大摩闭门会：邢自强、Laura Wang：风云变幻的 26 年市场 260202 发言人 00:00 黄金这个行业分析的张雷，以及今天也在线的我们的经济学家蔡志鹏。我们在一月初参加的摩根斯 standing 的人民币基金的一场讨论的年会上也提出过，2026 年的宏观和市场必定毕竟会是波涛汹涌 的一年。我想上周就经历了这过山车一般的变化。 发言人 00:24 发言人 04:11 调整的越剧烈，比如说贵金属市场基本上是一个史诗级的震荡。黄金价格在 48 小时之内从接近 5600 块钱美元跌到了 4690 块钱美元，跌幅累计高达 16%。而且黄金在这段时间的波动率飙升到 44 以上， 这仅仅在 2020 年的三月全球疫情期间出现过更高的水平，创下了一个历史纪录。在这个过程中美元也 反弹了，美元指数大幅反弹了单日的 0.8%。 发言人 03:13 那么美元对日元就呈现出像去年 4 月份，美国提出关税战的解放日之后的这种过山车式的行情。在短短 一两周之内，从跌破了 150 美元，日元汇率反弹到 154 的上方。这些背后都反映了似乎它对边际流动 性预期敏感性，贵金属是最敏感的。 发言人 03:36 其次汇率市场在最后到一 ...

Group 1 - The Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a broad rise on February 3, with the South Korean Composite Stock Price Index triggering a circuit breaker after a significant drop of over 5% the previous day [1] - As of 9:37 AM, the Nikkei 225 index rose by over 3%, and the South Korean Composite Index increased by 4.9%, with notable gains in stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics [1] Group 2 - The A-share market opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.66%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.23%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.44% as of 9:37 AM [2] - The non-ferrous metal sector showed mixed performance, with industrial and small metals rebounding while precious metals saw significant declines, leading to stocks like Hunan Silver and Zhaojin Gold hitting the daily limit down [2] - Spot gold and silver prices rebounded sharply, with spot gold breaking the $4,800 per ounce mark during the session [2]

近日，国际黄金与白银市场经历罕见巨幅下挫，美国科技股亦同步大幅下跌。2月2日，亚洲 股市普遍承压，国内商品期货市场多数品种走低，其中沪银、广期所铂金和钯金跌停，沪金 一度触及跌停板。 全球市场为何如此青睐黄金？这一问题并非新近出现。过去几年，作为黄金的主要购买方， 各国央行持续推进外汇储备多元化，黄金已成为分散美元风险的重要避险资产与国家储备工 具。因此，黄金价格背后的核心驱动实为"去美元化"逻辑——无论是出于对美元资产安全性 的担忧，还是基于美国债务问题对美元信用的忧虑，黄金均被视为具有历史意义的对冲工 具。 在各国央行长期、持续增持的支撑下，黄金的安全边际得到强化。与此同时，美国在美元信 用、利率政策及地缘政治等方面日益凸显的不确定性，似乎正推动黄金进入一个历史性的上 涨周期。正是基于这一叙事与判断，市场资金逐渐将原本作为避险资产的黄金（无息资产） 重新定位为风险资产。在当前美股、美债等资产已处于高位、增长空间受限的背景下，在有 限的资产选择范围内，黄金与白银被视为最能捕捉货币贬值、再通胀以及地缘政治冲突情绪 的交易标的。 美国因过去长期使用过度宽松的货币与财政政策，导致该国宏观风险不断累积，已濒临临界 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The current market decline is primarily attributed to the drop in gold and silver prices, raising concerns about liquidity issues within the financial system [1] - There are indications that gold and silver may show signs of stabilization, which would significantly improve market liquidity expectations [1] - Major indices such as FTSE A50, Hang Seng Index futures, and Nasdaq 100 futures have rebounded recently [1] Key Points - Short-term market adjustments caused by liquidity shocks are expected to recover quickly [1] - Attention is shifting towards the upcoming earnings season in the US stock market, with companies like Palantir, NXP Semiconductors, and Teradyne set to report earnings [1] - A risk warning is issued regarding the potential underperformance of AI sector expectations [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a significant pullback, with the Wind All A index declining by 2.71% and a trading volume of 2.61 trillion yuan [10] - The non-ferrous metals sector led the decline, with the CSI 1000 index down 3.39%, the CSI 500 index down 3.98%, the CSI 300 index down 2.13%, and the SSE 50 index down 2.07% [10] Economic Policies - Recent economic adjustment policies have been introduced to support the market, including the establishment of a national-level merger fund and the regulation of local economic promotion behaviors [10] - The National Development and Reform Commission announced plans to advance significant projects in high-tech industries during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [10] Monetary Policy - The central bank lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25 basis points, aimed at supporting specific financing needs in sectors like technological innovation and carbon reduction [10] - This rate cut is expected to guide funds into relevant sectors, enhancing their valuations and reducing financing costs in the long term [10] Market Sentiment - The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have raised the minimum margin ratio for margin trading from 80% to 100%, indicating increased risk aversion among investors [10] - The market is currently in a high volatility phase, with a cautious approach recommended for investors [10] Bond Market - The 30-year bond futures contract rose by 0.18%, while the 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts showed slight declines [11] - The central bank conducted a 750 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining a stable interest rate of 1.4% [11] - The bond market's upward momentum is limited due to ongoing fiscal policies and structural interest rate adjustments [11] Precious Metals - The London spot precious metals market showed a slight recovery, but overall performance remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures hitting the limit down [12] - The gold-silver ratio rose to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price difference narrowed to 404 USD/ounce [12] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying, but long-term support factors remain intact [12]

