2025 年 8 月 31 日 公司研究 Q2 经营承压，盈利能力下滑 ——千禾味业（603027.SH）2025 年中报点评 增持（维持） 当前价：12.33 元 作者 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523877 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 10.25 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 126.44 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 9.46/14.79 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 75.94% | 股价相对走势 -26% -11% 4% 20% 35% 08/24 12/24 03/25 06/25 千禾味业 沪深300 | 收益表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | % | 1M | 3M | 1Y | | 相对 | -6.25 | -8.89 | -40.03 | | 绝对 | 2 ...

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 1.38 billion and a net profit of 117 million for the first half of 2025, reflecting year-on-year growth of 8.39% and 7.53% respectively [1] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue and net profit of 711 million and 58 million, with year-on-year increases of 9.54% and 22.45% respectively, indicating a sequential acceleration in performance [1] - Growth was driven by the C-end market, particularly in the air-dried products segment, while the B-end business showed steady development [1] Revenue Breakdown - For the first half of 2025, revenue from compound seasonings, light cooking solutions, and beverage dessert ingredients was 630 million, 636 million, and 80 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.06%, 13.94%, and 6.92% [1] - In Q2 2025, the revenue growth rates for these segments were 9.22%, 14.98%, and -16.83% respectively, with the compound seasonings segment benefiting from enhanced service capabilities and new customer acquisition [1] Regional Performance - In the first half of 2025, revenue growth rates by region were as follows: East China +6.46%, South China +58.63%, North China -7.60%, Central China +0.16%, Northeast +15.83%, Southwest +22.47%, Northwest +72.00%, and overseas +57.66% [2] - In Q2 2025, the growth rates were: East China +8.72%, South China +47.38%, North China -8.43%, Central China -5.20%, Northeast +20.94%, Southwest +5.60%, Northwest +1.76%, and overseas +164.94% [2] Sales Model - In the first half of 2025, direct sales and non-direct sales generated revenues of 1.131 billion and 210 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 9.95% and 2.49% [2] - In Q2 2025, direct sales and non-direct sales saw year-on-year growth of 11.89% and 2.29% respectively, as the company actively expanded into new sales channels [2] Profitability - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 33.68%, an increase of 1.61 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a higher proportion of revenue from the C-end air-dried business and the launch of high-margin new products in the B-end [3] - The net profit margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.45%, remaining stable year-on-year, while the adjusted net profit margin was 8.06%, reflecting a 0.27 percentage point increase [3] Product Innovation and Channel Expansion - The company is focusing on product innovation and channel expansion, with new product launches in the C-end market and a robust B-end product solution offering [4] - The company is also expanding into new retail channels, including O2O and membership-based stores, while enhancing production capacity through new facilities [4] Earnings Forecast - The company has slightly adjusted its net profit forecast for 2025 to 264 million, 308 million, and 339 million, reflecting a reduction of 4.1%, 1.3%, and 0.9% respectively [5] - The projected EPS for 2025-2027 is 0.66, 0.77, and 0.85, with corresponding PE ratios of 22x, 19x, and 17x [5]

2025 年 8 月 31 日 公司研究 增持（维持） 当前价：14.59 元 作者 分析师：陈彦彤 执业证书编号：S0930518070002 021-52523689 25H1 复调表现稳健，空刻营收增速较快 ——宝立食品（603170.SH）2025 年中报点评 | 市场数据 | | | --- | --- | | 总股本(亿股) | 4.00 | | 总市值(亿元)： | 58.36 | | 一年最低/最高(元)： | 10.12/17.13 | | 近 3 月换手率： | 51.33% | 股价相对走势 chenyt@ebscn.com 分析师：汪航宇 执业证书编号：S0930523070002 021-52523174 wanghangyu@ebscn.com 分析师：聂博雅 执业证书编号：S0930522030003 021-52523808 nieboya@ebscn.com C 端空刻放量驱动增长，B 端业务稳健发展。分产品，25H1 复合调味料/轻烹解决 方案/饮品甜点配料营收分别为 6.30/6.36/0.80 亿元，分别同比+4.06%/+13.94%/ +6.92% ； 25Q2 复 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a solid performance in H1 2025, with revenue and net profit showing year-on-year growth, although Q2 faced challenges due to weak consumer demand. The company remains committed to strengthening its core business and improving profitability through ongoing reforms [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.13 billion, net profit of 110 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 100 million, representing year-on-year increases of 12.0%, 18.1%, and 22.8% respectively [1]. - Q2 2025 saw revenue of 500 million, net profit of 50 million, and net profit excluding non-recurring items of 50 million, with year-on-year changes of -8.2%, +40.6%, and +43.9% respectively [1]. - The revenue performance in Q2 was primarily affected by subdued consumer demand, while new product categories like复调 outperformed traditional categories [1][2]. Product and Channel Analysis - In H1 2025, revenue from various product categories was as follows: vinegar 740 million, liquor 150 million, sauce 80 million, and other products 150 million, with year-on-year changes of +8.0%, -5.4%, -3.5%, and +176.6% respectively [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue from vinegar, liquor, and sauce was 370 million, 60 million, and 40 million, showing year-on-year declines of -1.0%, -18.9%, and -29.0% respectively [2]. - Online and offline channel revenues in H1 2025 were 80 million and 420 million, with year-on-year changes of +18.7% and -12.1% [2]. Profitability and Cost Structure - The company's gross margin in H1 2025 was 38.4%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 gross margin reaching 42.1%, up 9.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In H1 2025, the sales and management expense ratios were 18.1% and 4.2%, reflecting year-on-year changes of +1.5 and -1.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The net profit margin for H1 2025 was 9.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, while Q2 net profit margin was 10.8%, up 3.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook and Valuation - The company is optimistic about the long-term impact of management reforms and maintains its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, projecting EPS of 0.18, 0.20, and 0.21 respectively [4]. - The target price for 2025 is set at 10.44, based on a PE ratio of 58x, reflecting an increase from the previous target of 9.36 [4].

