1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual outlooks for each metal: - Copper: Expected to show an oscillating pattern [8][9] - Alumina: Under pressure and expected to oscillate [10] - Aluminum: Expected to oscillate and decline in the short - term, with a range - bound trend [12][13] - Aluminum Alloy: Expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14] - Zinc: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term and decline in the long - term [15][16] - Lead: Expected to oscillate [17][18] - Nickel: Expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21] - Stainless Steel: Expected to maintain a range - bound trend in the short - term [24] - Tin: Expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The overall demand for non - ferrous metals is gradually weakening, and prices are under pressure to oscillate. In the short - to - medium term, the weak US dollar supports prices, but the demand - weakening risk is increasing. In the long term, potential domestic stimulus policies and supply disruptions in some metals support prices. For specific metals, their prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply - demand relationships, and policy changes [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Viewpoint**: Sino - US tariff suspension extension leads to high - level oscillation of copper prices. - **Analysis**: Sino - US suspend 24% tariffs for 90 days; Fed keeps interest rates unchanged; copper production increases; spot premiums decline; inventory rises. - **Logic**: Macro - level risk preference rises, but raw material supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season with limited inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Copper may oscillate due to supply constraints, low inventory, weakening demand, and potential tariff impacts [8][9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices decline slightly, and warehouse receipts increase, leading to pressure on alumina prices to oscillate. - **Analysis**: Spot prices in various regions decline slightly; overseas transactions occur; warehouse receipts increase. - **Logic**: Smelter production capacity recovers, resulting in an oversupply and increasing inventory. - **Outlook**: Consider shorting at high levels based on warehouse receipt changes [10]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Spot prices are at a discount, and aluminum prices oscillate and decline. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and corporate performance are presented. - **Logic**: US retail data is weak, and domestic economic data slows. Supply is stable, while demand is in the off - season, and inventory accumulates. - **Outlook**: Observe short - term consumption and inventory accumulation, with prices expected to range - bound [12][13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Tax refund policy tightening leads to oscillating prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, production project information, and policy changes are provided. - **Logic**: Supply and demand are both weak. Supply is affected by policy tightening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term, with potential for price spread recovery [13][14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Declining ferrous metal prices lead to oscillating and declining zinc prices. - **Analysis**: Spot prices, inventory changes, and new project information are given. - **Logic**: Macro - level is slightly negative. Supply is loosening, and demand is in the off - season. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term and decline in the long - term [16][17]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Viewpoint**: Stable cost support leads to oscillating lead prices. - **Analysis**: Price data, inventory changes, and market supply - demand conditions are presented. - **Logic**: Spot premiums are stable, supply and demand are both weak, and cost support is strong. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate due to economic data and supply - demand balance [17][18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Viewpoint**: Fluctuating market sentiment leads to wide - range oscillation of nickel prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes, new policies, and corporate events are provided. - **Logic**: Market sentiment dominates, and fundamental factors are weakening. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term and hold a short position in the long - term [19][21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Significant increase in warehouse receipts leads to continued price correction. - **Analysis**: Warehouse receipt changes, spot prices, and new policies are given. - **Logic**: Cost increases, production declines, and inventory shows a structural surplus. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to range - bound in the short - term, depending on demand, inventory, and cost [24]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Viewpoint**: Declining Indonesian refined tin exports lead to high - level oscillation of tin prices. - **Analysis**: Inventory changes and spot prices are presented. - **Logic**: Supply is tight, but demand weakens in the second half of the year. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate, with increased volatility possible in August [25][26]. 3.2行情监测 The report provides information on the performance of the non - ferrous metals index, including today's, recent 5 - day, recent 1 - month, and year - to - date changes, showing a decline in the short - term and an increase since the beginning of the year [143].