Group 1 - The commodity market experienced a significant decline, with gold, silver, crude oil, and industrial metals leading the drop, following President Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair, which triggered market sell-offs [1][4] - Gold prices fell by 5%, reaching a two-week low, while silver saw a decline of over 7% [3] - The MSCI global index dropped by 0.5%, marking a cumulative decline of 1.5% since its record high on January 27 [2] Group 2 - Crude oil prices decreased by nearly 5% from recent highs, and LME copper fell by 3% [4] - The market had anticipated a successor to Powell who would promote aggressive monetary easing, but Warsh's appointment disrupted this expectation, strengthening the dollar and making dollar-denominated commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies [4][5] - The recent sell-off in precious metals was exacerbated by the CME Group's announcement to raise margin requirements for metal futures contracts, leading to a significant increase in forced liquidations [6] Group 3 - Analysts noted that the current market conditions reflect a synchronized sell-off of precious metals and equities, indicating that investors perceive Warsh's stance as more hawkish, which could lead to higher interest rates for an extended period [5] - The energy market also faced downward pressure due to easing tensions between the U.S. and Iran, with reports suggesting that Iran is engaging in serious dialogue with Washington [6][7] - Concerns about high inventories and weak demand ahead of the Chinese New Year holiday are impacting copper and iron ore markets, with expectations of reduced trading activity as the holiday approaches [7]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant decline on February 2, with the Sci-Tech 50 index dropping by 3.88%, while the Shanghai Composite, Shenzhen Component, and ChiNext indices all fell by over 2% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.58 trillion yuan, a decrease of approximately 250.7 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - There was a stark contrast in individual stock performance, with only 738 stocks rising and 4,395 stocks declining [1] - Net capital outflow exceeded 100 billion yuan, with the power grid equipment sector seeing the highest net inflow, while the semiconductor sector experienced the most significant net outflow [1] Hot Stocks - The top ten popular stocks included Liou Co., Zhongchao Holdings, Baobian Electric, and others, with varying degrees of market interest [2] Company Insights - Liou Co. gained market attention due to its alignment with multiple hot topics, including AI applications and social media concepts, leading to a turnaround in performance [3] - Zhongchao Holdings benefited from its involvement in commercial aerospace and high-voltage projects, enhancing its market position [3] - Baobian Electric's stock price increase was driven by favorable policies and industry trends, with significant revenue and profit growth reported [3] - Baiyin Nonferrous Metals' stock fluctuations were influenced by rising international precious metal prices and strategic moves to strengthen its gold industry chain [4] - Zhejiang Wenlian's positive performance was attributed to solid advancements in AI marketing and confidence from major shareholders [5] - TBEA's success stemmed from its alignment with national investment policies and a strong order backlog in the high-voltage sector [5] - China Western Power's stock was supported by policy benefits and its leading position in the high-voltage market, with robust revenue growth [5] - Tongding Interconnection's performance was bolstered by the rising sentiment in the optical communication industry and strategic adjustments within the company [6]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices rebounded to over $4800 per ounce, with a daily increase of more than 3% [1][7] - The forced selling wave caused by quantitative funds deleveraging and adjustments in leveraged ETFs has likely been mostly released [1][7] - Bank of America views gold as a crucial hedge against dollar depreciation, stating that "currency devaluation is the basic scenario" [1][7] - JPMorgan predicts that gold will remain a flexible and diverse hedging tool, with current investor demand exceeding previous expectations, potentially driving prices to $6300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [1][7] - New Lake Futures believes that long-term support for gold prices remains, with geopolitical risks and uncertainty in Trump’s policies being key focus areas [1][7] Group 2: Base Metals Outlook - Citic Securities maintains a long-term bullish outlook on the non-ferrous metals sector, citing strong price support from supply disruptions and high demand in certain areas [2][8] - The liquidity easing and rising trading activity, along with heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical conflicts, are expected to amplify price elasticity for metals [2][8] - Huatai Securities recommends a moderate allocation of 10%-20% in non-ferrous metals within investment portfolios to share in potential gains while diversifying risk [2][8] - The Huabao Non-Ferrous Metals ETF and its linked funds cover a