1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market has entered a short - term slight oscillation phase. The international soybean market supply remains loose with significant overall pressure, and the upward space for US and Brazilian soybeans is limited. The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is relatively loose with inventory pressure. The rapeseed meal inventory is at a relatively low level, but the demand is also average, and the price lacks obvious fluctuations. The rebound space of the soybean meal inter - monthly spread may be limited, and the rapeseed meal inter - monthly spread may continue to show some downward pressure [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Today, the US soybean market oscillated. The domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal also oscillated slightly. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal changed little. The inter - monthly spreads of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined slightly [4]. - For futures prices, soybean meal contract 01 closed at 2933, down 4; contract 05 at 2743, down 8; contract 09 at 2852, down 6. Rapeseed meal contract 01 closed at 2416, up 11; contract 05 at 2323, down 4; contract 09 at 2407, unchanged [4]. - For spot basis, the basis of soybean meal in Tianjin remained at 40, in Dongguan increased from - 50 to - 40, and in Zhangjiagang remained at - 60. The basis of rapeseed meal in Nantong decreased from 65 to 44, in Guangdong decreased from 95 to 84, and in Guangxi decreased from 85 to 74 [4]. - For inter - monthly spreads, the 15 - spread of soybean meal increased from 186 to 190, the 59 - spread decreased from - 107 to - 109, and the 91 - spread decreased from - 79 to - 81. The 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased from 78 to 93, the 59 - spread decreased from - 80 to - 84, and the 91 - spread decreased from 2 to - 9 [4]. - For cross - variety spreads, the 01 spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased from 532 to 517, the 09 spread decreased from 451 to 445, and the 01 oil - meal ratio remained at 2.779 [4]. - For spot spreads, the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 328 to 332, the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal increased from 538 to 542, and the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal remained at 230 [4]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In the US, the ending stocks of the old - crop soybean balance sheet were slightly increased. The new - crop production slightly decreased in yield but increased in planted area, with overall supply slightly increasing. The price decline space is limited, and the market is mainly affected by exports [5]. - In South America, the old - crop soybean supply - demand is loose. The production of major exporting countries is expected to increase by 15.39 million tons, and the crushing volume by 8.21 million tons. The Brazilian farmers' selling progress is slow, and the price pressure exists, but the high price is due to optimistic export expectations [5]. - Internationally, the supply pressure of soybean meal is obvious. The annual crushing volume of major producing areas is expected to increase by 21.536 million tons, while the import volume of major importing countries only slightly increases [5]. - Domestically, the spot market of soybean meal is loose. As of September 26, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.2672 million tons, the operating rate was 63.28%, the soybean inventory was 7.1991 million tons, up 3.63% from last week and 14.38% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.1892 million tons, down 4.86% from last week and 3.04% year - on - year [7]. - The demand for domestic rapeseed meal is gradually weakening. As of September 26, the crushing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills was 20,000 tons, the operating rate was 5.33%, the rapeseed inventory was 26,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from last week, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 15,000 tons, down 2,500 tons [7]. 3.3 Macro - analysis - The Sino - US Madrid negotiation was completed. Due to the lack of clear macro - guidance, the market is worried about the uncertainty of subsequent supply. However, China's long - term demand for US soybeans exists, so the price is unlikely to drop significantly in the short term [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, it is recommended to short a small amount of soybean meal [9]. - For arbitrage, a long spread between M11 and M1 is recommended [9]. - For options, a short strangle strategy is suggested [9]. 3.5 Soybean Crushing Profit - The crushing profit varies by origin and shipping date. For example, for Argentine soybeans with an 11 - month shipping date, the crushing profit was - 31.91, down from 0. For Brazilian soybeans, the crushing profit also changed with different shipping dates [10].

