日度报告——综合晨报 中国 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-05-15 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储副主席：预计经济增长将放缓，通胀或反弹但待观察 美联储官员表态经济稳健，因此不急于降息，美联储官员对于 经济短期看法明显乐观，美元维持震荡。 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 韩国与美国就外汇政策展开对话 美国与中东国家的协议继续支撑科技板块上涨，股指表现分化， 纳指明显强于标普 500 和道琼斯指数。 综 宏观策略（国债期货） 合 4 月金融数据多数不及预期 晨 报 虽然财政正在积极发力，但私人部门仍然缺乏主动投融资意愿。 基本面对债市的影响依然是偏多的。 黑色金属（动力煤） 5 月 14 日北港市场动力煤价格弱势运行 伴随港口集中疏港，煤价下行压力一次性释放。后期来看，根 据天气预估，此轮夏季或再次呈现高温，火电增速有望在夏季 转至同比正增长。需求季节性回转将接替港口降库完成，煤 农产品（豆粕） 美国建议延长生物燃料税收抵免 美国众议院提议延长生物燃料税收抵免至 2031 年底，ANEC 将 巴西 5 月出口预估上调至 1426 万吨。昨日国内豆粕现货稳中有 跌 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core View The report presents the daily arbitrage data of various futures varieties on May 14, 2025, including power coal, energy chemicals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, agricultural products, and stock index futures, aiming to help investors understand the market situation through the analysis of basis, inter - period spread, and inter - variety spread. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Power Coal - **Basis**: On May 13, 2025, the basis was - 182.4 yuan/ton, showing a continuous negative value trend in recent days [2]. 3.2 Energy Chemicals - **Energy Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of INE crude oil, fuel oil, and the ratio of crude oil to asphalt are presented, with the basis of INE crude oil and fuel oil fluctuating in recent days [6]. - **Chemical Commodities** - **Basis**: The basis data of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, LLDPE, PP, etc. are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of natural rubber in recent days [7]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of natural rubber, methanol, PTA, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of natural rubber being - 1045 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of LLDPE - PVC, LLDPE - PP, etc. are presented, with the LLDPE - PVC spread being 2309 yuan/ton on May 13, 2025 [7]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Basis**: The basis data of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are provided, with the basis of rebar showing an upward trend in recent days [12]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of rebar, iron ore, coke, and coking coal are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of rebar being - 69.0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of rebar/iron ore, rebar/coke, etc. are presented, with the rebar/iron ore ratio being 4.31 on May 13, 2025 [12]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals - **Domestic Market** - **Basis**: The domestic basis data of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin are provided, with significant fluctuations in the basis of copper in recent days [20]. - **Import and Export Data**: The LME premium/discount, Shanghai - London ratio, CIF price, domestic spot price, and import profit and loss of various non - ferrous metals are presented, with all non - ferrous metals showing import losses except lead [26]. - **London Market**: The LME basis, Shanghai - London ratio, and import profit and loss data of non - ferrous metals are presented [26]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Basis**: The basis data of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are provided, with the basis of soybeans showing a negative value in recent days [36]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, etc. are given, such as the 5 - 1 month spread of soybeans being 48 yuan/ton [36]. - **Inter - variety Spread**: The inter - variety spreads of soybean/corn, soybean oil/soybean meal, etc. are presented, with the soybean/corn ratio being 1.77 on May 13, 2025 [34]. 3.6 Stock Index Futures - **Basis**: The basis data of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are provided, with the basis of all indices showing positive values on May 13, 2025 [44]. - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 are given, such as the next - month - current - month spread of CSI 300 being - 40.8 [44].