wide range of industries, including precious metals, strategic metals, and industrial metals, providing a comprehensive approach to capturing sector performance [2][8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a long - term view of a bullish trend for platinum and palladium, with a medium - to - long - term expectation of prices trending upwards in a volatile manner [2][3][4] Core View - The precious metals market sentiment was pressured, and prices significantly corrected due to Kevin Warsh's nomination as the Fed Chair and CME's increase in margin standards. As of February 2, 2026, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 552.15 yuan/gram, a decline of 16.0%, and the GFEX palladium main contract was 413.7 yuan/gram, also a 16.0% decline [1] - For platinum, although short - term factors pressure the price, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider low - buying opportunities, and also pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens. The supply in South Africa has risks, and the demand in various fields is expanding [2] - For palladium, the short - term price corrected due to market sentiment cooling, and the long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but the short - term price bottom is stable. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Price Movement**: The GFEX platinum main contract closed at 552.15 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Kevin Warsh's nomination and CME's margin increase pressured the price. The medium - to - long - term supply - demand and macro logic remain unchanged. South Africa has supply risks, and demand in various fields is expanding [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Short - term investors should wait and see. After the price stabilizes, consider low - buying. Also, pay attention to internal - external positive arbitrage opportunities if the spread widens [2] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [3] Palladium - **Price Movement**: The GFEX palladium main contract closed at 413.7 yuan/gram on February 2, 2026, with a 16.0% decline [1] - **Main Logic**: Short - term market sentiment decline led to price correction. Long - term supply - demand is becoming looser, but short - term price bottom is stable due to factors like tight spot supply [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait for the market to stabilize before considering low - buying [4] - **Outlook**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - trending in the medium - to - long - term, and short - term fluctuations are affected by gold and silver trends [4] Commodity Index - **Special Index**: The commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% on February 2, 2026 [51] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the non - ferrous metals index was 2709.50, with a daily decline of 5.11%, a 5 - day decline of 4.88%, a 1 - month increase of 0.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.88% [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - Gold's short - term price may continue to adjust, but its long - term upward logic remains unchanged. Silver also enters a short - term adjustment period with high volatility risks, and its long - term upward support is still strong. The "Wash trade" is a short - term catalyst for the market adjustment, but it is difficult to cause a trend - based negative impact on precious metals [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections Gold Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period after overheating, while the long - term upward logic remains intact [2]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in gold prices is mainly due to technical adjustments caused by overcrowded long - positions and the "Wash trade". Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, was nominated as the next Fed chair on January 30, and his hawkish stance (supporting rate cuts but also advocating balance - sheet reduction) led to market concerns. However, his nomination is unlikely to cause a long - term negative impact on precious metals [2]. - **Outlook**: Gold's long - term upward trend is still supported [2]. Silver Analysis - **View**: Short - term enters an adjustment period, and high - volatility risks should be watched out for [3]. - **Logic**: The sharp decline in silver prices is due to technical corrections caused by over - buying and crowded trading, and the "Wash trade" has intensified the adjustment. The decline in the London silver spot leasing rate and the reduction in global silver ETF holdings also slow down the bullish drivers on the spot side [3]. - **Outlook**: Silver still has strong long - term bullish support [3]. Market Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On February 2, 2026, the commodity index was 2420.95, down 3.75%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.66, down 4.55%; the industrial products index was 2312.70, down 2.62% [45]. - **Precious Metals Index**: On February 2, 2026, the precious metals index was 4447.17, with a daily decline of 11.27%, a 5 - day decline of 10.91%, a one - month increase of 16.29%, and a year - to - date increase of 16.29% [47].