Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Glass: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious. The market will gradually turn into a weak shock later, and the medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals and peak - season expectations boosted the rebound, but now weak basis, delivery factors, and high inventory lead to a market decline. With a relatively large basis and excessive premium of the forward 01 contract, short - chasing should be careful [2]. -纯碱: Short - term short - chasing should be cautious, but the downward pressure is not over. In the futures market, the previous crowded shorts led to a short - covering stampede. The increase in the futures market drove spot purchases, reducing inventory and raising prices. The strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price, and the delivery pressure on the 08 and 09 contracts is expected to be large. The future trend depends on the basis regression and the supply - side response [3]. Summary by Related Directory Glass Supply - As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 222 in production and 74 cold - repaired and shut down. The daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, a 0.38% increase from the 24th. The daily loss of float glass was 40,450 tons, a 1.46% decrease from the previous period, and the weekly loss was 284,950 tons, a 2.43% decrease from the previous period [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines was 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines was 11,510 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines had a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 had a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines had a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8][10][12]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. Short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Demand - As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, a 2.7% increase from the previous period and a 1.55% decrease from the same period last year. The deep - processing profits are still low, and the increase in the inventory days of reserved raw glass is higher than the increase in orders [2]. Inventory - As of July 31, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 59.499 million heavy cases, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy cases from the previous period, a 3.87% decrease from the previous period and a 13.88% decrease from the same period last year. The inventory days were 25.5 days, 1.1 days less than the previous period. The inventory in different regions decreased to varying degrees, but the decline rate slowed down due to the decrease in spot trading [2][35]. Price and Profit - The market price declined slightly this week, while the ex - factory price changed little. The price in Shahe was about 1,260 - 1,310 yuan/ton, in central China's Hubei region it was about 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, and in some large factories in the eastern Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions it was about 1,320 - 1,400 yuan/ton [18][22]. - The futures rebounded, the basis strengthened, and the month - spread was still weak. The profit with petroleum coke as fuel was about 137 yuan/ton, and the profits with natural gas and coal as fuel were about - 150 and 138 yuan/ton respectively [24][27]. Photovoltaic Glass Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market had good transactions, and the inventory continued to decline. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels was 10 - 11 yuan/square meter, and the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated was 18 - 19 yuan/square meter, both unchanged from the previous week [44][46]. Capacity and Inventory - Affected by the anti - involution policy, the recent supply decreased, the trading improved, and the inventory declined. As of early August, there were 408 national photovoltaic glass production lines in production, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, a 1.33% decrease from the previous period and an 18.57% decrease from the same period last year. The sample inventory days were about 29.31 days, a 10.06% decrease from the previous period [47][48][52]. Soda Ash Supply and Maintenance - Soda ash enterprises had more device reductions, and the comprehensive supply decreased. The domestic soda ash output this period was 699,800 tons, a 3.32% decrease from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from last week. Some enterprises were under maintenance or had reduced production loads, and there were also some planned maintenance and resumptions in the future [3][56]. - The current capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 80.27%, and the weekly output of heavy soda has reached 398,700 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers need to increase production reduction efforts, or the real - estate industry chain needs to continue to recover to drive the recovery of glass demand and inventory [58][59]. Price and Profit - The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei were about 1,300 - 1,450 yuan/ton. The manufacturer's price changed little, while the quotes of futures - spot merchants decreased. The basis and month - spread: due to high production and high inventory, the near - month contracts were under pressure, but attention should be paid to the market potentially turning to positive spreads during the peak position - shifting period [69][72][74]. - The joint - soda production profit in East China (excluding Shandong) was 106 yuan/ton, and the ammonia - soda production profit in North China was 57 yuan/ton [77]. Inventory - The inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7958 million tons, a 3.69% decrease from the previous period and a 67.08% increase