Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" rating for the steel industry and the non-ferrous metals industry, with "Buy" ratings for specific companies including Luoyang Molybdenum, Zhongjin Gold, Huayou Cobalt, Zijin Mining, and China Aluminum [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is expected to weaken due to seasonal factors, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [19][20]. - Copper prices may rise if demand improves post-holiday, despite current inventory accumulation [40]. - The aluminum sector is influenced by macroeconomic sentiment, with a focus on demand recovery after the Spring Festival [46]. - Gold prices are supported by geopolitical risks, with potential upward pressure from U.S. Federal Reserve policies [52]. - The rare earth market is expected to maintain tight supply conditions, supporting prices for praseodymium and neodymium [66]. Summary by Sections Steel Industry - Steel production is declining as companies prepare for the Spring Festival, with total inventory increasing [19][21]. - As of February 6, the total steel inventory was 13.39 million tons, up 4.36% week-on-week, but down 19.42% year-on-year [28]. - The average price index for steel on February 6 was 3,414.24 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous week [37]. Copper Industry - Copper prices have decreased, but new orders are increasing, indicating seasonal demand characteristics [40]. - As of February 6, LME copper prices were $12,800/ton, down 3.96% from January 30 [43]. Aluminum Industry - Domestic bauxite supply is sufficient, but aluminum processing companies are reducing production due to price volatility and regulatory pressures [46]. - As of February 6, LME aluminum prices were $3,000/ton, down 2.09% from January 30 [47]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical tensions and U.S. economic data are influencing gold prices, which are expected to find support from these factors [52]. - As of February 6, COMEX gold prices were $4,988.60/oz, up 1.65% from January 30 [52]. Rare Earths - The supply of praseodymium and neodymium is expected to remain tight, supporting price stability [66]. - As of February 6, the price of praseodymium oxide was 757,500 yuan/ton, up 1.20% from January 30 [66].

Core Insights - The inspection by Hubei Special Inspection Institute's Huangshi branch successfully identified safety hazards in a steel plant's heat storage device, which had exceeded its design lifespan of 10 years, thus ensuring safe production for the enterprise [1][2] Group 1: Inspection Findings - The heat storage device has a volume of 150 cubic meters and was put into operation in July 2011, with a design pressure of 2.65 MPa and a design temperature of 250 degrees Celsius [1] - The inspection revealed fatigue cracks in the circumferential welds between the internal supports and pads, caused by alternating stress from thermal expansion and contraction during operation [1] - Additional issues included multiple mechanical damages on the inner wall of the container and several leaks in the heat exchange tubes, all of which posed significant safety risks [1] Group 2: Remedial Actions - Inspectors communicated with the enterprise's technical head to analyze the defects and develop a scientific rectification plan [2] - The remediation involved grinding and welding the fatigue cracks, followed by magnetic particle testing to ensure weld quality, as well as professional grinding of mechanical damage and individual welding of leaking heat exchange tubes [2] - All defects were rectified according to regulations, and subsequent inspections confirmed that the equipment met safety operation standards, successfully eliminating the safety hazards [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The Huangshi branch emphasizes the importance of special equipment safety, focusing on inspections of aging and high-risk equipment [2] - The institute aims to enhance technical services for key enterprises and high-risk devices, leveraging professional expertise to support safe production and strengthen the safety framework for special equipment in the region [2]

价 格 和 利 润 | | | | 钢材早报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 研究中心黑色团队 2026/02/10 | | | 现 货 价 格 | | | | | | | | 日期 | 北京螺纹 | 上海螺纹 | 成都螺纹 | 西安螺纹 | 广州螺纹 | 武汉螺纹 | | 2026/02/03 | 3120 | 3210 | 3370 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/04 | 3120 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/05 | 3120 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3310 | | 2026/02/06 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 2026/02/09 | 3100 | 3210 | 3320 | 3240 | 3400 | 3300 | | 变化 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | 日期 | 天津热卷 ...

