Company Analysis - Hesai Technology (HSAI US) reported a robust performance in Q3 2025 with total revenue reaching 795.4 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 47%, exceeding Bloomberg consensus by 1.4% [2] - The non-GAAP net profit was 288 million RMB, while the adjusted net profit, excluding one-time gains from an early-stage tech investment, was 140 million RMB [2] - The management raised the 2025 GAAP net profit guidance to 350-450 million RMB from the previous 200-350 million RMB, reflecting optimism about business growth [5] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,696, up 0.18% for the day and 33.08% year-to-date [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.39% to 4,003, with the Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.47% to 2,518 [2] - Southbound capital inflow into Hong Kong stocks was 4.467 billion HKD, with notable net purchases in Xiaomi Group, China Mobile, and CNOOC [4] Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China indicated a commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, with expectations of a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut in December and two interest rate cuts totaling 20 basis points next year [4] - In the U.S., the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, driven by the Senate's approval of a budget bill to end the government shutdown, which is expected to reduce policy uncertainty [4] - U.S. economic data showed a decline in private sector employment by 45,000, marking the largest drop in two and a half years, contributing to a decrease in the dollar index [4] Industry Insights - China Hongqiao (1378 HK) is expected to see further valuation uplift due to nearly full capacity utilization of its aluminum production and stable raw material costs, prompting an upward revision of profit forecasts by 4-5% for 2025-2027 [5] - Hongteng Precision (6088 HK) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by strong demand for AI products and automotive business, leading to a record gross margin of 23.5% [5] - The target price for Hesai Technology has been set at 26.7 USD, based on a 5.3x sales multiple for 2026, reflecting a 10% premium over industry peers due to its competitive advantages and strong revenue growth prospects [5]

Core Viewpoint - Huatai Securities maintains a positive outlook on China Hongqiao's profitability, projecting net profits of 25.63 billion, 25.43 billion, and 25.76 billion yuan for 2025-2027, respectively, and sets a target price of 35.22 HKD based on a 12X PE ratio for 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance and Strategy - China Hongqiao has a significant integrated production capacity with 19 million tons of alumina and approximately 6.46 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, which helps mitigate the impact of declining alumina prices [2] - The company has a strong commitment to shareholder returns, having repurchased 1.87 million shares for 2.6 billion HKD and planning to initiate a new round of buybacks totaling at least 3 billion HKD [4] - The company has maintained a high dividend payout ratio over the past three years, with rates of 46.8%, 47.0%, and 63.4%, reflecting confidence in future growth [4] Group 2: Industry Outlook - The domestic electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained, leading to a tightening supply-demand balance, with expectations for further tightening by 2026 due to strong demand in sectors like automotive and power grids [5] - The average profit margin in the electrolytic aluminum sector is expected to continue expanding, benefiting China Hongqiao's performance as the company focuses on both alumina and electrolytic aluminum [5] - The company is involved in overseas projects, including a joint venture in Guinea for bauxite mining and a controlled alumina production capacity in Indonesia, which are expected to contribute significantly to profits by 2025 [3]

Group 1: Aluminum Market Overview - The main contract for Shanghai aluminum futures continues to rebound, but the upward space for aluminum prices should not be overestimated due to the deepening off-season effect in consumption [1] - In October, domestic electrolytic aluminum production reached 3.7421 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a month-on-month increase of 3.52% [1] - The operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum remained stable at 4.406 million tons, with total built capacity at 4.584 million tons as of the end of October [1] Group 2: Import and Inventory Dynamics - In September, China's primary aluminum imports were 246,840.85 tons, showing a month-on-month increase of 14.36% and a year-on-year increase of 80.07% [2] - Russia was the largest source of imports, accounting for 71.26% of total imports in September, with a significant year-on-year increase of 97.44% [2] - As of November 10, domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 627,000 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous week but increasing by 35,000 tons from the end of September [2] Group 3: Production Costs and Profitability - The average production cost of electrolytic aluminum in October was 16,119.03 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% month-on-month [3] - The average profit for the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in October was 4,908 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month growth of 13.07% [3] - By November 10, the instantaneous profit had risen to 5,392.87 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4,553.95 yuan/ton year-on-year [3] Group 4: Automotive Industry Insights - The Chinese automotive industry is transitioning to a new cycle of stable