Dollar Index - The dollar index showed a downward trend on Monday, with a high of 97.679 and a low of 97.246, closing at 97.326 [1] - Weekly analysis indicates that the price is currently in a consolidation phase, with resistance at 97.80; a close above this level is needed for a bullish outlook [1] - Daily resistance is at 97.70, and the price must stabilize above this level for potential upward movement; otherwise, it remains under pressure [1] - The four-hour resistance is between 97.40-50, and the price is currently viewed as bearish unless it breaks above this range [1] Gold - Gold prices generally increased on Monday, reaching a high of 3685.43 and a low of 3626.42, closing at 3678.72 [3] - Monthly analysis shows a bullish trend, with 3000 as a critical long-term support level; prices above this level are considered bullish [4] - Weekly analysis indicates that the price has broken key resistance and is making new historical highs, with a critical support level at 3415 [4] - Daily support is at 3578, and the four-hour support is between 3657-3658, with a bullish outlook as long as these levels hold [4][6] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Monday, with a low of 1.1715 and a high of 1.1774, closing at 1.1760 [6] - Monthly analysis indicates a bullish outlook as long as the price remains above 1.1060; the weekly support level is at 1.1690 [6] - Daily resistance is at 1.1710, and the price is expected to remain bullish above this level; four-hour support is between 1.1740-50 [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released includes U.S. retail sales, industrial production, and Canadian CPI, which may impact market sentiment [8][9]

Core Insights - The article presents a comprehensive market monitoring dashboard covering multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, commodities, and cryptocurrencies, providing traders with indicators for trend, reversal, volatility, and overbought/oversold conditions [1]. Asset Classification - The assets are categorized into four main classes: Equity, FX, Commodities, and Crypto, each with specific indicators for analysis [2]. Key Assets and Recent Changes - Key assets to focus on include: - **Equity**: SP500_US and Nasdaq100_US are highlighted for their significant volatility and potential for trend continuation or reversal [1]. - **China Stocks**: CSI300_China and SSE_China are noted for their low valuations and potential rebound, albeit with high volatility [1]. - **Forex**: USDJPY and USDCNY are emphasized due to significant central bank policy differences, while EURUSD and GBPUSD are suitable for macro hedging [1]. - **Commodities**: Gold and CrudeWTI are driven by safe-haven demand and inflation expectations, while CopperHG and Soybean are sensitive to economic cycles and Chinese demand [1]. - **Cryptocurrency**: BTCUSD and ETHUSD are recognized for their high volatility and suitability for swing trading [1]. Potential Trading Opportunities - Trading opportunities are identified based on specific numerical indicators, such as extreme Sigma values indicating potential rebounds or trend continuations [3]. Suggested Operational Framework - Strategies include: - **Rebound Opportunities**: Identifying assets with low Sigma values and reversal signals for potential rebounds [4]. - **Trend Continuation**: Following assets where EMA20 is above EMA100, indicating an upward trend [4]. - **Volatility Strategies**: Utilizing high VolRank and rising ATR% for options strategies or breakout trades [4]. Risk Considerations - Risks include: - **Overbought Risks**: High Sigma values indicating potential short-term overheating [4]. - **Trend Reversal Risks**: Signals indicating potential reversals, especially with high deviation [4]. - **Liquidity/Volatility Risks**: Extreme market conditions requiring position control [4]. Multi-Asset Comparison and Risk Management - Emphasis on comparing assets within the same category and using multiple indicators for comprehensive analysis [4]. - Risk management is prioritized, with all trades requiring stop-loss measures based on volatility and drawdown metrics [4]. - The technical analysis should be complemented with macroeconomic factors such as central bank policies and geopolitical events [4].