Core Viewpoint - New Steel Co., Ltd. has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial results, with a notable increase in net profit despite a decline in revenue [2][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - On February 10, New Steel's stock price increased by 2.05%, reaching 3.98 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.53 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.25%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 12.672 billion CNY [1]. - Year-to-date, New Steel's stock price has risen by 2.58%, with a 4.74% increase over the last five trading days, a 1.79% increase over the last 20 days, and a 7.66% decrease over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, New Steel reported an operating revenue of 27.225 billion CNY, a year-on-year decrease of 12.68%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 360 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 162.21% [2]. - Since its A-share listing, New Steel has distributed a total of 5.584 billion CNY in dividends, with 816 million CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of October 31, New Steel had 38,200 shareholders, with an average of 82,368 circulating shares per person, showing no change from the previous period [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited as the second-largest shareholder, increasing its holdings by 49.8782 million shares to 83.8502 million shares [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price continues to oscillate and seek the bottom under weak demand. The downstream demand slump is the key factor dragging down the steel price. With the Spring Festival approaching, the spot market gradually enters the holiday rhythm, and there may still be capital leaving the market before the festival, resulting in a decline in market trading. The macro - situation is calm and has little impact on the price. The raw materials are expected to run weakly in an oscillating manner, and attention should be paid to the 3000 support level for rebar [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Automobile Industry - In 2026, China will optimize the implementation of automobile trade - in programs, carry out pilot reforms on automobile circulation and consumption, improve industry management systems, and take multiple measures to promote the expansion and quality improvement of automobile consumption. In 2025, the sales volume of light commercial vehicles reached 2.901 million, a year - on - year increase of 6.5%. In 2026, the annual sales volume is expected to increase slightly by 0.3% to about 2.911 million [2] 3.2 Steel Industry - On February 9, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3358 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with last Friday. The average profit was a loss of 83 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 24 yuan/ton. The finished steel oscillated weakly yesterday, with a small overall price fluctuation but hitting a new low recently [2]

Group 1 - The overall equity market experienced adjustments, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.27% to 4065.58 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index falling by 2.11% to 13906.73 points [8][10] - The convertible bond market showed weak fluctuations, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.05% and the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index decreasing by 0.36% [15][16] - The bond market saw most yields rise, with the 1-year government bond yield increasing by 2.08 basis points, while the 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, and 10-year yields decreased [18][19] Group 2 - The commodity futures market weakened overall, with significant declines in silver prices, which dropped by 9.06%, while gold prices increased by 1.65% [9][28] - The market for agricultural products showed mixed results, with CBOT soybeans rising by 4.75% and corn increasing by 0.58% [9][10] - The overall commodity index experienced a decline of 4.49%, with precious metals leading the drop at 17.11% [27][30]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铝】2月5日，位于内蒙古的达拉特-蒙西1000千伏 交流输变电工程获国家发改委核准。该工程是蒙西-京津冀特高 压直流工程的配套项目，投资43.74亿元，旨在强化区域电网结 构。评：项目正式开工后，将带来可观的铝材消耗，印证了以 电网升级、光伏及储能为代表的新能源领域，是铝消费增长最 确定的结构性引擎。目前新能源长期需求故事坚实，但当下受 限于传统消费淡季，下游加工企业备货基本结束，市场交投清 淡。节前预计铝价维持震荡格局，等待节后需求复苏。 【短评-原油】俄罗斯1月原油产量连续第二个月下降，平 均日产量降至928万桶（不含凝析油），较12月减少4.6万桶/ 日，且低于其在欧佩克+协议中允许的产量近30万桶/日； 据新 华社援引伊朗伊斯兰共和国通讯社报道说，伊朗外长阿拉格齐 表示，伊朗在伊美谈判中有两条"红线"：伊朗不会放弃铀浓 缩，也不会就本国导弹事宜进行谈判；另有报道说,当地时间2 月9日，美国向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新指南，该机构 建议"悬挂美国国旗的商船尽可能远离伊朗领海，并在被伊朗 军队要求登船时口头拒绝——如果伊朗军队登船，船员不应强 行抵抗"。评：美国加大 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore: Demand expectations are weakening, and prices are oscillating downward [2][4] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: The apparent demand is weakening month-on-month, with wide fluctuations [2][8] - Silico-manganese and ferrosilicon: The sentiment in the sector is weak, with wide fluctuations [2][12] - Coke and coking coal: Long positions are taking profits, and the market is oscillating weakly [2][16][17] - Logs: Demand expectations are poor, and prices are falling [2][20] Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 761.