｜2025年12月19日星期五｜ NO.1中信证券：技术迭代推动液冷渗透看好国产厂商突破 中金公司（601995）认为，展望2026年，猪业新范式有望进一步强化。猪价新范式方面，或继续验证周 期长度缩短、振幅收敛、波动下降的价格特征，2026年猪价或温和回落，龙头或有望保持全年盈利；成 长新范式方面，生猪龙头"成长新范式"迎来机遇期，成长与价值属性双升；投资新范式方面，板块投资 从纯周期思维向周期与价值思维兼顾切换，低成本、大体量龙头企业估值体系持续重塑，龙头企业有望 持续跑赢行业。 NO.3中金：预计2026年煤价将呈现前低后高走势 12月19日，中金公司研报称，预计2026年煤价将呈现前低后高走势，全年中枢可能与2025年基本持平。 需求端或是主要拖累因素，但供给侧约束相对较强。上半年受政策传导滞后和季节性影响，需求可能偏 平淡，煤价或有一定压力；下半年需求有望边际改善，驱动煤价上行。 中信证券研报指出，2025年以来，在AI服务器功耗和芯片功率大幅提升的背景下，液冷方案凭借更高 的散热效率、更低的PUE，正逐步成为数据中心节能降耗的主流技术路径。中信证券预测，随着液冷加 速渗透叠加技术升级ASP提升，2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous improvement of Google's AI ecosystem, with the release of TPUv7 Ironwood and Gemini 3 series models, which are expected to drive demand for liquid cooling solutions and enhance market expansion [3][4] - There is a strong demand for TPU, with companies like Anthropic and Meta planning to rent TPU chips from Google, indicating a significant market opportunity [4] - The AI sector is expected to boost the demand for optical fibers and cables, leading to a potential price recovery in this segment [5] - The report emphasizes three core investment themes: "Optical, Liquid Cooling, and Domestic Computing Power," while also highlighting opportunities in satellite and edge AI [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report indicates a positive outlook for the industry, with a focus on the advancements in AI technology and its implications for related sectors [1] Market Trends - The demand for TPU is increasing, with notable partnerships and rental agreements being established, which will likely enhance ASIC demand [4] - The AI-driven growth is expected to elevate the usage of optical fibers and cables, particularly in data center interconnects and metropolitan area networks [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include Invec (leader in liquid cooling solutions), with beneficiaries such as Feilong Co., Dayuan Pump Industry, Lingyun Co., and others in the optical fiber and cable sector [4][5][6]

证券日报网讯 12月18日，飞龙股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司液冷领域客户具体情况请 关注公司《2025年半年度报告》。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

证券日报网讯12月18日，铭利达（301268）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，由于公司的制造工艺涉 及压铸、型材、注塑等，不同的工艺领域均涉及相应的研发开支，涉及行业包括新能源汽车、光伏、储 能、安防、消费类电子及液冷等。 ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a significant rebound on Wednesday, with Muxi Co. (688802 CH) surging 692% on its debut[3] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 233 points (+0.92%) to close at 25,468 points, driven by technology and consumer stocks[12] - U.S. stocks fell sharply, with the Dow Jones down 228 points (-0.47%) and the S&P 500 down 1.16%[10] Economic Indicators - U.S. inflation data is anticipated to influence the Federal Reserve's stance on further rate cuts, with expectations of a CPI increase exceeding 3%[31] - The UK inflation rate dropped to an eight-month low, exceeding expectations, which has bolstered market rate cut predictions[6] Commodity and Currency Movements - International oil prices rebounded from a four-and-a-half-year low, with NY crude oil rising 1.21% to $55.94 per barrel[28] - Gold prices approached record highs, with NY gold increasing by 0.96% to $4,347.5 per ounce[28] Fixed Income Market - U.S. Treasury yields showed mixed results, with the 10-year yield rising by 0.8 basis points to 4.15%[31] - The auction for 20-year U.S. Treasury bonds was lackluster, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.67, below the average of 2.73[31] Sector Performance - In the U.S., the technology sector led declines, with the information technology index falling 2.19%[10] - In Asia, the KOSPI index in South Korea rose by 1.4% to 4,056.4 points, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 1.19%[22] Corporate Highlights - Micron Technology (MU US) reported a strong earnings outlook, with Q1 EPS exceeding market expectations by 16%[9] - MongoDB (MDB US) announced significant revenue growth and raised its full-year guidance, driven by an increase in AI-native customer acquisitions[9] Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. is reportedly preparing to impose new sanctions on Russia amid ongoing geopolitical tensions[6] - The EU has upgraded its economic security framework, indicating a rise in trade disruption probabilities[6]

