智通财经APP获悉，国盛证券发布研报称，今年上半年黑色金属冶炼和压延加工业利润已经出现可喜的 转变，达到462.8亿元，同比增长13.7倍，增速为全部31个工业大类最高。黑色金属需求并不悲观，如果 下半年"反内卷"政策有效落地，将加快行业盈利回归的进程。期待本次钢厂反内卷政策能尽快切实转化 为行动上的压产。标的上，对于钢铁股依然认为目前处于低估状态。此前以重置价值测算行业部分公司 处于价值低估区，具备非常强的安全边际，行业未来存在修复的机会。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 本周市场冲高后调整，"反内卷"相关行业股票冲高后回落，商品市场黑色系原料以焦煤为代表，价格波 动加大。商品市场六月份初反弹始于上半年经济强现实弱预期造成的库存周期偏转，并于7月份获得"反 内卷"政策预期加持，商品市场价格上涨本身就会"创造"需求，投机需求扩大会放大商品的价格波动， 最终价格变成了市场最大的"基本面"，随后进入调整期。 历史上黑色商品极端行情月度波动更多来自于产业投机，行情发展往往都近似正弦曲线式螺旋前进。对 于股票这类长久期资产需要跳出短期价格波动以中周期产能周期为线索，前反复阐述过过去几年冶炼业 资本回报的长期低迷本身就是供给调 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the steel sector, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for their performance [3][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with demand entering a seasonal lull. The political bureau meeting emphasized "anti-involution" and the need for orderly competition in key industries, shifting focus from price increases to rational competition and profit improvement [3][4]. - Short-term steel demand is expected to decline seasonally, leading to potential price corrections. However, long-term capacity governance remains a key theme, with expectations for improved profitability in steel companies as supply dynamics optimize [3][4]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in steel production and inventory levels, with total steel production rising to 8.67 million tons, while social inventory increased by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons [2][3]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 1, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3,350 CNY/ton (down 100 CNY), hot-rolled steel at 3,430 CNY/ton (down 120 CNY), and cold-rolled steel at 3,860 CNY/ton (down 40 CNY) [1][10][11]. Production and Inventory - Total production of five major steel products reached 8.67 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 9,000 tons to 2.11 million tons. Social inventory rose by 153,400 tons to 9.41 million tons, indicating a mixed inventory situation [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profitability showed fluctuations, with long-process rebar and hot-rolled steel margins changing by +20 CNY/ton and -14 CNY/ton respectively. Short-process electric arc furnace steel margins increased by +38 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector, among others [3][4].

Group 1 - In May 2025, China's steel bar exports reached 1.8 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 53.5% [1] - The export value for the same period was $992 million, which is a year-on-year growth of 27.5% [1] - The data is sourced from China Customs and organized by Zhiyan Consulting [3]

"你必须有诚实的报告！" 当地时间8月1日，美国总统特朗普的一则解雇令震惊华府——他以"伪造就业数据"为由，罢免了拜登任 命的劳工统计局局长埃里卡·麦肯塔弗。导火索是最新公布的7月非农就业仅增7.3万人，远低于预期，且 前两月数据被"暴力"下修25.8万个岗位。 一、非农数据暴跌，特朗普不认 最新非农报告堪称"年内最差"：7月新增就业仅7.3万人，失业率升至4.2%，前值更是被大幅修正——5 月从14.4万砍到1.9万，6月从14.7万砍到1.4万，两个月合计"蒸发"25.8万个岗位。这组数据直接打脸特 朗普此前"经济蓬勃发展"的表态，也让他将矛头直指劳工统计局局长麦肯塔弗。 二、数据修正的"潜规则"：大选年的数字游戏？ 当然，特朗普说的并非毫无道理，在大选期间虚标数据，这在美国是老惯例了。 特朗普的指控并非空穴来风。历史数据显示，美国非农数据在大选年常出现"异常波动"，且极端高估多 出现在大选年，而极端低估多出现在总统上任首年。例如，2024年3月数据被高估81.8万，恰好发生在 大选前；2021年拜登上任首年，数据被上修190万，创下历史纪录。 这种现象被专家解读为"预期管理"。毕竟大选年高估数据可提升选 ...