Core Insights - Wheat futures remained flat to down by 2 cents per bushel as traders await the USDA's quarterly grain stocks data to be released on Tuesday [1] - Analysts expect U.S. wheat stocks as of September 1 to be 2.043 billion bushels, up from 1.992 billion bushels year-over-year [1] - Global wheat supply is ample, but Russian export prices have risen for the second consecutive week due to increased demand [1] Wheat Market Summary - CBOT December soft red winter wheat futures fell by 1 cent to $5.1875 per bushel [1] Corn Market Summary - Corn futures declined by 1 to 3 cents per bushel as U.S. corn harvesting progresses, putting pressure on prices [1] - The USDA anticipates record harvest yields for corn [1] - Analysts project September 1 corn stocks to be 1.337 billion bushels, down from 1.763 billion bushels year-over-year [1] - CBOT December corn futures dropped by 2.25 cents to $4.1975 per bushel [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Domestic): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean (Imported): Not rated - Soybean Meal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★★★ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★★★ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ★★★ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand situation of different agricultural products varies, and the market performance also shows different trends. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of various factors such as production, inventory, policies, and seasons on the market [2][3][5]. - For different agricultural products, different investment strategies are recommended, including short - term tracking, long - term cautious optimism, and pre - holiday waiting and seeing [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - Domestic soybean prices are currently strong, with low - protein soybeans on the market. The expected output of domestic soybeans is flat or slightly increased compared to last year due to increased planting area. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has widened. The price of US soybeans is weak due to seasonal harvest pressure and uncertain export prospects. The supply of domestic soybeans may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Focus on the performance of domestic soybeans after listing and the new Brazilian crop in the second quarter of next year [2]. Soybean & Soybean Meal - After Argentina's export policy was introduced, the prices of related products on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell sharply, with a weekly decline of 2.98%. After reaching the sales limit of $7 billion, Argentina cancelled the soybean tax - exemption policy. The domestic soybean meal inventory of oil mills has risen to 125 tons. The supply of soybeans from July to November is sufficient, and the annual output of domestic soybeans is expected to reach 21 million tons. The supply in the fourth quarter is generally stable, and the possible supply gap will occur in the first quarter of next year. The short - term trend of soybean meal is affected by foreign policies, and long - term cautious optimism is maintained [3]. Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - US soybeans are under seasonal harvest pressure, and China has not purchased US soybeans. The domestic soybean supply may be tight in the first quarter of next year, but the risk of supply gap will be alleviated. Palm oil is in a seasonal production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter. In the medium term, soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate within a range, and they face macro - risk tests [3]. Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The rapeseed futures market shows a pattern of weak oil and strong meal, but the overall fluctuation is small. The supply of rapeseed is sufficient, which suppresses the price of rapeseed meal. The demand for rapeseed meal is limited due to low price - performance ratio and the approaching off - season of aquatic feed. The demand for rapeseed oil increases in autumn and winter, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday [5]. Corn - The output of new - season corn is expected to increase due to favorable weather conditions. The opening price of new - season corn has dropped. Shandong's spot price is weak, and the supply is increasing. Corn is expected to fluctuate before and after the opening of new - season grain, and the Dalian corn futures are expected to remain weak at the bottom [6]. Live Hogs - The price of live hog futures has dropped significantly, and the valuation centers of near - and far - month contracts have shifted down. The supply of live hogs is abundant, and the spot price has reached a new low. The government has carried out small - scale frozen - pork purchases. The supply pressure in the second half of the year is high, and the industry is in a loss state. Attention should be paid to the process of capacity reduction and the impact of re - entry in the fourth quarter [7]. Eggs - The egg futures have significantly reduced their positions. The spot price has declined after reaching a high point on September 17. After the National Day, the demand for eggs will weaken. The industry needs to deeply reduce production capacity. The pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year, and the peak of production capacity is expected to occur in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to consider long - position layouts for the far - month