投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 国内商品期市收盘涨跌参半，铂、钯跌停 ——中信期货晨报20251230 中信期货研究所 王含章 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | 金融市场涨跌幅 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅 周度涨跌幅 月度涨跌幅 季度涨跌幅 今年涨跌幅 | | | | | 沪深300期货 | 4610.2 | -0.61% | -0.619 | 3.08% | -0.17% | 17.58% | | | 上证50期货 | 3038 | -0.44% | -0.44% | 2.67% | 1.64% | 13.44% | | 股指 | 中证500期货 | 7336.6 | -0.70% | -0.70% | 7 883 | 0.6 ...

当地时间12月29日，美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.51%，标普500指数跌0.35%，纳指跌0.5%。万得美国科技七巨头指数跌0.60%，特斯拉跌超3%，英 伟达跌超1%。 消息面上，12月29日，美国芝商所集团宣布全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金，并在当地时间周一收盘后生效，其中，黄金期 货保证金上调10%，白银期货上调约13.6%，铂金上调约23%。此举引发国际金属期货价格出现多轮下跌。 | 贵金属 こ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX電金 | | 4331.668 | 72.200 | 4349.6 | | -200.742 -4.43% | -7.129 -8.99% | -203.1 -4.46% | | COMEX自银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE白银 | | 71.600 | 975.80 | 17237 | | -5.596 -7.25% | -40.66 -4.00% -1650 -8.74% | | | 能源化工 它 | | | | NYMEX WTI原 | ICE布油 | ICE轻质低硫原 | | ...

摘要 人民币升值投资机会解读 20251229 人民币升值利好上游原材料行业（公用事业、有色金属、钢铁、能源化 工）和消费品行业（航空公司、免税业务），降低进口商品成本，提升 相关企业盈利能力。 人民币升值减轻了航空公司和房地产企业以美元计价的债务偿还压力， 尤其是航空公司通过汇兑收益直接增厚利润，房地产企业境外美元债偿 债压力降低。 人民币升值将提升人民币核心资产的估值，金融领域的银行和保险业， 以及港股市场中的恒生科技指数和恒生中国企业指数，可能因外资流入 而表现突出。 燃气板块受益于人民币升值，因燃气价格与美元计价的国际油价挂钩， 降低采购成本；而高股息火电板块受汇率影响较小，表现相对弱势。 航空业直接受益于飞机采购和租赁的汇兑收益，以及美联储降息带来的 融资成本降低；间接受益于美元计价运营成本的降低和出境游需求的刺 激。 人民币升值扩大了国内降息空间，有助于房地产市场企稳，并吸引外资 投资以人民币计价的大宗不动产，如商业办公和物流地产项目。 港股市场因人民币升值对外资吸引力增加而受益，尤其是科技板块，但 股价根本驱动因素仍是每股收益（EPS），流动性影响短期股价。 Q&A 人民币升值对哪些行业有显著影 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 4% last week, with precious metals leading the way with a 9.69% increase. The short - term commodity market may run stably due to the loose dollar liquidity [2]. - The Fed's loose outlook and geopolitical risks support the strength of precious metals. The short - term market fluctuates greatly as various varieties hit new highs [2]. - The non - ferrous sector may oscillate strongly in the short term due to the weak dollar and the support from the expected contraction of mine supply [3]. - The black sector may oscillate as the demand and supply situation is complex, with factors such as changes in steel mill production and raw material supply [3]. - Oil prices continue to be under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand background, despite the geopolitical tension in Venezuela [3]. - The polyester chemical varieties may be affected by supply and demand changes, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - The short - term trend of agricultural products and oils and fats is expected to be oscillatory, influenced by factors such as weather and export expectations [4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The overall commodity market rose 4% last week, with precious metals up 9.69%, non - ferrous metals up 4.97%, energy and chemicals up 2.98%, agricultural products up 2.53%, and black metals up 0.08%. Silver, PTA, and nickel were the top gainers, while tin, coke, and rebar were the top losers [2][6]. - The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market increased, with only the black and coal - chemical related varieties showing a decline in volatility. The overall market scale increased, but only the precious metal and non - ferrous sectors had net inflows, with most funds concentrated in silver [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: Supported by the Fed's loose policy and geopolitical risks, the shortage of spot makes silver, platinum, and palladium more favored by funds. The gold - silver ratio has fallen below the average. Exchange restrictions and risk warnings have led to large short - term market fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The weak dollar and better - than - expected GDP growth in the US provide a neutral - warm macro environment. Although the inventory is increasing and the spot premium is weakening, the expected contraction of mine supply supports the price, and the sector may oscillate strongly in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The demand for rebar decreased, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The slowdown of blast furnace production cuts and the stable molten iron output need attention to the sustainability of environmental protection restrictions. The supply of raw materials is relatively sufficient, and the sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The geopolitical tension in Venezuela increases the risk premium of crude oil, but the impact on global supply is limited. The US shale oil production remains high, and oil prices are under pressure due to the long - term loose supply - demand situation [3]. - **Chemical Industry**: Polyester varieties may face supply pressure from device restarts, but the strong expectation remains, and attention should be paid to the downstream polyester load [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: The improving weather in South America and the expected transition of La Nina to ENSO neutral increase the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America. The fundamentals of palm oil are less negative, and the short - term trend of oils and fats may be oscillatory [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally had positive returns last week, with the total scale of gold ETFs increasing by 0.77% and the total trading volume increasing by 29.04%. The total scale of commodity ETFs increased by 0.86% and the trading volume increased by 23.22% [36]. - Among them, the returns of different gold ETFs ranged from 3.21% to 3.60%, and the return of the silver fund was 17.43%, while the returns of energy - chemical, bean - meal, and non - ferrous metal ETFs were 4.25%, 1.69%, and 4.34% respectively [36][38].

