Investment and Production Indicators - The overall performance of investment-related high-frequency data in the first week after the holiday was weaker than the same period last year, with only the full steel and semi-steel tire operating rates better than last year's levels[2] - The operating rate for asphalt sample enterprises was 21.4%, up 0.6 percentage points week-on-week, but down 24.9% year-on-year[9] - The national electric furnace operating rate was 26.28%, down 5.77 percentage points week-on-week, and down 53.4% year-on-year[11] - The capacity utilization rate for steel mills was 86.09%, down 0.24 percentage points week-on-week, and down 1.1% year-on-year[44] Production and Price Trends - The average daily crude steel production in mid-February was 2.029 million tons, an increase of 83,000 tons from early February, but down 5.7% year-on-year[72] - The price index for rebar fell by 0.3 yuan/ton to 3288.2 yuan/ton[116] - The average price of cement in East China remained stable at 412 yuan/ton, while the price in Southwest China dropped by 8 yuan/ton to 485 yuan/ton[107] - The average price of lithium carbonate rose to 167,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 27,000 yuan/ton year-on-year, reflecting a growth of 118.3%[142] Real Estate and Consumption Insights - The number of signed commercial housing contracts in 30 cities was still lower than the same period last year, despite a positive trend in second-hand housing listing prices starting from the second week of January[2] - Domestic and international flight numbers post-holiday were higher than last year, with domestic flights exceeding 100,000 for four consecutive weeks, indicating a recovery in travel demand[2] - Consumer demand for goods and services during the holiday period was better than last year, suggesting a significant increase in consumption growth for the first two months compared to the previous year[2]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.39%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.06%[3] - The CSI 300 Index fell by 0.34%, and the ChiNext Index rose by 0.15%[3] - The top-performing sectors included steel (+3.37%), coal (+3.20%), and non-ferrous metals (+3.10%) while construction materials (-1.45%) and telecommunications (-1.38%) lagged behind[3] Key Events - The Central Political Bureau discussed the 14th Five-Year Plan, emphasizing high-quality development and economic stability[5] - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0% starting March 2, 2026, signaling a focus on stabilizing the RMB exchange rate[6] Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to continue its mixed performance, with resource stocks and AI applications as key highlights[7] - Rare metals and coal sectors are anticipated to benefit from rising prices, while hardware sectors may face adjustments due to external factors[8] - Investors are advised to focus on sectors with strong performance certainty and to be cautious of increased volatility in sector rotations[8] Risk Factors - Potential risks include weaker-than-expected overseas demand, intensified geopolitical tensions, and volatility in commodity prices[9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★☆★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] 2. Core Views - The steel market is mainly in shock, with the demand and inventory of different products showing different trends, and the rebound sustainability is insufficient [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly in shock, affected by factors such as global shipments, domestic arrivals, and terminal demand [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are both in a strong shock, with abundant carbon element supply, and the prices are difficult to decline significantly under the influence of market sentiment and policy expectations [4][6] - The silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets are both in an upward shock, affected by factors such as cost, demand, and policy expectations [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The post-festival thread steel apparent demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains low, and inventory continues to accumulate; hot-rolled coil demand rebounds month-on-month, production remains stable, and inventory continues to accumulate with relatively high pressure [2] - After the festival, blast furnace resumes production, and hot metal production increases, but the steel mill profit is still poor, and the subsequent rebound rhythm may be relatively slow [2] - The real estate investment decline continues to expand, and the new house sales during the Spring Festival are poor; the infrastructure and manufacturing investment growth rates continue to decline, and the domestic demand is still weak, while the steel export remains at a high level [2] - The steel plate gradually stabilizes, but the rebound sustainability is relatively insufficient, and there may still be fluctuations in the short term [2] Iron Ore - The global shipments of iron ore are at a high level and increase month-on-month, slightly lower than the same period last year; the domestic arrivals are basically the same as the previous period and higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory returns to near the high point of the year [3] - After the