contracts in the first half of next year and pay attention to the exit of short - position funds for near - month contracts [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall corn production in Heilongjiang this year is slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. The grain quality is better, especially with a high bulk density. The new - grain price is still weak. [13][12] - In the short - term (before November), the corn market is bearish; in the medium - term, the downside is limited, and there is a strong willingness to build inventories at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying. In the long - term, the upside is not optimistic due to the pending release of policy grain sources. Overall, the corn price is expected to be relatively stable, and policy guidance is crucial. [24] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs New Season Production Situation - **Sown Area**: The overall sown area in Heilongjiang decreased slightly year - on - year, with a 4% decline in the eastern region and some local areas having stable or increased areas. [14] - **Yield per Unit**: Excluding a small number of drought - affected plots, most areas saw an increase in yield per unit. In eastern Heilongjiang, the yield per unit was mostly 12 - 13 tons/ha this year, compared to 11 - 12 tons/ha last year. [14] - **Grain Quality**: The overall grain quality is better than last year, with a high bulk density (generally 710 - 720), and in Baoquanling, the bulk density is 740 - 750 with low toxin levels. [12] - **Production**: Slightly higher than last year but lower than 2023. [13] - **Planting Cost**: In eastern Heilongjiang, the average land rent this year is 12,000 yuan/ha, down from 13,000 yuan/ha last year. The total cost is about 18,000 yuan/ha, corresponding to a wet - grain price of 0.6 - 0.75 yuan/jin and a dried - grain price of 1520 - 1900 yuan/ton. [16] - **Opening Price**: The opening price of processing enterprises showed a high - to - low trend. The price of deep - processing enterprises dropped from 0.85 yuan/jin to 0.79 yuan/jin by September 24, and the overall new - grain price is still weak. [17] - **Grain - Selling and Acquisition Emotions**: Some farmers are eager to sell due to high temperatures, while traders and processors are not in a hurry to buy. Some farmers will hold back if the price is below 0.8 yuan/jin and will sell in December to repay loans. Harvesting will start comprehensively during the National Day holiday. [18] - **Answers to Questions**: Drought has no impact on production; the impact of increased production on prices is limited; the market previously traded the planting - cost - based port price at 2050 - 2150 yuan/ton; the bottom price of wet grain is expected to be 0.75 yuan/jin, corresponding to a port price of 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton. [23][22] Trade and Downstream Situation - **Market Outlook**: Short - term (before November) bearish; medium - term, limited downside with support at 1900 - 1950 yuan/ton after drying; long - term, limited upside due to policy grain sources. The overall price is expected to be stable, and policy guidance is key. [24] - **Profit and Development Direction of the Processing Industry**: The processing profit of the corn deep - processing industry has been poor this year, with starch processing at a near - break - even point and alcohol in continuous loss. The future development direction is to vertically expand the industrial chain, especially focusing on amino - acid products. [25] - **Inventory - Building Plan and Rhythm**: Short - term, passive inventory building; medium - term, increase inventory building when the price approaches the planting cost. Traders are more positive, while enterprises are more cautious and focus on the impact of storage policies. [26] - **Actual Use of Futures**: The corn basis - point pricing model is widely used but needs improvement. Corn delivery warehouses are more proficient in using futures tools, and large enterprises are exploring hedging services. Currently, the corn futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and participation will resume when the market provides an opportunity. [27] Research Thinking - **Macro - Level**: Focus on policy - regulation directions and intensities, such as policy storage, policy - grain auctions, and import policies. [29] - **Industry - Level**: Consider the transmission of industrial profits, inventory cycles (passive inventory building), and expectations, behaviors, and results. [29] - **Supply - Demand Rhythm**: Pay attention to the rhythm of grain selling, inventory building, port collection, and futures - spot trading. [30]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Short - term decline**: For soymeal, rapeseed meal, the short - term supply is sufficient with various influencing factors such as soybean harvest and trade policies, and the prices are expected to decline in the short term [1][3][5]. - **Short - term continued adjustment**: Palm oil and soybean oil are affected by factors like the US biodiesel policy and soybean harvest, and their prices are expected to continue to adjust in the short term [1][6][7]. - **High - level oscillation**: Rapeseed oil is supported by trade disputes and inventory cycles but limited by trade expansion, maintaining a high - level oscillating trend [1]. - **Cautiously bearish**: Cotton and jujube face supply pressure and other issues, and their prices are cautiously expected