Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The hot-rolled coil futures market is in a stage of "weak reality, strong expectation" with short-term price pressure due to inventory accumulation and weak demand, but limited downside space supported by improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish, and the pressure around the 30-day and 60-day moving averages should be monitored in the medium term [6]. Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - **期货价格**: The main contract of hot-rolled coil futures had a decrease of 791 lots in open interest on Friday, with a trading volume of 277,047 lots, a contraction compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,197 yuan, the high was 3,220 yuan, and it closed at 3,215 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or 0.25%. The short-term moving average fell back to the 5-day moving average, and there was still pressure from the 30-day and 60-day moving averages [1]. - **现货价格**: The price of hot-rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3,230 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **基差**: The basis between futures and spot was 15 yuan [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The current output was 3.0961 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 135,200 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 2,000 tons. In 2026, the output was slightly lower than the same period from 2023 - 2025, indicating that steel mills maintained production around the Spring Festival but actively reduced production capacity to cope with weakening demand [4]. - **Demand**: The current apparent demand was 2.6837 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 539,600 tons and a month-on-month decrease of 13,000 tons. The significant year-on-year decline was due to the seasonal impact of manufacturing shutdowns and stagnant terminal procurement around the Spring Festival, and the slight month-on-month decline reflected a weaker post - holiday demand recovery rhythm this year [4]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 947,800 tons, a month-on-month increase of 14,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 33,400 tons. Social inventory was 3.5737 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 169,000 tons and a year-on-year increase of 134,100 tons. Total inventory was 4.5215 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 183,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 588,800 tons. Although the month-on-month increase was significant, the year-on-year decrease was still large, indicating less inventory pressure than in previous years [4]. - **库销比**: The current inventory - to - sales ratio was 11.79 days, a significant year-on-year increase to 2.34. A high inventory - to - sales ratio means that the current inventory level is much higher than the demand digestion capacity, with a serious supply - demand mismatch, which will suppress the rebound space of hot-rolled coil prices until demand recovers substantially [5]. - **Policy**: Domestically, with the upcoming launch of the "14th Five - Year Plan" in 2026 and the approaching of the Two Sessions, market expectations for policies such as infrastructure investment, equipment renewal, and trade - in are rising, but the actual project implementation rhythm after the holiday is unclear. Internationally, the US imposed a 10% tariff on imported goods starting from February 24, raising concerns about global trade frictions and potentially suppressing export - oriented steel products. The People's Bank of China conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan 6 - month repurchase on February 13, releasing medium - and long - term liquidity and providing marginal support to market sentiment [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Positive factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the "14th Five - Year Plan" and infrastructure investment) [6]. - **Negative factors**: Slow demand realization, drag from the raw material end, inventory accumulation suppressing prices, and increased macro - level disturbances [6]. Short - term View Summary - On Friday, the 05 hot-rolled coil contract first increased in open interest and declined, then decreased in open interest and rebounded, showing intraday consolidation. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the pressure around the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. It is recommended to be cautiously bearish. The current hot-rolled coil futures are in a game stage of "weak reality, strong expectation". The fundamentals are dominated by inventory accumulation and weak demand, putting short - term pressure on prices, but improved export profits, steel mill production resilience, and policy expectations provide bottom support, limiting the downside space [6].

证券日报网讯2月27日，宝钢股份（600019）在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司高度重视市值管 理工作，已制定系统化举措推动价值回归，包括制定市值管理制度、将中期分红正式纳入公司章程，承 诺2024~2026年每年分红不低于每股0.2元、开展资本市场交流、推进ESG管治提升等。公司将根据监管 要求，结合公司实际情况，制定相应的贯彻落实措施，持续优化市值管理策略，加强与资本市场的沟 通，提升公司透明度，力争使公司市值能够合理反映其内在价值。 ...

证券日报网讯 2月27日，宝钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司每年对日出口少量钢材，对 日政策波动对公司整体业绩影响较小。宝钢股份会严格执行国家政策，谨慎选择合作伙伴。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

韩国热轧板卷反倾销调查达成价格承诺 中钢协对此结果表示欢迎和支持 广告等商务合作，请点击这里 中新网北京2月27日电 26日晚，中国钢铁工业协会发布关于韩国热轧板卷反倾销调查达成价格承诺的声 明。 2026年2月23日，韩国在对中国的热轧板卷反倾销案终裁中，宣布与中方就价格承诺方案达成一致。声 明指出，中韩两国不仅是水域相连的邻国，也互为利益深度交融的重要伙伴。在钢铁领域，中国与韩国 同样互为重要的投资和贸易伙伴，两国钢铁行业、主要钢铁企业沟通渠道通畅，不仅较少针对对方发起 贸易救济调查，在调查发起后也能本着互谅互让、相互尊重的原则，使用价格承诺的方式解决争端。韩 国H型钢反倾销调查、中厚板反倾销调查以及我国不锈钢热轧板卷反倾销调查、取向电工钢反倾销调查 等案件均以此方式结案。 声明称，韩国热轧板卷反倾销调查于2025年3月4日正式发起，其涉案产品热轧板卷广泛应用于建筑业和 下游制造业，也是冷轧板卷、镀锌板卷等产品的基材，中韩热轧板卷贸易对韩国相关产业供应链的稳定 起到了关键作用。因此，本次调查的合理解决也是推动解决后续韩国镀锌板卷反倾销等多起调查的重要 先决条件。 声明称，作为中国钢铁行业的代表，中国钢铁工 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 2月27日，宝钢股份在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司致力于研发和生产符合当前 和未来需求的产品以及具备特殊性能的材料，在新能源、核电、深海、交运、电力等场景下发挥大国重 器作用。 ...

