1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of the national carbon market carbon emission allowance (CEA) was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume of national carbon emission allowances was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons from the previous period, indicating a decline in the activity of the carbon emission spot market [3][32][68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment issued a notice on the work related to the national carbon emission trading market in 2026, including strengthening the management of the list of key emission units, data quality, quota allocation and settlement, and the management requirements for other key industries [9]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) officially came into effect on January 1, 2026. The EU's setting of a significantly high default value for China's product carbon emission intensity and plans to expand the product coverage range are unfair and discriminatory, and China firmly opposes these practices [30][31]. 3.2 National Carbon Market Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. In the past 30 trading days, the average trading volume was 463,000 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.465 million tons, indicating a decline in market activity [32]. 3.3 Carbon Price Influence Factor Analysis 3.3.1 Energy Price - As of February 25, 2026, the price of steam coal at Qinhuangdao Port showed an increase compared to the end of the previous month but a decrease compared to the end of 2025. The pithead price of steam coal also showed a similar trend. The coke price remained flat compared to the end of the previous month but decreased compared to the end of 2025. The LNG ex-factory price index decreased compared to the previous period, and the European natural gas spot price decreased compared to the end of the previous month and the end of 2025 [35][36][37]. 3.3.2 Energy Consumption In 2025 from January to December, the cumulative apparent consumption of natural gas in the country was 426.55 billion cubic meters, 500 million cubic meters more than the previous year; the cumulative apparent consumption of coke was 496.7758 million tons, 15.706 million tons more than the previous year; the total apparent consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel was 376.7113 million tons, 6.2874 million tons less than the previous year [40]. 3.3.3 Domestic Carbon Emission Structure China's total carbon emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons, accounting for about one-third of the world's carbon emissions. The largest source of carbon emissions in China is the "Electricity, Steam and Hot Water Production and Supply" industry, followed by the "Ferrous Metal Smelting and Rolling Processing" industry. In terms of energy types, carbon emissions mainly come from the consumption of coal, followed by fuel oil and natural gas [44][51]. 3.3.4 Total Social Electricity Consumption In 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1,0368.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 5.0%. The electricity consumption of the tertiary industry and urban and rural residents' living contributed 50% to the growth of electricity consumption. The slowdown in the growth rate of the secondary industry's electricity consumption was in line with China's economic structural transformation [54][55]. 3.3.5 Power Generation Structure In December 2025, the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 858.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 0.1%. The total power generation of four types of clean energy accounted for 32.3% of the total power generation, an increase of 2.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In 2025, the thermal power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size showed a year-on-year negative growth for the first time since 2014, indicating a turning point in the development model of the power industry [58][60][61]. 3.4 Conclusion As of February 25, 2026, the closing price of CEA was 81.00 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous month and down 9.75% compared to the same period last year. The average trading volume decreased month-on-month, indicating a decline in market activity. The price of steam coal showed a short-term strong trend. In 2025, the apparent consumption of natural gas and coke increased, while the total consumption of gasoline, kerosene, and diesel decreased. In December 2025, the total social electricity consumption and the power generation of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased year-on-year, and the proportion of clean energy power generation increased [68][69][71].

Industrial Sector - After the Spring Festival, daily average pig iron production and float glass operating rates have increased, indicating a recovery in industrial production[2] - Cement clinker capacity utilization rate has decreased, while asphalt operating rates have also shown a decline[2] - The operating rate of polyester in the textile sector has improved, while weaving industry rates have seasonally weakened[2] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities have seen a year-on-year decline of 24.6%, but this is an improvement of 2.1 percentage points compared to December 2025[2] - The second-hand housing listing price index has increased by 0.11% week-on-week as of February 16[2] Domestic Demand - Retail sales of home appliances have decreased by 12.3% year-on-year, but this represents a 10.1 percentage point improvement from previous values[2] - Domestic flight operations have increased by 17.8% year-on-year, with a growth rate improvement of 10.8 percentage points compared to the previous week[2] - National retail and catering sales during the Spring Festival have grown by 5.2% year-on-year, surpassing the 4.1% growth during the 2025 Spring Festival[2] External Demand - Port cargo throughput has increased by 15.1% year-on-year, with container throughput rising by 19.3%[2] - Exports to South Korea and Japan have grown by 23.5% year-on-year, with a significant acceleration of 25.8 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Prices - The Nanhua Industrial Price Index has risen by 2.5%, with the non-ferrous metals index increasing by 4.5%[2] - The agricultural product wholesale price index has decreased by 3.1% week-on-week, reflecting seasonal declines[2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals and energy - chemical sectors next week, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the duration and intensity of the US - Iran conflict. