再看加元方面，其走势同样受到内外因素的双重影响。加拿大央行与美联储将在相近时间公布利率决定，这使得市场在会议前 保持谨慎。就国内环境而言，加拿大当前通胀水平和经济节奏相对平稳，并未显现出迫切调整政策的信号，这在一定程度上限 制了加元出现明显趋势性变化的可能。 不过，加元作为典型的商品与贸易相关货币，对外部环境变化尤为敏感。近期有关关税的言论，再次为加元前景蒙上一层阴 影。特朗普提出，如果加拿大与中国达成贸易协议，可能对加拿大商品征收高额关税。这一表态未必意味着政策即将实施，但 其释放的信号本身就足以引发市场警惕。对依赖出口的加拿大而言，贸易环境的不确定性始终是影响货币表现的重要变量。 放在更大的背景下看，全球主要央行当前普遍处于观望阶段。中国央行预计在1月会议上维持关键利率不变，反映出全球货币 政策节奏趋于谨慎。在这样的环境中，汇率波动更多由预期变化和政治因素驱动，而非单纯的利差调整。这也解释了美元/加 元当前走势相对克制的原因。 从美元角度看，其基本面仍具一定支撑。美国经济在此前一段时间内展现出的韧性，使美元在主要货币中依旧保持相对优势。 但与此同时，围绕美联储的政策前景与政治环境，正在对美元情绪形成干扰。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Japanese Prime Minister Sanna Takashi has launched her election campaign with the primary goal of ensuring a smooth voting process on February 8, while avoiding significant fluctuations in the financial markets [1][2][3] Group 1: Election Campaign and Market Stability - The campaign officially commenced on Tuesday, with Takashi aiming to solidify the ruling coalition's majority in the House of Representatives [3] - Recent polls indicate a slight decline in her approval ratings, yet they remain at a relatively high level overall [3] - A Japanese Finance Ministry official noted that any measures to lower bond yields could lead to further depreciation of the yen, increasing imported inflation and raising interest rate pressures [1][2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Government Strategies - Speculation arose last week regarding potential coordinated actions between the U.S. and Japan in the foreign exchange market, which temporarily boosted the yen's exchange rate [3] - There are currently no signs that authorities have engaged in actual intervention, although Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato and U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen have called for calm in the Japanese bond market, which has alleviated upward pressure on yields [3] - Lombard Odier's senior macro strategist Homin Lee stated that once the new cabinet is formed post-election and the annual budget is passed, it will become easier to achieve a balance between managing the yen's exchange rate and Japanese bond yields [4]

Asset Overview - International gold and silver prices have reached historical highs, with gold surpassing $4,990 per ounce and silver closing at $103 per ounce, marking a significant increase in safe-haven demand due to geopolitical uncertainties and a weakening dollar [1][8]. Cross-Asset Analysis - The ongoing U.S.-Europe negotiations regarding Greenland and tariffs have triggered a "TACO" trading environment, leading to significant market volatility. The U.S. dollar index fell by 1.9% during the week, reflecting a shift in market sentiment [7][8]. - Commodities have outperformed equities and bonds, with precious metals leading the gains. The overall commodity index rose by 2.1%, while the CRB commodity index increased by 3.4% [8][34]. Equity Market Performance - The Brazilian IBOVESPA index surged by 8.5%, outperforming other global indices. In contrast, major developed market indices, including the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones, experienced slight declines of 0.4% and 0.5%, respectively [23][25]. - Emerging markets showed resilience, with the A-share market rising by 1.8%, particularly benefiting from small-cap and growth stocks [23][25]. Bond Market Insights - The Chinese bond market exhibited a "bull flattening" trend, with the yield curve shifting downward. The 10-year yield decreased to 1.83%, while the 2-year yield fell to 1.40%, resulting in a narrowing of the 10Y-2Y spread [34][39]. - In contrast, U.S. Treasury yields showed a "bear flattening" pattern, with the 10-year yield rising to 4.24%. The market anticipates a stable interest rate path for 2026, with a potential rate hike in 2027 [34][39]. Commodity and Currency Trends - Commodities continued to rise, with significant gains in gold and silver prices, which have increased by 43.5% and 14.7% year-to-date, respectively [8][34]. - The U.S. dollar's decline has led to appreciation in major non-U.S. currencies, including the euro and yen, which rose by 0.7% and 0.6%, respectively [8][34].

