1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - In February, overseas iron ore shipments are in the seasonal off - season, with expected slight decline in shipment volume but relatively high absolute volume. Attention should be paid to the possible impact of weather on the shipping end due to frequent hurricanes in Australia in the first quarter. The arrival volume is expected to decline accordingly. - In January, the annual planned maintenance of steel mills' blast furnaces was gradually completed, with more blast furnaces resuming production and a slight increase in molten iron. In February, the molten iron output is expected to continue to increase slowly, with the daily average molten iron output possibly rising above 2.3 million tons. - Port inventories continue to accumulate, reaching a high level in the same period of history, and there are also structural contradictions. The total inventory puts pressure on the absolute price level. - Overall, the upward space of iron ore prices is restricted by high inventory and the expectation of loose supply. At the same time, the marginal pressure of supply and demand is relatively controllable. It is expected to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the start - up of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: In January, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments was 30.7948 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.462 million tons. The weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. - **Demand**: In January, the estimated domestic daily average molten iron output was 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. - **Inventory**: At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Difference**: At the end of January, the price difference between PB - Super Special Powder was 114 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of -3 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - PB Powder was 90 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +8 yuan/ton. The price difference between Carajás Fines - Jinbuba Powder was 149 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +12 yuan/ton. The price difference between (Carajás Fines + Super Special Powder)/2 - PB Powder was -12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month change of +5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feed Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of January, the pellet feed ratio was 14.72%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feed ratio was 12.45%, an increase of 0.47 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The sinter feed ratio was 72.83%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The price of Tangshan scrap steel was 2,165 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month. The price of Zhangjiagang scrap steel was 2,130 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of January, the profitability rate of steel mills was 39.39%, an increase of 2.16 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3.3 Inventory - At the end of January, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports nationwide was 170.2226 million tons, an increase of 10.932 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 4.0931 million tons, an increase of 0.5775 million tons from the end of the previous month. The iron concentrate powder inventory at ports was 15.5916 million tons, an increase of 2.0312 million tons from the end of the previous month. The lump ore inventory at ports was 21.6211 million tons, an increase of 0.1745 million tons from the end of the previous month. - The inventory of Australian ore at ports was 77.9919 million tons, an increase of 8.5793 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of Brazilian ore at ports was 55.8397 million tons, a decrease of 0.8559 million tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 99.6859 million tons, an increase of 11.084 million tons from the end of the previous month [35][38][41][44]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Australian shipments to China via 19 ports was 14.9714 million tons, a decrease of 1.4831 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazilian shipments was 6.495 million tons, a decrease of 1.9485 million tons from the previous month. - **Major Miners' Shipments**: In January, the weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.9336 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5347 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.5568 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1962 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 4.8542 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1711 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.8766 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0469 million tons. - **Arrival and Non - Mainstream Imports**: In January, the weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 26.7024 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5724 million tons. In December, China's non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore imports were 21.9278 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9236 million tons. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of January, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 59.98%, an increase of 4.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate powder from domestic mines was 468,700 tons, an increase of 34,800 tons from the end of the previous month [50][53][56][59][62]. 