2026年以来，A股市场总体呈现较明显的结构性分化。一方面，科创类股票、有色金属类股票强势领跑，被市场戏称为"老登"的银行、白酒等 传统行业板块表现则明显滞后。 与此同时，个股的分化则更为明显，翻倍股与"腰斩"股均已陆续出现。 2026年以来指数和板块分化明显：科创、有色领跑 "老登"板块失落 2026年以来近一个月的时间里，尽管市场跌宕起伏，但A股市场总体呈现较大分化，这一分化首先体现在主要指数表现的差异上。 数据显示，A股市场主要指数中，中证500指数表现亮眼，2026年以来累计已上涨14.09%。据Wind数据，该指数成份股2026年以来不到一个月的时间合计 成交额超过11万亿元，超过2025年9月的月度数值。这意味着，该指数的成份股月度合计成交额将创出历史新高。 在中证500指数之外，科创50指数的表现也不遑多让，2026年以来累计涨幅已达12.16%，这是在此前一年该指数大涨的基础上。2025年，科创50指数已大 幅上涨35.92%。在指数大幅上行的同时，2026年以来科创板交投活跃度也随之进一步提升，不到一个月的时间里合计成交额已超过6万亿元，超过科创板 此前任何一个月份的月度成交额。 北证50指 ...

Market Performance - On January 29, 2026, the North Exchange 50 index decreased by 1.69%, closing at 1,536.00 points[1] - The overall trading volume on the North Exchange was 29.703 billion CNY, with a turnover rate of 4.79%[1] - The total market capitalization of the North Exchange was 937.031 billion CNY, with a circulating market value of 583.083 billion CNY[1] Sector Performance - The top-performing sectors included Oil & Petrochemicals (+30.0%), Media (+19.8%), and Food & Beverage (+5.1%) on the same day[1] - The sectors with the largest declines were Non-ferrous Metals (-3.3%), Electric Power Equipment (-2.5%), and Social Services (-1.9%)[1] Stock Performance - Among the 291 listed companies, 85 saw an increase, 3 remained flat, and 203 experienced a decline[1] - The leading gainers included Keli Co. (+29.99%), Liujin Technology (+19.82%), and Meibang Technology (+12.70%) while the largest decliners were Nongda Technology (-12.93%), Guangxin Technology (-9.91%), and Aweite (-7.91%)[1] Valuation Metrics - The overall valuation of the North Exchange was approximately 48.50 times earnings, which is higher than the ChiNext's 45.59 times but lower than the Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 79.67 times[1] - The highest average P/E ratio by sector was in Non-ferrous Metals at 140.1 times, followed by Oil & Petrochemicals at 106.2 times and Food & Beverage at 90.1 times[1] Risks - Potential risks include lower-than-expected policy support, insufficient technological innovation, intensified market competition, and market volatility[1][16]

证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2026 年 01 月 29 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 摘要。2026 年 1 月 29 日周四，A 股市场分化上行，个股跌多涨少，白酒板块大 涨；国债期货市场偏强震荡；商品指数延续强势，沪铜大涨近 7%。 一、市场行情分析 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号：S0120523070003 邮箱：gaojq＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 白酒板块大反弹 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 1）股票市场：分化上行，延续跌多涨少 分化上行，延续跌多涨少。今日 A 股市场呈现显著结构性分化，上证指数全天围 绕 4150 点窄幅波动，最终收报 4157.98 点，涨幅 0.16%；深市表现承压，深证成 指下跌 0.30%至 14300.08 点，创业板指下跌 0.57%至 3304.51 点；科创 50 指数 跌幅达 3.03%。全市场成交额 3.26 万亿，较前一交易日放量约 8.9%，连续 ...