事件：莲花控股发布25 年半年报，25H1 公司实现收入16.21 亿元，同比增长32.68%；实现归母净利润 1.61 亿元，同比增长60.01%；扣非归母净利润1.61 亿元，同比增长58.54%。其中25Q2 实现收入8.27 亿 元，同比增长28.13%，归母净利润0.60 亿元，同比增长16.92%，扣非归母净利润0.61 亿元，同比增长 15.18%。 分拆收入：（1）分产品，25Q2 味精等氨基酸调味品/鸡精等复合调味品/算力服务/面粉和面制品/有机 肥和水溶肥/水业公司产品/酱油等液态调味品/其他分别实现收入5.34/1.10/0.26/0.25/0.11/0.14/0.44/0.58 亿 元，同比分别+9.81%/+46.54%/+88.30%/-14.08%/+9.96%/+8.77%/+2269.90%/+269.58%。（2）分渠道， 25Q2 线上/线下渠道分别实现收入1.09/7.12 亿元，同比分别+204.03%/+16.99%。（3）分市场，25Q2 华 北区域/华东区域/ 华南区域/ 华西区域/ 华中区域/ 国外区域分别实现收入0.84/1.08/0.98/0.99/2.8 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is experiencing a shift from traditional industries like Moutai and Gree to emerging sectors such as Cambricon and Ningde, indicating a transformation in profit generation and investment focus [1] - The past 30 years have seen significant GDP growth in both the US and China, with China’s GDP increasing 33 times, suggesting that understanding economic cycles is crucial for investment strategies [2] - The manufacturing sector faces challenges due to overcapacity and deflation, leading to a need for differentiation and value addition to survive [5] Group 2 - Major infrastructure projects in China, such as the Three Gorges Project and the high-speed rail network, have historically driven economic growth and job creation, with the next major project being the Yarlung Tsangpo River project [4][5] - The cyclical nature of industries, such as the pork industry, indicates that financing peaks and troughs are closely tied to market conditions, with the current environment suggesting a contraction phase [10] - The banking sector's performance is influenced by economic growth rates and interest rate changes, with a focus on risk management becoming increasingly important [11][12] Group 3 - The current economic environment in China shows a GDP growth rate of 5.3%, while industrial profits are declining, highlighting issues of overcapacity and intense competition [13] - Long-term investment strategies should focus on companies with strong competitive advantages and the ability to generate profits even in downturns, while short-term trading may be more suitable in the current market [14][15]

从经营数据看，千禾味业持续了2024年的下滑趋势，2025年上半年，公司酱油产品实现收入8.39亿元， 同比下降16.09%；食醋产品收入1.59亿元，同比下降21.51%。 图片来 源：智通财经沈溦摄 智通财经记者 ｜沈溦 上半年饱受舆论风波影响的千禾味业（603027.SH）不出意外地交出一份不太客观的半年报。 千禾味业上半年实现营业收入13.18亿元，同比下降17.07%；实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润1.73亿 元，同比下降30.81%。 公司一季度实现营收8.31亿元，净利润1.61亿元，第二季度营收仅为4.87亿元，净利润跌至1275万元。 以此计算单季度营收同比下滑近30%，净利润则同比下滑超过86%。 而存量市场的竞争，导致了不可能避免的价格战，智通财经查询相关购物网站发现，各品牌500ml装零 添加酱油价格基本都在12-18元区间浮动，同品类价格竞争明显。 线上线下同步走低，其中线上模式收入1.98亿元，同比下降29.2%；线下模式收入10.99亿元，同比下降 14.06%。 此外，公司存货增长4.75%达到9.34亿元，上半年存货周转天数141天，相比一季度157天有所好转，但 依然远高于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Fuling Pickle's recent semi-annual report indicates a trend of "slight revenue increase, slight profit decline," reflecting ongoing challenges in growth and market competition [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved approximately 1.313 billion yuan in revenue for the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 0.51%, while net profit was about 441 million yuan, down 1.66% year-on-year [2][4]. - Sales expenses increased by 22.94% due to new product launches and marketing activities aimed at enhancing competitiveness in the market [2][3]. - Accounts receivable surged to 1.246 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 1421.45%, attributed to providing credit to customers to support sales [2]. Market Dynamics - The number of distributors decreased from 2,632 at the end of the previous year to 2,446 by mid-year, as the company optimized its distribution channels [3][6]. - The core business of pickles has seen revenue decline from 2.175 billion yuan in 2022 to 2.044 billion yuan in 2024, with a slight increase of 0.45% in the first half of 2025 [5][6]. Industry Challenges - The pickle market is experiencing stagnation, with a compound annual growth rate of only 1.25% from 2007 to 2021, as consumer preferences shift towards diverse options [8][9]. - The company has faced increased competition from emerging brands and changing consumer habits, particularly among younger demographics [8][10]. Strategic Initiatives - Fuling Pickle has adopted a "dual-driven" strategy of "internal growth + external expansion," planning to acquire Weizimei to enter the compound seasoning market [1][11]. - The acquisition of Weizimei, which specializes in Sichuan-style compound seasonings, is seen as a critical step to overcome growth bottlenecks [12][13]. - The company aims to leverage its existing distribution channels to enhance Weizimei's market presence post-acquisition [13]. Integration Challenges - The integration of the acquired business poses challenges due to differences in operational models, user demographics, and resource allocation [14].