3.5 Demand Side - In January, the estimated domestic molten iron output was 70.7857 million tons, with a daily average of 2.2834 million tons, an increase of 0.0044 million tons from the previous month. At the end of January, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.47%, an increase of 0.53 percentage points from the end of the previous month. - In January, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.2228 million tons, an increase of 0.0574 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore by 247 steel mills was 2.8173 million tons, a decrease of 0.0051 million tons from the previous month [67][70]. 3.6 Basis As of January 30, the estimated basis of the main contract of iron ore BRBF was 27.87 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 3.40% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall contradiction in the iron ore industry chain is not significant. There is pressure on iron ore supply, but the overall market risk appetite has weakened, liquidity is poor, and prices have declined. It is recommended to observe cautiously before the holiday [2][4] - Currently, the supply and demand of iron ore are both weak, showing obvious off - season characteristics. Although the steel mill's profit is acceptable, the demand for terminal steel products has entered the pre - holiday off - season [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - The steel fundamentals are acceptable with certain support, and the current steel mill profit is acceptable with some room for production increase [7] - The price forecast range for iron ore is 770 - 820, with a current at - the - money option IV of 21.09% and a historical volatility percentile of 11.3% [8] - For inventory management, if there is spot inventory and one is worried about future inventory price decline, strategies include directly shorting iron ore futures to lock in profits (I2603, short, 25%, entry range 830 - 840) and selling call options to collect premiums (I2603 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices). For procurement management, if one needs to purchase in the future and is worried about price increases, strategies include directly going long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (I2603, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and selling out - of - the - money put options (I2603 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [8] 3.2 Core Data - **Black Industry Chain Cost - Profit Table**: On February 6, 2026, the iron - making cost per ton was 2436.56 yuan, the blast - furnace hot - rolled coil profit per ton was - 1 yuan, the blast - furnace rebar profit per ton was 63 yuan, the Jiangsu electric - furnace flat - electricity rebar profit per ton was - 95 yuan, the steel mill profitability rate was 39.39%, and the iron - scrap price difference was - 100 yuan [9] - **Iron Ore Weekly Shipment Data**: On January 30, 2026, the global shipment volume was 3094.6 million tons, the Australia - Brazil shipment volume was 2466.5 million tons, etc. [9] - **Iron Ore Demand Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the daily average port clearance volume was 341.08 million tons, the daily average pig iron output was 228.58 million tons, etc. [10] - **Iron Ore Inventory Weekly Data**: On February 6, 2026, the 45 - port imported iron ore inventory was 17140.71 million tons, the 45 - port trade ore ratio was 66.06%, etc. [11] 3.3 Supply - **Global Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the global shipment volume of iron ore from multiple aspects such as seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value year - on - year, and comparison with historical data [13] - **Four Major Mines Shipment Analysis**: Studied the shipment volume of the four major iron ore mines from aspects like seasonality, year - to - date cumulative shipment volume difference, and over - seasonality [14][16] - **Non - mainstream Mines Shipment Analysis**: Analyzed the shipment volume of non - mainstream mines, including seasonality, year - to - date cumulative value difference, over - seasonality, and the relationship with the iron ore price index [18][20][24] - **Arrival and Port Congestion Analysis**: Analyzed the arrival volume of 47 ports, the number of ships at ports, port congestion days, and the actual arrival volume [26][28] - **Capsize Shipping Analysis**: Studied the freight price of capesize ships, the proportion of freight in iron ore cost, ship speed, and the global weekly floating inventory of iron ore [30][32] - **Domestic Ore Supply Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average output of iron concentrate powder from 186 mining enterprises and the monthly output from 433 mining enterprises [34] 3.4 Demand Analysis - **Pig Iron Analysis**: Analyzed the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises, including seasonality, the impact of blast - furnace maintenance on output, and the relationship between pig iron output over - seasonality and iron ore price [37] - **Steel Mill Profit Analysis**: Analyzed the production profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in blast furnaces, the profitability rate of steel enterprises, and the guiding relationship between profit and future steel production [39][40] - **Downstream Steel Analysis** - **Rebar**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, short - process production ratio, price - cost relationship, etc. of rebar [51][53][55] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and