作为在成都钢材市场摸爬滚打五年的行业观察者，我今天在青白江仓库验货时，发现一个反常现象：明明钢价整体下跌，但仓库管理员老张却悄悄囤了三十 吨薄壁无缝管。"这批38*3规格的，你看行情表就知道，全成都独一份涨价的！"他神秘地眨眨眼。这揭示了当前市场最容易被忽视的真相——在普跌行情 中，细分品类正上演着冰火两重天的分化戏码。 立即致电：028-8310-1028 #四川盛世钢联国际贸易有限公司# 解决一站式西南地区全品类钢材供应方案！ 一、成都钢价跳水全景：数据背后的结构性分化 8月1日成都市场交出了一份"跌多涨少"的成绩单： 领跌品种：螺旋管（219*6mm）周跌20元至3860元/吨，槽钢单日最高跌幅达60元 抗跌品种：薄壁无缝管（38*3）逆势上涨10元至5830元/吨，不锈钢焊管维持5200-5300元高位 成交密码：冶控钢厂Φ6螺纹钢出现38**51002等特殊编号资源，暗示部分规格存在定向让利 这种分化背后是供需矛盾的精准投射。成都青白江仓库的最新数据显示： 大口径资源占比升至35%，周转周期延长至45天 薄壁管库存告急，部分规格溢价超过常规价5% 本地钢厂直供比例突破40%，传统贸易商被迫在"高库存 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the fifth week of July, futures sentiment cooled down, and spot prices mostly had small month - on - month declines, but prices were still higher than at the end of June. Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. Container shipping prices continued to fall, and port cargo volume decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year. In the industrial sector, the incremental measures from the Politburo meeting in July were slightly weaker than expected, causing futures sentiment to cool and investment product prices to decline. In the investment sector, typhoon and rainfall affected construction activities, leading to a continued decline in cement prices. In the real estate sector, the end - of - month sales rush for new homes was evident, while second - hand home sales continued to decline, in line with seasonality [4][34]. - For the bond market, short - term implementation of anti - involution policies, price transmission, and the impact of production control on industrial growth are worthy of attention. "Broad credit" disturbances may increase compared to July. Externally, the results of China - US economic and trade negotiations were in line with expectations, and the market reaction was muted. Export resilience remains, but its elasticity is decreasing, and the weakening of "rush exports" may gradually materialize. Internally, the strong futures market last week driven by major infrastructure projects and "anti - involution" led to spot price increases. This week, futures sentiment cooled, and spot demand weakened due to weather conditions. Although industrial product prices generally corrected, they were still higher than before July. In the future, price increase elasticity may be limited in the short term, but the recovery trend is hard to disprove, which may support equity sentiment. Urban renewal may accelerate, and the implementation of policy - based financial instruments is expected. August is the policy effect verification stage, increasing the importance of data observation [4][35]. Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices reversed from a decline to an increase. The wholesale price index of 200 agricultural products and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.05% and 0.03% month - on - month respectively. The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.84% month - on - month, while vegetable prices rose, and the decline in fruit prices narrowed [4][10]. Import - Export related - Container shipping prices continued to decline. The CCFI index decreased by 2.3% month - on - month, and the SCFI decreased by 2.6% month - on - month. From July 21st to July 27th, port container throughput and cargo throughput decreased by 6.5% and 4.3% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 11.5% and 13.3% year - on - year. The BDI index decreased by 3.1% month - on - month, and the CDFI index increased by 0.2% month - on - month [12]. Industrial related - The price of thermal coal continued to rise. The price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.4% month - on - month with a narrowing increase. The price of rebar reversed from an increase to a decrease, with a 0.26% month - on - month decline in spot price. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 6.1% month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline widened to 5.7%. Copper prices decreased month - on - month, affected by the Fed's cautious attitude towards interest rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar. Glass prices also reversed from an increase to a decrease as futures market sentiment cooled [14][18][19]. Investment related - Cement prices continued to weaken, with a 1.40% month - on - month decline in the national cement price index and a narrowing decline. In the real estate sector, from July 25th to July 31st, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities increased by 25% month - on - month but decreased by 15.4% year - on - year. The transaction area of second - hand homes in 17 cities decreased by 4.6% month - on - month but increased by 5.1% year - on - year [20][29]. Consumption - From July 1st to July 27th, passenger car retail sales decreased by 19% month - on - month compared to the same period in June but increased by 9% year - on - year. From July 21st to July 27th, retail sales decreased by 30% month - on - month and increased by 5% year - on - year. Brent and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.8% and 3.3% month - on - month respectively, boosted by factors such as a trade agreement between the US and Europe and supply - side constraints [30].

