Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **Precious Metals**: Affected by weak US employment data, the ADP employment in August only increased by 54,000, strengthening the expectation of the Fed to cut interest rates in September. Multiple factors jointly support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Copper**: The market focus is on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, personnel adjustment, independence issues, and bond - market risks. Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to relatively tight supply and the stimulus of US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation [17]. - **Aluminum**: In the short term, aluminum fluctuates with an upward bias, but there is pressure above. To break through the 21,000 pressure level, the peak - season expectations need to be fulfilled, demand should improve significantly, and inventory should start to decline. Alumina has insufficient upward drive in the short term, and its price is approaching the 2,880 yuan cost line. Cast aluminum alloy is more resilient due to cost support [37][38][39]. - **Zinc**: In the short term, zinc shows a pattern of being strong overseas and weak domestically. Observe macro and consumption factors, and it will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Nickel**: Currently, the nickel ore price has a slight decline, other nickel products are basically stable, and the MHP benchmark price has an upward trend. Stainless - steel inventory has decreased for several weeks, and demand sentiment has improved in the peak season. Sulfuric - nickel prices are stable. Pay continuous attention to the impact of interest - rate cut expectations and the US dollar trend [83]. - **Tin**: In the short term, tin prices have an upward driving force due to tight supply, despite certain demand pressure [98]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. If the conversion of orders to actual transactions is less than expected, the market may remain weakly oscillating; if the receiving demand is gradually released, prices may be supported [110]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: In the short term, industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September. In the medium - to - long term, they have an upward expectation. Polysilicon is in a "wide - range oscillation" state, and short - term price fluctuations due to news stimuli should be vigilant [119]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: Weak US employment data, the signing of the US - Japan trade agreement, investigations into the Fed's independence, and the expansion of the US trade deficit support the strong operation of gold prices [3]. - **Market Data**: Various data on SHFE and COMEX gold and silver prices, inventory, and long - term fund positions are presented [4][12][16]. Copper - **Price Movement**: Copper prices rose due to multiple factors but fell on Wednesday. In the short term, they may remain strong due to supply and demand factors [17]. - **Market Data**: Include copper futures and spot prices, import and export data, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai copper futures' main contract is 80,140 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.46% [18][23][33]. Aluminum - **Price Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating with an upward bias in the short term, while alumina prices are under pressure. Cast aluminum alloy is relatively resilient [37][38][39]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures and spot prices, inventory, and basis [40][54][63]. Zinc - **Price Trend**: In the short term, zinc prices show an overseas - strong and domestic - weak pattern and will mainly fluctuate [68]. - **Market Data**: Include zinc futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract is 22,155 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [69][74][79]. Nickel - **Market Situation**: Nickel ore prices decline slightly, other nickel products are stable, and the MHP benchmark price rises. Stainless - steel demand improves in the peak season, and sulfuric - nickel prices are stable [83]. - **Market Data**: Present data on nickel and stainless - steel futures prices, inventory, and downstream profit margins [84][93]. Tin - **Price Driving Force**: Tin prices are driven up by tight supply in the short term [98]. - **Market Data**: Include tin futures and spot prices, inventory data, etc. For example, the latest price of Shanghai tin futures' main contract is 272,460 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.16% [99][104][106]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Trend**: The market is in an oscillating adjustment stage. The future trend depends on downstream receiving demand [110]. - **Market Data**: Provide data on lithium carbonate futures and spot prices, inventory, and price differences [111][113][117]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Price Outlook**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be flat in September and have an upward expectation in the medium - to - long term. Polysilicon remains in a "wide - range oscillation" state [119]. - **Market Data**: Include industrial silicon and polysilicon spot and futures prices, inventory, and production data [120][121][140].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for different varieties within various sectors. 2. Core Viewpoints - The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern after significant gains, and the volatility has increased. The bond market is likely to remain range-bound, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. The shipping index is weakly oscillating, and the steel and iron ore markets are affected by supply and demand factors. The energy and chemical sectors show different trends, and the agricultural products market is influenced by factors such as supply expectations and seasonal reports [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The current basis rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts are -0.36%, -0.37%, -0.77%, and -0.54% respectively. The A-share market may enter a high-level oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The 10-year treasury bond interest rate may oscillate between 1.74% - 1.8%, and the T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.6 - 108.4. It is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The safe-haven sentiment has subsided, and the precious metals market has ended its continuous rise and slightly declined. It is recommended to buy gold cautiously at low prices or use out-of-the-money call options for hedging. For silver, short-term high-sell and low-buy operations are recommended [2]. Black - **Steel**: The steel price is affected by production restrictions and off-season demand. It is recommended to pay attention to the long position of the steel-ore ratio. The iron ore price fluctuates with the steel price, and it is recommended to conduct range operations [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot price is oscillating weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increases by mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the coking profit continues to recover. It is recommended to reduce short positions appropriately and conduct arbitrage operations [2]. Non-Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has risen, and the spot trading is weak. The main contract reference range is 79,000 - 81,000 [2]. - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The supply of aluminum is highly certain, and it is necessary to focus on the fulfillment of peak-season demand and the inventory inflection point. The main contract reference ranges for aluminum, aluminum alloy, zinc, tin, nickel, and stainless steel are provided [2]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The EIA inventory increase and supply increment expectations put pressure on the oil price. It is recommended to take a short position. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are provided [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Different chemicals such as urea, PX, PTA, short fiber, bottle chip, ethylene glycol, caustic soda, PVC, benzene, styrene, synthetic rubber, LLDPE, PP, methanol, and others have different trends and corresponding investment suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The abundant harvest expectation suppresses the US soybean price, while the domestic expectation remains positive. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the 01 contract. The palm oil is waiting for the MPOB report, and the short-term oscillation range is provided [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The supply and demand contradiction in the pig market is limited, and the market shows a weakly oscillating pattern. The corn price is oscillating and adjusting, and it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: The overseas sugar supply is expected to be loose, and the raw sugar price has broken through the support level. It is recommended to gradually close short positions. The cotton inventory is low, and it is recommended to wait and see. The egg market has some demand support, but the long-term trend is still bearish. The apple price is running around 8,350, and the jujube price has dropped significantly. The soda ash and glass markets are in a bearish pattern, and it is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - **Rubber**: The rubber market has a strong fundamental situation, and the price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to short at high positions if the raw material price rises smoothly [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The spot price has risen slightly, and the main price fluctuation range is expected to be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The self-discipline supports the polysilicon price to rise temporarily, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market sentiment has improved, and the fundamental situation remains in a tight balance. It is recommended to wait and see [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term trend is to go long on dips. The bond market is expected to be volatile in the short term, and interest rates may decline in the long term. For most commodities, the market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and macro - economic conditions, and different trading strategies are recommended for different commodities [3][5]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Stock Index - **News**: The State Council aims to boost the sports industry, the central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, US Treasury yields decline, and Goldman Sachs predicts a potential rise in gold prices [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided, showing negative values [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level sectors like AI are adjusting, and trading volume is shrinking. However, policy support for the capital market remains, so the long - term strategy is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, and TF rose, while TS declined. The central bank conducts a 10000 - billion - yuan reverse repurchase, and the State Council promotes sports consumption. The central bank conducts a 2126 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase with a net withdrawal of 2035 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI improved in August but is still below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a loose monetary policy. Interest rates may decline in the long term, but the bond market may be volatile in the short term [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Shanghai gold and silver, and COMEX gold and silver all declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield is 4.17%, and the US dollar index is 98.29 [6]. - **Outlook**: US employment data is weak, and Fed officials are dovish. The labor market has weakened. Gold and silver prices are supported at high levels. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices declined. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social inventory increased. The price is supported by tight supply and approaching peak season. Reference price ranges for Shanghai and LME copper are provided [9]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices declined. Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory is relatively low, and demand is improving. The price is expected to be volatile, with reference price ranges provided [10]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Zinc ore is in the seasonal inventory - building stage, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price is expected to be in a low - level volatile pattern [11][12]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices declined slightly. The supply of lead is expected to decrease marginally, and the price is expected to strengthen [13]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices oscillated. The short - term macro - environment is positive, and the price is supported by various factors. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference price ranges provided [14]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices oscillated narrowly. Supply is tight due to slow复产 and planned maintenance, while demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to be volatile [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: The price of lithium carbonate contracts adjusted weakly, but the A - share lithium battery sector strengthened. Supply and demand are improving. It is recommended to pay attention to overseas raw material supply, with a reference price range provided [16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices declined. Supply and demand are in an oversupply situation, but the price decline space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range provided [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices declined. The market is in a consolidation pattern due to factors such as the decline in nickel prices and weak demand [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices declined. The market is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to be high - level due to cost support and increased market activity [20][21]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend but were under pressure. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. If demand does not improve, prices may decline further [23][24]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices rose. Overseas shipments increased, and demand decreased. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and the focus is on the recovery of demand in the peak season [25][26]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Prices are stable, and the market is generally stable. Supply is high, and inventory pressure is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and may follow the macro - environment in the long term [27]. - **Soda Ash**: Prices are stable, and inventory pressure is slightly increasing. The price is expected to be volatile in the short term and may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [28]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices declined. The "anti - involution" sentiment has faded, and prices are moving towards fundamentals. Manganese silicon may remain weak, and ferrosilicon depends on downstream demand. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [29][30][31]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose slightly. Supply is increasing, and demand is insufficient. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, with a reference price range provided [32][33]. Polysilicon - **Market**: Polysilicon prices rose slightly. The market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it may rise further if positive news emerges [34][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices oscillated strongly. The price is affected by weather and supply - demand expectations. It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term bullish strategy, with specific trading suggestions provided [37][40]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil and related product prices declined. Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and the macro - environment is bearish, the price is undervalued, and it is a good time for left - hand side layout [41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices declined. Supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward space is limited due to potential factors. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices were stable. Supply pressure has eased, but demand is weak. The price is expected to be in a range, and it is recommended to consider long positions on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene spot prices rose, and futures prices declined. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and the price may rebound after the inventory - reduction inflection point [44]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose slightly. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and the export outlook is weak. It is recommended to consider short positions [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply is still in an oversupply situation, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium term. The price may decline in the medium term [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices declined. Supply has changed from inventory - building to inventory - reduction, and demand is improving. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following PX [48][49]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices declined. The load is high, and the price is supported by low inventory and improving downstream data. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips following crude oil [50]. Polyethylene - **Market**: Polyethylene prices declined. Supply is limited, and demand may increase in the peak season. The price is expected to oscillate upward [51]. Polypropylene - **Market**: Polypropylene prices declined. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in a seasonal rebound. The market has no prominent contradictions in the short term [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices generally declined. Supply is expected to be weak in September, but demand and other factors may support the price. It is recommended to wait and see and consider far - month reverse spreads [56]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices were stable or rose. Supply is stable, and demand is increasing due to festival stocking. The price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term, but there may be pressure in the medium term [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybeans rose slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rebounded. The supply of global protein raw materials is in an oversupply situation, and the price is expected to be in a range. It is recommended to consider long positions on dips at the low - cost range [58][59]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Oils and fats oscillated. Palm oil exports in Malaysia increased, and production decreased. The price is supported by various factors and is expected to be strongly volatile. It is recommended to be bullish on palm oil in the fourth quarter [60][61]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices declined. Domestic sugar imports increased, and there is an expectation of increased production in Guangxi. The long - term view is bearish, and the price trend depends on the international market [62][64]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices oscillated. Global cotton production and inventory are expected to decline. The price is expected to be volatile at a high level in the short term due to potential improvement in fundamentals [65][66].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Precious Metals and Non - ferrous Metals Industry Daily Report - Authors: Xu Liang, Tang Yun [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Core View - The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September (with a probability of nearly 90%), geopolitical tensions, and Trump's dismissal of a Fed governor have triggered a crisis of confidence in US dollar assets, boosting safe - haven demand. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases and the de - dollarization trend provide long - term support for gold prices. The market is focused on tomorrow's US non - farm payroll data for guidance on the rate - cut path [3] Specific Data and Information - SHFE gold and silver futures prices and related charts are presented, including price trends, COMEX gold prices, and gold - silver ratios [4] - Gold long - term fund holdings and silver long - term fund holdings are also shown [11][12] - SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures - spot price differences are provided [6][13] Group 3: Copper Core View - Overseas copper mine disruptions have led to a decline in domestic spot processing fees. Tight resources are reflected in the decline of LME copper inventory and high domestic spot premiums. The Yangshan copper premium has climbed to $55/ton, indicating strong import demand. The traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" in China has boosted refined copper consumption expectations. Although downstream restocking has promoted transactions, traders' high - price aversion has suppressed trading activity [16] Specific Data and Information - Copper futures and spot data, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.56% [17][22] - Copper import profit and loss, processing fees, and refined - scrap price differences are also presented [27][31] - Copper warehouse receipts and inventory data, such as SHFE copper warehouse receipts and LME copper inventory, are given [32][34] Group 4: Aluminum Core View - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has increased, and domestic policies are also gradually taking effect, which is beneficial to aluminum prices. Although there are some production and transportation controls during the September parade, the demand in the peak season shows signs of recovery. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but it needs to meet the peak - season expectations to break through the 21,000 resistance level [36] - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite may face greater volatility in the future. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, with high domestic operating capacity and expected oversupply in the second half of the year. Although some alumina plants in Henan have received environmental protection production - limit notices, the impact is mainly short - term [37] - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax rebates for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in production capacity utilization, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [38] Specific Data and Information - Aluminum and alumina futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE aluminum main contract is 20,710 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 10 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.05% [39] - Aluminum and alumina price differences and inventory data, such as warehouse receipts and LME inventory, are presented [43][55] Group 5: Zinc Core View - The supply of zinc is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc ore price has an advantage, and the increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large. Overseas zinc ore supply is abundant, but overseas refined zinc production has limited growth. The demand is relatively stable and may improve during the "Golden September and Silver October." The LME inventory has continued to decline, and the zinc price shows a pattern of being stronger overseas and weaker domestically. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate [61] Specific Data and Information - Zinc futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE zinc main contract is 22,285 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.18% [62] - Zinc inventory data, such as SHFE zinc warehouse receipts and LME zinc inventory, are given [71] Group 6: Nickel Core View - The first - phase benchmark price of nickel in Indonesia in September shows that nickel ore prices are basically stable with a slight decline, and other nickel products are also stable. The MHP benchmark price has increased due to demand. Nickel iron prices are relatively firm, stainless steel prices are strong, and the demand for the peak season in September and October is warming up. Sulfate nickel prices are stable, and the impact of the riots in Indonesia on production has subsided [74] Specific Data and Information - Nickel futures prices, trading volume, open interest, and warehouse receipt data are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE nickel main contract is 121,790 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 1% [75] - Nickel spot prices, downstream profit data, and nickel ore price and inventory data are presented [79][81][83] Group 7: Tin Core View - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to the tight supply. Yunnan Tin's planned 