price difference of hot - rolled coils [60][62] - **Medium - thick Plate**: Analyzed the output, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - sales ratio of medium - thick plates [64][65] - **Off - balance - sheet Steel**: Estimated the off - balance - sheet output and analyzed the combined inventory of on - balance - sheet and off - balance - sheet crude steel, as well as the output, inventory, and apparent demand of H - shaped steel, angle steel, galvanized coils, etc. [67][68][70] - **Export Analysis**: Analyzed the monthly export volume of steel, the port departure volume, export orders, and the export profit of hot - rolled coils [91][93] 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **Port Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 45 ports, including the overall inventory, the inventory structure of different ore types, and the relationship between inventory and iron ore price [95][96] - **Other Inventory Analysis**: Analyzed the inventory of 247 steel enterprises, the combined inventory of steel mills' in - plant and floating in - transit iron ore, and the estimated inventory turnover days [112][113] 3.6 Valuation Analysis - **Basis and Term Structure**: Provided the iron ore warehouse receipt price table, including the cheapest spot price, converted futures price, basis of different contracts, and delivery profit of different positions. Also analyzed the seasonality of the basis of different contracts [115][116] - **Rebar - Iron Ore Ratio and Hot - rolled Coil - Iron Ore Ratio**: Analyzed the seasonality of the rebar - iron ore ratio and hot - rolled coil - iron ore ratio of different contracts [121][123] - **Coking Coal Ratio Analysis**: Analyzed the seasonality of the coking coal - iron ore price difference of different contracts and the relationship between coking coal and iron ore in terms of price [126][128] - **Scrap Steel Cost - effectiveness Analysis**: Analyzed the iron - scrap price difference, the relationship between scrap steel cost - effectiveness and iron - scrap price difference, and the scrap steel consumption ratio of pure blast - furnace enterprises [130]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This week, iron ore prices continued to decline from their highs, and as short - term market sentiment and capital disturbances came to an end, prices gradually returned to the fundamental logic. The supply side continued to contribute significant increments, the supply remained loose, and port inventories of imported iron ore continued to increase rapidly. The domestic terminal steel demand was unlikely to improve significantly. After the Spring Festival, the market trading logic would focus on the recovery of terminal steel demand in the first half of the year, which might fall short of expectations. The weakening of the domestic iron ore fundamentals was expected to continue, and the high valuation of iron ore was unlikely to be sustained. Overall, the current market was mainly dominated by macro and capital factors. This week, the macro sentiment cooled, the iron ore price valuation was moderately high, and the iron ore price was expected to be weak [4]. - The trading strategy suggested a weak - running trend for single - side trading and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options trading [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategy - The iron ore price was expected to run weakly. The single - side trading was expected to be weak, while arbitrage and options trading should adopt a wait - and - see approach [4]. Iron Core Logic Analysis - **Global Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of global iron ore shipments has been 30.79 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11% or 15 million tons. Among them, Australia's weekly shipments were 17.82 million tons, a 7.4% or 6.1 million - ton increase year - on - year, and Brazil's were 6.5 million tons, a 5.5% or 1.7 million - ton increase. The shipments of major overseas mines remained at a high level year - on - year. In 2025, 1.26 billion tons of iron ore were imported, a year - on - year increase of 24 million tons. Since the third quarter of last year, the year - on - year increase in domestic imported iron ore has continued to grow [7]. - **Non - mainstream Iron Ore Shipment**: Since 2026, the weekly average of non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore shipments has been 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29% or 7.3 million tons. The Simandou mining area is expected to contribute most of the increment in 2026, about 20 million tons for the whole year. It is expected to be in the production ramping - up stage in 2026 and enter the fast - lane of production release in 2027 [9]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: This week, the port inventory of imported iron ore continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory increased significantly, resulting in a 4 - million - ton increase in the total domestic imported iron ore inventory compared with the previous week. The current port inventory of imported iron ore is at the highest level in the past six years, and the domestic iron ore supply - demand pattern remains loose. Since January, the port inventory of imported iron ore has continued to increase significantly, with an inventory accumulation of about 15 million tons [11]. - **Domestic Terminal Steel Demand**: In December 2025, the year - on - year decline in real - estate new construction was 19%, and the sales area decreased by 17% year - on - year. Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment decreased by 11% year - on - year. The real - estate market improved marginally but remained at the bottom, while the growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing investment declined significantly. In the first half of 2026, the demand might fall short of expectations. Since the second half of 2025, domestic steel demand has been declining, and it is expected to continue to decline in the first half of 2026 on the high - base background of the first half of 2025. Overseas, in 2025, the consumption of iron ore decreased by 1% or 9 million tons year - on - year, but the consumption of iron elements increased by 3.5% or 37 million tons year - on - year. From the second quarter to the end of the year, overseas iron - element consumption was at a high level and continued to contribute increments. India's crude - steel output increased by 10% or 15.5 million tons year - on - year in 2025, and its demand remained at a relatively high level [13]. Iron Ore Fundamental Data Tracking - **Imported Iron Ore Port Price**: The report provides data on the Platts iron ore price index, the prices of PB powder and Carajás fines at Qingdao Port, and the spread between high, medium, and low - grade powder and the cash profit of steel mills [19]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Profit**: It presents the import profits of PB powder, Carajás fines, Super Special powder, Jinbuba, PB lump, and FMG [21]. - **Profit of Mainstream Steel Mills in East China**: It includes the cash profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China, the iron - making cost (excluding tax), the cash cost of hot - rolled coils, the cost of billets (excluding tax), and the cash cost of rebar [23]. - **Domestic - Overseas US Dollar Spread**: It shows the spreads between SGX and DCE contracts (converted to PB pricing), and the premium rate of Singapore iron ore to domestic iron ore [25]. - **Iron Ore Main Contract Basis and Inter - period Spread**: It provides data on the basis between the optimal delivery product and different contracts, and inter - period spreads such as 9/1, 1/5, and 5/9 spreads [27]. - **Global Four Major Mines' Shipments**: It shows the global shipment volumes of Rio Tinto, Vale, BHP, FMG, and CSN iron ore, as well as the arrival volume at 45 ports [29]. - **Imported Iron Ore Port Inventory**: It includes the inventory of powder, lump, pellet, non - trade, iron concentrate, and non - Australian and non - Brazilian iron ore at ports [31].

1. Report Information - Report Type: Black Metal Weekly [1] - Date: February 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Variety Research Team [4] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [4] 2. Investment Strategy Recommendations 2.1 Unilateral Strategies - RB2605: Price at 3077, expected to be volatile and weak. Influenced by factors such as a decline in the weekly output of five major steel products, significant increase in factory and social inventories, large drop in weekly demand, slow resumption of steel production, pressure on steel raw fuel prices, and a decline in steel costs [6]. - HC2605: Price at 3251, expected to be weak. The gap in imported ore arrivals may appear in the next few weeks, and the Indonesian coal export policy is affecting the market. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [6]. - J2605: Price at 1698.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's production quota reduction policy, the loss of coking enterprises has narrowed significantly, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - JM2605: Price at 1138.5, relatively resistant to decline. Affected by the Indonesian government's policy, the recent Mongolian coal customs clearance has fluctuated, and there is support from the expected tightening of imported coal supply [6]. - I2605: Price at 760.5, expected to be weak first and then strong. Australian and Brazilian shipments have recovered while arrivals have declined. The output of five major steel products has turned down, and demand has decreased. Steel mills' pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end [6]. 2.2 Spread Strategies - For cross - period and cross - variety spreads such as RB05 - 07, J05 - 09, JM05 - 09, I05 - 09, RB/I, HC - RB, J/JM, no clear trading directions are given [6]. 3. Core Views - Steel: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, black commodity futures may turn from weak to strong [8][32]. - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, coke and coking coal futures may enter a new upward cycle [10][54]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [12][85]. 4. Industry Analysis by Category 4.1 Steel 4.1.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major rebar and hot - rolled coil spot markets declined [13]. - Production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased, while the average daily output of key large and medium - sized enterprises' crude steel decreased. The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of electric arc furnace steel mills decreased significantly [14][17]. - Inventory: The weekly output of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and both factory and social inventories increased [17][22]. - Demand: The apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the disk profit of rebar 2605 contract showed a narrowing loss [27]. - Profit: The loss of long - process steel mills' rebar spot tonnage profit narrowed, while that of short - process steel mills continued to fall [31]. 