festival, the terminal demand warms up, and the hot metal production increases, but the resumption of production of steel mills may be affected by the important domestic meeting [3] - The external geopolitical conflict intensifies, and attention should be paid to the change of the overall risk preference of the market [3] Coke - The coking profit is average, and the daily output increases slightly; the coke inventory decreases slightly, and the purchasing intention of traders is average [4] - The carbon element supply is abundant, the downstream hot metal remains at the off-season level, and the steel profit level is average [4] - The coke plate is at a premium, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [4] Coking Coal - The daily price is in a strong shock, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal yesterday was 1,346 vehicles [6] - Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of coal mines. The production of coking coal mines has decreased significantly in the early stage [6] - The spot auction transactions increase gradually this week, and the transaction price mainly decreases slightly on the basis of the shock decline of the plate price; the terminal inventory decreases significantly, and there may be a certain degree of replenishment after the Spring Festival [6] - The total inventory of coking coal decreases significantly, and the production end inventory decreases significantly [6] - The coking coal plate is at a premium to Mongolian coal, and the market still has expectations for the "anti-involution" related policies. The customs clearance data of Mongolian coal recovers rapidly. Under the influence of the overall market sentiment, the price is difficult to decline significantly [6] Silicon Manganese - The international conflict has a positive impact on the crude oil price, which in turn affects the manganese ore shipping cost, which is relatively beneficial to the cost side of silicon manganese [7] - The spot manganese ore transaction price increases slightly, the manganese ore port inventory begins to accumulate, and the mine end shipment increases month-on-month, but the mine cost has increased compared with previous years, and the price concession space may be relatively limited [7] - The hot metal production on the demand side increases slowly, the weekly output of silicon manganese increases slightly, and it is difficult to see a significant decline driver [7] - The silicon manganese inventory accumulates slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [7] Ferrosilicon - The electricity price in the Inner Mongolia production area increases, the semi-coke price decreases slightly, and the main production area is still mainly in a loss state [8] - The hot metal production on the demand side remains at the off-season level, the export demand remains above 30,000 tons, and the marginal impact is not significant [8] - The metal magnesium production increases month-on-month, the secondary demand increases marginally, and the overall demand still has toughness [8] - The ferrosilicon supply changes little, the inventory decreases slightly, and the market has strong expectations for the next month's meeting policy [8]

Investment Rating - The steel and non-ferrous metals sector is rated as "Overweight" (Maintain) [5] Core Insights - The steel sector is experiencing a seasonal rally, with high-frequency data indicating a potential recovery in profitability towards historical average levels due to tightening export policies and supply-side adjustments [4][19] - The liquidity indicators show a significant increase in SPDR Gold ETF holdings, reaching a five-year high, which may influence market sentiment [10][15] - The construction and real estate sectors are showing signs of improvement, with high furnace capacity utilization rates expected to be at the highest level for the same period in five years [19][40] Summary by Relevant Sections Liquidity - SPDR Gold ETF holdings reached 1101.33 tons, up 2.09% week-on-week [10] - The total liabilities of the Federal Reserve are at $6.57 trillion, reflecting a 0.01% increase [10] - The M1 and M2 growth rate difference was -4.1 percentage points in January 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.6 percentage points [15] Infrastructure and Real Estate Chain - The national high furnace capacity utilization rate is at 87.45%, up 1.04 percentage points week-on-week [40] - The price of rebar is at 3200 CNY/ton, down 0.31% week-on-week, with a production of 1.6723 million tons [40] - The national cement price index decreased by 0.08%, while the cement operating rate increased by 13.5 percentage points [59] Industrial Products Chain - The national PMI new orders index for January was 49.20% [2] - The price of tungsten concentrate has surpassed 800,000 CNY/ton, reflecting a 15.27% increase week-on-week [2] - The price of electrolytic aluminum is at 23,350 CNY/ton, with a profit margin of 6,266 CNY/ton [2] Price Relationships - The price difference between hot-rolled and rebar is at 50 CNY/ton, indicating a stable market condition [3] - The price ratio of rebar to iron ore is 4.13, suggesting a competitive pricing environment [3] - The price of stainless steel hot-rolled and electrolytic nickel is at a ratio of 0.09, indicating market dynamics [3] Export Chain - The new export orders PMI for January was 47.80%, down 1.2 percentage points [3] - The CCFI composite index for container shipping rates is at 1044.57 points, down 4.00% [3] - The U.S. crude steel capacity utilization rate is at 78.50%, up 0.70 percentage points [3] Valuation Metrics - The CSI 300 index increased by 1.08%, with the best-performing sector being the general steel sector, which rose by 12.27% [4] - The PB ratio of the general steel sector relative to the CSI 300 is currently at 0.55, with historical highs reaching 0.82 [4] - The comprehensive gross profit of the steel industry is at 136 CNY/ton, reflecting a 5.9% decrease week-on-week [9]

