【市场分析：美元中期承压，人民币汇率波动区间有望企稳】近期美元指数震荡回落，主因是美国财政 与信用风险重新定价。穆迪下调美国主权评级，三大评级机构对美债评级均低于 3A，加上国会推进大 规模减税与扩张性财政法案，联邦债务预期抬升，引发"卖美国"交易升温。30 年期美债收益率突破 5.1%，短端利率平稳，市场对长期财政可持续性担忧升温，衍生品市场看空情绪创历史新高。 4 月银 行结售汇逆差小幅扩大，企业结汇与售汇规模增长，外汇交易活跃度上升。4 月货物贸易顺差收窄，跨 境资金净流入649 亿美元，出口有韧性但面临不确定性。资本项方面，证券投资项下涉外收付款波动， 人民币债券托管量回升，外资配置意愿改善。4 月社零和工业增加值同比增长，5 月 LPR 下调释放托底 信号，人民币得到阶段性支撑。 从基本面看，5 月美国 PMI 初值高于预期，穆迪下调评级削弱美元信 心，中国跨境资金净流入，货物贸易顺差稳固。美债收益率因财政风险上行，中国 LPR 下调压低短端 利率，短期内美中利差有走阔趋势。美方关税政策反复，评级下调叠加政策不确定，美元承压凸显人民 币相对稳定性。 欧元方面，欧盟发展预期乏力，美关税政策增强欧元资产 ...

Group 1 - Recent significant pullback in credit risk assets such as long-term US and Japanese government bonds, leading to a rise in decentralized safe-haven asset gold [1][2] - Moody's downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, exacerbating the situation for dollar assets and contributing to a surge in gold prices, which exceeded $3300 per ounce by May 21 [1][5] - The US dollar index fell below 100, reaching 99.6, highlighting the challenges faced by fiat currencies in the current economic climate [1][2] Group 2 - Concerns over the sustainability of US and Japanese debt have led to persistently high yields on government bonds, with US 20-year and 30-year bond yields surpassing 5% as of May 21 [2][3] - Japan's long-term bond yields have also risen significantly, with 20-year, 30-year, and 40-year yields increasing by 39.7 basis points, 72 basis points, and 101.2 basis points respectively since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" [2][3] Group 3 - The recent downturn in US and Japanese bond markets is linked to weak auction results, with Japan's 20-year bond auction yielding the worst results since 2012, and the US 20-year bond auction also showing weak demand [4] - Strong demand for gold is evident, with global physical gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $11 billion in April, driven largely by significant inflows from Asia [4][5] Group 4 - Following Moody's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating, there has been a notable increase in gold holdings, with COMEX gold inventory rising by 30,648.47 troy ounces and SPDR gold ETF holdings increasing by 36,869.5 troy ounces [5] - China's gold imports reached a new high of 127.5 metric tons in April, reflecting a 73% month-on-month increase, driven by both central bank purchases and increased retail demand [5]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury's recent auction of $16 billion in 20-year bonds faced weak demand, leading to a rise in 30-year Treasury yields to an 18-month high, hovering above 5% [1] - RSM's chief economist Joseph Brusuelas noted a shift in investor perception regarding the safe-haven value of long-term U.S. Treasuries, driven by increasing risks related to government spending, taxation, trade, inflation, and growth [1] - Moody's downgrade of the U.S. credit rating has raised concerns, with projections indicating that U.S. debt could reach 134% of GDP by 2035, highlighting the unsustainable nature of the current deficit levels compared to other developed nations [1] Group 2 - The Responsible Federal Budget Committee estimates that the recent tax cut plan could increase the deficit by $3.1 trillion over the next decade, equivalent to 10% of this year's GDP [2] - Analysts have expressed concerns about the implications of high deficits during a period of low unemployment, likening current borrowing levels to wartime financing [2] - There are warnings that unless the stock market experiences another significant downturn, the administration may not reconsider its tax cut strategy, potentially leading to a severe sell-off in long-term bonds that could impact risk assets [2]

