【导读】日本救汇率了 大家好，日本政府，刚刚向外汇市场发出"救市"信号。 日本财务大臣片山皋月表示，日本在面对与基本面不符的汇率波动时"有充分回旋余地"采取果断行动。 这是她迄今对投机资金最强硬的警告之一。此前，日本央行加息后日元仍走弱，引发市场对当局可能干 预的猜测。 "这些走势显然并不符合基本面，而更像是投机行为。"片山在接受采访时表示，指的是上周五日元的快 速贬值。"针对这类走势，我们已经明确表态将果断行动，这一点也写在日美财长联合声明里。" 片山在暗示可能进行直接汇市干预的同时，也谈到：随着高市早苗政府推动更强劲的经济增长，日本短 期内的财政压力可能会加大——这同样是投资者关注的重点。 片山的表态，发生在外界再度猜测财务省可能出手干预之际。此前日本央行在高度"预告"的情况下，将 借贷成本上调至30年来最高水平，但日元在加息后反而走弱。日本央行行长植田和男在会后记者会上的 发言，被部分市场人士解读为对再次加息的信号不够强硬，结果触发日元进一步下滑。 片山提到与美国的联合声明，意味着她认为日本已获得华盛顿方面的"默许"，必要时可在无需进一步协 商的情况下采取行动。她的前任加藤胜信与美国财政部长斯科特·贝森 ...

（原标题：?揭秘2025年"东南亚最强货币"泰铢背后的双引擎：关税"意外助攻"与黄金潮汐） 首先，毋庸置疑的是过于强势的泰铢使泰国本土制造产品在海外市场更昂贵。泰国商务部统计数据显 示，该国出口在10月以一年多来最慢的速度增长。 智通财经APP获悉，东南亚核心主权货币之一泰铢正迈向八年来兑美元的最大年度涨幅，2025年迄今， 泰铢兑美元涨幅已经高达10%，同期涨势罕见同时胜过新加坡元以及马来西亚令吉、印度尼西亚盾，堪 称东南亚最强货币。乍看之下，几乎没有什么能够解释其相较东南亚区域主权货币的出色表现。泰国经 济远非强劲增长可言，并且受到旅游业持续疲软、高家庭负债以及对美国出口被征收19%关税的重大拖 累。 在华尔街分析师们看来，泰铢的这轮罕见货币走势部分主要由金价上涨以及特朗普关税政策"意外带来 的提振效应"所推动，并且泰铢汇率上行正使这个东南亚国家重点依赖的出口型制造商竞争力下降，并 加剧了新任总理阿努廷·查恩维拉库尔所面临的挑战——其领导的泰国政府将在2月面对一场提前选举。 为何泰铢如此强势? 泰国货币在2024年年中开始兑美元持续走强，差不多就在政府推出经济刺激计划推动出口规模，以及交 易员们在美联储最 ...

东南亚核心主权货币之一泰铢正迈向八年来兑美元的最大年度涨幅，2025年迄今，泰铢兑美元涨幅已经高达 10%，同期涨势罕见同时胜过新加坡元以及马来西亚令吉、印度尼西亚盾，堪称东南亚最强货币。乍看之下，几 乎没有什么能够解释其相较东南亚区域主权货币的出色表现。泰国经济远非强劲增长可言，并且受到旅游业持续 疲软、高家庭负债以及对美国出口被征收19%关税的重大拖累。 在华尔街分析师们看来，泰铢的这轮罕见货币走势部分主要由金价上涨以及特朗普关税政策"意外带来的提振效 应"所推动，并且泰铢汇率上行正使这个东南亚国家重点依赖的出口型制造商竞争力下降，并加剧了新任总理阿 努廷.查恩维拉库尔所面临的挑战——其领导的泰国政府将在2月面对一场提前选举。 为何泰铢如此强势? 泰国货币在2024年年中开始兑美元持续走强，差不多就在政府推出经济刺激计划推动出口规模，以及交易员们在 美联储最新一轮降息周期之前开始抛售美元的同时期。今年以来，外汇交易员们对于美元作为储备货币地位的疑 虑也为这轮上涨提供了强大支撑。 强势泰铢会有什么问题吗? 泰铢近期的大部分涨势由金价(黄金兑美元)大幅上涨带来的外溢效应，与美国劳动力市场走软所推动——美国就 ...