证券日报网讯 8月19日晚间，永茂泰发布公告称，2025年半年度公司实现营业收入2，619，439，927.18 元，同比增长51.66%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为19，769，596.87元，同比下降44.27%。 （编辑 何成浩） ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [6]. Core Views - The company's revenue for H1 2025 reached 20.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.1%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.90 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.6% year-on-year [1]. - The report highlights that the performance was primarily impacted by coal prices, while the electrolytic aluminum segment saw both volume and price increases [1][2]. - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 5.18 billion yuan, 6.20 billion yuan, and 6.57 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 times [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company produced 871,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, a 16.2% increase year-on-year, and achieved a market price of 20,300 yuan per ton, up 2.6% year-on-year [2]. - The coal segment produced 3.708 million tons, a 14.9% increase year-on-year, but the selling price dropped to 773 yuan per ton, a decline of 30.6% [3]. - The company reported investment income of 250 million yuan in H1 2025, mainly due to increased profits from associated companies [3]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the cost advantages of electrolytic aluminum production in Xinjiang due to stable electricity prices and low coal prices, which are expected to enhance profitability [4]. - The company is positioned to benefit from a recovery in coal prices, which could reduce the performance drag from the coal segment [3][4]. - The low valuation and high earnings elasticity of the company are expected to catalyze stock price appreciation [4].

Core Viewpoint - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group reported a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.94% to 1.44 billion yuan due to increased tax expenses from adjustments in overseas subsidiary dividend arrangements [1][2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025: 76.08 billion yuan, up 6.39% from the previous year [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 1.44 billion yuan, down 33.94% year-on-year [1][2]. - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains: 1.43 billion yuan, a decrease of 35.19% [2]. - Operating cash flow: 379 million yuan, down 83.36% [2]. - Basic earnings per share: 0.11 yuan, down 35.29% [2]. - Total assets at the end of the reporting period: 90.84 billion yuan, an increase of 12.22% from the previous year [2]. Profitability Metrics - Gross margin for the first half: 7.96%, down 0.57 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Net margin for the first half: 2.02%, down 1.88 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Second quarter gross margin: 8.22%, down 0.49 percentage points year-on-year, but up 0.56 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. - Second quarter net margin: 0.47%, down 3.18 percentage points year-on-year and down 3.34 percentage points from the first quarter [3]. Cost Management - Total period expenses: 1.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.79 billion yuan year-on-year [3]. - Period expense ratio: 1.62%, down 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Sales expenses decreased by 11.66%, while management expenses increased by 5.47% [3]. - R&D expenses decreased by 7.51%, and financial expenses decreased significantly by 59.14% [3]. Strategic Outlook - The company plans to leverage its technical and management advantages to enhance efficiency and control costs for stable operations [3]. - It aims to strengthen market analysis, optimize production capacity, and implement a cost leadership strategy [3]. - The company will closely monitor domestic and international environmental changes to effectively respond to various risks and challenges [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, indicating a potential upside of over 15% relative to the benchmark index [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 76.08 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 33.94% to 1.441 billion yuan [1]. - The copper price remained stable, but the spot TC (treatment charge) significantly decreased, while sulfuric acid prices surged [2]. - The company’s smelting profits showed resilience, primarily due to contributions from by-products, despite a notable decline in copper processing fees [2]. - A one-time tax expense adjustment led to a significant drop in reported profits, but the underlying operational performance remains stable when adjusted [3]. - The company is focused on strengthening its copper industry chain, with the Mirador copper mine's second phase expected to enhance self-sufficiency and production capacity [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 40.858 billion yuan, reflecting a 5.33% year-on-year increase and a 16.00% quarter-on-quarter increase. However, the quarterly net profit dropped to 312 million yuan, a decrease of 71.23% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s net profit forecast for 2025-2027 is projected to be 3.789 billion yuan, 4.694 billion yuan, and 5.715 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14x, 12x, and 10x [4][5]. Market Conditions - The average price of electrolytic copper in Q2 2025 was 77,000 yuan/ton, showing a slight increase from Q1 2025, while the average price of sulfuric acid rose significantly [2]. - The copper concentrate TC spot index averaged -8.68 and -40.67 USD/ton in Q2 and Q1 2025, respectively, indicating a substantial year-on-year decrease [2]. Strategic Outlook - The company is advancing its copper-based new materials project and expects to enhance smelting capacity, benefiting from its geographical advantages [3]. - The Mirador copper mine is projected to produce 155,000 tons of copper in 2024, with further increases expected upon the completion of the second phase in 2025 [3].

