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“避险资产”地位引发质疑 美债收益率触及关键高位
智通财经网· 2025-05-19 22:41
智通财经APP获悉,在穆迪上周下调美国主权信用评级后,美国国债收益率周一虽自盘中高点有所回 落,整体仍维持在高位,凸显市场对美国财政状况的持续担忧。多项关键期限的国债收益率再次触及或 逼近金融市场高度敏感的关键水平。 数据显示,30年期美债收益率一度升至5.03%,创下自2023年11月以来新高,随后回落至4.921%,仍较 前一交易日上升2个基点。10年期美债收益率同样上涨2个基点至4.459%,而2年期美债收益率则微跌1 个基点至3.972%。值得注意的是,债券收益率与价格走势相反,收益率走高意味着价格下跌。 虽然穆迪的降级消息最初引发市场不安,随着交易日展开,部分投资者选择逢低买入国债,推动收益率 从高点小幅回落。 上周五,穆迪将美国的长期主权信用评级从最高级别"Aaa"下调至"Aa1",理由是美国政府预算赤字日 益扩大,以及在高利率背景下,滚动发行旧债的成本大幅上升。 穆迪在声明中指出:"我们21级评级体系中这一级的下调,反映的是超过十年的政府债务增长,以及利 息支付比例已显著高于其他同评级国家。"自1949年以来,美国一直维持穆迪的"Aaa"国家评级。如今, 美国在三大评级机构中的评级终于趋于一致, ...
穆迪下调美国主权信用评级!外交部回应
第一财经· 2025-05-19 15:05
2025.05. 19 本文字数:2393,阅读时长大约4分钟 此前,标准普尔于2011年8月将美国评级从AAA下调至AA+,惠誉评级也于2023年8月将美国评级从 AAA下调至AA+。 目前,全球三大评级机构对美国的主权信用评级保持一致,均给予美国第二高评级。 作者 | 第一财经 葛唯尔 国际评级机构穆迪(Moody's Ratings)调降美国信用评级后,"卖出美国"交易似再有抬头。 对特朗普政府关税政策和美国债台高筑的担忧引发了投资者对美国国债是否仍是全球投资者避险资产 的质疑。 截至记者发稿前,30年期美国国债收益率上涨超过12个基点,至5.02%。10年期美国国债收益率上 涨10个基点,至4.54%。与此同时,2年期美国国债收益率上涨超过2个基点,达到4%。 根据机构Tullett Prebon的数据,30年期美国国债收益率上一次突破5%的盘中高点是在4月15日, 当时达到5.002%。如果当地时间19日的收益率收于该水平上方,这将是自2023年10月31日达到 5.022%之后的首次。 美股盘前,道指期指跌近300点,标普500指数和纳指期指的跌幅分别在1.1%和1.5%。芝加哥期权 交易所波动率 ...
美债,再遭抛售
凤凰网财经· 2025-05-19 14:12
Core Viewpoint - The recent downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's has led to a significant sell-off in U.S. Treasury bonds, with the 30-year yield surpassing the psychological threshold of 5%, marking the highest level since 2007 [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 4 basis points to 4.52%, while the 30-year yield rose by 6 basis points to 5.00%, nearing the peak of 5.18% reached in 2023 [1] - U.S. stock futures also declined, with the S&P 500 futures dropping by 0.6%, and the U.S. dollar index continuing its recent downward trend [1] Group 2: Reasons for Downgrade - Moody's cited the persistently high fiscal deficit and the rising proportion of interest payments relative to fiscal revenue as the primary reasons for the downgrade [1] - The agency emphasized the failure of multiple administrations and Congresses to reach effective solutions for improving fiscal discipline, with ongoing discussions about tax cuts exacerbating market concerns [1] Group 3: Future Implications - Max Gokhman, Deputy Chief Investment Officer at Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions, indicated that the downgrade could accelerate large investors, such as sovereign funds, to replace U.S. Treasuries with other safe-haven assets, potentially creating a vicious cycle of rising yields and intensified selling [1] - Wells Fargo's strategy team predicts that the yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries may rise by an additional 5-10 basis points as a result of this event [1]
30年期美债收益率破5%!外交部这样回应穆迪调降美国评级
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 13:19
Group 1 - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies and rising U.S. debt have led investors to question whether U.S. Treasury bonds remain a safe haven asset for global investors [1][3] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting rising government debt and interest payment ratios significantly higher than similar sovereign nations [3][4] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield rose over 12 basis points to 5.02%, while the 10-year yield increased by 10 basis points to 