宏观：双主线引爆市场：有色金属狂欢与人民币升值 【市场资讯】1）2026 年全国两会召开时间来了：政协 3 月 4 日，人大 3 月 5 日。2）财政 部：2026 年继续实施更加积极的财政政策，扩大财政支出盘子，继续支持消费品以旧换新。 3）中国 11 月规模以上工业企业利润同比下降 13.1%，前 11 个月同比微增，高技术制造业 利润增速加快。工业生产和利润率的下滑是利润增速收窄的主因。4）香港财政司司长陈茂 波：三方面助力人民币国际化，吸引全球优质公司来港上市，开拓国际黄金交易新机遇。5） 克里姆林宫：俄美总统均认为以公投为借口暂时停火只会延长俄乌冲突。特朗普称俄乌均 有意结束冲突，美乌将达成安全协议。6）芝商所 12 月 26 日发布重大保证金调整通知称， 将于 12 月 29 日收盘后，全面上调黄金、白银、锂等金属期货品种的履约保证金。 金融期货早评 【核心逻辑】上周市场呈现有色金属强势上涨与人民币汇率加速升值的双主线特征。有色 金属板块中，白银表现尤为突出。本轮白银上涨是供需格局、资金动向及比价效应共同作 用的结果，但短期涨幅过高叠加明年 1 月大宗商品指数调仓带来的减持压力，需警惕回调 风险， ...

冬日里的毛乌素沙漠星空低垂，仿佛伸手可触寒冽的银河。位于内蒙古自治区鄂尔多斯市乌审旗的中煤 鄂尔多斯能源化工有限公司(以下简称中煤鄂能化公司)化工生产一派繁忙，项目建设热火朝天。 该公司干部职工坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻党的二十大和二十届历次 全会精神，推进实施党建品牌"鄂能向新·绿智先锋"落地见效，推动党建与生产经营中心工作深度融 合，构建同频共振、同向发力新格局，以高质量党建推动企业高质量发展。 "品牌引领"筑牢根基守初心 "鄂能向新·绿智先锋"，是中煤鄂能化公司党委创新推出的党建品牌，于2025年7月正式发布。 "鄂能向新"即"鄂能"固本、"向新"立志。前者彰显企业地域属性与能源行业特质，赓续中国中煤红色血 脉，践行"能源报国"使命，将党的领导融入公司治理各环节，筑牢国有企业"根"与"魂"。后者意指公司 贯彻新发展理念，发展新质生产力，培育新能源、新材料等战略性新兴产业，构建"煤—电—化—新"多 元耦合发展新格局，推动全产业链向高端化、绿色化、智能化转型升级。 "绿智先锋"即"绿色"引领、"智慧"展翼、"先锋"树帜。喻意公司践行"双碳"战略，加速绿氢氨醇绿色项 目落地，探索绿 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views of the Report The report offers daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, presenting the latest market trends and price movements of each product, along with corresponding trading strategies. It also provides detailed fundamental data and macro - industry news for each commodity to assist investors in making decisions [1][2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately declining, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot markets showed varying degrees of increase, and ETF holdings slightly increased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's continued implementation of an active fiscal policy [6][8]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment phase, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international silver prices increased significantly, and trading volume and positions changed. ETF holdings slightly decreased [6]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Platinum has strong bullish sentiment, and palladium is in an upward - trending oscillation, both with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of platinum and palladium futures and spot markets showed significant increases, and trading volume and positions changed [23][25]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The strength of overseas spot markets supports price increases, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international copper futures prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and production data from Peru and Kazakhstan [9][11]. - **Zinc**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international zinc prices had slight changes, and inventory increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data and fiscal policy [12][14]. - **Lead**: Weak demand restricts price increases, with a trend intensity of 0. Domestic and international lead prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes China's fiscal policy and industrial profit data [15][16]. - **Tin**: Supply is disrupted again, with a trend intensity of 1. Domestic and international tin prices increased, and inventory decreased. Macro - industry news includes the upcoming 2026 National Two Sessions and China's fiscal policy [18][20]. - **Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum follows the upward trend of copper; alumina has a "self - competing" policy orientation; cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed [21][22]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: For nickel, there is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities; for stainless steel, fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of nickel and stainless - steel futures and spot markets had certain changes, and there were many industry news items related to Indonesia [27][31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The difference between reality and expectations increases the divergence between bulls and bears, with high - level oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The prices of carbonate lithium futures and spot markets increased, and inventory and other data changed. Macro - industry news includes the price increase of battery - grade carbonate lithium and the production line maintenance plan of Anda Technology [32][34]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon should pay attention to the boost from sentiment on the market; polysilicon oscillates within a range with large fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 1 for industrial silicon and 0 for polysilicon. The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures and spot markets had certain changes, and inventory and other data also changed. Macro - industry news includes the price competition order compliance guidance in the photovoltaic industry [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: It fluctuates repeatedly at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of iron - ore futures increased slightly, and spot prices also increased. Macro - industry news includes China's industrial profit data [39][40]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased slightly, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes production, inventory, and demand data in the steel industry [41][44]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Both are subject to market information disturbances and have wide - range oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon futures decreased, and spot prices had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the price changes of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese ferrosilicon [46][48]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Coke has an expectation of a fourth - round price reduction and fluctuates repeatedly; coking coal is affected by year - end production cuts and fluctuates repeatedly, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of coke and coking - coal futures decreased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Macro - industry news includes the CCI metallurgical coal index and production suspension in Yunnan [50][54]. - **Log**: It oscillates at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of log futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. Macro - industry news includes the LPR quotation [55][58]. - **Para - Xylene, PTA, and MEG**: Para - xylene and PTA are in high - level oscillation markets; MEG has limited upward space and still faces medium - term pressure, all with a trend intensity of 1. The prices of para - xylene, PTA, and MEG futures increased, and spot prices also had certain changes. Market dynamics include the restart of production devices [59][66]. - **Rubber**: It shows a slightly upward - trending oscillation, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of rubber increased, and the market had a positive sentiment. The import volume of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the inventory accumulation rate may slow down [67][70]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price center moves upward, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of synthetic rubber increased, and inventory increased slightly. The short - term price center of butadiene - styrene rubber moves upward, but the near - term fundamentals limit the upward elasticity [71][73]. - **Asphalt**: The spot price is temporarily stable, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of asphalt futures had slight changes, and inventory and production data also changed. Market information includes production volume and inventory data [74][85]. - **LLDPE**: The basis is weak, and spot transactions are concentrated in the middle stream, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of LLDPE futures increased, and the basis weakened. The upstream price increased, and inventory shifted to the middle stream [86][88]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market stabilizes and oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PP futures decreased slightly, and the basis was under pressure. The downstream demand was weak, and the PDH profit was at a low level [89][91]. - **Caustic Soda**: The short - term rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of caustic - soda futures and spot prices had certain changes. The market followed the rebound of alumina, but the supply pressure was high [92][94]. - **Pulp**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pulp futures had slight changes, and spot prices were relatively stable. The market was affected by multiple factors, and there was no clear one - sided drive [96][101]. - **Methanol**: It oscillates, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of methanol futures decreased slightly, and inventory increased. The market oscillated in a weak fundamental and strong macro environment [102][106]. - **Urea**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of urea futures decreased slightly, and inventory decreased. The market drive was neutral, and there was support at the bottom [107][110]. - **Styrene**: It oscillates in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of styrene futures increased, and the processing fee was expected to be at a medium - high level. The supply and demand structure supported the price, but there were also risks [111][114]. Agricultural Products - **LPG and Propylene**: LPG has a short - term tight supply, and attention should be paid to the realization of downward drivers; propylene's spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling rebound, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of LPG and propylene futures had certain changes, and industry news includes CP paper - cargo prices and device maintenance plans [115][121]. - **PVC**: The short - term rebound height is limited, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of PVC futures and spot prices were relatively stable, and the market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern [123][126]. - **Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil mainly shows a night - session adjustment trend and may remain strong in the short term; low - sulfur fuel oil oscillates in a narrow range, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the external market is temporarily stable, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel - oil futures had certain changes, and spot prices also changed [128]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chips**: Both are in high - level oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of short - fiber and bottle - chip futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market trading atmosphere was good [130][131]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of offset - printing - paper futures increased slightly, and spot prices were stable. The market trading was light, and the price was stable [133][136]. - **Pure Benzene**: It oscillates mainly in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of pure - benzene futures increased, and inventory increased. The market is expected to rebound after the first - quarter pressure [138][139]. - **Palm Oil and Soybean Oil**: Palm oil rebounds in the short - term rhythm with limited height; soybean oil has little driving force from US soybeans, and range operation is recommended, both with a trend intensity of 0. The prices