Group 1 - The company announced a projected total operating revenue of 2,309,124,219.70 yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 12.92% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company is expected to be 78,061,172.24 yuan in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 37.91% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Nanjing Steel's subsidiary, Jin'an Mining, is a comprehensive mining company with strong resource endowment, capable of producing iron ore and iron concentrate with a focus on new materials development [2] Group 1: Company Overview - Jin'an Mining integrates mining, ore dressing, and the production and sales of iron concentrate, with an iron concentrate grade exceeding 68% [2] - The existing Caolou Mine has an annual capacity of 3 million tons for iron ore extraction and 1 million tons for iron concentrate production [2] Group 2: Resource Development - In May 2025, Jin'an Mining successfully acquired exploration rights for the Fanqiao Mine, which has an annual capacity of 3.5 million tons for iron ore extraction and 1.04 million tons for iron concentrate production [2] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Jin'an Mining has established the first national production line for 9-series permanent magnet ferrite ultra-pure iron concentrate pre-burned materials, achieving key technological breakthroughs in the field of permanent magnet materials [2] - The company has successfully mass-produced 6-series permanent magnet ferrite pre-burned materials and nano-grade iron red, enhancing its research and development capabilities for new energy supporting materials [2]

Core Viewpoint - Baosteel Co., Ltd. is advancing its first overseas greenfield project in Saudi Arabia, which is also the world's first green low-carbon full-process thick plate factory project, aimed at supplying the Middle East and North Africa markets [2] Group 1 - The Saudi thick plate factory will serve various downstream industries, including oil and gas, marine engineering, shipbuilding, pressure vessels, energy storage, wind power, and construction [2] - The joint venture for the project was established in 2024 and is being cautiously advanced, with the specific production timeline to be determined based on actual conditions [2] - The company will provide timely updates regarding the project's progress and relevant information [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that in March, the overall A-share market is relatively flat, while small-cap and micro-cap styles show significant excess returns. The average absolute monthly return of the Tonghuashun All A (weighted) index in March over the past 10 years is 0.4%, which is relatively limited. However, small-cap and micro-cap styles outperform the large-cap style and the All A index respectively [7][8][10]. - In terms of industry performance, the report highlights that the agriculture, forestry, beauty, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to outperform, while steel, petrochemicals, and non-bank financials lag behind. The average monthly excess returns for these industries in March over the past 10 years show a clear distinction [7][8][13][15]. Group 2 - The report provides detailed data on the calendar effect for different styles and industries, indicating that small-cap stocks significantly outperform large-cap stocks, and micro-cap stocks outperform the All A index in March [10][11]. - The report includes specific numerical data showing that the average excess return for small-cap stocks in March is 6.5%, while for micro-cap stocks, it is notably higher, indicating strong performance in these segments [10][11]. - The report also presents a comparative analysis of industry indices, revealing that sectors such as agriculture, beauty, and pharmaceuticals have higher average monthly excess returns compared to sectors like steel and petrochemicals, which show negative returns [13][15].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is positive, with major indices rising across the board at the beginning of the Year of the Horse [1] - In February, there is significant divergence in index performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index showing gains, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices recorded losses [2][4][6][8] - The market is witnessing a shift in hotspots, with traditional industries like coal, steel, and chemicals showing strong performance, contrasting with the underperformance of technology stocks [10][12][13] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a significant drop of 2.48% on the first trading day of February, but rebounded to close at 4162.88 points, marking a 1.09% increase for the month [2][4] - The Shenzhen Component Index also saw a recovery, closing at 14495.09 points with a monthly increase of 2.04% [4] - The ChiNext Index and STAR Market indices both faced declines, with the ChiNext down 1.08% and the STAR Market down 1.42% in February [6][8] Group 3 - The energy sector was a major driver of the market's rise, with the China Energy Index increasing by 4.84%, and oil and gas resources up by 10% [12][13] - Traditional sectors such as coal and steel showed remarkable gains, with coal indices rising by 9% and steel indices by 8% in February [13] - The financial sector, despite its weight in the market, underperformed, with the China Securities Financial Index down 2.22%, and the insurance theme index down 7.29% [12][13]