development and structural optimization, with September production and sales surpassing 3 million units for the first time [4] - New energy vehicle sales accounted for 49.7% of total new vehicle sales in September, with significant year-on-year growth [4] - The market is expected to maintain steady growth, with total vehicle sales projected to reach 32.9 million units by 2025, a year-on-year increase of 4.7% [4] Group 5: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The domestic electrolytic aluminum market is experiencing a seasonal transition, with high aluminum prices suppressing downstream purchasing intentions [5] - Demand is showing a clear divergence, with construction and photovoltaic sectors remaining weak, while automotive lightweighting and energy storage orders are relatively stable [6] - Despite a slight accumulation in aluminum ingot inventory, the absolute level remains low compared to historical data, providing some support for aluminum prices [6]

Group 1 - Zhongfu Industrial experienced a decline of 5.06% on November 11, with a stock price of 6.94 CNY per share, a trading volume of 777 million CNY, a turnover rate of 2.76%, and a total market capitalization of 27.815 billion CNY [1] - The company, founded on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, is based in Gongyi City, Henan Province, and its main business includes coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: non-ferrous metals 94.76%, electricity 9.96%, coal 2.71%, and other businesses 0.47% [1] Group 2 - E Fund has one fund heavily invested in Zhongfu Industrial, specifically the E Fund Resource Industry Mixed Fund (110025), which increased its holdings by 1.0085 million shares in the third quarter, bringing the total to 8.8302 million shares, accounting for 2.83% of the fund's net value [2] - The estimated floating loss for the fund today is approximately 3.2672 million CNY [2] - The E Fund Resource Industry Mixed Fund (110025) was established on August 16, 2011, with a current size of 1.618 billion CNY, and has achieved a year-to-date return of 52.27%, ranking 868 out of 8147 in its category [2]

Group 1 - Zhongfu Industrial Co., Ltd. experienced a decline of 5.06% on November 11, with a stock price of 6.94 CNY per share, a trading volume of 777 million CNY, a turnover rate of 2.76%, and a total market capitalization of 27.815 billion CNY [1] - The company, established on January 28, 1997, and listed on June 26, 2002, is located in Gongyi City, Henan Province, and its main business includes coal mining, thermal power generation, electrolytic aluminum, and deep processing of aluminum products [1] - The revenue composition of Zhongfu Industrial is as follows: non-ferrous metals 94.76%, electricity 9.96%, coal 2.71%, and other businesses 0.47% [1] Group 2 - According to data from the top ten heavy positions of funds, one fund under Xingsheng Global Fund holds a significant position in Zhongfu Industrial [2] - Xingsheng Global Xingyu Mixed A Fund (014900) held 500,000 shares in Zhongfu Industrial in the third quarter, accounting for 0.87% of the fund's net value, ranking as the fifth-largest heavy position [2] - The fund manager, Zhai Xiuhua, has a tenure of 9 years and 242 days, with the fund's total asset scale at 217.233 billion CNY and a best fund return of 49.08% during the tenure [2]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The report primarily discusses the commodities market, with a specific focus on oil and soybean markets, amidst rising geopolitical risks [5][16]. Core Insights and Arguments Macroeconomic Context - **China's 14th Five-Year Plan**: The recent discussions highlighted advancements in technological innovation, adjustments in the real estate sector, and significant geopolitical changes. The new plan emphasizes the importance of technology, expanding domestic demand, and enhancing openness [3]. - **U.S. Economic Indicators**: The U.S. WEI index shows signs of recovery, suggesting a potential GDP growth rate of over 3% in Q3. However, employment levels remain low due to structural changes in hiring needs [4]. Oil Market Dynamics - **Sanctions on Russian Oil**: The U.S. and EU have intensified sanctions against Russian oil companies, significantly impacting oil supply dynamics. The U.S. has sanctioned 75% of Russian oil supplies, with a notable impact on Asian markets, particularly India [5]. - **Price Movements**: Following the sanctions, Brent crude oil prices surged approximately 7% to around $65 per barrel. The market is still cautious about fully pricing in the risks associated with Russian oil supply disruptions [9]. - **Supply Outlook**: The report anticipates a global oil supply surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day in Q4 2025, with Brent prices expected to remain in the range of $65-$70 per barrel unless significant supply shocks occur [10]. Soybean Market Insights - **Price Volatility**: The soybean market is experiencing increased price fluctuations due to uncertainties in U.S.