短期关注防御性板块配置机会，同时布局明年政策红利与产业景气方向。（1）主线一：全球百年未遇 之大变局加速演进，国内经济底层逻辑转向新质生产力，人工智能、具身智能、新能源、可控核聚变、 量子科技、航空航天等"十五五"重点领域值得关注。（2）主线二：反内卷政策温和推进，供需结构优 化叠加价格回升预期带动下，制造业、资源板块盈利修复路径清晰。（3）辅助线一：扩大内需政策导 向下消费板块迎来布局窗口。（4）辅助线二：出海趋势将带动企业盈利空间进一步打开。 ②光大证券：市场有望震荡上行，关注成长及消费两个方向 光大证券指出，历史来看，A股市场中几乎每年都存在"春季躁动"行情。本周三市场的强力上涨或许标 志着2026年跨年行情已经开启。一方面，政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯 实资本市场繁荣发展的基础。另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极 流入。政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有望积极流入，市场有望震荡上行。 A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么说。 沪指本周累计涨0.03%，深证成指累计跌0.89%，创业板指跌2.26%。A股后市怎么走？看看机构怎么 说： ①银河证券：市场进入跨 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 本周三大指数涨跌不一，上证指数涨0.03%，深证成指跌0.89%%，创业板指跌2.26%，后市将如何发 展？看看机构怎么说。 中信证券：推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，关注3大主线 推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 光大证券：春季行情哪些方向值得期待？2026年跨年行情已经开启，关注成长及消费板块 2026 年跨年行情已经开启，关注成长及消费两个方向政策有望持续发力，叠加各类资金有 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a significant rebound, driven by substantial inflows of medium to long-term capital, indicating a potential start of a bullish trend as of December 17, 2025 [2][4]. Market Performance - The A-share market saw a strong performance with a total of 2,977 stocks rising during the week, marking it as the best-performing week in December [5]. - The market indices showed a mixed performance, with most major indices rebounding after initial declines earlier in the week [8]. Capital Inflows - The A500 ETF has seen a remarkable increase in scale, reaching 245.935 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 32.7 billion yuan in the past week, accounting for nearly 70% of total net inflows into stock ETFs [2]. - The Huatai-PB A500 ETF has become the first ETF tracking this index to exceed 40 billion yuan in scale, indicating strong investor interest [2]. Policy and Economic Environment - Short-term policies are expected to remain supportive, with potential interest rate cuts and measures to boost consumption likely to be implemented [11]. - External risks are perceived to be limited, with stable Sino-U.S. relations and the Bank of Japan's recent interest rate hike contributing to a more favorable outlook [12]. Sector Focus - Analysts suggest focusing on growth and consumer sectors, as these areas are likely to benefit from supportive policies and have been relatively underperforming this year [16]. - The technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) sectors, along with advanced manufacturing, are highlighted for their potential during the upcoming "spring rally" [16]. Market Sentiment - Recent events have reduced external uncertainties, contributing to a warming market sentiment [9]. - However, caution is advised as some high-performing stocks have shown signs of volatility, indicating potential shifts in risk appetite among investors [17].

关于2026年的投资布局，郭琳表示，将重点关注科技、资源品、出口链及部分顺周期品种。具体而言，TMT领域聚焦有边 际变化且景气向好的环节，包括AI产业中的海外算力、国产算力及自主可控方向；资源品在2026年全球流动性宽松和国内"反 内卷"环境下，价格易涨难跌，且当前股票估值不高。 郭琳同时认为："2026年，A股与港股共同面临的风险主要包括估值修复节奏与盈利拐点的确认。外部地缘政治不确定性、 内需政策力度与持续性、部分行业'反内卷'政策的推行效果等，均需持续关注。尽管存在风险和不确定性，我们依然会寻找性 价比和相对确定性的资产进行布局。" 本报讯 （记者昌校宇）今年以来，A股市场表现积极，新质生产力相关板块领涨。一批新生代基金经理凭借对科技成长的 敏锐洞察和均衡配置能力开始崭露头角，景顺长城基金的基金经理郭琳便是其中一位。近日，郭琳分享了其投资思考。 回顾2025年以来的A股市场，郭琳表示，科技成长与传统经济板块显著分化，这背后是宏观环境、产业趋势、资金偏好等 多重因素共同作用的结果。她介绍称："实际操作中，产业趋势好、经营周期有拐点、成本又低往往难以兼得。更多时候是选 择优质资产，中长期赚取业绩、估值与分红 ...