Core Viewpoint - Traditional energy and chemical companies are showcasing their technological innovations and new products at the 27th China Beijing International Science and Technology Industry Expo, highlighting a transformation in the industry through technology and innovation [2][8]. Group 1: Innovations in Catalyst Recycling - Longyuan Environmental Protection Co., Ltd. of the State Energy Group presented its innovative catalyst recycling technology, which transforms waste catalysts into regenerated catalysts, achieving performance comparable to new catalysts [4][5]. - The company has established three bases in Wuxi, Yixing, and Wuhai, focusing on catalyst production and regeneration [2][4]. - The regeneration process involves a modular unpacking and sorting technique, enhancing properties such as low-temperature activity and wear resistance [4]. Group 2: Water Treatment Technology - Longyuan's core products include ultrafiltration and reverse osmosis membranes, which can effectively treat wastewater, achieving a cost reduction of over 20% compared to imported products while meeting international performance standards [4][5]. Group 3: Carbon Capture and Utilization - Longyuan is involved in the national-level CCUS (Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage) research platform, collaborating with 24 entities, including leading companies and research institutions, to develop a comprehensive technology chain for efficient CO2 capture and utilization [5]. Group 4: Innovations in Lithium and Potassium Extraction - China Minmetals Corporation showcased a model for lithium and potassium extraction from Qinghai salt lakes, demonstrating a comprehensive innovation system for resource development [6]. - The project employs solid potassium ore dissolution technology for efficient extraction of low-grade resources and aims to establish the largest potassium fertilizer base in China [6]. Group 5: Smart Safety Management in Chemical Industry - Beijing Chemical Group introduced a smart safety management system, including smart helmets and gas detection devices, to enhance safety in hazardous chemical operations [7]. - The smart helmet integrates multiple functions such as real-time communication, life sign monitoring, and gas detection, significantly improving safety management in traditional industries [7]. Group 6: Future Outlook - The innovations presented at the expo indicate a significant shift in traditional energy and chemical companies towards sustainable development and the achievement of carbon neutrality goals [8].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the mandatory national energy consumption limits standards, effective from May 1, 2024, is expected to drive structural investment opportunities across various industries, including petrochemicals, coal, mining, and paper [1][2]. Steel Industry - The new energy consumption limits are projected to yield an annual energy savings of 24.52 million tons of standard coal [2]. - The standards will facilitate the elimination of outdated production capacity and enhance energy efficiency through technological upgrades and process optimization [2][3]. - The implementation is anticipated to raise the investment threshold for new capacity, leading to a long-term increase in steel production costs [3]. - The steel industry is currently facing oversupply and weak demand, making supply-side structural reforms essential for healthy development [3]. Building Materials Industry - Recent government policies aim to regulate capacity, promote green transformation, and enhance technological upgrades in the flat glass industry [4]. - The new standards will positively impact the energy-saving and carbon-reduction efforts in the glass and cement sectors, fostering a healthy development cycle [4][5]. Energy and Chemical Industry - The new energy consumption limits are a necessary response to past capacity expansions and the dual carbon goals [6]. - The standards will compel companies to accelerate technological upgrades and increase investments in energy-saving technologies, with expected investments exceeding 100 billion yuan [8]. - The implementation is expected to lead to a significant reduction in outdated capacity, with a projected decrease of 10 million tons in refining capacity by 2025 [8]. Nonferrous Metals Industry - The energy consumption limits are seen as a critical measure for promoting the green transformation and upgrading of the nonferrous metals industry [10]. - The implementation will accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity, particularly in high-energy-consuming small smelting plants [10]. - The copper market is expected to face downward pressure due to tightening supply and increased environmental regulations [10][11]. Coal Industry - The energy consumption limits are expected to result in an annual energy savings of 24.52 million tons of standard coal, promoting better energy management across industries [12]. - The short-term impact on coal supply and demand is limited, but long-term effects will include the elimination of outdated capacity and the modernization of production techniques [12].

Group 1 - The application recognition work for the concept verification centers and pilot test bases in Shaanxi Province has been initiated, aiming to accelerate the industrialization of scientific and technological achievements by establishing high-level centers and bases [1][2] - By the end of 2026, Shaanxi plans to cultivate and recognize 60 concept verification centers and pilot test bases, conduct 500 concept verifications, 500 pilot test services, promote 300 new products to market, and incubate 200 technology-based enterprises [1] - The provincial government will provide funding support after a thorough review process involving third-party organizations and expert evaluations [1] Group 2 - Shaanxi supports the establishment of concept verification centers led by universities and enterprises in new fields such as photonics, hydrogen energy, energy storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, intelligent connected vehicles, and third-generation semiconductors [2] - The province encourages leading technology enterprises to establish pilot test bases focusing on secondary development experiments or trial production in advantageous industries like energy and chemicals, aerospace, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, and new materials [2]