2024年1至12月份，永茂泰的营业收入构成为：铝合金业务占比72.79%，汽车零部件业务占比24.89%， 其他业务占比2.33%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 永茂泰（SH 605208，收盘价：15.83元）8月19日晚间发布公告称，公司第三届第十六次董事会会议于 2025年8月19日在上海市青浦区练塘镇章练塘路577号永茂泰公司会议室以现场结合通讯方式召开。会议 审议了《2025年半年度报告及摘要》等文件。 ...

Group 1 - The event was a specialized training on futures business organized by the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, Shanghai Futures Exchange, and Jinchuan Group [1] - Experts from various organizations discussed trends in copper and nickel-cobalt industry policies, price analysis, and market conditions [1] - The training included topics on how state-owned enterprises can utilize options and derivatives for stable operations, internal control and compliance for central enterprises, and disclosure rules for listed companies participating in futures trading [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1][5] - Alumina: なな女 [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: 文文文 [1] - Zinc: ななな [1][3] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1][6] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1][7] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1][8] - Industrial Silicon: ななな [1][9] - Polysilicon: な女女 [1][10] Core Views - The copper market is still cautiously evaluating economic growth risks and paying attention to the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting this week. It is inclined that the resistance to trading above the copper market is significant, and short positions above 79,000 yuan should be held [1]. - The Shanghai aluminum market fluctuates narrowly. The peak of inventory accumulation in the off - season may be approaching, and the inventory is likely to be at a low level this year. It is mainly in short - term shock, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - In the first half of 2025, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand. It is necessary to be vigilant against the repeated macro - sentiment [3]. - The consumption peak season of aluminum is not prosperous, but the cost side has strong support for the price. It is advisable to hold long positions at 16,600 yuan/ton and pay attention to the opportunity of the last trading days of call options [5]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The Shanghai nickel is in the middle and late stage of the rebound, and short positions should be actively intervened [6]. - The Shanghai tin rose in the afternoon session and regained the MA40 moving average. The low overseas inventory and spot premium support the London tin [7]. - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The short - term long - position thinking should be adopted, and risk control should be done well [8]. - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. The main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. There is an opportunity to go long near 50,000 yuan/ton, but there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Copper - On Tuesday, Shanghai copper reduced its positions and continued to fluctuate in a narrow range. Technically, pay attention to the support toughness of the MA60 moving average. The domestic spot copper is 79,100 yuan, and the Shanghai premium slightly shrinks to 195 yuan [1]. Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates narrowly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. At the beginning of the week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 19,000 tons compared with Thursday, and the aluminum rods decreased by 6,000 tons. The downstream start - up is stable [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, and the industry inventory and SHFE warehouse receipts are both rising. Supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the spot index in various places is falling [2]. Zinc - In 2025H1, the zinc ore output of major overseas mining enterprises increased by more than 12% year - on - year. The demand off - season is obvious. The zinc market is dominated by the fundamentals of increasing supply and weak demand [3]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - This week, the stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks, but the downstream acceptance of high - price stainless - steel is still poor. The supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated and rose in the afternoon session, regaining the MA40 moving average. Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3,792 tons, a 15% month - on - month decrease [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuates, and the market trading is active. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures fluctuate downward. During the wet season, the supply and demand of industrial silicon both increase, and the improvement of the fundamentals is limited [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed down in shock. The terminal and downstream demand is stable, while the polysilicon production schedule has increased significantly, and the high - inventory pattern suppresses the spot quotation [10].