宏观有所预期，钢价震荡运行 （5）总结： 钢厂盈利率39.83%，环比上升1.3%; 铁水产量233.38万吨，环比增加2.79万吨。 钢材周报 20260302 周贵升 从业资格证：F3036194 投资咨询证：Z0015986 段怡雯 从业资格证：F03131526 成材：宏观有所预期，钢价震荡运行 （1）供给：钢材产量下降，全国主要钢厂螺纹钢当周产量为165.1万吨（-5.28），热轧当周产量为309.61万吨（-0.2）。 （2） 需求：钢材需求仍需恢复，处于低位。上周螺纹表观需求为33.55万吨（-7.61），热轧表观需求268.37万吨(+21.64）。 （3）库存： 螺纹库存持续累积，幅度放缓，热卷库存增至高位。 螺纹钢总库存800.6万吨(+84.56），社会库存567.76万吨(+72.79)，钢厂库存232.84万吨(+11.77); 热轧总库存452.15万吨(+18.3),社会库存357.37万吨(+16.9)，钢厂库存94.78万吨(+1.4)。 （4）基差：截至2月27日，螺纹主力合约基差143元/吨（-22），热轧主力合约基差15元/吨（-3）。 高炉开工率80.22%，环比上升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - For steel products, short - term policy expectations support the market, but weak fundamentals limit the upside. Wait for policy implementation after the Two Sessions and inventory depletion speed [3] - For iron ore, in March, during the Two Sessions and macro - fluctuation window period, market expectation volatility is expected to increase. Current economic stimulus expectations are low, and demand is pessimistic. Pay attention to the possibility of expectation differences. Valuation is low, and beware of capital re - allocation [21] - For coal and coke, from March to April, it's the terminal demand verification period. Considering the late Spring Festival this year, the post - holiday resumption of work may be slow. If there is a combination of "exceeding - expected resumption of domestic mines" and "weakening macro - sentiment", coal and coke prices may face significant downward pressure [32] - For ferroalloys, in the short term, silicon - manganese prices are supported by manganese ore news, but later, due to sentiment release and high - inventory suppression, there is a drive for hedging in the industrial end. Silicon - iron has good fundamentals and cost support, but limited upside due to weak black downstream fundamentals [47] - For soda ash, the current rigid demand is stable. There are ignition expectations in the float glass end and new ignition production lines in photovoltaic glass. Some manufacturers are expected to have maintenance, which will affect production. The Spring Festival inventory accumulation is slightly lower than expected. The upside and downside price spaces are limited, waiting for further accumulation of industrial contradictions [64] - For glass, the actual demand has not returned, and the production and sales are temporarily weak. The market is in the initial recovery stage. High mid - stream inventory and supply return expectations limit the upside, and demand needs to be verified [88] 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3131, 3067, and 3105 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3259, 3219, and 3238 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Spreads**: Rebar 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 64, - 38, - 26 yuan/ton; hot - rolled coil 01 - 05, 05 - 10, 10 - 01 month - spreads were 40, - 19, - 21 yuan/ton [4] - **Spot and Basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and basis in different regions changed slightly from February 28 to March 2, 2026 [9][11] - **Ratios**: 01, 05, 10 rebar/iron ore ratios were 4; 01, 05, 10 rebar/coke ratios were 2 [18] Iron Ore - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 01, 05, 09 iron ore contracts were 721.5, 754.5, 733.5 yuan/ton respectively. The basis of 01, 05, 09 contracts were 34, 2.5, 22 yuan/ton respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of February 27, 2026, the daily average pig iron output was 233.28 tons, 45 - port throughput was 298.48 tons, and 45 - port inventory was 17091.96 tons [26] Coal and Coke - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coking coal were - 193, - 95.5, 288.5 yuan/ton; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, 01 - 05 month - spreads of coke were - 91.5, - 79, 170.5 yuan/ton [33][35] - **Spot and Profits**: Spot prices of various types of coking coal and coke were stable on March 2, 2026. The immediate coking profit was - 3 yuan/ton [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was - 176 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron spot prices in different regions increased to varying degrees [48] - **Silicon - manganese**: On March 2, 2026, the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 18 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese spot prices in different regions also increased [49] Soda Ash - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 soda ash contracts were 1188, 1252, 1299 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 64, - 47, 111 yuan/ton respectively [65] - **Spot**: The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions were stable on March 2, 2026 [65] Glass - **Prices**: On March 2, 2026, the closing prices of 05, 09, 01 glass contracts were 1043, 1154, 1216 yuan/ton respectively. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, 1 - 5 month - spreads were - 111, - 62, 173 yuan/ton respectively [89] - **Production and Sales**: The production and sales of glass in different regions were weak in late February 2026 [90]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the steel industry [6]. Core Insights - Demand is expected to gradually stabilize, and supply-side adjustments are anticipated to continue, leading to a potential recovery in the steel industry's fundamentals. If supply policies are implemented, the pace of supply contraction may accelerate, facilitating a quicker industry upturn [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Steel Market Overview - Steel prices have decreased week-on-week, with the Shanghai rebar price dropping by 90 CNY/ton to 3200 CNY/ton, a decline of 2.74%. The total social inventory of major steel products rose to 12.96 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons [9][13]. - The apparent consumption of steel decreased by 690,000 tons week-on-week, with rebar consumption down by 550,000 tons [18][23]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills increased to 80.22%, up by 0.09 percentage points [24]. 2. Raw Materials - Iron ore spot prices decreased, with the price for PB powder at Rizhao Port at 748 CNY/ton, down by 3 CNY/ton. Meanwhile, coke prices increased by 50 CNY/ton to 1610 CNY/ton, a rise of 3.21% [46]. - Iron ore port inventory rose to 170.92 million tons, an increase of 1.46 million tons, while the average available days of imported iron ore for domestic steel mills decreased to 23 days [50][54]. 3. Profitability - The average gross profit for rebar was estimated at 192 CNY/ton, up by 6 CNY/ton from the previous week, while hot-rolled coil profit increased by 18 CNY/ton to 54 CNY/ton [36][40]. - Approximately 60% of steel companies are still operating at a loss, indicating ongoing supply-side adjustments [3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with technological and product structure advantages, such as Baosteel and Hesteel, as well as companies with competitive advantages in low valuation and high dividends like CITIC Special Steel [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector declined today due to news about coking coal warehouse receipts. The spot trading volume of steel products was generally weak, with downstream industries gradually resuming operations, low speculative sentiment, and mainly low - price transactions [5]. - Last week's data showed that the production of the five major steel products continued to decrease, and steel mills were still in the mode of shutdown and maintenance. As the Spring Festival approaches, the total steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than the mill inventory [5]. - Affected by the downstream shutdown during the festival, steel demand is still declining rapidly. Overseas manufacturing has gradually ended restocking, and hot - rolled coils have entered the off - season of demand, but the decline in demand is less than that of building materials [5]. - The overall fundamentals of steel continue to weaken. The enthusiasm for winter storage this year is insufficient. Currently, steel inventory is high, and post - holiday capital expenditure may fall short of expectations. The recovery of demand remains to be seen, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the production of molten iron this year, putting pressure on raw materials [5]. - However, the absolute price of steel is currently low, so the downward space is relatively limited. Recently, overseas geopolitical frictions have increased, and the resonance of oil and precious metals has driven up the black metal sector. If the frictions intensify in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. But steel prices may still return to the fundamentals, and the pressure on steel prices remains [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Information - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian threaded steel is 3160 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye threaded steel is 3100 yuan (+10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil is 3240 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3140 yuan (-) [4]. Market Judgments - **Trading Strategies** - Affected by the news of coking coal warehouse receipts, the black metal sector declined today. The overall spot trading volume of steel products was weak, and the downstream was still in the process of resuming. The speculation sentiment was weak, and low - price transactions were the main form. The fundamentals of steel continued to weaken, and the enthusiasm for winter storage this year was insufficient. Although the absolute price of steel was low and the downward space was limited, the pressure on steel prices remained. It is necessary to pay attention to the production of molten iron, downstream demand, overseas geopolitical frictions, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5]. - For options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Unilateral trading should follow overseas sentiment and maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high