人民财讯12月10日电，近日，在中欧基金2026年度投资策略会上，中欧权益研究部副总监、基金经理任 飞表示，与以往经济周期不同，当前有两股趋势性力量正在形成额外的电力需求：一是AI数据中心的 快速扩张，二是再工业化带来的高耗能产业转移与供应链重建。这两者均独立于传统经济波动，且增速 显著。从中远期来看，全球在未来几年需要额外消耗的用电需求或将面临巨大提升。 在此逻辑下，任飞认为有三大方向值得关注：一是供给约束，电解铝等高耗能行业或受直接限制；二是 需求提振，全球性电力紧张推升光伏、储能需求，2027-2028年海外储能市场或迎增长；三是中国优 势，中国电力供应相对充裕，高耗能制造业成本与供应链优势将进一步凸显。 ...

常纪文说，面对欧盟碳边境调节机制等国际绿色贸易要求，我国可将钢铁、电解铝、化工等面临减排压力的产业，与风光发电基地进行区位耦合，或利用跨 区域输送的绿电开展低碳转型。 国务院发展研究中心资源与环境政策研究所副所长常纪文在会上发言。（王吉如 摄） 依托系统的能源优势打造系统的产业优势成为工作抓手。常纪文说，面对欧盟碳边境调节机制等国际绿色贸易要求，我国可将钢铁、电解铝、化工等面临减 排压力的产业，与风光发电基地进行区位耦合，或利用跨区域输送的绿电开展低碳转型。"耦合路径必须立足本地资源禀赋，发展具有能源特色的重化工业 升级版，将清洁能源优势转化为产业竞争优势。" 先行实践已展开探索。常纪文在演讲中介绍，中石化在鄂尔多斯启动的全球最大绿氢耦合煤化工项目，该项目通过风光发电制氢，每年可减少二氧化碳排放 143万吨；全国首条跨省绿氢管道"内蒙古—京津冀"示范工程已获批，建成后年输氢能力可达50万吨，为石化、炼化等产业提供绿氢替代。此外，福田氢燃 料重卡已应用于京津塘高速干线物流，湖北黄石率先投放氢能源两轮车，意味着氢能正从工业领域走向民生交通领域。 新华财经广州12月9日电（记者印朋、吕光一）"统筹构建新型能源体系和 ...

该行测算2025Q4至2026Q4潜在新增有效产能约为246.1万吨，在扣除因电力合同困境或电气设备故障预 计减产20-70万吨后，全球2026年实际贡献新增产量仅86-125万吨，较经该行预测的2025年全球产量增 长仅1.2%至1.7%;在逆全球化背景下，该行认为区域性的供需错配将进一步加快全球铝产业链重塑，海 外铝锭库存或在近几年或稳步走高，这将成为"新的需求"，而当下(2025.11)的铜铝比价(3.8)意味着铝价 更多受到铜价上涨的牵引，铝行业有望享受"铝代铜"带来的需求增量，以及自身电力成本刚性所形成的 利润壁垒这双重红利。 观点四：我国电解铝企业正在经历从周期股向红利资产转变的关键节点 电解铝板块自2021年以来进入去杠杆周期，行业从"增量竞争"转向"存量优化"。企业无法再通过扩张规 模来竞争，资本开支逐年回落。供需格局在产能受限和需求(如新能源汽车、光伏)支撑下趋于紧平衡， 行业利润维持在较高水平，为企业改善资产负债表提供了充足的现金流，随着企业资本开支率 (CAPEX/EBITA)的下行，财务结构更为健康，持续分红具备了有利条件，整体电解铝行业股息率有望 进一步提升。 观点二：我国电解铝供给 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the outlook for the non-ferrous metals industry in 2026, predicting a vibrant year with strong performance expected, likely not inferior to 2025. The macroeconomic environment is favorable, with the US economy projected to experience GDP growth and continued liquidity easing, including potential interest rate cuts and expansive fiscal policies. The global manufacturing PMI has rebounded above 50, indicating a positive trend in manufacturing [2][4] Key Insights and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Conditions**: The US is expected to implement two to three interest rate cuts in 2026, with high deficits and loose fiscal policies likely to persist in the short term. This environment is beneficial for most commodities, especially those without severe supply-side excesses [4] - **China's Economic Outlook**: China's export pressures are expected to ease, with a gradual convergence in the real estate market's downward trend. Domestic liquidity is anticipated to align with global trends, creating a favorable environment for commodities, particularly those with supply-side constraints [5] - **Gold Market**: The marginal pricing of gold is changing, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, currently at about 20% of total reserves, which is below the historical median. Gold prices are expected to maintain a stable or upward trend, potentially exceeding $4,800 in 2026 [7] - **Aluminum Market**: Global electrolytic aluminum production is projected to increase by approximately 1.2 million tons in 2026, with demand growth outpacing supply growth. This is expected to lead to further price increases due to low inventory levels [8][9] - **Copper Market**: The global copper supply is expected to increase by about 600,000 tons in 2026, with demand growth projected at 2.7%. Copper prices are anticipated to exceed $12,000, with potential to reach $13,000, driven by low inventory and strong demand [10][11] Additional Important Content - **Steel Industry Dynamics**: The construction sector's demand for steel has decreased, but export demand remains strong. Overall steel demand is expected to be neutral, with a potential slight decline or increase depending on market conditions. The iron ore price is projected to average above $90 per ton, with a slow downward trend [12] - **Investment Strategies**: For the steel sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies with low valuations and good profitability, while the aluminum sector is seen as undervalued but with high dividend yields. Both sectors are considered worthy of investment [14] - **Concerns about Substitute Materials**: The potential for substitutes like aluminum replacing copper is deemed overstated, as technological advancements and industry standards make such transitions difficult. The market is showing increased interest in non-ferrous metals, indicating a positive outlook for related stocks [13] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the non-ferrous metals industry and its future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The market is transitioning towards a "spring rally" with potential catalysts emerging, particularly as the year-end approaches and new policies are anticipated [2][13]. Group 1: Market Trends and Strategies - The strategy for 2026 emphasizes embracing "Galloping Assets" which are global competitive leaders, indicating a shift