of palm oil and soybean - oil futures increased slightly, and industry news includes production and export data of palm oil and soybean - growing conditions [141][146]. - **Soybean Meal and Soybeans**: Overnight US soybeans closed down, and Dalian soybean meal may adjust; soybeans oscillate, both with a trend intensity of 0. The price of soybean - meal futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The US soybean market was affected by multiple factors [147][149]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of corn futures increased, and spot prices also increased. Market information includes corn prices in different regions [150][153]. - **Sugar**: The market atmosphere is strong, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of sugar futures increased, and industry news includes production and import data at home and abroad [154][157]. - **Cotton**: The area expectation is undetermined, and the futures price回调, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of cotton futures had certain changes, and spot prices increased. The spot trading of cotton was light, and the demand of the cotton - textile industry was weak [159][164]. - **Eggs**: It oscillates and adjusts, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of egg futures increased, and spot prices also increased. The market was relatively stable [166]. - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and it is strong in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1. The price of hog futures and spot prices increased, and industry news includes warehouse - receipt registration and anti - dumping determination [168][172]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of peanut futures had slight changes, and spot prices were stable. The market supply and demand were relatively balanced [174][176].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the given text. 2. Core Views of the Report - The geopolitical situation, especially the Russia - Ukraine conflict, continues to impact various markets, causing uncertainties and fluctuations in financial and commodity markets [1][11][18]. - Market sentiment and trading volumes are affected by holidays such as Christmas and New Year, leading to relatively light trading and narrow - range fluctuations in some markets [1][2]. - Different industries show different trends. For example, some commodities are expected to be affected by supply - demand changes, policy adjustments, and cost factors, resulting in price fluctuations and investment opportunities [25][36][45]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Key issue in the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan" regarding territory remains unresolved. After Christmas, overseas market trading is light. On Friday, gold price rose 1%, and silver price soared 10% due to a short - squeeze. The short - squeeze may be nearing its end. With the New Year's holiday approaching and the exchange increasing margin requirements, short - term market volatility is expected to intensify. It is recommended to hold a light position during the holiday [1][11]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Russia - Ukraine conflict is likely to continue as the territorial issue remains unresolved, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile [15][16][17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Ukraine attacked a Russian refinery, increasing geopolitical risks. Although the market is trading lightly, the year - end seasonal performance of US stocks is strong, and the market risk appetite remains high. US stocks are expected to oscillate with an upward bias [18][19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 36.8 billion yuan. The problem of fragile institutional trading behavior is being alleviated, and long - term bonds are in the process of bottom - building. It is not recommended to chase short - term varieties. Long - term varieties are suitable for allocation when interest rates rise, and trading positions can buy on dips and exit quickly [20][21]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The A - share market has shown a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving an 8 - day consecutive increase. The market sentiment is positive, and it is recommended to allocate evenly in long positions of each stock index [23][24]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - In the week of December 20 - 26, 2025, the actual soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills decreased. In December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and exports increased. Although palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in December, the supply pressure is gradually easing. It is recommended to wait for further signals of supply pressure release before going long on palm oil. For international and domestic soybean oil, there are potential factors for price increases, but the impact may be limited due to sufficient inventory [25][26]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The estimated soybean crushing volume in domestic oil mills in January 2026 is expected to increase year - on - year. The domestic market is mainly affected by customs policies and national reserves. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to these two factors, which will mainly affect the unilateral trend of the March contract and the 3 - 5 spread [27][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Brazil's sugar production in the 26/27 season is expected to decrease by 5%. Thailand's sugar production progress is slow, and the international sugar market's supply - demand may tighten in the first quarter. However, the overall supply surplus expectation limits the upward driving force. Domestically, new sugar production is accelerating, and the upward space of the market is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the overseas market's driving effect and the terminal's stocking demand [31][33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In November 2025, Japan's clothing imports entered the off - season. As of December 11, the weekly signing data of US upland cotton was strong, but the export signing progress for the 25/26 season still lags. Zhengzhou cotton has increased in position and broken through previous highs, mainly due to speculation on the expected reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and the rise of chemical fiber futures prices. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream transmission situation and the risk of a decline due to capital withdrawal [34][36][38]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Before the New Year's Day holiday, steel prices are expected to continue to oscillate. The de - stocking speed of the five major steel products has not changed significantly, and the finished products have not yet entered the inventory - accumulation stage. It is necessary to pay attention to the export policy changes at the beginning of the year. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [41][42]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Macro and capital factors continue to drive copper prices up, and the short - term upward momentum is not weak. The fundamental situation deviates from the capital situation. Copper prices are expected to remain strong in the short term, and a long - term bullish strategy is recommended for the medium - term [45]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The spot price of polysilicon has increased, and the inventory is rising. In the off - season of demand from January to February, polysilicon may be "priced but not traded", but the peak - season expectation cannot be falsified. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips and hold positions carefully [47][48]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The production of industrial silicon in some regions has changed slightly, and the inventory is increasing. The current production reduction scale is not enough to reverse the inventory - accumulation pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to sell short on rebounds [50]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The spot price difference of lead is in a discount state. The supply of recycled lead may be tightened due to environmental protection. The terminal demand is differentiated, and the inventory is declining. It is recommended to adopt an oscillating trading strategy [53]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The raw material inventory of smelters has increased, and the demand has recovered slightly. The domestic social inventory has decreased, and there is a possibility of inventory accumulation in January. Zinc prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and easy to rise but difficult to fall in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips [56][57]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - A company has terminated a nickel project. The Indonesian government plans to adjust the nickel production quota and the tax - calculation formula, which may increase the smelting cost. The nickel market is currently in surplus, and it is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits and pay attention to the implementation of Indonesian policies [59][61]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has risen sharply, and the inventory is decreasing. The supply may decline slightly in January, and the demand side has many production - reduction and maintenance news. It is recommended that the previous long - positions track and stop profits, not chase the high, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long on dips in the medium - term [64][65]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The EU carbon price has been oscillating. The expected reduction of quota supply in 2026 is expected to support the price in the long - term, but short - term profit - taking by some investors may suppress the upward momentum. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [66][67]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia has extended the export ban on gasoline and diesel to February 2026. Geopolitical conflicts and supply - surplus expectations are disturbing the market. Oil prices are expected to oscillate and find the bottom in the process of verifying the surplus [68][69][70]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export prices of polyester bottle chips have risen, and the market trading atmosphere is good. With the commissioning of new devices and the restart of previously overhauled devices, the processing cost pressure may increase. The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the rise of polyester raw materials [71][73].

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——对话马斯克脑机接口"一号受试者"：大脑植入芯片23个月，我正重新夺回 人生的独立 （记者 曾健辉） 截至发稿，东华能源市值为126亿元。 每经AI快讯，东华能源（SZ 002221，收盘价：8.02元）12月26日晚间发布公告称，东华能源股份有限 公司（以下简称"公司"）子公司东华能源（宁波）新材料有限公司（以下简称"宁波新材料"）、东华能 源（茂名）有限公司（以下简称"东华茂名"）鉴于持有贵金属、产生废催化剂、换剂周期性等现状，拟 与徐州浩通新材料科技集团股份有限公司（以下简称"浩通科技"）签署《含贵金属废催化剂综合利用框 架合同》，针对含贵金属废催化剂（以下简称"废催化剂"）的销售等相关事宜达成合作。 2025年1至6月份，东华能源的营业收入构成为：生产和销售占比99.35%，其他业务占比0.55%，仓储占 比0.09%。 ...

每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——对话马斯克脑机接口"一号受试者"：大脑植入芯片23个月，我正重新夺回 人生的独立 （记者 曾健辉） 每经AI快讯，华谊集团（SH 600623，收盘价：7.47元）12月26日晚间发布公告称，公司第十一届第十 一次董事会会议于2025年12月25日以通讯表决方式召开。会议审议了《关于修订公司制度的议案》等文 件。 2025年1至6月份，华谊集团的营业收入构成为：精细化工占比37.51%，轮胎行业占比23.66%，能源化 工占比16.46%，化工服务占比12.28%，其他行业占比6.55%。 截至发稿，华谊集团市值为159亿元。 ...