from the same period last year. A large amount of inventory was transferred to the delivery warehouse [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Mid - to long - term: After continuous increases due to policy speculation, black - series commodities mainly showed a volatile correction this week. Market sentiment cooled, and the market logic gradually returned to fundamentals. For steel mills, the profitability rate continued to increase, daily hot metal output continued to decline, and overseas ore shipments rebounded. For glass, the start - up rate was flat with last week, and in - plant inventory continued to decline, but the fundamental changes were limited. For soda ash, production decreased month - on - month, but the oversupply situation continued, and the supply - demand fundamentals were poor, with recent fluctuations mainly following the chemical sector. Attention should be paid to the release and implementation of relevant policies [51][55]. - Short - term: The main contracts of black - series commodities had sharp price fluctuations recently, and it was recommended to operate with caution and light positions. The main contracts of glass and soda ash closed significantly lower this week, and short - term cautious observation was recommended [52][56]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Black - Series Weekly Market Review | Variety | Futures Closing Price Change | Futures Price Change Rate | Spot Price | Basis (Unconverted) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar (RB2510) | - 89 (from 3294 to 3205) | - 2.70% | 3370 | 165 | | Hot - Rolled Coil (HC2510) | - 66 (from 3456 to 3390) | - 1.91% | 3410 | 20 | | Iron Ore (I2509) | - 32 (from 811 to 779) | - 3.95% | 779 | 0 | | Coke (J2509) | - 134 (from 1735 to 1601) | - 7.72% | 1520 | - 81 | | Coking Coal (JM2509) | - 153 (from 1199 to 1046) | - 12.77% | 1250 | 205 | | Glass (FG509) | - 190 (from 1307 to 1117) | - 14.54% | 1320 | 203 | | Soda Ash (SA509) | - 161 (from 1408 to 1247) | - 11.43% | 1359 | 112 | [3] 3.2 Rebar - Profit: On July 31, the blast - furnace profit of rebar was 227 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton compared to July 24 [7]. - Supply: As of August 1, the blast - furnace start - up rate was 83.46% (unchanged), the electric - furnace start - up rate was 62.82% (+0.64), daily hot metal output was 240.71 tons (- 1.52), and rebar production was 2.1106 million tons (- 0.9) [12]. - Demand: In the week of August 1, the apparent consumption of rebar was 2.0341 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 131,700 tons; the trading volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 78,119 tons [16]. - Inventory: In the week of August 1, the social inventory of rebar was 3.8414 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 111,700 tons; the in - plant inventory was 1.6215 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 35,200 tons [20]. 3.3 Float Glass - Supply: As of August 1, the number of float - glass production lines in operation was 222 (unchanged from last week), weekly output was 1,115,225 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7050 tons). As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate was 79.78% (a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points), and the start - up rate was 75% (unchanged from last week) [25]. - Inventory: On August 1, the in - plant inventory of float glass was 59.499 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million weight boxes compared to July 25; the available days of in - plant inventory were 25.5 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 days [30]. - Demand: As of July 31, the order days of glass deep - processing downstream manufacturers were 9.55 days, an increase of 0.25 days compared to July 15 [34]. 3.4 Soda Ash - Supply: In the week of August 1, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to last week; production was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons compared to last week [39]. - Inventory: As of August 1, the in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons compared to July 25 [44]. - Production and Sales Rate: As of August 1, the production - sales rate of soda ash was 109.83%, an increase of 4.17 percentage points compared to July 25 [48].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 8 月 1 日 油） 021-60635738 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-606355 ...

Group 1: Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - Yesterday, the glass futures market dropped significantly, with the main 2509 contract of glass futures falling 8.22%. The operating rate of float glass enterprises this week was 75%, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the manufacturer's inventory was 59.499 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 2.397 million heavy boxes from the previous week. Currently, glass supply shows no sign of contraction, and the real - estate sector drags down the rigid demand, while speculative demand has increased. The inventory has been continuously decreasing but remains at a high level. In the long run, the glass supply - demand situation remains relatively loose [1]. - The soda ash futures market also dropped significantly yesterday, with the main 2509 contract of soda ash futures falling 6.45%. The capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 80.27%, a 2.75% decrease from the previous week, the output was 699,800 tons, a decrease of 24,000 tons from the previous week, and the inventory was 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 68,800 tons from the previous week. Currently, soda ash production remains at a high level and is in the summer maintenance stage, with relatively restrained capacity release. Later, as projects are gradually implemented, the soda ash capacity may be