Core Viewpoint - The company, Inner Mongolia Junzheng Energy Chemical Group Co., Ltd., is set to hold a half-year performance briefing on September 19, 2025, to discuss its operational results and financial status for the first half of 2025, addressing common investor concerns [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Briefing Details - The performance briefing will take place on September 19, 2025, from 15:00 to 17:00 [4]. - The event will be held at the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center and will utilize video recording and online interaction [4][3]. - Investors can submit questions from September 12 to September 18, 2025, through the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center website or via the company's email [5][2]. Group 2: Company Representatives - Key personnel attending the briefing include Chairman and General Manager Qiao Zhenyu, Independent Director Wang Tixing, Chief Financial Officer Fan Yu, and Board Secretary Wu Wanzhen [4]. Group 3: Investor Participation - Investors can participate in the performance briefing online on the specified date and time, with the company prepared to answer questions during the session [4][6]. - After the briefing, investors can access the main content and details of the event on the Shanghai Stock Exchange Roadshow Center website [6].

Group 1 - The government is focused on addressing low price levels, with the 2024 government work report emphasizing the need to improve supply-demand relationships to maintain prices within a reasonable range [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting highlighted the intention to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, indicating a market expectation for price recovery through "anti-involution" measures [1][2] - The current Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing prolonged low levels, primarily due to the drag from the energy, chemical, and real estate sectors, with "anti-involution" efforts having limited impact on PPI recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The low PPI is fundamentally a result of insufficient demand, with some industries experiencing profit declines despite sales growth due to aggressive price competition [4] - To achieve a reasonable recovery in PPI, both supply and demand sides need to work in tandem, with recent policies aimed at phasing out inefficient production capacity while balancing the need for economic growth [5][6] - The effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies is limited by various constraints, including trade friction and the sluggish real estate market, which affects overall investment and demand for industrial products [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The 14th China International Patent Technology and Products Trade Fair will be held in mid-October in Dalian, Liaoning Province, focusing on "Patent Transformation and Application Empowering Innovative Development" [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The trade fair is the highest standard and most professional intellectual property exhibition in China, attracting participation from over 30 countries and regions, with more than 10,000 exhibiting units and over 1 million attendees since its inception in 2002 [2]. - The event will feature an opening ceremony, exhibitions, and a series of activities, including the awarding of the 25th China Patent Gold Award and Design Gold Award [2]. Group 2: Exhibition Details - The exhibition area will cover 20,000 square meters, divided into eight sections, including the China Patent Award area, thematic exhibition area, key industry area, patent technology area, intellectual property operation ecosystem area, local area, geographical indication area, and design and consumer goods area [2][3]. - Over 300 exhibiting units are already confirmed for the six specialized exhibition areas, with the number expected to rise as recruitment continues [3]. Group 3: Activities and Objectives - The fair will organize over 30 activities focused on patent transformation and application, including policy presentations, discussions, roadshows, experience sharing, competitions, and trade negotiations [2][3]. - The event aims to link industries and drive innovation cooperation, creating a platform for collaboration between enterprises and research institutions, particularly in the fields of energy and chemicals, high-end manufacturing, modern marine, and life health [3][5]. - It will also establish a new ecosystem for transaction matching, addressing technology challenges and patent needs from local enterprises [5].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market saw significant gains on September 5, 2025, with polysilicon prices rising by 8.99% and hitting the daily limit, while coking coal increased by over 6% [1][2] - Other commodities such as glass and coking coal also experienced gains of over 4%, while some commodities like eggs and low-sulfur fuel oil saw declines of over 1% [1][2] - The increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to a recent government action plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, which includes solar energy and lithium battery sectors [1][3] Group 2 - The polysilicon market is currently facing production limits and concentrated inventory distribution, leading to attempts by polysilicon manufacturers to raise prices, with the highest quotes reaching 55 yuan per kilogram [3] - However, due to limitations on the profitability of terminal power stations, the acceptance of price increases in the component sector has peaked, resulting in a market price range of 50-52 yuan per kilogram [3] - The market is expected to remain in a tug-of-war between policy support and fundamental constraints until specific policy measures are introduced, with attention on the results of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's energy-saving inspections [3]

