Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a liquidity shock triggered by the rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM), leading to significant price declines in gold, silver, and other metals [1][15][17]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - On January 8, the precious metals market saw a collective adjustment, with spot gold dropping to around $4,415, COMEX silver falling over 2%, and spot silver declining more than 3% to a low of $75.58 [1]. - The rebalancing process, which began on January 8 and will continue until January 14, involves a reduction in the weight of gold from 20.4% to 14.9% and silver from 9.6% to 3.94% in the BCOM index [15][18]. Group 2: Market Impact - Deutsche Bank and TD Securities anticipate a surge of $7.7 billion in silver sell orders over the next two weeks, equating to 13% of the total open interest in the COMEX silver market [15]. - The rebalancing is expected to result in futures sell-offs that will account for 9% of total silver positions and 3% of total gold positions [15]. Group 3: Historical Context - The decline in precious metals follows a rare and significant price surge, with gold increasing over 70% and silver rising nearly 150% in 2025, leading to a fragile market environment [17]. - The rebalancing is characterized as a large-scale technical sell-off, with analysts noting that the sell pressure on silver will be the most significant, followed by aluminum and gold [18][19]. Group 4: Future Projections - Estimates suggest that a sale of 2.4 million ounces of gold could lead to a price drop of 2.5% to 3%, depending on the sensitivity model used [19]. - Analysts predict that the upcoming sell orders will lead to a substantial repricing of silver, exacerbated by a liquidity vacuum in the market [20].

Group 1: Core Insights - The metal market is experiencing a structural divergence, with strong performance in new energy metals driven by robust demand and policy expectations, while precious metals are under slight pressure due to macroeconomic factors [1] Group 2: New Energy Metals - The new energy metals sector is the market's main focus, with significant price increases in nickel and tin contracts, supported by the ongoing high demand from the global electric vehicle industry and long-term growth potential from carbon neutrality policies [1] - Despite the overall bullish trend, nickel prices experienced a notable pullback due to technical sell-offs triggered by the Bloomberg Commodity Index's annual weight rebalancing and profit-taking pressures after previous gains [1] Group 3: Precious Metals - In contrast to new energy metals, precious metals like gold and silver showed relatively flat performance, with slight declines attributed to a strengthening U.S. dollar and fluctuations in domestic manufacturing data impacting industrial metal demand expectations [2] - Regulatory measures have been implemented for silver futures, including adjustments to trading limits and increased margin requirements, indicating close monitoring of potential market overheating risks by authorities [2] Group 4: Leading Companies' Performance - Major companies in the sector, such as Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, have forecasted significant net profit growth for 2025, validating the strong profitability of upstream companies amid high metal prices [3] - These leading firms have also announced ambitious capacity expansion plans for the upcoming year, reflecting confidence in the industry's medium to long-term prospects and creating clear incremental demand expectations within the supply chain [3] Group 5: Market Outlook - The structural characteristics of the metal market are expected to persist, with long-term demand growth from energy transition supporting metals like copper, nickel, tin, and magnesium [3] - Short-term market fluctuations will be influenced by macroeconomic volatility, including monetary policy paths of major economies, geopolitical risks, and the release of key economic data [3] - Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding the "chaotic" macro environment while focusing on long-term growth opportunities in new energy metals and being aware of regulatory changes affecting specific commodities [3]

南都·湾财社：四中全会审议通过的"十五五"规划建议，将"全国统一大市场建设纵深推进，超大规模市场优势持 续显现"作为经济社会发展的主要目标之一。您如何理解统一大市场与消费之间的联系？ 黄文涛：纵深推进统一大市场建设，将充分发挥我国超大规模市场优势，加快我国消费需求释放和升级，我国居 民的新科技产品、体育、旅游、养老、育儿、文化和个性等众多的、差异化的新消费，都将呈现增量提质格局。 按"十五五"时期战略部署，将加快推进"五统一、一开放"改革，统一市场基础制度，统一市场基础设施，统一政 府行为尺度，统一市场监管执法，统一要素资源市场，持续扩大对内对外开放；同时，将着力稳就业、稳企业、 稳市场、稳预期，把投资于人和投资于物更紧密结合，提升居民收入合理增长，改善国内供强需弱的阶段性结构 矛盾。 随着经济结构转型提质的效果逐渐显现，随着居民的工资性收入、财产性收入和转移性收入的增速逐步企稳回 升，我国14亿人口消费向新升级的巨大潜力释放，将是下一阶段经济增长的必然阶段。在政策促进方面，12月28 日全国财政工作会议在北京召开，会议提出，2026年财政工作排序第一的重点任务，就是要抓好坚持内需主导， 支持建设强大国内市场 ...