to decline. Strategies suggest short - term short - allocation for cotton and seizing short - selling opportunities for jujube [1][8][11][14]. - **Cautiously bearish for live pigs**: Live pigs are under supply pressure in the short and medium term, and there is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soymeal - **Market data**: The futures price of soymeal's main contract closed at 2967 yuan/ton, up 1.26% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3025.43 yuan/ton, up 1.25%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 217.4407 yuan/ton, an increase of 29.12 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 898.3 million tons, a decrease of 70.30 million tons from the previous week. The soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 694.66 million tons, a decrease of 38.54 million tons, and the soymeal inventory was 125 million tons, an increase of 8.56 million tons from the previous week [3]. - **Outlook**: The start of the US soybean harvest and the increase in domestic inventory put short - term pressure on soymeal. Due to Sino - US trade tariffs, the continued downward space is expected to be limited. Attention should be paid to the US soybean quarterly inventory data at the end of September, the US biodiesel policy, and Sino - US trade progress [1][3]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal's main contract was 2444 yuan/ton, up 2.05% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2571.58 yuan/ton, up 1.50% [4]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 4.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 million tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week [5]. - **Outlook**: Trade policies and high inventory lead to a mixed situation of long and short factors. Rapeseed meal's trend mainly follows that of soymeal. Attention should be paid to Sino - Canadian trade progress [1][5]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of palm oil's main contract was 9222 yuan/ton, up 1.05% from the previous day. The national average price was 9250 yuan/ton, up 2.04%. The national daily trading volume was 800 tons, an increase of 166.67% [6]. - **Supply and demand**: As of September 19, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 58.51 million tons, a decrease of 5.64 million tons from the previous week. From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil product exports increased by 11.31% compared to the same period in August [7]. - **Outlook**: Frequent changes in the US biodiesel policy and expected inventory accumulation in Malaysia in September may suppress palm oil's performance before the double festivals. A short - term weak oscillating market is expected. Attention should be paid to Malaysia's palm oil exports this month and the performance of the US soybean oil market [1][7]. 3.4 Cotton - **Market data**: Zhengzhou cotton's main contract CF2601 decreased by 0.92% to 13405 yuan/ton, and the domestic spot price decreased by 0.32% to 15059 yuan/ton. ICE cotton's main contract increased by 0.08% to 65.19 cents/pound [9]. - **Supply and demand**: Internationally, the US cotton harvest is progressing, and the supply pressure is increasing. Domestically, new cotton has started preliminary harvesting, with weak farmers' price - holding sentiment and no obvious rush - to - buy situation. The demand side shows a marginal weakening trend [9][10][11]. - **Outlook**: The supply side is under pressure, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected to maintain a pressured oscillating market. Short - term short - allocation of near - month contracts is recommended [1][8][11]. 3.5 Jujube - **Market data**: The jujube's main contract CJ2601 increased by 2.97% to 11285 yuan/ton [14]. - **Supply and demand**: The main jujube - producing areas are in the coloring and sugar - increasing stage. The estimated new - season output is 56 - 62 million tons, and the inventory is higher than the same period. The demand in the sales area is weak [14]. - **Outlook**: Considering the output and inventory, there is still pressure after the new jujubes are listed. Before November, there may be large price fluctuations due to speculation. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities during rebounds [1][14]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Market data**: The main contract Lh2511 of live pigs decreased by 0.98% to 12575 yuan/ton, and the spot price remained stable at 12760 yuan/ton [15][16]. - **Supply and demand**: In the short term, the supply pressure is strong, and the planned slaughter volume in September is expected to increase. In the medium term, the number of piglets born from January to August is increasing, indicating a potential increase in slaughter volume. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows is declining [16]. - **Outlook**: The spot price is under double pressure from slaughter and feed. In the short and medium term, the supply pressure will drive the price down. There is no clear positive news in the long term. The 11 - contract is recommended for short - allocation, and the inter - month reverse spread strategy is maintained [1][15][17].