Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished steel products showing a volatile and upward trend. The "anti - involution and capacity reduction" proposal and the expected production restrictions in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region have pushed up the prices of steel products. However, the actual implementation of these policies needs further verification. The static fundamentals of steel have no obvious contradictions, and future attention should be paid to policy trends, terminal demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The price of iron ore is in a wide - range volatile state in the short term. The supply of iron ore has decreased, and the demand has also declined due to factors such as seasonal maintenance of blast furnaces and production cuts by some steel mills. The impact of macro - expectations on the market has increased, and attention should be paid to the interference of production restrictions in Tangshan and the reduction of pellet production expectations by Vale [6]. - For manganese silicon and silicon iron, the prices are expected to maintain a volatile or slightly rebound state in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are still uncertainties. Enterprises with hedging profit margins are recommended to conduct appropriate hedging operations [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon is still in a downward trend. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but the comparison with the 2015 supply - side reform is questionable. Short - term speculative short positions are recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - For glass, the policy expectation has a strong impact on the price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait. For soda ash, the supply is still abundant, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the sustainability of the rebound is limited [15][17]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3076 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton (0.358%) from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai remained flat. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3208 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (0.532%) from the previous trading day. The spot price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained flat [2]. - **Fundamentals**: This week, the apparent supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory depletion speed slowed down. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly increased, the demand declined, and the inventory slightly accumulated, but it was still at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The main contract of iron ore (I2509) closed at 733.00 yuan/ton, up 1.45% (+10.50). The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 725 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 35.46 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.61% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output decreased, and the terminal demand was neutral. The port inventory changed little, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.24% at 5712 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was at a premium to the futures. The main contract of silicon iron (SF509) closed down 0.85% at 5390 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was also at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The prices are expected to be volatile or slightly rebound in the short term. The market is optimistic about the "capacity reduction" policy, but there are uncertainties [9][10]. Industrial Silicon - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On July 3, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2509) closed down 2.44% at 8010 yuan/ton. The spot prices of 553 and 421 in East China increased, and both were at a premium to the futures [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend. The market's optimism about the "capacity reduction" policy needs further verification [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price in Shahe increased by 21 yuan, and that in Central China remained flat. The national inventory decreased slightly. The policy expectation pushed up the futures price, and short positions are recommended to avoid and wait [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price decreased by 20 yuan. The domestic inventory increased by 2.30%. The demand continued to decline, and the supply was still abundant. It is expected to rebound following glass, but the rebound sustainability is limited [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - The price of soda ash is experiencing a significant decline, with the average market price in North China dropping by 8.0% in Q2 2025, reaching 1483 RMB/ton, and a cumulative decline of 50.2% since the beginning of 2024 [1] Price Trends - Since the beginning of 2024, soda ash prices have entered a downward trend, with the average market price in North China at 1370 RMB/ton by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 50.2% decrease from early 2024 [1] - In Q2 2025, the average price in North China was 1483 RMB/ton, down 8.0% from Q1 [1] - Coal prices have also declined, with the average price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port being 632 RMB/ton in Q2, a 12.4% decrease from Q1 [1] Profitability of Production Processes - The decline in soda ash prices has led to some production processes entering a state of reduced profitability. The dynamic gross profit margins for the main production methods as of June 2025 are approximately 415 RMB/ton for natural soda ash, -54 RMB/ton for the ammonia soda process, and -152 RMB/ton for the soda ash process [2] - In