Group 1 - The precious metals market experienced a significant pullback, with international silver prices dropping by 4.23% [1][7][9] - The S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reached intraday historical highs but showed weakened momentum as trading progressed, leading to a mixed performance among the three major U.S. indices [3] - The banking sector faced a collective pullback, with major banks like JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo each declining over 2%, negatively impacting the overall market [3] Group 2 - In Europe, the three major indices showed mixed results, with the FTSE 100 down by 0.74%, the CAC40 down by 0.04%, and the DAX up by 0.92% [5] - The preliminary data from the EU statistics office indicated that the Eurozone inflation rate for December 2025 is projected to be 2.0%, slightly lower than the 2.1% recorded in November [5] - The recent decline in international silver and gold prices is attributed to the upcoming annual weight rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which is expected to lead to significant adjustments in the weights of gold and silver, prompting technical sell-offs by funds tracking the index [9]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The long - term upward trend of precious metals is expected to continue, driven by loose liquidity, central bank gold purchases, and supply - demand gaps for silver and platinum [2]. - The long - slow bull market pattern of A - shares is expected to be consolidated, with the triple resonance of "policy support, capital escort, and industry drive" [3][11]. - Different varieties have different trends. For example, crude oil is expected to be bearish, while rubber is expected to be bullish [14][16]. 3. Summary by Category a. Market News - As of the end of December 2025, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.3579 trillion, a month - on - month increase of $1.15 billion, hitting a new high since December 2015. Gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces, with 14 consecutive months of increase [1][8]. - The central bank will conduct a 3 - month 1.1 trillion yuan repurchase operation on January 8 [1][7]. - In December 2025, the global manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. - The US ISM services PMI in December 2025 rose 1.8 points to 54.4, the highest since October 2024. US private - sector employment increased by 41,000 in December, reversing the previous decline but lower than market expectations [1]. b. Key Varieties Analysis - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a volatile consolidation. Gold's long - term upward trend is supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar's credit and central bank gold purchases. Silver and platinum prices are expected to rise due to macro - environment and supply - demand gaps [2][20]. - **Stock Index**: US stock indexes were mixed. In China, the A - share market is expected to benefit from supply - side reform, RMB appreciation, and overseas capital inflows, consolidating the long - slow bull market pattern [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds declined slightly. The central bank's reverse repurchase operation and economic data affect the bond market. The short - term price of treasury bond futures is supported by expected policy easing, but the stock - bond seesaw effect makes the bond price weak [12][13]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil is expected to be bearish. Methanol is in a short - term weakening trend due to factors such as inventory increases. Rubber is expected to be bullish as supply elasticity weakens [14][15][16]. - **Metals**: Copper, zinc, and aluminum prices are affected by factors such as supply, demand, and macro - environment. Carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term [21][22][24]. - **Agricultural Products**: Protein meal is affected by Brazilian soybean production and domestic supply expectations. Oils and fats have limited short - term fundamental improvement. Sugar is expected to be in a short - term volatile trend. Cotton is supported by factors such as reduced planting area expectations [28][29][32]. - **Shipping Index**: The freight rate of the European container shipping line may see a turning point as the Spring Festival approaches [33].

美国将于周四公布当周初请失业金人数，周五发布的12月非农就业报告则是市场关注的焦点。市场预期 12月新增就业约6万人，失业率或小幅降至4.5%。这些数据将为评估美国经济韧性及美联储未来利率路 径提供重要依据。 若就业数据不及预期，可能强化市场对美联储年内降息的预期，进而压低实际利率，降低持有无息资产 黄金的机会成本，对金价构成支撑；反之，若数据表现强劲，金价短期或继续承压整理。 摘要今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并 刷新阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧 有所降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 今日周四(1月8日)亚市时段，黄金小幅回落至4450美元附近，此前因地缘避险情绪推动快速拉升并刷新 阶段性高位，短线涨幅较大引发部分交易者获利了结，上涨动能暂缓。当前市场对地缘局势的担忧有所 降温，风险偏好边际修复，黄金避险买盘暂时减弱。 【基本面解析】 与此同时，市场逐渐进入观望模式，静待本周美国一系列关键宏观数据集中公布。当前金价回落更多是 前期大幅上涨后的正常获利回吐，而非趋势性反转。 黄 ...