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The U.S. ADP employment data for August fell short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with a potential reduction of 50 basis points by year-end [1][4] - The August ADP employment number increased by only 54,000, significantly lower than the expected 65,000 and revised previous value of 106,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market [4] - The market anticipates that employment data will play a more critical role than inflation data in determining the Fed's future rate cuts [4] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the ADP employment report, U.S. stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.04% while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose by 0.04% and 0.08% respectively [2] - U.S. Treasury yields mostly declined, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping to 4.188%, reaching a four-month low [4] Group 3: Commodity Prices - International gold prices experienced a slight decline, with COMEX gold futures down 0.90% but remaining above $3,600 per ounce, while London gold spot prices fell by 0.5% to $3,541.518 per ounce [8][9] - Oil prices continued to decrease, with both NYMEX and ICE Brent crude oil futures dropping over 1% [8][10] Group 4: Innovations in Gold Market - The World Gold Council plans to launch "digital gold" to create a new trading, settlement, and collateralization method for gold, allowing for digital transactions within the gold ecosystem [11][12] - This initiative aims to broaden and simplify the application scenarios for gold, enabling banks and investors to trade partial ownership of physical gold through independent accounts, with pilot projects expected to start in London in Q1 next year [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various financial derivatives and commodity futures, including market conditions, news, and operation suggestions for each category [1]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, in the stock index futures market, major indices declined, while in the precious metals market, prices continued to rise due to weak US employment data and increased expectations of interest rate cuts [2][7]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: Major indices opened higher and then declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.16%, and most sectors adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined, and the basis of the main contracts decreased. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improved as the stock market fell. Treasury bond futures rose across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds generally declined. It is recommended to use interval operations and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of the TL contract [5][6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to rise. Weak US employment data strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the decline in US Treasury yields increased the demand for precious metals. Gold reached a record high of $3559.02 per ounce, and silver closed at $41.19 per ounce. It is expected that gold may rise above $3600, and silver may quickly rise above $42, but caution is needed [7][8][9]. Container Shipping on European Routes - The spot price of container shipping continued to decline, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate. The 12 - 10 month - spread arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11]. Commodity Futures Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The center of copper price has risen due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations. However, the upside space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate. The main contract is recommended to operate in the range of 79000 - 81000 yuan/ton [12][13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market presents a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand". The price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to consider short - selling at high prices in the medium term. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton [17][18]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 20400 - 21000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan/ton and the actual start of peak - season demand [19][20][21]. - **Zinc**: The refined zinc output is higher than expected, and the domestic inventory continues to accumulate. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 21500 - 23000 yuan/ton [23][24][26]. - **Tin**: The supply remains tight, and the price fluctuates at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 265000 - 285000 yuan/ton [26][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to adjust in the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - expectations and import/export conditions [29][30][31]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12600 - 13400 yuan/ton. It is necessary to pay attention to raw material dynamics and the realization of peak - season demand [32][33][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a tight - balance state. The price is expected to fluctuate widely after the price center moves down, and it is recommended to wait and see. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 70000 - 75000 yuan/ton [36][37][38]. Ferrous Metals - **Steel**: The apparent demand for rebar declined, and the steel price maintained a weak downward trend. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options and consider going long on the ratio of steel to iron ore [39][40]. - **Iron Ore**: The global shipment volume increased, and the 45 - port arrival volume rose. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 750 - 810 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [41][42][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The price fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - **Coke**: The seventh round of price increase by mainstream coking plants was implemented, but the eighth round was blocked. It is recommended to hold short positions and go long on iron ore and short on coke [47][48][49]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: Sino - US trade has not made substantial progress, and the domestic bullish expectation remains unchanged. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and then go long on the dips [50][52]. - **Hogs**: The supply - demand contradiction in the market is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to the support levels of 13500 for the 11 - contract and 13800 for the 01 - contract [53][54]. - **Corn**: The short - term market will fluctuate and adjust, and the medium - term trend is weak. It is recommended to go short on the rallies [55][56].