further released. Meanwhile, due to the "anti - involution" impact in the photovoltaic industry, there is an expectation of production cuts, and soda ash consumption may further weaken, increasing the inventory pressure later [1]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the collective sharp decline of black commodities drove the ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures to hit the daily limit. The main contract of silicomanganese futures dropped 170 yuan/ton from the previous day, closing at 5946 yuan/ton. In the spot market, there was a strong wait - and - see sentiment. The price of 6517 silicomanganese in the northern market was 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton, and in the southern market, it was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. Silicomanganese production increased month - on - month, hot metal production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the inventory of silicomanganese manufacturers decreased slightly month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The shipping from Australia in the manganese ore segment has basically recovered. After the silicomanganese price was boosted by macro - sentiment, the hedging willingness of enterprises increased, but with the decline of coking coal and coke futures, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent [3]. - Yesterday, the main contract of ferrosilicon futures closed at 5696 yuan/ton, a drop of 312 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the spot market, the price remained stable, and the cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5600 - 5800 yuan/ton. The demand for ferrosilicon remained resilient, and the factory inventory was at a medium - to - high level. In the short term, the market sentiment improved, but with the sharp decline of coking coal, the market sentiment cooled down to some extent. In the long run, the ferrosilicon capacity is relatively loose [3]. Group 2: Strategy Glass and Soda Ash - The strategy for glass is to be weakly volatile [2]. - The strategy for soda ash is to be weakly volatile [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - The strategy for silicomanganese is to be weakly volatile [4]. - The strategy for ferrosilicon is to be weakly volatile [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The A-share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. Short-term risk of a pullback after a sharp rise should be vigilant, while the entry of insurance funds in the medium to long term is expected to enhance market stability. [2] - The WTI crude oil main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound, with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. The overall medium to long-term price center of crude oil is moving down. [3] - Gold prices have dropped to a three - week low. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce, and the potential boost to risk aversion sentiment from core PCE data and Sino - US trade negotiations should be monitored. [4][5] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level for silver, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] - Most chemical products such as PTA, ethylene glycol, PVC, PP, plastic, etc. are expected to have short - term volatile operations, with attention to relevant influencing factors such as cost, policy, and market sentiment. [7][8][10][11] - For agricultural products, corn, peanut, and cotton futures prices are expected to be weak in the short term, while egg prices have limited downward space, and soybean meal may have a wide - range shock, and soybean oil may be strong in the short term. [18][19][20][21][25][26] - For metals, most metal products such as copper, aluminum, etc. have complex market situations, and different trading strategies are recommended according to different varieties. [27][28] - For black commodities, stainless steel may have a short - term correction, while hot - rolled coils, rebar, and iron ore may have short - term volatile operations, and coking coal and coke may be strong in the short term. [33][34][35][37][39] Summary by Directory Macro - The Politburo meeting released multiple signals, including activating the capital market, expanding domestic demand, and supporting innovation. The long - cycle assessment mechanism for insurance funds has been implemented, and the proportion of equity investment is expected to increase. The lithium - battery industry's "anti - involution" policy is deepening. [2] - The A - share market shows a differentiated market sentiment and sector performance, with technology sectors leading the rise and cyclical products leading the decline. [2] Crude Oil - Summer demand supports oil prices, but OPEC's production increase plan, Fed meetings, and trade negotiations bring instability. The WTI main contract is expected to have a volatile rebound with support around $63 - $65 per barrel. [3] - The IEA has raised the global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 to 2.1 million barrels per day, and OPEC + may increase production in July and August, leading to a relatively weak oil price in the medium to long term. [3] Gold - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and Powell's hawkish remarks reduced the probability of a September rate cut, pushing up the dollar index and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds, increasing the opportunity cost of holding gold. [4] - Gold prices dropped to a three - week low, but institutional willingness to buy on dips still exists. Short - term attention should be paid to the key support level of $3300 per ounce and relevant influencing factors. [4][5] Silver - The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged, and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, suppressing the attractiveness of