prices, and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to threaded steel spread [7]. - **Important Information** - According to the production scheduling report of three major white - goods released by Industrial Online, the total production scheduling volume of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in March 2026 is 39.11 million units, a 4.0% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year. Specifically, the production scheduling of household air conditioners in March is 23.34 million units, a 6.1% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of refrigerators is 8.43 million units, a 1.6% increase compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year; the production scheduling of washing machines is 7.34 million units, a 3.4% decrease compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [7][8]. - According to preliminary data from First Commercial Vehicle Network, in February 2026, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of the domestic heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17% [8]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple figures, including the base price of threaded steel and hot - rolled coil contracts (01, 05, 10 contracts), the price difference between different contracts, the spread between hot - rolled coil and threaded steel, the disk profit of different contracts, the cash profit of different regions and production processes, and the cost of electric furnaces. The data sources are Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [11][15][17].

Market Response - The military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have led to a global negative market response, with stocks declining and a "risk-off" sentiment prevailing [1] - Major indexes in Asia and Europe fell by nearly 1% or more by Monday, following the initial news of the strikes [1][8] Oil Prices - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude rising more than 7% to nearly $80 per barrel, and analysts suggest it could reach $100 if the conflict continues [5] - Iran's military capabilities pose a risk to oil facilities in the Middle East, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which almost a third of the world's seaborne oil flows, adds to the uncertainty [3][4] Economic Impact - The conflict is expected to push average gasoline prices in the U.S. above $3 per gallon, impacting consumer spending and energy-intensive industries [7] - Higher oil prices could lead to increased costs for sectors such as airlines, trucking, chemical and steel manufacturing, and farming, potentially acting as a drag on economic growth [9]

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the strategic opportunity for investment in the decarbonization of Brazil's cement and steel industries, highlighting their role as major greenhouse gas emitters and the necessity for transformation to enhance competitiveness and sustainability [9][11]. Core Insights - The decarbonization of the cement and steel industries in Brazil is not only an environmental necessity but also a key factor for the competitiveness and sustainability of these sectors [9][11]. - Brazil's renewable energy structure and historical use of biomass in the steel industry provide significant comparative advantages for accelerating the transition to low-carbon production [10][12]. - Emerging technologies such as electrification, low-carbon hydrogen (HBC), and carbon capture and storage (CCS) are crucial for deep decarbonization in both industries, despite requiring substantial investment and facing infrastructure and technological maturity challenges [10][13]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The report outlines the unprecedented strategic opportunity for Brazil in decarbonizing its cement and steel industries, which are foundational to civil construction and the national economy [9]. Industry Overview - The cement industry accounts for approximately 2.5% of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions, while steel production contributes about 4% [16]. - The report highlights the need for strong support mechanisms, including green finance, carbon pricing, and tax incentives, to facilitate the transition [11]. Emission Sources - The primary sources of emissions in the cement industry stem from the calcination of limestone, which releases CO₂, while the steel industry faces emissions from the carbon reduction of iron ore [35][36]. Financing - The report discusses various financing sources available for supporting the transition, including climate funds, private financial instruments, and blended finance strategies [55][56]. Market Opportunities and Innovations - There is a growing demand for "green" products and international regulatory pressures, such as the EU's carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM), which expand market opportunities and enhance the competitive advantage of sustainably investing companies [11][12]. Conclusion and Recommendations - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the current and future decarbonization scenarios for Brazil's cement and steel industries, emphasizing the importance of collaborative and multifaceted approaches to achieve climate goals while strengthening domestic industries [11][16].