4.1.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The price has limited room for continuous decline, but the short - term weakness is difficult to reverse. Wait for the pre - Spring Festival negative factors to be realized [31][32]. - Basis: The rebar basis is expected to fluctuate between 100 - 170 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil basis is expected to fluctuate between - 30 - 30 yuan/ton [35][36]. 4.2 Coke and Coking Coal 4.2.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price: In the week of February 6, the price of major coke spot markets remained stable, and some coking coal markets declined [38]. - Production: The daily output and capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises' coke production increased [38]. - Inventory: Coke inventories in ports, steel enterprises, and coking plants all increased, and the loss of independent coking enterprises narrowed [41]. - Import and Inventory of Coking Coal: In 2025, the import of coking coal decreased. The port coking coal inventory decreased, while that of coking plants and steel enterprises increased [46]. - Production of Raw Coal and Coke: In 2025, the production of raw coal and coke increased [51]. 4.2.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Coke and Coking Coal: Supported by the expected tightening of imported coal supply, they may remain relatively resistant to decline. After the pre - Spring Festival negative factors are realized, they may enter a new upward cycle [53][54]. 4.3 Iron Ore 4.3.1 Fundamental Analysis - Price and Spread: The 62% Platts iron ore index and the price of 61.5% PB powder in Qingdao Port declined. The spreads of some high - grade and low - grade ores changed [55]. - Inventory and Shipping: 45 - port iron ore inventory increased, and the daily shipping volume increased. Steel mills' import ore inventory days increased [61]. - Shipment and Arrival: Australian and Brazilian shipments showed different trends, and the overall shipment volume decreased. The arrival volume is expected to show a trend of low first and high later [69][70]. - Domestic Production: In 2025, domestic iron ore production decreased, and the capacity utilization rate of mines decreased. The production before the Spring Festival is expected to weaken [70]. - Transaction Volume and Cost: The 5 - day moving average of the main port iron ore transaction volume increased, and the average iron - water cost of 64 sample steel mills increased [73]. - Iron - Water Output and Related Indicators: The average daily iron - water output increased slightly, and the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate increased [75]. - Steel Production and Inventory: The actual weekly output of five major steel products decreased, the consumption decreased, and the inventory increased [78]. - Transportation Cost: The main iron ore freight prices and related freight indices decreased [80]. 4.3.2 Conclusions and Recommendations - Iron Ore: The price is expected to be weak first and then strong. High port inventories and the expected increase in annual supply will continue to suppress the upside space. One can consider buying hedging or investment strategies at the lower end of the shock range [85]. - Basis: The basis between the spot price of iron ore in Qingdao Port and the main futures contract is expected to fluctuate between 40 - 100 yuan/ton [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.65%, and the volume and open interest increased. Currently, both the supply and demand sides of rebar have weakened, the fundamental weakness remains unchanged, and steel prices in the off - season continue to be under pressure. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated weakly with a daily decline of 0.43%, and the volume and open interest decreased. At present, the supply of hot - rolled coil is at a high level, while the demand has weakened, and the fundamentals are weak. The price of hot - rolled coil will still be under pressure and oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the demand performance and beware of the pressure caused by the intensification of the contradiction of weakening demand [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore declined weakly with a daily decline of 1.23%, and the volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the demand for iron ore is weakly stable, while the supply pressure still exists. The fundamentals of iron ore continue to weaken, and the inventory is rising at a high level. Under the dominance of the real - world logic, the price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly. Attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Industry Dynamics - In January 2026, the global manufacturing PMI was 51%, up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, ending the continuous 10 - month running trend below 50%. By region, the manufacturing PMI in Africa decreased to 49.6%, that in Europe rose to 50%, that in Asia slightly decreased to 51%, and that in the Americas rose to 51.8% [7]. - In January 2026, the average monthly working hours of China's main construction machinery products were 72.5 hours, a year - on - year increase of 23.9% and a month - on - month decrease of 5.19%, among which excavators were 62.8 hours. The average monthly start - up rate of main construction machinery products was 48.1%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.63 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 3.63 percentage points, among which excavators were 48.6% [8]. - Anglo American raised its iron ore production target for 2026. The total iron ore output in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 15.