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 美国通胀压力尚存，美元继续看跌 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好维持高位，股市多数上涨，债券收益率多数上 行，美债收益率微降至 4.06%。美元指数跌 0.22%至 97.55，非美 货币多数升值，离岸人民币涨 0.02%，欧元涨 0.14%，英镑涨 0.34%，日元跌 0.17%，瑞郎涨 0.18%，加元、韩元贬值，澳元、 新西兰元、兰特、雷亚尔、泰铢、比索升值超 1%。金价涨 1.6% 至 3643 美元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 14.7，现货商品指数震荡， 布油涨 3.8%至 67.6 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 特朗普政府关税政策逆转，当前交易逻辑将发生转变。 | [T走ab势le_评Ra级nk：] 美元：震荡 | 元涛 | 宏观策略首席分析师 | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： 2025 年 9 月 14 日 | 从业资格号： [Table_Analyser] | F0286099 | | [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 | 投资咨询号： | Z0012850 | | 市场 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report was released on September 12, 2025, by the macro team of the research center [2] 2. Global Asset Market Performance 2.1 Government Bond Yields - **10 - year Government Bond Yields**: Yields showed various changes across different economies. For example, the US 10 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 4.022, with a latest change of - 0.025, a one - week change of - 0.140, a one - month change of - 0.264, and a one - year change of 0.190 [3] - **2 - year Government Bond Yields**: The US 2 - year yield on September 11, 2025, was 3.540, with a latest change of 0.050, a one - week change of - 0.120, a one - month change of - 0.070, and a one - year change of - 0.370 [3] 2.2 Exchange Rates - **USD against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies**: The USD/Brazilian Real exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 5.389, with a latest change of - 0.37%, a one - week change of - 1.06%, a one - month change of - 0.52%, and a one - year change of - 4.52% [3] - **Renminbi**: The on - shore RMB exchange rate on September 11, 2025, was 7.119, with a latest change of - 0.03%, a one - week change of - 0.32%, a one - month change of - 0.88%, and a one - year change of - 0.04% [3] 2.3 Stock Indices - **Major Economies' Stock Indices**: The S&P 500 index on September 11, 2025, was 6587.470, with a latest change of 0.85%, a one - week change of 1.31%, a one - month change of 1.84%, and a one - year change of 19.15% [3] - **Other Stock Indices**: The Hang Seng Index on September 11, 2025, was 26086.320, with a latest change of - 0.43%, a one - week change of 4.10%, a one - month change of 2.22%, and a one - year change of 47.79% [3] 2.4 Credit Bond Indices - The US investment - grade credit bond index on September 11, 2025, was 3529.910, with a latest change of 0.28%, a one - week change of 1.28%, a one - month change of 2.09%, and a one - year change of 5.49% [3][4] 3. Stock Index Futures Trading Data 3.1 Index Performance - The closing price of the A - share index was 3875.31, with a change of 1.65% [5] 3.2 Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300 was 14.18, with a环比 change of 0.24 [5] 3.3 Risk Premium - The risk premium (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) of the S&P 500 was - 0.37, with a环比 change of 0.00 [5] 3.4 Fund Flows - The latest value of fund flows into A - shares was 1342.66, and the 5 - day average was 30.55 [5] 4. Government Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing price of the T00 government bond futures was 107.880, with a change of - 0.31% [6] 5. Other Stock Indices - The Malaysian index on September 11, 2025, was 1582.850, with a latest change of - 0.50%, a one - week change of 0.30% [9]

| 11 75 22 111 | | --- | | Contract of the county SURE PLAN | | | 研究中心宏观团队 2025/09/11 | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/09/10 | 4.047 | 4.632 | 3.461 | 2.650 | 3.464 | 3.234 | 0.215 | 3.315 | | 最新变化 | -0.041 | 0.010 | -0.007 | -0.008 | -0.014 | -0.012 | 0.005 | -0.004 | | 一周变化 | -0.171 | -0.115 | -0.079 | -0.089 | -0.148 | -0.111 | -0.057 | -0.122 | | 一月变化 | -0.18 ...