Market Review - In the recent five trading days (December 12 to December 18), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 1.79% [5] - The trading volume decreased, with a total of 9.06 trillion yuan traded, resulting in an average daily trading volume of 1.81 trillion yuan, down by 491.08 billion yuan compared to the previous five trading days [9][22] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that from January to November, fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, with a marginal decline of 0.9 percentage points [26] - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) fell by 1.1% year-on-year, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9%, reflecting a slowdown in investment sentiment [26] - Real estate investment dropped by 15.9% year-on-year, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [26] Policy Focus - The central government's economic work meeting emphasized that expanding domestic demand will be the top priority for 2025, with a focus on service consumption in areas such as cultural tourism, elderly care, and childcare [32] - The government plans to optimize fiscal spending by increasing investment in people's livelihoods and enhancing monetary policy flexibility to support price recovery [32] Investment Strategy - The A-share market is expected to continue its oscillating trend, with a potential rebound as the market approaches the year-end and spring rally periods [33] - Key sectors to watch include: 1. TMT and robotics sectors due to ongoing AI capital expansion and domestic computing power substitution [34] 2. Power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors driven by high global energy storage demand [34] 3. Social services and resource sectors as policy adjustments focus on structural changes and "anti-involution" measures [34] Industry Performance - Among the major sectors, non-bank financials, transportation, and retail sectors showed the highest gains, while the real estate, power equipment, and comprehensive sectors experienced the largest declines [22]

Group 1: Profitability Insights - The ROE of the entire A-share market (excluding finance and oil) increased from 6.32% in mid-2025 to 6.37% by Q3 2025, primarily driven by improved sales net profit margins due to effective cost control[3] - Sales net profit margin rose from 4.65% to 4.69%, indicating effective cost management despite a decline in gross profit margin from 17.73% to 17.48%[13] - Asset turnover improved slightly from 56.21% to 56.37%, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency[28] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Among 17 industries, 10 are experiencing low capacity utilization and low capital expenditure/depreciation, indicating a poor current supply-demand balance but potential for future improvement[4] - Over two-thirds of industries have capacity utilization below historical medians, highlighting persistent demand weakness in the economy[41] Group 3: Valuation and Dividend Trends - In the past year, 24 out of 33 industries exhibited a trend of rising valuations and declining dividends, suggesting a marginal increase in market risk appetite[5] - The report identifies industries with high valuations and low dividends as needing caution, while those with low valuations and high dividends are seen as having better risk-reward profiles[53] Group 4: Dynamic Transmission of Profitability - Historical data shows that improvements in ROE and asset turnover typically lead capital expenditure by six months to a year, indicating a lag in investment response to profitability improvements[6] - Midstream manufacturing and upstream construction materials show a one-year lead of ROE over capital expenditure, while downstream goods show a six-month lead[64]