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.13% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 1,361 lots to 513,384 lots. Among the spot prices, the price of imported ore increased slightly, while the price of domestic ore decreased. The basis and spreads also showed certain changes [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [4] - **Trend Intensity**: -1, indicating a bearish outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For the RB2605 rebar futures contract, the closing price was 3,064 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan or 0.84%. For the HC2605 hot-rolled coil futures contract, the closing price was 3,239 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan or 0.55%. The spot prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [8][9] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data from Steel Union on February 5th, the production of rebar decreased by 8.15 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.05 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 44.04 tons, and that of hot-rolled coil increased by 3.62 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that for hot-rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the production and inventory of key steel enterprises showed different trends. BHP Billiton's first-half iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted a partial price cut in the annual contract negotiation with China. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price [9][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot-rolled coil, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Silico-manganese and Ferrosilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the silicon iron 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,610 yuan/ton and 5,594 yuan/ton respectively, down 24 yuan and 30 yuan. The closing prices of the manganese silicon 2603 and 2605 futures contracts were 5,778 yuan/ton and 5,812 yuan/ton respectively, down 38 yuan and 44 yuan. The spot prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon also showed certain changes, and the price differences between futures and spot, near and far months, and cross-varieties also had corresponding adjustments [12] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions were reported. NMT announced the March 2026 manganese ore shipment price to China, with an increase. Some steel mills determined the procurement prices and quantities of silicon iron and manganese silicon in February [12][14] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both silicon iron and manganese silicon, indicating a neutral outlook [15] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the JM2605 coking coal futures contract was 1,147 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan or 0.7%. The closing price of the J2605 coke futures contract was 1,703.5 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 0.3%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed little change, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 9th, the CCI metallurgical coal index was reported. The online coking coal auction on the same day had a high rejection rate, and the transaction prices mainly decreased [17] - **Trend Intensity**: -1 for both coke and coking coal, indicating a bearish outlook [19] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 log futures contracts showed a downward trend, and the trading volume and open interest also had certain changes. The spot prices of logs in different regions remained stable [20] - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report the "three red lines" indicators monthly, but some troubled real estate companies need to report financial indicators regularly [22] - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral outlook [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the arbitrage data of various futures varieties on February 10, 2026, including basis, inter - month spreads, and inter - commodity spreads for power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Power Coal - The basis data for power coal from February 3 to February 9, 2026, shows values ranging from - 109 to - 104 yuan/ton. The inter - month spreads of 5 - 1, 9 - 1, and 9 - 5 are all 0 [2] 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities**: Basis data for fuel oil, INE crude oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, with basis values such as 178.39, 190.88, etc. and the ratio values like 0.1361, 0.1368, etc [7] - **Chemical Commodities**: Inter - month spreads for rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PVC, PP, and ethylene glycol are given, as well as inter - commodity spreads for LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, PP - PVC, and PP - 3 * methanol. Basis data for these chemical commodities from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also presented [9][10] 3.3 Black Metals - Inter - month spreads for rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, along with inter - commodity spreads for rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, coke/coking coal, and rebar - hot rolled coil. Basis data for these black metals from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are also shown [19][20] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market**: Domestic basis data for copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are presented, with values like - 340, - 120, etc [28] - **London Market**: LME spreads, Shanghai - London ratios, CIF prices, domestic spot prices, and import profit and loss data for LME non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin) on February 9, 2026, are provided [33] 3.5 Agricultural Products - Basis data for soybeans No.1, soybeans No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, and corn from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are given. Inter - month spreads for multiple agricultural products and inter - commodity spreads for some agricultural products are also presented [41] 3.6 Stock Index Futures - Basis data for CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 from February 3 to February 9, 2026, are provided, along with inter - month spreads for these stock indices [52][54]