Q2 2025, the average gross profit margins for these processes were 516 RMB/ton, 15 RMB/ton, and -66 RMB/ton, respectively, indicating a significant squeeze on profitability [2] Industry Capacity and Expansion - The domestic effective capacity for soda ash in 2024 is projected to be around 39.7 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons or 4.7% year-on-year [3] - New capacity additions are still expected in 2025, including the completion of a 600,000-ton ammonia soda expansion project by Jiangsu Debang and the relocation and upgrade of a 1.1 million-ton ammonia soda facility by Lianyungang Soda Industry [3] Structural Changes in the Industry - By the end of 2024, the capacity shares for natural soda ash, ammonia soda, and soda ash processes are expected to be 15%, 49%, and 36%, respectively, with natural soda ash's share significantly increasing from 4.6% at the end of 2022 [4] - The increase in natural soda ash and ammonia soda capacity, combined with declining soda ash prices, may lead to the marginalization of some smaller ammonia soda capacities [4] - Recent policy measures emphasize the regulation of low-price competition, which may accelerate the exit of outdated capacities and promote structural adjustments within the soda ash industry [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-07-03 供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐⼭减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进⼀步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上⾏。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前⿊⾊基本⾯处于相对均衡状态，各环节⽭盾均 不明显，铁⽔维持⾼位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 ⿊⾊：供给扰动升温，⿊⾊⼤幅反弹 继唐山减排要求趋严后，"反内卷"进一步强化供给减量预期，乐观 情绪主导市场，现货和期货共振上行。与此同时，炉料也表现强势， 形成正反馈驱动。此前黑色基本面处于相对均衡状态，各环节矛盾均 不明显，铁水维持高位，钢材保持低库存，因此反弹较为顺畅。此次 利好预计能刺激贸易商等中游环节补库，提升现货流动性。后续则需 要关注政策具体落实情况以及淡季终端需求，预计整体维持偏强状态 但涨势放缓。 1、铁元素方面，小样本钢企铁水微降，短期无大幅下行驱动。到港 环比下降叠加需求高位，港口 ...

Group 1: Energy - Brent 09 contract rose 2.78%. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East around the Iran nuclear issue have heated up again, and the trade war risk has weakened. The theme of loose supply and demand in the crude oil market continues, and the supply - demand guidance is still negative [1] - Night - time oil prices rose 3% due to positive news of US - Vietnam tariffs. High - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is in a weak oscillation, while low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) is boosted in the short term [21] - Night - time oil prices rose 3%, and asphalt is expected to follow the upward trend. Supply and demand are expected to increase, and the de - stocking trend is expected to continue [22] - The 7 - month CP of liquefied petroleum gas was significantly lowered, and the market is in a weak oscillation [23] Group 2: Metals - Overnight, the international copper price led the rise at a high level. The market is trading the probability of a July interest rate cut. Short - term Shanghai copper's upward trend tests 81,000, and long - term high - level short - allocation is recommended [3] - Overnight, Shanghai aluminum oscillated at a high level. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased slightly, and there is a risk of a phased correction [4] - Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum. If the spread between the far - month contracts on the disk expands, consider a long - ADC12 and short - AL strategy [5] - The spot price of alumina is around 3,100 yuan, and the upward space is limited [6] - Overnight, the precious metals oscillated strongly. The market's expectation of an interest rate cut has increased, and attention is focused on the non - farm payrolls data [2] - Zinc has strong support at 22,000 yuan/ton in the short term, and a short - allocation strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [7] - Shanghai lead is consolidating above 17,000. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and attention is paid to whether it can stand firm at 17,000 [8] - Shanghai nickel is oscillating at a high level in the rebound. Technically, it is at the end of the rebound, waiting for a short - selling opportunity [9] - Tin prices oscillated overnight. It is advisable to short - allocate the far - month contracts [10] Group 3: Building Materials and Chemicals - Multi - silicon futures' main contract rose to the daily limit. The short - term upward space depends on the implementation of supply - side regulation policies [12] - Industrial silicon futures prices rose strongly. Due to the interweaving of long and short themes, the market is expected to oscillate [13] - Night - time steel prices oscillated. Supply and demand in the steel market are both increasing, and the short - term is expected to remain strong [14] - Iron ore prices rose overnight. Supply is expected to decline, and the short - term trend is expected to follow the finished products and oscillate strongly [15] - Coke prices rose. There is an expectation of a price increase, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [16] - Coking coal prices rose. Policy may reduce production, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [17] - Manganese silicon prices rose. The inventory has decreased, but the upward pressure above 6,750 is large [18] - Silicon iron prices rose. Demand is okay, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly [19] - Polyvinyl chloride (PVC) is following the cost fluctuations in the short term and may oscillate at a low level in the long term. Caustic soda is strong in the short term but under pressure in the long term [28] - PX and PTA prices are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand pattern may gradually become looser [29] - Ethylene glycol is