商品期货早班车 2025年09月04日 星期四 招商期货 黄金市场 招商评论 贵 金 市场表现：贵金属维持强势，伦敦金价逼近 3600 美元。 属 基本面：美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降息，并在未来数月内进行多次下调，但他对降息的具 体节奏持开放态度，认为这将取决于未来的经济数据；美国职位空缺人数 718.1 万低于预期；美联储博斯蒂 克变送 hi 疲软的就业市场意味着政策放松是合适的。国内黄金 ETF 资金流入，COMEX 黄金库存 1211 吨， 维持不变；上期所黄金库存 40 吨，维持不变；伦敦 7 月黄金库存 8774 吨；上期所白银库存 1226 吨，增加 11 吨，金交所白银库存上周库存 1283 吨，增加 1.7 吨，COMEX 白银库存 16049 吨，减少 70 吨；伦敦 7 月 白银库存增加408吨至24196吨；印度7月白银进口约340吨左右。全球最大白银etf--iShares持有量为15366 吨，增加 56 吨。 交易策略：美联储独立性受质疑，去美元化逻辑未变，美联储降息概率大增，西方国家长端债券遭到抛售， 加大避险需求，建议黄金做多；白银再次跟随黄金大涨，随着进入美国关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The economy shows mixed trends with some indicators improving and others weakening. Gold prices reach new highs, while oil prices decline due to potential supply increases. The bond market has complex dynamics, and the stock market is segmented. [1][4][9] - The paper industry's prices are rising due to raw material cost increases, and the coal - coking - steel - mining market is expected to have a positive trend in September. [2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro Data - GDP in Q2 2025 had a year - on - year growth of 5.2%, slightly lower than the previous quarter's 5.4% but higher than the same period last year's 4.7%. [1] - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up from 49.3% in the previous month and 49.1% last year. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, up from 50.1% in the previous month and the same as last year. [1] - In July 2025, social financing scale increment was 11320 billion yuan, down from 42251 billion yuan in the previous month but higher than 7707 billion yuan last year. [1] - In July 2025, M0, M1, and M2 year - on - year growth rates were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. M1 and M2 growth accelerated compared to the previous month and last year, while M0 growth slowed slightly. [1] - In July 2025, CPI year - on - year was 0.0%, down from 0.1% in the previous month and 0.5% last year. PPI year - on - year was - 3.6%, the same as the previous month but lower than - 0.8% last year. [1] - In July 2025, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) cumulative year - on - year growth was 1.6%, down from 2.8% in the previous month and 3.6% last year. Social consumer goods retail cumulative year - on - year growth was 4.8%, down from 5.0% in the previous month but higher than 3.5% last year. [1] - In July 2025, export and import year - on - year growth were 7.2% and 4.1% respectively, both showing an upward trend compared to the previous month. [1] Commodity Investment Comprehensive - From September 5, 2025, the Shanghai Gold Exchange will adjust the margin levels and price limit ranges for multiple gold and silver contracts. [2] - The London Metal Exchange postponed its Asian opening on a Wednesday by 90 minutes without stating a reason. [2] - Major paper mills announced price increases in early September due to rising raw material costs, and the industry's supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the second half of the year. [2] - China imposed anti - dumping duties on certain optical fibers imported from the US, with different tax rates for different companies. [3] - China's August S&P Global services PMI was 53, and the composite PMI was 51.9, both higher than the previous month. [3] Metals - Gold prices reached new highs on September 3, 2025, with London Gold Spot and COMEX Gold hitting record levels, and domestic gold prices also rising. [4] - The World Gold Council is seeking to introduce digital gold, which may transform the London gold market. [5] - Nickel and tin inventories increased on September 2, 2025, while lead and zinc inventories decreased. [6] - Citi adjusted its price forecasts for silver, aluminum, and copper, expressing optimism about copper prices. [6] Coal - Coking - Steel - Mining - Since July 2025, steel prices have recovered, and upstream coking coal and coke prices have risen significantly. The steel market in September may see an upward trend. [7] - Shaanxi has made achievements in mineral exploration during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, exceeding the national targets. [8] - The EU is working on new steel and aluminum safeguard measures after 2026. [8] Energy and Chemicals - On September 3, 2025, international oil prices declined due to potential OPEC+ production increases, an unexpected increase in US API crude inventories, and reduced geopolitical concerns. [9] - OPEC's August oil production increased by 400,000 barrels per day. [10] - Russia's September oil exports from western ports are expected to decline by 6% compared to August. [10] - Colombia's July oil production decreased by 4.8% year - on - year. [10] - Citi slightly lowered its 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast. [10] Agricultural Products - India's August soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month, while palm oil imports increased by 16%. [11] - Argentina's August agricultural product export revenue decreased by 25% year - on - year. [11] - Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 10.22% month - on - month. [12] Financial News Open Market - On September 3, 2025, the central bank conducted 229.