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a peanut daily report dated September 29, 2025, from the Commodity Research Institute's Agricultural Product R & D section [1][2] Group 2: Data Summary Futures Disk - PK604 closed at 7842, up 16 (0.20%), with a trading volume of 52 (up 205.88%) and an open interest of 437 (up 1.63%) [2] - PK510 closed at 7800, up 12 (0.15%), with a trading volume of 1,733 (down 32.46%) and an open interest of 1,628 (down 48.72%) [2] - PK601 closed at 7820, up 48 (0.61%), with a trading volume of 24,514 (up 83.69%) and an open interest of 57,942 (up 5.55%) [2] Spot and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang, Shandong Jining, and Shandong Linyi were 8800, 8600, and 8600 respectively, with no change [2] - Rize peanut meal was 3300, Rize soybean meal was 2930 (up 10), peanut oil was 14670, and Rize first - grade soybean oil was 8330 (down 70) [2] - Import prices: Sudanese rice was 8500 with no change, and Senegalese rice had no price change [2] Spread - PK01 - PK04 spread was - 22, up 32; PK04 - PK10 spread had an increase of 4; PK10 - PK01 spread was - 20, down 36 [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices were stable, while Northeast peanut prices were weak. Jilin Fuyu 308 was 4.2 yuan/jin (stable), Liaoning Changtu was 4.25 yuan/jin (down 0.05 yuan/jin) [4] - Henan's Baisha general rice was 4.3 - 4.4 yuan/jin (stable), Shandong Junan was 4.15 yuan/jin (stable) [4] - Imported Sudanese refined new rice was 8150 yuan/ton, Senegalese oil - type rice was 7600 - 7800 yuan/ton (stable) [4] - Most peanut oil mills stopped purchasing today. Before stopping, the mainstream transaction price was 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price for oil mills was 7980 yuan/ton [4] - Peanut oil and soybean oil prices were stable. Domestic first - grade ordinary peanut oil was 14800 yuan/ton, and small - pressed fragrant peanut oil was 16500 yuan/ton [4] - Rize soybean meal spot rose to 2930 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton). The protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal was high, and peanut meal was weak in the short term, with 48 - protein peanut meal at 3250 yuan/ton [7] - It is expected that peanut spot will be relatively strong in the short term [4] Group 4: Trading Strategies - For unilateral trading, 11 - contract peanuts are in a low - level shock, and one can go long with a light position [9] - For monthly spreads, it is recommended to wait and see [10] - For options, sell and hold pk511 - P - 7600 [11] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes six charts: Shandong peanut spot price, peanut oil mill profit, peanut oil price, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [13][19][23]

Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal (M2601): Expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960. The US soybean market is awaiting the outcome of Sino - US tariff negotiations and harvest weather. In China, high September soybean imports and spot price discounts may lead to a return to an oscillatory pattern [9]. - Soybeans (A2511): Forecast to fluctuate between 3900 and 4000. The US soybean market is restricted by South American harvests and good growing conditions. In China, domestic soybeans have a cost - performance advantage, but high imports and expected new - season production increases may suppress prices [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - No detailed content provided in the given text 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term bearish sentiment for US soybeans. The US soybean market will continue to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further developments [13]. - China's September soybean imports remain high, and oil - mill soybean meal inventories are at a relatively high level. The soybean market will likely return to an oscillatory pattern [13]. - Reduced pig - farming profits in China have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, increased demand for soybean meal in August and September, along with uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, will keep the soybean meal market oscillating [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish: Slow customs clearance for imported soybeans, relatively low oil - mill soybean meal inventories, and uncertain US soybean - growing weather [14]. - Bearish: High September imports of soybeans in China and expected high yields from South American soybeans [14]. Soybeans - Bullish: Cost support from imported soybeans and expected increased domestic demand for soybeans [15]. - Bearish: High yields of Brazilian soybeans and expected increases in new - season domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and total supply generally increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance: From 2015 to 2024, harvest areas, production, and imports increased. Ending stocks and the stock - to - use ratio fluctuated [33]. 5. Position Data - No detailed content provided in the given text 6. Soybean and Soybean Meal Market Conditions - Price Trends: Soybean meal futures declined, while spot prices remained stable, with a slight narrowing of the spot discount. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [16][18][23]. - Inventory Status: Oil - mill soybean inventories decreased from a high level, while soybean meal inventories continued to increase. Oil - mill unfulfilled contracts decreased from a high level [47][49]. - Import and Export: US soybean weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. China's September soybean imports decreased from a high level but increased overall year - on - year [44][46]. - Pig Farming: Pig inventories increased, sow inventories were flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices declined, and piglet prices remained weak. Pig - farming profits deteriorated recently [55][57][61].