continuing a small - scale rebound and is expected to oscillate at the bottom [30] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA reports on soybeans are neutral. Domestic soybean meal is in a weak oscillation [35] - Soybean oil and palm oil prices rose. A long - allocation strategy on dips is recommended in the long term [36] - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. Domestic rapeseed products are expected to oscillate in the short term [37] - The price of domestic soybeans rebounded from a low level. Weather and policies need to be focused on in the short term [38] - Corn futures are in an oscillating trend. The supply rhythm affects the market [39] - Hog futures rose significantly. The rebound space is limited in the medium term, and policy support is expected in the long term [40] - Egg futures fell. Short - selling on rallies is recommended [41] - U.S. cotton prices rose. Domestic cotton inventory is expected to be tight, and buying on dips is recommended [42] - U.S. sugar is in a downward trend, and domestic sugar is expected to oscillate [43] - Apple futures are oscillating, and a short - selling strategy is recommended [44] - Wood futures are oscillating. Supply has some positive factors, but the price is still weak [45] - Pulp futures rose slightly. The inventory is still high year - on - year, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [46] Group 5: Others - The freight rate of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to be stable in July. The progress of the Gaza negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [20] - Urea market supply and demand have improved marginally, and the short - term market is in a strong oscillation [24] - Methanol futures are expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [25] - Styrene prices are in a weak trend. Supply and demand support is insufficient [26] - Polypropylene and polyethylene are in a weak fundamental situation [27] - Glass futures rose significantly, but it is recommended to wait and see due to high inventory and weak demand [32] - Natural rubber supply is increasing, and inventories are rising. A rebound from an oversold position is possible [33] - Soda ash is strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited due to expected demand reduction [34] Group 6: Financial Markets - A - share market is in a weak oscillation. In the style configuration, technology and growth should be increased on the basis of dividend assets [47] - Treasury bond futures closed up across the board. Be aware of the risk of increased volatility in the short term [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market rebounded yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a volatile upward trend. Rumors of strict production - restriction measures in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region led to a significant increase in futures prices, especially in the steel market. The static fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, but attention should be paid to policy trends, actual demand recovery, and cost support [3]. - The prices of iron ore, manganese - silicon, silicon - iron, industrial silicon, glass, and soda ash were all affected by the policy statement of "promoting the orderly exit of backward production capacity". The market sentiment was optimistic, but there are still uncertainties regarding whether over - capacity means backward capacity and how to solve the problem of insufficient downstream demand [6][10][13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Price and Position**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3065 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton (2.064%) from the previous trading day. The hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3191 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton (1.753%). The positions of both increased [2]. - **Fundamentals**: Rebar's apparent demand was basically the same as last week, and the inventory reduction slowed due to increased production. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly, and inventory accumulated slightly [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position**: The main contract (I2509) closed at 722.50 yuan/ton, up 1.98% (14.00). The position decreased by 6979 hands to 64.79 million hands [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The latest iron ore shipments decreased, and the near - end arrivals also declined. The daily average pig iron output was 242.29 million tons. The terminal demand of five major steel products decreased slightly. Port inventory and port clearance increased, while steel mill inventory decreased slightly. The iron ore price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. Manganese - Silicon and Silicon - Iron - **Price**: The manganese - silicon main contract (SM509) rose 1.99% to 5726 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron main contract (SF509) rose 3.15% to 5436 yuan/ton [8]. - **Market Outlook**: The market is optimistic due to policy expectations. However, caution is needed for long - position follow - up, and short - position speculation should be on the sidelines. Enterprises with hedging profit margins can consider appropriate hedging [10]. Industrial Silicon - **Price**: The industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2509) rose 5.73% to 8210 yuan/ton. The spot price also increased [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The price is still in a downward trend since November 2024. Although it showed strength, it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the downward trend line. Similar to other commodities, there are uncertainties in the market, and hedging