（文章来源：中国经营报） 受访专家认为，今年以来，中央和部委层面多次强调治理低价无序竞争，中央政治局会议再次强调这一 问题，显示出国家"反内卷"的决心。 远东资信首席宏观研究员张林对《中国经营报》记者表示，随着光伏、锂电、新能源汽车等领域出现 的"内卷式"竞争，本次会议延续了7月的中央财经委会议精神，进一步强调要发展新质生产力也要符合 市场秩序，特别是要通过全国统一大市场建设，减少各地的低价竞争与同质化投资现象。 在粤开证券首席经济学家罗志恒看来，当前"反内卷"不能"一刀切"。本轮"内卷式"覆盖的行业更广，并 非主要集中在钢铁、煤炭等上游行业，同样也出现在新能源车、锂电池、光伏等下游行业。"基于这些 情况，我建议'反内卷'要精细化分类施策。一方面，对于传统产业，严控新增产能，鼓励企业进行错峰 生产或自愿减产。另一方面，对于新兴产业，由于其技术迭代速度较快，不宜采取'大刀阔斧'的行政干 预，要提高对企业创新的支持力度，帮助企业突破技术周期，同时支持行业进行并购重组，畅通市场化 退出机制。"罗志恒说。 财信金控首席经济学家伍超明认为，破"内卷"、去产能，是让低效产能出局，而不是让某一类企业出 局，其目的是激发所有 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, driven by the overall price - rising atmosphere, steel mills and agents had smooth sales, and the inventory digestion speed accelerated. Currently, the inventory of Qing - series agents has significantly decreased. With steel mills' recent suspension of distribution for the 300 - series, agent spot resources are becoming scarce, especially in hot - rolled specifications. Traders have relatively sufficient inventory due to previous active restocking. Since July, stimulated by the "anti - involution" policy, the restocking enthusiasm in the trading sector has been high, but limited by the actual terminal demand, the social inventory remains at a high level. The nickel - iron market is dull, with steel mills and traders mostly adopting a wait - and - see attitude, while high - nickel - iron producers have a strong willingness to hold prices. It is expected that with the production increase of steel mills in August, the demand for high - nickel iron will increase month - on - month, and the oversupply situation of nickel iron is expected to improve. Overall, the stainless - steel price may maintain a volatile pattern, and attention should be paid to the suppression effect of the 13130 pressure level on the price [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Key Points Summary**: - **Periodic and Spot Market**: On August 2nd, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [11]. - **Supply**: In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11%. In June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [11]. - **Demand**: From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55%. In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [11]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week. This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [11]. - **Cost**: This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [11]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [13]. 3.2. Periodic and Spot Market - On August 1st, the average price of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in Wuxi was 12,900 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 910 yuan/nickel, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; the average price of scrap stainless steel was 9,150 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract on Friday afternoon was 12,840 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [17]. - The market quotation of Foshan Delong refers to a premium of about - 190 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract; the market quotation of Wuxi Hongwang refers to a premium of about - 140 yuan (+ 75) compared with the main contract. The disk position was 203,902 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 13.45% [20]. - In terms of monthly spreads, the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 2 was reported at - 45 (- 15), and the spread between consecutive contracts 1 and 3 was reported at - 100 (- 45) [23]. 3.3. Supply End - In July, the domestic cold - rolled stainless - steel production plan was 1.5001 million tons. In June, the crude - steel output was 2.8711 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 145,900 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June was 8.11% [27]. - According to MYSTEEL sample statistics, in June, the estimated crude - steel output of the 300 - series stainless steel was 1.4262 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%; the cold - rolled output of the 300 - series was 706,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.07% [30]. - It is estimated that in June, the monthly stainless - steel output in Indonesia was 360,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00%. In June, China's imports of stainless steel from Indonesia reached 85,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.72% [33]. - In June, the net export volume of stainless steel was 280,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.24%. From January to June, the cumulative net export was 1.0809 million tons, a 65.78% increase compared with the same period last year [36]. 