-China trade policies. Recent data indicates strong domestic demand for U.S. soybeans, alleviating concerns over export demand [6][16]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The upcoming U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to influence soybean pricing significantly, with current expectations of tight supply in the first quarter of 2026 [16]. Commodity Price Movements - **Recent Price Changes**: Over the past two weeks, various commodities have shown significant price changes, with domestic thermal coal increasing by 9.3% and iron ore decreasing by 1.5% [7][20]. - **Black Metal Sector**: The black metal sector is facing mixed signals, with steel inventory levels shifting from accumulation to depletion, indicating potential demand recovery [11][12]. Geopolitical Risks - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The report emphasizes the rising geopolitical risks affecting commodity markets, particularly in energy and agricultural sectors, which could lead to increased volatility and price adjustments [5][9]. Other Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment remains cautious, with traders awaiting clearer signals from geopolitical developments and trade negotiations [9][18]. - **Long-term Trends**: The report suggests that while immediate price movements are influenced by geopolitical events, long-term trends will depend on structural changes in supply and demand dynamics across various commodities [12][15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and outlook of the commodities market, particularly focusing on oil and soybeans amidst geopolitical uncertainties.

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Copper prices are expected to maintain a long - term upward trend, with a current recommendation of waiting and a low - buying approach. Alumina prices are in a bottom - grinding phase, with short - term narrow - range rebounds and potential for continuous upward movement if substantial production cuts occur. Aluminum prices are expected to remain strong with a bullish outlook after corrections. Cast aluminum alloy prices will be strong and bullish on dips. Zinc prices will fluctuate within a range. Lead prices may decline with increasing social inventory. Nickel prices are expected to decline during the off - season. Stainless steel prices will face downward pressure. Tin prices will remain high and volatile. Industrial silicon prices are recommended to hold long positions and take profits at high points. Polysilicon prices should be bought after corrections await positive news. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to rebound in the short - term and consider shorting at high - pressure levels [3][13][22][30][37][41][46][53][61][65][71][78] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai copper 2512 closed at 86,480 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The Shanghai copper index increased its positions by 834 lots to 555,200 lots. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 15 yuan/ton to a premium of 55 yuan/ton, while in Guangdong it dropped to a discount of 40 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, and in North China it remained at a discount of 140 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: In October, China's CPI and PPI showed positive trends. The US Senate reached an agreement to end the government shutdown. As of November 10, copper inventories decreased by 0.74 tons to 195,900 tons. A Canadian company may restart a copper mine in Nevada in Q2 2026, supplying about 27,000 tons of copper annually [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term liquidity concerns are alleviated. The supply is tightening while demand is picking up [1][3] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and maintain a long - term bullish view. Consider ratio trading for potential rebounds and wait on options [4][5][6] Alumina - **Market Review**: The 2601 contract of alumina rose by 50 yuan to 2,829 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 8,099 lots to 547,700 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends [8] - **Related Information**: An aluminum plant in Xinjiang and an electrolytic aluminum enterprise in Yunnan made procurement transactions. Guinea's mining companies had relevant operations. National alumina production capacity and costs were reported [9][10][12] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply exceeds demand, and there are expectations of production cuts. Prices rebounded due to short - covering, but the upside may be limited without substantial production cuts [13] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term narrow - range rebounds, beware of selling pressure. Wait on arbitrage and options [14][15] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai aluminum 2512 contract rose by 80 yuan to 21,680 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 13,320 lots to 743,400 lots. Spot prices in different regions declined [17] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was positive, and the US government was expected to end the shutdown. Overseas and domestic aluminum production and consumption situations were reported [17][19][20] - **Trading Logic**: The market sentiment is eased. Overseas supply is tight, while domestic demand shows resilience [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Remain bullish after corrections. Consider long Shanghai aluminum and short LME aluminum for arbitrage and wait on options [23][24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The 2512 contract of cast aluminum alloy rose by 60 yuan to 21,105 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 165 lots. Spot prices remained stable in different regions [26] - **Related Information**: The US government was expected to end the shutdown. The cost and profit of the industry were reported, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29] - **Trading Logic**: Market sentiment is eased. Supply is tight and costs are high, but downstream sentiment is affected by high prices [30] - **Trading Strategy**: Bullish on dips. Wait on arbitrage and options [31] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai zinc 2512 contract fell 0.07% to 22,670 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 1,217 lots to 228,100 lots. Spot prices in Shanghai were affected by supply and demand, and trading was mainly among