can be considered for enterprises with profit margins [12][13]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased. The short - position should avoid and wait and see due to policy - driven price rebounds [15]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased, and the inventory increased slightly. The demand continued to decline, but the supply - demand margin improved slightly. It is expected to rebound following the glass [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the prices of soda ash and glass have rebounded due to policy stimulus, but the supply - demand contradictions in the fundamentals remain. The soda ash market is in an overall surplus situation, with supply declining, weak downstream demand, and further inventory accumulation. The long - term outlook is bearish. For glass, the demand is affected by seasonal factors, supply is increasing, and inventory pressure is rising. Attention should be paid to the implementation of industry production - restriction policies [8][9][10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash, Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Review** - On July 2, the main soda ash futures contract SA509 rebounded significantly, closing at 1205 yuan/ton, up 3.07% or 36 yuan/ton, with a daily reduction of 180,882 lots. The supply and demand of soda ash both decreased, and inventory accumulation continued. In the week of June 26, China's weekly soda ash production dropped to 716,700 tons, a 5.04% week - on - week decrease, and the capacity utilization rate fell to 82.21%, a 4.36% week - on - week decrease. The consumption and inventory showed a downward and upward trend respectively. The market rebounded due to the policy expectation of capacity clearance and production restriction [7][8] - The overall surplus pattern of soda ash suppresses prices. The demand from the real estate and photovoltaic industries is still declining, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. In the short - term, beware of the risk of price correction, and take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [9] - **Glass Market Review** - The demand for glass is significantly affected by seasonal factors. During the traditional rainy season, the terminal demand for glass is weakening. The supply of float glass has increased due to the restart of Shandong Jinjing Technology Co., Ltd.'s Zibo No. 5 line, leading to greater inventory pressure. The mid - stream inventory in the industry is at a high level, and the process of capacity reduction is slow. The glass price rebounded due to policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production - restriction policies [10] 3.2 Data Overview - The report presents the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, the weekly production and enterprise inventory of soda ash, the market price of heavy soda ash in Central China, and the production of flat glass, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [12][13][16]

Group 1 - Current soda ash prices are below the production costs of most companies and significantly discounted in the spot market, but the supply-demand imbalance remains unchanged, leading to limited sustainability in price rebounds [1][3] - The soda ash market is currently characterized by oversupply, with production capacity remaining stable and a high operating rate of around 85% in June, despite some companies undergoing maintenance [1][2] - The float glass industry, a key downstream sector, is experiencing weak demand and increasing losses, which may lead to a further decline in soda ash demand if no policy stimulus occurs [2][3] Group 2 - Recent data indicates that the price of soda ash is between 950 to 970 yuan per ton, with delivery costs estimated at 1230 to 1250 yuan per ton, suggesting a potential for arbitrage if spot prices do not rise significantly [3] - The light soda ash demand remains weak, with downstream companies maintaining low operating rates and poor stocking intentions, indicating a lack of recovery in demand [2][3] - The overall market sentiment is pessimistic, with a notable decline in the photovoltaic glass market, further contributing to the pressure on soda ash demand [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation", and the ratings for various varieties are also mainly "oscillation" [8][10][11] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical conflict disturbances have weakened, and the focus of black commodity trading has shifted to the domestic market. During the off - season, hot metal production has increased. Against the backdrop of low valuations, furnace materials have rebounded from oversold levels. However, the construction and manufacturing industries in China have entered the off - season, and steel demand and inventory are gradually under pressure. Tangshan's emission reduction has a short - term impact on supply, with limited overall influence, and prices have re - entered an oscillatory state [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overall Market Situation - Tangshan's stricter emission reduction requirements have led to a weakening of furnace materials and a strengthening of steel prices. The impact on hot metal needs continuous observation. The market is cautious, especially as steel is in the off - season with signs of weakening demand, so the unilateral increase in prices is small. Coking coal and coke have declined more than iron ore due to the resumption of coal mines and emission reduction [1][2] 3.2 Iron Ore - Supply: This week, the shipments from overseas mines and the arrivals at 45 ports have decreased month - on - month, with less pressure on the supply side. Although there is an expectation of a small - scale