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 5%. The total iron ore sales volume in the fourth quarter was 16.17 million tons, basically flat year - on - year and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 12%. The annual iron ore output in 2025 was 60.8 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease of 2%, and the cumulative annual iron ore sales volume was 61.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The annual iron ore production guidance target for 2026 was raised to 55 - 59 million tons (previously 54 - 58 million tons). Among them, the output of the Kumba mine is 31 - 33 million tons, and that of the Minas - Rio mine is 24 - 26 million tons [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,190, 3,160 and 3,306 respectively; the spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin and the national average were 3,250, 3,150 and 3,284 respectively; the price of Tangshan billet was 2,930; the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160; the coil - rebar price difference was 60, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1,030. The price changes of rebar, hot - rolled coil, Tangshan billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 0, - 10, 0, 0 respectively [10]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 756 with a change of - 9; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 767 with a change of - 1; the sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 8.34 and 23.57 respectively with changes of - 0.01 and - 0.39; the SGX swap price was 100.90 with a change of - 1.60; the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 100.30 with a change of - 1.95 [10]. 3.3 Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,077, with a decline of 0.65%, the highest price was 3,111, the lowest price was 3,074, the trading volume was 723,307, the volume difference was 41,902, the open interest was 1,915,253, and the open interest difference was 67,582 [14]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,251, with a decline of 0.43%, the highest price was 3,270, the lowest price was 3,250, the trading volume was 276,669, the volume difference was - 7,206, the open interest was 1,484,610, and the open interest difference was - 10,036 [14]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 760.5, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 772.0, the lowest price was 760.0, the trading volume was 216,259, the volume difference was - 115,477, the open interest was 514,745, and the open interest difference was - 10,368 [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report presents charts of steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, as well as iron ore inventories in 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines [16][22]. - It also shows charts of steel mill production, such as the blast furnace start - up rate and capacity utilization of 247 sample steel mills, the start - up rate of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profitability of 94 independent electric arc - furnace steel mills [31][33]. 3.5 Market Outlook - For rebar, both supply and demand have seasonally weakened, and inventory has continued to accumulate. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 81,500 tons month - on - month, and the supply has shrunk, but the inventory level is significantly higher than the same lunar period last year, and the pressure relief is limited. The demand for rebar continues to be seasonally weak, and the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions have both shrunk significantly. Considering that there is no improvement in downstream industries, the weak demand pattern is difficult to change. The relative positive factor is the policy expectation after the holiday. It is expected to continue the trend of oscillating to find the bottom, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation during the holiday [39]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern has changed little, and the inventory has increased again. The production of plate mills has stabilized, the weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 50 tons month - on - month, and the overall level remains relatively high, and the inventory level is high, so the supply pressure remains. The demand for hot - rolled coil has weakened, the weekly apparent demand decreased by 58,700 tons month - on - month, and the high - frequency daily transactions have continued to run at a low level. The relative positive factor is that the output of downstream cold - rolled products remains at a high level, which supports the demand for hot - rolled coil. However, attention should be paid to the potential pressure from the intensification of demand - weakening contradictions, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the inventory continues to rise. The production of steel mills has stabilized, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has slightly rebounded. The daily average pig iron output and the daily consumption of imported ore of sample steel mills have both increased this week. However, considering that the profitability of steel mills has not improved and the contradictions in the steel market have accumulated, the demand improvement is limited. At the same time, the arrival volume at domestic ports is weakly stable, but the shipping volume of miners continues to increase, and the overseas supply of iron ore has stabilized and rebounded. Even though the domestic supply of iron ore has seasonally shrunk, the supply pressure remains under the high - inventory situation. The price of iron ore is under pressure and runs weakly under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the shipping situation of miners [40].