silver as a non - income asset. Trump's tariff on semi - finished copper indirectly dragged down silver. [6] - After the technical breakdown of the $37.5 support level, there is a tug - of - war around $37. If it breaks below $36.7, it may decline to the $36.3 - $36.5 range. [6] Chemical - **PTA**: The spot price decreased, the processing fee was at a low level, the overall supply was strong and the demand was weak, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation. [7] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The supply became more relaxed, the inventory was at a low level, and it was expected to have a short - term volatile operation, with attention to macro - policies. [8] - **PVC**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand improved slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve significantly, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [10] - **PP**: The supply decreased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory increased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [11] - **Plastic**: The supply increased slightly, the demand decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the fundamentals did not improve, with short - term fluctuations following market sentiment. [12] - **Soda Ash**: The supply decreased, the demand increased, the inventory decreased, the fundamentals had limited driving force, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [13] - **Glass**: The supply fluctuated slightly, the demand weakened, the inventory decreased, the supply - demand change was limited, and short - term rational operation was recommended. [14] - **Methanol**: The supply increased, the demand had contradictions, the inventory increased, the cost had support but the profit was difficult to sustain, and the futures price was expected to be weak in the short term. [17] Agricultural Products - **Corn**: The global and US yields are at high levels, but the ending inventory has decreased. The domestic market is in a state of alternating old and new grains, and the demand is weak. The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term. [18][19] - **Peanut**: The estimated planting area is expected to increase. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, and the futures price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short term. [20] - **Cotton**: The global and US cotton production and ending inventory are expected to increase. The domestic supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is weak. The cotton price is expected to be weak in the short term. [21] - **Pig**: The supply pressure is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may oscillate in the short term. [22] - **Egg**: The production capacity is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the futures price has limited downward space. [24] - **Soybean Meal**: The international price is driven by tariffs and weather. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak, and the futures price may have a wide - range shock in the short term. [25] - **Soybean Oil**: The international market focuses on weather. The domestic supply pressure is large, and the futures price may be strong in the short term. [26] Metals - **Copper**: The US copper tariff event led to a decline in US copper prices. The domestic support policies are strong, and the copper market has complex game situations. [27] - **Aluminum**: The Fed maintained interest rates, the supply is close to the ceiling, the demand is in the off - season, and the price may be weak in the short term. [28] - **Alumina**: The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait for macro - guidance. [29] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost provides support, the supply is excessive, the demand is in the off - season, and it is expected to follow the aluminum price and oscillate. [30] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The cost support is weakening, the supply is stable, the demand is in the off - season, and the price fluctuates greatly due to market sentiment. [31] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is expected to decline, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [32] - **Polysilicon**: The supply has increased, the demand is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level. [33] Black - **Stainless Steel**: The cost support is weakening, the supply may decrease, the demand is in the off - season, and it may have a short - term correction. [34] - **Rebar**: The "anti - involution" policy is being implemented, the cost support is weakening, the demand has a slight recovery, and it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [35] - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: Similar to rebar, it may oscillate at a high level in the short term. [36] - **Iron Ore**: The supply has increased, the demand is supported, the inventory is at a low level, and it may oscillate in the short term. [37][38] - **Coal**: Coking coal supply may shrink, and coke prices may be strong due to cost and demand, but relevant risks need to be monitored. [39]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand, and the sentiment of policy benefits has subsided. In the short term, it is expected to mainly move in a volatile manner [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The "anti-involution" sentiment has subsided. There are few maintenance works in soda ash plants, and the supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has dropped significantly, resulting in weakened terminal demand. The inventory in soda ash plants is at a historical high. Overall, it is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,250 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2509 is 1,247 yuan/ton, with a basis of 3 yuan. The futures