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. In the short term, the prices of precious metals and crude oil will soar, and rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals such as PTA, styrene, and PE. Methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in a state of oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [2][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 One - Week Review: Commodities Rose Across the Board, with Precious Metals Leading - This week (02.23 - 03.01), commodity prices generally rose. In terms of sectors: precious metals > non - ferrous metals > energy > agricultural products > oil - chemical > black metals > coal - chemical. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran and uncertainties in US tariff policies led to an increase in market risk - aversion sentiment, resulting in large increases in precious metals and energy [1][11]. - The Trump administration's plan to set reference prices for key minerals boosted the sentiment of non - ferrous metals. Supply - side concerns drove up the prices of tin and lithium carbonate significantly. After the Spring Festival, demand declined, causing the prices of agricultural products such as pigs to fall, but the prices of cotton and soybean oil increased [1][11]. - Shanghai's real - estate policies boosted the sentiment of black commodities, but the effectiveness of the policies remains to be seen, and the increase in black commodities was limited. Rising oil prices supported the prices of aromatic and olefin chains, but the supply and inventory of the chlor - alkali sector were high, and downstream demand was weak, resulting in weak price performance [1][11]. 3.1.2 Next - Week Outlook: Geopolitical Conflicts Intensify, Precious Metals and Energy - Chemicals Strengthen - Geopolitical conflicts will drive the strength of precious metals, energy - chemical and other sectors, but the sustainability of the rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. The positive impact of geopolitical conflicts on the non - ferrous metals sector is weaker than that on the energy sector, but the fundamentals of the non - ferrous metals sector are stronger than those of the energy - chemical sector [2][19]. - Real - estate policies have been implemented, but domestic demand cannot improve quickly, so the upward momentum of black commodities is weak. The opportunities in the agricultural products sector are structural. Overall, next week, energy and precious metals > chemicals > non - ferrous metals > agricultural products > real - estate - related commodities such as black metals [2][19]. - Geopolitical conflicts are the main line of trading for various commodities. The US - Iran situation has deteriorated sharply, and market risk - aversion sentiment will rise. In the short term, the prices of precious metals will soar. Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz will disrupt crude oil supply, and oil prices are expected to rise. Rising oil prices will drive up the prices of chemicals, and methanol will also be supported by geopolitical premiums [2][19]. - Whether precious metals and energy - chemical commodities can continue to rise depends on the US - Iran conflict. If the conflict intensifies and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, geopolitical premiums may support further price increases. If the conflict subsides quickly, the short - term price increase may present a selling opportunity [20]. - Excluding geopolitical factors, there are many positive narratives for non - ferrous metals, but price increases await the recovery of demand. The crude oil market is in oversupply, chemical product price increases require inventory digestion, and the fundamentals of real - estate - related commodities such as black metals are generally weak [20]. 3.2 Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Data Tracking - The US dollar index fell slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds declined. As of February 27, the US dollar index fell 0.10% to 97.6443 compared with February 20. The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds was 3.97%, down 11 BP from February 20. The yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year Treasury bonds was inverted by 215.1 BP [23]. - Although the US PPI in January exceeded market expectations, due to the dovish statements of some Federal Reserve officials, the expectation of interest - rate cuts increased, and the US dollar index weakened slightly. Concerns about AI impact, adjustments in US technology stocks, and rising market risk - aversion sentiment led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields [23]. - After the US - Iran conflict escalated over the weekend, the US dollar index is expected to strengthen. The RMB has been appreciating recently, but considering the strengthening of the US dollar and the reduction of the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales by the Chinese central bank, the appreciation of the RMB will slow down [24]. 3.3 Upstream Raw Material Prices - Oil prices fluctuated and rose, coal prices were reported, natural gas prices fell slightly, and industrial electricity prices were also mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [32][33]. 3.4 Production - End High - Frequency Data - The blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises increased, and the daily average output of clean coal from 523 sample mines recovered [35]. - China's copper - tube production decreased, and China's electrolytic - aluminum production increased [36]. - The EIA US crude - oil production was mentioned, and the methanol capacity utilization rate increased. The PE capacity utilization rate increased slightly, the PTA plant operating rate increased, the PVC operating rate increased, and the operating rate of Chinese soda - ash enterprises increased slightly [37][40][42]. - The capacity utilization rate of float - glass enterprises was at a low level, the operating rate of all - steel tires for automobiles increased, the operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles increased, and the production of soybean meal from all - sample enterprises' pressing plants in China increased [45][46]. 3.5 Inventory - End High - Frequency Data - After the Spring Festival, the inventories of major commodities generally increased. The copper inventories of the three major exchanges continued to accumulate beyond the seasonal norm, and the corresponding basis decreased. The apparent demand for steel decreased after the Spring Festival, and the inventory continued to accumulate. The inventories of real - estate - related commodities such as PVC, glass, and soda ash generally accumulated beyond the seasonal norm. The inventories of precious metals, coking coal, and soybean meal decreased slightly [47]. 