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Next week (09.29 - 09.30), the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to fluctuate, and investors are advised to avoid risks during the National Day holiday. For soybean meal, trade - related event risks should be avoided. For soybeans, the futures market may shift to expectations of policy support as new soybeans are on the market and spot prices are weak [1][6]. 3. Summary by Related Content International Soybean Market - **Price Movement**: Last week (09.22 - 09.26), US soybean futures prices were weak due to the Argentine tax - exemption event and Sino - US trade friction concerns. The weekly decline of the US soybean November contract was 1.17%, and that of the US soybean meal December contract was 3.27%. The domestic soybean meal futures price was weak, and the soybean futures price was strong. The weekly decline of the soybean meal m2601 contract was 2.55%, and the weekly increase of the soybean a2511 contract was 0.79% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: - US soybean net sales decreased week - on - week, which was neutral to bearish. In the week of September 18, the 2025/26 US soybean export shipments were about 510,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 34%; the cumulative export shipments were about 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 39%. The current - year (2025/26) weekly net sales were about 720,000 tons, and the next - year (2026/27) weekly net sales were 0. The total was about 720,000 tons, in line with expectations [1]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate decreased week - on - week and was lower than expected, which was bullish. As of the week of September 22, the good - to - excellent rate was 61%, lower than the market expectation, compared with 63% the previous week and 64% last year [1]. - The Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and crushing margin: As of the week of September 26, the average CNF premium for November Brazilian soybeans increased slightly week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing margin decreased week - on - week [1]. - The planting progress of new - crop Brazilian soybeans was the same as last year, with little impact. As of the week of September 18, the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean planting progress was about 0.9%, the same as last year [1]. - The Argentine tariff event had a short - term impact on the market, but the follow - up impact was small. The Argentine government announced the cancellation of export tariffs on soybeans and related products from September 22 to October 31, with a maximum tax - exemption amount of $7 billion. The policy ended on September 24 as the tax - exemption target was reached [1]. - The weather forecast for the US and Brazilian soybean - growing regions: In the next two weeks (September 27 - October 11), precipitation will be low and temperatures will be high. This is beneficial for US soybean harvesting but unfavorable for Brazilian soybean planting [1][3]. Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Transaction**: The trading volume increased week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average daily trading volume of mainstream oil mills was about 170,000 tons, compared with about 130,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Pick - up**: The pick - up volume decreased week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average daily pick - up volume of major oil mills was about 189,000 tons, compared with about 198,000 tons the previous week [4]. - **Basis**: The basis increased slightly week - on - week. As of the week of September 26, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about - 29 yuan/ton, compared with about - 30 yuan/ton the previous week [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased week - on - week and decreased year - on - year. As of the week of September 19, the inventory of mainstream oil mills was about 1.09 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 4% and a year - on - year decrease of about 19% [4]. - **Crushing**: The soybean crushing volume decreased week - on - week and is expected to decrease significantly next week. As of the week of September 26, the domestic weekly soybean crushing volume was about 2.27 million tons, and the operating rate was about 63%. Next week (September 27 - October 3), the expected crushing volume is about 1.76 million tons, and the operating rate is 49% [4]. Domestic Soybean Spot Market - **New Soybean Listing**: New soybeans are on the market, and prices have fallen. In Northeast China, the purchase price of clean soybeans decreased by 240 - 320 yuan/ton week - on - week; in the northern part of the country, the price was flat; in the sales areas, the price of Northeast edible soybeans decreased by 20 - 160 yuan/ton week - on - week [5]. - **Harvest in Northeast China**: The harvest area of new soybeans in the Northeast has increased, and prices have fallen. Most areas in Heilongjiang have started to harvest new soybeans, mainly early - maturing varieties. The new soybean price is lower than the old soybean price [5]. - **State Reserve Auction**: The state - reserve soybean auction has resumed and all lots were sold. On September 26, about 19,000 tons were auctioned and all were purchased by protein factories [5]. - **Price Adjustment in Sales Areas**: The arrival of low - protein