近日，陕西省2024年度科学技术奖揭晓，金钼集团"大规格高性能钼基靶材制备关键技术及应用"项目一举夺得科技进步一等奖。该项目攻克大规格高性能钼 基靶材生产关键技术，实现国产化替代，推动中国钼靶材加工技术迈入世界先进行列。 钼作为战略性关键材料，广泛应用于航空航天、高清显示、医疗诊断等重要领域。我国虽是全球钼资源最丰富的国家，但高端领域应用的部分钼制品长期依 赖进口，大规格高性能钼基靶材作为高清显示行业的关键核心材料，加工技术也亟待突破。 为破解技术难题，金钼集团项目团队历经12年攻关，在钼粉制备、靶材成型、精密加工等关键环节实现三大突破：一是首创"协同还原"，开发全流程智能控 制钼粉生产技术；二是创新"粉末充填-杂质分步逸出"技术，制备出超大单重细晶高致密均质化钼靶坯，性能达到国际领先水平；三是建立大规格高性能钼 责任编辑：安心 审核：杨勇 目前，该项目已建成全球最大高纯钼粉及钼基靶材生产线，核心技术获授权发明专利53项，牵头制定国家标准2项，发表SCI论文49篇，整体技术被评价 为"国际领先水平"。 此次突破不仅实现了国产化替代，更探索出"研发-转化-应用"全链条创新模式，为我国新材料领域自主创新提供了成功 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the macro - sentiment continued to show a rise in risk appetite. Although domestic economic and financial data were poor, the stock market sentiment remained high. In the copper market, downstream orders had support around 7.8, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the stimulation of refined copper consumption. In August, a small - scale inventory build - up was expected, but the market might focus on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increased slightly, and August was a seasonal off - season for demand, with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late August. Aluminum exports improved month - on - month, while photovoltaic demand declined, and overseas demand dropped significantly. An inventory build - up was expected in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. - The zinc price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic TC was hard to rise, and imported TC increased. In August, the increase in smelting production was further realized. On the demand side, domestic demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and overseas European demand was average. There might be a phased supply shortage. Domestically, social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Short - term, it was recommended to wait and see; medium - and long - term, a short - position configuration was suggested. Internal - external positive arbitrage could be held, and attention could be paid to positive arbitrage opportunities in spreads [6]. - In the nickel market, pure nickel production remained at a high level, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. The short - term fundamental situation was average, and the macro - environment was mainly about anti - involution policy games. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio could be continuously monitored [7]. - For stainless steel, some steel mills cut production passively, and demand was mainly for rigid needs, with some inventory replenishment due to the macro - environment. Nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices remained stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. The fundamental situation was weak, and attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. - The lead price fluctuated this week. On the supply side, scrap volume was weak year - on - year, and recycled lead production was low due to tight scrap batteries and low profits. On the demand side, battery inventory was high, and the market was not prosperous in the peak season. Although there was an improvement in orders in July - August, terminal consumption and lead ingot procurement were weak. It was expected that the lead price would remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. - The tin price fluctuated widely this week. On the supply side, domestic smelting production might decline slightly in July - August, and overseas, there were signals of复产 in Wa State, but the specific quantity needed to be observed. On the demand side, solder demand was limited, and terminal electronic and photovoltaic growth was expected to decline. Domestic inventory increased, and overseas LME inventory was low with a risk of short - squeeze. Short - term, it was recommended to short lightly at high prices; medium - and long - term, hold at low prices near the cost line [15]. - In the industrial silicon market, the start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was 59, and the resumption of production was less than expected. Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction. In the short - term, if either Southwest or Hesheng reached full production, the market would turn to oversupply. In the long - term, the industrial silicon capacity was still in large - scale surplus, and the price was expected to fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. - The lithium carbonate market was strong this week due to factors such as inventory reduction data and the expected impact of CITIC Guoan's start - up. Upstream lithium salt producers were willing to sell, downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The core contradiction was the long - term over - capacity and short - term resource - end compliance disturbances. In the short - term, the lithium carbonate price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the Shanghai copper spot price increased by 20, the premium changed by 150, the scrap - refined copper price difference remained unchanged, the SHFE inventory increased by 938, the SHFE copper warrant increased by 16.47, the spot import profit decreased by 9.08, the three - month import profit decreased by 3.00, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the bill of lading premium decreased by 2, the LME C - 3M decreased by 3, the LME inventory decreased by 200, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 150 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The macro - sentiment was positive, downstream orders had support, and the spot market was active. The domestic