3.6 Demand - End High - Frequency Data - Shanghai announced real - estate stabilization policies this week, and some real - estate high - frequency data improved, such as the increase in the transaction area of second - hand housing in 13 cities. However, the overall improvement did not significantly exceed the seasonal level. The net financing scale of government bonds was 560.4 billion yuan, and the issuance rhythm of government bonds this year is generally ahead of schedule, and the net financing quota of government bonds is currently basically the same as that in the same period of 2025 [60]. 3.7 Key Commodity Basis - The basis of various key commodities such as gold, copper, aluminum, rebar, iron ore, coking coal, crude oil, methanol, PTA, PVC, pig, and soybean meal was mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [70]. 3.8 Commodity Price Ratios - The price ratios of various commodities such as the gold - silver ratio, gold - copper ratio, gold - oil ratio, copper - oil ratio, copper - aluminum ratio, steel - ore ratio, agricultural - industrial ratio, and pig - grain ratio were mentioned, but specific data and analysis were not elaborated in detail in the given text [78].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is not clearly stated in the report [1][3] Group 2: Core View - The core view of the report is that the steel prices are expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the start - up of the demand side and the impact of macro - policies [1][3] Group 3: Key Points from the Report - Last week, the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.09 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.93 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.3328 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,900 tons and a year - on - year increase of 53,400 tons [2] - The average capacity utilization rate of 94 independent electric arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 7.35%, basically unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 41.56 percentage points; the average operating rate was 10.14%, a month - on - month increase of 0.29 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 53.2 percentage points [2] - Tangshan City launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on March 1, 2026, and the lifting time will be notified separately [2] - At the end of last week, the ex - factory tax - included price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan increased by RMB 10/ton, reaching RMB 2,920/ton [2] - Last week, the finished steel prices first declined and then rose, fluctuating at the bottom. The main contract of rebar approached the 3,000 level at the lowest, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil briefly fell below 3,200 [2] - Last week's fundamental changes were in line with expectations, and inventory accumulation was within the normal rhythm. Although the Spring Festival holiday has passed, downstream demand has not started yet. As the Two Sessions approach, the impact of macro - level factors on prices has increased [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The black commodity market is currently in a state of weak supply and demand, with low production, low demand, and rapidly increasing inventory from a low level. The market's demand expectation for 2026 is relatively weak, and it is expected that downstream demand will gradually start after the Lantern Festival [2]. - The iron ore market is in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Steel production is at a low level, and hot metal production has rebounded from a low level. The supply side's short - term shipments are expected to remain low, but will gradually recover with improved weather. Port inventories have reached a record high, and the downward trend in the medium - term futures price continues [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Market Impact Factors**: The attack by the US and Israel on Iran over the weekend led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices on Monday, which may have a certain emotional boost to black commodities, but the market is mainly determined by supply and demand [2]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: Last week, the output of threaded rods from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, apparent demand decreased month - on - month, and total inventory continued to rise. The total output of the top five varieties decreased significantly, inventory continued to increase, and apparent demand was at its lowest level of the year [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a significant rebound, the futures price fell back, indicating strong resistance above. Due to the low current valuation, the downward space may be limited [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude and trade cautiously [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of the main contracts of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils showed different trends, and the spot prices also changed to varying degrees [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis and spread of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils changed in different directions [2]. - **Production**: The output of threaded rods and hot - rolled coils decreased, the blast furnace operating rate and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased slightly, and the profitability of steel mills improved [2]. - **Inventory**: The social and steel mill inventories of the top five varieties, threaded rods, and hot - rolled coils all increased [2]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of the top five varieties decreased significantly [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Demand Situation**: The market is currently in the off - season of consumption, and it is expected to gradually enter the peak season after the Lantern Festival. Last week, the output of the top five steel products from 247 sample steel mills continued to decline, and the daily hot metal output increased month - on - month. The market is more concerned about the spring consumption demand [4]. - **Supply Situation**: Affected by seasonal factors in the Southern Hemisphere, short - term shipments are expected to remain low, but will gradually recover with improved weather. The arrival volume has rebounded, and port inventories have continued to rise and reached a record high [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: After a short - term rebound, the futures price continued to fall, and the medium - term downward trend continued [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold short positions lightly [4]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore showed different trends [4]. - **Basis, Spread, and Variety Spread**: The basis, futures monthly spread, and variety spread of iron ore changed in different directions [4]. - **Shipping Volume**: The shipping volumes from Australia and Brazil decreased [4]. - **Freight and Exchange Rate**: The freight rates and exchange rates of iron ore changed to varying degrees [4]. - **Arrival and Port Inventory**: The arrival volume decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [4]. 