towards value reassessment [1][12]. - The A-share market has shown a recovery with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 10% to above 3800 points [1][12]. - The current market phase is characterized by a period of observation and consolidation, with the potential for a spring rally to begin as early as December [2][13]. Group 2: Spring Rally Insights - The "spring rally" is expected to occur around the Lunar New Year, typically 1-2 weeks prior, with historical data suggesting a strong upward trend during this period [3][5]. - The likelihood of a spring rally varies based on market conditions: high during bottom-stimulus periods, moderate during continuation phases, and limited during downturns [4][6]. - Key indicators for the timing of the rally include significant new positive or negative developments, with potential early triggers in December [6][10]. Group 3: Sector and Style Preferences - The market favors smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000, which have shown a nearly 90% success rate with an average excess return of over 4% [6][19]. - Growth and technology sectors are highlighted as having an 80% success rate, also with an average excess return of over 4% [7][19]. - The top-performing industries are expected to be in the first tier: computer, communication, and electronics, with a second tier including machinery, chemicals, and military industries, all showing excess returns of over 3% [8][19]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Directions - The focus for long-term investments includes quality cyclical stocks benefiting from policy expectations in sectors like real estate, consumer goods, and resources [10][20]. - The strategy for the upcoming year includes a focus on "Galloping Assets" that align with China's economic transformation and global competition, particularly in technology, high-end manufacturing, consumption, and resource sectors [10][20].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7% to 3902.81, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.08% to 13147.68, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.36% to 3109.30 [1][2] - A total of 4427 stocks closed higher, while 914 stocks closed lower, indicating a positive market sentiment [1][3] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.73 trillion, an increase of 176.8 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Performance Metrics - The 20-day performance for the Shanghai Composite Index showed a decline of 2.37%, while the Shenzhen Component Index experienced a decrease of 1.91% [2] - The annual performance for the Shanghai Composite Index is up by 16.44%, and the Shenzhen Component Index has increased by 26.24% [2] - The ChiNext Index has seen a significant annual increase of 45.19% [2] Sector Performance - Sectors such as insurance, precious metals, and commercial aerospace showed strong gains, while traditional sectors like Chinese medicine and film exhibition faced declines [2] - The electric aluminum concept stocks experienced volatility, with companies like Hongchuang Holdings and Yun Aluminum reaching historical highs [2] - The robotics sector saw a rebound, with companies like Boke Technology rising over 10% [2] Notable Stock Movements - The stock of Moer Thread opened high with a 468% increase, leading to significant profits for investors [2] - Companies in the Fujian sector, such as Sanmu Group and Haixin Food, reached their daily limit [2] - The AI glasses concept saw a surge, with Doctor's Glasses rising over 10% [2] Market Sentiment - The overall market sentiment is improving, with a board sealing rate close to 80% [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 35.5 billion for investment projects, indicating government support for economic growth [2]

Market Overview - A total of 73 stocks hit the daily limit up, while 21 stocks faced limit down, resulting in a sealing rate of 78%. Notable stocks include Sun Cable and Anji Food with four consecutive limit ups, and Longzhou Co., Guoji Heavy Industry, and Junya Technology with three consecutive limit ups [1][3] - The market showed signs of recovery, with the ChiNext index rising over 1%. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges recorded a trading volume of 1.73 trillion yuan, an increase of 176.8 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.7%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.08%, and the ChiNext Index gained 1.36% [1] Stock Performance Analysis - The upgrade rate for consecutive limit-up stocks reached 70%, with seven stocks achieving three or more consecutive limit ups. High-level stocks showed unexpected recovery, with previously halted stocks like Hai Xin Food and Shunhao Co. achieving limit ups again [3][4] - The sectors that performed well included insurance, precious metals, Fujian, and commercial aerospace, while banking, traditional Chinese medicine, and film and television sectors faced declines [1][3] Sector Highlights - The commercial aerospace sector continues to gain momentum, with companies like Longzhou Co. and Aerospace Machinery achieving significant gains. Upcoming launches of new commercial rockets are expected to provide ongoing support for this sector [5] - The optical communication sector remains strong, with companies like Lumentum and Coherent reaching historical highs. The demand for optical chips is projected to grow significantly due to advancements in AI and computing technologies [6][20] - The non-ferrous metals sector is experiencing robust performance, with copper and aluminum prices reaching new highs. The demand for copper is particularly strong, driven by global supply constraints [8][22] Financial Sector Developments - The financial regulatory authority announced adjustments to risk factors for insurance companies, leading to a significant rally in the non-bank financial sector. The insurance sector saw gains of over 5%, with China Ping An nearing previous highs [7] - The fintech sector is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating that Chinese residents' financial assets will reach 440 trillion yuan by 2030, growing at an annual rate of 8% [30] Consumer Goods and Food Sector - The food and beverage sector is benefiting from government initiatives to expand quality goods and services. Stocks like Xiwang Food and Yuanzi Co. have shown positive performance [33][34] - The home decoration sector is also seeing growth, with significant increases in furniture and appliance sales reported [35][36]

Group 1: Supply-Side Reform Background - The supply-side reform aims to address excessive capacity in the midstream and upstream sectors after a decade of expansion in export manufacturing and significant infrastructure investment[1] - In 2015, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises in China fell to 74%, below the international standard of 75% for severe overcapacity[8] - By 2015, 13 out of 14 major industrial sectors were experiencing severe overcapacity, particularly in heavy industries like steel and coal[9] Group 2: Causes of Overcapacity - Overcapacity was primarily driven by excessive external and internal demand expansion, leading to abnormal capacity growth[2] - Local governments, incentivized by GDP growth targets, contributed to overcapacity by supporting state-owned enterprises in upstream investments[2] - The overcapacity issue was exacerbated by repeated construction of heavy industrial projects, driven by local government interests in boosting GDP and tax revenues[10] Group 3: Economic Impact - From 2012 to 2015, domestic industrial prices plummeted, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) recording negative values for three consecutive years[10] - By 2015, the total debt in six overcapacity industries reached 10 trillion yuan, with 8.7 trillion yuan classified as debt[15] - The banking sector faced rising non-performing loan rates, with the total non-performing loan balance reaching 1.2744 trillion yuan by the end of 2015, a 51.2% increase from the previous year[65] Group 4: Capacity Reduction Strategies - The reform included three main strategies: administrative capacity reduction, industry self-discipline with staggered production, and market-driven natural clearance[17][18][79] - Administrative measures focused on controlling new capacity, eliminating outdated capacity, and encouraging enterprise restructuring, particularly in state-dominated sectors like steel and coal[17] - The steel industry saw a reduction of 120 million tons of crude steel capacity from 2016 to 2017, achieving 80% of its capacity reduction target[28] Group 5: Outcomes of Supply-Side Reform - The steel industry's capacity utilization improved significantly, with the industry concentration rising to 60% by 2020[29] - The coal industry eliminated 810 million tons of capacity between 2016 and 2018, exceeding the targets set for the 13th Five-Year Plan[30] - The cement industry's profits increased from 33 billion yuan in 2015 to 154.6 billion yuan in 2018, reflecting improved pricing and profitability[33]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous and steel sectors, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in these industries [9][10]. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that a cross-year market for gold and copper may unfold, making it an opportune time to invest in non-ferrous metals [9][10]. - It highlights that the copper supply shortage is expected to continue, which may drive up copper prices, while strict control over smelting capacity could lead to improved profitability for midstream players [9][10]. - The report also emphasizes the bullish outlook for gold prices, projecting a rise to $4,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 and potentially exceeding $5,000 per ounce in 2026 [9][10]. - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, the report suggests that despite recent stock dilution, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain intact, presenting opportunities for investment [9][10]. Summary by Sections Non-Ferrous Metals - The report notes a 3.37% increase in the non-ferrous metals sector, driven by a significant rise in copper prices due to supply constraints and inflation expectations [9][10]. - It highlights the historical high copper premium set by Codelco, which is expected to further tighten supply [9][10]. - The report recommends focusing on investment opportunities in copper, gold, and aluminum sectors [9][10]. Steel Industry - The report indicates a slight decrease in iron and steel production, with rebar consumption at 2.28 million tons, down 1.23% week-on-week but up 1.15% year-on-year [16][21]. - It mentions that overall steel inventory continues to decline, with total social and steel mill inventories down by 2.15% [23][24]. - The profitability of most steel products has significantly improved due to rising costs, with the average price index for common steel rising by 0.42% [26][35]. New Energy Metals - The report states that lithium carbonate production in October 2025 saw a significant year-on-year increase of 67.28%, indicating strong supply growth [39][40]. - It also notes that the production of new energy vehicles continues to grow, with October 2025 production reaching 1.68 million units, up 19.94% year-on-year [43][46]. - The report highlights price increases in lithium and cobalt, with lithium carbonate priced at 93,300 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.27% week-on-week [49][50].

Group 1 - The current A-share bull market is part of a six-year global liquidity expansion driven by post-2020 monetary easing, with systemic revaluation of key assets such as gold, US tech stocks, and European/Japanese manufacturing [1][11] - The return of cross-border capital to China is expected to systematically reassess the competitive advantages of Chinese manufacturing, particularly in sectors like new energy, chemicals, and medical devices [2][12] - The A-share market is likely to experience volatility in 2026, with either a stagnation of the bull market or a "Davis Double Play" in consumer sectors, as external exports may not drive profits due to high base effects [3][13] Group 2 - The industrialization maturity phase in China has led to a bull market for core assets, driven by improved domestic consumption and the ability of manufacturing to generate national wealth through exports [4][14] - The recommendation for industry allocation focuses on a combination of "existing," "new," and "high" sectors, emphasizing non-ferrous metals, new consumption trends, and high-end manufacturing [5][14] Group 3 - The investment logic for China Hongqiao includes short-term price increases in electrolytic aluminum and long-term growth driven by integrated operations and high dividends [17][19] - For Luoyang Molybdenum, the investment rationale is based on the rising copper cycle and diversified product offerings, with a focus on sustainable growth [20][22] - Huafeng Aluminum is positioned for growth through high-end aluminum processing and international expansion, capitalizing on trends in the automotive sector [25][28] Group 4 - Nanjing Steel's strategy involves creating a fully integrated supply chain and exploring new growth points to stabilize returns on equity [29][32] - Dongfang Tower's investment logic is driven by rising prices of potassium chloride and phosphate rock, with ongoing capacity expansion [33][36] - Luxshare Precision is transitioning to an AI hardware manufacturer, benefiting from increased demand for computing power and AI models [37][40] Group 5 - Great Wall Motors is focusing on high-end SUVs and global expansion, with new model launches expected to drive sales [41][44] - Leap Motor is leveraging competitive pricing and differentiation in the domestic and overseas markets, with new models and subsidies supporting growth [45][48] - Heng Rui Pharmaceutical is advancing its clinical pipeline with over 100 innovative products, aiming for significant growth through international collaborations and new product approvals [49][51] Group 6 - Yifeng Pharmacy is expected to improve its market share through enhanced operational efficiency and strategic store adjustments [54][59] - Dongfang Electric is positioned to benefit from rising global demand for gas turbines, driven by AI-related power needs [60][63]