trend. Sell call options [39]. Logs - **Market Review**: Log prices in some regions increased slightly, and the main contract price rose [39][40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand is still weak, and the market faces challenges in the medium - to long - term. The futures market is supported by delivery rules. [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for single - side trading. Pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [42]. Double - Coated Paper - **Market Review**: The double - coated paper market was stable with some declines. Trading was general [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: Industry profitability is low, production has decreased, but inventory pressure is still high. Demand is weak, and pulp prices provide limited support [43]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated and box - board paper prices declined slightly, and trading was weak [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may be reduced, demand is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline slightly in the next period [45]. Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures declined. Spot prices of different types of pulp changed [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic paper production has increased, and Taiwan's paper production has declined. The price of the SP main contract is expected to be affected negatively [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the SP 09 contract. Hold the 5*SP2509 - 2*NR2509 spread [47]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: RU09 closed at 13835 (-0.82%); NR08 closed at 12020 (+0.08%). Spot prices of different types of rubber changed [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Vietnam's rubber industry faces challenges from EU regulations. Domestic inventory shows different trends. [49]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see for the RU09 contract. Hold short positions on the NR08 contract. Adjust stop - loss levels [50]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR08 closed at 11440 (-0.13%). Spot prices of butadiene rubber and related products changed [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: Domestic butadiene rubber inventory is increasing. Some tire projects are being invested [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - sell a small amount of the BR08 contract. Hold the BR2508 - NR2508 spread. Sell the BR2508 call 12200 contract [52][53].