3.3 Industry News - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment will promote the ultra - low emission transformation of key industries in 2026, including 100 million tons of cement clinker and 50 million tons of coking production capacity, and will also carry out inspections and rectifications of pollution control facilities and traditional industrial clusters in key regions [6]. - According to Mysteel statistics, the inventory of imported iron ore in 45 and 47 ports increased, the daily port clearance volume decreased, the number of ships in port decreased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly, the profitability of steel mills improved, and the daily hot metal output increased [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate market has shown seasonal recovery, and the resumption of work after the Spring Festival in 2026 is faster than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. The construction and chemical industries in the upstream of the black industry chain have relatively better start - up performance [2][14]. - During the Spring Festival holiday, residents' travel and consumption were good, but the movie - watching enthusiasm was lower than the same period last year. After the holiday, the sales of new and second - hand houses have rebounded. However, the latest land auction data is average [5][12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - The interest - rate bond index weakened, and the precious metal index had a significant increase [15][17]. 3.2 Industrial Production 3.2.1 Power Generation - The daily coal consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces rebounded, and the thermal coal price increased [21][22]. 3.2.2 Coking - The start - up rate of coking enterprises increased rapidly, and the prices of coking coal and coke both decreased [23][24]. 3.2.3 Steel - The blast - furnace start - up rate increased, and the spot and futures prices of iron ore and rebar both decreased [26][28]. 3.2.4 Building Materials - The cement price fluctuated slightly, and the inventories of copper and aluminum increased significantly [32]. 3.2.5 Chemical Industry - The start - up rates of methanol and soda ash have recovered, and the crude oil price fluctuated upward [44][45]. 3.2.6 Automobile - The start - up rates of automobile semi - steel tires and all - steel tires both decreased significantly [48][49]. 3.3 Resumption of Work and Production - The resumption rate of 10,692 construction sites nationwide increased by 1.5 percentage points year - on - year in the lunar calendar. The fund availability and worker resumption conditions were better than last year [2][50]. 3.4 Logistics and Transportation 3.4.1 Freight - The highway logistics freight rate index, railway transportation volume, and postal parcel collection volume all fluctuated downward [52][53][55]. 3.4.2 Passenger Transport - The subway passenger volume rebounded, and the number of domestic flights increased significantly [58]. 3.5 Terminal Demand 3.5.1 Credit - The negative spread between bill rediscount and certificates of deposit narrowed, and the rediscount rate of six - month national stock bills increased [57][59][62]. 3.5.2 Real Estate - The transaction areas of new and second - hand houses seasonally rebounded, and the increase rate of the second - hand house listing price index widened [5][63]. 3.5.3 Construction - The apparent demand for rebar decreased significantly, and the proportion of profitable steel mills increased marginally [75][77]. 3.5.4 Consumption - During the Spring Festival, the number of tourists and tourism spending reached record highs, but the movie box office was lower than the same period last year [12][76]. 3.5.5 Export - The CCFI freight rate decreased, and the port cargo throughput decreased significantly [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term strategy for stock index futures is risk defense, and after the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline. The black, non - ferrous, agricultural, and energy - chemical sectors are all affected by various factors such as geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships, with different trends and investment suggestions for each variety [9][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information - The Politburo of the CPC Central Committee discussed the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and the government work report, emphasizing more proactive macro - policies. The US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, leading to the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, which impacted the Middle East financial market. The conflict may last for about four weeks, and Iran has launched counter - attacks. The global shipping industry has been affected, and some shipping companies have adjusted their routes [4][5][6]. - In China, the 2026 National Two Sessions will be held, and economic data such as February PMI, foreign exchange, and gold reserves will be released. Internationally, the situation in Iran, the Russia - US - Ukraine negotiations, the Fed's Beige Book, and the February non - farm payroll report are attracting attention. Many companies will release their financial reports [5]. - South Korea's exports in February increased by 29% year - on - year, with semiconductor exports increasing by 160.8%. OPEC+ agreed in principle to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April. The central bank lowered the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward foreign exchange sales from 20% to 0. The US January PPI and core PPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The land acquisition amount of TOP100 enterprises from January to February decreased by 52.4% year - on - year [6][7]. Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - The short - term strategy is risk defense. After the sentiment stabilizes, IM/IC may perform better than large - cap stocks. Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market [9]. Bond Futures - Geopolitical risks may suppress the performance of the equity market and cause bond yields to decline [10]. Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The trading rhythm this year is earlier than last year. Steel mills' orders are mixed, and downstream demand is weak. The supply of iron ore is abundant, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The overall steel price is expected to fluctuate, with suggestions to sell the wide - straddle option and hold it, and to take profit on short positions in iron ore in the short - to - medium term and hold some short positions lightly in the long term [12][13]. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. After the holiday, the supply will recover faster than the demand, and the market is expected to continue the weak - fluctuation trend [14]. Ferroalloys - For ferrosilicon, it is recommended to hold long positions as the market is in a tight - balance state on a monthly basis. For silicomanganese, it is recommended to wait and see as the market is in a state of monthly surplus [15]. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see for now. For soda ash, focus on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new production capacity. For glass, pay attention to the actual changes in production lines and the subsequent demand [16]. Non - ferrous and New Materials Copper - Affected by geopolitical conflicts, copper prices may rise with precious metals in the short term but will return to their own logic later, with a wide - range fluctuation [17]. Zinc - The domestic zinc inventory has increased. It is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to maintain the previous bearish view [19]. Lead - The social inventory of lead has increased, but consumption is expected to improve in March. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [21]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, the price is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, as supply disturbances increase the expectation of tight raw materials, and demand is improving [23]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate in a wide range. It is recommended to operate within the range for both [25]. Agricultural Products Cotton - The domestic cotton market is expected to be bullish, with attention paid to post - holiday demand and geopolitical impacts [27]. Sugar - The sugar market is in a state of short - term supply surplus, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply surplus has been adjusted downward [28]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise slightly in March, but the futures price may enter a shock pattern. The far - month contracts are under pressure [30]. Apples - High - quality apple sources are expected to be strong, and the futures price may be bullish [32]. Corn - It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices, and a 5 - 7 reverse spread can be considered. Corn faces short - term pressure but is supported by low inventory [33]. Red Dates - The red date market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with attention paid to sales and inventory [34]. Pigs - In March, the pig market is expected to be in a state of strong supply and weak demand, and it is not recommended to short the near - month futures [35]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The short - term market is dominated by geopolitical factors. The price may rise, but the increase is limited. The market has high uncertainty [37]. Fuel Oil - The short - term trading focus is the impact of geopolitical - led oil prices on fuel oil, which is currently bullish [39]. Plastics - Polyolefins have high supply pressure but are supported by rising raw material prices. It is necessary to guard against the risk of a rebound [41]. Synthetic Rubber - It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading, and the price may continue to decline in the short term [42]. Methanol - The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the situation in the Middle East on Iran's methanol supply. It is recommended to have a bullish - shock view [43]. Caustic Soda - The caustic soda market is expected to fluctuate weakly. Pay attention to the supply - demand relationship and the impact of warehouse receipts [44]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow oil prices, with a smaller increase. Pay attention to post - winter - storage replenishment demand [45]. PVC - PVC may be bullish in the short term but has not improved in terms of core supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to be cautious and operate in a range [46]. Polyester Industry Chain - In the short term, the polyester industry chain is under supply - demand pressure. It is recommended to buy on dips and consider a positive spread for PX or PTA 5 - 9 contracts [47]. Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - The future supply of LPG is abundant, and the price is difficult to stay high. It is recommended to wait and see due to increased volatility [48]. Pulp - The port inventory of pulp has reached a new high, and the market sentiment has declined. Pay attention to inventory changes and price increases of finished products [50]. Logs - The forward spot price of logs is supported by cost. Pay attention to the impact of new delivery rules and the resumption of work in processing plants [51]. Urea - It is recommended to short on rallies in the urea futures market. The spot price has increased slightly, and the demand has weakened [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference will be held in Beijing on March 4, 2026. Shanghai has issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions, adjusting the social insurance or individual income tax payment period for non - local residents or single adults to buy housing within the outer ring to 1 year or more before the purchase date [2]. - Last week, the production of rebar was 165,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons month - on - month; the apparent demand was 81,000 tons, an increase of 39,000 tons; the factory inventory was 233,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons; the social inventory was 568,000 tons, an increase of 73,000 tons; the total inventory was 801,000 tons, an increase of 85,000 tons. The production of hot - rolled coils was 310,000 tons, remaining the same month - on - month; the factory inventory was 95,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons; the social inventory was 357,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons; the