《金融快报》报道，在连续两个月被低估之后，7月孟加拉国本币塔卡兑美元再次被高估，这引发了人 们对孟加拉国在动荡的全球市场上的保持贸易竞争力的担忧。实际有效汇率（REER）是衡量外汇市场 平衡的关键指标，REER 以 2016 财年为基准，涵盖 18 种货币，代表孟加拉国主要贸易伙伴的经济体， 这些货币合计占孟对外贸易的85% 。REER高于100表明本币兑一篮子主要贸易伙伴货币被高估。孟7月 实际有效率汇率为101.14，6月为 98.61，5月为 99.27。货币估值过高通常会削弱出口竞争力，并减缓汇 款流入。一位资深央行官员将近期实际有效汇率上升归因于几个相互关联的因素：美元走弱和七月份国 内通胀上升。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the foreign exchange market and its dynamics, focusing on the impact of various factors on currency fluctuations, particularly the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Factors Influencing Exchange Rates** Exchange rate fluctuations are influenced by multiple cross-border capital flow factors, including trade in goods and services, and investment behaviors. A single theory cannot fully explain these changes, necessitating a combination of short-term technical analysis, mid-term macro frameworks, and long-term valuation models [1][3][4]. 2. **Short-term Analysis of the US Dollar** In the short term, technical indicators are crucial. The US dollar has broken below its three-year trading range, indicating a bearish trend with limited rebound potential. Weekly momentum indices can help identify short-term overbought or oversold conditions [1][5][7]. 3. **Mid to Long-term Dollar Valuation** The dollar should be viewed as having dual attributes of assets and liabilities. Its value is influenced by the relative strength of the US economy, financial sentiment, and conditions. Long-term valuation models analyze the relative prices of goods, services, and assets between countries [1][6][12]. 4. **Impact of Market Liquidity on Exchange Rates** Market liquidity significantly affects exchange rates. A tight liquidity environment can lead to a rebound in the dollar. The SOFA 99 minus SOFA metric is used to gauge liquidity conditions [1][9]. 5. **Geopolitical and External Factors** Geopolitical situations, supply chain issues, and tariff policies can influence market trading themes and, consequently, exchange rates. For instance, easing tensions in the Russia-Ukraine conflict benefited the euro [1][11]. 6. **Chinese Yuan Dynamics** The Chinese yuan's exchange rate is affected by trading themes, market signals, and central bank policies. The yuan's valuation is influenced by cross-border capital flows, with a current account surplus but a capital account deficit [2][17][24]. 7. **Seasonal Behavior of the Yuan** Seasonal factors significantly impact the yuan's exchange rate, with summer months typically seeing depreciation due to increased foreign currency purchases for dividends, while autumn and winter often see appreciation as exporters convert foreign earnings [20]. 8. **Interest Rate Differentials** Interest rate differentials play a crucial role in forex trading, with potential narrowing of the US-China interest rate gap positively impacting the yuan [18][19][26]. 9. **Effective Exchange Rate of the Yuan** The effective exchange rate of the yuan reflects its value against a basket of currencies. Despite appreciation against the dollar, the yuan has depreciated against other currencies, indicating a downward trend in its effective exchange rate [27]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The relationship between exchange rates and risk currencies (like GBP, AUD) versus safe-haven currencies (like JPY, CHF) is highlighted, noting that market risk appetite can shift these dynamics [1][8]. - The importance of monitoring external risk events, such as US monetary policy changes and geopolitical developments, is emphasized as they can significantly impact currency valuations [21][22]. - The discussion includes the potential for the dollar to remain overvalued, which could necessitate adjustments in exchange rates to restore competitiveness for US goods and services [15]. This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the complexities of the foreign exchange market, emphasizing the interplay of various economic, geopolitical, and technical factors that influence currency valuations.