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing an unusual "reverse game" characterized by high prices and record inventories, leading to a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics [2][3][5]. Inventory Situation - As of February 5, 2026, iron ore inventories at 45 major ports in China reached 170.22 million tons, with 47 ports totaling 177.58 million tons, both surpassing the 170 million ton mark and hitting a two-year high [3][4]. - The inventory increase is attributed to stable supply from major global mines and a seasonal slowdown in demand as steel mills prepare for the upcoming Spring Festival [8]. Price Dynamics - The price of 62% Australian iron ore remained high at $102.70 per ton as of February 5, 2026, despite the high inventory levels [2]. - The market is characterized by a standoff where buyers are reluctant to purchase at high prices due to the inventory situation, while sellers, particularly those with higher-cost inventory, are hesitant to sell at lower prices [12][24]. Steel Mills' Strategies - Steel mills are facing pressure to manage procurement carefully, balancing the risk of inventory devaluation against the need to ensure raw material availability during production [14][15]. - The procurement strategies have shifted towards risk management, utilizing long-term contracts and futures to stabilize costs and mitigate price volatility [16][18]. Market Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to experience a phase of supply surplus, particularly in the second half of 2026, as new capacities come online, which may limit price increases [20]. - The interplay between steel mill production rates and inventory replenishment will significantly influence short-term price movements, with expectations of price fluctuations rather than a clear upward trend [25].

Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market is experiencing a rare "reverse game" with high prices and record inventories, leading to a complex situation where traders are reluctant to sell while steel mills are cautious in their purchasing [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of February 5, 2026, the price of 62% Australian iron ore remained high at $102.70 per ton, while inventories at major ports reached a record 170.22 million tons, marking a significant increase in stock levels [2][5]. - The average daily discharge of iron ore from 45 ports dropped significantly to 2.6867 million tons, a decrease of 614,600 tons week-on-week, indicating a slowdown in demand from steel mills [4][5]. - The accumulation of inventory is attributed to stable supply from major mines and seasonal demand slowdown as steel mills prepare for maintenance during the upcoming holiday [5][6]. Group 2: Pricing Pressure - High inventory levels are exerting natural pressure on market prices, with the main iron ore futures contract closing at 768.5 yuan per ton, down 1.73% [7]. - Traders are holding back on selling due to high acquisition costs, creating a stalemate where buyers are reluctant to purchase at elevated prices while sellers are hesitant to lower prices significantly [7][8]. - Regional price differences are emerging, with variations in pricing between ports reflecting local supply and demand dynamics, further complicating market expectations [7][8]. Group 3: Strategic Responses - Steel mills are adopting a cautious approach to procurement, emphasizing risk management and cost control amid low profit margins, with only 39.39% of mills currently profitable [9][10]. - Long-term contracts and futures trading are being utilized as tools to stabilize costs and manage price volatility, allowing mills to hedge against potential price increases [10][12]. - The trend towards refined procurement strategies is becoming common, with mills favoring lower-cost materials and optimizing inventory management to enhance profitability [11][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The iron ore market is expected to face ongoing supply-demand imbalances, with a projected increase in global supply later in the year, which may further pressure prices [14][15]. - The recovery of steel mill profits and demand from end-users remains uncertain, with potential impacts on iron ore purchasing behavior post-holiday [16][18]. - The interplay of high inventories and cautious purchasing strategies will define the market dynamics leading into the post-holiday period, with price fluctuations likely to continue [19][20].