Core Insights - The report indicates a "relatively hot" market sentiment with a composite score of 67, suggesting strong investor confidence and market activity [6][10][22] - Key themes identified include liquid cooling technology, banking sector stability, and the brokerage industry's focus on high-quality development [6][10] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment temperature indicator shows a score of 67, categorized as "relatively hot," indicating active market conditions [10][22] - Historical sentiment trends suggest that scores below 30 provide market support, while scores above 70 may indicate resistance [10] Hot Topics Tracking 1. **Liquid Cooling Theme**: The upcoming AIDC Liquid Cooling Industry Chain Conference highlights the shift towards liquid cooling technology in AI, with companies like NVIDIA adopting this approach. Related stocks include Yingwei Technology (002837) and Feilong Co., Ltd. (002536) [6] 2. **Banking Sector**: The China Securities Bank Index boasts a dividend yield of 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield, making bank stocks attractive for long-term investors amid economic slowdown. Key stocks include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [6] 3. **Brokerage Industry**: Recent regulatory comments emphasize a focus on quality over scale, encouraging differentiation among smaller firms. Notable stocks include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan (601211) [6] Capital Flow Analysis - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow, with Zhongji Xuchuang (300308) leading at 142,575.18 million, followed closely by Xinyi Technology (300502) at 142,158.04 million [11] - Conversely, the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Pingtan Development (000592) with -145,884.75 million, indicating investor caution in certain sectors [14] Industry Overview - The report highlights the electronic and communication sectors as having significant net buying activity, while industries such as food and beverage, and automotive are experiencing notable net outflows [21][23]

Summary of Liquid Cooling Technology Conference Call Industry Overview - The liquid cooling technology in data centers has seen significant growth driven by NVIDIA (NV) and ASIC, with NV's ML 72 cabinet liquid cooling ratio increasing from 70% in GB 200 to 100% in GB 300, indicating a strong market demand in North America [2][3] - Major tech companies like Meta, Google, and OpenAI are increasing their demand for liquid cooling solutions, leading to a substantial market opportunity [4][8] Key Insights and Arguments - Google has raised its TPU guidance multiple times in 2025, which is expected to create a demand for millions of 1.6T optical modules, resulting in a new liquid cooling demand of 15-20 billion RMB. By 2026, Google's liquid cooling market space could exceed 40 billion RMB, potentially reaching 60-70 billion RMB by 2027 [2][5] - In the liquid cooling sector, Invec is positioned to become a core supplier for Google due to its comprehensive supply chain layout, NV certification, and experience in delivering integrated solutions [6] - Other companies such as Yinlun, Tongfei, Gaolan, Shenling, Feilong, and Far East are also expected to enter the overseas supply chain and benefit from the growth in the liquid cooling market [7] Future Development Prospects - The liquid cooling sector is projected to grow significantly, with an estimated market space of 80 billion RMB from 100,000 cabinets, assuming each cabinet is valued at 800,000 RMB [4][8] - The increase in bidding volumes in the domestic AI and AIGC sectors indicates a positive trend, with significant order growth for related switch companies [9] - Invec's revenue from liquid cooling has rapidly increased, with a fourfold growth in 2022 and threefold growth in 2023, and is expected to exceed 200 million RMB in the first half of 2025 [4][12] Additional Important Points - The liquid cooling market is expected to reach over 20 billion RMB globally this year, with projections of 120-140 billion RMB in the following year [12] - Invec has established itself as a key player in the industry, having entered the NVIDIA supply chain and developed various cooling solutions, including water cooling and indirect evaporative cooling [12][13] - The company is expanding its production capacity and enhancing its competitiveness by building new headquarters and accelerating overseas resource platform development [13] This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call regarding the liquid cooling technology industry and its key players.

