格隆汇8月12日丨通威股份(600438.SH)在互动平台表示，公司可用于半导体产业的电子级多晶硅已批量 稳定供货，持续践行电子级晶硅"通威智造"。 ...

Core Viewpoints - The main contract for polysilicon futures experienced a rapid increase, reaching a peak of 53,400.0 yuan, with a current price of 52,980.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.98% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures indicates a clear range pattern for polysilicon in the short term, with significant influences from recent industry associations advocating against excessive competition [1] - Donghai Futures notes a cooling market sentiment, predicting a high-level fluctuation for polysilicon in the short term, supported by lower spot prices and successful price increases in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [2] - Minmetals Futures advises cautious participation from both bulls and bears, highlighting the expected increase in polysilicon production in August, while noting that downstream silicon wafer production increases are limited [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The recent joint initiative by multiple provincial industrial silicon associations is expected to drive the polysilicon market, with a focus on the recovery progress of industrial silicon and the impact of policy advancements [1] - The increase in warehouse receipts indicates a shift in market dynamics, with a potential for high-level fluctuations due to the uncertain transmission of price increases along the supply chain [2][3] - The ongoing narrative around capacity consolidation policies adds to the uncertainty in the market, suggesting that price volatility may increase [3]

Core Insights - The recent decline in silicon material prices is attributed to a significant reduction in demand from downstream silicon wafer manufacturers, with production cuts exceeding 50% [1][3] - The price of N-type silicon material has decreased more sharply than P-type, reflecting a growing price gap between large and small manufacturers [1][3] - The industry is entering a consolidation phase, where less competitive players may be eliminated, leading to a stronger market position for companies with advanced technology and cost management [3] Price Trends - The average transaction price for N-type silicon material is 75,200 CNY/ton, down 19.23% from two weeks ago, while single crystal dense material averages 67,900 CNY/ton, down 15.23% [1] - InfoLink Consulting reports a smaller price drop for dense material, with an average of 74,000 CNY/ton, and a price range for second-tier and new entrants between 61,000 CNY and 68,000 CNY/ton [2] Market Dynamics - The pressure on silicon material companies is increasing due to inventory accumulation and the need to secure orders amid low demand [1] - The silicon wafer market shows a significant price drop, with M10 single crystal wafers averaging 2.39 CNY/piece, N-type at 2.50 CNY/piece, and G12 at 3.35 CNY/piece, reflecting weekly declines of 5.91%, 3.47%, and 3.46% respectively [4] - There is a notable price differentiation between first-tier and second-tier silicon wafer manufacturers, particularly for N-type wafers [4][6] Downstream Impact - The prices for mainstream battery sizes are also declining, with P-type M10 and G12 batteries trading between 0.47-0.5 CNY/W and 0.52-0.53 CNY/W respectively [5] - The component prices are approaching 1.1 CNY/W, primarily fulfilling previous orders, indicating ongoing downward pressure in the photovoltaic supply chain [6] - The overall price decline in the photovoltaic industry suggests an impending reshuffle, highlighting the varying capabilities of companies in market expansion and cost control [6]

Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has issued a notice for energy-saving inspections in the polysilicon industry, targeting 41 companies nationwide, with results due by September 30 [1][2] - This initiative is the first standalone document from MIIT specifically for the polysilicon sector, aimed at standardizing energy-saving inspection procedures and reducing the burden on enterprises [1] - The inspections are part of MIIT's annual routine, focusing on compliance with energy consumption limits and the elimination of outdated, high-energy-consuming products and processes [1] Industry Impact - The timing of this announcement coincides with the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" period, suggesting a move to clarify actual energy consumption levels and prevent energy consumption misreporting [2] - According to Guoyuan Securities, the energy-saving inspections and accompanying policies are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity from the industry [2] - Non-compliant production capacities, particularly those with energy consumption exceeding 60 kWh/kg, may face mandatory shutdowns, while high-cost capacities could be forced out of the market due to strict enforcement of the "cost-plus pricing" regulation [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report date: August 12, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Researchers: Li Jie, Ren Junchi, Peng Haozhou, Peng Jinglin, Liu Youran, Feng Zeren [1][3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The polysilicon contract continued its rebound trend. The closing price of PS2509 was 52,985 yuan/ton, with a gain of 6.34%. The trading volume was 592,822 lots, and the open interest was 139,739 lots, with a net increase of 2,143 lots [4] Outlook - The transaction price range of N-type refeed materials was 45,000 - 49,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 47,200 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 0.21%. The futures and spot prices were rigidly supported by the policy. Short - term declines were mostly stage adjustments. The commodity rebound and the daily limit in the same sector provided emotional stimulation and policy imagination [4] - Recently, the开工 rate of rising - price varieties has rebounded significantly. The supply - demand contradiction has not intensified, but the increase in polysilicon prices has not been transmitted to components and terminal power stations. The fundamentals, although not the short - term dominant factor, also restricted the price increase [4] - On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which could meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and battery cells decreased to about 52GW. The overall supply - demand pattern remained