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese yen experienced a significant appreciation against the US dollar due to market speculation about potential coordinated currency intervention by Japan and the US, with the yen rising from approximately 158.4 to 153.9 yen per dollar in a short period [1] Group 1: Currency Market Dynamics - On the Tokyo foreign exchange market, the yen was trading at about 158.4 yen per dollar at the close on the 23rd, and it surged to 153.9 yen per dollar in early trading on the 26th, marking an increase of over 4 yen [1] - There were notable spikes in the yen's exchange rate in both Tokyo and New York markets on the afternoon of the 23rd, leading to speculation about a possible joint intervention by Japanese and US authorities [1] Group 2: Intervention Signals - The term "exchange rate inquiry" was mentioned, indicating that financial authorities may be preparing for intervention by assessing current exchange rates and market conditions, which is seen as a stronger signal than verbal intervention [1] - A representative from a London financial intermediary confirmed that the Federal Reserve conducted an exchange rate inquiry under the direction of the US Treasury, which was reported by various media outlets [1]

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing belief in the market that Japan and the U.S. have begun coordinated actions to curb the excessive depreciation of the yen, leading to increased yen buying activity [2]. Group 1: Yen Exchange Rate Movements - On January 26, the yen reached a level of 153 yen per dollar for the first time in about two and a half months, indicating significant fluctuations in the exchange rate [2]. - The yen briefly surged to nearly 155.6 yen per dollar on January 23, with a notable increase of 2 yen within approximately 10 minutes [4]. - Following initial selling pressure, the yen appreciated again by around 2 yen against the dollar around noon Eastern Time [4]. Group 2: U.S. Intervention - The U.S. Federal Reserve, under the direction of the U.S. Treasury, conducted a "rate check" as a preliminary step before potential foreign exchange intervention [4]. - Reports from financial intermediaries in London confirmed that the U.S. had implemented this rate check, indicating a proactive stance on currency management [4]. Group 3: Japanese Government's Stance - Japanese Prime Minister Kishi Nobuo's comments on January 25 were interpreted by the market as an attempt to restrain yen depreciation, contributing to the acceleration of yen buying activity [5]. - Japan's Deputy Finance Minister, Jun Miura, refrained from confirming the joint implementation of the rate check by Japan and the U.S., emphasizing the importance of ongoing cooperation between the two nations [5].

Group 1 - The US dollar experienced its worst week in nearly eight months, declining 1.7% against a basket of major currencies due to domestic and international policy uncertainties [1] - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, rising nearly 1%, while the South Korean won increased by 1.4%, marking its largest gain in over a month [1] - The Malaysian ringgit reached its highest level since 2018, driven by optimism surrounding artificial intelligence and domestic economic growth [1] Group 2 - Since Prime Minister Fumio Kishida took office, the yen has depreciated over 5% against the dollar, raising concerns about Japan's fiscal health and debt sustainability [2] - Kishida announced plans for tax cuts and increased spending, which have intensified market fears regarding Japan's financial situation [2] - Japanese officials have indicated they are closely monitoring exchange rate fluctuations and may intervene in the currency market if necessary [2][3]

干预预期已在多市场形成连锁反应。汇市方面，美元指数受拖累跌至三个月低点97.7附近，欧元、英镑等非美货币同步走强， 亚洲货币也获得喘息；债市层面，市场担忧日本为干预抛售美债，推升美国10年期国债收益率至4.25%，日债波动有所收敛但 流动性压力未消；贵金属市场则借避险情绪升温，现货黄金突破5000美元/盎司大关，凸显资金对信用资产的担忧。股市呈现 分化，日股受日元升值拖累，出口企业股价承压，美股风险资产则因美元走弱获得部分支撑。 市场对干预效果与持续性的分歧显著。乐观派认为，美日协同释放的强信号的能有效遏制日元投机性下跌，稳定跨市场情绪， 甚至为日本央行争取政策调整窗口。部分机构指出，美国的默许态度是关键，若后续实施直接干预，短期可重塑汇市格局，缓 解日本金融体系压力。 谨慎派则强调干预的局限性，高盛明确表示，单纯汇率干预无法解决根本问题，若日本央行不调整货币政策立场、不改善债市 流动性，日元与日债的长期压力仍难消除。此外，干预可能引发贸易摩擦风险，且美国国内政策诉求存在变数，特朗普政府对 弱势美元的偏好是否持续，也为联合干预的连贯性增添不确定性。 影响后续格局的关键变量持续演化。政策层面，美日是否实施实质性 ...