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion yuan. [13] Key News - The joint working group of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank discussed issues related to the bond market and aims to promote its stable development. [14] - Since the implementation of the "science and technology board" policy in the bond market, the issuance of science and technology innovation bonds has accelerated, with a total issuance scale exceeding 1.02 trillion yuan since May. [14] - Tianjin's first private technology enterprise science and technology innovation bond was successfully issued. [14] - The China - SCO Digital Economy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Tianjin. [15] - 12 provinces have raised their minimum wage standards this year, and all 31 provinces' highest - grade monthly minimum wage standards exceed 2000 yuan. [16] - Shanghai's "Six Measures" for the property market have had a positive initial impact, and the market is expected to recover. [16] - In 2024, the total issuance of green and sustainable debt in Hong Kong reached 84.4 billion US dollars, and the HKMA is researching the application of tokenization technology in sustainable finance. [17] - The global long - term treasury bond sell - off intensifies, with yields rising in many countries. [17] - There were corporate events such as leadership changes, name changes, and bond redemptions in the corporate bond market. [18] - Some companies' credit ratings were confirmed or adjusted by international rating agencies. [18] Bond Market Review - The bond market was positive on September 3, 2025, with yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market falling, and treasury bond futures rising. [19] - The currency market interest rates showed mixed trends, and some short - term Shibor rates reached new lows. [20] - The winning bid yields and multiples of some financial bonds and treasury bonds were announced. [21] - Repurchase fixed - rate and inter - bank repurchase fixed - rate showed different trends, and European and US bond yields generally declined. [22] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on September 3, 2025, while the RMB central parity rate was depreciated. The US dollar index declined, and most non - US currencies rose. [23] Research Report Highlights - Xingzheng Fixed Income believes that the yields and credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds are at relatively high levels since 2021, and the long - end US bond yields may rise. [24] - Huatai Fixed Income reports that "fixed income +" products have experienced large - scale redemptions, affecting the stock - bond relationship. [25] - Xingzheng Fixed Income also points out that the PMI in August shows some improvements, but the bond market may be affected by the equity market. [25] Stock Market - The A - share market was segmented on September 3, 2025, with the ChiNext Index rising, and the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index falling. The market turnover decreased. [27] - The Hong Kong stock market declined, with financial and consumer sectors falling and pharmaceutical stocks rising. Southbound funds had a large - scale net inflow, and Alibaba was significantly added. [28] - Southbound funds' net inflow to the Hong Kong stock market reached a record high this year, and most Hong Kong - Stock Connect stocks' shareholdings increased. [28] - 41 brokerages have completed their September golden stock recommendations, and they are generally optimistic about the A - share market. [28] - Since August, institutions have actively investigated North Exchange listed companies. [29]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Global risk appetite has increased due to multiple Federal Reserve officials signaling potential interest rate cuts, while in China, although there are signs of improvement in the manufacturing PMI, it has remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. Market sentiment is divided, with a focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors show various trends. Metals may have short - term fluctuations, energy chemicals are affected by supply - demand and geopolitical factors, and agricultural products are influenced by factors such as harvest seasons and trade policies. 3. Summary by Category Macro - finance - Overseas: Multiple Federal Reserve officials are paving the way for interest rate cuts. The Beige Book shows that economic activity is basically flat, the number of job openings in the US has unexpectedly dropped to the lowest level in nearly a year, indicating a slowdown in the job market, and the US dollar index has weakened [2]. - Domestic: China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Market sentiment has cooled, and risk appetite has decreased [2]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a cautious long - position approach; treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate, with a cautious wait - and - see attitude; different commodity sectors have different short - term trends and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Stock Indices - The domestic stock market has declined significantly, dragged down by sectors such as military, small metals, and securities. The short - term upward macro - driving force has weakened, and attention should be paid to the progress of China - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious wait - and - see is recommended [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak on Wednesday. Real - world demand has weakened, inventories have accumulated, and although there is short - term supply reduction due to production restrictions, the probability of steel mill复产 next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: On Wednesday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore rebounded slightly. Ore demand has decreased, but steel mills are likely to resume production next week. The supply of iron ore has increased this week, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese remained flat, and the futures prices declined slightly. The production in different regions has different trends, and the prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI in August showed a slight slowdown in the contraction rate. Domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, but a September Fed interest rate cut may briefly boost copper prices [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Wednesday, aluminum prices rose and then fell. The inventory has increased, and the medium - term upward space is limited. In the short term, it is expected to remain volatile [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and demand is weak. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward space is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. Supply is expected to ease, and demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upward space [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The main contract of lithium carbonate fell on Wednesday. It is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation, with a short - term short and long - term long view [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon fell on Wednesday. It is expected to fluctuate within a range [12]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon rose on Wednesday. It is expected to remain at a high level and fluctuate in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ may consider further production increases, and the price will continue to be priced between supply surplus and geopolitical supply risks. The spot market has slightly recovered in the short term, and the futures market is waiting for long - term bearish signals [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt market fluctuates following the oil price. The cost - driven logic exists in the short term. Attention should be paid to the extent of its follow - up increase with the oil price in the later stage [14]. - **PX**: The price of PX is generally weak, supported only by maintenance plans. It is expected to remain volatile and wait for changes in PTA devices [14]. - **PTA**: The price is affected by downstream start - up recovery and upstream costs. It is expected to continue narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas device problems, port inventory has decreased significantly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to downstream start - up recovery and crude oil cost fluctuations [15]. - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber price has rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals show marginal improvement signs. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **PP**: The supply has reached a new high, and demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent currently. The price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans has weakened. The weekly crop growth report shows changes in the excellent - good rate, pod - setting rate, and defoliation rate. The export inspection volume has also been reported [18]. - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The price of CBOT soybeans may be under pressure, and the risk preference of protein meals may decrease. Attention should be paid to China - Canada trade policies [19]. - **Oils**: The price of Malaysian palm oil futures has fallen. The inventory in August is expected to increase continuously. Domestic palm oil is expected to fluctuate in the short term [19]. - **Corn**: New - season corn has been slightly listed in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [20]. - **Pigs**: The supply and demand of pigs will both increase in September. The pig price is expected to show a weakly fluctuating trend [20].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - Domestic policies for boosting service consumption and real - estate are being advanced, but their effects remain to be seen; the US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, and attention should be paid to US employment and inflation data, as well as the global credit "crisis" hype [2] - The core contradiction of the RMB exchange rate lies in the rhythm control; short - term return to the "6 era" is less likely, and it is more likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium [4] - Global debt risks weaken market risk appetite, and the stock index may enter a short - term shock adjustment phase [5] - The bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended for bonds [6] - The shipping index may fluctuate or decline slightly, considering the downward trend of Maersk's new - week opening quotes [8] - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long - term and remain strong in the short - term; a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11] - Copper may continue to oscillate before the Fed's next interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended for the medium - term [13][14] - Zinc is expected to be strong at the bottom and fluctuate in the short - term [16] - Nickel and stainless - steel markets' sentiment has cooled; stainless - steel has upward momentum, and attention should be paid to the fundamentals [17] - Tin may remain strong despite a slight decline, supported by tight supply [18][19] - The lithium carbonate market is in a shock - adjustment phase; its future trend depends on downstream actual demand [20] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a high - level shock state; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term due to the dry - season impact, and polysilicon's shock pattern may continue [22] - Lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range with limited upside and downside [24] - Steel products' fundamentals are weak; the downward space of iron ore is limited; coal - coke may fluctuate widely at a high level; silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [25][27][29][30] - Crude oil is affected by geopolitical factors; it is in a weak shock state, and attention should be paid to the September events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [33] - LPG is expected to fluctuate, affected by multiple factors such as the OPEC+ meeting [36] - PX - TA is expected to fluctuate with the cost; a strategy of narrowing the PTA01 processing fee is recommended [39] - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate within a range; a strategy of buying on dips or selling put options is recommended [42] - Methanol's port inventory