Core Logic - The supply-demand balance of commodities is fundamental, with cost valuation serving as a strong support when there is a clear oversupply, while it becomes a mere reference when there is a significant shortage [1] - The analysis focuses on representative varieties from non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy chemicals, assessing their performance over the next 3-5 years based on the surplus ratio [2][4] Historical & Future Analysis - Over the past 3-10 years, only copper has consistently shown a shortage, with projections indicating that copper and zinc will be in short supply by 2025, particularly copper [4] - For the next 3-5 years, copper remains the best long-term investment, followed by aluminum and zinc [4] Cost Valuation Overview - The article provides a detailed table of historical and projected balance estimates for various metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, nickel, iron ore, and crude oil, indicating whether cost valuation is considered [6] - The cash cost structure of copper mining is closely linked to crude oil prices, with significant components including materials, labor, fuel, and electricity [11][19] Copper Market Insights - The cash cost of copper mining is expected to rise slightly, influenced by oil price fluctuations and mining efficiency [15][21] - The current supply of copper cannot meet the demand for electrolytic copper, suggesting that copper prices will not enter a cost-based pricing phase unless a global recession occurs [20][22] Aluminum Market Outlook - The aluminum market is expected to experience an expanding supply-demand gap, with domestic production capacity constraints and increasing demand driven by electrification [24][30] Lead-Zinc Market Dynamics - The cash costs of lead-zinc mining are driven by GDP growth and energy prices, with labor and consumables being significant cost components [31][32] - The cash cost structure indicates that zinc prices are closely aligned with cash costs, providing a solid support level [37][42] Tin Market Analysis - The cost structure of tin mining is complex, with mining costs, energy costs, and compliance costs significantly impacting overall expenses [44][50] - The global tin mining cost center is expected to rise due to declining ore grades and increasing energy and labor costs [47][51] Nickel Market Projections - Nickel is projected to remain in a surplus state for the next few years, with cost valuation becoming more significant post-2026 as production growth slows [52][57] Iron Ore and Crude Oil Cost Structures - The cost structure of iron ore mining varies significantly by region, with Australian and Brazilian operations generally having lower costs compared to Chinese operations [61][66] - Crude oil extraction costs are influenced by geological conditions and regional policies, with significant variations across different countries [78][80]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan has been designated as a "strategic hinterland," which is expected to attract significant investment and policy support, enhancing its economic development potential [4][6][7]. Economic Performance - In the first three months of the year, Sichuan's GDP exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, with high-tech industries growing by 14.3%, particularly in industrial robots, smartphones, electronic communications, and automotive manufacturing, all exceeding 20% growth [4][10][20]. - Foreign investment in Chengdu surged by 74.04%, indicating strong confidence from international investors [4]. Strategic Importance - The designation of "strategic hinterland" is crucial as it determines a province's development direction and potential, influencing national investment and support [6][7]. - Sichuan's geographical advantages include being a natural fortress, historically serving as a refuge during conflicts, which enhances its strategic value [7][8][15]. Agricultural and Energy Strength - Sichuan ranks first in several agricultural metrics: total grain output at 726.8 billion jin, live pig output at 61.496 million heads, and rapeseed production at 7.44 billion jin [10]. - The province is a major energy supplier, with natural gas production at 65.66 billion cubic meters, ranking first nationally, and hydropower generation at 381.4 billion kilowatt-hours, also the highest in the country [10][11]. Industrial Capabilities - Sichuan boasts 41 complete industrial categories, with six key industries: electronic information, equipment manufacturing, food and textiles, energy and chemicals, advanced materials, and pharmaceutical health [11][12]. - The electronic information industry alone is valued at nearly 2 trillion yuan, positioning Sichuan among the top ten global electronic information industry bases [11]. Research and Development - Mianyang is recognized as a "science and technology city," housing numerous national research institutions and achieving a research and development intensity of 5.26% in 2024, surpassing many coastal cities [13][14]. - Companies like Changhong and Jiuzhou are leading in various sectors, contributing to Sichuan's reputation as a hub for innovation and advanced manufacturing [14][15]. Infrastructure and Investment Environment - Sichuan has invested over 200 billion yuan annually in transportation infrastructure, with ongoing projects like the Chengdu-Chongqing high-speed rail expected to significantly reduce travel time [19][20]. - The provincial government has implemented policies to enhance the business environment, including rapid project approval processes and substantial tax reductions, totaling over 88 billion yuan in 2024 [20].

广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 13 日星期二 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z00 ...

运筹帷幄 决胜千里 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 13 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/12 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/09 | -171.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/08 | -166.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/07 | -161.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/06 | -153.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 450 550 650 750 850 950 1050 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 杭州市求是路 ...

新华财经北京5月12日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场5月12日涨多跌少，其中集运欧线主力合 约收涨16.00%；苯乙烯主力合约涨超4%；BR橡胶、对二甲苯、铁矿石、PTA主力合约涨超3%；SC原 油、短纤、烧碱、高硫燃油、多晶硅、棉花、原木、NR、瓶片、天然橡胶、沪镍主力合约涨超2%。下 跌品种方面，沪金主力合约跌超2%。 宏观情绪改善商品大面积回暖 集运指数强势涨停 宏观情绪转暖为12日当天商品市场带来积极影响，国内主要商品大面积收高，尤其是集运指数（欧线） 期货收盘强势封板涨停，以16%的涨幅领涨商品市场。虽然上周五和本周一公布的现货运价指数均环比 小幅下跌，但周末贸易局势方面的积极消息带来的利多仍占据主导，这使得集运市场多头情绪高涨。与 此同时，有业内消息称，达飞轮船等航司6月初在线报价有小幅提振，也为日内集运欧线市场的活跃表 现提供助力。不过，分析机构提示，即期运价市场上，部分航司揽货压力下调降5月中下旬运价，加上 地缘局势也存在缓和可能，集运欧线基本面仍整体偏空，这或给运价反弹带来压力。 除航运市场对贸易局势最新变化反映积极以外，能源化工等商品也表现活跃。截至12日收盘，原油、燃 料油均录得超 ...