东京时间23日下午及纽约时间23日上午，东京和纽约外汇市场日元汇率分别出现短时间内大涨的行情， 市场猜测日美或联手进行了汇率询价操作。汇率询价指有关金融货币当局通过央行向银行方面询问当前 汇率和市场状况，被视为外汇干预的准备阶段，是比口头干预更强烈的市场干预信号。 伦敦金融中介公司人士26日表示，美联储在美国财政部的指示下进行了汇率询价。一些媒体报道了汇率 询价消息。（央视新闻） 由于市场警惕日美当局联手干预汇率，抛售日元交易受到抑制，1月26日早盘东京外汇市场日元对美元 汇率大幅跳涨。 日本央行公布的数据显示，东京外汇市场23日收盘时，日元对美元汇率约为158.4比1。26日早盘，该汇 率一度急升至153.9比1，跳涨4日元多。 ...

新华社东京1月26日电（记者刘春燕 李诗萌）由于市场警惕日美当局联手干预汇率，抛售日元交易受 到抑制，26日早盘东京外汇市场日元对美元汇率大幅跳涨。 伦敦金融中介公司人士26日在接受《日本经济新闻》采访时证实，美联储在美国财政部的指示下进行了 汇率询价。路透社等媒体报道了汇率询价消息。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:王萌萌】 日本央行公布的数据显示，东京外汇市场23日收盘时，日元对美元汇率约为158.4比1。26日早盘，该汇 率一度急升至153.9比1，跳涨4日元多。 东京时间23日下午及纽约时间23日上午，东京和纽约外汇市场日元汇率分别出现短时间内大涨的行情， 市场猜测日美或联手进行了汇率询价操作。汇率询价指有关金融货币当局通过央行向银行方面询问当前 汇率和市场状况, 被视为外汇干预的准备阶段，是比口头干预更强烈的市场干预信号。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc (CHF) continues to strengthen against the US Dollar (USD), driven by its safe-haven appeal amid geopolitical tensions and diverging monetary policies between the US and Switzerland [1][2]. Group 1: Currency Movement - The USD/CHF exchange rate has shown a downward trend, breaking the key support level of 0.7752 and reaching a low of 0.7740, marking a new low for the period [1]. - The USD has faced selling pressure, with the exchange rate trading at 0.7767, reflecting a daily decline of 0.4358% [1]. - The CHF's safe-haven status is highlighted by ongoing global geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment regarding economic recovery, leading to increased demand for the CHF [1]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Divergence - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has maintained a 0% policy interest rate, with expectations that this will remain until at least the second half of 2027, despite weak inflation indicators [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 50 basis points in 2026, with the first cut anticipated in June, which narrows the interest rate differential and pressures the USD/CHF exchange rate [2]. - Swiss inflation remains weak, with January CPI showing a slight increase of 0.1% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.8% year-on-year, indicating mild deflationary pressures [2]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The short-term outlook for USD/CHF is bearish, with the price below the 0.78 level and no significant support levels below [2]. - Key support is identified at the 0.7740 low, and a break below this level could lead to further declines towards the 0.7700 mark [2]. - Resistance is seen at the 0.7800 level, which is crucial for any potential upward movement; failure to break above this level may hinder any rebound [2]. Group 4: Future Monitoring - Upcoming events to watch include the SNB's monetary policy meeting on March 19 and subsequent inflation and manufacturing data from Switzerland, as increased deflationary pressure could prompt a dovish shift in SNB policy [3]. - Monitoring of Federal Reserve officials' statements and US economic data is essential, as a rebound in the USD index could provide a temporary boost to the USD/CHF exchange rate [3].