loose. Therefore, short - term emotional fermentation might test the resistance level, and the overall trend would be mainly wide - range fluctuations [4] Group 3: Market News - On August 8, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,700 lots, a net increase of 1,080 lots from the previous trading day [5] - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%. In June, the domestic installed capacity was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5] - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel: The supporting logic at the mine end is weakening, and the logic at the smelting end restricts elasticity [2][4]. - Stainless steel: The game between bulls and bears intensifies, and steel prices fluctuate [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: It is running strongly [2][9]. - Industrial silicon: The night - trading price of coking coal has risen. Attention should be paid to the boost of market sentiment [2][13]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to market information disturbances [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,130, with a series of changes compared to previous periods. For stainless steel, the closing price of the main contract was 13,225, also showing different changes over time. There were also detailed data on production, industry chain, and relevant prices such as high - nickel pig iron, nickel plate - high - nickel iron spread, etc. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: There were multiple news items, including Ontario's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP in Indonesia, plans to shorten the mining quota period in Indonesia, changes in the RKAB production plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and a steel mill's production reduction in Shandong [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0 [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts were provided, as well as information on the basis, raw materials, and product prices in the lithium carbonate industry chain [10] - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. CATL suspended mining operations due to an expired mining license and is applying for renewal. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in July was 54.0%, with changes in the market shares of different brands [11][12] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1 [12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the Si2511 and PS2511 contracts was given, along with data on the basis, prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as raw material costs [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The first - phase project of the Gansu Heihe Silicon - based New Material Comprehensive Utilization Project is in the final construction stage, with a total investment of 2.063 billion yuan and planned production capacities of industrial silicon and high - purity ferrosilicon [13][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has been adjusted downward due to cooling sentiment and hedging pressure on the upper side of the futures market. However, the bullish sentiment has resurfaced recently, and it is expected that the silicon price will remain strong at a high level. For polysilicon, since the end of June, driven by supply - side reform expectations and spot price increases, the polysilicon futures market has continued to rise, and the price has repeatedly hit new highs since listing. Although the sentiment has faded recently, there are still fluctuations, and the price remains strong at a high level with large market volatility, so operation requires caution [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Price Changes - Industrial silicon: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) increased by 1.10% to 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) increased by 0.52% to 9,750 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.33% to 9,000 yuan/ton. The N - type polysilicon material price remained unchanged, with N - type dense material at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract rose 4.32% to 52,985 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis of Industrial Silicon - Supply: As the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower electricity costs and steadily increasing enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily [1]. - Demand: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some silicon material plants have复产 plans, which will bring some demand increments. In the organic silicon sector, a large factory has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, with a temporary tightening of supply. Recently, monomer plants have recovered, increasing market supply pressure and potentially pressuring prices again. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream has insufficient willingness to stock up at low levels [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis of Polysilicon - Supply: Polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut state, but some may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting increases and decreases, the output is expected to increase slightly, with an expected output approaching 110,000 tons in July and increasing to about 130,000 tons in August [1]. - Demand: The photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in polysilicon prices, the downstream silicon wafer prices have followed suit. Enterprises say they will actively respond to policies, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the high - volume installations in the first half of the year have significantly overdrawn demand, and the terminal market remains weak [1]. 