Group 1: Price Performance - London platinum's latest price is 2362.00 with a change of 116.00; London palladium's latest price is 1773.00 with a change of 51.00; LME copper's latest price is 13120.50 with a change of -251.50 [3] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.74 with a change of 0.14; the latest value of euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.78 with a change of 0.11 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver's latest inventory is 13863.98 with a change of -108.05; SHFE silver's latest inventory is 553.43 with a change of -28.01 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1067.13 with no change; silver ETF's latest holding is 16099.83 with a change of -18.33 [4] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE gold's latest data is 1 with a change of -1.00; the deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver's latest data is 2 with no change [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [2]. - Silver: Prices have corrected from high levels [2]. - Copper: The LME spot premium has declined, and price increases have slowed [2]. - Zinc: Prices are oscillating at high levels [2]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports prices [2]. - Tin: Bullish capital has been blocked, and prices have fallen after reaching a high [2]. - Aluminum: Prices have slightly declined [2]. - Alumina: Prices are oscillating within a range [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: It is stronger than electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Platinum: Prices are oscillating to find a direction [2]. - Palladium: Prices are maintaining an oscillating trend [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cycle transformation, with wide - range oscillations [2]. - Stainless steel: The real - world fundamentals are dragging down the market, and the market is mainly betting on Indonesian policies [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals (Gold and Silver) - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 984.84, down 2.22%; the trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 18140, down 0.35%; the trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320 [5]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged; the inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40985 kg [5]. - **News**: China's central bank has increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [5][7]. 3.2 Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 103,410, down 1.81%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 758,590, an increase of 114,266. The closing price of LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 12,866, down 2.93% [8]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Copper was 96,474 tons, an increase of 3,203 tons; the LME spot premium declined [8]. - **News**: China's copper ore imports in November 2025 increased, and there were developments in copper mines such as labor - contract negotiations in Chile and the progress of domestic copper mines [8][10]. 3.3 Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 24330, up 0.14%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 187735, an increase of 10560. The closing price of LME Zinc 3M electronic disk was 3245.5, up 1.17% [11]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Zinc was 40919 tons, an increase of 74 tons; the LME Zinc inventory was 105500 tons, a decrease of 275 tons [11]. - **News**: China's December foreign exchange reserves increased, and there were international geopolitical news such as the US' "commission - selling" of Venezuelan oil [12]. 3.4 Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17830, up 1.77%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 83341, an increase of 26456. The closing price of LME Lead 3M electronic disk was 2071, up 2.04% [14]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Lead was 13439 tons, a decrease of 25 tons; the LME Lead inventory was 230425 tons, a decrease of 2925 tons [14]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and other macro - news have been released [15]. 3.5 Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 359,050, up 2.93%; the trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 459,909, an increase of 134,924. The closing price of LME Tin 3M electronic disk was 44,650, up 0.34% [17]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of Shanghai Tin was 6,780 tons, a decrease of 306 tons; the LME Tin inventory was 5,405 tons, a decrease of 15 tons [17]. - **News**: The memory market has entered a "super - bull market", and there were policies to accelerate the upgrade of intelligent terminals [18]. 3.6 Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 24360, up 25; the trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 639637, an increase of 87968. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2938, up 120; the trading volume of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 1854026, an increase of 1136372. The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 23035, up 40; the trading volume of the aluminum alloy main contract was 19559, an increase of 1289 [20]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 8.50 million tons, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory was 50.18 million tons, a decrease of 0.25 million tons [20]. - **News**: The US "small non - farm" ADP employment data and the ISM service industry PMI data have been released [21]. 3.7 Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Platinum Futures 2606 was 598.50, down 2.97%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Platinum was 82,828 kg, an increase of 17,632 kg. The closing price of Palladium Futures 2606 was 475.95, up 0.86%; the trading volume of Guangzhou Palladium was 44,238 kg, an increase of 8,209 kg [23]. - **Inventory and Premium**: The inventory of NYMEX Platinum was 645,366 ounces, unchanged; the inventory of NYMEX Palladium was 211,306 ounces, unchanged [23]. - **News**: There were international news such as Zelensky's statement on the end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the US' actions regarding Venezuelan oil [26]. 3.8 Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 147,720, up 7,920; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,132,256, an increase of 393,922. The closing price of the stainless steel main contract was 13,885, up 490; the trading volume of the stainless steel main contract was 547,902, an increase of 243,022 [27]. - **Industry News**: The Indonesian government has taken measures such as suspending the issuance of new smelting licenses and revising the benchmark price formula for nickel ore [27][28].