total inventory was 452,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons; the apparent demand was 291,000 tons, an increase of 45,000 tons [2][6]. - Overall, last week's industrial data of the steel industry was average. The steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [2][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (lots) | Total Open Interest (lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3067 | 12 | 0.39 | 3706677 | 2580465 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3215 | - 7 | - 0.22 | 1494469 | 1492800 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 750.5 | 4.5 | 0.60 | 863039 | 540573 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1093.5 | - 27.5 | - 2.45 | 3008084 | 721319 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1635.5 | - 46.5 | - 2.76 | 70334 | 42455 | Yuan/ton | [3] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures rebounded with fluctuations. The new housing policy in Shanghai boosted market sentiment. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2910 (+10) Yuan/ton, the price of Shanghai rebar was 3200 (-20) Yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3240 (0) Yuan/ton [5]. - The macro situation includes the upcoming 4th Session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, the announcement of the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" for housing purchase restrictions [5]. - The industrial situation shows that the steel production decreased month - on - month, the post - holiday resumption of production was slow, the apparent demand recovered steadily, and the inventory continued to accumulate. It is expected that the post - holiday inventory inflection point will appear in about four weeks. With the approaching of the Two Sessions, the supply in the north is kept at a low level due to production restrictions, and the demand is expected to continue to rise. Supported by short - term expectations, the steel price is expected to stabilize with fluctuations [6]. 3.3 Industry News - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce is closely monitoring and will comprehensively evaluate the US tariff adjustment measures, and will decide on counter - measures against the US fentanyl - related tariffs and reciprocal tariffs. China is willing to have frank consultations with the US in the 6th round of China - US economic and trade consultations [7][8]. - On February 25, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises meeting the "Steel Industry Specification Conditions (2025 Edition)" [11]. - Some steel enterprises in North China have received a notice of temporary voluntary emission reduction, requiring them to implement phased emission reduction control from March 4 to March 11, with the blast furnace load voluntarily reduced by no less than 30% [11]. - On February 25, Shanghai issued the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" to further reduce housing purchase restrictions [11]. - In the first month of the implementation of the steel export license policy, the market is experiencing "short - term pain" to seek a balance under the new rules. Affected by the new policy, the steel export volume in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to decline by 15% - 20% compared with 27.42 million tons in the first quarter of 2025 [11]. - On March 1, local time, US President Trump said that the military action against Iran may last about four weeks. The leaders of the UK, France, and Germany issued a joint statement, indicating that they may take "necessary defensive actions" against Iran [11]. 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the futures and monthly spread trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the basis trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the spot regional price difference trends of rebar and hot - rolled coils, the smelting profits of long - process steel mills, the profits of short - process electric furnaces in East China, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide, the daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills, the production, inventory, and apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, and the seasonal charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads and volume - rebar spreads [10][12][14][16][18][20][23][26][28][33][34][36][37][41][43][45]

2026年03月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 螺纹钢：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 热轧卷板：震荡反复 | 2 | | 硅铁：电费成本预期扰动，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 锰硅：海外远期矿价抬升，价格偏强震荡 | 4 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 6 | | 焦煤：仓单扰动叠加能源属性发酵，震荡偏弱 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 3 月 2 日 螺纹钢：震荡反复 热轧卷板：震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,067 | 1 | 0.03 | | 期 货 | HC2605 | 3, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the market may continue to be in a period of oscillation and volatility reduction, suppressing the overall atmosphere. The black sector remains in a weak state and is likely to be short - sold. However, in the medium to long term, commodity bulls are expected to continue [35][42]. - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, such as the US - Israel military strikes on Iran, have become a core driver for short - term price movements in precious metals, crude oil, and other commodities. The development of the situation will significantly impact prices [8][12][14]. - For different industries, specific supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy expectations will affect price trends. For example, in the metals industry, factors like supply disruptions and downstream demand recovery are crucial; in the energy and chemical industry, supply - demand balance and cost changes play important roles; in the agricultural products industry, factors such as production, consumption, and trade policies are key [12][14][78]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between the US and Iran, OPEC's production increase plan, new developments in large - scale models, and the militarization of artificial intelligence are the main factors affecting the stock index [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Amid the US - Iran conflict and the strong appreciation of the RMB exchange rate driving foreign capital inflows, it is recommended to pay attention to domestic two - sessions policy signals and changes in the war situation. The strategy is to buy on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: Military conflicts between Israel and Iran, Trump's plan to negotiate with Iran, and the central bank's reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Inflation recovery may potentially suppress the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not yet stable. The short - term safe - haven sentiment in the market due to the US - Iran conflict is beneficial for the bond market, but the subsequent trend depends on the intensity and duration of the conflict. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to price increases in precious metals. The price trend depends on the development of the war [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The opening prices of gold and silver are expected to gap up. If the war expands, the upward trend may continue; if the situation eases, prices are likely to return to high - level consolidation. A short - term long - position strategy is recommended [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Geopolitical concerns have led to a mixed performance in copper prices. LME and domestic inventories have changed, and the basis has adjusted [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors and supply - side constraints support copper prices. With the improvement of downstream operating rates, the inventory accumulation rate is expected to slow down. Short - term copper prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Geopolitical factors have caused aluminum prices to oscillate. Inventory and basis have changed [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although domestic aluminum ingot inventories are at a relatively high level, they are expected to peak earlier than in previous years. Geopolitical risks increase the supply risk in the Middle East, and aluminum prices are strongly supported but with increased volatility [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic zinc industry is weak. Zinc prices may follow the upward trend of copper and aluminum prices due to relative valuation [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have shown a slight increase. Domestic and foreign inventories and basis have changed [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although lead inventories have increased significantly, the current price is at the lower end of the oscillation range. The narrowing of smelting profits may reduce the surplus of lead ingots. Short - term lead prices are expected to stop falling and gradually recover [16]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have shown a slight decline. Spot prices and cost factors have changed [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In the medium term, nickel prices are expected to rise slowly due to the reduction of RKAB quotas in Indonesia. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate to digest inventory pressure. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [17]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices have risen significantly. Supply - side concerns and demand - side recovery are the main factors [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the market has a strong sentiment to go long on tin prices, the supply - demand situation is marginally loose, and inventories are rising. It is not advisable to blindly chase the high. Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: Lithium carbonate prices have shown a slight decline. Spot and futures prices have changed [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of lithium carbonate has been depleted during the Spring Festival, and the downstream demand is resilient. The short - term supply is expected to be tight. However, if the export ban on lithium concentrate in Zimbabwe is lifted, the impact on domestic supply may be limited. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking rhythm and market sentiment [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: Alumina prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in maintenance and the delay in production start - up have led to a contraction in inventory accumulation. The high - level of warehouse receipts registration due to the premium on the futures market suppresses the upward movement of prices. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply - side pressure has increased due to the arrival of steel mill resources after the festival. Although the market procurement atmosphere has improved, the actual demand from downstream users is still low. Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate upward [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively high, and the demand is expected to improve with the resumption of production after the festival. Short - term prices are expected to rise [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: Steel prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall sentiment in the commodity market is positive, but the transmission of policies to the construction end takes time. The fundamentals of the black sector are weaker than expected before the festival. Steel prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to factors such as construction site resumption rates, policy signals, and supply - side constraints [29]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed. Steel mills have received emission reduction notices during important meetings [30]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas supply has recovered after the end of weather - related impacts, and high inventories suppress price increases. The demand for iron ore is recovering, but the production of molten iron may be affected during important meetings. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [31]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: Coking coal prices have shown a slight increase, and coke prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: After the festival, downstream users are in the active de - stocking stage, and coal production is gradually recovering. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. However, coking coal may have a relatively smooth upward trend in the second half of the year [34][35]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined. Inventory has increased significantly, and the demand is weak [37]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of the glass market is stable, but the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. Glass prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: Soda ash prices are stable. Inventory has increased, and the demand is weak [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of soda ash is relatively stable, and the demand is slow to recover. Soda ash prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [40]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The increase in iron alloy prices is mainly driven by market speculation and policy expectations. In the long term, the commodity market is expected to be bullish, but the short - term market may oscillate. The future trend of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon depends on the overall market sentiment and cost factors [42][43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [44]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply and demand of industrial silicon are expected to increase in March. Prices are expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of large - scale factories in the northwest and downstream demand changes [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: Polysilicon prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to increase in March, but the inventory is still high, and the demand feedback is not good. Polysilicon prices are expected to be under pressure. A wait - and - see strategy is recommended [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Due to the US - Iran conflict, the prices of crude oil and naphtha are expected to rise, driving up the price of butadiene rubber futures. The natural rubber market has both bullish and bearish factors [49]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [52]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have risen, and the inventory of refined oil products has changed [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current oil price has already factored in a high geopolitical premium. It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [54]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The downward momentum of methanol still exists, but the negative factors have weakened. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [56]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The import window for urea has opened, and the fundamentals are expected to be negative. It is recommended to short - sell [59]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and the upward repair space of valuation is narrowing. It is recommended to gradually take profits [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [62]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The domestic market is in a situation of oversupply, and the fundamentals are poor [63][64]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have shown a slight increase. Inventory and basis have changed [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the port inventory is under pressure. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. However, due to geopolitical factors and coal price rebounds, there is a risk of price rebound [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: PTA is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has declined, but there is still room for valuation increase. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX in the medium - term [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have increased. Inventory and basis have changed [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: p - Xylene is currently in a stock - accumulation stage, but it will gradually enter the de - stocking cycle in March. The supply - demand structure of p - Xylene and PTA is relatively strong, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [72]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ "moderate production increase" has led to an oscillating oil price. The PE valuation has room to decline, but the pressure on the disk has been reduced. The demand is expected to rebound after the Spring Festival [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. Inventory and basis have changed [74]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply pressure of PP has been relieved, and the demand is expected to rebound seasonally. The overall inventory pressure may be alleviated. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [76]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have declined. The market is in a situation of oversupply [78]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The near - term pig prices are still bearish after the rebound, while the far - term prices are slightly bullish but with limited upside space. It is recommended to use reverse arbitrage or wait for the price to fall and then buy [79]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are stable. The supply is high, and the demand may increase in the short term but decrease later [80]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of laying hens is large, and the behavior of delaying culling and feather replacement may weaken the medium - term price increase potential. Attention should be paid to the valuation pressure on the far - term disk [81]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: US soybean exports, Brazilian soybean harvest progress, and domestic soybean inventory have changed [82]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rumor of an extended customs clearance time for South American soybeans has driven up the price of soybean meal. The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to increased import costs [83]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The export and production of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia have changed, and the inventory of vegetable oils in China and India has decreased [84]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger than that of palm oil and rapeseed oil. The geopolitical crisis may drive up the oil price. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats is bullish. It is recommended to wait for the price to stop falling at a low level and then buy [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar production in India, Brazil, and Thailand has changed, and the import volume of sugar in China has increased [86]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current raw sugar price is at a historical low, and there is a possibility of reducing the sugar - making ratio in Brazil after April. It is not advisable to be overly bearish. The domestic sugar price may rebound. It is recommended to participate in long positions on dips [87]. Cotton - **Market Information**: US cotton exports, domestic cotton inventory, and global cotton production and consumption have changed [88]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures have increased significantly after the festival. It is recommended to focus on the downstream operating rate in March. If it cooperates, the cotton price still has room to rise. A buy - on - dips strategy is recommended [91].