Report Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silver: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Viewpoints - The dollar credit crisis and the uncertainty of the global political and economic situation support the long - term upward trend of the center of gold prices. This week, with the release of important economic data such as non - farm payrolls in the US, precious metals may maintain sharp fluctuations, and position control and light - participation are needed before the holiday. Tonight, attention should be paid to US ADP employment, PCE, and first - quarter GDP data [1] Other Key Points Tariff - related - Trump relaxed the auto tariff policy to relieve the impact on local automakers. The US Commerce Secretary reached a trade agreement with an anonymous country. Trump plans to use AI chips as a new bargaining chip in trade negotiations. The US said Europe did not participate well in tariff issues. Walmart notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipments. The White House criticized Amazon for showing tariff prices, calling it a "hostile political act" [2] Ukraine - related - The US Secretary of State requires Ukraine to provide specific proposals and will withdraw from mediation if there is no progress. Putin is reported to have requested control of 4 regions in Ukraine during talks with the US [2] US Economic Data - The number of job openings in the US in March dropped to the lowest level since September last year. The US Conference Board consumer confidence in April plunged to a nearly five - year low. The US merchandise trade deficit in March widened to a record $162 billion [2]

来源：银河期货 作者：银河期货 研报正文 第一部分 前言概要 【行情回顾】 4月，贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司，月涨幅7%；伦敦银受到黄金的托举 回到近期高位、但未能突破34.5附近的阻力，月跌幅2%。沪金触及836.3元/克的历史高点，月涨幅9%。沪银相对疲 软，月跌幅2.4%。 【市场展望】 往后看，各经济体对于关税的博弈仍有不断反复的可能，关税政策进展和美国经济基本面间的演绎节奏具有高度的 不确定性，预期和现实间的差距将成为贵金属价格波动的放大器，而黄金作为对冲滞涨风险的优质资产、且贵金属 当前牛市的趋势并未被打破，可仍以低多思路为主。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：延续低多思路。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：领式看涨期权。 风险提示：央行购金不及预期，关税谈判进展超预期、美国经济韧性超预期、光伏需求不及预期。 第二部分 行情复盘与前瞻 一、行情回顾 4月，贵金属表现依旧受到市场瞩目。伦敦金从3122美元启动，中间受到流动性的拖累出现回调，而后开启快速拉 涨的走势，一度上触历史新高3500.12美元/盎司，月涨幅7%；伦敦银月初的回调更深，此后受到黄金的托举回到近 期 ...

Group 1 - The gold market showed fluctuations with Au99.95 opening at 822.6 and closing at 826.2, reflecting a price increase of 22.5 yuan or 2.8% [2] - Au100g experienced a rise in price, opening at 808.0 and closing at 830.1, marking an increase of 25.5 yuan or 3.1% [2] - The trading volume for Au99.95 was 29, with a total transaction amount of 24,372,580 yuan [2] Group 2 - Au(T+D) opened at 805.5 and closed at 826.6, with a price increase of 27.0 yuan or 3.3% [3] - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was 12,446, with a total transaction amount of 10,246,066,860 yuan [3] - The market position for Au(T+D) was reported at 22,531 [3] Group 3 - The platinum market (Pt99.95) opened at 235.4 and closed at 236.4, showing no change in price [4] - The trading volume for Pt99.95 was recorded at 1, with a total transaction amount of 16,784,364 yuan [4] - The silver market (Ag(T+D)) opened at 8244.0 and closed at 8154.0, reflecting a decrease of 4 yuan [4] Group 4 - The market for NYAuTN06 opened at 813.1 and closed at 821.3, with a price increase of 22.8 yuan or 2.8% [4] - The trading volume for NYAuTN06 was 79, with a total transaction amount of 6,491,205 yuan [4] - The market position for NYAuTN06 was reported at 383 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential import tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump, leading to a surge in copper prices and increased activity in the non-ferrous metal sector [9][11]. Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Activity - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising for three consecutive trading days. Notably, Northern Copper Industry Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000737) reached a limit-up price, achieving a three-day gain of two limit-ups [3][5]. - Other companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Fuda Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603045), Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603527), and Xinjiang Alloy Investment Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000633), also experienced limit-up trading [5][7]. Copper Price Dynamics - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high of $5.3740 per pound, surpassing the previous record of $5.199 per pound set on May 20 of the previous year, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [9][11]. - Market analysts suggest that while short-term copper prices are influenced by tariff expectations, the medium-term outlook will depend on supply and demand dynamics. Currently, the international copper market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with no significant increase in demand from China [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures anticipate that copper supply constraints will persist, with marginal demand recovery providing support for copper prices. They expect copper prices to exhibit a strong oscillating trend in the medium to long term [11][12]. - The long-term demand for copper is projected to be driven by growth in the power and electric vehicle sectors, indicating that while significant price increases may be limited, copper prices are likely to remain at elevated levels [11][12].