tax subsidy policy for scrap copper might be restricted, and attention should be paid to the impact on refined copper consumption. An inventory build - up was expected in August, but the post - off - season tight - balance pattern was more concerning [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the aluminum bonded premium remained unchanged, the difference between Shanghai aluminum spot and the main contract remained unchanged, the spot import profit increased by 43.58, the three - month import profit increased by 28.61, the aluminum C - 3M decreased by 1.84, the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 25, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 50 [2][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased slightly, August was a demand off - season, and an inventory build - up was expected. Attention should be paid to demand and far - month spreads and internal - external reverse arbitrage in the low - inventory pattern [3]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 150, the zinc social inventory remained unchanged, the SHFE zinc inventory remained unchanged, the Shanghai zinc spot import profit increased by 248.87, the Shanghai zinc futures import profit increased by 221.22, the zinc bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 4, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 475, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 475 [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The zinc price fluctuated widely. Supply increased, demand was seasonally weak but had some resilience, and there might be a phased supply shortage. Domestic social inventory rose, and overseas LME inventory decreased rapidly. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [6]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 100, the Jinchuan premium remained unchanged, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 50, the spot import return decreased by 20.42, the futures import return remained unchanged, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M increased by 13 [7]. - **Market Analysis**: Pure nickel production was high, demand was weak, and domestic and overseas nickel plate inventories remained stable. Attention should be paid to opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [7]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 50, the price of 430 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel remained unchanged [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand was mainly for rigid needs with some inventory replenishment, nickel - iron and chrome - iron prices were stable, and inventories in Xijiao and Foshan decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to future policy trends [10]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot premium remained unchanged, the Shanghai - Henan price difference decreased by 25, the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained unchanged, the 1 recycled lead price difference increased by 25, the social inventory data had no significant change, the SHFE inventory remained unchanged, the spot import return increased by 75.86, the futures import return increased by 70.81, the bonded warehouse premium remained unchanged, the LME C - 3M decreased by 1, the LME lead inventory decreased by 625, and the LME cancelled warrant increased by 675 [11]. - **Market Analysis**: The lead price fluctuated. Supply was affected by scrap volume and production costs, demand was not strong in the peak season, and an inventory build - up was expected. The lead price was expected to remain in a low - level fluctuation next week [11][13]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the spot import return increased by 1187.76, the spot export return decreased by 1192.25, the tin position decreased by 647, the LME C - 3M increased by 26, the LME tin inventory remained unchanged, and the LME cancelled warrant decreased by 20 [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The tin price fluctuated widely. Supply might decline slightly domestically, and overseas production resumption was uncertain. Demand was limited, and there was a risk of short - squeeze in the overseas market. Different trading strategies were recommended for different time horizons [15]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the 421 Yunnan basis increased by 200, the 421 Sichuan basis increased by 200, the 553 East China basis increased by 200, the 553 Tianjin basis increased by 200, and the number of warrants increased by 111 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The start - up rate of Xinjiang's leading enterprises was less than expected, Sichuan and Yunnan's start - up rates increased slightly. In August, there was a small - scale inventory reduction, and the market was expected to turn to oversupply if production increased. In the long - term, the capacity was in surplus, and the price would fluctuate at the cycle bottom [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From August 12 to August 18, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 1900, the main contract basis decreased by 440, the near - month contract basis increased by 1900, and the number of warrants increased by 70 [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The market was strong this week due to multiple factors. Upstream was willing to sell, downstream procurement was for rigid needs with stronger inventory - replenishment intention, and trading among traders was more active. The short - term price had high upward elasticity and strong downward support [17].