12月22日，随着全球数字资产市场的波动加剧，Moneta Markets外汇持续关注主流金融机构对加密货币 走势的深度研判。近期，华尔街顶级银行发布的最新报告将比特币未来12个月的基准目标价定为143000 美元，这预示着该资产相较于目前约88000美元的价格水平，仍有约62%的潜在上涨空间。Moneta Markets外汇认为，尽管短期内市场经历了部分回调与震荡，但支撑比特币长期上行的底层逻辑依然稳 固，尤其是传统金融资本的持续介入正在重塑其估值体系。 在对市场节奏的把握上，Moneta Markets外汇表示，新年前后比特币的价格波动区间预计将维持在 80000美元至90000美元之间。分析师特别强调了70000美元这一关键支撑水平的重要性，认为这一位置 不仅是前期价格突破后的心理防御线，更是衡量多头信心的核心指标。根据相关机构的联合研究，第二 季度可能出台的数字资产立法将成为行业发展的里程碑，监管的明确性将显著提升机构投资者对数字资 产的采用率，从而为市场注入更具规模的流动性。 对于未来的走势推演，市场给出了三种不同的预期路径。在基准情景下，受现货ETF资金的持续流入以 及全球传统股市走强带来的溢出效 ...

新华财经北京12月22日电中国外汇投资研究院金融分析师张正阳表示，日元贬值的驱动因素是多方面 的。日本的财政扩张政策加剧了市场对日本财政状况的担忧，进而削弱日元价值。此外，全球能源价格 波动和地缘政治紧张局势，也放大了日元作为避险资产的波动性，这使得汇率更易受投机行为影响。从 经济影响来看，日元贬值虽有利于出口企业提升竞争力，但负面效应更为突出，进口成本上升直接推高 物价，尤其是能源和食品价格，加剧了家庭生活压力；企业生产成本增加，可能抑制投资和就业；更深 远的是，贬值若持续，会放大财政风险，因为政府债务以日元计价，但贬值可能通过通胀途径增加偿债 负担。 历史经验表明，日本货币当局常通过言论来引导市场预期，避免实际干预的高成本。然而，市场反应显 示，仅靠口头干预可能不足以逆转趋势，尤其在财政宽松预期强化的情况下。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Report Summary - **Report Title**: Baoju Securities Weekly Report - **Report Date**: December 22, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Report Core View - Global economic slowdown and inflation trends affect various asset markets, including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange. Market participants are closely watching central bank policies, economic data, and geopolitical events to assess investment opportunities and risks. Summary by Related Catalogs Global Stock Market - **European Stocks**: Economic slowdown and inflation concerns lead to fluctuations in European major stock indices. The European Central Bank maintains interest rates, and the market awaits PMI data to judge the possibility of a mild recovery in early 2026 [3][4]. - **Chinese Stocks**: Weak domestic demand and real - estate market issues pressure the Chinese market. Beijing may introduce new stimulus measures. Investors are looking for blue - chip stocks with clear profit prospects for portfolio layout [3][4]. - **Hong Kong Stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rebounds after being affected by the US inflation data. Market liquidity may improve with the expansion of regulations and IPO activities, but returns depend on foreign capital inflows and the stability of the RMB exchange rate [3][4]. - **US Stocks**: The decline in the November CPI data boosts expectations of interest rate cuts, leading to a rebound in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices. The market focuses on year - end spending and profit expectations, and the AI sector's technical changes increase market volatility [3]. Global Bond Market - **Government Bonds**: The FTSE World Government Bond Index falls 0.04%. Although the decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, the hawkish stances of the Fed and the Bank of England limit gains. Prices remain range - bound due to year - end liquidity tightening and policy uncertainty [5]. - **High - Yield Bonds**: The Bloomberg Global High - Yield Bond Index rises 0.29%. Spreads narrow and economic optimism boost risk appetite. However, emerging - market debt faces challenges due to the strong US dollar, despite China's stimulus measures. High - yield bonds