Core Viewpoint - The belief that U.S. Treasury bonds are a safe haven is facing unprecedented challenges due to rising yields and concerns over fiscal deficits and debt levels [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Reactions - In late May, the yields on 20-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds surpassed the critical psychological level of 5.1%, leading to a significant sell-off in the long-term bond market [1]. - Fitch Ratings has warned that even if the U.S. fiscal deficit improves temporarily in 2025, it is expected to widen again, with debt-to-GDP ratio projected to reach 120% by 2026, significantly higher than the median for AA-rated countries [1][2]. Group 2: Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy - Current inflation is expected to remain around 4%, well above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, which complicates the Fed's decision-making process regarding interest rates [2][3]. - The Fed is anticipated to only lower interest rates once in the fourth quarter of this year, maintaining a cautious stance despite a projected economic slowdown [2][3]. Group 3: Economic Indicators and Business Sentiment - There is a noticeable decline in "soft data" related to business investment and hiring intentions, indicating weakening market sentiment [4]. - However, "hard data" such as unemployment claims and monthly employment reports do not yet show significant negative impacts on the labor market [4][5]. Group 4: Trade Uncertainty and Investment Outlook - Policy uncertainty has surged, affecting consumer and business spending decisions, with companies likely to delay investment decisions [5][6]. - The impact of trade uncertainties and inflation pressures is expected to suppress corporate willingness to initiate new projects, potentially leading to slower investment growth and reduced productivity in the medium term [5][6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the emergence of Egan-Jones as a significant player in the private credit rating market, raising concerns about the quality and reliability of its ratings [1][4] - Egan-Jones has been criticized for its rapid rating process, which contrasts sharply with traditional agencies, potentially leading to inflated ratings and financial risks [2][4] Group 1: Egan-Jones Ratings - Egan-Jones completed over 3,000 private credit ratings in 2024 with a team of only about 20 analysts, making it the most active player in this market [1][2] - The company provides initial assessments within 24 hours and formal ratings in less than five days, often accompanied by minimal justification [2][4] - Some optimistic ratings from Egan-Jones have proven to be highly inaccurate, with instances of companies defaulting shortly after receiving favorable ratings [2][3] Group 2: Market Impact and Reactions - Egan-Jones's ratings have facilitated the transfer of complex debts to insurance companies managing millions of policyholders' retirement savings, with total exposure to private credit investments nearing $1 trillion [3] - Major investment firms like BlackRock and Apollo Global Management have excluded Egan-Jones from their acceptable credit rating agency lists, indicating a growing skepticism towards its ratings [4] - A report from the National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) revealed that ratings from smaller agencies like Egan-Jones are, on average, three levels higher than internal valuations, potentially underestimating financial risks [4]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Analysts from Swissquote Bank indicate that improved global economic growth expectations may enhance investor confidence, leading to a potential rise in major stock indices as corporate earnings outlook improves and risk appetite increases [1] - The lifting of tariffs could reduce friction costs in international trade, promoting operational efficiency for multinational companies and boosting overall economic activity [1] - The US dollar is expected to attract investment as risk aversion diminishes and economic growth prospects improve [1] Group 2: Impact of US Court Ruling on Tariffs - Moody's analysts highlight that the US court's decision to block tariff increases is a positive development for emerging markets severely affected by high reciprocal tariffs, as it may alleviate the cost burden on exports [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the government's potential appeal against the court ruling may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach before making significant investment decisions [2][3] Group 3: Regional Economic Indicators - Westpac Banking's economists report a significant decline in New Zealand's business confidence index from 49.3% in April to 36.6%, indicating heightened concerns over trade conflicts [2] - The construction sector experienced the largest drop in confidence, reflecting specific challenges faced by the industry [2] - The Korean International Trade Association anticipates a reduction in the trade surplus between South Korea and the US, projecting a surplus of $55.