traders [33] - **Related Information**: Domestic zinc inventories slightly increased [34] - **Logic Analysis**: Mine supply is tight, and there are expectations of production cuts. The upside may be limited [35][37] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range. Hold the long SHFE and short LME zinc arbitrage. Wait on options [38] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai lead 2512 contract rose 0.49% to 17,505 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 26 lots to 120,300 lots. Spot prices increased, and the spread between primary and recycled lead decreased [40] - **Related Information**: Social inventories increased [41] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply may improve, while demand may weaken [41] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a range and expect a decline with increasing inventory. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [42] Nickel - **Important Information**: The Jakarta government is formulating regulations on official electric vehicles. The Indonesian government is cracking down on illegal mining. Global nickel smelting activities declined in September [44][46] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are slightly tightened, but overall it is loose. Prices are under pressure during the off - season [46] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options [47][48][49] Stainless Steel - **Important Information**: A stainless - steel factory in South Korea suspended operations due to an accident. A Chinese company's production capacity and market situation were reported [51][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak with limited demand growth points. Supply is abundant, and prices are under pressure [53] - **Trading Strategy**: Short on rebounds. Wait on arbitrage [54][55] Tin - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai tin 2512 closed at 286,560 yuan/ton, up 1.04%. The spot price in Shanghai rose by 2,250 yuan/ton to 286,000 yuan/ton [57] - **Related Information**: China's economic data was reported. Yunnan achieved mining goals, and a company's tin production decreased [58][60] - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment is positive for tin prices, but the supply is tight, and demand is slowly recovering [61] - **Trading Strategy**: Trade within a high - level range. Wait on options [62][63] Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: A quartz - to - silicon plant in Angola was completed. November's polysilicon production decreased, and power prices in Yunnan and Sichuan increased [65] - **Logic Analysis**: Demand is weakening, and supply may further decrease. Prices may range between 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [65] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions and take profits at high points. Do positive arbitrage on Si2512 and Si2601 contracts. Sell out - of - the - money put options [66][67][68] Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Sichuan issued a notice on new energy project electricity price bidding [70] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, with supply decreasing more. Spot prices lack upward momentum [71] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy after corrections await positive news. Do reverse arbitrage on far - month contracts [72][73] Lithium Carbonate - **Important Information**: A research team made a breakthrough in solid - state battery technology. The new - energy vehicle market was active [76] - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream production increased slightly in November, while production decreased. Prices may remain high in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - term [78] - **Trading Strategy**: Expect a short - term rebound and consider shorting at high - pressure levels. Wait on arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money put options [79][80][81]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Shandong Province's economic aggregate ranks third in China, with its general public budget revenue ranking among the top in the country. Affected by the land and real - estate market environment, the government - funded revenue has declined. The province has made continuous progress in the "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" and formed a cluster system of "Ten Strong Industries" [4]. - In 2024, the debt balance and debt ratio of local governments in Shandong increased, and the province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan". From the perspective of urban investment enterprises, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend from 2022 - 2024, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Although the "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources ratio of some cities exceeded 500%, considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [4][5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Shandong's Economic and Fiscal Strength 3.1.1 Regional Characteristics and Economic Development in Shandong - Shandong has developed transportation, obvious location and port advantages. In 2024, its economic growth rate was slightly higher than the national average, and its economic aggregate ranked third in China. The province has a large population base with a negative growth rate, and its urbanization rate is slightly lower than the national average [6][10][11]. - The province's economy has been growing steadily. In 2024, its GDP was 98565.8 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.7%. In the first half of 2025, its GDP was 50046 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. The per - capita GDP in 2024 was about 97,800 yuan, ranking 11th in China [11]. - Shandong's marine economy is prominent. In 2024, its marine economic output value was 18011.8 billion yuan, ranking second in China, accounting for 18.3% of GDP. The "New and Old Kinetic Energy Conversion" continued to advance, and the "Ten Strong Industries" cluster system took shape. The construction of the Transportation Power Shandong Demonstration Zone and ports will boost the development of key industries [15][16][17]. - Shandong has received central policy support. Since 2024, it has actively implemented a package of incremental policies, striving for multiple funds and launching multiple policy lists [19]. 