Core Viewpoint - The liquid cooling industry is approaching a significant turning point, with expectations for explosive growth in 2024, marking it as the "year of liquid cooling" [1]. Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The demand for liquid cooling components from NVIDIA is expected to double next year, indicating a substantial market opportunity for domestic manufacturers [2]. - Domestic manufacturers are likely to gain unexpected market share, with projections for certain companies' market share increasing from 5-8% to potentially 10-15% [2]. - The collaboration between domestic companies and Taiwanese/American firms for OEM production is anticipated to ensure supply stability, with expected overflow in cold plate manufacturing reaching several billion [2]. Group 2: Key Projects and Collaborations - Meta's Prometheus project is showing signs of acceleration, with domestic liquid cooling leaders poised to capture significant market share due to the project's large scale and favorable procurement model [2]. - Google is projected to procure liquid cooling cabinets worth approximately $3-3.5 billion, with a target of 40,000 units, highlighting the collaboration potential with domestic liquid cooling leaders [2]. Group 3: Growth Potential of Leading Companies - Delta's revenue from liquid cooling is projected to reach around 1 billion RMB in 2024, with expectations to grow tenfold to 10 billion RMB by 2025, and further doubling by 2026, indicating a strong growth trajectory for domestic liquid cooling manufacturers [3].

Group 1: Institutional Trading Insights - On the institutional trading leaderboard, 43 stocks were listed, with 23 experiencing net buying and 20 facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were: Juguang Technology (291 million), Shennan Circuit (173 million), and Hualing Cable (125 million) [1] - Shennan Circuit is recognized as a leading domestic IC substrate manufacturer and a major supplier of RF power amplifier PCBs for wireless base stations globally [1] Group 2: Liquid Cooling Technology - Yidong Electronics has developed liquid cooling structures and modules for high-density GPU servers and AI data centers [1] - Yingweike's liquid cooling server pipeline products have achieved V0-level standards and received UL certification, positioning the company as a supplier for NVIDIA's data center components [1] - CICC believes that the launch of Google TPUv7 signifies a shift towards self-developed ASIC clusters, which may accelerate the growth of the AI computing hardware market, including PCBs and liquid cooling systems [1] Group 3: Lithium Battery Sector - Shengxin Lithium Energy's SDLA salt lake project in Argentina has an annual production capacity of 2,500 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, with normal production conditions [2] - The company is also investing in multiple exploration projects in Argentina, including Pocitos and Arizaro salt lake projects [2] - The company is closely monitoring solid-state battery technology and is developing relevant materials to support future advancements in this area [3] Group 4: Lithium Market Dynamics - On December 17, lithium carbonate futures prices surged, with the main contract increasing by 7% to 108,020 yuan per ton [4] - The Yichun Natural Resources Bureau announced plans to revoke 27 mining rights, raising concerns about a potential supply contraction in lithium resources [4] - Huaxi Securities noted that the revocation of mining rights in Yichun, a key lithium mining area, will directly reduce effective lithium supply, while demand from electric vehicles and energy storage continues to grow [4]

| 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证5( | | --- | --- | --- | | 3870.28 | 13224.51 | 1439.0 | | +45.47 +1.19% +309.85 +2.40% -0.63 -0 | | | | 科创20 | 创业板指 | 万得全/ | | 1325.33 | 3175.91 | 6231.5 | | +31.95 +2.47% +104.15 +3.39% +94.46 +1 | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A5( | | 4579.88 | 7137.83 | 5520.7 | | +82.32 +1.83% +136.52 +1.95% +105.85 +1 | | | | 中证1000 | 中证2000 | 中证红和 | | 7288.74 | 3063.86 | 5429.6 | | +107.12 +1.49% +22.86 +0.75% +15.36 +0 | | | | 涨幅榜 | 资金净流入 | 5日涨幅* | | --- | --- | --- | | 通信设备 | 化肥农药 | 电子元器 | | +5.02% | +3 ...