4.54% [1] Group 2 - The House Budget Committee approved Trump's tax and spending proposal, which is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt trends [4] - Moody's indicated that the current fiscal proposals are unlikely to lead to significant long-term reductions in spending and deficits [4] - The proportion of mandatory spending, including interest payments, is projected to rise from approximately 73% in 2024 to about 78% by 2035 [4] Group 3 - Despite heightened risk aversion, some analysts believe Moody's downgrade will not have a lasting impact on the market, as it was largely anticipated [5] - The cost of U.S. government debt default insurance, measured by five-year CDS rates, slightly increased to 55 basis points [5]
主权信用降级效应显现 美债收益率周一盘前飙升
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 12:34
新华财经北京5月19日电在穆迪上周五以财政担忧为由下调美国信用评级后, 令投资者再次感受到动荡,此举重新点燃了"抛售美国"的 交易,美债收益率周一(19日)盘前全线大幅上行。 在投资者抛售的美债中,长期债券为主要抛售对象。截至新华财经发稿时,2年期美债收益率上升逾4.2BPs至4.025%,10年期美债收益 率一度大涨11.7BPs至4.556%,30年期美债收益率飙升13.1BPs至5.027%,为2023年10月31日以来最高水平。 上周五,评级机构穆迪将美国的信用评级从最高的AAA下调一级至Aa1,投资者的担忧随之加剧。穆迪将下调评级的原因归结为,联邦 政府预算赤字融资的负担日益加重,以及在高利率背景下现有债务展期的高成本。 自1949年以来,穆迪一直将美国的"国家上限评级"定为AAA。 德银分析师在一份报告中表示:"这是一个重大的象征性举措,因为穆迪是最后一家给予美国最高评级的主要评级机构。" 欧债方面,主要国家政府债券收益率周一整体上扬,10年期德债收益率涨5.3BPs至2.639%,10年期意债收益率涨7.3BPs至3.677%,10年 期法债收益率涨5.7BPs至3.319%。 美国财政部长斯科 ...
刚刚,股债汇“三杀”!
华尔街见闻· 2025-05-19 11:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant decline in U.S. stock futures, bond prices, and the dollar index, alongside a rise in safe-haven currencies and gold, driven by concerns over U.S. fiscal health and a recent credit rating downgrade by Moody's [10][11]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. stock index futures are showing a downward trend, with the Dow futures down nearly 0.9%, S&P 500 futures down over 1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down over 1.5% [6][7]. - The U.S. Treasury market is experiencing a large-scale sell-off, with the 30-year Treasury yield rising to 5.02%, marking the highest level since November 2023 [3][5]. - The dollar index has dropped over 0.7%, while the euro has appreciated approximately 1% against the dollar, reaching its highest level since May 9 [5]. Group 2: Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year U.S. Treasury yield has increased by over 12 basis points, reflecting investor concerns about the long-term fiscal health of the U.S. [3][5]. - Analysts predict that the recent downgrade by Moody's could lead to an additional rise of 5-10 basis points in the yields of 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasuries [5][11]. Group 3: Commodity and Currency Movements - Gold prices have surged over 1%, with spot gold reaching above $3,230 per ounce, benefiting from the deteriorating U.S. fiscal situation [8]. - Traditional safe-haven currencies like the yen and Swiss franc have gained strength amid rising uncertainties regarding U.S. debt [5][10]. Group 4: Credit Rating Impact - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing worsening fiscal deficits and political polarization as factors undermining the credit foundation of the world's largest economy [10][11]. - Market analysts believe this downgrade will prompt investors to reassess the risk premium associated with U.S. assets, potentially leading to a shift towards non-U.S. assets [11].