由于美国政府债务风险持续上升，穆迪评级公司（Moody's Ratings）于上周五宣布，将美国的主权信用 评级从最高等级Aaa下调至Aa1，并将评级展望从"负面"调整为"稳定"。值得注意的是，此前惠誉评级 （Fitch Ratings）已于2023年，标普全球评级（S&P Global Ratings）早在2011年便已将美国评级下调至 非最高等级。至此，美国已全面失去了全球三大评级机构的最高评级。 穆迪为何下调美国评级？ 穆迪指出，美国历届政府和国会未能就遏制巨额财政赤字达成有效共识。目前正在讨论的财政方案，也未 显示出在未来数年内能实质性削减强制性支出和赤字的可能性。穆迪预计，未来十年，美国赤字将持续扩 大，主要原因在于福利支出上升，而政府收入增长趋于平缓。 报告还指出，若税收和支出结构未作出调整，美国政府的财政灵活性将进一步受限。穆迪预测，到2035 年，包括利息支出在内的强制性支出将占联邦政府总支出的78%，高于2024年的73%。若2017年《减税 与就业法案》全面延续，未来十年将额外增加约4万亿美元的结构性赤字（不含利息），这是穆迪的基准 情境预期。 据其模型估算，美国联邦财政赤字预计将从202 ...

Group 1 - Global uncertainty has risen since May 16, leading to increased risk aversion and a rebound in gold prices due to concerns over tariffs, U.S. credit rating downgrades, and geopolitical tensions [1] - On May 16, President Trump indicated potential unilateral tariff increases on trade partners, raising market concerns about trade uncertainties [1] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 on May 16, citing large fiscal deficits and increasing government debt burdens, which contributed to a decline in the U.S. dollar index [1] - Reports of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities have heightened geopolitical tensions, causing gold prices to surge past $3,300 per ounce and oil prices to rise by 3.5% [1] Group 2 - The trend of "de-dollarization" globally suggests that gold may become a new pricing anchor, as the dollar's credit system faces challenges from currency overproduction and fiscal deficits [2] - The demand for gold as a safe asset is increasing due to frequent global geopolitical turmoil, prompting diversification of asset reserves [2] - The gold ETF (code: 518800) tracks the spot price of high-purity gold (99.99%) and is suitable for investors seeking asset preservation and inflation hedging [2]

Geopolitical Tensions - The geopolitical situation is tense in multiple regions, particularly in the Middle East where negotiations between Israel and Hamas have stalled, and there are reports of Israel potentially preparing to attack Iranian nuclear facilities [2] - In Europe, the EU has approved the 17th round of sanctions against Russia, and the UK has introduced over 100 new sanctions, including the suspension of free trade agreement negotiations with Israel [2] - The complex geopolitical landscape has significantly increased market uncertainty, providing strong support for gold prices [2] Economic Outlook - High uncertainty is causing households and businesses to pause spending and investment, which may lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth [2] - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with expectations of at least two rate cuts by the end of 2025, each by 25 basis points [2] Credit Rating Impact - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has led to a significant drop in U.S. stock markets, with the 10-year Treasury yield surpassing 4.5% and the 30-year yield exceeding 5% [3] - These economic instabilities are prompting investors to seek channels for asset preservation and appreciation, highlighting the safe-haven function of gold [3] Trading Strategies - For spot gold, a buy position is recommended if it stabilizes at 3245.00, with a target of 3275.00 [4] - For spot silver, a sell position is suggested if it stabilizes at 32.700, with a target of 32.900 [6]

Group 1 - The USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen below the psychological level of 144.00, reaching a two-week low, driven by expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's monetary policy despite weak trade data [1][3] - Japan's core CPI has risen for 27 consecutive months, with service price increases at their highest since 1993, raising concerns about persistent inflation and prompting speculation about a potential interest rate hike in 2025 [3] - The USD is under pressure due to two main factors: the market fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and Fitch's downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating to AA+, leading to a reassessment of the attractiveness of USD assets [3] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that the USD/JPY has broken key support levels, with the next target being the 143.65-143.60 area, which is a significant Fibonacci retracement level [3] - Short-term resistance levels are identified at 144.55 and 145.00, with any technical rebounds likely viewed as short-selling opportunities unless the price can reclaim 145.40 [4] - The market sentiment has shifted from merely trading interest rate differentials to speculating on policy expectation differences, indicating potential volatility due to discrepancies between actual policy adjustments by the Bank of Japan and market expectations [5]