3.4 Industry News - Silicon Bao Technology has launched self - developed low - density, high - flame - retardant organic silicon sealing materials for the power battery adhesive field, and double - component fast - curing organic silicon sealants for the photovoltaic adhesive field [1]. - Indian energy enterprise SAEL Industries' subsidiary will build a 5GW battery and 5GW component vertically integrated factory in Uttar Pradesh, with a total investment of about 6.8 billion yuan [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Industrial Silicon (SI): Oscillating [8][9] - Polysilicon (PS): Oscillating [10] - Lithium Carbonate (LC): Bullish [87] 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply of industrial silicon is expanding due to continuous resumption of production in factories in the northwest and southwest regions, while downstream polysilicon and silicone production has increased. The resumption of supply will impact the supply - demand balance, and the futures price is expected to be weak in the short term [9]. - For polysilicon, the national weekly production has increased, downstream silicon wafer production is on the rise, but market sentiment has cooled. The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. - Regarding lithium carbonate, the mine - end production halt has been confirmed, and if there is rectification and resumption after compliance, considering the large downstream inventory and supplementary supply from surrounding mines, the impact on the balance sheet is limited. Market sentiment may trigger downstream stocking, and the price is expected to be strong in the short term [87]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Non - ferrous and New Energy Price Monitoring - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The current values, daily, weekly, and annual price changes of various non - ferrous metals such as the US Dollar Index, exchange rate, Shanghai and London copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. are presented. For example, the US Dollar Index is 98.267, with a daily increase of 0.18%, a weekly decrease of 0.43%, and an annual decrease of 9.42%. Industrial silicon is priced at 8710 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 0.64%, a weekly increase of 2.47%, and an annual decrease of 20.71% [6]. 3.2 Part Two: Industrial Silicon (SI) and Polysilicon (PS) 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon (SI) - **Supply**: The national weekly production is 8.35 tons, a 6.16% increase from the previous week, and the number of open furnaces is 270, an increase of 8 from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan has all increased to varying degrees [9]. - **Demand**: Downstream polysilicon and silicone weekly production has increased. Polysilicon weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week, and silicone DMC weekly production is 5.12 tons, a 7.11% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Inventory**: The explicit inventory is 69.16 tons, a 0.40% decrease from the previous week; the industry inventory is 43.99 tons, a 0.92% decrease from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory is 25.17 tons, a 0.52% increase from the previous week [9]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 9100 yuan, a 0.1% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 120 yuan, an increase of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week. In major production areas, the average profit per ton in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan is 567, 86, and 187 yuan respectively, with changes of - 25, + 52, and + 37 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to be weak in the short term due to the expansion of supply and hedging pressure [9]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon (PS) - **Production**: The national weekly production is 2.84 tons, a 2.57% increase from the previous week. In major production areas, production in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan is 1.09, 0.45, 0.29, and 0.40 tons respectively, with a 1.02% increase in Inner Mongolia and no change in the other three regions [10]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.58GW, a 6.24% increase from the previous week, and the factory inventory is 17.78GW, a 1.93% decrease from the previous week [10]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory is 27.34 tons, a 0.87% decrease from the previous week, and the registered warehouse receipts are 10860 tons, a 13.13% increase from the previous week [10]. - **Cost and Profit**: The national average cost per ton is 41323 yuan, a 0.03% decrease from the previous week, and the profit per ton is 3878 yuan, an increase of 461 yuan from the previous week [10]. - **Investment View**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, with cost support and large - factory price - holding at the lower end and downstream weakness and hedging pressure at the upper end [10]. 3.3 Part Three: Lithium Carbonate (LC) - **Supply**: The national high - yield is 1.96 tons, a 13.25% increase from the previous week. Lithium extraction from spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lakes has all increased, with weekly productions of 11182, 4410, and 2442 tons respectively, and increases of 5.25%, 35.07%, and 20.18% from the previous week [87]. - **Import**: In June, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 1.7 tons, a 16.31% decrease from the previous month and a 9.63% decrease from the previous year. The import volume of lithium concentrate was 42.76 tons, a 17.25% decrease from the previous month and an 18.15% decrease from the previous year [87]. - **Demand**: The weekly production of iron - phosphate - based materials decreased by 10.87% to 6.17 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.99% to 9.46 tons. The weekly production of ternary - based materials increased by 8.66% to 1.75 tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.36% to 1.66 tons. In June, the production of new energy vehicles was 226.77 million vehicles, a 0.14% decrease from the previous month, and the sales volume was 132.92 million vehicles, a 1.68% increase from the previous month [87]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory (including warehouse receipts) is 14.24 tons, a 0.49% increase from the previous week. The lithium - salt factory inventory decreased by 1.85% to 5.10 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1.84% to 9.14 tons. The warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 239.57% to 1.88 tons [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased lepidolite is 75753 yuan/ton, a 0.61% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is - 7557 yuan/ton, a 422 - yuan decrease from the previous week. The cash production cost of lithium extraction from purchased spodumene is 68214 yuan/ton, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week, and the production profit is 1863 yuan/ton, a 212 - yuan decrease from the previous week [87]. - **Investment View**: The price is expected to be strong in the short term due to the mine - end production halt and potential downstream stocking [87].