美国“债务炸弹”被点燃!黄金急涨,美元、美债“雪崩”预警
美股研究社· 2025-05-19 10:51
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1, attributing it to rising budget deficits and concerns over U.S. economic policies, which may lead to increased volatility in financial markets [4][6]. Group 1: U.S. Credit Rating Downgrade - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating, citing the expansion of budget deficits and lack of signs of reduction [4]. - The downgrade is expected to heighten concerns in the U.S. sovereign bond market, potentially leading to a slowdown in the U.S. economy [4][6]. - Analysts predict that the yields on 10-year and 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds may rise by 5-10 basis points due to the downgrade [6]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Rising U.S. Treasury yields could increase government interest expenses, complicating the government's ability to cut spending and potentially raising loan rates for mortgages and credit cards [7]. - The U.S. federal budget deficit is projected to reach nearly $2 trillion annually, exceeding 6% of GDP, with expectations that it will rise to nearly 9% of GDP by 2035 [8]. - Despite the downgrade, some analysts believe it will not significantly impact Congress's voting behavior or lead to forced selling of U.S. Treasuries [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the downgrade, gold prices opened higher, while U.S. stock index futures and oil prices experienced declines [4]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index is nearing its lowest point since April, reflecting growing skepticism about the U.S. dollar amid rising Treasury yields [6]. - Foreign demand for U.S. government securities remains strong, indicating no immediate signs of aversion to U.S. debt despite recent concerns [8].
收藏 “卖出美国”!30年美债收益率升破5% 美元加剧下跌 美股盘前科技股多数走低 现货黄金涨1%
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-05-19 10:22
穆迪调降美国信用评级持续引发美国资本市场震动,"卖出美国"交易抬头,市场出现股债汇"三杀"局面。 债市方面,美国国债市场遭遇大规模抛售,30年期国债收益率持续攀升超12基点、午后突破5%心理关口,随后进一步攀升至5.02%,为2023年11 月以来的最高水平。10年期国债收益率同样攀升至4.5%以上,反映出投资者对美国长期财政健康状况的担忧。 富国银行策略师Michael Schumacher等人在一份报告中预计,"受穆迪降级影响,美国10年期和30年期国债收益率将再上涨5-10个基点"。 另外,欧元区债券扩大跌幅,意大利、葡萄牙30年期债券收益率上涨5个基点。英国30年期国债收益率上升9个基点,达到5.48%,为4月11日以来 的最高水平。 外汇方面,随着美国债务问题的不确定性上升,美元指数跌超0.7%,日元和瑞士法郎等传统避险货币则获得提振。欧元兑美元上涨1%至1.1273, 为5月9日以来的最高水平。 周一,美国指数期货、美债价格、美元指数携手走低,日元、瑞士法郎、欧元齐涨、黄金涨超1%,油价小幅走低。 美股指数期货齐跌。当前,道指期货下跌近0.9%,标普500指数期货跌超1%,纳斯达克100指数期货跌 ...
创金合信基金魏凤春:相持期的并购重组
Xin Lang Ji Jin· 2025-05-19 08:22
Group 1 - The market has entered a new phase of strategic equilibrium following the US-China negotiations, with a shift towards internal economic growth in China and a reduction in global risk aversion [1][2] - Gold prices have adjusted significantly, with COMEX gold down 4.1% as the need for safe-haven assets diminishes due to improved geopolitical stability [1][2] - The Nasdaq index saw a weekly increase of 7.2%, benefiting from the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones also recorded gains [2][3] Group 2 - The recent financial data indicates a significant drop in new bank loans in China, with only 280 billion yuan in new loans in April 2025, the lowest since 2005 for the same period [3][4] - The US has faced a downgrade in its credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 by Moody's, primarily due to rising debt and interest payment concerns, which could lead to increased borrowing costs [4][5] - The loss of credibility in the US is attributed to both rising debt pressures and inconsistent political commitments, which may increase transaction costs in international dealings [6][7] Group 3 - The ongoing trade war has led to a deterioration in market trust, increasing transaction costs and complicating contractual agreements [5][6] - The financial strain on companies is linked to poor resource allocation and aggressive expansion strategies, which could lead to a rise in financial crises and loss of credibility [8][9] - Mergers and acquisitions are becoming a focal point for investors, with a need for careful analysis of post-merger competitiveness to achieve desired returns [10][11]
丹斯克银行:穆迪下调美国评级的市场影响应该是有限的
news flash· 2025-05-19 07:28
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the market impact of Moody's downgrade of the US rating is expected to be limited, despite the downgrade indicating concerns over the US fiscal outlook and political willingness to address these issues [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating from Aaa to Aa1 and changed the outlook from negative to stable, citing rising government debt as the reason [1] - Danske Bank analysts believe that the downgrade serves as further evidence of the troubling fiscal prospects for the US [1] - The report emphasizes a lack of political will in Washington to resolve the ongoing fiscal challenges [1]