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts has become more conservative, reflecting concerns about the U.S. economy showing signs of recession without timely rate cuts, indicating a bear market [2][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. sovereign rating was downgraded by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, with a negative outlook due to high interest costs and unsustainable debt growth [2][25]. - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, purchased $319 million worth of gold mining ETFs in the first quarter, with the GDX ETF returning 31.1%, outperforming the gold ETF's 19.9% [2][25]. - As of May 13, 2023, net long positions in COMEX gold decreased to 345 tons, the lowest level in 63 weeks, while net long positions in silver fell to 4,426 tons [6][2]. Group 2: Fund Positioning in Precious Metals - The net long position in gold funds decreased by 39% year-to-date, while silver funds increased by 69% [8][9]. - Platinum funds saw a net long position increase of 58% year-to-date, while copper transitioned from negative to positive [11][13]. - The gold/silver ratio was reported at 99.265, indicating a high level of market fear, with a year-to-date increase of 11.9% [21][23]. Group 3: Future Projections and Strategies - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in June, with a probability of 91.4% for no change [24][25]. - There is a potential for significant volatility in the dollar and gold prices due to political dynamics, particularly with the upcoming 2025 elections [27][28]. - Strategies suggested include shorting base metals, shorting U.S. stocks, holding gold, and maintaining cash positions as a defensive measure [28][29].

Group 1 - JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warned that despite last month's tariff turmoil causing market fluctuations, the rapid and significant market rebound indicates that investors have fallen into a state of "extreme complacency" [1] - Dimon noted that the market initially dropped by 10% and then rebounded by 10%, which he believes reflects an unusual sense of complacency among investors [1] - Technical analyst Jonathan Krinsky from BTIG highlighted that the five-day moving average of the put/call ratio in the options market is nearing a five-year low, suggesting that investors are increasingly favoring call options, anticipating a continued market rise [1][3] Group 2 - Krinsky expressed concerns that while the current market uptrend is strong, the narrow trading range and extreme put/call ratio indicate excessive optimism, and a market correction may be imminent [3] - Following President Trump's announcement of large-scale "reciprocal" tariffs on multiple trading partners on April 2, the stock market quickly fell, with the S&P 500 index nearing bear market territory [3] - Despite the concerns raised by Moody's downgrade of the last AAA sovereign credit rating for the U.S., which led to increased worries about the U.S. fiscal situation and a brief market sell-off, the S&P 500 rebounded again, achieving its sixth consecutive day of gains [3] Group 3 - Nigel Green, CEO of deVere Group, pointed out that investors are "willfully ignoring" the unsettling signals from the bond market, suggesting that the rapid rebound in 2023 and early 2024 has led many to view downside risks as short-term noise [4] - Green emphasized that the current macro conditions have fundamentally changed, with ongoing supply chain disruptions, volatile energy markets, and shrinking real wages in many developing countries [4] Group 4 - Despite attempts to maintain an upward trend, the S&P 500 experienced a decline of 0.8% late Tuesday, ultimately closing down by 0.39%, ending its six-day winning streak [5]

美国，再一次"被降级"。 近日，国际评级机构穆迪将美国主权信用评级从AAA下调至AA1，终结了其自1917年以来对美国维持 的最高评级。至此，美国在三大评级机构中的最高信用评级已悉数失守。 穆迪给出的降级理由并不陌生——财政赤字持续扩大、债务利息攀升、预算灵活性有限，这与此前标普 和惠誉的判断如出一辙。 "这进一步证明美国债务过高。国会必须自律，要么增加收入，要么减少支出。"斯坦福大学金融学教 授、前穆迪董事会成员达雷尔·达菲说。 目前，美国联邦政府债务总额突破36万亿美元，其中约四分之一将在2025年陆续到期。为了"借新还 旧"，美国政府将不得不发行更多国债，伴随美债收益率上行，这一模式正变得更加昂贵和脆弱。 穆迪在报告中警告，美国持续的大规模财政赤字将进一步推高政府债务和利息支出负担，财政状况很可 能会恶化。 2024年，美国联邦财政赤字占GDP比例为6.4%。穆迪预测，这一比例将在2035年升至9%，与美国财长 贝森特所期望的"赤字占比降至3%"目标背道而驰。 美国的"财政掣肘"并非虚言。 更棘手的是，美国国内政治极化日益加剧，导致财政改革难以推进。 2023年惠誉下调美国信用评级时，多名民主党政府官员 ...