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Precious Metals and Base Metals - **Key Focus**: The impact of macroeconomic factors, particularly U.S. monetary and fiscal policies, on precious metals prices, including gold and silver, as well as base metals like copper and zinc. Core Insights and Arguments Precious Metals Market - **Gold Price Dynamics**: The gold market in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. and major economies' monetary policies, with expectations of continued demand for gold ETFs due to a prolonged interest rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve [1][12]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks, particularly in emerging markets like China, Turkey, Poland, and India, are expected to continue increasing gold reserves, which will support gold prices in the long term [8][9]. - **Silver Demand**: Silver is anticipated to benefit from improved macro liquidity and tight supply-demand fundamentals, with new demand growth from sectors like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and AI data centers [1][15]. - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical tensions and the AI narrative will also play significant roles in shaping market sentiment and prices [4][5]. Base Metals Market - **Copper Supply and Demand**: The copper market is expected to see a slight increase in refined copper production in 2026, but overall growth will remain low due to various disruptions, including political instability in Peru and aging mines [24][25]. - **Emerging Demand**: New sectors such as AI and energy storage are projected to drive copper demand, particularly in the U.S. [30]. However, demand from the Chinese electric vehicle sector is expected to decline [33]. - **Zinc Market Outlook**: Zinc supply is expected to improve in 2026, but the overall increase may be limited due to declining ore grades and weak demand from the real estate and home appliance sectors [34][35]. Economic Context - **U.S. Economic Conditions**: The U.S. economy is currently in a recovery phase, with expectations of continued interest rate cuts, which are favorable for precious metals [10][11]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: The deteriorating fiscal situation in the U.S. is weakening the dollar and U.S. debt credit, prompting a search for more reliable safe-haven assets like gold [14]. Market Sentiment and Future Trends - **AI Narrative**: The AI narrative, while potentially creating a bubble, is seen as a significant driver of economic growth, which could positively impact precious metals if it does not burst [7]. - **Price Adjustments**: Recent adjustments in gold and silver prices after reaching historical highs are viewed as a normal market correction rather than a sign of a market peak [17]. Additional Important Insights - **Platinum Group Metals**: The supply of platinum and palladium is highly concentrated, with South Africa and Russia being the main suppliers. Any disruptions in these regions could significantly impact prices [18][19]. - **Market Volatility**: The concentration of supply in the platinum group metals and the potential for geopolitical disruptions highlight the volatility and risks associated with these markets [18][21]. - **Long-term Projections**: The overall sentiment for precious metals remains optimistic for 2026, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and macroeconomic conditions favoring gold and silver [12][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the precious metals and base metals markets.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - On January 6, 2026, the outer - market prices of platinum and palladium dropped significantly in the afternoon, and the inner - market prices showed a differentiated trend. The closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 598.5 yuan/gram, with a decline of - 2.47%, while the palladium price was relatively stronger, with the GFEX palladium main contract closing at 475.95 yuan/gram, a rise of + 1.71% [1] - The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward due to healthy supply - demand fundamentals and positive macro - expectations. The palladium price is also expected to be strong in a volatile manner due to spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Platinum - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: Affected by profit - taking and a slight strengthening of the US dollar, the precious metals sector declined, and the platinum price was under pressure. Geopolitical risks may further intensify price fluctuations. As of January 7, the premium of the domestic closing time of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum main contract to NYMEX platinum (tax - included) was 21.4 yuan/gram, and the internal - external price difference significantly converged [2] - **Supply and Demand**: The main supply country, South Africa, still faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a stage of structural expansion. Demand in the automotive catalyst field is relatively stable, the hydrogen energy industry is an important future growth point, and jewelry and investment demand are expanding [2] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The platinum price is expected to fluctuate upward. In the short term, prices may continue to fluctuate widely, and investors should trade cautiously. They can consider low - buying opportunities after sufficient adjustments. For arbitrage strategies, wait for the internal - external price difference to widen again for internal - external positive arbitrage. Also, wait for the platinum - palladium price difference to converge for long - platinum and short - palladium operations [2] Palladium - **Price Performance and Influencing Factors**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce's investigation into the import of unforged palladium from Russia has led to a temporary tightening of palladium supply in other regions. Demand shows significant structural pressure [3] - **Outlook and Strategies**: The palladium price is expected to be strong in a volatile manner. In the short term, price fluctuations are intensified, and investors should trade cautiously. For arbitrage strategies, take profits on internal - external positive arbitrage and consider long - platinum and short - palladium operations [3] Commodity Index - **Specialty Index**: The commodity index was 2405.76, up 0.78%; the commodity 20 index was 2745.33, up 0.55%; the industrial products index was 2344.88, up 1.20%; the PPI commodity index was 1467.90, up 0.62% [50] - **Sector Index**: The non - ferrous metal index on January 7, 2026, closed at 2846.27, up 0.27% for the day, up 6.38% in the past 5 days, up 10.47% in the past month, and up 5.97% since the beginning of the year [51]