Group 1 - As of the end of August, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 332.22 billion USD, an increase of 29.9 billion USD from the end of July, reflecting a growth rate of 0.91% [1] - The stable growth of China's economy demonstrates strong resilience and vitality, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves [1] Group 2 - From July to August 2025, UnionPay and NetUnion processed a total of 276.996 billion payment transactions, amounting to 15.166 trillion CNY, representing year-on-year growth of 14.59% and 16.64% respectively [2] - The growth rate of transaction amounts accelerated by 3.3 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [2] Group 3 - Since its inception in 1997, the China International Investment and Trade Fair has led to an increase in foreign-invested enterprises in Fujian province to 78,000, with an average annual growth of 2,116 enterprises [3] - In the first seven months of this year, the import and export trade volume of foreign-invested enterprises in Fujian reached 238.77 billion CNY, with imports at 91.24 billion CNY and exports at 147.53 billion CNY [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the RMB/USD exchange rate, highlighting the factors contributing to the RMB's appreciation and the underlying economic conditions that support this trend [2][4][14]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The RMB experienced a series of fluctuations in 2023, initially appreciating in a weak dollar environment, then depreciating due to tariff concerns, before regaining strength [2]. - The RMB's middle price, onshore price, and offshore price have all shown a tendency to converge towards the 7.0 level, indicating a unified market response [2][4]. Group 2: Core Pillars of RMB Valuation - The three core pillars influencing RMB valuation are the China-US interest rate differential, policy risk premium, and purchasing power parity (PPP) [4]. - The narrowing of the China-US interest rate differential has been a fundamental basis for the RMB's appreciation over the past three months, with the nominal interest rate spread decreasing by nearly 50 basis points [4][5]. - The actual interest rate differential has also narrowed, with China's low inflation levels contrasting with rising inflation in the US, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Chinese assets [5][7]. Group 3: Policy Risk and Market Sentiment - The policy risk premium for Chinese assets is decreasing, while it is rising for US assets, driven by concerns over the independence of the US Federal Reserve [7]. - The stability of RMB assets is becoming a rare value in a globally turbulent macroeconomic environment, as China's reforms and policy stability are expected to further reduce the sovereign risk premium [7][11]. Group 4: Purchasing Power Parity - The RMB is currently undervalued against the USD based on purchasing power parity, with the IMF indicating that 1 USD has the purchasing power equivalent to 3.4 RMB [9]. - Long-term undervaluation is attributed to capital account restrictions and international investor concerns regarding China's economic transition [11]. Group 5: Catalysts for RMB Appreciation - The recent strong performance of the RMB is attributed to both internal and external factors, including the central bank's strong midpoint guidance and geopolitical considerations [14][15]. - The influx of foreign capital into the A-share market, driven by a bullish sentiment, has created additional demand for RMB, contributing to its appreciation [19]. - Companies are accelerating their currency conversion from USD to RMB, as the cost of holding USD increases amid anticipated US interest rate cuts [22]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The weak dollar environment is expected to continue supporting RMB appreciation, although challenges such as declining export expectations and the need for domestic demand recovery remain [25].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the U.S. labor market is showing signs of weakness, with only 22,000 new non-farm jobs added in August, significantly below market expectations, paving the way for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][6] - The report highlights that gold prices have surged over 37% this year, driven by expectations of monetary policy easing and macroeconomic uncertainty, with spot gold breaking through $3,600 per ounce, setting a new historical record [2][9] - The report notes that the U.S. Treasury yields are on a downward trend due to weak employment data, with short-term and long-term yields both declining, indicating a market expectation of further rate cuts [4][21] Commodity Market - Gold prices have reached new highs, with COMEX gold futures closing at $3,600.8 per ounce, supported by declining U.S. Treasury yields and expectations of a rate cut [9][10] - The oil market has experienced significant downward pressure, with WTI crude oil prices dropping from $64.69 per barrel to $61.87 per barrel, amid concerns of oversupply and weak demand [15][16] Bond Market - U.S. Treasury yields have decreased across the board, with the 1-year to 30-year yields falling between 15 to 19 basis points, reflecting market expectations of aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [21][22] - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market is experiencing fluctuations, with short-term yields adjusting more than long-term yields, influenced by market sentiment and policy expectations [23] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index has shown a slight decline, influenced by weak economic data and political uncertainties, with expectations of continued weakness in the dollar [27][28] - The euro has strengthened against the dollar, supported by expectations of a stable European Central Bank policy and moderate economic growth in the Eurozone [37][41] Equity Market - The report notes a mixed performance in global equity markets, with technology stocks benefiting from anticipated rate cuts, while concerns over global economic slowdown and corporate earnings prospects create volatility [51][52] - The Nasdaq index has outperformed due to its high concentration of technology stocks, while European indices have faced downward pressure from economic uncertainties [51][52]