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Analysts from ABC Refinery note that the US court ruling has led to a significant rise in the US dollar, which in turn has pressured gold prices lower [4] - Goldman Sachs suggests that traditional 60/40 investment portfolios face greater challenges amid rising global macro uncertainty, recommending increased allocations to gold and oil to enhance portfolio resilience [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent credit rating reports from S&P and Moody's reflect a stable outlook for Hong Kong's economy, highlighting its robust fiscal position and improving economic prospects. Group 1: Fiscal Resilience - As of March 2025, Hong Kong's fiscal reserves reached HKD 758 billion, equivalent to approximately 22 months of government expenditure, with total government debt to GDP ratio maintained at a low 4.5% [3][4] - The official foreign exchange reserves stood at USD 425 billion by April 2025, providing a solid backing for the linked exchange rate system, which enhances Hong Kong's unique advantage amid global financial volatility [3] Group 2: Economic Recovery - In Q1 2025, Hong Kong's GDP grew by 3.1% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 2.8%, driven by a recovery in tourism, a 12.5% increase in service exports, a 4.3% rise in private consumption, and a 5.7% growth in fixed asset investment [5][7] - The government forecasts an annual economic growth of 3.0%-4.0% for 2025, reflecting increased confidence in the economic outlook [7] Group 3: Financial Market Stability - The banking system's capital adequacy ratio remains high at 21.3%, significantly above international regulatory requirements, indicating a stable financial environment [9] - Hong Kong's new stock fundraising exceeded HKD 76 billion, a more than sevenfold increase compared to the same period last year, while the bond market reached a historic high of over HKD 4 trillion [9] - Offshore RMB deposits grew by 8% in the first four months of 2025, reaching HKD 1.25 trillion, reinforcing Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore RMB business hub globally [9] Group 4: Analyst Insights - Analysts from JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs noted that Moody's outlook adjustment aligns with expectations, indicating Hong Kong's resilience in maintaining financial stability amid global monetary policy divergence [10][11] - The Hong Kong government emphasized that the rating agencies' decisions reflect the region's ability to navigate global economic uncertainties, supported by ongoing high-level opening-up policies and advancements in technology and green transformation [11]

周三（5月28日）欧洲时段，黄金价格周三陷入盘整偏弱格局，因美元延续反弹、市场风险偏好情绪升 温，打压避险需求。尽管亚盘初略有回升，但现货黄金未能站稳3300美元，显示上方阻力依旧强劲。特 朗普推迟对欧盟征收50%关税至7月9日，短期内增强了风险偏好情绪，削弱了黄金避险需求。不过，贸 易政策仍存在重大不确定性，加上美国财政状况持续恶化以及地缘政治风险持续，为金价提供部分支 撑。 此外，路透社透露的数据显示，4月份中国通过香港的黄金净进口量比3月份增加了一倍多，达到自2024 年3月以来的最高水平。同时，根据Prime Market Terminal的数据，货币市场表明，交易员预计年底前将 宽松46.5个基点。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利表示，在明确提高关税如何影响价格稳定之前，利率应保持不 变。这一系列因素相互交织，共同影响着当前复杂多变的金融市场格局。 在技术分析领域，周二金价走势出现关键变化，于跌破短期上升趋势线后呈现出进一步回调态势。当 前，金价正处于对4小时图200周期均线所在3295美元一线的测试阶段。值得注意的是，一旦该均线被有 效跌破，且形成具有确认意义的收盘状态，那么短期内的下行趋势或 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] Core Viewpoints - In the short term, China's exports are supported by re - exports and the easing of Sino - US tariffs, but investment data in April weakened, especially in the real estate sector, and consumption was slightly pressured. Attention should be paid to the possibility of further fiscal expansion. The RMB is expected to be more stable in the future [2] - The long - term US Treasury yield continues to rise due to rating downgrades and fiscal expansion expectations, and potential liquidity risks should be noted. The market is focusing on the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction on Wednesday [3] - For commodities, attention should be paid to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up, and stagflation allocation in the long term. Be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments on industrial products, and the price of agricultural products is more likely to rise due to tariffs. The medium - term supply of energy is considered to be relatively loose [4] Content Summary by Directory Market Analysis - China's April economic data was mixed. Exports slightly exceeded expectations, investment weakened, fiscal revenue and expenditure increased, and consumption was under pressure. The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations on May 23. The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks made substantial progress, and the RMB is expected to be more stable. Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating [2] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, and the US debt expectation continued to rise. The Fed may adjust the interest - rate setting framework, and the first interest - rate cut this year is expected to be postponed to September. There are uncertainties in US - EU trade negotiations, and Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs [3] Commodity Market - For industrial products such as black and non - ferrous metals, be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments. Agricultural product prices are more likely to rise due to tariffs. The IEA lowered the oil demand forecast, and OPEC + plans to increase production. The EU plans to ban imports of Russian gas, and there is an opportunity to go long on gold on dips [4] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification; gold is recommended for long - position allocation on dips [5] To - do News - Rating agencies maintained or upgraded Hong Kong's credit rating. The US may lower tariffs on some countries, and the trade agreement with India is close to completion. Japan is taking measures to deal with US tariffs, and may adjust the bond issuance plan. The market is waiting for the Japanese 40 - year Treasury auction, and OPEC + advanced the meeting date [7] Macroeconomic Data Charts - There are charts related to the Citi Economic Surprise Index, 30 - city commodity housing transaction area, steel consumption, Sino - US Treasury yield spreads, US dollar exchange rates, and the interest - rate corridor [8]

Economic Overview - The probability of a "soft landing" for the US economy has increased as trade tensions show signs of easing, leading to a decrease in recession risks [2] - The US GDP growth is expected to rebound in Q2 due to a decline in imports, with a strong labor market potentially delaying the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [2][3] - The Markit manufacturing and services PMIs for May indicate expansion, with manufacturing PMI at 52.3, the highest since February, and new orders growing at the fastest pace in over a year [2][3] Labor Market Insights - In April, non-farm employment increased by 177,000, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% [4] - The labor market exhibits structural contradictions, characterized by "strong data, weak structure," which may influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [5] Federal Reserve Policy Adjustments - The Federal Reserve is adjusting its monetary policy framework to address significant changes in inflation and interest rate outlooks since the pandemic [6] - The focus of monetary policy will shift from assessing "deviations" from full employment to evaluating "shortages" in the labor market [6][7] - The Fed may consider exiting the flexible average inflation targeting framework due to its limitations in the current economic environment [7][8] Market Reactions and Asset Performance - Recent downgrades of the US credit rating and threats of increased tariffs have led to heightened market volatility, impacting the dollar and boosting gold prices [9][10] - The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds has risen above 5%, reflecting concerns over the sustainability of US debt amid rising interest expenses [10][11] - The relationship between gold prices and US fiscal deficits suggests that ongoing fiscal expansion could enhance gold's investment appeal in the long term [11]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that credit rating agencies S&P and Moody's have maintained stable ratings for Hong Kong, indicating resilience amid global economic uncertainties [1] - S&P has reaffirmed Hong Kong's credit rating at "AA+" with a stable outlook, while Moody's has maintained an "Aa3" rating and upgraded its outlook from negative to stable [1] - The Hong Kong government expresses confidence in leveraging its institutional advantages under "One Country, Two Systems" to enhance its status as an international financial, shipping, and trade center, while promoting the development of an international innovation and technology hub [1]

据央广网报道，最新官方储备资产情况。数据显示，4月末，我国外汇储备规模为3.28万亿元，连续第三个月增长；4月末，黄金储备规模为7377万盎司，连 续六个月增长。根据国家外汇局的统计数据，截至2025年4月末，我国外汇储备规模为32817亿美元，较3月末上升410亿美元，升幅为1.27%。外汇局指出， 2025年4月，受主要经济体宏观政策、经济增长预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌，全球金融资产价格涨跌互现。 特朗普（资料图） 美元（资料图） 自从2019年被日本超越之后，近年来中国在逐步减持美债，整体趋势非常明显，不过，这一次是自2023年2月以来最大规模的单月长期美债抛售，这已经不 是简单的投资行为。事实上，其原因也不难理解，总结起来就是四个字——风险规避。国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从Aaa下调至Aa1，这是继标 普2011年、惠誉2023年之后，第三家主要评级机构对美国信用评级的调整。 中国由美国第二大债主变为第三大债主，英国变为第二大债主。3月正值本轮美债市场动荡前夕。美国财政部2025年3月国际资本流动报告（TIC）显示，日 本3月增持49亿美元美国国债，持仓规模为11308亿美元，依然是美国第一 ...

2025年5月美元汇率大幅下跌，主要原因可归结为以下六个方面： 1. 财政赤字与信用风险加剧 美国国会通过的新减税法案预计未来十年新增数万亿美元财政赤字，叠加穆迪等评级机构调降美国主权 及银行信用评级，市场对美债可持续性担忧加剧。这一背景下，美国国债拍卖遇冷，5月22日20年期国 债拍卖需求疲软，长期收益率大幅飙升，反映投资者要求更高风险溢价，直接拖累美元指数跌破99关 口。 2. 关税政策冲击全球信心 特朗普公开施压美联储大幅降息，甚至威胁解雇主席鲍威尔，引发市场对货币发行政治化的担忧。这种 干预动摇了美元信用基础，部分投资者认为美联储可能丧失抑制通胀的能力，加剧美元抛售潮。同期美 债收益率曲线陡峭化，10年期国债收益率突破4.5%，显示市场对长期通胀预期升温。 4. 全球去美元化进程加速 中国、俄罗斯等国家推动本币结算和黄金储备多元化，叠加美国滥用金融制裁导致美元资产信任度下 降。IMF数据显示人民币购买力平价被显著低估（3.55元/1美元），促使国际资本重新配置资产。5月美 元指数较年初累计下跌11.1%，创2005年以来最差开局。 5. 美元套利逻辑逆转 日本央行加息至0.25%并缩减超长期国债购买， ...