Core Viewpoint - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) saw its stock price rise over 4%, reaching HKD 1.19 with a trading volume of HKD 411 million, following the announcement of energy consumption regulations for the polysilicon industry by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology [1] Industry Summary - On August 1, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice regarding the 2025 energy-saving inspection tasks for the polysilicon industry, involving 41 companies. The comprehensive energy consumption limits for polysilicon products may be lowered, potentially accelerating the elimination of high-cost production capacity [1] - According to CICC, if these requirements are strictly enforced, high-cost production capacity is expected to be rapidly phased out. The tightening of polysilicon energy consumption standards and the new green electricity consumption ratio requirements are favorable for granular silicon [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that due to ongoing efforts against internal competition and industry self-discipline, the price of silicon materials continues to rise. The complete cost for leading silicon material companies is estimated to be between CNY 42,000 to CNY 51,000 per ton, with a current spot price of CNY 45,000 per ton, resulting in a profit of CNY 3,000 per ton for leading companies [1] - The current round of internal competition is being driven from the top down, and under strong constraints, it is expected that price increases will not lead to a rise in silicon material operating rates. Therefore, under the expectations of industry self-discipline and internal competition, silicon material prices are likely to stabilize at the CNY 45,000 per ton level [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish outlook on polysilicon, suggesting it is likely to experience strong fluctuations. It recommends a strategy of buying on dips, with a focus on the polysilicon futures market [3][5]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, both supply and demand of polysilicon are increasing, but the supply growth rate is higher, leading to inventory accumulation pressure. If there are new developments in capacity integration or exit, polysilicon prices may rise again; otherwise, they may fluctuate downward under inventory and warrant pressure [3][5]. - The anti - involution policy has supported the increase in polysilicon prices, and the industry is expected to shift from "scale expansion" to "quality development." The sustainability of price increases and their downstream transmission are key factors, and capacity integration and output regulation are important for the industry's sustainable development [30][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Periodic and Spot Price Trends - **Spot Price Trend Review**: Guided by the anti - involution policy, polysilicon prices remained stable, with an average price of about 47,200 yuan/ton. The average prices of various types of polysilicon, such as N - type recompounded materials, were stable, and the transaction prices showed a slight increase [7][8]. - **Spot Trend Analysis**: The price difference between PS2511 and PS2512 contracts is large, mainly because the warrants of the 11 - contract will be centrally cancelled upon expiration [9]. - **Futures Contract Price Trend**: The price of the main contract PS2511 increased by 3.23% to 50,790 yuan/ton [3][5]. 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply Side**: In August, polysilicon production is expected to reach 125,000 - 130,000 tons, with the weekly output increasing by 11% to 29,400 tons. There are 9 polysilicon enterprises in production this week, with one resuming production and another entering maintenance. The proportion of N - type polysilicon and granular silicon is increasing, and the industry is expected to see capacity integration and exit [18][19][21]. - **Demand Side**: Downstream product prices, such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, have increased to varying degrees, and demand has slightly recovered. Overseas demand may also increase. The weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 1.02GW to 12.02GW, an increase of about 9%. The output of battery cells and components in August is expected to increase slightly [5][32][49]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There is an oversupply situation, and inventory is expected to accumulate. The weekly output of polysilicon increased by 11%, while the weekly output of silicon wafers increased by 9%, slightly lower than the growth rate of polysilicon [5]. 3.3 Cost and Profit - The cost of polysilicon may increase due to the rise in raw material prices such as coal and industrial silicon. The increase in polysilicon prices is beneficial for profit repair in the photovoltaic industry, but the cost pressure will be transmitted to terminal installation enterprises. The acceptance of price increases by downstream power stations needs attention [68]. 3.4 Import and Export - The report provides data on China's polysilicon, monocrystalline silicon wafer, polycrystalline silicon wafer, battery cell, and component import and export volumes, but no specific analysis of trends is provided [71][81][97]. 3.5 Inventory - This week, polysilicon inventory increased by 0.4 tons to 233,000 tons, and warrants increased by 380 lots to 3,580 lots, equivalent to 10,740 tons. As prices rise above full cost, warrants are expected to further increase [5][105][106].