3.4. Demand End - From January to June 2024 in China, the commercial housing sales area was 4.585055 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 3.50%; in June, the single - month commercial housing sales area was 1.053536 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 6.55% [40]. - In June, the year - on - year growth rates of refrigerators, household freezers, washing machines, and air conditioners were 18.9%, 4.8%, 3%, and 16.5% respectively; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fuel processing industry in June was + 14.4% [43]. - In June, the output of elevators, escalators, and lifts was 137,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 10.48% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.16%. In June, automobile sales were 2.9045 million units, a month - on - month increase of 8.12% and a year - on - year increase of 13.83% [46]. 3.5. Inventory - This week, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.1112 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%; the inventory of futures warehouse receipts this week was 103,000 tons, a decrease of 368 tons compared with last week [50]. - This week, the social inventories of the 200/300/400 - series stainless steel were 192,700 tons, 676,700 tons, and 241,800 tons respectively, among which the inventory of the 300 - series increased by 1.00% month - on - month. This week, the floating quantity of stainless steel was 43,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.59%, and the unloading quantity was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.80% [53]. 3.6. Cost End - In June, the nickel - ore import volume was 4.3466 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.79% and a year - on - year decrease of 8.47%. Currently, the nickel - ore quotation for Ni:1.5% nickel ore is 56.0 US dollars/wet ton, and the port inventory is 9.9436 million wet tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% [57]. - This week, the ex - factory price of 7% - 10% nickel iron in Shandong was 915 yuan/nickel, an increase of 0 yuan/nickel compared with last week. Iron plants in Fujian are currently losing 116 yuan/nickel [60]. - This week, the chromium - ore quotation was 55 yuan/dry ton, an increase of 0.5 yuan/dry ton compared with last week; the high - carbon ferrochrome quotation was 7,900 yuan/50 - base ton, an increase of 100 yuan/50 - base ton compared with last week. In June, the high - carbon ferrochrome output was 775,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.53% [63]. - Currently, the gross profit of the self - produced high - nickel - iron production line is - 827 yuan/ton, and the profit rate reaches - 6.02%. With the warming of downstream consumption sentiment, the situation of steel mills has improved [66].

钢市情绪降温，回 归现实逻辑 螺纹钢周报 2025/08/02 (黑色研究员) 0775-23375155 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03133652 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 赵航 (联系人) zhaoh3@wkqh.cn 周度评估及策略推荐 供给端 期现市场 需求端 利润 库存 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 本周铁水日均产量为240.71万吨，较上周环比下降1.52万吨，铁水产量维持在相对高位。利润方面，华东地区螺纹高炉利润维持231元/吨 附近，即期利润持续回升；谷电利润为50元/吨，利润水平与上周基本持平。 ◆ 需求端：本周螺纹表需203万吨，前值217万吨，环比-6.5%，同比-6.0%，累计需求6453万吨，同比-4.3%。 投机性需求降低，螺纹需求回落明显。 ◆ 进出口：钢坯06月进口15.5万吨。 ◆ 库存：本周螺纹社会库存384万吨，前值373万吨，环比+3.0%，同比-32.2%，厂库162万吨，前值166万吨，环比-2.1%，同比-16.3%。 合计库存546，前值539，环比+1.4%，同比-28.1%。 螺纹钢库存出现小幅累库。 ◆ 利润:铁水成本 ...

Group 1 - The European Union (EU) is criticizing China for "overcapacity" in industries like new energy and steel while simultaneously demanding that China lift export restrictions on rare earth minerals, highlighting a double standard in their approach [3][8][9] - China holds approximately 87% of the world's rare earth resources, which are essential for various high-tech applications, indicating a significant leverage in global supply chains [5][6] - China's response to the EU's demands emphasizes the importance of regulating rare earth exports to protect national resources, asserting that market demand will dictate production capacity rather than external pressures [9][10] Group 2 - In 2022, China's exports of new energy vehicles to the EU increased by 35%, suggesting that European consumers prefer Chinese products despite claims of overcapacity [8] - The EU's request for China to take on "great power responsibility" for global supply chain stability is seen as hypocritical, given past instances where the EU did not advocate for such responsibilities when benefiting from cheap Chinese rare earths [3][6] - The current situation reflects a shift in power dynamics, with China now in a position to negotiate from strength regarding its rare earth resources, contrasting with previous times when it faced technology restrictions from the EU [10]