are at a discount to the spot, showing a neutral situation [2]. - **Inventory**: The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average, which is bearish [2][33]. - **Market**: The price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Given the supply-demand imbalance in the soda ash market and the fading policy benefits, the short-term trend is expected to be volatile [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance season in summer is approaching, which will lead to a decline in production [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production volume is at a historical high. The production of photovoltaic glass, a major downstream product of heavy soda ash, has decreased, weakening the demand for soda ash. The sentiment of the "anti-involution" policy has subsided [5]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Session | Closing Price of Main Contract | Lowest Price of Heavy Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous | 1,311 yuan/ton | 1,300 yuan/ton | -11 yuan/ton | | Current | 1,247 yuan/ton | 1,250 yuan/ton | 3 yuan/ton | | Change | -4.88% | -3.85% | -127.27% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia-alkali method is -87 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co-production method is -50.50 yuan/ton. The production profit is recovering from a historical low [15]. - **Operating rate and production volume**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 83.02%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly production volume is 723,800 tons, including 408,900 tons of heavy soda ash, which is at a historical high [18][20]. - **Capacity changes**: In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Production and sales rate**: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 105.66% [24]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,000 tons, and the operating rate is stable at 75.10%. The price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling. Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the daily melting volume in operation has dropped significantly [27][30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in-plant inventory of soda ash is 1.7958 million tons, a decrease of 3.69% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5-year average [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply and Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply and demand balance sheets of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, production volume, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply-demand gap, and growth rates [34].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3 in July, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index dropping to 49.4, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slowdown in market demand [1] - The National Council meeting approved policies to implement personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry loan interest subsidies as part of the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative [1] Group 2: Stock Market Insights - The three major U.S. stock indices declined, with significant pullbacks in the steel and non-ferrous metal sectors, while the computer and communication sectors saw gains, with a market turnover of 1.96 trillion yuan [2][8] - The financing balance increased by 2.174 billion yuan to 1.970595 trillion yuan on July 30, indicating a growing interest in long-term capital allocation in the current low-risk interest rate environment [2][8] - The A-share market is viewed as having high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from technology innovation policies [2][8] Group 3: Commodity Market Analysis - Glass futures continued to decline, with production enterprise inventories at 51.78 million heavy boxes, down 1.56 million boxes week-on-week, indicating a supply contraction and improved market expectations [3][13] - The pure soda ash futures also saw a decline, with inventories at 1.684 million tons, down 104,000 tons week-on-week, suggesting a similar trend of inventory digestion in the market [3][13] Group 4: Precious Metals - Gold prices experienced a rebound after a dip, while silver continued to decline, influenced by a divided stance within the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate decisions [4][15] - The U.S. economic data showed resilience, with a rebound in CPI, and ongoing pressure from former President Trump on the Fed to lower interest rates, contributing to the volatility in precious metals [4][15] Group 5: Industry News - In the first half of the year, China's renewable energy installed capacity increased by 268 million kilowatts, a year-on-year growth of 99.3%, accounting for 91.5% of the new installed capacity [7] - The new energy storage installed capacity reached 94.91 million kilowatts, showing a growth of approximately 29% compared to the end of 2024 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the supply is expected to remain ample, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face continuous pressure. It's recommended to short the soda ash main contract on rallies, and the current decline might not end [2]. - For glass, the probability of a correction has increased, but the decline is expected to be limited. It's also recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main - contract closing price is 1,247 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan; glass main - contract closing price is 1,117 yuan/ton, down 74 yuan [2]. - Soda ash main - contract trading volume is 974,024 lots, down 109,991 lots; glass main - contract trading volume is 142,138 lots [2]. - Soda ash top 20 net long position is - 344,377 lots, down 14,009 lots; glass top 20 net long position is - 215,547 lots, down 19,125 lots [2]. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 1,500 tons, up 145 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts are 0 tons [2]. - Soda ash September - January contract spread is - 83 yuan, up 6 yuan; glass September - January contract spread is - 129 yuan, down 4 yuan [2]. - Soda ash basis is - 11 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; glass basis is 1 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash is 1,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - East China light soda ash is 1,325 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash is 1,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Shahe glass sheets are 1,192 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China glass sheets are 1,230 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate is 83.02%, down 1.08 percentage points; float - glass enterprise operating rate is 75%, down 0.34 percentage points [2]. - Glass in - production capacity is 15.89 million tons/year, up 0.11 million tons; glass in - production line number is 223, unchanged [2]. - Soda ash enterprise inventory is 1.7836 million tons, down 81,000 tons; glass enterprise inventory is 61.896 million weight boxes, down 3.043 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real - estate new construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; cumulative real - estate completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Multiple important meetings and events took place, including the Politburo meeting, the meeting between Wang Yi and the US - China Business Council delegation, etc. Also, the central government will set up a "child - rearing subsidy fund" with a preliminary budget of about 90 billion yuan this year [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. The decline is not over, and it's recommended to short on rallies [2]. - Glass: Supply shows signs of rigid production, and the industry profit has improved. However, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, and the probability of a correction has increased. It's recommended to short on rallies, but the decline amplitude is expected to be limited [2].

Core Viewpoint - The commodity market sentiment has significantly declined, with major declines observed in various popular products, particularly in the black series and photovoltaic industry chain products [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - On July 31, domestic futures opened lower, with many popular products experiencing declines exceeding 5%, including焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and 纯碱 (soda ash) [1][2]. - The 文华商品指数 (Wenhua Commodity Index) fell nearly 1.5% in the morning session, with significant drops in焦煤 (coking coal), 玻璃 (glass), and other black series products [2]. - By the afternoon, the index dropped over 2%, with glass and silicon iron hitting their daily limit down [2]. Group 2: Black Series Products -焦煤 (coking coal) saw its main contract hit the limit down, closing at 1045.5 yuan/ton, while other black series products like焦炭 (coke) and螺纹钢 (rebar) also experienced significant declines of 4.93% and 4.19%, respectively [2]. - The supply side for焦煤 (coking coal) is stabilizing, with upstream coal mine inventories returning to reasonable levels and production recovering [3]. Group 3: Photovoltaic Industry Chain - The three major products in the photovoltaic industry chain, including碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate), 工业硅 (industrial silicon), and 多晶硅 (polysilicon), experienced deep corrections, with declines of 6% and more [4]. - By the end of trading,多晶硅 (polysilicon) fell 7.81% to 49,130 yuan/ton, while industrial silicon and lithium carbonate also saw significant drops [4]. - The overall production of多晶硅 (polysilicon) is expected to approach 110,000 tons, with a significant increase anticipated in August [4]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The recent decline in market sentiment is attributed to the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic factors, with investors awaiting further policy guidance [2][5]. - The market is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations, with cautious trading strategies recommended for多晶硅 (polysilicon) and碳酸锂 (lithium carbonate) due to ongoing pressures in the supply-demand balance [5][6]. - Regulatory measures have been implemented to limit speculative trading in industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, which may help mitigate market risks [5][6].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for the chemical sector is predominantly bearish, with soda ash futures experiencing a significant decline, reaching a low of 1249.00 yuan/ton and a drop of approximately 5.10% [1] - The current market sentiment for soda ash is influenced by macroeconomic factors, leading to potential volatility in the short term, while the fundamental outlook remains bearish due to high supply and weak demand [1] - The industry is facing challenges such as increased supply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, which are unlikely to improve in the short term, suggesting a likely medium to long-term price fluctuation [2] Group 2 - The soda ash market is affected by ongoing production costs, with expectations of a decrease in costs by the end of 2024, while raw salt and thermal coal prices remain high, providing some support near the cost line [2] - The supply side is characterized by narrow fluctuations, with ongoing maintenance expected to impact production, while the demand for heavy soda ash is decreasing due to losses in the photovoltaic glass sector [1][2] - The market requires close monitoring of raw material price fluctuations and the implementation of policies aimed at eliminating outdated production capacity, which will affect supply adjustments and inventory digestion [1]