is increasing; a small - amount long - position and selling put - option strategy is recommended [44][45] - PP's future trend depends on downstream demand growth; currently, its upward and downward drivers are limited [48] - PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand; it is expected to fluctuate at present [50] - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate weakly; short - term short - selling of styrene is not recommended [51][52] - Fuel oil is pushed by cost; its downward pressure remains; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended for long - position allocation; asphalt mainly follows cost fluctuations; rubber is expected to fluctuate strongly [53][54][56] - For glass, soda ash, and caustic soda, soda ash has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand; glass is in a weak - balance to weak - surplus state; caustic soda's downstream demand is increasing and its inventory is decreasing [59][61][62] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Global long - term bonds had a "black September"; the US manufacturing PMI showed marginal improvement, with new orders improving and the price index falling again [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar depreciated; the pound fell sharply; the US manufacturing PMI was lower than expected [3] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated with volume; global debt risks weakened market risk appetite; the index may enter a shock - adjustment phase [5] Treasury Bond - Treasury bonds weakened; the bond market may rebound if the A - share market remains high - level volatile; a band - trading strategy is recommended [6] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices rose; MSC planned to cancel some voyages; the index may fluctuate or decline [7][8] Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose; long - term funds increased their holdings; key data and events this week are worthy of attention; a long - position strategy is recommended [9][10][11] Copper - Copper prices were slightly stronger; the price may oscillate before the Fed's interest - rate decision; a low - level procurement strategy is recommended [12][13][14] Zinc - Zinc prices were strong at the bottom; the supply was in surplus, and the demand might improve; a short - term shock - at - bottom view is held [16] Nickel and Stainless - Steel - Nickel prices fell slightly, and stainless - steel prices were strong; the market sentiment cooled; stainless - steel had upward momentum [17] Tin - Tin prices fell slightly; the supply was tight, and the price may remain strong [18][19] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices fell; the market entered a shock - adjustment phase; the future trend depends on downstream demand [19][20] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon prices were in a high - level shock; industrial silicon may rise in the long - term, and polysilicon may continue to shock [21][22] Lead - Lead prices fluctuated within a narrow range; the supply was weak, and the demand was in a "not - booming in peak - season" state [24] Black Building Materials Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel products' prices were in short - term equilibrium; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; the market may be in a negative - feedback stage [25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rebounded; the steel industry was in a weak - stable state; the iron ore's downward space may be limited [27] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices oscillated; the supply was relatively loose; the future trend depends on downstream demand [29] Silicon - Iron and Silicon - Manganese - Silicon - iron and silicon - manganese prices were at the bottom; the supply was loose, and the demand was weak; a long - spread strategy is recommended [30][31] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rose; geopolitical factors affected the price; the oil market was in a weak shock state [32][33] LPG - LPG prices fluctuated; the supply was loose, and the demand was stable; the future trend depends on the OPEC+ meeting [35][36] PTA - PX - PX and PTA prices fluctuated with the cost; the supply of PX may increase, and the PTA processing fee is recommended to be narrowed [37][39] MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol prices fell; the supply may decrease slightly, and the demand was seasonal; a range - trading strategy is recommended [41][42] Methanol - Methanol prices were stable; the port inventory increased; a long - position strategy is recommended [43][44][45] PP - PP prices fell slightly; the supply increased, and the demand was uncertain; the future trend depends on downstream demand [47][48] PE - PE prices fell slightly; the supply decreased, and the demand increased; the market may oscillate [49][50] Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene and styrene prices fell; the supply and demand of pure benzene were balanced, and styrene's supply may increase in the future; a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [51][52] Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices rose; the supply increased, and the demand was stable; the price may be suppressed by the spot market [53][54] Asphalt - Asphalt prices rose and then fell; the supply was stable, and the demand was affected by rain; the price mainly followed the cost [55][56] Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - Rubber prices were strong; the supply may increase, and the demand may turn warm; the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [57][58] Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda ash prices fell slightly; the supply was high, and the demand was weak; glass prices fell slightly; the supply may increase, and the demand was weak; caustic soda prices fell; the supply decreased slightly, and the demand increased [59][61][62]