Market Review - In the past five trading days (January 23 to January 29), major indices showed mixed performance; the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.86%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.73%. The CSI 300 increased by 0.64%, and the CSI 500 rose by 1.55% [4][24]. Federal Reserve Policy - On January 29, the Federal Reserve held its January meeting and maintained the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, aligning with market expectations. This decision reflects a belief that the labor market may be stabilizing, despite low job additions, and that current inflation remains slightly above the 2% target due to tariff impacts. Future monetary policy will be determined based on subsequent data and risk assessments, without a preset path for rate cuts. Market expectations indicate two potential rate cuts by the Fed within the year, possibly starting in June [26]. Market Strategy - The short-term market continues to experience fluctuations amid ongoing net outflows from ETFs. Strong sectors such as AI and non-ferrous metals are showing performance, while relatively low-positioned resource and consumer sectors are beginning to rotate. Despite the overall index being in a consolidation phase, active trading supports localized profit opportunities. Looking ahead, the expectation of a "slow bull" market suggests that the index may continue to consolidate, with a focus on capturing structural opportunities. Key areas to watch include: (1) Continued expansion of domestic and international AI capital and the acceleration of domestic substitution, which may catalyze investment opportunities in the TMT sector; (2) Investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector supported by the weakening international status of the US dollar and frequent geopolitical conflicts; (3) Rotation opportunities in resource and consumer sectors that have previously lagged [27].

转自：智通财经 注：智通财经VIP为内容资讯产品，并非投资建议。以下内容仅为资讯价值展示非对相关公 司的推荐建议，非未来走势预测。投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 市场热点一 油气 消息面上，NYMEX原油期货主力合约日内突破64美元大关，现涨1.8%。 《九点特供》：盘前必读的特供早报。 1月26日08:17《九点特供》 解读海外映射，指出国际油价涨近3%，在解读海外局势后，并梳理了涨价 的逻辑，提及国内焦点公司洲际油气，截至1月29日收盘，其4日收获3次涨停。 洲际油气(600759) < 01-29 15:43:38 沪 融 5.69 所属行业:石油石化 +4.80% > > 查看所属板块 > 油气设服 天然气 +0.52 +10.06% +1.74% 最相关 +0.97% 成交量 5.48 最 高 5.69 856万手 今 开 昨 收 5.17 最 低 5.12 成交额 46.4亿 换手率 20.65% 总市值 236亿 ▲ 213.13 市盈动 热股 财联社热股榜TOP13 > 分时 五日 日K 周K 月K 分钟▼ [0] MA5 前复权 5.69 5.69 1月26日08:17《九点特供》解读海外 指出国 ...

驱动这些板块上涨的逻辑，核心在于"预期修复"和"高低切换"。一方面，市场对于春节前的消费旺季抱 有期待，白酒板块的备货行情提前启动，叠加可能进一步落地的"以旧换新"等消费刺激政策，给了资金 做多的理由。另一方面，房地产板块在经历了长期深度调整后，筹码结构已经相对出清，部分政策边际 改善的传闻（如月度数据上报要求调整）便足以引发超跌反弹。 今天是2026年1月29日，市场走出了极为分化的行情，相信很多朋友手中的持仓也是冰火两重天。我们 来一起拆解一下盘面，看看资金究竟在流向何方。 先看整体概览。今日A股三大指数涨跌不一，上证指数顽强收红，微涨0.16%，报4157.98点；而深证成 指和创业板指分别下跌0.3%和0.57%。最引人注目的是科创50指数，全天大跌3.03%，收于1507.64点。 两市成交额显著放大，达到了3.23万亿元，环比增加了超过2600亿元。港股方面相对平稳，恒生指数微 涨0.2%，但恒生科技指数下跌1.41%。 这种"沪强深弱"、主板与科创严重分化的格局，清晰地揭示了当前市场的资金偏好和情绪主线。 从行业板块来看，今天的涨幅榜几乎被传统蓝筹和顺周期板块包揽。食品饮料板块一骑绝尘，暴涨 6 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.16% to close at 4157.98 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.3% to 14300.08 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.57% to 3304.51 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 3.03% to 1507.64 points. Overall, there were 1801 stocks that rose and 3562 that fell, with a total trading volume of 32.3 billion yuan, an increase of 2.646 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1][2]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, food and beverage, media, real estate, non-bank financials, and oil and petrochemicals led the gains, with increases of 6.57%, 3.53%, 2.65%, 2.28%, and 2.23% respectively. Conversely, the electronics, defense and military industry, electric equipment, and machinery sectors experienced declines, with drops of 3.56%, 1.79%, 1.78%, 1.76%, and 1.66% respectively [1]. Concept Sector Performance - The top-performing concept sectors today included liquor, beverage manufacturing, real estate selection, Xiaohongshu platform, oil and gas extraction, short drama games, brand leaders, Pinduoduo partners, virtual humans, insurance selection, Kimi, WEB3.0, rare earths, Chinese corpus, and bank selection. In contrast, sectors such as the SMIC industrial chain, copper-clad laminates, analog chips, and third-generation semiconductors saw a pullback [2].