inventory build - up in the coming weeks due to previous shipments from overseas mines, the amplitude is limited [3][10][11] - Demand: Steel mills' profitability remains high, and there is no driving force for hot metal to reduce production due to profit reasons. However, Tangshan's emission reduction may affect short - term ore demand, but its impact on medium - and long - term iron ore demand is small [3][10][11] 3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking Coal: Affected by the resumption of coal mines, the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the third quarter, and Tangshan's emission reduction news, the market was weak. The supply recovery is slow, demand is expected to decline, and there is still pressure on mine - end inventory reduction, with limited upward price drivers [3][14] - Coke: The spot market sentiment has improved, and inventory has been further reduced. However, affected by supply - demand rumors, the market oscillated weakly. Supply has decreased slightly, and there is a risk of a decline in short - term hot metal production, so the upward price space is limited [13] 3.4 Alloys - Manganese Silicon: The price increase of port ore is limited. Supply is expected to increase, and demand may decrease. The supply - demand gap is narrowing, and prices are expected to oscillate [4][7] - Ferrosilicon: The current supply - demand relationship is healthy, but there is a possibility of supply - demand gap narrowing in the future. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [7] 3.5 Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Off - season demand is declining, supply pressure exists, and the market is affected by sentiment, with prices expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes, cold - repair conditions, and demand sustainability [7][15] - Soda Ash: The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate, and in the long term, the price center will decline [7][15][17] 3.6 Steel - Affected by Tangshan's emission reduction news, steel prices rose at the end of the session. Supply has positive factors, but demand is under off - season pressure. Overall supply and demand have weakened month - on - month, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-7-2 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修零星启动，供给仍处高位；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终端需求一 般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1165元/吨，基差为25元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存176.69万吨，较前一周增加2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大幅扩张，今 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short term, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved, with high supply, limited improvement in terminal demand, and high inventory [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance has started sporadically, supply remains high; the daily melting volume of downstream float and photovoltaic glass is stable, terminal demand is average, and soda ash factory inventory has declined but is still at a historical high, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2509 is 1,181 yuan/ton, the basis is 29 yuan, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7669 million tons, an increase of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is neutral [2]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Due to the strong supply and weak demand in the soda ash fundamentals, it is expected to mainly operate in a low - level oscillation in the short term [2]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Soda Ash - **Bullish Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry's output at a historical high; the cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume continues to decrease, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures Market | Day Session | Main Contract Closing Price | Low - end Price of Heavy - Quality Soda Ash in Shahe | Main Basis | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,196 yuan/ton | 1,223 yuan/ton | 27 yuan | | Current Value | 1,181 yuan/ton | 1,210 yuan/ton | 29 yuan | | Change Rate | - 1.25% | - 1.06% | 7.41% | [6] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of the heavy - quality soda ash market in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of the heavy - alkali combined - alkali method in East China is - 42 yuan/ton, and the profit of the heavy - alkali ammonia - alkali method in North China is - 88.80 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 82.21%, and the operating rate is expected to decline seasonally. The weekly output of soda ash is 716,800 tons, including 392,100 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, with the output at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there have been significant increases in new soda ash production capacity. In 2023, the new production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with the actual production - launch of 1 million tons [21]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 94.39% [24]. - **Float Glass**: The national daily melting volume of float glass is 156,800 tons, and the operating rate of 75.15% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [27]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [30]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7669 million tons, including 961,700 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the inventory is at a historical high for the same period [33]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective production capacity, output, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, production capacity growth rate, output growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34].