Group 1 - The article highlights the current asset allocation trends among high-net-worth individuals, focusing on four main areas: quantitative enhancement, science and technology innovation funds, all-weather strategies, and overseas assets [1][2][3][4][5] - Quantitative enhancement involves significant investments in small-cap stocks, with risks associated with size factors and non-linear factors [1][3] - Science and technology innovation funds face risks from domestic interest rate increases leading to style shifts and potential AI bubble bursts due to revised capital expenditure expectations in the U.S. [1][3] - All-weather strategies are at risk from rising interest rates causing losses in bond holdings and declining gold prices [1][3] - Overseas assets are influenced by the RMB exchange rate and U.S. AI developments [2][4] Group 2 - The article provides insights into the scale of various investment vehicles, noting that since September 2022, the total margin financing balance has increased by 1.1 trillion, primarily directed towards the TMT sector [3][21] - By the end of 2024, the total scale of private equity funds is projected to reach 5.21 trillion, with a significant increase of 1.8 trillion observed this year [3][21] - The total scale of ETFs is expected to surge from approximately 3.73 trillion at the beginning of 2025 to 5.74 trillion, marking a growth of over 2 trillion and a growth rate exceeding 53% [3][21] - The A500 ETF has seen a net inflow of 255 billion in the past week and 367 billion in the past month, indicating strong market interest [3][21] Group 3 - The performance of investment vehicles shows that quantitative private equity funds have achieved over 40% returns this year, marking the third consecutive year of outperforming subjective strategies [8][26] - Mixed equity funds have recorded a 32% return this year, rebounding after three years of underperformance [8][26] - Broad market indices have generally yielded returns above 20%, with the A500 ETF at 22% and the CSI 300 ETF at 18% [8][27] Group 4 - The global fund manager survey indicates a peak in macro optimism since August 2021, with the stock and commodity allocation ratio reaching its highest since February 2022 [9][27] - Cash levels among fund managers have dropped to a historical low of 3.3%, down from 3.7% [9][27] - The survey also reveals that 37% of managers view the AI bubble as the biggest tail risk, while 40% believe private credit is the most likely source of credit events [12][30] Group 5 - The article raises questions about whether the trends observed in 2024 can be extrapolated into 2025, particularly regarding crowded positions and potential trend reversals [15][34] - It discusses the implications of rising interest rates on real estate and the effectiveness of macro hedging as a strategy for style switching [15][34] - The narrative suggests that the current market dynamics, influenced by a weak dollar and AI industry expansion, have led to an "asset shortage" and "capital bull" scenario [15][33]

- The report primarily focuses on analyzing the investment system and representative products of Liu Yuanhai from Dongwu Fund, providing research references for FOF investors[1][6] - Liu Yuanhai's investment system emphasizes industry trend-driven investment, closely tracking technological innovation and industry penetration changes, and mainly participating in the growth stage of industries[8] - The Dongwu Mobile Internet A fund (001323) is a flexible allocation fund focusing on the mobile internet theme, with significant long-term performance outperforming the CSI 300 Index[12][13] - The fund's performance attribution analysis using the Fama-French five-factor model shows that its returns are mainly derived from market factor exposure and significant alpha, while value and investment factors contribute negatively[34][37] - The fund maintains a high equity position and high stock concentration, reflecting the fund manager's confidence in core holdings[42][43] - The fund's heavy positions are mainly in the TMT sector, with significant contributions from leading stocks in sub-sectors, although this also brings certain volatility risks[47][52][53]

I’m a retired Wall Street PM specializing in TMT; since kickstarting my career, I’ve spent over two decades in the market navigating the technology landscape, focusing on risk mitigation through the dot com bubble, credit default of ‘08, and, more recently, with the AI boom. In one word, what I’d like my service to revolve around is momentum.Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the ...

Q&A 美联储年内第三次降息！影响多大 20251216 摘要 美联储下半年降息，主要受贸易战缓和及就业市场走弱影响，预计 2026 年降息次数有限，需密切关注美国就业数据，新任美联储主席政 策倾向存在不确定性。 美联储降息通过增加全球流动性、削弱美元吸引力及提振中国出口等多 重路径利好 A 股，尤其是在美国制造业周期回升的背景下，中国出口有 望进一步增长。 美元走弱引发全球资产价格波动，以美元计价的大宗商品如石油价格受 到影响，利率敏感型资产如黄金、白银表现强劲，伦敦金接近历史高点。 2025 年全球股市普遍表现强劲，主要原因包括美联储降息和美元走弱， 特朗普政府希望通过弱势美元促进出口和制造业就业，提升风险偏好。 2026 年科技板块预计仍是市场主线，高端制造业是经济增长的重要手 段，人工智能等新技术提高劳动生产率，国家战略和政策支持力度大。 2025 年资本市场反转得益于财政政策，经济温度逐步升高，但速度较 慢，更多是基于前几年被极度低估资产的大幅修正，如创新药、新能源 及 AI 领域。 TMT 和电子行业是少数具有盈利增速的领域，投资者应关注能够创造回 报的公司，科技板块依然值得关注，年底可适当降低科 ...