Northeast new soybeans in some sales areas has led to price adjustments. Downstream markets are purchasing as needed and waiting for large - scale arrivals of new soybeans [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [4] - Sugar: Neutral [8] - Pulp: Neutral [11] 2. Core Views - Cotton: New cotton production increase expectations continue to suppress the market, and with the weak peak season in September and insufficient demand support, cotton prices still have the risk of further decline [4] - Sugar: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but there is cost support after continuous decline, so the short - term downside space may be limited [8] - Pulp: The current pulp fundamentals have insufficient improvement, the entire industry chain lacks positive driving forces, and short - term pulp prices may remain at the bottom and continue to fluctuate at a low level [11] 3. Summary by Industry Cotton - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the cotton 2601 contract was at 13,405 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline. Spot: Xinjiang cotton spot price was 14,995 yuan/ton, down 203 yuan/ton. The national weighted average spot price was 15,043 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [1] - Internationally, from September 12 - 18, US 2025/26 upland cotton net signings were 19,527 tons, a 54% decrease from the previous week. Shipments were 31,116 tons, a 14% increase from the previous week. As of September 23, about 49% of the US cotton - growing areas were affected by drought, an 8 - percentage - point increase from the previous week [1] - Domestically, in August 2025, China's cotton cloth exports were 563 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.27% and a year - on - year increase of 14.20%. From January - August 2025, exports were 4.2 billion meters, a year - on - year increase of 10.50% [2] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, the September USDA report increased global cotton production and consumption, and reduced beginning and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but the short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [3] - Domestically, Xinjiang cottonseed has started to be purchased. The expected panic buying has not occurred. The estimated Xinjiang production is about 7.3 million tons, and the market may face pressure during the peak listing period [3] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the sugar 2601 contract was at 5,478 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase. Spot: Guangxi Nanning's sugar spot price was 5,780 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; Yunnan Kunming's was 5,810 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton [5] - Internationally, it is estimated that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of September was 45.92 million tons, a 6.8% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.6 million tons, a 15% year - on - year increase [5][6] - Domestically, as of September 23, two sugar enterprises in Inner Mongolia have started production for the 2025/26 season, and the estimated sugar production is 650,000 - 680,000 tons, slightly increasing from the previous season [6] - **Market Analysis** - Internationally, Brazilian sugar production is increasing, and the short - term supply is strong, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. However, there is support from the ethanol price [7] - Domestically, sugar sales in August were poor, imports reached a new high, and beet sugar has started to be crushed, so the short - term supply is sufficient [7] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data** - Futures: As of Friday's close, the pulp 2511 contract was at 5,016 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton, a 0.04% decline. Spot: The average spot price of "Yinxing" softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,610 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the average price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,110 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [9] - Internationally, in August 2025, European chemical pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a 2.35% year - on - year increase, and inventory was 707,800 tons, an 11.34% year - on - year increase [9] - Domestically, the total pulp inventory in one region and eight ports decreased by 4.46% week - on - week, with an expanded decline [9] - **Market Analysis** - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans have some positive impact, but the actual transactions in September were poor, and the global supply pressure remains. Domestic imports decreased in the third quarter, but port inventory remains high [10] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption has been weak. Domestic demand is the main factor suppressing pulp prices. Although there is new paper production capacity, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' purchasing is cautious [10]

9月26日，大商所玉米期货仓单21814手，环比上个交易日持平。 一、行情回顾 9月26日夜盘，玉米期货延续震荡运行走势，主力合约小幅收涨0.37%，报2184.00元/吨。 二、基本面汇总 西南期货：短期国内玉米供需趋向平衡，消费延续回暖，陈粮较为紧俏，港口库存快速回归，库存压力 减退，基差偏强。1-8月玉米进口锐减，进口毛利水平仍偏高，后续进口或有上量空间；中储粮玉米网 拍持续净销售，进口玉米持续轮出，北方主产区玉米逐步开始收获，丰产预期较强，成本或下修，玉米 价格上方或有一定压力，或观望为宜 当前饲企玉米库存季节性减少，延续随用随补。据对全国18个省份，47家规模饲料厂的最新调查数据显 示，截至9月25日，全国饲料企业平均库存26.01天，较上周减少0.15天，环比下跌0.57%,同比下跌 6.94%。 美国农业部（USDA）将在北京时间10月1日（周三）零点发布季度谷物库存报告。分析机构对美国9月 1日玉米库存的平均预估为13.37亿蒲式耳，创四年低位，较之前一年同期下滑24%。然而，这一数字高 于美国农业部9月供需报告中对美国2024/25年度玉米年末库存预估值13.25亿蒲式耳。 三、机构观点 国 ...