3.1.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation in Shandong - In 2024, Shandong's general public budget revenue ranked fifth in China, with a growth of 3.3%. Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue decreased in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [22][23]. - Shandong's comprehensive financial resources continued to grow, ranking fifth in China. The overall government debt burden was at a medium level in China. In 2024, the government debt scale, debt ratio, and debt - to - GDP ratio all increased compared with the previous year [28][30]. - The province continued to promote the "Package Debt Resolution Plan", issued large - scale implicit debt replacement bonds in 2024 and 2025, and steadily advanced the "Withdrawal from Platform" work, aiming to "eliminate" the stock of implicit debt by the end of 2028 [31]. 3.2 Economic and Fiscal Strength of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong 3.2.1 Development Status of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - Shandong has 16 prefecture - level cities, forming a "One Group, Two Centers, Three Circles" regional development pattern. The provincial capital economic circle and the Jiaodong economic circle have good industrial foundations, while the southern Shandong economic circle is relatively weak [32]. - In terms of GDP scale, Qingdao, Jinan, and Yantai rank among the top. In 2024, the GDP growth rate of each city slightly declined, and in the first half of 2025, the GDP continued to grow with little change in the growth rate [35]. - The per - capita GDP of Dongying and Qingdao is relatively high, while that of Linyi and Heze is relatively low. Qingdao and Jinan have strong population siphon effects [36]. 3.2.2 Fiscal Strength and Debt Situation of Prefecture - level Cities in Shandong - In 2024, the general public budget revenue of each city in Shandong increased, but the scale differentiation was obvious. In the first half of 2025, the growth rate generally slowed down, and Yantai's general public budget revenue decreased [38][39]. - Affected by the real - estate market, the government - funded revenue of some cities continued to decline significantly in 2024 and the first half of 2025 [41][43]. - Cities with lower urbanization rates in Shandong have a higher proportion of superior subsidy income. The comprehensive financial resources of each city vary significantly, and more than 50% of the cities' comprehensive fiscal revenues have not exceeded 100 billion yuan [44]. - In 2024, the government debt balance and debt ratio of each city in Shandong increased. Qingdao and Weihai had relatively high government debt ratios. The province increased transfer payments, and each city also resolved debts by seeking financial resource support and revitalizing stock assets [47][49]. 3.3 Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises in Shandong 3.3.1 Overview of Urban Investment Enterprises - As of the end of September 2025, there were 265 urban investment enterprises with outstanding bonds in Shandong. Qingdao and Weifang had a relatively large number of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises. The main credit ratings of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were AA and AA +, and AAA - rated enterprises were mainly concentrated at the provincial level, in Jinan, and in Qingdao [52]. 3.3.2 Bond - issuing Situation of Urban Investment Enterprises - In 2024, the number and scale of bond issuances in Shandong decreased. Qingdao and Jinan had a large net bond financing scale. From January to September 2025, the net bond financing of urban investment enterprises in some cities turned negative, and Jining had a large - scale net bond repayment [54]. 3.3.3 Analysis of Debt - paying Ability of Urban Investment Enterprises - From 2022 - 2024, the overall debt scale of urban investment enterprises in Shandong showed an upward trend, but the growth rate slowed down in 2024. Bank loans and bond financing were the main financing methods, and the proportion of other financing channels decreased [55][58]. - As of the end of June 2025, most cities' bond - issuing urban investment enterprises' short - term debt - paying indicators improved, but those in Qingdao, Rizhao, and Liaocheng still faced great short - term debt - paying pressure. The scale of bonds due in 2026 in Qingdao and Jinan was relatively large [55][62]. - Jining's net cash flow from financing activities has been negative since 2023, and Rizhao's turned negative since 2024 [58][64]. 3.3.4 Support and Guarantee Ability of Fiscal Revenue of Prefecture - level Cities for the Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises - The ratio of "Debt of Bond - issuing Urban Investment Enterprises + Local Government Debt"/Comprehensive Financial Resources of prefecture - level cities in Shandong exceeded 200%. Considering the large economic development potential and multiple debt - resolution policies in cities such as Qingdao and Jinan, the risks of bond - issuing urban investment enterprises were generally controllable [68].