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: February 6, 2026 - Research Institution: Guangda Futures Research Institute [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on iron ore contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads, and also shows the relevant historical data charts, which can help investors understand the current market situation of iron ore [3][7][15] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 13.0, 13.5, and 12.5 respectively compared with the previous day - The spreads of I05 - I09 and I01 - I05 increased by 0.5, while the spread of I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 [3] 3.2 Basis - The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the price of Ukrainian iron concentrate dropping by 16.0, and the prices of some varieties remaining unchanged - The basis of most varieties increased, among which the basis of FMG mixed powder increased by 4, and the basis of some varieties of iron concentrate increased by 13 [7] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The spreads of PB block - PB powder and Newman block - Newman powder increased by 6.0 - The spreads of PB powder - mixed powder and Jinbuba - mixed powder decreased by 3.0 - The spreads of other varieties remained mostly unchanged or changed slightly [15] 3.4 Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added starting from the I2202 contract, with a brand premium of 0 - The brand premiums of PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder were adjusted to 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands were set to 0 - The allowable ranges of iron grade and other element indicators were adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators was introduced - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were added with a brand premium of 0, applicable to contracts starting from I2312 [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - Supply is stabilizing and rising, downstream profits are stable, hot metal production is fluctuating within a narrow range, downstream demand is decent, short - term supply - demand is loose, and iron ore inventory in steel mills is rising rapidly, so iron ore may experience weak and volatile trends [4] - The monthly spread of iron ore may remain volatile in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Weather - Precipitation in Brazil has decreased [5][6] Supply - Global iron ore shipments are rising steadily. Reuters data shows that on February 1, 2026, the 7 - day moving average shipment volume of global iron ore (excluding mainland China) was 4473 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.4% and a year - on - year increase of 63%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Australia was 2352 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.8% and a year - on - year increase of 125%. The 7 - day moving average shipment volume of Brazil was 1052 thousand tons, with a week - on - week increase of 16% and a year - on - year increase of 0.78% [18][19][25] - The total arrival volume is rising. The total arrival volume of Reuters' data has increased, while the arrival volume of 45 ports in Mysteel's data decreased by 45000 tons last week [42][93] - The shipments of the three major Australian mines in Mysteel's data are generally rising [64] - The total output of domestic mines has slightly decreased [98] Demand - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined, and hot metal production has slightly decreased. The daily average hot metal production of 247 samples was 228000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1 million tons [101] - The profit of finished steel products is stable, and the scrap - to - pig iron price difference in Tangshan is stable [105] - The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports last week was 3.3231 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 220000 tons [113] - The spot trading volume of iron ore has declined, while the forward - looking spot trading volume has increased [120] - The weekly production of five major steel products has slightly increased, the profit of finished steel products is stable, the demand for rebar has slightly decreased, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has increased. The inventory of rebar has slightly increased, the inventory of steel billets has continued to rise, and the inventory of hot - rolled coils has continued to decline [128][140] Inventory - Port inventory: The inventory of 45 ports has increased by 2.55 million tons, and the proportion of traded ore is 66.01%, a week - on - week decrease [148] - Steel mill inventory: The total imported iron ore inventory of steel mills has increased by 5.798 million tons, the inventory in steel mills has increased by 1.8 million tons, the sum of sea - floating and port inventory has increased by 4 million tons, and the available days of imported iron ore have increased by 4 days to 27 days [159] Price - Futures and spot prices are fluctuating and declining, the basis is stable, and the 5 - 9 monthly spread has slightly decreased [166] - The basis: Futures and spot prices are weakening, and the basis is stable. The basis ratio of the 05 contract is about 3.6%, and the basis is basically stable with a slight increase in the basis ratio [4][168] - Spreads: The premium of Brazilian fines has stabilized and rebounded, the premiums of mainstream medium and low - grade ores are stable, and the price difference between domestic and foreign ores is slightly high [175][178] - Premiums: The mainstream powder costs have stabilized. The average value of the Platts Index in January was 100, corresponding to a disk valuation of about 740 [185][189] Balance Sheet - The iron ore shipments are stabilizing and rising, significantly higher year - on - year. The near - term import volume of iron ore has been raised [190][191]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-06 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...