will remain popular in 2026, and emerging - market performance depends on exchange - rate stability and fiscal progress [5]. Commodities - **WTI Crude**: WTI crude oil falls 1.36% to $56.66 per barrel. The progress of Russia - Ukraine negotiations and global economic growth concerns lead to a second - consecutive - week decline. In 2026, expected production surpluses and stable OPEC+ output may put pressure on oil prices, and the market focuses on year - end inventory data [8]. - **Gold**: Gold prices rise 0.91% to $4338.88 per ounce. The decline in the US CPI boosts interest - rate cut expectations, and year - end hedging operations drive up gold prices. Interest - rate cuts and central - bank demand support gold prices moving towards $4400, but the Fed's hawkish remarks may trigger profit - taking [9]. - **Bloomberg Commodity Spot Index**: The index falls 0.16% to 580.08. Weak energy prices offset the rise of gold and soft commodities. The market is weighing 2026 growth expectations, and commodities will remain range - bound. Upcoming PMI data are crucial for assessing metal and energy demand [10]. Foreign Exchange - **US Dollar Index**: The US dollar index rises 0.20% to 98.60. Weak CPI data boost expectations of 2026 interest - rate cuts, but the Fed's hawkish remarks provide support. The index is expected to fluctuate around the current level, with technical support at 98.00 [11]. - **RMB against the US Dollar**: The RMB falls 0.20% to 7.0411. Weak domestic demand and the real - estate market pressure the RMB, but the optimistic 2026 fiscal expansion outlook limits the decline. The RMB's trend depends on the pace of fiscal stimulus and the overall strength of the US dollar [12]. Main Indices and Economic Data - **Main Indices**: The report provides price and cumulative return data of major global stock indices such as the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index, the Shanghai Composite Index, the US Dow Jones Index, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [16]. - **Economic Data**: It includes data on non - farm payrolls, unemployment rates, PMI, CPI, and other economic indicators in the US and Europe, with comparisons between previous values, market expectations, and actual values [17]. Bond/Foreign Exchange Index - **Bond Index**: It shows the price, change percentage, and yield of various government bonds such as US, Chinese, Japanese, German, and British bonds as of December 19, 2025 [18]. - **Foreign Exchange Index**: It provides price and cumulative return data of major currency pairs including the Hong Kong dollar, the US dollar, the euro, etc., as of December 19, 2025 [18].

高盛闭门会-全球市场 26 展望，股市波动性加剧 ai 主题扩 散，利率新兴市场外汇 20251221 今年的整体宏观背景相当温和。经济增长稳健，通缩趋势日益清晰，劳动力市 场虽然疲软，但并未过度疲软，足以推动更多降息。从市场角度看，挑战在于 市场已大幅领先宏观经济周期。股票和信贷市场的高估值与宏观周期尚未显现 典型后期周期特征（如失衡、高杠杆）之间存在矛盾。例如，失业率仍相对较 低，企业杠杆率也不算过高。尽管通胀高于历史水平，但我们认为它正在下降。 因此当前宏观周期并未显现出特别担忧的失衡或过度扩张迹象。然而，美国股 市和信用利差极低的信贷市场估值水平明显偏高。 如果能够度过劳动力市场等 短期担忧，我们预期中的建设性周期背景将主导估值担忧，股市应能延续上行 趋势。但这种矛盾意味着，在股市上涨过程中波动性将周期性上升。如果市场 更关注再杠杆化、供应问题（如 BAT 相关调查），则对历史低位的信用利差将 构成更大挑战。此外，人工智能相关讨论是当前市场的重要议题。人工智能周 美债与美股相关性稳步下降，有利于债券在多资产投资组合中发挥更有 效作用。需关注财政政策、债务与 GDP 比等因素对债券收益的影响，以 及劳动 ...