45 - day maintenance starting from August 30 and the decline in refined tin production in August 2025 have contributed to this. In the short term, tin prices still have upward momentum due to the tight supply [88] Specific Data and Information - Tin futures and spot prices, including prices, daily changes, and price change rates, are provided. For example, the latest price of SHFE tin main contract is 273,120 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 860 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.31% [89][95] - Tin inventory data, such as SHFE tin warehouse receipts and LME tin inventory, are given [99] Group 8: Lithium Carbonate Core View - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment stage. The supply side has no new news, and the demand side has a marginal improvement expectation, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress short - term futures prices. The market trend depends on the actual downstream receiving situation [105] Specific Data and Information - Lithium carbonate futures prices, including daily and weekly changes, are provided. For example, the latest price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 71,880 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 740 yuan and a weekly decrease of 7,500 yuan [106] - Lithium spot prices, including prices of lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and lithium carbonate, are presented [110] - Lithium carbonate inventory data, such as Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and social inventory, are given [113] Group 9: Silicon Industry Chain Core View - **Industrial Silicon**: In the short term, it is in a narrow - range shock, and the shock range is expected to narrow further. In the medium - to - long term, the increase in power costs during the dry season will support prices [116] - **Polysilicon**: It is in a clear box - shock range. There is no strong driver to break the shock pattern for now, and it is necessary to track volume changes and breakthrough signals. The market is sensitive to news and may experience significant price fluctuations [116] Specific Data and Information - Industrial silicon spot prices, including prices at different ports and grades, are provided [117] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon futures prices, price differences, and related inventory and production data are presented [118][131][134]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Macro aspect: Fed's dovish stance boosts copper price, but concerns about "stagflation" limit upside. Future rate - cut amplitude is uncertain. - Fundamental aspect: It shows "weak reality + stable expectation". Demand may weaken marginally, but supply elasticity is low. With improved rate - cut expectation and domestic stimulus, copper price may at least maintain a range - bound movement and enter an upward cycle when commodity and financial attributes resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 78,500 - 81,000 [1]. Zinc - Supply: Overseas mines are in the up - cycle of production and resumption. High TC encourages smelters, and the supply of refined zinc increased in July. - Demand: Entering the peak season, spot trading has improved. The decline in the operating rates of primary processing industries is limited. - Outlook: Supply is expected to be loose, and the price may range - bound. Upward rebound needs better demand or non - recession rate - cut expectation, while downward breakthrough requires stronger TC or continuous inventory build - up. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum Alumina - Market situation: It presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". Supply is under pressure from new capacity, while demand growth from electrolytic aluminum is limited. - Outlook: The price is approaching the cost range, with limited downside. Upside needs supply disruptions from Guinea or sentiment catalysts. The reference range for the main contract is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum - Macro and fundamental: Fed's rate - cut expectation and improved fundamentals support the price, but high prices suppress downstream procurement. - Outlook: It is expected to range - bound between 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve, the price may fall. Tracking inventory and policy implementation is necessary [7]. Aluminum Alloy - Supply: Seasonal demand weakness and import restrictions tighten the supply of scrap aluminum, supporting costs. Tax policy adjustments lead to production cuts in some regions. - Demand: Terminal consumption is weak, but there are signs of improvement in some die - casting orders. - Outlook: If imports are limited, the spot price may remain firm, and the price difference with aluminum may narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply: Tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low. Domestic tin ore imports are at a low level, and the actual output from Myanmar may be delayed to the fourth quarter. - Demand: Demand from the photovoltaic and electronics sectors has declined. - Outlook: With positive policy expectations, the price is in a strong - side range - bound movement. If supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy can be considered; otherwise, it may remain high - side range - bound. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000 [10]. Nickel - Macro: US easing expectation and positive domestic policy expectation. - Industry: Nickel price is stable, nickel ore price is firm, and nickel - iron price is strong. Stainless - steel demand is weak, and supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term. - Outlook: The price decline is limited by cost, and the price may range - bound. The reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 [11]. Stainless Steel - Macro: Fed's rate - cut expectation and positive domestic policies ease export pressure and improve demand expectation. - Industry: Raw material prices are firm, nickel - iron negotiation range has moved up, and there are supply - side disturbances in ferrochrome. Production may increase, but demand is still weak. - Outlook: Cost support is strong, but demand restricts the price. The price may range - bound, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 [13]. Lithium Carbonate - Market: The futures market continued to fall. The fundamentals are in a tight - balance state, with supply contraction and stable demand. - Outlook: After the price center moves down, it may range - bound widely. The reference range for the main contract is 70,000 - 75,000 [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price and Basis Copper - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price rose to 80,160 yuan/ton, up 0.33% [1]. - SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 220 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - SMM 0 zinc ingot price rose to 22,150 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [4]. - The premium in Guangdong was - 80 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - SMM A00 aluminum price rose to 20,710 yuan/ton, up 0.44% [7]. - SMM A00 aluminum premium rose to - 20 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - SMM Southwest ADC12 price rose to 20,800 yuan/ton, up 0.48% [8]. Tin - SMM 1 tin price rose to 273,500 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [10]. - SMM 1 tin premium rose to 650 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 124,050 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [11]. - 1 Jinchuan nickel premium dropped to 2,100 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price rose to 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% [13]. Lithium Carbonate - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 77,500 yuan/ton, down 1.08% [14]. - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price dropped to 75,200 yuan/ton, down 1.12% [14]. Month - to - Month Spreads Copper - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to 20 yuan/ton [1]. Zinc - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to - 45 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum - 2509 - 2510 spread dropped to 15 yuan/ton [7]. Aluminum Alloy - 2511 - 2512 spread rose to - 10 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - 2509 - 2510 spread rose to - 320 yuan/ton [10]. Nickel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 200 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - 2510 - 2511 spread dropped to - 70 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - 2509 - 2511 spread rose to - 20 yuan/ton [14]. Fundamental Data Copper - August electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, down 0.24% [1]. - July electrolytic copper imports were 29.69 million tons, down 1.20% [1]. Zinc - August refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, up 3.88% [4]. - July refined zinc imports were 1.79 million tons, down 50.35% [4]. Aluminum - August alumina production was 773.82 million tons, up 1.15% [7]. - August electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, up 0.30% [7]. Aluminum Alloy - July recycled aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% [8]. - July primary aluminum alloy ingot production was 26.60 million tons, up 4.31% [8]. Tin - July tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, down 13.71% [10]. - SMM refined tin production in July was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% [10]. Nickel - Chinese refined nickel production was 37,800 tons, up 1.26% [11]. - Refined nickel imports were 19,157 tons, down 8.46% [11]. Stainless Steel - Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (43 companies) was 171.33 million tons, down 3.83% [13]. - Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production (Qinglong) was 36.00 million tons, unchanged [13]. Lithium Carbonate - August lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% [14]. - August lithium carbonate demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - Multiple factors such as the continuous fermentation of Fed Governor Cook's incident, the rebound of US PCE in July in line with expectations, and dovish remarks from Fed officials have strengthened the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, leading to the strong rise of precious metals and the expectation of a continued high - level and strong - side shock in the future [2]. - The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors for the non - ferrous metals market. Policy changes in the non - ferrous metals industry, production and supply situations, and consumption trends vary by metal type, affecting their respective price trends and providing different trading strategies [2][5][10] Summary by Metal Type Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Market Review**: London gold rose for five consecutive days, hitting a new high since April 22, up 0.83% to $3475.45 per ounce; London silver broke through the $40 mark for the first time since September 2011, up 2.48% to $40.674 per ounce. Affected by the external market, Shanghai gold rose 0.86% to 801.58 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.46% to 9836 yuan per kilogram [2]. - **Important Information**: Trump may declare a national housing emergency this fall, and the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September and October [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple factors strengthen the market's expectation of a rate cut in September, and the possibility of the US entering a "stagflation - like" situation is increasing, so precious metals are expected to continue a high - level and strong - side shock [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position of precious metals, consider holding the previous long positions based on the 5 - day moving average, and pay attention to the resistance at the $3500 integer mark of London gold. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai copper 2510 contract closed at 79660 yuan per ton, down 0.06%, and the LME closed at $9875 per ton, down 0.11%. LME inventory decreased by 25 tons to 15.88 million tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 2617 tons to 27.78 million tons [5]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed, and the German economic minister called for a strategy to deal with China's large - scale procurement of scrap copper [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment strengthens the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut. The supply of electrolytic copper is relatively sufficient, but the deliverable supply is relatively tight. Terminal consumption is weakening, but the substitution of refined copper for scrap copper is prominent [5][6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect high - level consolidation. For arbitrage, consider cross - market positive arbitrage, with a fast - in and fast - out approach for virtual - position positive arbitrage. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [7][8] Alumina - **Market Review**: The alumina 2510 contract rose 6 yuan to 2998 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with a decrease in Xinjiang [10]. - **Important Information**: An electrolytic aluminum plant in Xinjiang tendered for alumina, with a lower winning price. The national alumina operating capacity decreased slightly, and inventories increased [10][11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: Spot trading has become more frequent, but the spot price is expected to decline. The overall supply remains high, and inventory is expected to continue to increase [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the alumina price to maintain a weak trend. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [13] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 10 yuan to 20285 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were mostly stable, with an increase in the East China region [15]. - **Important Information**: Policy changes in the recycled aluminum industry are affecting some enterprises. Social inventories of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and imports decreased [15][16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Policy changes have affected the recycled aluminum industry, with a shortage of scrap aluminum. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the supply is tightening. Alloy ingot prices are expected to be stable and slightly stronger [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the price to fluctuate at a high level with the aluminum price. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [18][19] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of Shanghai aluminum 2510 contract rose 20 yuan to 20690 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions decreased. The price of thermal coal also decreased [21]. - **Important Information**: China's manufacturing PMI improved slightly, and aluminum ingot inventories increased. Two large - scale electrolytic aluminum projects are under construction [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment has both positive and negative factors. The output of aluminum rods increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots in factories decreased. The downstream processing industry is recovering [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the aluminum price to fluctuate with the external market in the short term. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [25] Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc rose 0.68% to $2833 per ton, and Shanghai zinc 2510 remained unchanged at 22195 yuan per ton. Spot trading in Shanghai was light [27]. - **Important Information**: Domestic zinc inventories increased, and a zinc smelter in Guangxi will undergo maintenance [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, but the output of refined zinc may decrease in September. The downstream consumption in North China is affected by environmental protection, while that in South and East China is improving [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the zinc price to be stronger in a certain range. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [29] Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead rose 0.5% to $2007 per ton, and Shanghai lead 2510 rose 0.53% to 16930 yuan per ton. Spot trading was weak [30]. - **Important Information**: A new standard for electric bicycles was implemented on September 1, 2025 [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and the production of lead smelters is decreasing. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the lead price to rise slightly. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [31] Nickel - **Market Review**: The LME nickel rose $70 to $15475 per ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2510 rose 630 yuan to 123400 yuan per ton. The premium of different nickel products decreased [34]. - **Important Information**: Demonstrations in Indonesia have not affected the nickel industry for now. New RKAB quota regulations will be implemented in September, and a Chinese company won a nickel mine project in the Solomon Islands [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is variable in September. The riots in Indonesia may affect market sentiment. The supply and demand in China are relatively balanced in the short term, and the price is expected to be stronger in a shock [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the nickel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [36][37] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2510 contract rose 130 yuan to 13005 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given [39]. - **Important Information**: Nickel prices are rising, and the global stainless steel output in the first half of 2025 is announced [39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The rise in nickel prices drives up the price of stainless steel. The inventory of stainless steel decreased slightly, and there is an optimistic expectation for the peak season in September [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the stainless steel price to be stronger in a shock. For arbitrage, adopt a wait - and - see approach [40] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose 0.89% to 8495 yuan per ton, and most spot prices were stable or slightly decreased [42]. - **Important Information**: A silicon - related standardization seminar will be held in September [43]. - **Logic Analysis**: The demand for industrial silicon from the organic silicon industry is expected to weaken, while the demand from polysilicon may increase. The supply is increasing, and the price may rebound in the short term [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect a short - term rebound. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, there is no strategy provided [43] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures rose 6.03% to 52285 yuan per ton. Spot prices of different types of polysilicon showed different trends [45]. - **Important Information**: Domestic polysilicon prices rose [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Although the output of polysilicon increases in September, the limited sales by enterprises and the increase in silicon wafer production provide upward momentum for the price [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, hold long positions and partially take profits near the previous high. For arbitrage, consider reverse arbitrage between the 11th and 12th contracts. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options and buy call options [47] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 1860 yuan to 75560 yuan per ton. Spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased [49]. - **Important Information**: Porsche adjusted its battery business, a battery factory in China was put into production, and Tianqi Lithium prepared for the industrialization of lithium sulfide [49][50][52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production of batteries and cathodes is increasing in September, but the output of lithium carbonate may be affected by raw materials. The price is looking for support, and opportunities to go long after stabilization should be noted [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, consider buying after the price stabilizes. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [52] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2510 contract rose 0.2% to 274320 yuan per ton. Spot prices decreased, and trading inquiries increased [54]. - **Important Information**: The US Treasury Secretary commented on the Fed [54]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The LME inventory increased, and attention should be paid to future production resumption and demand recovery [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the long - position, expect the tin price to fluctuate. For options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [56]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic supportive policies are gradually taking effect. In September, policies to promote service consumption will be the focus, which will support the growth of total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the actual effect remains to be seen. Policies in the real - estate sector are advancing, but their impact on the overall market may be limited. The profitability of industrial enterprises has not been fundamentally improved. Overseas, the US economy and employment have shown resilience, and key economic data next week should be closely monitored [2]. - The core issue of the RMB exchange rate is the timing and pace of appreciation. In the short - term, the RMB is likely to appreciate, and the market may reach a "triple - price integration" pattern around 7.10. In the medium - term, the RMB needs a clear downward trend of the US dollar index and substantial positive changes in the domestic economy to achieve a trend - strengthening [4][5]. - As the 9.3 parade approaches, the stock index is expected to have increased volatility. The stock market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, while the bond market may expand its rebound space if the stock market experiences a high - level adjustment after September 3 [7][8]. Commodities Metals - Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and strong in the short - term. The focus should be on US economic data this week, and the strategy is to buy on dips [12][15]. - Copper is expected to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision on September 19, with a mid - term strategy of low - level procurement [16][17]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short - term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be strongly oscillating at the bottom in the short - term [23][24]. - Nickel and stainless steel prices rose under the influence of the Indonesian riot and strike. The short - term trend remains to be seen, depending on the development of the situation in Indonesia [24][25]. - Tin is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term due to tight supply [26]. - The lithium carbonate market is in an adjustment phase. If downstream demand is released, prices may be supported; otherwise, it may remain weakly volatile [26][28]. - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to rise in an oscillatory manner. The rise of polysilicon is mainly affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a possible storage platform in September [29]. - Lead is expected to oscillate within a narrow range, with limited upside and downside [30]. Black Metals - Steel products continue to accumulate inventory beyond the seasonal norm. If demand does not improve, the downward space of the steel futures market depends on the tolerance of steel mills for profit shrinkage. Short - sellers can consider reducing positions to take profits [32][33]. - Iron ore prices have released risks. After the short - term risk release, short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. - Coking coal may maintain a high - level wide - range oscillatory pattern in the short - term. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade. Unilateral speculation on short - selling coking coal is not recommended for now [37]. - Silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to oscillate at the bottom. It is advisable to go long on the spread between the two when the spread reaches - 400 [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is currently oscillating weakly. In September, the demand decline is a definite negative factor, and the market needs to wait for key events to clarify the direction. The overall outlook is bearish [42][43]. - Propylene's spot market is strong, and the futures market is oscillating. The northern market is tighter than the southern market [44][45]. - PX - TA's market is mainly characterized by structural contradictions. The overall pattern is "tight at the top and loose at the bottom," and the processing fee of PTA01 is recommended to be compressed when it is above 350 [46][49]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4330 - 4550, and it is advisable to go long on dips [53]. - PP's supply is increasing, and the demand situation is unclear. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high - speed growth [54][55]. - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate for now [56][57]. - PVC's price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. With high inventory and weak demand, it is advisable to short - allocate it [58][59]. - Pure benzene is expected to be weakly oscillating, and for benzene - styrene, short - selling on the short - term single - side is not recommended. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider low - buying [60][61]. - Fuel oil has a weak rebound driven by cost, but the downward pressure remains. Low - sulfur fuel oil follows cost fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait for long - allocation opportunities [63][64]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate and strengthen, mainly following cost fluctuations. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance [65][66]. - Urea is in a stalemate. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67]. Group 3: Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Market Information - China's September 3 parade will last about 70 minutes. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization's Tianjin Summit has achieved eight results. There are various tariff - related news, including Trump's remarks on India's tariffs and possible US housing policies. There are also speculations about Fed officials' appointments [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The previous trading day, the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 basis points, and the night - session was at 7.1375. The central parity rate was 7.1072, down 42 basis points. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August showed expansion [3]. Stock Index - The stock index rose with reduced volume yesterday. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index closed up 0.60%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 483.37 billion yuan. The futures of stock index also rose with reduced volume. The 9.3 parade is approaching, and key economic data have been released [7]. Bond - Bond futures opened low and closed high on Monday. The yields of medium - and long - term bonds declined. The funding situation was loose, and DR001 dropped to 1.31%. Relevant policies and the end of the summer travel season have been reported [8]. Container Shipping - The futures prices of the container shipping index (European line) opened high and then oscillated. Spot prices of some shipping companies have changed. The Houthi armed forces' remarks have affected the market sentiment. The current market is in the off - season, and the SCFIS European line index has continued to decline [10][11]. Commodities Metals Gold and Silver - On Monday, the precious metals market continued to be strong. COMEX gold closed up 0.84% at 3545.8 dollars per ounce, and silver closed up 2.46% at 41.725 dollars per ounce. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and fund positions are stable. Key US economic data and events this week should be monitored [12][15]. Copper - The Shanghai copper index was slightly bullish on Monday. Chile's copper production in July increased slightly. The collapse of a copper mine in July and the reduction of production guidance in August have affected the market. The key factors affecting copper prices are complex, with both bullish and bearish factors in the short - to - medium - term [16][17]. Aluminum and Related Products - The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have changed. The macro - environment is favorable for aluminum prices. The fundamentals of alumina are weak, and the supply of cast aluminum alloy may be affected by tax policies [19][22]. Zinc - The zinc price opened high and closed low. The supply is in an oversupply state, and the demand is stable. The LME inventory is decreasing, and the trading strategy of selling the outer market and buying the inner market can be considered [23][24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of nickel rose, and stainless steel fell slightly. The spot prices of nickel - related products have changed. The market was affected by the Indonesian riot and strike, and the supply uncertainty has increased [24][25]. Tin - The Shanghai tin index slightly declined on Monday. Yunnan Tin's equipment maintenance and the decrease in refined tin production in August have affected the market. The short - term price may rise slightly due to tight supply [26]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fell on Monday. The prices of lithium - related products in the spot market have declined. The supply has no new news, and the demand has marginal improvement expectations, but the increase in warehouse receipts may suppress the short - term price [26]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon rose on Monday. The prices of related products in the spot market are stable. The rise of polysilicon is affected by macro - sentiment and the expectation of a storage platform [26][29]. Lead - The lead price oscillated narrowly. The supply side is weak, and the demand is in a "peak - season not prosperous" situation. The domestic inventory is oscillating, and the LME inventory is high [30]. Black Metals Steel - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased. The production of Tangshan's blast furnaces has been affected by inspections, and most are expected to resume production on September 4. The steel market is in a state of over - seasonal inventory accumulation, and the demand has not shown significant seasonal strength [32][33]. Iron Ore - The price of iron ore fell and then rebounded. The global iron ore shipment volume in late August increased. The market is worried about the insufficient demand in the peak season, and short - sellers are advised to take phased profits [34][35]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke declined. The prices of coking coal in some regions have decreased. The downstream's replenishment of raw materials has slowed down, and the supply of coking coal and coke is relatively loose. Coke may face a price cut cycle after the parade [36][37]. Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - The production and demand of silicon iron and silicon manganese have changed. The market was affected by the pre - parade steel mill restrictions and the decline of the "anti - involution" hype. The prices have fallen back, and the bottom support exists, but the upside is also under pressure [38][40]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The prices of US and Brent crude oil rose. There are news about the suspension of oil sales to an Indian refinery, the change in Shandong refineries' crude oil arrivals, and the expectation of OPEC+ to maintain production. The oil market is currently oscillating weakly, and the September demand decline is a negative factor [41][43]. Propylene - The futures prices of propylene rose slightly. The spot prices in different regions have changed. The supply and demand of propylene and its downstream products have changed. The spot market is tight, and the price is affected by multiple factors [44][45]. PTA - PX - The load of PX and PTA plants has changed. The supply of PX in September is expected to increase, and the PTA supply has decreased. The polyester demand has a marginal improvement, but the peak - season performance is not super - expected [46][48]. MEG - Bottle Chip - The inventory of ethylene glycol in East China ports decreased. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol and related products have changed. The market is currently in a state of limited drive, and the price is expected to oscillate [50][53]. PP - The futures price of polypropylene decreased. The supply has increased, and the demand has shown a recovery trend. The inventory has decreased. The market is affected by new device production and the uncertainty of demand [54][55]. PE - The futures price of polyethylene decreased. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased. The current demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly [56][57]. PVC - The production of PVC in August and September is estimated. The demand is weak, and the export has changed. The inventory is accumulating, and the price has returned to the industrial fundamentals [58][59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The prices of pure benzene and styrene futures decreased. The inventory of pure benzene and styrene in ports has increased. The supply and demand of both have changed, and the prices are expected to be volatile [60][61]. Fuel Oil - The price of fuel oil rebounded weakly. The supply and demand of fuel oil have changed. The export in August decreased, and the demand is mixed. The market is still under pressure [62][63]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The price of low - sulfur fuel oil is mainly following cost fluctuations. The supply and demand and inventory of low - sulfur fuel oil have changed. The valuation is low, and it is advisable to wait for long - allocation opportunities [64]. Asphalt - The price of asphalt rose. The supply and demand and inventory of asphalt have changed. The short - term peak season has no super - expected performance, and it mainly follows cost fluctuations [65][66]. Urea - The futures price of urea is in a stalemate. The spot price is stable, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased. It is advisable to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [67].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [12]. Core Views - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the upcoming domestic demand peak are expected to support the prices of precious metals, particularly gold and silver [4][5]. - It anticipates a strong demand season for copper and aluminum, with prices expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [5][9]. - The report notes that tin prices are likely to show resilience due to tight supply conditions, while antimony prices are under pressure from weak demand [10][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector (Shenwan) saw a 3.37% increase in the week from August 25 to August 29, outperforming the broader market [21]. - The top-performing sub-sectors included rare earths (+17.19%), tungsten (+14.70%), and silver (+12.45%) [21]. 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - China's industrial profits for July showed a year-on-year decline of 1.5%, an improvement from the previous month's decline of 4.3% [27]. - The U.S. second-quarter core PCE price index was reported at 2.5%, aligning with expectations, indicating stable inflation [27]. 3. Precious Metals Market Data - London gold prices rose to $3,429.15 per ounce, an increase of $90.85 (2.72%) from August 21 [30]. - Silver prices also increased to $38.80 per ounce, up $1.24 (3.29%) [30]. 4. Industrial Metals Data - Copper prices on the LME closed at $9,875 per ton, up $150 (1.54%) from August 22 [41]. - Aluminum prices in China were reported at 20,720 yuan per ton, a slight decrease of 30 yuan [42]. 5. Industry Ratings and Investment Strategies - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for gold, copper, aluminum, tin, and antimony sectors, reflecting a favorable investment outlook [12]. - Specific stocks recommended include Zijin Mining, Zhongjin Gold, and Huaxi Securities among others [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold prices are driven up by the strengthened expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks [3]. - Copper prices are in a state of multi - factor intersection and remain volatile. The upside is limited by weak demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors, while the support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid [15]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be oscillatingly strong in the short term, but there is pressure above. Breaking through the 21,000 pressure level requires the fulfillment of peak - season expectations, a significant improvement in demand, and inventory reduction [35]. - Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply in an oversupply state and the demand awaiting the performance of the "Golden September and Silver October" [63]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals [76]. - Tin prices have an upward driving force due to the tight supply, despite the demand pressure [93]. - Carbonate lithium futures are expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage, with attention paid to the environmental protection situation on the supply side and the continuation of downstream restocking [111]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September has been strengthened to 89%, which suppresses the US dollar and boosts the financial attribute of gold. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Eastern Europe increase the demand for hedging, and the continuous gold - buying trend of global central banks provides long - term support, jointly driving up the gold price [3]. - **Silver**: No specific daily - view analysis provided, mainly shows relevant price and inventory data [4][12]. Copper - **Price**: The latest price of Shanghai copper futures shows an increase, with the daily increase of the main contract being 0.47%. The price of LME copper 3M also increases by 0.68%. The support at 79,000 yuan/ton is solid, but the upside is limited by weak demand [15][16]. - **Supply - demand**: The spot premium increases with the price increase, and the refined - scrap price difference is close to a reasonable level. The demand in the automotive, home appliance, and real estate sectors is weak, and the supply may shrink after September due to Fed rate cuts and maintenance [15]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and domestic policies are beneficial to the price. The start - up rate of electrolytic aluminum has increased slightly, and the demand shows signs of recovery in the peak season, but the production and transportation control during the September parade may affect inventory reduction. The possible reduction in recycled aluminum supply supports the consumption of primary aluminum [35]. - **Alumina**: The supply of alumina is expected to be in a state of oversupply in the second half of the year, which suppresses the price. The environmental protection limit order for some alumina plants in Henan has only a short - term impact on production [36]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the cancellation of tax - return policies for some recycled aluminum enterprises may lead to a decline in the capacity utilization rate of waste - using enterprises, providing support for the price of aluminum alloy [37]. Zinc - **Supply**: The supply is in an oversupply state. The domestic zinc - ore price has an advantage, and the overseas zinc - ore supply is relatively loose. The increase in domestic processing fees in September may not be large, and the overseas refined - zinc increment is small [63]. - **Demand**: The demand is not significantly affected by the parade and remains stable. It is expected to improve during the "Golden September and Silver October", and there is a strong positive correlation with black varieties [63]. - **Inventory**: The LME inventory continues to decline, and the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic zinc prices is more obvious [63]. Nickel - **Market Trend**: The nickel and stainless - steel markets oscillated last week, with macro factors leading the market and little change in fundamentals. The support of nickel ore continues, and the upward space of nickel iron needs attention. The new - energy sector was relatively strong last week [76]. Tin - **Supply - demand**: Tin prices are rising due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to stop production for maintenance for 45 days starting from August 30. In August 2025, the output of refined tin decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly due to enterprise maintenance and the decrease in tin - concentrate imports in July [93]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Sentiment**: The sentiment in the futures market declined last week, and the spot - market trading volume decreased. The production - scheduling data of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises increased by 5% month - on - month this month, providing support for the peak - season expectation. The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and consolidating stage [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Industrial Silicon**: The downward space of industrial silicon is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term, with a relatively narrow price - fluctuation range [122]. - **Polysilicon**: Polysilicon futures are expected to be oscillatingly strong, supported by the improved fundamentals from industrial integration [123].