Group 1: Electrolytic Aluminum Sector - The overseas electricity supply gap is leading to strong production cut expectations, which may result in a re-evaluation of China's industrial advantages in the electrolytic aluminum sector [2][5] - The U.S. electricity net imports reached 20.94 terawatt-hours from January to September 2025, a year-on-year increase of 125%, indicating a growing electricity supply risk [2] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum industry is expected to maintain cost advantages in the medium term, regardless of whether it relies on thermal or hydropower [1][2] Group 2: Special Steel New Materials Sector - Domestic advancements in nuclear energy technology are leading to increased interest in the special steel sector, particularly materials that can withstand extreme conditions in nuclear applications [3] - The successful installation of the BEST superconducting magnet in Hefei is expected to be the first device to achieve nuclear fusion power generation [3] - Investment opportunities are emerging in special steel companies that supply key materials for nuclear energy devices [3][5] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Sector - The demand for energy storage is significantly increasing due to overseas electricity shortages, leading to a recovery in the lithium carbonate supply chain prices [4] - As of November 6, lithium hexafluorophosphate reached a two-year high of 119,800 yuan per ton, contributing to the rise in lithium carbonate prices to 80,200 yuan per ton on November 7 [4] - The entire lithium carbonate supply chain is expected to see both volume and price increases in the medium term [4][6] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - For the electrolytic aluminum sector, companies like Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) are recommended due to continuous cost reductions and potential volume-price increases in 2026 [5] - In the special steel new materials sector, companies such as Jiuli Special Materials (002318.SZ) and Fushun Special Steel (600399.SH) are highlighted for their involvement in key nuclear power equipment [5] - In the lithium carbonate sector, companies like Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) and Zhongkuang Resources (002738.SZ) are suggested for investment [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry in China [6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing overseas electricity shortages with Chinese solutions, particularly in the context of rising industrial electricity costs due to increasing energy prices in major countries [9][14]. - It highlights the potential for significant growth in the electrolytic aluminum sector driven by export demand, as overseas power supply issues lead to production cuts [14]. - The report also points out investment opportunities in the special steel sector, particularly related to advancements in nuclear fusion technology [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is expected to benefit from a surge in overseas energy storage demand, with prices across the supply chain showing signs of recovery [16]. Summary by Sections 1. Non-Ferrous Metals - The report suggests that electrolytic aluminum, special steel, and lithium carbonate are primarily driven by domestic demand, but it presents a contrasting view that focuses on overseas electricity shortages as a growth opportunity [9][13]. - The electrolytic aluminum sector is poised for a revaluation due to strong production cut expectations stemming from overseas electricity shortages [14]. - The special steel sector is highlighted for its potential growth linked to nuclear fusion advancements, with significant demand expected for materials that can withstand extreme conditions [15]. - The lithium carbonate sector is experiencing a price rebound, with recent contracts indicating a positive outlook for the entire supply chain [16]. 2. Steel Industry - The steel industry is facing short-term profitability pressures, with slight declines in iron and steel production noted [17][19]. - Inventory levels for both social and steel mill stocks are decreasing, indicating a tightening supply [24]. - The report notes a general decline in steel prices, with various product categories experiencing price drops [34]. - Cost pressures are evident, with mixed trends in raw material prices impacting profitability across different steel production processes [27][30]. 3. New Energy Metals - The report indicates a significant year-on-year increase in lithium carbonate production, reflecting a robust supply response to market demand [39]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with production and sales figures showing substantial growth [43]. - Price trends for lithium and nickel are mixed, with lithium prices experiencing a notable decline while cobalt prices have seen increases [48][50].