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy is forecasted to show strong growth in the third quarter, with median annualized growth expected at 3.2%, attributed to a significant pullback in imports following earlier increases due to tariffs [1][12] Investor Sentiment - Investor sentiment has reached extreme bullish levels at 8.5, which historically precedes market pullbacks, with global equities typically declining a median of 2.7% over the following two months [2][3][13] - The Fund Manager Survey indicates the most bullish sentiment in 3.5 years, driven by expectations of rate, tariff, and tax cuts [3][13] Market Performance - S&P 500 futures increased by 0.2% and Nasdaq futures rose by 0.3%, reflecting a prevailing fear of missing out among investors [6][13] - Japan's Nikkei index rose by 1.5%, benefiting from a decline in the yen, which is expected to enhance export earnings for Japanese companies [7][13] Currency Movements - The yen reached record lows against the euro and Swiss franc, prompting concerns from Japan's currency officials about excessive declines and potential intervention [8][13] - The dollar was steady against a basket of currencies, having gained 0.3% recently, with a potential target of 158.00 for further upward movement [9][13] Equity Inflows - Equity markets experienced record inflows of $98 billion last week, primarily driven by U.S. equity funds, while Chinese equity funds saw significant inflows as well [10][13] Commodity Prices - Silver prices reached a new record at $67.48 per ounce, marking a year-to-date gain of nearly 134%, while gold rose to $4,362 per ounce [11][13] - Oil prices increased following U.S. actions against Venezuelan oil tankers, with Brent crude rising to $60.88 per barrel and U.S. crude to $56.89 per barrel [11][13]

日度报告——综合晨报 美联储官员鹰派表态降息，中国国常会部署 稳经济工作 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-12-22 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储鹰派暗示不会降息 哈马克力主维持高利率更长时间 美联储鹰派官员表态不会降息，利率维持高位更长时间，表明 对于通胀担忧继续存在，美元短期震荡。 宏观策略（股指期货） 国常会要求加快部署中央经济工作会议安排 综 近期宏观空窗期，A 股走势波澜不惊，短暂的回调之势被国家队 等稳市资金阻断，市场再度震荡上行。展望后市，跨年行情或 将维持高位窄幅震荡的态势。 有色金属（铜） 1-10 月全球精炼铜市场供应过剩 12.2 万吨 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 562 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 超长端品种继续大幅下跌的概率在下降，市场有望温和修复。 农产品（棉花） 美棉出口周报（11.20-11.27）：签约下滑 我国 11 月棉花棉纱进口环比同比双增，其中 11 月棉纱进口同比 增 25%至 15 万吨。配额短缺限制棉花进口，但进口纱竞争优势 增强，吸引部分企业加大采购。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 247 家钢厂高炉铁水日均产量 22 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stability in November 2025, with a balanced supply and demand despite fluctuations in the international financial market and a weakening US dollar [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - The foreign exchange market in China has continued to operate smoothly, with both bank foreign exchange settlement and sales remaining stable [1] - The foreign exchange settlement surplus in November was $15.7 billion, which is comparable to October's figures [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure from non-bank sectors, including enterprises and individuals, totaled $1.3 trillion in November, reflecting an 8% month-on-month increase [1] - The cross-border capital flow surplus was $17.8 billion, lower than the average surplus of $24 billion observed in September and October [1] Group 3: Trade and Investment Insights - Goods trade remains the primary channel for net capital inflows, while service trade, investment income, and direct investment flows have remained stable [1] - Recent trends indicate that capital flows under securities investment have become more stable [1]