截至1月29日14:10，石化ETF（159731）跌0.38%，持仓股中三棵树、浙江龙盛、荣盛石化等个股领 张。从资金净流入方面来看，石化ETF连续16个交易日获得资金净流入，累计"吸金"8.38亿元。石化 ETF最新份额达11.06亿份，最新规模11.66亿元，均创成立以来新高。 工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委等五部门近日联合印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》。 自2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领；到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻 工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建设一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石 化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传统高载能产业脱碳新路径。"十五五"碳排放双控下化工行业绿 色转型加速，利好行业能效领跑龙头。 方正证券认为，对化企而言，一方面未来部分高能耗或高碳排放子行业的供给侧增量存量均有政策约 束，另一方面，随着碳排放权交易市场的扩围，碳配额制度有望重塑部分行业成本曲线，加速落后产能 出清，长期利好行业能效领跑龙头。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，受基础化工和 ...

1、指数优势：产品跟踪中证石化产业指数，一键配置"三桶油"、万华化学等石油石化、基础化工产业 龙头 。 以上内容与数据，与有连云立场无关，不构成投资建议。据此操作，风险自担。 （4）周期右侧石化产业行情持续性更强：产业周期上行阶段，即当前化工品涨价上涨兑现期石化往往 具备超额优势 。 （5）享受油价反转贝塔：金油比达到历史极值，重视油价反转预期差。 2、产品优势 产品维度：化工行业ETF易方达是石化化工领域唯一管理+托管费率15+5bp/年的低费率ETF产品，长期 超额收益水平在可比产品中保持领先。 基于以上优势，化工行业ETF易方达（516570，场外联接A/C: 020104/020105）广受市场关注！ （1）估值位置相对更低：截至市盈率分位数65%，低于可比化工指数，中国化工品价格上行周期中， 指数估值扩张空间充足 （2）龙头属性鲜明：市值偏向大盘，龙头属性鲜明，石化化工业供给优化进程中"强者恒强"，大市值 风格的产业龙头有望率先受益。 （3）价值风格占优阶段具备超额收益：中证石化产业指数有望受益于市场高切低风格切换，石化产业 指数在市场风格偏向价值的阶段，往往能够显著跑赢可比化工指数。聚焦价值+基本 ...

招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 27,827 | 2.58 | 8.57 | | 恒生国企 | 9,512 | 2.89 | 6.72 | | 恒生科技 | 5,900 | 2.53 | 6.96 | | 上证综指 | 4,151 | 0.27 | 4.60 | | 深证综指 | 2,718 | -0.01 | 7.39 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,324 | -0.57 | 3.76 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,016 | 0.02 | 1.98 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,978 | -0.01 | 1.94 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 23,857 | 0.17 | 2.65 | | 德国 DAX | 24,823 | -0.29 | 1.36 | | 法国 CAC | 8,067 | -1.06 | -1.02 | | 英国富时 100 | 10,154 | -0.52 | 2.25 ...