Core Insights - The condiment industry is experiencing a significant divergence in performance, with some companies thriving while others struggle to survive [1] Revenue Performance - In the first half of 2025, 22 listed condiment companies reported a total revenue of 704.94 billion yuan, a slight increase of 0.46% year-on-year [5] - 12 companies achieved revenue growth, while 10 experienced declines [3] - Leading companies include: - Haitian Flavor Industry: 15.23 billion yuan, up 7.59% [2] - Fufeng Group: 13.96 billion yuan, up 4.40% [2] - Meihua Biological: 12.28 billion yuan, down 2.87% [2] - Lianhua Holdings led in revenue growth rate at 32.68%, followed by Hengshun Vinegar (12.03%) and Angel Yeast (10.10%) [3] Profit Performance - The total net profit for the 22 companies reached 10.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.43% [5] - 13 companies reported profit growth, while 9 saw declines [5] - Top performers in net profit include: - Haitian Flavor Industry: 3.91 billion yuan, up 13.35% [4] - Fufeng Group: 1.79 billion yuan, up 72.10% [4] - Meihua Biological: 1.77 billion yuan, up 19.96% [4] - Fufeng Group had the highest net profit growth rate at 72.1%, followed by Lianhua Holdings (60.01%) and Anji Food (58.61%) [5] Industry Trends - The industry is witnessing a shift towards health-oriented products, with companies focusing on "reduced salt" and organic offerings [7] - Companies like Hengshun Vinegar and Jiajia Foods are successfully implementing health strategies to improve performance [9] Channel Transformation - The industry is undergoing a channel transformation, with a focus on optimizing distribution strategies [10] - Online channels are growing rapidly, with Haitian Flavor Industry reporting online revenue of 842 million yuan, up 38.97% [12] - Customization for the restaurant sector is emerging as a new growth area, with companies like Rich Chen achieving revenue growth through tailored solutions [12] Cost Management - Fluctuations in raw material costs are challenging companies, but some are managing to reduce costs effectively [13] - Companies like Meihua Biological have benefited from lower raw material prices, leading to profit growth [15] Global Expansion - Internationalization is becoming essential for condiment companies, with many accelerating their global strategies [16] - Haitian Flavor Industry has made significant strides in international markets, including a successful listing in Hong Kong [16] - Companies like Meihua Biological and Jiangyan Group are also expanding their global footprint through acquisitions and exports [18]

风险提示：行业竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨，需求恢复不及预期等。 25Q2 成本红利下，毛利率延续改善趋势，销售费用率有所提升，利润率略承压。25Q2 公司实现毛利率 39.4%，同比+3.2pcts。费用端看，25Q2 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别同比 +4.0/+0.4/+0.0/-0.2pcts。销售费用率提升幅度较大，主要系：收入下滑，规模效应下降，叠加薪酬、广 告宣传费、股权激励费用增加导致销售费用绝对数值增加。利润率方面，25Q2 公司实现归母净利率/扣 非归母净利率7.4%/8.0%，分别同比-2.4pcts/-1.0pcts。 盈利预测：我们预计公司25-27 年实现收入52.0/55.3/60.5 亿元，分别同比-5.7%/+6.3%/+9.3%，实现归母 净利润8.4/9.6/10.7 亿元，分别同比-6.5%/+15.5%/+11.2%，对应EPS 分别为1.07/1.24/1.38 元/股，维 持"推荐"评级。 事件：公司发布2025 年中报，25H1 实现收入21.3 亿元，同比-18.6%，实现归母净利润2.6 亿元，同 比-26.6%，实现扣非归母净利润2.6 亿元，同比-2 ...